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metaforecast/data/elicit-output.txt
NunoSempere f4d007f954 Added smarkets
2021-02-16 17:14:53 +01:00

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Title: Some title
URL: someurl.com
Platform: some platform
Binary question?: true
Percentage: X%/none
Description: Some long description which may contain html
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.39%
Description:
# Forecasts: 337
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will more than 50 people predict on this post?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82.03%
Description:
# Forecasts: 230
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36.85%
Description:
# Forecasts: 158
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52.70%
Description:
# Forecasts: 137
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75.52%
Description:
# Forecasts: 113
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63.37%
Description:
# Forecasts: 211
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61.63%
Description:
# Forecasts: 115
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How vivid is your visual imagination?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50.68%
Description:
# Forecasts: 119
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.50%
Description:
# Forecasts: 110
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42.70%
Description:
# Forecasts: 107
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 100
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How vivid is your sound imagination?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61.17%
Description:
# Forecasts: 106
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.63%
Description:
# Forecasts: 95
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43.12%
Description:
# Forecasts: 112
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 58.18%
Description:
# Forecasts: 158
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How vivid is your taste imagination?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25.73%
Description:
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How vivid is your smell imagination?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25.41%
Description:
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How frequently do you think in words?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78.13%
Description:
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19.76%
Description:
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Do you have an internal monologue?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82.28%
Description:
# Forecasts: 80
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How vivid is your touch imagination?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36.13%
Description:
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How good is your memory?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52.65%
Description:
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How much control do you have over your mind?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45.59%
Description:
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42.76%
Description:
# Forecasts: 85
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump will win a second term
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 46.20%
Description:
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24.51%
Description:
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 31.56%
Description:
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 89.52%
Description:
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60.22%
Description:
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.49%
Description:
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68.71%
Description:
# Forecasts: 42
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61.12%
Description:
# Forecasts: 42
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The Pope will be assassinated.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3.03%
Description:
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2.91%
Description:
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36.91%
Description:
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 47.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 38.97%
Description:
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 83.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 47.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 54.94%
Description:
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No military draft in the United States before 2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.81%
Description:
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82.13%
Description:
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.68%
Description:
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.23%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump wins Nobel
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.55%
Description:
# Forecasts: 38
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.24%
Description:
# Forecasts: 42
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: California will secede from the United States before 2021
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.68%
Description:
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.88%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ...be an environmental disaster.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.37%
Description:
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 46.84%
Description:
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The Singularity will occur by 2050.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35.12%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.46%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 58.56%
Description:
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24.39%
Description:
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 62.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68.88%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 84.11%
Description:
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19.35%
Description:
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.91%
Description:
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.67%
Description:
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 58.15%
Description:
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20.48%
Description:
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60.84%
Description:
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 37.46%
Description:
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70.19%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99.41%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.36%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34.13%
Description:
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Google will survive for 15 more years
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 88.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27.83%
Description:
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.45%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.68%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.74%
Description:
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17.05%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ...all-things-considered, be good for the world.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80.89%
Description:
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 47.05%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 86.75%
Description:
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2.21%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72.43%
Description:
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 48.40%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 74.85%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.95%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 54.20%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 39.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 83.14%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.94%
Description:
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: United States will invade Australia and take over
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12.05%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64.34%
Description:
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3.32%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64.80%
Description:
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64.28%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67.55%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51.78%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.39%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 83.95%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: aliens invade earth in 2023
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.94%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.72%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21.62%
Description:
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 47.17%
Description:
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 69.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.80%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.89%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30.95%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19.11%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77.71%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.13%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: US presidents term limits abolished
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2.24%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 57.78%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.12%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35.53%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95.32%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34.67%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.90%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Man will travel to Mars by 2030.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42.89%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 59.36%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: C still widely in use in the 2020s
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93.53%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 73.94%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 29.44%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 66.47%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.90%
Description:
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78.12%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 76.55%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.48%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3.71%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43.47%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.18%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93.31%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41.47%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.81%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 92.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 47.39%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.86%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17.39%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 87.18%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.19%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.55%
Description:
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5.94%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.20%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82.20%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.82%
Description:
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30.26%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 53.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.47%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.21%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.73%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 44.15%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.50%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 10 million
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.42%
Description:
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 29.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Humanity still a thing in 2036
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 89.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.84%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51.36%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 73.89%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 44.46%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 32.06%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85.31%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 18.54%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.47%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.92%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 62.71%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ETI is AGI
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 84.61%
Description:
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.62%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump dies of COVID-19
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.63%
Description:
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.75%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13.37%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 38.31%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.75%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 29.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.71%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51.07%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.60%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60.83%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2.73%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78.92%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63.15%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.58%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 37.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30.40%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 69.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 66.54%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52.47%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43.11%
Description:
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 49.24%
Description:
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15.93%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 46.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 100 million
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.31%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 18.25%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3.83%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20.25%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 46.07%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 86.83%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.17%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17.50%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.91%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.86%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.92%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 'President Mike Pence'
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.06%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 29.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump will run for president in 2024
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.09%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.88%
Description:
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.82%
Description:
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.20%
Description:
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 31.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65.93%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68.67%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.57%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 57.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 38.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13.67%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75.17%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64.82%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20.73%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2.42%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41.54%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21.27%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 31.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45.92%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45.31%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45.69%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.18%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 44.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.29%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump wins the 2020 election.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 47.54%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.43%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93.25%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.09%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23.67%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: China will land a man on Mars by 2050.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24.75%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77.83%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 50 million
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.65%
Description:
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.21%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 16.33%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3.54%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3.77%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5.42%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60.36%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.42%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.10%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36.82%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27.79%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.30%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41.30%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: EU to dissolve by 2040.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 39.45%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33.46%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 48.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15.80%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.60%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17.30%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78.90%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15.50%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.91%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 44.17%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: WWIII starts before 2030.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.86%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70.67%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.09%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75.09%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 46.70%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17.92%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30.90%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77.10%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21.70%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 29.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13.14%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.92%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 16.00%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.46%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: homosexuality criminalized in the US
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2.50%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.38%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Airbnb to be acquired by 2025
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34.64%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 29.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20.40%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19.80%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22.08%
Description:
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.36%
Description:
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0.50%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12.09%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4.20%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.09%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “China will break apart by 2030”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24.60%
Description:
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11.46%
Description:
# Forecasts: 13
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1.36%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032
URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
Platform: Elicit
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52.73%
Description:
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will the Universe end?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72%
Description: Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one. The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether "The Universe" will end. Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as "The Universe" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse) . So let's start with some definitions. When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the "sky" at some "distance." Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of a...
# Forecasts: 552
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an "Interplanetary Transport System" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX "gets lucky and things go according to plan", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent ...
# Forecasts: 4920
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 59%
Description: A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the "natural" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. Who will win? Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
# Forecasts: 804
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is the...
# Forecasts: 290
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: In the quest for "strong" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is "brain emulation," in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. In an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such "Ems" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.) There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the ne...
# Forecasts: 408
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe) . Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten...
# Forecasts: 826
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61%
Description: Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there ...
# Forecasts: 918
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Robocup Challenge
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a "grand challenge" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is: By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events. Will the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? Positive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.
# Forecasts: 301
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for " [lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628)," i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop. It has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly "slotted in" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask: When will a robot exist that is able to completely a...
# Forecasts: 296
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)). If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers. If an AI/ML system could beco...
# Forecasts: 489
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of now, there are to the author's knowledge no laws (or even regulations) concerning artificial intelligence on the books. When will the first law be passed in the US concerning AI? Resolution will occur if/when a bill with "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" in either the long or short official title or official description listed at [https://www.gpo.gov/](https://www.gpo.gov/) or other equivalent source.
# Forecasts: 422
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) .) The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservat...
# Forecasts: 536
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 39%
Description: [Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- White wins 2-- Black wins 3-- Forced draw If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if --- it is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides --- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](http...
# Forecasts: 131
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) . Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateacti...
# Forecasts: 292
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64%
Description: Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countr...
# Forecasts: 273
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to "never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices." Notably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document. Several treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France. Arguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/h...
# Forecasts: 258
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 71%
Description: Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects. According to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions. More recently...
# Forecasts: 651
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36%
Description: Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had ["verbal approval"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.) But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade) . If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start...
# Forecasts: 273
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: A major United States earthquake by 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by "The Big One," with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, r...
# Forecasts: 535
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will humans go extinct by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain o...
# Forecasts: 682
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/googl...
# Forecasts: 251
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: 2˚C global warming by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 89%
Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. Therefore, it is asked: Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880. (Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.) Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the dat...
# Forecasts: 359
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: World Population in 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs,...
# Forecasts: 305
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. 1--Venus. 2--Mars. 3--Europa. 4--Ganymede. 5--Another moon of Jupiter. 6--Enceladus. 7--Titan. 8--Another moon of Saturn. 9--A dwarf planet. 10-An asteroid. 11-Another place in the Solar System. Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-sol...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Increased off-world population in 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93%
Description: At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/) For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. The highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. But the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain. This uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensiv...
# Forecasts: 455
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime "metrics" one can write down with the requisite properties. There is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. More specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as "energy conditions." Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the "weak energy condition" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good rel...
# Forecasts: 227
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67%
Description: The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. When two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar. Pulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. In a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate ...
# Forecasts: 259
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much global warming by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. [It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperatu...
# Forecasts: 460
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here. The message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. In March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042. Will a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045? This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.
# Forecasts: 268
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 53%
Description: The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, "The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages". Similarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151. There are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely. When predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer...
# Forecasts: 357
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad. It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential. Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products. It is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100? Consumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the b...
# Forecasts: 459
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second. Yet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability) . There are certain "magic numbers" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created. It is asked: Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific ...
# Forecasts: 197
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Kessler syndrome by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. It is asked: By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?
# Forecasts: 425
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the world create the first Trillionaire?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/) . Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet...
# Forecasts: 353
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.000000000000002%
Description: The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916) : This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down int...
# Forecasts: 230
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s ["Death to Pennies"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year? After all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. You can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades. They accumulate in jars and slow transactions. Yes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/) : Coins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children. Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a...
# Forecasts: 364
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists) . But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that: The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago. Yikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often. Venus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc. But Venus is also in...
# Forecasts: 428
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will there be a mile-high building?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.) But guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark. Among them: --- The Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 --- In 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skys...
# Forecasts: 203
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 71%
Description: As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) . So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same ar...
# Forecasts: 281
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85%
Description: SpaceX has released plans for an "Interplanetary Transport System" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. This question sets a scaled-back goal: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.
# Forecasts: 1058
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 48%
Description: In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship --- Receive Medicaid and Medicare --- Vote in Presidential primaries On the other hand, they cannot: --- Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections --- Get access to other government programs --- Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state. Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in ...
# Forecasts: 381
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36%
Description: It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/) . The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.) As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain. It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question shou...
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22%
Description: Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet. In addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/) ....
# Forecasts: 343
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's "inner circle" to the following people: --- [Donald Trump himself](http://www.newsweek.com/could-trump-face-jail-time-mueller-investigation-776140) --- [Donald Trump Junior](http://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushner-donald-trump-jr-steve-bannon-michael-wolff-money-laundering-771166) --- [Ivanka Trump](http://www.newsweek.com/will-mueller-charge-ivanka-trump-russia-investigation-2018-773055) --- [Jared Kushner](https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/11/jared-kushners-chances-of-staying-out-of-prison-ju.html) ---Mike Pence --- [Michael Cohen](https://www.vox.com/2018/4/13/17226678/michael-cohen-raid-trump-pardon-law) ---John Kelly ---Hope Hicks --- [Steve Bannon](https://lawandcrime.com/legal-analysis/bannon-could-face-contempt-sanctions-for-not-answering-questions/) Note #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals. Note #2: Steve Bannon is included on the list, even though he and Tr...
# Forecasts: 315
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? For these purposes we define "practical" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no cri...
# Forecasts: 315
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will Metaculus exist in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85%
Description: Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time. Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030? A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once ope...
# Forecasts: 460
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: [John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking. Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world? It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time? Data for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires lis...
# Forecasts: 245
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.000000000000004%
Description: Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. Why do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: Much [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching. Several experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. Two of the most impo...
# Forecasts: 152
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11. However, we cannot rest easy. As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016: Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded ...
# Forecasts: 224
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator) . We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day. [Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) : According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market. The question is: can we do this? Kurzgesagt (a.k.a. "in a nutshell") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
# Forecasts: 357
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to "phone home" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html) . How we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/) : The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level. Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years...
# Forecasts: 115
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: [Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024. Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.
# Forecasts: 213
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust ("Lock him up!"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career. For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last. 1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case). 2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either a) he is no longer President, or b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment) 3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted. 4) He would have to be found guilty. 5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail. 6) The sentence starts before a pardon oc...
# Forecasts: 1158
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. The inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) For example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and ...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will commercial supersonic flight return?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/) . The era of human air travel was born. But skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? For instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html) Just 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1) . Wired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yea...
# Forecasts: 268
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23%
Description: While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/) . It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that t...
# Forecasts: 545
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67%
Description: Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.
# Forecasts: 357
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 91%
Description: There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy) . Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. Recently, though, there have been attempts to actual...
# Forecasts: 300
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, 1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: 1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an aborti...
# Forecasts: 361
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.00000000000001%
Description: For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy. The human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality. Currently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders. But by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. Per Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story: By 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as no...
# Forecasts: 270
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. Rebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is. They've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever. As this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes: The Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic pr...
# Forecasts: 198
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34%
Description: In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg: The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century. Silverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/re...
# Forecasts: 183
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013) : A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass. It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth. Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelya...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21%
Description: Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection. Other people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/) . Can people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: Normally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing. But surely th...
# Forecasts: 223
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. [CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school "with a significant amount of loans" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's "trillion" with a "T". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/) In November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880) : The average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent o...
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The scientific definition of "species" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains: At first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree. For the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41) : "a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature." Evolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physica...
# Forecasts: 201
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 38%
Description: On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865. --- Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. --- Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/pre...
# Forecasts: 277
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil) . It is asked: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions? Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer. <li>If the community prediction at the time of closing is &gt; 80%, then the questions resolves positive.</li> <li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is &lt; 20%, then the questions resolves negati...
# Forecasts: 191
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The "global" value is the relevant one here.) Will this goal be realized? The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.
# Forecasts: 223
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) . In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler &amp; Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation; Parameter Distribution: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. I thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equa...
# Forecasts: 232
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. In this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter. All evidence seems to indicate t...
# Forecasts: 250
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. In this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count. Predictors should use the sliders to make t...
# Forecasts: 233
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. In this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planet...
# Forecasts: 284
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. In this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds. There being no obvious sourc...
# Forecasts: 231
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space. Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered. Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it see...
# Forecasts: 247
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. In this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable. It could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remain...
# Forecasts: 228
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/) . It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope su...
# Forecasts: 132
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63%
Description: This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/) Psilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from. Despite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists...
