![\"1525\"](\"https://goodjudgment.io/agp/1fe346/current.png\" "\\"1525\\"")
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "By less than $1 trillion, Between $1 trillion and $2 trillion, inclusive, By more than $2 trillion but less than $3 trillion, Between $3 trillion and $4 trillion, inclusive, By more than $4 trillion" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Suriname in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Suriname is Santokhi, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Suriname has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0069158", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9930842, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Suriname", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Santokhi", "month_risk": "0.0005399", "annual_risk": "0.0069158", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "30", "leader_years": "1.416667", "country_code": "SUR", "country_abb": "SUR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:43:16.347Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:51:01.700Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 151, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045-will-the-closing-price-of-brent-crude-oil-be-higher-than-70-00-per-barrel-on-30-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:07.704Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 563, "numforecasters": 123, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Micronesia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Micronesia is Panuelo, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Micronesia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0062901", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9937099, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Micronesia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Panuelo", "month_risk": "0.0003601", "annual_risk": "0.0062901", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "43", "leader_years": "2.583333", "country_code": "FSM", "country_abb": "FSM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:01.761Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 432, "numforecasters": 123, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" }, { "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:45:43.184Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7550/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Arizona. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Kari Lake", "probability": 0.6201550387596898, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kimberly Yee", "probability": 0.22480620155038752, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Gaynor", "probability": 0.07751937984496123, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Salmon", "probability": 0.05426356589147286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kirk Adams", "probability": 0.02325581395348837, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:30.559Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1708 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Kari Lake, Kimberly Yee, Steve Gaynor, Matt Salmon, Kirk Adams" }, { "title": "Will October 2021 average global temperature be the highest October temperature on record?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-october-2021-average-global-temperature-be-the-highest-october-temperature-on-record", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether the average global land and ocean surface temperature for October 2021 will be the highest October temperature since global records began in 1880. The resolution source for this market will be the Global Climate Report for October 2021, published by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2021). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for the month of October 2021 averaged as a whole, global land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, as measured by U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will be ranked the highest for October since global records began, and “No” otherwise. Note that if this October ties for highest, it will result in the market resolving to \"Yes.\" Past data for the month of October can be found here https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/1/10/1880-2021. This market will resolve when data first becomes available for the month of October 2021.\n\nNote: According to data at market's inception, the warmest October was in 2015, when the average global land and ocean temperature was 1.03°C (1.85°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). However, that data might be modified, thus the market resolves to \"Yes\" only if NOAA lists October 2021 as the hottest or tied for the hottest since the records began.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.07815173193365789112937492242998397", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.921848268066342108870625077570016", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "230", "liquidity": "2504.22", "tradevolume": "11729.83", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:20.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 673, "numforecasters": 160, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2095-when-will-a-sars-cov-2-variant-other-than-delta-next-represent-more-than-70-0-of-total-covid-19-cases-in-the-us", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow ([New Atlas](https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/what-comes-after-delta-variant-coronavirus-who-names/), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/2021/08/13/doomsday-covid-variant-worse-delta-lambda-may-coming-scientists-say-1615874.html)). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 12 March 2022", "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:56.722Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 341, "numforecasters": 117, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier, A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021, A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022, A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022, Not before 12 March 2022" }, { "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:18:01.797Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 743, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-1-october-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation), [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230)). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/10/algorithms-shouldnt-be-protected-by-section-230-facebook-whistleblower-tells-senate/), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/legislative-efforts-and-policy-frameworks-within-the-section-230-debate/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:35.545Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 49, "numforecasters": 32, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Joe Biden", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1822", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "Much higher than conventional wisdom", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:32:49.597Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 278, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8456/household-mixing-ban-in-england-on-x-mas/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In England there is [growing concern](https://unherd.com/2021/10/how-we-can-escape-a-lockdown-christmas/), given [waning vaccine-induced immunity](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583v1), steadily rising COVID [cases](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases)/[hospitalizations](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare), and [lack of \"Plan B\" implementation](https://www.ft.com/content/36b198e9-ce6a-4912-b34d-9507f8a275df), that restrictions on household mixing may be introduced later this winter and may be in effect during Christmas.\nWill restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?\nThis resolves positively if, according to the UK Government or credible media reporting, there are any government restrictions on household mixing in England that are in effect on 25 December 2021.\nSuch restrictions must applicable to all people in England, not just to certain groups — e.g., restrictions that apply to mixing with households that have members who are 65+ but not to mixing with households with no older people would not count toward positive resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:11:38.387Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-25T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Liberia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Liberia is Weah, who has been in power for 3.9 years. Liberia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 16 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0193034", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9806966, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Liberia", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Weah", "month_risk": "0.0014143", "annual_risk": "0.0193034", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "16", "leader_years": "3.916667", "country_code": "LBR", "country_abb": "LBR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. [A previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/) of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%.