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[
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
"probability": 0.03793477189870924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
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},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
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},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
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},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
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{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
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},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
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{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
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{
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{
"name": "Michael Gove",
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{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
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{
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{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
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{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
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{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
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{
"name": "Tobias Ellwood",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Steve Baker",
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{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
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{
"name": "Esther McVey",
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{
"name": "Philip Hammond",
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{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
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}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Male",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Female",
"probability": 0.22630578437584864,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
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{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
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{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
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{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
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{
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{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
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{
"name": "Andrea Nahles",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Daniel Gunther",
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{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
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{
"name": "Wolfgang Schäuble",
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{
"name": "Julia Klockner",
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{
"name": "Heiko Maas",
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{
"name": "Malu Dreyer",
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{
"name": "Peter Altmaier",
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{
"name": "Ralf Stegner",
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{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
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{
"name": "Sahra Wagenknecht",
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{
"name": "Martin Sonneborn",
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{
"name": "Markus Söder",
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{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
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{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
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{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
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}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
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{
"name": "Derek Mackay",
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{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
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{
"name": "Stewart Hosie",
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{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
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{
"name": "Shona Robison",
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{
"name": "John Swinney",
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{
"name": "Keith Brown",
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{
"name": "Joanna Cherry",
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{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
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{
"name": "Alex Salmond",
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{
"name": "Michael Matheson",
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{
"name": "Tommy Sheppard",
"probability": null
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{
"name": "Angela Constance",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Roseanna Cunningham",
"probability": null
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"probability": 0.009962143853357242,
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{
"probability": 0.00009962143853357243,
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},
{
"name": "2021",
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},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
"probability": 0.881649731022116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05664798777381558,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9433520122261844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.015382248884786958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nigel Farage",
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{
"name": "Jo Swinson",
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{
"name": "Keir Starmer",
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{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
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{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
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{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
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{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
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{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
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{
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{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
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{
"name": "Dominic Grieve",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
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},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
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{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
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{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
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{
"name": "Tom Watson",
"probability": 0.01668974003999385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
"probability": 0.029610829103214893,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0,
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{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
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},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
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},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
"probability": 0,
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},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
"probability": 0.0384556222119674,
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},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
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},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.03660975234579296,
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},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ken Clarke",
"probability": 0.04660821412090448,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harriet Harman",
"probability": 0.007691124442393479,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margaret Beckett",
"probability": 0.05699123211813568,
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},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.1538224888478696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
"probability": 0,
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}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "NY-22 Congressional District Winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.6297324817180413,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.3702675182819587,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2020",
"probability": 0.04608719697667988,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
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},
{
"name": "2022",
"probability": 0.09217439395335976,
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},
{
"name": "2023",
"probability": 0.16462346760070054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
"probability": 0.6313024241865609,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Year of next Scottish referendum",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2020",
"probability": 0.07764344119085889,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
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},
{
"name": "2022",
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{
"name": "2023",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.07564130673098006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.05481254110940583,
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},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
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},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
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{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
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{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
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{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
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{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
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{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
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{
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{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
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{
"name": "George Eustice",
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},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
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},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alister Jack",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Hart",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Baroness Evans of Bowes Park",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Oliver Dowden",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
"probability": 0.04768691076518307,
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}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Party to get the most seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4190312410432789,
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},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.527849431546766,
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},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.05311932740995509,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25555450505814503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.744445494941855,
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}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election in Hungary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2022 or earlier",
"probability": 0.3964413291096583,
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},
{
"name": "2023",
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{
"name": "2024",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.8492647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.10473227752639516,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.032522624434389136,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.013480392156862742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Baroin",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olivier Faure",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Marie Bigard",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean Lassalle",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joachim Son-Forget",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernard Cazeneuve",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ségolène Royal",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florian Philippot",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Edouard Philippe",
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}
],
"description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"stars": 2
},
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"title": "Macron first round vote share",
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"title": "President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment",
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{
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"title": "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress",
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]
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