# Forecasts: 240
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will AI progress surprise us?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to: <li> A party gaining decisive strategic advantage </li><li> A single important ‘deployment’ event </li><li> Other very s...
# Forecasts: 473
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour. Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate. The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling "surface". "I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun," [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&amp;sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the J...
# Forecasts: 135
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize. A good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video "P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s) The question asks: IF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? If no award is given du...
# Forecasts: 198
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second. Currently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. However, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]...
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. On 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space. On 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space. India plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that. That’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability. Part of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology ...
# Forecasts: 173
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3) . In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages. The Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit. But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) . The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost t...
# Forecasts: 491
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ) Despite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee. As increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economi...
# Forecasts: 185
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will India send their first own astronauts to space?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station) . With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) . Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘ [a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelea...
# Forecasts: 218
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder: When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years? Will resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.
# Forecasts: 118
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? New resolution criteria: This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: ---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. ---Public...
# Forecasts: 180
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms. Last year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ) . Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbid...
# Forecasts: 150
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. A brief overview on her: Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen suc...
# Forecasts: 340
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well). The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests....
# Forecasts: 280
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The universe is thought to contain: ---only around 5% of ordinary matter ---25% Dark Matter ---70% Dark Energy In other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of. Presence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen. [Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate. [What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic. The question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primar...
# Forecasts: 199
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960. The latest is the ["Moon to Mars"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1: The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.' The general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf) . [Metaculus has very similar and popular question...
# Forecasts: 286
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/) . Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is "a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth." One of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called " [Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system) " by the artist Blind Willie Johnson. Voyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of y...
# Forecasts: 172
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: All political parties eventually come to an end. Most U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940) .) For as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. But this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [point...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic) . (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.) In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthda...
# Forecasts: 271
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s. In June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9. This relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far. Would we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030. Resolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their re...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24%
Description: It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track r...
# Forecasts: 238
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions. The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at "somewhere between one out of three and even". Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) . There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover...
# Forecasts: 185
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22%
Description: Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner. In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2...
# Forecasts: 244
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: This star (aka "Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/) . Most attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons. Now I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says "yeah, of course that's what it was!", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust? From [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pd...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: [According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off. Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks) : marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even h...
# Forecasts: 282
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication. As Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. Plants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real p...
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692) . Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353) . The past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create virus...
# Forecasts: 188
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The first test launch of NASA's new "Space Launch System" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's...
# Forecasts: 183
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. This finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding "dogma" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. In some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our ...
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html) --have generated as much press as "Satoshi Nakamoto", the maverick who developed bitcoin. Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator) : ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. Will we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abo...
# Forecasts: 409
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period) . In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.c...
# Forecasts: 268
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve. What is the ultimate fate of the "stuff" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable. After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars) .) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void. But what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/) . But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons: --- We could end up sucked into the black hole at the c...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade. ---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. ---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. ---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars) . ---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works) . However, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misse...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first cloned human be born?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques-- [Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method) --using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as "somatic cell nuclear transfer." Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: [The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embr...
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 74%
Description: Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/) . As predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts t...
# Forecasts: 108
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: 3.6°C global warming by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 31%
Description: Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation— [range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) . Given these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions w...
# Forecasts: 129
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The ["nones" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity. Per a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there) : 1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second). At the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% b...
# Forecasts: 179
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 49%
Description: Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) . However, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing) . Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings abo...
# Forecasts: 124
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov) . While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect. As of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet. Sadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable— [or even massive](https://...
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the World's GDP be in 2028?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart) . From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008) . Currently, in the thir...
# Forecasts: 129
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23%
Description: In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”. Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&amp;state$time$value=2006&amp;delay:121.71612903225821;&amp;entities$;&amp;marker$select@;&amp;opacitySelectDim:0.3&amp;axis_x$use=indicator&amp;which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&amp;scaleType=log&amp;zoomedMin=282&amp;zoomedMax=119849&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;axis_y$use=indicator&amp;which...
# Forecasts: 183
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 86%
Description: China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else. From the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030. China has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in t...
# Forecasts: 406
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)). Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap) . To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices. When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a s...
# Forecasts: 123
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages. According to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere...
# Forecasts: 144
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/) . Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0) . Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively [ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective ch...
# Forecasts: 106
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) . As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880. Here, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time? Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming sha...
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In [ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%. It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars? This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.
# Forecasts: 388
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend. For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015? Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases: --- In June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached ...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: [According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable. However, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. One explanatio...
# Forecasts: 142
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43%
Description: In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)). The satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space. It is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. The official story (provided by anonymous governmen...
# Forecasts: 118
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself. There are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars? This question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission. The landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count. Resolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or...
# Forecasts: 123
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon. Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb). On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? This question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle...
# Forecasts: 69
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
Description: In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans. A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations. Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescen...
# Forecasts: 184
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. In order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. This question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.
# Forecasts: 203
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence. The most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability...
# Forecasts: 200
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field. This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. o...
# Forecasts: 230
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days. She has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. The oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. Here are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](http...
# Forecasts: 174
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: [Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCO...
# Forecasts: 246
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people. In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time. As of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time. This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?
# Forecasts: 77
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Will Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) ? This question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating "repressed economic activity". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedi...
# Forecasts: 218
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will US income inequality increase by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 48%
Description: According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40. Therefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile. At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%? For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources...
# Forecasts: 217
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. This question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere? For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including ...
# Forecasts: 181
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this. He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service. Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running "to be a watchd...
# Forecasts: 247
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) . However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hea...
# Forecasts: 227
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network) The fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind. Since the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes. This question...
# Forecasts: 269
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99%
Description: The unemployment rate in the United States averaged 5.77% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80% in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50% in May of 1953. According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. You can view historical data [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) . At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%? For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, or, if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press.
# Forecasts: 368
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19%
Description: Context ======= A von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called "Universal Assemblers." While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so. In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. If a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6%
Description: A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 J...
# Forecasts: 229
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: [Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following: "So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? "You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling int...
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun. It is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c). This question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans? In order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. Article V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment. The other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as...
# Forecasts: 151
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99%
Description: Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA. What any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. Other types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed asse...
# Forecasts: 286
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: [Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper ["A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html) The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity. An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural ...
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million. As of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates) . As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9% When will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States e...
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)). When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas? Positive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for...
# Forecasts: 123
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the 10,000th human reach space?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level. The first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. As of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia...
# Forecasts: 142
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individua...
# Forecasts: 230
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market. It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)). This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000) . The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023. Resolves: ---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 ---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 ---ambiguous if they are the s...
# Forecasts: 174
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1667/when-will-reuters-journalists-wa-lone-and-kyaw-soe-oo-be-released-from-prison/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 12 December 2017, members of Myanmar's police force arrested Reuters journalists [Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inn_Din_massacre#Arrest_of_Reuters_journalists) at a restaurant in Yangon after inviting them to dinner. The two journalists were independently investigating the mass grave found in [Inn Din](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inn_Din_massacre) prior to their arrest. A court charged the two journalists with obtaining secret state documents in violation of the Official Secrets Act on 9 July 2018, taking the case to trial after a period of preliminary hearings that lasted six months. The pair pleaded not guilty to the charges and vowed to testify and prove their innocence. On 3 September 2018, the two journalists were found guilty by a court and sentenced to [seven years in prison](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists-trial-specialrepo/special-report-how-myanmar-punished-two-reporters-for-uncovering-an-atrocity-idUSKCN1LJ167) . In Decemb...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: [The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or "Webb") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. One of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)). Development began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delay...
# Forecasts: 164
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72%
Description: [warning: links may contain spoilers] [George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers) . Many of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1) . For instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publi...
# Forecasts: 314
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will PHP die?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all) : PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. Some popular websites using PHP: --- [Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) --- [Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) --- [Vk.com](http://Vk.com) --- [Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) --- [360.cn](http://360.cn) --- [Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) --- [Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) --- [Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. [Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: --- [Is ...
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63%
Description: [Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. This question...
# Forecasts: 362
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51%
Description: Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner. In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that t...
# Forecasts: 155
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692) . Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353) . [An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engin...
# Forecasts: 108
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: [The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982. Volume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from "gentle" to "mega-colossal") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft). The scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2. ...
# Forecasts: 140
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first human be born on another world?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon. In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone. In that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth? The child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid. A 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (u...
# Forecasts: 159
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17%
Description: [World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war. [World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war. [World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II....
# Forecasts: 558
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime. In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime) . But when will we know whether N=2 or not? When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously. An [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture wou...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) ! For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) . Similar questions: --- [When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) --- [When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)
# Forecasts: 175
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [ [1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere) ]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html) . What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) . If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: ...
# Forecasts: 165
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60. This question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually. Resolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.
# Forecasts: 141
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. The Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger. Driving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with t...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: [A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" with "Leave," and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with "Remain." The "Leave" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any ...
# Forecasts: 578
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: Context ======= Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to): --- [KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) --- [Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) --- [SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) --- [Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) --- [SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software. Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https:...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will India become a World Bank high-income country?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world. GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006...
# Forecasts: 145
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2585/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-25-trillion/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. [As of January 17 2019, debt held by the public was $16.094 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.860 trillion, for a total or "National Debt" of $21.954 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) [You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](http://www.usdebtclock.org/) This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $25 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press.
# Forecasts: 302
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will we have micropayments?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&amp;utm_brand=wired&amp;utm_campaign=wired&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_social-type=owned&amp;utm_source=twitter), asking Where are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance? and lamenting: Of course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form pu...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will North Korea have a McDonald's?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ran...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023? This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows. (Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions) 1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 2-- [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 6--Johnson &amp; Johnson JNJ 345.95 7--JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co JPM 345.44 8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 13-Visa Inc V 238.97 14-Wells Fargo &amp; Co (New) WFC 234.51 15-Procter &amp; Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 18-AT&amp;T Inc T 223.22 19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 Note: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The f...
# Forecasts: 220
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: [The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year. Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year? Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. Our comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.
# Forecasts: 175
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. Such accurately representative simulations would also make it ...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. If the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the d...
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19%
Description: The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf) The Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so. No state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled. Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and i...
# Forecasts: 197
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: [Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009. This question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950? For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data. Edit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.
# Forecasts: 264
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US? The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive). Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west. Nigeria is often referred to as the "Giant of Africa", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371) Nigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-p...
# Forecasts: 132
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap) . And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $2 trillion (adjusted to 2018 p...
# Forecasts: 286
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play. Poker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. An example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead n...
# Forecasts: 147
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199) . In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples. Adversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. ["Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview. Notably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authenticati...
# Forecasts: 155
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 69%
Description: Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade. [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable. [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease) : sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contri...
# Forecasts: 272
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. Estimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.) This huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full "strong" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sens...
# Forecasts: 197
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. With receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least. As such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. The creation of the SKA is separated into two phases: 1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). 2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. These huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what i...
# Forecasts: 104
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63%
Description: In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. For this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020. Let’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction. Will Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030? Resolution conditions: ---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platfor...
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: ---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; ---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; ---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. This falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. However, policies are often under varying outside pr...
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: The 2008 financial crisis was ["considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008) . According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&amp;start=1961&amp;view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%). Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related o...
# Forecasts: 725
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) [Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing...
# Forecasts: 954
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17%
Description: The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. With thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects) . ITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. The project aims to: --- Momentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia...
# Forecasts: 145
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. Features of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income) . This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached. The implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. So far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_worl...
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). AIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype. HIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[ [1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf) ] According to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-rel...
# Forecasts: 200
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project co...
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say. There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate "Voynichese" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)). This question resolves positively if an attemp...
# Forecasts: 116
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere. After 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. As a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. This question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at t...
# Forecasts: 103
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) . An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm. An early fo...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’. Furthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses. There are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes v...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: [Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016. Farage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. In May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom...
# Forecasts: 201
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on. While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previ...
# Forecasts: 211
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four. One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering) . ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have e...
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67%
Description: Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com) . Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html) . As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can "pass a Turing test" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial. For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech) . By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI? Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-a...
# Forecasts: 129
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon sin...
# Forecasts: 176
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95%
Description: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come. This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by: --- Deliberate nuclear attack. --- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.) --- Accidental detonation of a weapon. --- Nuclear terrorism. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusi...
# Forecasts: 222
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: "Mathematics may not be ready for such problems". The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: --- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) --- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) --- [When will the ...
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Is the Collatz Conjecture true?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93%
Description: A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out. Again, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is: collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where n is a positive integer. The Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1). For any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes: 1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts. 2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt. 3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In...
# Forecasts: 153
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 92%
Description: In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program. Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. The Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs. Let's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise. Does collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist. Note that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the prog...
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) . Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe. Given that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur? Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.
# Forecasts: 148
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable. For completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved. We can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. Possible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets: ---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 ---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever ---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers The Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty. The halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether th...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels? Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.
# Forecasts: 342
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[ [1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ] WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[ [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em) ] An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissu...
# Forecasts: 108
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[ [1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ] An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process coul...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia) . Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows: ---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which ------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, ------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, ------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. ---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
# Forecasts: 150
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The ...
# Forecasts: 111
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia) . Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows: ---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which ------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, ------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, ------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. ---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated,
how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [ [1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ] If whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the "overshoot" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than h...
# Forecasts: 103
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since. However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia. These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about ...
# Forecasts: 137
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap) . And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2...
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named "penicillin" - the antibiotic we know and love today. Since the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine. But they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a "serious, worldwide threat to public health" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/) . In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website sugg...
# Forecasts: 93
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a "serious, worldwide threat to public health" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/) . In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask: How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report? Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. Related question: [Will the...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015. However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015. See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quo...
# Forecasts: 91
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT? See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)
# Forecasts: 181
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf) : In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure. In this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M? The resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. I...
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain? This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not ha...
# Forecasts: 198
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person. In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? Resolution: ---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) ---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. ---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous.
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will an AI pass the laugh test?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? Fine print: --- The accuracy metric is unspeci...
# Forecasts: 101
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The Hubble "constant", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy. A mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute ...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans. Since biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future. Given that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur? Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioeng...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents. A [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/) —a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[ [1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf) ] [ [2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8) ] [ [3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646) ] The question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from ste...
# Forecasts: 80
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3040/when-will-the-odds-ratio-of-metaculus-community-prediction-of-the-chance-of-ai-catastrophe-by-2100-either-half-or-double-from-its-value-on-2019-08-21/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2019-08-21, Metaculus' community prediction gives a probability of 0.38 [that there will be a global catastrophe reducing the population by at least 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), and a probability of of 0.29 [that this catastrophe will be due to an AI failure mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), for a probability of 0.1102, corresponding to an [odds ratio](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Odds_ratio) of 0.124. Halving this odds ratio corresponds to a probability of 0.0583, and doubling this odds ratio corresponds to a probability of 0.1985. The Metaculus prediction leaving this range would represent a substantial increase in the community's confidence on whether or not AI is a major risk. This may either be be...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43%
Description: In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual) . That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&amp;r=US&amp;IR=T) . Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe. In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[ [1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html) ], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. By 'country,' this question re...