\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 1000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:28:07.122Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 400, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T20:10:28.230000Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "BTC hits <=$10K by EOY", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A322", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-07T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:20:26.409Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in North Korea in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of North Korea is Kim Jong Un, who has been in power for 10.0 years. North Korea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 73 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.005169", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.994831, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "North Korea", "regime_type": "Party-Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Kim Jong Un", "month_risk": "0.0003803", "annual_risk": "0.005169", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "73", "leader_years": "10", "country_code": "PRK", "country_abb": "PRK" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.06999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:29:16.002Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Mike DeWine", "probability": 0.6422018348623852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", "probability": 0.2477064220183486, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Blystone", "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Yost", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Rodgers", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:07:51.931Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 59201 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike DeWine, Jim Renacci, Jim Jordan, Warren Davidson, Jon Husted, Joe Blystone, Mary Taylor, Dave Yost, Adam Rodgers" }, { "title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But the condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Two detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if there is the gap between them is 30 days or less.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nWill the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?\nThe question resolves positively if by 2100-01-01 that condition is met and at least 3 credible sources state or estimate that more than 100 million fatalities were caused by the nuclear conflict within 1 month of the final detonation that is part of that conflict. If a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 100 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:19:34.949Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Argentina in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Argentina is Fernandez, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Argentina has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 38 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.004238", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.995762, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Argentina", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Fernandez", "month_risk": "0.0003577", "annual_risk": "0.004238", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "38", "leader_years": "2", "country_code": "ARG", "country_abb": "ARG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be Senate majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7544/Who-will-be-Senate-majority-leader-on-Feb-1,-2023", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Senate majority leader at the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/01/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Mitch McConnell", "probability": 0.5471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chuck Schumer", "probability": 0.3490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Thune", "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dick Durbin", "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Cornyn", "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patty Murray", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barrasso", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joni Ernst", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:09.907Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 7723 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, John Thune, Dick Durbin, John Cornyn, Patty Murray, John Barrasso, Joni Ernst" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Hungary in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Hungary is Orban, who has been in power for 11.6 years. Hungary has a party regime type which has lasted for 2 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0030037", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9969963, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Hungary", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Orban", "month_risk": "0.0002413", "annual_risk": "0.0030037", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "2", "leader_years": "11.58333", "country_code": "HUN", "country_abb": "HUN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Zimbabwe in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Zimbabwe is Mnangagwa, who has been in power for 4.1 years. Zimbabwe has a party regime type which has lasted for 42 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0229224", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9770776, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.754Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Zimbabwe", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Mnangagwa", "month_risk": "0.0007159", "annual_risk": "0.0229224", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "42", "leader_years": "4.083333", "country_code": "ZWE", "country_abb": "ZIM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Haiti in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Haiti is Ariel Henry, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Haiti has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.013882", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.986118, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Haiti", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ariel Henry", "month_risk": "0.000663", "annual_risk": "0.013882", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "5", "leader_years": "0.4166667", "country_code": "HTI", "country_abb": "HAI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2128-what-percentage-of-us-retail-sales-will-be-made-online-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question ([Digital Commerce 360](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/coronavirus-impact-online-retail/), [Supermarket News](https://www.supermarketnews.com/online-retail/survey-convenience-drives-online-grocery-shopping-more-covid)). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce\" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html), see \"Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report\"). For the fourth quarter of 2020, the Bureau reported E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 13.6% ([Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table](https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/21q2table1.xls), xls file download).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 12.5%", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 15.5%", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:56.675Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "numforecasters": 50, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive, More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%, Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive, More than 15.5%" }, { "title": "Which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7519/Which-of-these-10-Asia-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, located upon launch of this market at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold the position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy of such person from, or appointment of another person to, that position. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. For purposes of this market, the family names of President Moon Jae-in, President Joko Widodo, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Moon,\" \"Widodo,\" and \"Kishida,\" respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Moon Jae-in", "probability": 0.5982142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", "probability": 0.17857142857142858, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", "probability": 0.07142857142857142, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Naftali Bennett", "probability": 0.0625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rodrigo Duterte", "probability": 0.02678571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", "probability": 0.017857142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Imran Khan", "probability": 0.017857142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kishida Fumio", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ebrahim Raisi", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:24.862Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 28858 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Moon Jae-in, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Scott Morrison, Naftali Bennett, Rodrigo Duterte, Narendra Modi, Imran Khan, Kishida Fumio, Ebrahim Raisi, Joko Widodo" }, { "title": "How many Yea votes in the House by Nov. 19 to pass reconciliation?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7538/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-by-Nov-19-to-pass-reconciliation", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/03/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on October 15, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of a bill that is passed through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"212 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"221 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or purely procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 11/19/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/03/2021 8:15 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules refer to votes in favor of passage of a bill that is passed through the House’s reconciliation process. For purposes of resolving this market, it is not necessary for that same bill to be passed by the Senate through reconciliation.