quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity
52950ccd39
metaforecast/data/predictit-questions.json

4040 lines
211 KiB
JSON
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters

This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.

[
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.8316831683168316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.16831683168316833,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5238095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4380952380952381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5490196078431373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.45098039215686275,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.5784313725490196,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.4215686274509804,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "22 or fewer",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
"probability": 0.7685185185185184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.\nDetermination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.\nMembers of the House of Representatives who are \"delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lloyd Austin",
"probability": 0.9252336448598131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tammy Duckworth",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michele Flournoy",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jack Reed",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeh Johnson",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Miller",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "William McRaven",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "E. Sherwood-Randall",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
"probability": 0.6315789473684208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenny Yang",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julie Su",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Spriggs",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andy Levin",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sara Nelson",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Perez",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eugene Scalia",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seth Harris",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharon Block",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abby Finkenauer",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Patrick Gaspard",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Lu",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rahm Emanuel",
"probability": 0.026315789473684202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Merrick Garland",
"probability": 0.3333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Barr",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Jones",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sally Yates",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Becerra",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Perez",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julián Castro",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Preet Bharara",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Deval Patrick",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Monaco",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeh Johnson",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeffrey Rosen",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stacey Abrams",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Janet Yellen",
"probability": 0.9252336448598131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Mnuchin",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lael Brainard",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raphael Bostic",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roger Ferguson",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mellody Hobson",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gina Raimondo",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcia Fudge",
"probability": 0.6399999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keisha Lance Bottoms",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jane Castor",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alvin Brown",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Bass",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diane Yentel",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maurice Jones",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Carson",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Garcetti",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:13 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Becerra",
"probability": 0.29411764705882354,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pramila Jayapal",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle L. Grisham",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeffrey Zeints",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Bass",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vivek Murthy",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandy Cohen",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kessler",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alex Azar",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Hargan",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlie Baker",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gina Raimondo",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stacey Stewart",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Gina Raimondo",
"probability": 0.6727272727272725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Meg Whitman",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ray Washburne",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Linda McMahon",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mellody Hobson",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wilbur Ross",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Steyer",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gene Sperling",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neera Tanden",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Podesta",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heather Boushey",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ursula Burns",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Susan Helper",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rohit Chopra",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Indra Nooyi",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Ng",
"probability": 0.018181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:14 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Alejandro Mayorkas",
"probability": 0.9519230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Becerra",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Val Demings",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stephen Miller",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Monaco",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jennifer Granholm",
"probability": 0.8775510204081631,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ernest Moniz",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "E. Sherwood-Randall",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Arun Majumdar",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jay Inslee",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Brouillette",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Reicher",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:21 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Deb Haaland",
"probability": 0.3636363636363637,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Bullock",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Udall",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martin Heinrich",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raul Grijalva",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Bernhardt",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Connor",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carol Moseley Braun",
"probability": 0.09090909090909093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "William Burns",
"probability": 0.3125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Donilon",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Avril Haines",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Morell",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gina Haspel",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elissa Slotkin",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Cohen",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Susan Gordon",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darrell Blocker",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vincent Stewart",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeh Johnson",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Monaco",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:23 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Miguel Cardona",
"probability": 0.8088235294117646,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lily Eskelsen Garcia",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Randi Weingarten",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "L. Darling-Hammond",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Gutmann",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Betsy DeVos",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jahana Hayes",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tony Thurmond",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Freeman A. Hrabowski",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonja Santelises",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eduardo Padrón",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sean Spiller",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Leslie Fenwick",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharon Contreras",