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. Nonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenge...
# Forecasts: 99
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours) Over the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. This question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of La...
# Forecasts: 80
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) . Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset. [DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711) . The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8) . When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? Resolution This question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a ...
# Forecasts: 182
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. Alternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=beyond+meat+market+cap&amp;meta=) . When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices? Resolution Positive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as ...
# Forecasts: 126
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). If success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change. Moreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly. How many months after the first clean m...
# Forecasts: 124
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market. For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018. How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market. For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) . How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of cl...
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)) : Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system. According to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go. Question: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027? Resolution details: ---Resolution is by credible media report. ---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc....
# Forecasts: 186
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021) . In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/) : For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public. In 2015, "restaurant" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners...
# Forecasts: 102
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? The "magic" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic B) 0 &lt; p &lt; 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. C) p &gt; 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. I'm writing a paper about this now and ver...
# Forecasts: 211
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021) . In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/) : For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public. In 2015, "restaurant" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners...
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954) : When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to "within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products." Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a co...
# Forecasts: 103
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954) : When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to "within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products." Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a co...
# Forecasts: 123
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk. Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Ins...
# Forecasts: 124
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk. Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Ins...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers: while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture. Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringi...
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers: while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture. Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringi...
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains. [In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack) . Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC). On what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain &gt;=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025? 1-- The reported &gt;=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent. 2-- If the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 ...
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). Plant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk. How much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) . The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of...
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). Dollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. Currently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs. How much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question will resolve as the value of the...
# Forecasts: 149
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: [Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations) . Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report) . GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) ...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 39%
Description: Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is. Stats to consider: Distance ---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. ---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). One-way communication lag ---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes ---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds Gravity ---Mars: 0.38 g ---The Moon: 0.17 g Rotation period ---Mars: 25 hours ---The Moon: 1 month Atmosphere ---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. ---The Moon: negligible if any. Solar energy ---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. ---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. This question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents f...
# Forecasts: 225
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007) . The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx) . Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007) . The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx) . Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37...
# Forecasts: 142
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77%
Description: The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C ("Special Vehicles") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called "passes"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to off...
# Forecasts: 140
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https:/...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves ...
# Forecasts: 115
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report: Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006. Will US No...
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: [The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/) . According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org)) ? This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period. If for some reason, [F...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator) : The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)) : A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upp...
# Forecasts: 85
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobb...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year. How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices? Resolution This question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is "not fit for purpose". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement. It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversi...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels) This question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? This question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.
# Forecasts: 208
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. [The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.
# Forecasts: 220
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART) . Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric. What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?
# Forecasts: 80
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78%
Description: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come. This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by: --- Deliberate nuclear attack. --- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.) --- Accidental detonation of a weapon. --- Nuclear terrorism. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusi...
# Forecasts: 178
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007) . The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx) . Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37...
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1) . This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance. In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/jo...
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [no-deal Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-deal_Brexit) is one in which the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without a withdrawal agreement. Such a departure from the EU could disrupt trade between the UK and the EU, with the UK trading under WTO rules and paying greater tariffs, rather than a more favorable deal negotiated with the EU. If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will the average yearly percentage growth in real GDP of the UK be over the five-year period following Brexit? If Article 50 is revoked (cancelling Brexit), or if the UK leaves the EU with a negotiated deal, this question resolves ambiguously. Average here is the arithmetic mean.
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67%
Description: As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. But life could take many forms: ---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry) . ---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). ---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). ---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consisten...
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: WeWork (officially "The We Company") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) [In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&amp;IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRs...
# Forecasts: 381
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART) . Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric. What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding). In the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1) . Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf) . There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.). Fortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at...
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1) . This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance. In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371...
# Forecasts: 85
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm). Since beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef. However, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is "not fit for purpose" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](http...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/) . It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf) . The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/) . The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi...
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will first land a person on Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be: 1-- The US government 2-- SpaceX 3-- Another government 4-- Another corporation or private organization 5-- Other (somehow) Although Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the "weight" sliders until we add a better numerical readout. Resolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which w...
# Forecasts: 225
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/) . It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf) . The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/) . The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. [In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html) In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have ca...
# Forecasts: 177
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat. It seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask: When will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? Question resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product. Resolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring. (Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that 1--is in orbit around the Sun, 2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, 3--has "cleared the neighborhood" around its orbit. A debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3]. The chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that "clearing the neighborhood" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 53%
Description: American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively. When will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011: In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes...
# Forecasts: 91
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. In this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics: Average weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. For historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead). Resolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025. This question is complementary with a...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf) . Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items) . In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? Resolution This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.librar...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf) . Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items) . How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? Resolution This resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53j...
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/) . Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf) . The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en) . This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion. How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over t...
# Forecasts: 121
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024. So far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon. Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025? For the purposes of this question, the country...
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: The Brexit Party is a Eurosceptic political party in the UK currently led by Nigel Farage. As the name suggests they are generally considered a single-issue party advocating for a swift Brexit on WTO terms (AKA a 'no-deal' Brexit). The party is, at the time of writing, less than one year old (although can be thought of as the spiritual successor to the UK Independence Party, of which Farage was previously the figurehead). It won the most votes in the UK at the recent European elections - but can that success transfer into a general election where UKIP only ever won one seat? Can the party survive in a post-Brexit political landscape (if such a thing ever comes to pass)? Or will Farage himself finally win a seat at the eighth time of asking? Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election? This question resolves positively if the Brexit Party wins one or more seats at the next UK General Election, as reported by the BBC and negatively otherwise. By-elections and defe...
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) ? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.
# Forecasts: 177
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii) . This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a "max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net) 's European server. Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans? When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten pla...
# Forecasts: 144
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) ? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.
# Forecasts: 91
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is ["the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations."](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/) . It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019. This question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? In 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/) . This question will ...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies— [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy) —were reportedly born in October 2018. This question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? Question resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.
# Forecasts: 119
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/) . IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States. This question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? Question resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to c...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/) . Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf) . The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en) . This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion. How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over t...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/) . How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? Resolution This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: Regions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: "Producing Animals/Slaughtered" Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
# Forecasts: 89
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252) . Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6) . As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf) . In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might red...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of the issues that Bernie Sanders is running on is [Housing for All](https://berniesanders.com/issues/housing-all/), a collection of policies intended to increase the availability of affordable housing. Of note for this question are his policies listed under the "end homelessness in America" heading: --- Prioritize 25,000 National Affordable Housing Trust Fund units in the first year to house the homeless. --- Double McKinney-Vento homelessness assistance grants to more than $26 billion over the next five years to build permanent supportive housing. --- Provide $500 million in funding to states and localities to provide outreach to the homeless to help connect them to case management and social services to ensure nobody is left behind. I am curious about whether these policies will be enacted, and to what extent they will work, so I ask: If Bernie Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US on a single night in 2024? Judgement ...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52%
Description: Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. To pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks: Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person. Moreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with th...
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later. To find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive the...
# Forecasts: 96
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: [James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation) . His preservation was rather primitive and late: Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […]. A longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html) . Because he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200? For the purposes of this que...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations: ---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) ---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) ---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) ---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) For a total of 411. However, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)). To determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205? Resolution details: --- This question only consider...
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252) . As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf) . In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching. When will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states? Re...
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipe...
# Forecasts: 186
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)). The [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html) : The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? Resolution details: ---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. ---This question does not resolve from the Special ...
# Forecasts: 190
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Labour party has [announced a plan to bring free full-fiber broadband to every home and business in the UK](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50427369) by partially nationalizing BT. Labour believes that this plan will cost £20bn, though the Conservatives have criticized this, claiming that it is likely to cost £83bn over 10 years and that nationalisation will discourage private investment. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071) . If, in the 2019 election, Labour, or a coalition with Labour making up the majority of seats, forms a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband sp...
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071) . If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband spe...
# Forecasts: 161
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length . In the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered. Naive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; t...
# Forecasts: 107
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective) . Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system) . As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%...
# Forecasts: 138
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w) . Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030? Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close th...
# Forecasts: 69
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio) . This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/) . Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf) . When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus? Resolution Types 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-...
# Forecasts: 94
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months. Progress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%. What will the mean of ...
# Forecasts: 111
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12%
Description: Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. Various notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik...
# Forecasts: 213
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 79%
Description: Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipe...
# Forecasts: 224
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 49%
Description: In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. For the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. One of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current ...
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 16%
Description: Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples. However, for many companies, "going public" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to "cash out" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources. Question: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? The obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million. I inc...
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en....
# Forecasts: 373
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). The key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) ; p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effective...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: it is estimated that [60% of the biomass of mammals are livestock](https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506) . The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve “intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering”.[ [1](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ch5fq73AFn2Q72AMQ/why-animals-matter-for-effective-altruism) ] The [World Animal Protection](https://api.worldanimalprotection.org/) is [expected to update its assessment](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20190617_pres-12.pdf) of each country and considers a number of indicators which address the key issues relevant to improving animal welfare around the world. One of these issue is the welfare of farm animals. Specifically, the following three factors of welfare of farm animals: --- Protection of animals’ welfare needs during rearing, such as freedom of movement and freedom to...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34%
Description: [Recent work in neuroscience](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christof-koch/consciousness-is-everywhere_b_1784047.html) suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released " [The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness](http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf)," arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and some others) possess the neurological substrates that generate consciousness, and that consciousness and intentionality are not uniquely human attributes. In the US, there is some federal legislation recognising some aspects of animal sentience in some animals. In particular, the preamble to the Humane Methods of Slaughter Act of 1958 explains that the use of humane methods in the slaughter of livestock prevents needless suffering, thereby acknowledging this capacity in non-human animals. However, the legislati...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks. It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z) . Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.). The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insec...
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter. This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following: Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[ [1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf) ] As of...
# Forecasts: 89
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective) . Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system) . In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf) . [According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tr...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain) . To shed more light on the question, it is thus asked: What will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be? Resolution --- This question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200. --- This question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200. --- For the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year. --- For the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this q...
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction. In March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80) . What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
# Forecasts: 171
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years. This question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050? For a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). If the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
# Forecasts: 224
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared "commercially extinct", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection. Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/file...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell...
# Forecasts: 219
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm) . In the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en) . Yet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due ...
# Forecasts: 43
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born. Jeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for t...
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. A nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates). This question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030? Resolution should cite a data...
# Forecasts: 170
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus) : Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. And: Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015. Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted. Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? Resolution details: --- "the last Metaculus question resolution" is here defined as either: ------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. ------The resolution of...
# Forecasts: 95
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11%
Description: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4) . Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) globa...
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4) . Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) globa...
# Forecasts: 85
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? Resolution This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: Regions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: "Producing Animals/Slaughtered" Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates. Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing) . Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in...
# Forecasts: 94
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: [Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin) . He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign) . Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela) . Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his...
# Forecasts: 444
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the next President of the United States be impeached?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments) : [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the Unite...
# Forecasts: 213
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.). Since approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein: Roughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed. In the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? Resolution Estimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [I...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter. This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following: Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[ [1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf) ] As of...
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) . Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131) . According to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at leas...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.99999999999999%
Description: One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1. Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in t...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21%
Description: Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf) . Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031) . All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however,...
# Forecasts: 100
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: [The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. [The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the ...
# Forecasts: 286
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: [Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.
# Forecasts: 1226
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526) . However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/) . We might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee ce...
# Forecasts: 81
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015. The Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species. The Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[ [1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c) ] How much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020? Resolution This question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with &gt;30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 202...
# Forecasts: 147
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf) . Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031) . All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however,...
# Forecasts: 70
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660) : I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived. If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's. This question resolves positively if any of the terms "agi...
# Forecasts: 158
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 88%
Description: In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion. As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point. This question resolves positively if...
# Forecasts: 129
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format. As of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects. If ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released. This question resolves ambiguously if: ---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). ---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. ---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positi...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3%
Description: The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again. This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. * "military personnel" here includes the Coast Guard. "conscription" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.
# Forecasts: 137
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territorie...
# Forecasts: 306
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77%
Description: In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months. This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) . Assume that at some point, a machine is cr...
# Forecasts: 106
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177. How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? This question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A "patient" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this "general" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) fi...
# Forecasts: 419
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93%
Description: Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome. On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/) . After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other peopl...
# Forecasts: 306
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01) : Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade. He plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.): “Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.” Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers. Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of "CFTR Modulators" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough...
# Forecasts: 65
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.
# Forecasts: 144
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.) This question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbe...
# Forecasts: 164
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3)). Research suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007)). However, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459)). The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf) . SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview) . Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: One Million Martian Residents by 2075?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193) . Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate. Like most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than o...
# Forecasts: 300
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect) . Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/) . In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the [International Renewable Energy A...
# Forecasts: 121
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect) . Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/) . In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the [International Renewable Energy A...
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of "minutes" (and [recently "seconds"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight. Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight. This question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? This resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close...
# Forecasts: 95
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11%
Description: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) . Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf) . Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation. There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance ...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon, Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes. This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) . Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf) . Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation. There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance ...
# Forecasts: 81
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/) . However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf) : The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep g...
# Forecasts: 126
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/) . According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf) . This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, wh...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/) . Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom. Over the 2014 to 2016 period, total renewable energy produced grew at an impressible 3.47% year-over-year, on average. What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced wo...
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree? Source: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/) This resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/) . However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? Resolution This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electr...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/) . However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? Resolution This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for elect...
# Forecasts: 70
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11%
Description: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf) : P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through...
# Forecasts: 100
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68%
Description: Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted "first in the nation" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa. On 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead" on MSNBC. Will this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated? This question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) ...
# Forecasts: 99
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: 1a) Is widely reported in the media as "Medicare for All" or 1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare 2) Covers all citizens of ...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)? For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it: 1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage. 2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-wort...
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, "In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response." This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct "yes" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct "no" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct "yes" or direct "no" are not counted. The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: ---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. ---There are an equal number of direct "Yes"s or "No"s in the replies. ---A Metaculus mode...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively. This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.
# Forecasts: 281
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 46%
Description: The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court) . It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.
# Forecasts: 202
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the United States admit a new state?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union. Question: When will the United States admit a new state? This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A "new state" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019. It resolves as "&gt; Dec 31, 2050" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.
# Forecasts: 157
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011. How many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 222
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: So-called "third parties" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckly in 1970. For the purposes of this question, "independent" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/) . Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 215
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question. This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics) .
# Forecasts: 87
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) . The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 113
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.
# Forecasts: 150
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 89%
Description: The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009. This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question can be resolved at any time.
# Forecasts: 268
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/) . If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/) . If Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 93
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/) . If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of ...
# Forecasts: 322
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf) . The overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/) . According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016. How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World...
# Forecasts: 168
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf) . According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) . Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimat...
# Forecasts: 147
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 87%
Description: In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/), The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best ...
# Forecasts: 237
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to ...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/) . On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway...
# Forecasts: 121
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 71%
Description: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf) : P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produc...
