metaforecast/data/ladbrokes-questions.json

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[
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Election Winner",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.098426094445168,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
"probability": 0.0405283918303633,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
"probability": 0.0405283918303633,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.13779653222323524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
"probability": 0.1531072580258169,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.03280869814838934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
"probability": 0.02026419591518165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Republican Nominee",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.028769063338197235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.186998911698282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
"probability": 0.03561884032348229,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.028769063338197235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.028769063338197235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
"probability": 0.028769063338197235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.03561884032348229,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
"probability": 0.04399974392900753,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.06799960425392074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Democratic Nominee",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
"probability": 0.02658891439825921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.3013410298469377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.04304871854956253,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.02658891439825921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.04304871854956253,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: Winning Party",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democrats",
"probability": 0.49722140976893836,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republicans",
"probability": 0.47484644632933615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Independent",
"probability": 0.027932143901725656,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: Republican Ticket (Nominee + VP)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Hawley + Haley",
"probability": 0.04277908454782048,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump + Pence",
"probability": 0.16859992145317484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump + Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.08513461380308829,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlson + Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.04277908454782048,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump + Hawley",
"probability": 0.16859992145317484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hawley + Donald Trump Jr",
"probability": 0.034257354558214805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr + Hawley",
"probability": 0.034257354558214805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump + Taylor Greene",
"probability": 0.04277908454782048,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump + DeSantis",
"probability": 0.2528998821797622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump + Noem",
"probability": 0.08513461380308829,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "DeSantis + Noem",
"probability": 0.04277908454782048,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next German Chancellor: To Replace Merkel As Chancellor",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
"probability": 0.452482924641184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
"probability": 0.04115439933641245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
"probability": 0.04115439933641245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
"probability": 0.04115439933641245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
"probability": 0.3646592346264394,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
"probability": 0.05083778741556832,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next French Presidential Election: To Win",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.03628080539252678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francois Baroin",
"probability": 0.03628080539252678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernard Cazeneuve",
"probability": 0.022408732742443014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolas Sarkozy",
"probability": 0.029303727432425482,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michel Barnier",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ségolène Royal",
"probability": 0.029303727432425482,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valerie Pecresse",
"probability": 0.022408732742443014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.4562256965527321,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.16931042516512498,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon",
"probability": 0.03628080539252678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.03628080539252678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurent Wauquiez",
"probability": 0.022408732742443014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"probability": 0.022408732742443014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2022 Texas Gubernatorial Election: To Win",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Beto O'Rourke",
"probability": 0.21794871794871795,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Abbott",
"probability": 0.6538461538461539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julian Castro",
"probability": 0.10897435897435898,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 German Federal Election: Most Seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "CDU + CSU",
"probability": 0.8750857927247769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.05353466026080989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SPD",
"probability": 0.05353466026080989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 NYC Mayoral Election: Election Winner - Void if no 2021 election",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.5017152370016653,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
"probability": 0.21699184000322022,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
"probability": 0.09644081777920897,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ray McGuire",
"probability": 0.05105690353016946,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
"probability": 0.07890612363753463,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Donovan",
"probability": 0.03338336000049542,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Labour Party Leader: To Succeed Keir Starmer",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Burnham",
"probability": 0.07353039962596515,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
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{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
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},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
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},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Miliband",
"probability": 0.023789246937812255,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anneliese Dodds",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rosena Allin-Khan",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Labour Party Leader: When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "2022",
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{
"name": "2023",
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{
"name": "2024 or later",
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}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next UK Prime Minister: Next PM (Acting PM or similar will not count)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.21196616150341224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
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},
{
"name": "Keir Starmer",
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{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
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{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
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{
"name": "Liz Truss",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
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},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Tracy Brabin (Lab)",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Robinson (Cons)",
"probability": 0.13207322872087493,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan (Lab)",
"probability": 0.877670711241192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey (Cons)",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose (Ind)",
"probability": 0.02684639822620117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 35%",
"probability": 0.04261025029797378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "35-40%",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40-45%",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Over 50%",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Winner without Sadiq Khan",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.04122517504215602,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sian Berry",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.025462608114272835,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Most votes match bet",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Max Fosh",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson Specials: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023 or later",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson Specials: Leader at Next General Election?",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "To be Tory leader at next general election",
"probability": 0.5263157894736842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "NOT to be Tory leader at next general election",
"probability": 0.47368421052631576,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Most Seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.08506316571711667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Majority Betting (over 30 Seats)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour Majority",
"probability": 0.2903930131004367,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "NO Labour Majority",
"probability": 0.7096069868995633,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish Independence Referendum: Year Of Next Official Referendum (Sanctioned by UK and Scottish Governments)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "2022",
"probability": 0.22419928825622776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
"probability": 0.09964412811387899,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 2025",
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},
{
"name": "2021",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Most Seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.5580386083220991,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.41418865595462456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Year of next election",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
"probability": 0.04429530201342282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
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},
{
"name": "2023",
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},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Overall Majority",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative Majoirity",
"probability": 0.31460674157303375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour Majority",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No Overall Majority",
"probability": 0.44943820224719105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish First Minister: Next Scottish First Minister",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Douglas Ross",
"probability": 0.04879191719970918,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anas Sarwar",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Derek Mackay",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Swinney",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keith Brown",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
"probability": 0.03190240739980985,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
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