"probability": 0.014705882352941173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.9082568807339448,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Garcetti",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rahm Emmanuel",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Earl Blumenauer",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elaine Chao",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Beth Osborne",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Granholm",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Feinberg",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kim",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Perez",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Polly Trottenberg",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Tom Vilsack",
"probability": 0.8999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heidi Heitkamp",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marcia Fudge",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cheri Bustos",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonny Perdue",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chellie Pingree",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Theresa Greenfield",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Arturo Rodriguez",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathleen Merrigan",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Ross",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Bullock",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Michael Regan",
"probability": 0.7755102040816325,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Nichols",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jay Inslee",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heather McTeer Toney",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Wheeler",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Esty",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Collin O'Mara",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Revesz",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mustafa Santiago Ali",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gina McCarthy",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brenda Mallory",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Garcetti",
"probability": 0.020408163265306117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Denis McDonough",
"probability": 0.9428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Kander",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tammy Duckworth",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert McDonald",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Wilkie",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Patrick J. Murphy",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Avril Haines",
"probability": 0.9611650485436893,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Susan Gordon",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Monaco",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angus King",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Ratcliffe",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Neera Tanden",
"probability": 0.33333333333333337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bruce Reed",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann O'Leary",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Zients",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Deese",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Russell Vought",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Jones",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shalanda Young",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gene Sperling",
"probability": 0.08333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Katherine Tai",
"probability": 0.19047619047619044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Gomez",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nelson Cunningham",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thea Mei Lee",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Wessel",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Beth Baltzan",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sherrod Brown",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron Kind",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cedric Richmond",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Lighthizer",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rahm Emanuel",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Miriam Sapiro",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Hillman",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Todd Tucker",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cathy Feingold",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Perriello",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Newhouse",
"probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.8712871287128713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.417391304347826,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
"probability": 0.14782608695652175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
"probability": 0.0608695652173913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
"probability": 0.0608695652173913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Donovan",
"probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
"probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
"probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
"probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Menchaca",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Loree Sutton",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Curtis Sliwa",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.6039603960396039,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.39603960396039606,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.5544554455445545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.44554455445544555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Samantha Power",
"probability": 0.857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ertharin Cousin",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Schrayer",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frederick Barton",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Konyndyk",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barsa",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ami Bera",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gayle Smith",
"probability": 0.02040816326530612,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\nCreated On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)\nNote: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
"probability": 0.8877551020408163,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
"probability": 0.07142857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer McClellan",
"probability": 0.030612244897959183,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Fairfax",
"probability": 0.010204081632653062,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nShould no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "23 or fewer",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24 or 25",
"probability": 0.037383177570093455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26 or 27",
"probability": 0.102803738317757,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28 or 29",
"probability": 0.21495327102803738,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or 31",
"probability": 0.205607476635514,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "32 or 33",
"probability": 0.18691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
"probability": 0.102803738317757,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36 or 37",
"probability": 0.05607476635514018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
"probability": 0.037383177570093455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or more",
"probability": 0.037383177570093455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
"probability": 0.41666666666666663,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
"probability": 0.39814814814814814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
"probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kirk Cox",
"probability": 0.5428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Snyder",
"probability": 0.24761904761904763,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Chase",
"probability": 0.12380952380952381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Glenn Youngkin",
"probability": 0.05714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neil Chatterjee",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmett Hanger",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Stanley",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.17647058823529405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.12605042016806717,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
"probability": 0.11764705882352938,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
"probability": 0.0672268907563025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
"probability": 0.0672268907563025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.05042016806722687,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.05042016806722687,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
"probability": 0.05042016806722687,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