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3671/will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and some (rank) speculation (see e.g. [here](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/14/21137882/prediction-markets-bloomberg-sanders-president)) that Bloomberg's could be similarly benefitting. The proposition in question will be taken as: A major prediction market such as PredictIt, Betfair, or one of comparable liquidity has had 2020 Presidential election results materially changed using bets made with funds tied directly to Bloomberg or his campaign. That's not terribly precise, by design. It does not address the source of knowledge or fix many of the details. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this questio...
# Forecasts: 159
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: Governments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change. The annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreem...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.000000000000002%
Description: The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/) . The proposition in question will be taken as: The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of ["self-resolving" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: --- If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community predictio...
# Forecasts: 2393
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17%
Description: The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19. In a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan: In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV ...
# Forecasts: 431
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 38%
Description: An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors. This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally ...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope. Among the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm. That being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is stil...
# Forecasts: 100
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background [Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold. An [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15). Resolution This question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission tes...
# Forecasts: 77
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf) . [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These ...
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/) . It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf) . The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/) . The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/do...
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/) . These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&amp;feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately repres...
# Forecasts: 370
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3718/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Unfortunately, this question had to be closed due to me accidentally setting a closed lower-bound. Please submit your predictions in the [new corrected version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3738/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/) . Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans. A [novel coronavirus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus) (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. As of the 15th of February, 2020, the location outside of Mainland China with the largest number of confirmed COVID-2019 cases is the ["Diamond Princess" cruise ship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)), currently docked in the Port of Yokohama, Japan. [Johns Hopkins interactive web-based dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)...
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Why care Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown. [On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), "fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation." When w...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= Nuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). On the other hand, "fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-...
# Forecasts: 43
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will space mining be profitable?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel. This being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine me...
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-lev...
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many communist states will there be in 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Simultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left gueril...
# Forecasts: 138
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 32%
Description: According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)). We don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD. This question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred. If any of the coin...
# Forecasts: 106
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52%
Description: My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not "steak or cream pies or hot fudge", foods known by (future) science to be healthy. In the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. The idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be: "It is generally ackno...
# Forecasts: 103
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 34%
Description: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/) . The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity ...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf) . The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include: ---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), ---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: [WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted " [insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/) ". There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange: We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.” However, there are also theories claiming that some of ...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3764/when-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-close-after-the-coronavirus-crash-of-february-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average) (DJIA, or the Dow) is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices. In late 2019, [a novel coronavirus emerged in Hubei Province, China, and quickly spread around the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) . By February 28 2020, [over 85,000 infections had been confirmed worldwide, along with over 2,900 related deaths.](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) The global spread of the virus spooked financial markets...
# Forecasts: 766
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/) ? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. This question asks how m...
# Forecasts: 615
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-lev...
# Forecasts: 140
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85%
Description: In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate. For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html) The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its ...
# Forecasts: 101
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering) Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing. For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200. 1-- At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional en...
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 44%
Description: Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism), a type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend. Market socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism a...
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3786/what-will-be-the-lowest-closing-value-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-it-reaches-a-new-all-time-record-high-close/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The  [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average)  (DJIA, or the Dow) is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices. In late 2019,  [a novel coronavirus emerged in Hubei Province, China, and quickly spread around the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) . By February 28 2020,  [over 85,000 infections had been confirmed worldwide, along with over 2,900 related deaths.](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) The global spread of the virus spooked financial mar...
# Forecasts: 567
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: [Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. (In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.) A "therapy" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the th...
# Forecasts: 84
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3805/if-bernie-sanders-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A major element of the Sanders campaign is his Green New Deal proposal, a collection of policies intended to address the climate crisis. From his [campaign website](https://berniesanders.com/issues/green-new-deal/), this will entail: --- Transform our energy system to 100 percent renewable energy and create 20 million jobs needed to solve the climate crisis. --- Ensure a just transition for communities and workers, including fossil fuel workers. --- Ensure justice for frontline communities, especially under-resourced groups, communities of color, Native Americans, people with disabilities, children and the elderly. --- Save American families money with investments in weatherization, public transportation, modern infrastructure and high-speed broadband. --- Commit to reducing emissions throughout the world, including providing $200 billion to the Green Climate Fund, rejoining the Paris Agreement, and reasserting the United States’ leadership in the global fight against climate chan...
# Forecasts: 55
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail: --- Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050. --- Build a stronger, more resilient nation. --- Rally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change --- Stand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities. --- Fulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth. In order to predict the success of these polices, I ask: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes? This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021). Resolution...
# Forecasts: 150
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title. Franchises that already are at the number 2: "Half Life 2", "Portal 2", "Left 4 Dead 2", "Team Fortress 2" and "Dota 2". This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has "3" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.
# Forecasts: 123
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity. Since the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search) . This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. This question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place? This question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present e...
# Forecasts: 225
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41%
Description: [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency) . It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of ...
# Forecasts: 763
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6%
Description: [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency) . It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of ...
# Forecasts: 297
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the next Qatari general election be held?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced. When will Qatar hold its first legislative election? If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false) . Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars. South Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK "wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions. The question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics? Because the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12%
Description: Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? Resolution details: --- To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. --- The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. *4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, "worlds" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. The other names of the many-worlds interpretation include "the relative state formulation", "the Everett interpretation", and "the theory of the universal wavefunction." This question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 39%
Description: The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)). Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&amp;source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy. At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privile...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired. The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
# Forecasts: 198
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones) . Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11) . The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? For the purposes of this question, "currently undiscovered" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question ...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/) . The question asks: If there is a "Third World War", what longitude will it start in? Longitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180...
# Forecasts: 89
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/) . The question asks: If there is a "Third World War", what latitude will it start in? Latitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified. but of course That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out. This would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that: "The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars." This question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: --- If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is ...
# Forecasts: 170
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. The country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021. When, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union? For this question to resolve positively, the ...
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html) . At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth). However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale) . Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells). Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&amp;t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids. This question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by t...
# Forecasts: 96
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf) . One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen. Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. t...
# Forecasts: 255
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code. According to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage) : The Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission. The report didn’t specify if the legislature will include t...
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV), The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981. To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. --- This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people. --- Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: --- Positive resolution if there is...
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? The C...
# Forecasts: 506
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter. But will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversatio...
# Forecasts: 93
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the next US recession turn into a depression?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) . It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is "Will the US Experience a Depression?" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp) : A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent. According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression? This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the f...
# Forecasts: 339
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
# Forecasts: 184
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic) . These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time ...
# Forecasts: 378
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will inflation be in the US in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic) . These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time ...
# Forecasts: 147
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans), Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal "wiring diagram") completed. In 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to "build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells." More generally...
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic) . These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time ...
# Forecasts: 160
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 86%
Description: During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle. From then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. The first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at t...
# Forecasts: 194
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities. On February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported, One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promis...
# Forecasts: 291
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB. What will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025? If [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg) . The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 52%
Description: Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X) a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales. It was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. Alcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans...
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen, --- A wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics. --- The government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs. Cryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita. After 10 years of when the offe...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank is designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity. As of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) 's [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?
# Forecasts: 217
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html), This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on de...
# Forecasts: 85
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. This question asks: What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) . Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. Resolution criteria: With probability of 80% this question will resolve on t...
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled ["The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good."](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842) . Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest. Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreem...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4066/10m-are-administered-an-efficacious-vaccine/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. As of 20 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) is [reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines](https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus-landscape-ncov.pdf?ua=1) . Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. There is an urgent need to determine when the first of these candidates will have been found to have a high degree of efficacy and will have been administered to a significant number of people. [The WHO defines](htt...
# Forecasts: 1513
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032: --- The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/) --i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met). --- Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs. Define the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131. We divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and . What will be t...
# Forecasts: 144
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Caloric restriction is, a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. "Reduce" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging. Assume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average? For the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that --- Did not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction --- Quit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. --- Began caloric restricti...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, Donald Trump's environmental priorities have not included the reduction of emissions by the US, and are instead aimed [at rolling back environmental regulations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration) . If he gets a second term, he may continue and expand these policies. I am curious about the overall impact of this on CO2 emissions, so I ask: If Donald Trump becomes president as a result of the 2020 election, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes? Resolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source. This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021). See also: --- [If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be t...
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 69
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence, It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives...
# Forecasts: 109
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) .
# Forecasts: 143
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180), Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014), Note that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have...
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Disease: is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs. According to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. Futurists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp), Would it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? T...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) This question asks: In the United States pre...
# Forecasts: 470
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change, The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other pr...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014) . His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records) . When will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess? Resolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row. The question resolves as "&gt;2040" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), One could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance. Furthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) . If Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then ec...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...] Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative...
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. Will Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035? This question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By "related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.
# Forecasts: 167
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior. This question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/) .
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world. The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU) . This question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010? Specifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number r...
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether. Talkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020. Out of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period. Question ======== How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal us...
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial. Fahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf) . However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. [A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: 1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2) . 2--A paper posted on [...
# Forecasts: 70
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence. In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question. Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmar...
# Forecasts: 96
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture. When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT? Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese. A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-veg...
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary. This question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/que...
# Forecasts: 60
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time. Question How many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life? Definitions Endurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count. Extra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on. We'll take someone healthy to mean a person who: --- was born in the 1990s, --- doesn't smoke, --- eats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables, --- has body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman, --- drinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and --- lives in a [World Bank high-income country](ht...
# Forecasts: 113
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24%
Description: Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models. Human clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating: ---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/), [2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) ---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) ---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) Will a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by &gt;5%? This question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positiv...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander: NASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024. The three companies are: 1--Blue Origin 2--Dynetics 3--SpaceX This question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon? This question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0. If two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a luna...
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/) . If the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on. While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previ...
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states. It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10). The index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&amp;campaignid=democracyindex2019) . As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy. What will that number be in the 2040 report? This question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if ...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64%
Description: [Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- White wins 2-- Black wins 3-- Forced draw If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if --- it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides --- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
# Forecasts: 163
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51%
Description: [Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance) . The endowment's mission is ["to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations."](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/) . The Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal? On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019? If the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this questi...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids) . According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars. When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a "passenger car", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy...
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. [As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or "National Debt" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) [You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.
# Forecasts: 104
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised. [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems. As of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm) . For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maxi...
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: [Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is "awareness or sentience of internal or external existence". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being "at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives". This question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness) . Instead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious? Resolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. Metaculus team should ask the AI: 1--Are you conscious? 2--Should the question "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? This question will res...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics. Suppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively. What is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)? --- Drugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 --- Non-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging...
# Forecasts: 70
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging) . A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years. This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:* By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3%
Description: The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515) . If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.
# Forecasts: 102
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will North Korea become a democracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom) . A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&amp;LangID=E), "the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world." The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. North Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world. January 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), "the level of human development when inequality is accounted for," whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is "an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality)." While the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index. What will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will be the next "Great Power" war?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias....
# Forecasts: 112
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space. SENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. As a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information. Here's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year wer...
# Forecasts: 81
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China. The chosen metrics are, --- [Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). --- [Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). --- [The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all) . If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously. This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates ...
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/) The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. The index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions. Conceptually: Exact calculation...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6. [IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%. When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai? Resolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exi...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.
# Forecasts: 68
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades. Washington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html) The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations. The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an a...
# Forecasts: 111
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&amp;KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? The minimum wage will be decided by the [US...
# Forecasts: 183
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. Dates of note --- For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231) . --- The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. --- The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). --- This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)) . Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on ...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) . An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take. Question: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans? Resolution details: ---Only humans in the observable universe count. ---"Humans" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them.
# Forecasts: 136
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters. Physical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then. I ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere...
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013. In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers a...
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: [Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. The US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been rat...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The S&amp;P 500, or simply the S&amp;P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) The S&amp;P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.
# Forecasts: 113
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 62%
Description: Context ======= The kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand. According to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) . Question and Resolution ======================= Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)) : George Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? This question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a technology replace screens?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide) . What do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. Screens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television) . But nothing lasts forever. This question asks, "When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with sc...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective. A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is "a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals." The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home) —is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization. Sponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant re...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. "Annual return" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.
# Forecasts: 98
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 59%
Description: Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986) . This sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law) ; crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites. Joe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity. If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty...
# Forecasts: 38
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Croatia adopt the euro?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back. This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro? This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en) . It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket. SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.). When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? Starship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, "Starship" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will we have a new Pope?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam) . This question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting. If the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time. In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be "very strong" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? If no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolv...
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are "low-hanging fruit": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines. One way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projec...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&amp;P 500 index achieve? "Annual return" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.
# Forecasts: 126
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13%
Description: According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years. [Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. This question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations? Only one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive res...
# Forecasts: 106
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on. While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's "cost per life saved" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities? GiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-c...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Will Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024? This question resolves positively if all of the following occur: --- Metaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question ------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries --- The payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) --- An individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024 If Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. According to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids). Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? This question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA. It will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 20...
# Forecasts: 150
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats. Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales) . As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. See also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)
# Forecasts: 38
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats. Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales) . As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. This questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? The total enrollment in all college programs at all college le...
# Forecasts: 104
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers. The user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then. This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja? Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion. This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
# Forecasts: 149
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/) . An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772) ; this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. Recently, ...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive....
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 71%
Description: [The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values) : "global humanitarianism", "risk tolerance and patience", and "action in the face of humanity". More broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under "effective altruist principles" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause. In the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles? The question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3%
Description: The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) . Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) . However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) . However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) . Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030? The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. Resolution deta...
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4680/when-will-the-population-size-of-india-surpass-the-population-size-of-china/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: You can find the (estimated) real-time population size of India [here](https://countrymeters.info/en/India), and the real-time population size of China [here](https://countrymeters.info/en/China) . On what date will India show a higher population count than China?
# Forecasts: 186
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Donald Trump is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election? This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's delfator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)). If Donald Trump is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously. Note that the question resolves positively, even if Donald Trump does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office). This is is part of a pair of questions along with a similar question about [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcaptia-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/) inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic. Apparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 1...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model. Their univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047. As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$. What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$? Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) .
# Forecasts: 112
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= In 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018) . Question ======== What will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars? Resolution ========== Resolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority: ---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination ---A report from another body of the United Nations ---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson ---A report by another credible source If the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0. If the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an int...
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= In 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030. Many electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts ar...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic) : On April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of tho...
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4721/when-will-us-auto-manufacturing-recover-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-production-levels/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The automotive industry directly employs hundreds of thousands of people in the US, and indirectly affects the jobs of millions more through a complex and globally integrated supply chain. In February 2020, the Bureau of Economic Analysis [reports](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/table3.htm) US automakers produced 11.4M cars and trucks, consistent with the average production rate of 11.5M cars and trucks per month between 2015-2019. In March, that number fell to 7.2M, and in April it cratered to 176,000. In early May, news outlets began [reporting](https://www.npr.org/2020/05/04/850107160/u-s-automakers-are-slowly-rolling-toward-a-restart) small numbers of plant re-openings, as manufacturers prepared to resume operations with coronavirus protective measures in place. The first of the three biggest US automakers to make its move, Toyota began it’s reopening process on May 11, with [13 assembly plants](https://www.expressnews.com/business/local/artic...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
Description: Will the New York Times end up publishing any articles mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander between 2020-07-01 and 2021-07-01? We already have a Metaculus prediction about [if/when such an article is published it will include his full name](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4697/short-fuse-given-that-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-on-scott-alexander-will-it-include-his-full-name/) . However, that question very much depends on this one, whether they will go ahead with any article in the first place. Since if they are only 1% likely to go ahead then it might be moot whether the name would be included. It doesn't have to be the currently anticipated article by the currently anticipated NYT author in the currently anticipated topic. Any author's NYT-published article in any topic that mentions either him or his blog is eligible to resolve this question positively. This question resolves positively if any time between 2020-07-01 00:01 UTC and 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC any article is pu...
# Forecasts: 534
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869. When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000? This question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been &lt;1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. ...
# Forecasts: 227
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 44%
Description: Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states) . On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the...
# Forecasts: 300
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: [New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) "Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken. Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? Th...
# Forecasts: 138
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 62%
Description: PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. [PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive &amp; developmental problems, liver &amp; kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. [Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704) According to the BBC: It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say. The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak. The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways. They found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018. Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed. The virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains). [A peer-reviewed paper from the ...
# Forecasts: 60
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Context Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? Resolution Criteria This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the ...
# Forecasts: 1197
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 96%
Description: Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent ' [leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill) '. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia) . In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two ma...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. Currently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination. Alcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html) : Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neu...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4783/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-mentioning-slate-star-codex-or-scott-alexander-by-july-2021-will-it-include-his-full-name/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85%
Description: On June 22nd, Scott Alexander took down the blog Slate Star Codex due to an in-progress article by a technology reporter from the New York Times, replacing it with [a post](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-my-safety-by-revealing-my-real-name-so-i-am-deleting-the-blog/) explaining his rationale. According to Alexander, the journalist was going to publish Scott's real name in association with his blog in this article, as part of a general NYT policy of including real names in articles. While [no article was published within two weeks](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4697/short-fuse-given-that-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-on-scott-alexander-will-it-include-his-full-name/) of this, the Metaculus community median currently assigns a high probability that some article mentioning the topic [will be released by July 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/) . If the NYT publish...
# Forecasts: 382
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths. Cryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible. Chances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops. I thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in t...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: [Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virt...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a universal flu vaccine be available?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains. For at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highl...
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part. There remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner. There are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the "war on drugs" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated. Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists. If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the ["Culture War"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going o...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 ["Tesla stock price is too high imo."](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billio...
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections. Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activ...
# Forecasts: 107
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php) . See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, 1-- The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacte...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. What will be the ...
# Forecasts: 110
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 71%
Description: Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin), an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world. Chauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added. Some have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From [a Medium post](https://medium.com/@gavrilodavid/why-derek-chauvin-may-get-off-his-murder-charge-2e2ad8d0911), There are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of...
# Forecasts: 489
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 74%
Description: [Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2020/) is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021. In 2020, EA Global conferences in London and San Francisco were both cancelled due to COVID-19. Will EA Global: London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online? The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location at the scheduled dates. It resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. Note that resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. There were 2 previous questions on 2020 EA Global conferences (which — unlike this question — aske...
# Forecasts: 121
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 66%
Description: Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud. More details can be found here: --- [https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) --- [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant. This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes: ---Markus Braun ---Jan Marsalek ---Alexander von Knoop ---Susanne Steidl ---Jan Marsalek ---Oliver Bellenhaus The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researc...
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data) . On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/) . This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of d...
# Forecasts: 220
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the VIX index fall below 20?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. VIX represents the expected range of the S&amp;P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of &lt;20%, equivalent to a 30 day movement of (20% ÷ √12 =) ±5.77%. Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data) . Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX) . The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is below 20.0, as per the CBOE's daily updated [csv...
# Forecasts: 234
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the VIX index climb above 50?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. It represents the expected range of the S&amp;P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of &lt;20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data) . Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX) . The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68%
Description: China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?" The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.
# Forecasts: 103
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/) . While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? ---This question resolves as the date when Blue Ori...
# Forecasts: 77
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc. When will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? ---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following cha...
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. Heavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) si...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC. These electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions: --- [Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party. --- [Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.or...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a "phantom genre." The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying. Will a Sc...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch "Manhattan project" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. A [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the "lead up" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be "on the runway"? As an assessment of that question, we ask here: When will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI ...
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars. In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. [SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030? Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.wo...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: GPT stands for "Generative Pre-Training" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), The scali...
# Forecasts: 329
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2? This question will resolve a...
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. [Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target. This question asks: On 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vest...
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. [CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store o...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? Th...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22%
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. [Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be sel...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. [CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using br...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass. [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores, A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms. In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data. The photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures. Th...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17%
Description: In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP, a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission. The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission: The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...] Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress. If...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51%
Description: A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence. Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training. One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? This question will re...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/) . However, GPT-3 is not yet available. This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allow...
# Forecasts: 104
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. [/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as "&gt; 2025-12-31".
# Forecasts: 94
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6%
Description: Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit) an American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website. A host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). This question asks: Will any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) ? The list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows: --- [minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) --- [voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) --- [steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com]...
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42%
Description: Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people, --- Amazon Mechanical Turk workers --- Redditors on /r/samplesize --- A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members. --- Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent "the people". asking them In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated? A list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's ["Year in Search"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. For the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking i...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 66%
Description: The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762) . Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/), LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!” This prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025? Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a "trans...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/) . Dean Mullen writes, Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries. and Jeff T Kaufman countered with, Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050. No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from "legal and common" to "completely banned" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me. If the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively. The rules for resolution are specified as follows, 1-- The b...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session. How many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress? For reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below. * Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to m...
# Forecasts: 43
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/) . This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1. Reduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https:...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time. Since that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most "veteran" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...
# Forecasts: 142
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/) . Much of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as "one of [the] highest-impact options" for those who have "the potential to excel" in those paths. In 2020, the priority paths are: --- AI policy and strategy research and implementation --- AI safety technical researcher --- Grantmaker focused on top areas --- Work in effective altruism organisations --- Global priorities researcher --- Biorisk strategy and policy --- China specialists --- Earning to give in quant trading --- Decision-making psychology...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 'worm wars'?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72%
Description: According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained) . In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the stud...
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4920/how-many-charities-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-launch-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants) . Due to the pandemic, Charity Entrepreneurship's incubation programme has moved online in 2020. This question asks: By the end of 2021, how many new charities will have been founded by graduates of Charity Entrepreneurship's incubation program? Charities founded before the opening of this question are not counted in the total. Resolution will be according to the Charity Entrepreneurship website, and/or credible media rep...
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity. GiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated....
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, "soft power" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/) . Could this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as "kinetic conflict") in the near future? Some Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji) : When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon. The tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent. My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some k...
# Forecasts: 141
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 14.000000000000002%
Description: [The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are: --- [The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) --- [Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) --- [Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) --- [P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) --- [Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) --- [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) --- [Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://w...
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex? This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range. [Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018). As of 2019, the company is developing a veh...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the Woke index in US elite media top?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening) . These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/) . There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point. Resolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top? ---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9) . ---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. ---The question resolves as the maxim...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans. Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) . The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks: When will...
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA. After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger. Will the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments? This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552) : The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization. US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks) : Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in "organized terror attacks" designed to tear down government institutions. “Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in a...
# Forecasts: 245
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: [Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [In the discussion thread posted 27th May 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/), a feature is noted as being in the works "Invite people to predict on your private questions, on a per-question basis." Similarly, [a comment from 25th June 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/#comment-34260) saying this feature is highly desirable has +5. Thus, it would appear that the feature is highly sought and already noted as being in development for more than 2 years. So the question is: When will the feature to share a private question go live? --- The feature must be available to online on the live version of the website, not a beta or private version. --- The feature must be available to regular users, not some small fraction of users on a test basis. --- It must be possible to have designated users join in a given forecast and the summary statistics shown, the same way ...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon), The marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy. The best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge) . A [1991 paper](https://pubmed...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4950/when-will-traviswfisher-be-unseated-on-the-metaculus-leaderboard/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The Metaculus leaderboard](https://www.metaculus.com/rankings/) shows the top players by cumulative points earned for resolved questions. As of August 7th 2020, the top user is [traviswfisher](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100518/) with 23184 total points. This question asks, what will be the earliest date after August 7th 2020 in which traviswfisher is no longer the top player? In the case the Metaculus leaderboard is overhauled, this question resolves ambiguously. The question resolves as "&gt; Aug 7, 2030" if traviswfisher are not unseated by then.
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios) . Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions. How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? Resolutio...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html) : Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck. So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? ---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.
# Forecasts: 111
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the first baby be born away from Earth?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question simply asks: When will the first baby be born away from Earth? The question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at &gt;2120. Similar questions: --- [Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) --- [One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will One Piece end?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.) . So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying...
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/) . [Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs). Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin "threads" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brain...
# Forecasts: 110
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N) . The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution. The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,5571...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. The World B...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 16%
Description: A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy) a very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...] Because of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success. One such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the l...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- The 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. A key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a...
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: 13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number). In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- Solar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle. [Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fi...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- Levels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) . In the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission) . For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html) . As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerabil...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- The solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. As [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports: “Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” Forecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orb...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- The end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. The minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) . As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of exten...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 49%
Description: Context ------- The Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling. As [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article: “With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the lon...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, “The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.” Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in ...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster. The current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) . Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)). This question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds? If no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as &gt;2100. Liam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (so...
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of ...
# Forecasts: 62
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61%
Description: If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) . If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology: ---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. ---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] ---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. ---Calculate the ratio of C's t...
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) "the market value of all the final goods and services produced". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources. One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China). Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030? Resolution will be based on [World Bank...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths) . These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation. Overall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year. While deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution) ; the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years. How many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030? Resolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Stud...
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64%
Description: There is an active question on ["Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom) . Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK...
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5034/will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: High profile means at least two credible media sources report that a criminal investigation resulted in a hidden site on the Tor Network became unavailable. No arrests need to be made. Some historical data, each of which would qualify if they took place in 2021: Silk Road was taken down in 2013, along with Freedom Hosting Operation Onymous shut down hundreds of sites in 2014 Operation Pacifier shut down Playpen in 2015 Operation Bayonet shut down AlphaBay and others in 2017 Some examples that would not count: Operation Babylon shut down a website in 2015, but I don't see mainstream media coverage, so it would not be considered high profile. [https://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d6…](https://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d637e29f) this has arrests in 2019, but the story mentions the site shut down prior to those arrests Berlusconi was shut down in 2019 with arrests, but against no mainstream media coverage I don't see anything in 2016 or 2018-20 that would qualify under thes...
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use. At the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show...
# Forecasts: 180
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) . For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: "All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would...
# Forecasts: 55
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ------- The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: “ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” Beisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten t...
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3%
Description: The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson: Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of "British" and "exit") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Followin...
# Forecasts: 128
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. This question will resolve positively if: ---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. This question will resolve ambiguously if: ---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024.
# Forecasts: 451
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon) the transition will start with first Macs being released by the end of 2020. What will be the date when Apple ships Macs based on Apple silicon? This question will resolve with the first shipping date provided during the checkout process in the Apple online shop on [apple.com](http://apple.com) . The product in question must be a Mac, must be sold to consumers, and must list "Apple Silicon" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. If no such product is available by the resolution date, then the question will resolve as the upper bound.
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: [Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson) : Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2](born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016. Carlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4] Originally a proponent of libertari...
# Forecasts: 167
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html) : Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border. The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others "orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors". The indictment claims the "scheme" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. [Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-tr...
# Forecasts: 301
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. 'Chinese-based' includes mainl...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make &lt;$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. Will Hanson win the bet? Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
# Forecasts: 160
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-b...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this "general" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, ...
# Forecasts: 143
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S. The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/) . Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021? This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met: ---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/) . ---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually he...
# Forecasts: 94
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 16%
Description: Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/) : A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees) . One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha) ....
# Forecasts: 460
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization. By estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago. Many theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. 22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. 37 countries came out with support: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia. A great many more have remained neutral. The question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, ch...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 73%
Description: Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html) . Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837) . Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3) . This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question ["When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3. Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? This question resolves posit...
# Forecasts: 65
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41%
Description: In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? This question resolves: ---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. ---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020.
# Forecasts: 219
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41%
Description: Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively. Will the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's ...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21%
Description: Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house) . Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likel...
# Forecasts: 306
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage) . When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency? ---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage) . ---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. ---In case the question...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap. [Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12) . Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811) . However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under develop...
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first human head transplant occur?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached. Much more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive. Recently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape? Automakers can expect to incur R&amp;D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&amp;IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/merced...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24%
Description: Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), follow...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. With access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks. By contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the train...
# Forecasts: 101
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al [retracted](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797619897915) a much discussed paper (Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ). Similarly, Hans Eysenck has in recent years been facing [numerous retraction requests](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/misconduct-allegations-push-psychology-hero-his-pedestal) concerning his work with [Ronald Grossarth-Maticek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Grossarth-Maticek) on personality and health. Finally, very recently, a paper by Phil Rushton was [retracted](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886912000840), Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals?: This article (Rushton, J. P., &amp; Templer, D. I. (2012). ...
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: [Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves pos...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index), The S&amp;P 500, or simply the S&amp;P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high. Historical total returns for the S&amp;P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns) . What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&amp;P 500 in the 2020s? This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual grow...
# Forecasts: 74
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the "Three Nos": "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..." Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. 60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel? How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027...
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11%
Description: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america) . [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of ["The Squad"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. Americans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032. Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? This question resolves positively if Alexandria O...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation. For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as "Yes".
# Forecasts: 240
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols. Recently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) . Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? The question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt. The question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus ...
# Forecasts: 199
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 62%
Description: The IKEA Museum website provides [a complete archive of IKEA Catalogues](https://ikeamuseum.com/sv/ikea-kataloger/), currently covering yearl from 1950 to 2021. The first cover to feature a human figure comes in 1970, with some portion of a human then visible on the cover for the following years: 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. That is, in 71 years, 22 of IKEA's yearly catalogues have featured a human on the cover. But the catalogue history has seen a number of 'dry spells'. Changing expectations and fashions in corporate advertising are visible across this period, and IKEA's dominance in the 'affordable' homeware/furniture market shows no immediate signs of declining. The annual catalogue is also seen as a particularly important feature of the company's marketing. It [reportedly](https://web.archive.org/web/20040622103715/http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press_room/student_info.ht...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From Wikipedia, A capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...] In the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate. This question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size), Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese. Advocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https:/...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300) . The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task. The test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below. They found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. This question asks: How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. Related questions: --- [Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic) . But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country? While seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today. Define an emigration crisis as: ---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis? To operationalize this further, --- For something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where &gt;=10 Metaculus use...