"probability": 0.042016806722689065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
"probability": 0.042016806722689065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
"probability": 0.042016806722689065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.042016806722689065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
"probability": 0.042016806722689065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
"probability": 0.03361344537815125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
"probability": 0.025210084033613436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
"probability": 0.025210084033613436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
"probability": 0.39583333333333326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.36458333333333326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.07291666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.062499999999999986,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.04166666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.031249999999999993,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.031249999999999993,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "33 or fewer",
"probability": 0.08411214953271028,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
"probability": 0.09345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36 or 37",
"probability": 0.1588785046728972,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
"probability": 0.21495327102803738,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or 41",
"probability": 0.2336448598130841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "42 or 43",
"probability": 0.13084112149532712,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "44 or more",
"probability": 0.08411214953271028,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
"probability": 0.5393258426966291,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
"probability": 0.3033707865168539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
"probability": 0.07865168539325842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
"probability": 0.06741573033707864,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
"probability": 0.011235955056179773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
"probability": 0.5714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.05714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.0857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.09523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
"probability": 0.09523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
"probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
"probability": 0.5353535353535354,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.050505050505050504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.0707070707070707,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.0909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.0909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.0808080808080808,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.0404040404040404,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
"probability": 0.0202020202020202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
"probability": 0.0101010101010101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
"probability": 0.0101010101010101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Granholm be confirmed to position of Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "61 or fewer",
"probability": 0.8155339805825242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 64",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 or more",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
"probability": 0.5050505050505051,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Mandel",
"probability": 0.22222222222222224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
"probability": 0.08080808080808081,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
"probability": 0.06060606060606061,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.04040404040404041,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
"probability": 0.020202020202020204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "58 or fewer",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "59 to 61",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 64",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.038834951456310676,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.08737864077669902,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.1553398058252427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.18446601941747573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 or more",
"probability": 0.4368932038834951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"58 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"83 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "4 or fewer",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5 or 6",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "7 or 8",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "9 or 10",
"probability": 0.2545454545454546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "11 or 12",
"probability": 0.45454545454545453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13 or 14",
"probability": 0.1909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15 or 16",
"probability": 0.045454545454545456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17 or 18",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19 or 20",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21 or more",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "70 or fewer",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.09259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
"probability": 0.17592592592592593,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
"probability": 0.24074074074074073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 to 94",
"probability": 0.23148148148148145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "95 or more",
"probability": 0.19444444444444442,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.\nA vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "64 or fewer",
"probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
"probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.18269230769230768,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.14423076923076922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.14423076923076922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
"probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 or more",
"probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Cardona be confirmed to position of Secretary of Education in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"64 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"89 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Julia Letlow",
"probability": 0.9514563106796116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candy Christophe",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Davis",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Allen Guillory Sr.",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chad Conerly",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Horace Melton III",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Lansden",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jaycee Magnuson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vinny Mendoza",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Pannell",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sancha Smith",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Errol Victor Sr.",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Troy Carter",
"probability": 0.6521739130434782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Peterson",
"probability": 0.19130434782608693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gary Chambers",
"probability": 0.05217391304347825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Belden Batiste",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claston Bernard",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harold John",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Johnson",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Kelly",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Lirette",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mindy McConnell",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenette Porter",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lenín Moreno",
"probability": 0.8058252427184466,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolás Maduro",
"probability": 0.038834951456310676,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Ortega",
"probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sebastián Piñera",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iván Duque",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. M. López Obrador",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Fernández",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luis Arce",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francisco Sagasti",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Regan be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Hassan Rouhani",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
"probability": 0.27358490566037735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
"probability": 0.11320754716981131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Jong-un",
"probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Morrison",
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Moon Jae-in",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Narendra Modi",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joko Widodo",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.41904761904761906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