# Forecasts: 69
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) . These organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other. What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active? If no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously. If only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the sca...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks: What fraction of England’s population will live ...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. The question asks: When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled: 1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. 2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. 3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. The rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed. Similar questions: --- [When wil...
# Forecasts: 100
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. Tesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. "I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year" -Elon Musk in April 2019. The question asks: When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled: 1--At least 5 Metaculus user...
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. In April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called "Waymo One"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up. By November 2019, ...
# Forecasts: 81
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 53%
Description: [Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes: And you can also play on hard mode: "During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak." Lesswrong has hosted an event ...
# Forecasts: 62
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/) . This version has an extended resolution date. In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine. [Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds ...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23%
Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
# Forecasts: 43
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42%
Description: The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “ [Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/) ”, which raises the question of l...
# Forecasts: 98
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23%
Description: [String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf) roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets. In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize. Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.
# Forecasts: 55
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68%
Description: Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014. He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg) However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated). Resolves negatively if for any reason Er...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations. During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+). This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031? How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031? The question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as re...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: [Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) : Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? If ...
# Forecasts: 228
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a "hybrid regime" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030) . What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 59%
Description: Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1) : Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud. The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government. [In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mca...
# Forecasts: 43
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last ' [uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples) ': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/) . Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe) . Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens. The Government of India requires a permit to visit th...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) . So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same ar...
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 48%
Description: The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the "Conservatives" or "Tories". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/) . If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London. If the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new ...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43%
Description: The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010. Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/) . If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London. If the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party. In case the Labour party does not continue in its ...
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media) In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&amp;utm_term=link&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_...
# Forecasts: 150
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: [Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States. On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted: I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google. Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: "By market cap or evil?", and Paul Graham responded: By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is. Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027. Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. I...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was "disgusted" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are " [explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html) ." When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published? This question resolves when the letters in question are made public.
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: --- [Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/) ; --- [The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html) . Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either: ---An explicit tax on childlessness. ---A tax levied on each person except those...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 36%
Description: This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies. European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of "enriched" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj) . EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free. In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA websi...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease. Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected. The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75...
# Forecasts: 192
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)). What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) ---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. ---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous.
# Forecasts: 147
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Machine translation [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_translation), is a sub-field of computational linguistics that investigates the use of software to translate text or speech from one language to another. On a basic level, MT performs mechanical substitution of words in one language for words in another, but that alone rarely produces a good translation because recognition of whole phrases and their closest counterparts in the target language is needed. Not all words in one language have equivalent words in another language, and many words have more than one meaning. Solving this problem with corpus statistical and neural techniques is a rapidly-growing field that is leading to better translations, handling differences in linguistic typology, translation of idioms, and the isolation of anomalies. How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021? Growth is measured by number of results obtained by Google Scholar for the term "machine translation" (without quotes) f...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors. It also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction. The Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide...
# Forecasts: 131
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will be the next S&P 500 correction?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. When will be the next S&amp;P 500 correction? The S&amp;P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.
# Forecasts: 69
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72%
Description: There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) [This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate. Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: related questions: --- [When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) --- [What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) --- [When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) In 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont...
# Forecasts: 14
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada ...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 18%
Description: NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030. SpaceX has been working on its own "Mars" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352) . Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026. Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? The resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events: 1) A mission substantially (&gt;30%...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. [https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing) . Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: 1-- [Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf) . The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. 2-- [WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843) . WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. 3-- [WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843) . The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. 4-- [1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf) . The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 ...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision) . Amongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five: 1-- [ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. 2-- [STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms. 3-- [CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, sh...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the "New world" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII. It may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth. ...
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12%
Description: [In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb). However, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761) . There is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/) . Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023? This question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but...
# Forecasts: 127
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf) . This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf) . When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? This question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. Positive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account. Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selectin...
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919), I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis. You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court. Foreseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be incl...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's h...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. The option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020. Uber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch. As Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes: “Research suggests that the average ride-hai...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. Governor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as: “including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).” The [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-i...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5539/dc-fast-public-charging-stations-by-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Level 3 charging, also known as DC Fast charging, typically can provide [124 miles in 30 minutes, or 249 miles in an hour](https://chargehub.com/en/electric-car-charging-guide.html) using 50kW of power. The expected ratio of EVs to charging stations in 2021 is [28.2](https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/), a significant barrier to EV adoption by the general public who often experience range anxiety. If consumers feel there are not enough public charging stations, fewer of them will buy electric vehicles. This prompts the need for massive charging infrastructure to be built within America as well as across the world. Previous reports for the number of public DC Fast charging stations place approximately [9,898 outlets/connections](https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/) as of March 2019 (retrieved from the same AFDC map in the resolution criteria). This is a leap up from the [7,223 connections](https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/)...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.000000000000001%
Description: A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference. We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states "judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional. Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030. An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death.
# Forecasts: 68
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 73%
Description: The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: 1--Number of Gold Medals 2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo O...
# Forecasts: 55
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/) Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics) : 2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th Will they come in the Top 4 again? Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: 1--Number of Gold Medals 2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.” In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges. What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? This question resolves as the percentage of ...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 79%
Description: The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of "Dow Jones Index of Happiness". According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing) . Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the "English-speaking world".
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21%
Description: On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC) : Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick. Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses. The "always open" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store clos...
# Forecasts: 191
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: [The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee) . Will they go ahead? Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
# Forecasts: 796
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250) . In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of th...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions) . A month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric) . Lyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require: The shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on t...
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. With new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price. Low prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environ...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/elect...
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy) “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.” This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well. The International Energy Association (IEA) states that: “Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle ...
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Markets and Markets reports that: “The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally ov...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 59%
Description: Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. As reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) . The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019. The United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national car...
# Forecasts: 38
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/) . With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/) . In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-...
# Forecasts: 95
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/), Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain. As of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they nee...
# Forecasts: 43
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model), A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list), widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic. Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections) : The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans. Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections? This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.
# Forecasts: 171
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchu...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/) . The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus) . What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for obser...
# Forecasts: 77
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/) . The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and...
# Forecasts: 131
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/) . The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and...
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour. In terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00. Joe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/) . When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? The resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution. If the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously. The question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now. Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change? When will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth? This question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away ...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6. What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) . If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us) . If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) . If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker) . If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguou...
# Forecasts: 168
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as &lt;2.
# Forecasts: 100
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) For a precise question we'll ask: When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Both Microsoft and Google are working on building Quantum Computers. Google achieved [Quantum Supremecy](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/09/20/132923/google-researchers-have-reportedly-achieved-quantum-supremacy/) in 2019. Microsoft already has a website that previews [Azure Quantum](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/quantum/) . Given that both companies have cloud offerings and the first Quantum Computers are going to be really expensive it makes sense to rent out compute on those computers to willing custumers of their cloud offerings. When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud? This question will resolve as the day on which quantum computing services can be brought via the cloud (as normal compute in cloud computing can be brought in 2020). On the date of resolution, prices for quantum compute must be openly advertised and any user must be able to sign up without first having to be on a waiting list. If these conditions are not met by the end of 2...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/) . At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay) . Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch. [Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy...
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/) . The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions...
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) . In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/) . Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/20...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutra...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/) . There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-s...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: [Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/) : on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning. In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response: That’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely. When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company? This question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels: ---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing ---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company ---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company --- This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. --- This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before ...
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in whic...
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx) . One of the issues they ask about is "Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur." As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030? What will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030? This question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambi...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.99999999999999%
Description: Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/) . Jeff McAulay argued, Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents. Stephen Zoepf countered, I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/) . Joseph F. Huttner argued, 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...] 2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...] 3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...] 4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster ...
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: [Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition. As of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https...
# Forecasts: 250
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 37%
Description: [Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) . A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests) . As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing) . It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but quali...
# Forecasts: 175
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT be administered to 100M people? This question resolves as the date when ...
# Forecasts: 292
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 65%
Description: By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if ["maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better."](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, ["Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity."](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://proje...
# Forecasts: 295
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/) . In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/) . This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. This question asks: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new stra...
# Forecasts: 355
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China) . [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/) . [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/) . China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about "per capita" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? ---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) . ---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. Related questions: --- [When ...
# Forecasts: 60
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? The question will resolve: 1--Rishi Sunak 2--Michael Gove 3--Jeremy Hunt 4--Priti Patel 5--None of the above The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
# Forecasts: 153
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence) . However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Sect...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 98%
Description: Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already [several strong declared and potential candidates](https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/major-2021-mayoral-contenders.html), including [Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/eric-adams-runs-for-new-york-city-mayor.html) . Yang has confirmed that [he is actively considering](http://www.wcny.org/andrew-yang-for-nyc-mayor-tbd/) a bid. Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New Yor...
# Forecasts: 360
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT? This question resolves as the date...
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal) . Since then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008)) There have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions: There are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management) . (His imprisonment would result in t...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will GTA VI be released in the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV) . When will GTA VI be released? This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the ...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity) . [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy &gt;90%. [Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020...
# Forecasts: 530
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble) . What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021? Specifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000. For example: ---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. [There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://e...
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) . Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Cons...
# Forecasts: 105
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of ...
# Forecasts: 109
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) . Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, fo...
# Forecasts: 69
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Anothe...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: According to [STAT](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/), early results from an AstraZeneca trial showed 70% efficacy. But that average hid a discrepancy: Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741. This half dose-full dose regimen was [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q), in a non-random fashion, therefore violating the randomization assumption of an RCT. Because of this failure in study design, the [CEO of AstraZeneca told Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/astra-likely-to-run-fresh-global-covid-vaccine-trial-ceo-says) that the company wants ...
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) . When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. [Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufactur...
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How large will Monaco be in 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. To continue economic development and ...
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet), Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...] From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing. A prominent histor...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible. Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available. [Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated "as early as April": When asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded "We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think". [HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by "March or early April": It’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... "for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.” [Former FDA chief ...
# Forecasts: 330
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 28.999999999999996%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negoti...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ ...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. Mathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052) Data of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html) . When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp. The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) . Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves "Yes" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves "No" otherwise. If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves "No". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both o...
# Forecasts: 449
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. Boulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, no...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. Orange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United...
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will China land the next person on the Moon?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23%
Description: Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk ...
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior. Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). This question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/) . I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology) . It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time. How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? This question r...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82%
Description: Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), "about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_...
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even...
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence) Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time? By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on ast...
# Forecasts: 80
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) the...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous Related quest...
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/) . Robert D Atkinson argued, U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the "low hanging fruit has been picked." Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the "s-curve" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor) Alberto Forchielli countered, We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&amp;D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by ...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51%
Description: Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/) . Robert D Atkinson argued, Increasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the "robots are killing our jobs" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward. Alberto Forchielli countered, The ...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble) What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030? Specifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000. For example: ---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/) . This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) . [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wi...
# Forecasts: 174
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wik...
# Forecasts: 265
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will online poker die by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17%
Description: In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of mi...
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), Gross domestic spending on R&amp;D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&amp;D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&amp;D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&amp;D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&amp;D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&amp;D. What will that number be in 2030? What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&amp;D in 2030? This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&amp;D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OE...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election), Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was "the most secure in American history." Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was "no evidence of widespread fraud" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories ...
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 53%
Description: Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. 2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the ["gold standard"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890) . Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx) . The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by ...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Open Courts Act become law?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
Description: The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. Will the Open Courts Act become law? This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures. [Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. [The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project. SpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lun...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: [The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces. As of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. Throughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. The Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visu...
# Forecasts: 134
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process...
# Forecasts: 137
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/) . According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2005 at 68.31%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in...
# Forecasts: 160
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems. How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's "original submission date". Details of the search query For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in "all fields": "AI ethics", "AI fairness", "racial bias", "gender bias", "algorithmic bias" The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operat...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behav...
# Forecasts: 189
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf) . The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) . The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang...
# Forecasts: 155
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf) . [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al.,...
# Forecasts: 160
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the se...
# Forecasts: 194
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behav...
# Forecasts: 144
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a f...
# Forecasts: 153
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones...
# Forecasts: 129
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The MiniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/p...
# Forecasts: 280
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is YOLOv4- large [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.08036v1.pdf), which achieves an average precision (AP) of 55.8. An excell...
# Forecasts: 168
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index: Image classific...
# Forecasts: 166
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
# Forecasts: 165
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.
# Forecasts: 399
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) . This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson &amp; Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html) . [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. What will be the total n...
# Forecasts: 157
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November]([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study) . The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-comm...
# Forecasts: 164
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' I...
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) . This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the ...
# Forecasts: 174
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 31%
Description: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737) . Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on an...
# Forecasts: 163
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/) . It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option. Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resol...
# Forecasts: 119
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016. Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame. If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.
# Forecasts: 198
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 4 November 2020, the U.S. [formally withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743) . This comes after President Trump announced such a move in June 2017, though it did not take effect until 4 November 2020. President-elect Joe Biden has [indicated](https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/) he will recommit the U.S. to the Paris Climate Agreement. Biden [would not need Senate support](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/biden-to-rejoin-paris-climate-accord-heres-what-happens-next-.html) to rejoin since the accord is an executive agreement. Biden’s administration will just have to send a letter to the United Nations stating the intention to rejoin, and the official return would take effect in 30 days. When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by the future Biden administration in which it states that it is formally intending to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. This would mean tha...
# Forecasts: 293
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67%
Description: The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference) . It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.
# Forecasts: 98
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 19%
Description: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/) . President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html) . Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the ...
# Forecasts: 102
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) . Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
Description: Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0) . The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.
# Forecasts: 140
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent) .) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/) . With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on th...
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is kNN-L...
# Forecasts: 157
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU) . Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth) . Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5) . As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020...
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: The S&amp;P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&amp;P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&amp;P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
# Forecasts: 226
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&amp;P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp) . They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&amp;P 500. What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&amp;P500? This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&amp;P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&amp;P 500 market value.
# Forecasts: 185
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption) . However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and dem...
# Forecasts: 196
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/) . As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales...
# Forecasts: 110
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019. What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? Flightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT? This question resolves as the date...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikip...
# Forecasts: 222
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others. What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2021-06-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM) . Prices are to be given in nominal USD. In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be sc...
# Forecasts: 182
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) [(Wang et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasises diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is T5: Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer [(Raffel et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which achieves an average score 89.3, just below the human baseline of 89.8 The SuperGLUE leaderboard may be accessed [here](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboa...
# Forecasts: 236
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguis...
# Forecasts: 165
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikip...
# Forecasts: 195
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250) . In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squa...
# Forecasts: 183
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy? This...
# Forecasts: 178
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. &amp; Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.
# Forecasts: 96
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before Feb...
# Forecasts: 68
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the se...
# Forecasts: 170
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is kNN-L...
# Forecasts: 168
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index: Image classific...
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wik...
# Forecasts: 149
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/) . According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in...
# Forecasts: 143
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/) . This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) . [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wi...
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD). Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind) . Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD? This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, accor...
# Forecasts: 201
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikip...
# Forecasts: 161
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserv...
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones...
# Forecasts: 179
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a f...
# Forecasts: 238
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14? Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index: Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full bo...
# Forecasts: 172
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or "instant runoff" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outri...
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82%
Description: An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot. The Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race. The current recall petition has currently collected [495 thousand](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-sixth.pdf) signatures out of the 1.5 million needed. Will California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ? This question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a r...
# Forecasts: 428
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: The 50th Glastonbury Festival was supposed to take place in 2020, but was [cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-glastonbury-festival/) . It is now [scheduled to take place 23rd - 27th June 2021](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-glastonbury-festival/#FAQ) . The organisers are ['doing everything they can' to make the festival go ahead in 2021, but are 'still quite a long way from being able to say we're confident 2021 will go ahead'](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55315202) . Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021? This question resolves positively if a Glastonbury Festival with at least 100,000 people present and lasting at least 72 hours takes place in Pilton, Somerset in 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 63
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [ [1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/)) ], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/) . These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta...
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers ...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded. As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations. Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were: ---2008: $312 ---2009: $138 ---2010: $284 ---2011: $336 ---2012: $375 ---2013: $434 ---2014 $544 ---2015 $512 ---2016 $610 ...
# Forecasts: 38
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: Context ======= Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021. Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? Resolution Criteria =================== Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx) . Data until Q2 is currently available. Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)
# Forecasts: 38
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&amp;C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf) : Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and incr...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 67%
Description: Context ======= In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. Heading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic dure...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= In the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized). A [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. A new [COVID-19 relief bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/what-is-in-the-bipartisan-coronavirus-relief-bill-unveiled-monday.html) came before Congress this Monday, December 14th, offering $908 billion dollars. “The package is broken into two bills: The $738 billion Bipartisan Emergency COVID Relief Act of 2020 includes funding for enhanced unemployment benefits, anoth...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth) . The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%. What will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? Resolution Criteria =================== This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should c...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge. This question asks: How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. If HIA ceases to exis...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. [Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&amp;src=typeahead_click) : For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days aft...
# Forecasts: 115
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior. Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated. This question asks: How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of q...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge. Two questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) This question asks: What fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earni...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99%
Description: There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below. In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/) . This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. On 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375) a new set of national restrictions, including a "Tier 4" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period. It is at least in p...
# Forecasts: 299
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
Description: On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: The new variant has mutations to the spike ...
# Forecasts: 152
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are "probable healthcare-associated infections". In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? --- Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes. --- Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates). --- If no estimates are available at resolve time, ...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring) : Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more "natural evolution" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries wou...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&amp;iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&amp;iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated: “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.” A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation cr...
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#) . Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in " [Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/) ", the evaluation criteria are described in " [Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) ". Will any of the nonprofit...
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60%
Description: Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#) . Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in " [Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/) ", the evaluation criteria are described in " [Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) ". Will any of the nonprofit...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? To qualify as a "top", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced. If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead. If ...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in " [Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/) ", the evaluation criteria are described in " [Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) ". As of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below "Top Charity". Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?...
# Forecasts: 81
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? Whether an event is a "scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances" will be resolved per the ["I know it when I see it"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution. This question belongs to the [Animal Chari...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 18%
Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. ACE explicitly includes "the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)" as part of "Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture", one of their seven [evaluation criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to [Encompass](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ePDKZMpoGdx7J3PBh/announcing-our-summer-2020-ace-movement-grants#Encom...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to "doing the most good" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction. How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to "doing the most good" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction. How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? This will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financial...
# Forecasts: 37
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: [Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? This question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true: A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic. B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, go...
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims "to re-open borders without quarantine" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of ["immunoprivilege,"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? --- Applies to verification of any aspect of COV...
# Forecasts: 110
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxa...
# Forecasts: 380
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/) ] [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency) . It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depres...
# Forecasts: 75
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 30%
Description: There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized. Some crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect. Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? This resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was pri...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the ["garrison" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. The Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and "rivers" and "seas" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History) . The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. Unusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of "rivers of mercury". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. The risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor o...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 74%
Description: Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.
# Forecasts: 77
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
# Forecasts: 369
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== The US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. In 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. Barring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research pap...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy. How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed ...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that: “As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with ...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 20...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== Between 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) . Movements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) . However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers. How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau ...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== The number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&amp;text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for stu...
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. In 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified. “The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.” In case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongl...
# Forecasts: 50
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== In 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) . In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. With the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the fed...
# Forecasts: 34
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== [Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars. While beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== The gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap) . Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. Considering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf) . Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourl...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68%
Description: On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [...
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The ending of the children's book " [I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&amp;%2AVersion%2A=1&amp;%2Aentries%2A=0&amp;ie=UTF8) " by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920) . So what do you think? When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book "I Want My Hat Back" and accurately answer the question: "What happened to the rabbit"? This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book "...
# Forecasts: 186
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) 's focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence) . In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 ---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) ---2018: $4,160,392 ---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) ---2016: $7,749,985 ---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their fo...
# Forecasts: 44
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 21%
Description: Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for "discriminating Russian media's content". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.
# Forecasts: 130
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Every year The Economist publishes the "Democracy Index," scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44. The numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories: --- Full democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019 --- Flawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019 --- Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019 --- Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a...
# Forecasts: 31
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35%
Description: U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) ; much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&amp;T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others. Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022? Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6104/b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: SARS-CoV-2 var. B.1.1.7, the coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom, is likely already seeded in most areas of the world. At question-writing time the community thinks it is [probably at least 50% more transmissible](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/) than previous strains. If so this is likely to have serious consequences. [The New York Times describes](https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-new-virus-variant-response-20201231-o7ducojblzbnrli7jdneisnc2u-story.html) the situation as "threatening to complicate what had seemed a hopeful, if halting, path to recovery" and quotes an expert describing "the overall picture" as "pretty grim." Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021? Resolves positive if at any point, a total of three million or more people in the United States are reported to be under lockdown specifically because of B117. "Lockdown" means, in general, extraor...
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immuni...
# Forecasts: 151
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/) ] In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c)...
# Forecasts: 48
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995. On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is perfo...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000. In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey. A charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first: 1--The charity becomes a legally register...
# Forecasts: 32
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. [The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London) . It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. --- If a candidate receives more than 50% o...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/) . However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will there be at least one billion Americans?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities. As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/) You can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vita...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that "basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society". In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit) . Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290) . This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4. However, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still on...
# Forecasts: 55
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing impro...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/) . However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as "basically a modified Argus II," it is likely to be approved within a few years. How good will the best available vis...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. This question will resolve on June 7th 2021...
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019. How much money will GiveWell move in 2031? If GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous. If GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous. For this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), "headline money moved" rather than "best guess of total money directed to charities").
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) ; [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai....
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022? For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degr...
# Forecasts: 88
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901....
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful b...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x) . A recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&amp;cid=F3C3887684911EE4&amp;id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&amp;parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&amp;o=OneUp) . A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one. Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-dru...
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc) . The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people. When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places? This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks. By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to ...
# Forecasts: 93
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc) . The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in "tier 1" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of p...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. 'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or wh...
# Forecasts: 64
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President. Although it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time. Until now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next. How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months? The question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the U...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: Context Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) This question asks, Will the United Stat...
# Forecasts: 162
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is k...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by th...
# Forecasts: 89
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250) . In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in ...
# Forecasts: 65
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including lin...
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.o...
# Forecasts: 73
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) ; [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai....
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/) . This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) . [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://e...
# Forecasts: 70
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy &gt;70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
# Forecasts: 193
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy &gt;70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
# Forecasts: 123
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.000000000000001%
Description: The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths) . This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/) . Data updates meaning that m...
# Forecasts: 354
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24%
Description: Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building. Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. Resolution by credible reports a...
# Forecasts: 99
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys), The Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments. According to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), We refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient. As of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients. How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? This question resolves as the number of patients st...
# Forecasts: 18
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the next interstellar object be discovered?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. Although only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained. When will the next interstellar object be discovered? This question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an ["I" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter....
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf) . [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et ...
# Forecasts: 65
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by th...
# Forecasts: 60
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is k...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of...
# Forecasts: 95
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? The index is constructed as follows: --- We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index --- The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index: Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [Crowd...
# Forecasts: 65
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/) . According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that...
# Forecasts: 79
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distr...
# Forecasts: 99
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Sof...
# Forecasts: 78
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan) : 4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. 4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. [This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55...
# Forecasts: 172
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.w...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&amp;gl=US&amp;ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. [According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first da...
# Forecasts: 117
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, pro...
# Forecasts: 56
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is YOLOv4- large [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.08036v1.pdf), which achieves an average precision (AP) of 55.8. An ex...
# Forecasts: 55
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal R...
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price ...
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? The index is constructed as follows: --- We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index --- The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index: Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [Crowd...
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM) . Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) . In the case the ...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) . What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the median wage for "Computer ...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. This should resolve according to [the "by date of death" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the "by date reported" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the...
# Forecasts: 98
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 33%
Description: As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. Here are some articles describing these issues: --- [Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) --- [The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](h...
# Forecasts: 141
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 61%
Description: As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) . The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. --- [US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) --- [U.S. poverty jumps the most in ...
# Forecasts: 58
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 66%
Description: In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are &gt;= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) . Related Questions --- [Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/quest...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, pro...
# Forecasts: 60
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ...
# Forecasts: 49
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.w...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.o...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Re...
# Forecasts: 60
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd) . Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods) . However, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543) . How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent? The question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) This question will resolve specifically according to the "% change 2019-2020" for the row "Total new STI diagnoses - total". This tota...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include: --- [Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) --- [Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) How many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to 2025 and while he is president? Here are the last seven presidents for comparison: Carter: 1.53 E.O./week Reagan: 0.91 E.O./week Bush I: 0.80 E.O./week Clinton: 0.87 E.O./week Bush II: 0.70 E.O./week Obama: 0.65 E.O./week Trump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21) How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? The [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.go...
# Forecasts: 47
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) : John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) . The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&amp;s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&amp;sy=1980&amp;ey=2020&amp;ssm=0&amp;scsm=1&amp;scc=0&amp;ssd=1&amp;ssc=0&amp;sic=0&amp;sort=country&amp;ds=.&amp;br=1) . Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: related question: --- [Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) Economic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) . With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder: What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029? This resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as this question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita.
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: [With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. ---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. ---Platforms must be open to the public.
# Forecasts: 125
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as "a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders," including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of ["immunoprivilege"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) ; professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured "if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are al...
# Forecasts: 35
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions: [When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) [When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US. When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the C...
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.) . Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) . When, if ever, will people &lt;18 years old vote in national elections in the US? This question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President. Only [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections ...
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens &lt;18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election. A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021. How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026? Broad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict &lt;18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country...
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 54%
Description: Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed "FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election.
# Forecasts: 170
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 84%
Description: [CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. -- [CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany) . CDU and CSU hold an agree...
# Forecasts: 62
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars. When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be? This question resolves to the time of the next Starship flight after the December SN8 flight. The criteria for "flight" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/) . This question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/), asking about the 3rd Starship flight.
# Forecasts: 242
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars. When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be? This question resolves to the time of the third Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. The criteria for "flight" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/) . This question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339), asking about the 2nd Starship flight.
# Forecasts: 103
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): ---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&amp;biw=1440&amp;bih=741&amp;tbm=nws&amp;ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&amp;q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&amp;oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&amp;search=minimum%20wage&amp;categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&amp;src=typed_query) . The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.taco...
# Forecasts: 108
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40%
Description: [Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled p...
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: [The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances: --- when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)), --- to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)), --- or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)). The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more ...
# Forecasts: 39
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. There is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, crypta...
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita) . The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP). When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? ---Countries with 1M population size only. ---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. On...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) --- [When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to . The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of est...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 75%
Description: In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either "in-person", "flexible", or "hybrid" with the large majority being listed as "remote". Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? This question resolved positive...
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, ["Will any festivals happen this summer?"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again. [Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season ...
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78%
Description: An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election) . This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021
# Forecasts: 67
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify) : Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. As of...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: [Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify) : Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. As of...
# Forecasts: 24
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10). When will China become a democracy? This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published. This question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents. The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level. Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the ...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6379/will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99%
Description: As of January 2021, the stock price of GameStop (GME) is seeing the sharpest rise in its history. The Reddit user [/u/deepfuckingvalue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) active on [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) seems to have predicted the rise of this stock as early as 2 years ago. Now r/wallstreetbets is very bullish on GME and they predict a [$420.69 price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l3mpmw/disgraceful_false_media_narrative_about_gme/) . r/wallstreetbets, and the GME rise in general, has gotten a lot of media attention. This atypical situation, in which r/wallstreetbets seems to play a sort of role (it's still unclear how influential they really are) has also happened recently with the relatively sudden rise of other stocks such as TSLA, PLTR, and NIO. Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021? The question will resolve positively if the GME stock price will reach $4...
# Forecasts: 530
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56.99999999999999%
Description: The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreemen...
# Forecasts: 46
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and...
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: [short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43%
Description: [Super Bowl LV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LV) is the 55th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2020 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 7 February 2021 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Metaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? The Buccaneers will be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium and their quarterback, Tom Brady, will play in a record 10th Super Bowl - the most for any quarterback. Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV? This question resolves positive if the Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV, per credible media reporting.
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded. As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations. Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were: ---2008: $312 ---2009: $138 ---2010: $284 ---2011: $336 ---2012: $375 ---2013: $434 ---2014 $544 ---2015 $512 ---2016 $610 ...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears...
# Forecasts: 27
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears...
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) . Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, fo...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) . Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, fo...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Anothe...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Anothe...
# Forecasts: 22
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) . Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Cons...
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) . Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Cons...
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) . When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. [Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufactur...
# Forecasts: 20
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) . When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. [Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufactur...
# Forecasts: 21
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta...
# Forecasts: 19
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context ======= [Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta...
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== Closing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. WeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standar...
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6413/roblox-rblx-first-trading-day-stock-price/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Background ========== Founded in 2004 by David Baszucki and Erik Cassel and released to the public in 2006, Roblox is expected to [enter the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)](https://marketrealist.com/p/roblox-direct-listing-date/) sometime this February 2021. Market Realist estimates that with private funding for a direct listing at $45 dollars a share, the company could reach a valuation of almost $30 billion dollars. [Roblox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roblox), an online gaming and game creation system platform, allows users to both develop and program their own games as well as play games created by other users. With a collected revenue of [$589 million in the first nine months of 2020](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/24/should-you-invest-in-the-roblox-ipo/#:~:text=The%20stock%20hit%20the%20market,shares%20of%20and%20recommends%20Netflix.) and a 68% increase in revenue over the same period from 2019, Roblox is experiencing massive growth. During this time, order bookings,...
# Forecasts: 42
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met: 1-- Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents fr...
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13%
Description: [Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and ["Frazzledrip"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864...
# Forecasts: 170
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 43%
Description: Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials) . Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.