"probability": 0.09183673469387756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.07142857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.09183673469387756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
"probability": 0.14285714285714288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
"probability": 0.163265306122449,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
"probability": 0.1836734693877551,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
"probability": 0.14285714285714288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
"probability": 0.061224489795918366,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
"probability": 0.04081632653061225,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
"probability": 0.010204081632653062,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.1111111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 53",
"probability": 0.40404040404040403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54 to 57",
"probability": 0.303030303030303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 to 61",
"probability": 0.0808080808080808,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 65",
"probability": 0.0404040404040404,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66 to 69",
"probability": 0.0202020202020202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "70 to 73",
"probability": 0.0101010101010101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 77",
"probability": 0.0101010101010101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "78 to 81",
"probability": 0.0101010101010101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "82 or more",
"probability": 0.0101010101010101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"82 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Alvin Bragg",
"probability": 0.3999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tali Weinstein",
"probability": 0.1789473684210526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
"probability": 0.1789473684210526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eliza Orlins",
"probability": 0.08421052631578946,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Lang",
"probability": 0.05263157894736841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Quart",
"probability": 0.05263157894736841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyrus Vance",
"probability": 0.03157894736842105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Florence",
"probability": 0.010526315789473682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Crotty",
"probability": 0.010526315789473682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
"probability": 0.25999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
"probability": 0.15999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abiy Ahmed",
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
"probability": 0.08999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
"probability": 0.06999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
"probability": 0.059999999999999984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Kagame",
"probability": 0.04999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
"probability": 0.029999999999999992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "12 or fewer",
"probability": 0.01801801801801802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13",
"probability": 0.00900900900900901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14",
"probability": 0.00900900900900901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15",
"probability": 0.00900900900900901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16",
"probability": 0.00900900900900901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17",
"probability": 0.01801801801801802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18",
"probability": 0.01801801801801802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19",
"probability": 0.03603603603603604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20",
"probability": 0.08108108108108109,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21",
"probability": 0.1711711711711712,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22",
"probability": 0.2792792792792793,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23 or more",
"probability": 0.3423423423423424,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Susan Davies",
"probability": 0.348314606741573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Renata Hesse",
"probability": 0.24719101123595502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Terrell McSweeny",
"probability": 0.1685393258426966,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jonathan Kanter",
"probability": 0.15730337078651685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
"probability": 0.022471910112359546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Deborah Feinstein",
"probability": 0.011235955056179773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
"probability": 0.011235955056179773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dave Gelfand",
"probability": 0.011235955056179773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steven Sunshine",
"probability": 0.011235955056179773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Leibowitz",
"probability": 0.011235955056179773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrés Arauz",
"probability": 0.7352941176470588,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guillermo Lasso",
"probability": 0.2549019607843137,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yaku Pérez",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.09523809523809522,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 52",
"probability": 0.2952380952380952,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53 to 55",
"probability": 0.2666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56 to 58",
"probability": 0.16190476190476188,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "59 to 61",
"probability": 0.06666666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 64",
"probability": 0.038095238095238085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
"probability": 0.028571428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
"probability": 0.009523809523809521,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
"probability": 0.009523809523809521,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 or more",
"probability": 0.028571428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"74 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
"probability": 0.33663366336633666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
"probability": 0.1188118811881188,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.10891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.0891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau",
"probability": 0.0891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
"probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
"probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
"probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Tim Ryan",
"probability": 0.6914893617021276,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Acton",
"probability": 0.23404255319148934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nan Whaley",
"probability": 0.0425531914893617,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emilia Sykes",
"probability": 0.02127659574468085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joyce Beatty",
"probability": 0.010638297872340425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "John Fetterman",
"probability": 0.6874999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conor Lamb",
"probability": 0.14583333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Madeleine Dean",
"probability": 0.062499999999999986,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
"probability": 0.062499999999999986,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Sestak",
"probability": 0.04166666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "62 or fewer",
"probability": 0.07142857142857142,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 or 64",
"probability": 0.03061224489795918,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 or 66",
"probability": 0.05102040816326531,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67 or 68",
"probability": 0.14285714285714285,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 or 70",
"probability": 0.26530612244897955,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 or 72",
"probability": 0.22448979591836732,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or 74",
"probability": 0.14285714285714285,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 or 76",
"probability": 0.05102040816326531,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 or 78",
"probability": 0.01020408163265306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "79 or more",
"probability": 0.01020408163265306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Ryan Costello",
"probability": 0.3220338983050847,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Everett Stern",
"probability": 0.25423728813559315,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
"probability": 0.25423728813559315,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
"probability": 0.0847457627118644,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlie Dent",
"probability": 0.0847457627118644,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.6138613861386139,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.38613861386138615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 2
}
]
Reference in New Issue View Git Blame Copy Permalink