# Forecasts: 26
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6422/substack-millionaire-before-2024/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 97%
Description: Substack is a new publishing company that has been growing rapidly and attracting high profile authors. One organization, The Dispatch, [has passed 1M in annual revenue](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/the-dispatch-substack-1-million-revenue) . However, The Dispatch has multiple authors. Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024 This resolves positively if credible reports say that an individual author is earning over $1M/year from Substack subscribers. They are allowed to have editors and still count as a solo author.
# Forecasts: 89
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13%
Description: The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as "an existential threat to our community".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/) [CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/) [Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron) [Ars Technica:...
# Forecasts: 247
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) ...
# Forecasts: 40
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box ...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 69%
Description: [Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government) ; its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: --- [The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held "within one year before the places are to b...
# Forecasts: 15
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html) ; the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html) . Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded))? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on March 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on March 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understo...
# Forecasts: 41
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6466/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-february/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 February 2021 there are 433,751 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on 2021-02-01 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 16,941. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/da...
# Forecasts: 11
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6468/new-us-covid-hospital-admissions-21-27-feb/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 2021-02-01 there are 93,536 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations. A plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://github.com/compu...
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6469/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-february/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-02-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 2021-02-01 was 119,747. A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/raw/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfN...
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Two COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine) and [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) — have been approved by the FDA and are currently being distributed in the U.S. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577) and the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389) . As of 2021-02-03, [27,154,956 people](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the [Pfizer](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccine-Distribution-Allocations-by-Juris/saz5-9hgg) and [Moderna](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccine-Dist...
# Forecasts: 17
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6473/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-1-march/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new) : B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited ...
# Forecasts: 12
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6474/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-7-march/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new) : B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited ...
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6477/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-29-march/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new) : B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited ...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/
Platform: Metaculus
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=2) . On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times...
# Forecasts: 23
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals,...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021. During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”). A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well p...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in P...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or oth...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51%
Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 27%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, ame...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 97%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s so...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at Predi...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 37%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at Predi...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s so...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and de...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 71%
Description: This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view a...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 91%
Description: This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below. Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "50 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "67 or more" shall resolve to Yes. This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 17%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shal...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 69%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and sh...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shal...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shal...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and sha...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22%
Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 13%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and s...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 16%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 82%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and d...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and s...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejec...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 31%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure th...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 23%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes. A vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee vi...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Brad Raffensperger testify publicly in Trump's Senate trial by Feb. 28?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7098/Will-Brad-Raffensperger-testify-publicly-in-Trump's-Senate-trial-by-Feb-28
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 18%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Brad Raffensperger testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Senate in any trial on any article of impeachment of former President Donald Trump. Live testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shown to the Senate shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Testimony before a Congressional committee or subcommittee shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Should Mr. Raffensperger appear at any such trial, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Raffensperger submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will the Senate vote on whether to convict Donald Trump?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7100/When-will-the-Senate-vote-on-whether-to-convict-Donald-Trump
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the date upon which the Senate votes on whether to convict former President Donald J. Trump in his Senate impeachment trial. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. Should no such vote commence before the End Date, whether because no such trial has begun, remains ongoing upon that date, or has been abandoned without a vote on conviction, the contract identifying the range "February 20 or later" shall resolve to Yes. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sol...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure th...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 56%
Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are repla...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule sh...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?
URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31
Platform: PredictIt
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.35%
Description: This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
# Forecasts: 1370
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12.05%
Description: This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.
# Forecasts: 155
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will...
# Forecasts: 833
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer" will resolve to “Yes". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more" will resolve to “Yes". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes". The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative. Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vo...
# Forecasts: 552
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 62.36%
Description: This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
# Forecasts: 1251
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99.54%
Description: This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to "No". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e...
# Forecasts: 202
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95.21%
Description: This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)
# Forecasts: 3626
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 42.10%
Description: This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
# Forecasts: 1629
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 53.74%
Description: This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases.
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 89.29%
Description: This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Inte...
# Forecasts: 514
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 32.77%
Description: This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa. The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
# Forecasts: 385
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68.00%
Description: This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a recall election is triggered and "No" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.
# Forecasts: 179
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.51%
Description: This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
# Forecasts: 1721
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to "less than 6.5 million". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the "reader" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integr...
# Forecasts: 3457
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 26.51%
Description: This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
# Forecasts: 215
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 60.49%
Description: This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match. Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to "Chiefs vs Team 2", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret. Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from "Yes | No" to "Chiefs | Bucs".
# Forecasts: 756
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 41.20%
Description: This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
# Forecasts: 222
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6.62%
Description: This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.
# Forecasts: 667
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12.88%
Description: This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of...
# Forecasts: 1292
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: undefined
URL: undefined
Platform: undefined
Binary question?: undefined
Percentage: undefined
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: undefined
Title: How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 10, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-10-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 10, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,453 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled "@MCuban" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be in...
# Forecasts: 428
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93.57%
Description: This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for thi...
# Forecasts: 551
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?
URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021
Platform: PolyMarket
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 24.18%
Description: This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
# Forecasts: 183
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in Februar...
# Forecasts: 10
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within...
# Forecasts: 8
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here.
# Forecasts: 33
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, ...
# Forecasts: 83
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan ...
# Forecasts: 77
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Thre...
# Forecasts: 85
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the ri...
# Forecasts: 28
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible...
# Forecasts: 71
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 48%
Description: Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, t...
# Forecasts: 76
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to mi...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, ...
# Forecasts: 51
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 64%
Description: Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad...
# Forecasts: 170
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain depen...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based...
# Forecasts: 156
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will...
# Forecasts: 66
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain...
# Forecasts: 72
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent o...
# Forecasts: 59
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually ...
# Forecasts: 157
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publicatio...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolve...
# Forecasts: 142
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph ...
# Forecasts: 216
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question wi...
# Forecasts: 91
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, p...
# Forecasts: 86
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
# Forecasts: 175
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." A grant is "surveillance related" if its abstract includes the term "surveillance," "facial recognition," or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments
# Forecasts: 89
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the questio...
# Forecasts: 90
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?
URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020
Platform: CSET-foretell
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data th...
# Forecasts: 120
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change](https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions](https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would n...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention](https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%](https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., "Big Tech" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Se...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a "public option" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a " [public](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) " for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate](https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A "public option" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a "public option" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a "public option" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as t...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 20 November 2020 Control of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf), in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ([TPP](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp)) [prior](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ([CPTPP](https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/tr...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 1 May 2020 Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) 's website (select "view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 bil...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) . Dozens of [companies](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut](https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total)...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK](https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government](https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 Jun...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . 04 January 2021 - Bin B ("Between 23% and 27%, inclusive") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, th...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020)) and [others](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment](https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data](https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count](https://www.fda.gov/n...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;?
URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
Platform: Good Judgment
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487), and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★★☆
Title: How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1924-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-28-february-2021-according-to-the-cdc
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)).
# Forecasts: 54
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1921-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
# Forecasts: 16
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1922-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
# Forecasts: 29
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1923-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
# Forecasts: 25
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95%
Description: After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611), [thelocal.it](https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means)). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.
# Forecasts: 115
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage:
Description: The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total',  [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
# Forecasts: 124
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
# Forecasts: 36
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
# Forecasts: 52
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 45%
Description: Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean) .
# Forecasts: 109
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 68%
Description: Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
# Forecasts: 94
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
# Forecasts: 138
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-r...
# Forecasts: 235
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname."
# Forecasts: 139
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
# Forecasts: 151
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
# Forecasts: 112
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
# Forecasts: 152
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 11%
Description: In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Inf...
# Forecasts: 61
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
# Forecasts: 91
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
# Forecasts: 53
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
# Forecasts: 97
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 54%
Description: While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
# Forecasts: 65
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL ([NFL](https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl)).
# Forecasts: 229
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77%
Description: North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
# Forecasts: 96
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
# Forecasts: 82
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 80%
Description: An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights),  [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
# Forecasts: 158
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
# Forecasts: 154
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3%
Description: President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en)  [in English]).
# Forecasts: 80
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
# Forecasts: 203
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
# Forecasts: 157
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
# Forecasts: 149
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o e...
# Forecasts: 96
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion)  [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-par...
# Forecasts: 45
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic ([eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cual será el precio de cierre de la acción de Mercado Libre el 15 de febrero de 2021?   Información adicional: La empresa de e-commerce latino-americana Mercado Libre ha visto un gran crecimiento durante la pandemia de COVID-19 ([eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020)). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado por el precio de cierre reportado por Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una ...
# Forecasts: 245
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
# Forecasts: 146
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
# Forecasts: 159
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis)  [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html)  [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes o...
# Forecasts: 30
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
# Forecasts: 360
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
# Forecasts: 279
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
# Forecasts: 240
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
# Forecasts: 124
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
# Forecasts: 134
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progres...
# Forecasts: 371
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval) . For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine app...
# Forecasts: 336
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 12%
Description: Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
# Forecasts: 235
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
# Forecasts: 293
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 22%
Description: Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness wou...
# Forecasts: 205
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 15%
Description: Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
# Forecasts: 278
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
# Forecasts: 235
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution.
# Forecasts: 191
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
# Forecasts: 187
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 51%
Description: The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
# Forecasts: 70
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250),  [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). 
# Forecasts: 287
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
# Forecasts: 91
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
# Forecasts: 57
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
# Forecasts: 148
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
# Forecasts: 92
Stars: ★★☆☆☆
Title: Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 90%
Description: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to ...
# Forecasts: 295
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
# Forecasts: 118
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50%
Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudg...
# Forecasts: 386
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader), [Vietnam Times](https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html)). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/)). NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021."
# Forecasts: 220
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
# Forecasts: 433
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
# Forecasts: 946
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
# Forecasts: 418
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 6%
Description: Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
# Forecasts: 267
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W)).
# Forecasts: 372
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021) .
# Forecasts: 405
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 70%
Description: The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
# Forecasts: 206
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95%
Description: A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
# Forecasts: 267
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85%
Description: On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice),  [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
# Forecasts: 245
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0%
Description: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp)). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets ([Oil Price](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html), [CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html)). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: [Bloomberg - WTI](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM), Brent: [Bloomberg - Brent](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM)).
# Forecasts: 268
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
# Forecasts: 234
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 3%
Description: In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers),  [National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/)). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info](https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea), [Inquirer.net](https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-l...
# Forecasts: 371
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736)). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559)).
# Forecasts: 469
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95%
Description: Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html)). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count. NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count.
# Forecasts: 392
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/europes-second-wave-anger-in-italy-as-covid-restrictions-bite-across-continent)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
# Forecasts: 381
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
# Forecasts: 141
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
# Forecasts: 176
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
# Forecasts: 263
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 95%
Description: Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
# Forecasts: 238
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
# Forecasts: 1055
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
# Forecasts: 244
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 4%
Description: Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
# Forecasts: 172
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simu...
# Forecasts: 133
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 98%
Description: Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
# Forecasts: 122
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
# Forecasts: 420
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
# Forecasts: 557
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
# Forecasts: 225
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
# Forecasts: 356
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
# Forecasts: 359
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0%
Description: A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them. NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be consider...
# Forecasts: 382
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage:
Description: In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
# Forecasts: 195
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
# Forecasts: 356
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
# Forecasts: 242
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
# Forecasts: 564
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8%
Description: Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom),  [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
# Forecasts: 958
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston ...
# Forecasts: 345
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0%
Description: Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Co...
# Forecasts: 292
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 25%
Description: CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
# Forecasts: 582
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
# Forecasts: 697
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 92%
Description: To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question...
# Forecasts: 188
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 0%
Description: After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular is...
# Forecasts: 305
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
# Forecasts: 514
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is f...
# Forecasts: 449
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amende...
# Forecasts: 196
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
# Forecasts: 321
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing ...
# Forecasts: 240
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53710555), [CatalanNews](https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/carles-puigdemont-elected-jxcat-president-with-99-3-of-votes), [AP](https://apnews.com/4f40dee005924aab99670da40122309e)).
# Forecasts: 250
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)) . Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html) . For the purposes of this question, "ma...
# Forecasts: 249
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
# Forecasts: 496
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our  [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cb...
# Forecasts: 262
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10%
Description: In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our  [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ee8d828f9c8788878d8f9a8781809dae8981818a849b8a89838b809ac08d8183d19d9b8c848b8d9ad3bf9b8b9d9a878180cbdcdead828f9c8788878d8f9a878180) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/) .
# Forecasts: 551
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/),  [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234),  [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html),  [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s) ...
# Forecasts: 215
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177),  [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/),  [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html),  [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html)  [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g.,  [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html),  [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/)  [in Chinese],  [Caam.org.cn](http://...
# Forecasts: 204
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. ...
# Forecasts: 197
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our  [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f89b94998a919e919b998c9197968bb89f97979c928d9c9f959d968cd69b9795c78b8d9a929d9b8cc5a98d9d8b8c919796ddcac8bb94998a919e919b998c919796) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here](https://goodjudgment.c...
# Forecasts: 977
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our  [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3b58575a49525d52585a4f525455487b5c54545f514e5f5c565e554f1558545604484e59515e584f066a4e5e484f5254551e090b78575a49525d52585a4f525455) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/) .
# Forecasts: 1195
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 77%
Description: Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation),  [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf),  [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388),  [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic),  [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, s...
# Forecasts: 224
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 5%
Description: Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our  [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#94f7f8f5e6fdf2fdf7f5e0fdfbfae7d4f3fbfbf0fee1f0f3f9f1fae0baf7fbf9abe7e1f6fef1f7e0a9c5e1f1e7e0fdfbfab1a6a4d7f8f5e6fdf2fdf7f5e0fdfbfa) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here](https://...
# Forecasts: 909
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
# Forecasts: 262
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the fil...
# Forecasts: 253
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our  [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617) . To...
# Forecasts: 366
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 2%
Description: Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen),  [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en),  [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see  [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
# Forecasts: 174
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/),  [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a  [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf) . The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wid...
# Forecasts: 238
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this quest...
# Forecasts: 358
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forec...
# Forecasts: 255
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?
URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets
Platform: Good Judgment Open
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 1%
Description: Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the sta...
# Forecasts: 288
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 98.8630%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.8673%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.1381%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 50.0000%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 85.1032%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 99.0000%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 40.0000%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?
URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632
Platform: Omen
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 10.9519%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
Title: In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 20.91%
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 73.00%
Description: This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 35.00%
Description: While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.77%
Description: The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Who will be elected president of France in 2022?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD".
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 7.92%
Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we ...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 9.00%
Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Te...
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 8.00%
Description: This question will be judged according to the number of "fatalities" published by ACLED ([http://www.acleddata.com](http://www.acleddata.com)) in the "Battle" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard](https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description:
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 39.62%
Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 78.00%
Description: This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 63.00%
Description: This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 93.00%
Description: On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?
URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: true
Percentage: 72.00%
Description: The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
Title: When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?
URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
Platform: Hypermind
Binary question?: false
Percentage: none
Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
# Forecasts: unknown
Stars: ★★★☆☆
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