\n", "options": [ { "name": "212 or fewer", "probability": 0.1607142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "213", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "214", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "215", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "216", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "217", "probability": 0.03571428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "218", "probability": 0.26785714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "219", "probability": 0.23214285714285712, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "220", "probability": 0.15178571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "221 or more", "probability": 0.11607142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:05.973Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 234299 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "212 or fewer, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221 or more" }, { "title": "Will US income inequality increase by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:49:01.910Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 246, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\na drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_%28meal_replacement%29) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\nWill Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n1-- \nIssuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n2-- \nBanning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n---Soylent Powder/Drink \n---Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink \n---Queal Steady \n---Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink \n---ManaPowder/ManaDrink \n---Saturo Powder/Drink \nIf additional products are listed by [blendrunner.com](http://blendrunner.com) in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:57.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 81, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:58:47.781Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 170, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Malta in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Malta is Abela, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Malta has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 60 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0028133", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9971867, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Malta", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Abela", "month_risk": "0.000233", "annual_risk": "0.0028133", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "60", "leader_years": "1.916667", "country_code": "MLT", "country_abb": "MLT" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be the 2022 Colorado Republican Senate nominee?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7549/Who-will-be-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-Senate-nominee", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for United States Senator from Colorado.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Eli Bremer", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cory Gardner", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron Hanks", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Cooke", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Darryl Glenn", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patrick Neville", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:27.082Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 130 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Eli Bremer, Cory Gardner, Ron Hanks, John Cooke, Darryl Glenn, Patrick Neville" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Bosnia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Bosnia is Dodik, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Bosnia has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 26 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0034701", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9965299, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Bosnia", "regime_type": "Foreign", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Dodik", "month_risk": "0.0002896", "annual_risk": "0.0034701", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "26", "leader_years": "1.083333", "country_code": "BIH", "country_abb": "BOS" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7548/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Colorado", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Colorado U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:22.402Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 9064 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Guatemala in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Guatemala is Giammattei, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Guatemala has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 26 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0058023", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9941977, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Guatemala", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Giammattei", "month_risk": "0.0005182", "annual_risk": "0.0058023", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "26", "leader_years": "1.916667", "country_code": "GTM", "country_abb": "GUA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:00:10.749Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:09:14.703Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8370/us-reaction-on-natos-offensive-detonation/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nSee also\n---[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) \nIf a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:06:17.148Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2024 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\nFor reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:38:45.947Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:59:03.567Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 162, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.8235294117647058, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.1764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:02:45.041Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 206299 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:12:58.356Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 215, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Burundi in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Burundi is Ndayishimiye, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Burundi has a personal regime type which has lasted for 6 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0163891", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9836109, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Burundi", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ndayishimiye", "month_risk": "0.0009504", "annual_risk": "0.0163891", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "6", "leader_years": "1.5", "country_code": "BDI", "country_abb": "BUI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Panama in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Panama is Laurentino Cortizo, who has been in power for 2.4 years. Panama has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.004619", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.995381, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Panama", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Laurentino Cortizo", "month_risk": "0.0003735", "annual_risk": "0.004619", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "32", "leader_years": "2.416667", "country_code": "PAN", "country_abb": "PAN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2053-will-the-us-truck-tonnage-index-reach-or-exceed-120-0-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/truck-tonnage-index.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics ([BTS](https://data.bts.gov/Research-and-Statistics/Truck-Tonnage-Seasonally-Adjusted-Index-/6hvx-3geb)). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 September 2021: The BTS link has been updated.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:56.977Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "numforecasters": 68, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:07:52.029Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.8316831683168316, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.16831683168316833, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:03:16.791Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 79836 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:29:52.579Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 176, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zł464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zł462.00 four months earlier.\n[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf), contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zł238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack).\nWill CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zł462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/GPW-CDR/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:47:43.634Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:50:46.218Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8571428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:23:18.942Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 143, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:41:34.390Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1139, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2790/self-driving-car-to-beat-a-self-driving-truck-in-making-the-first-cross-usa-trip/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "While self-driving cars could put hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers out of a job, self-driving trucks could leave millions of truck drivers without work. In his book, The War on Normal People, Andrew Yang cites the argument for self-driving trucks to come first:\nJim Scheinman, a venture capitalist at Maven Ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars, says that self-driving trucks will arrive significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier. Highways, the domain of semi trucks, are much less complex than urban areas, with fewer intersections and clearer road markings. And the economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars.\nMorgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering $168 billion per year in saved fuel ($35 billion), reduced labor costs ($70 billion), fewer accidents ($36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization ($27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their $40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year. \nOn the other hand, Elon Musk has suggested that Autopilot will become robust enough to do an [autonomous cross-country roadtrip](https://electrek.co/2019/05/09/self-driving-cross-country-trip-everyone-tesla-this-year-musk/) by the end of the year, although he had made similar promises in [2017 and 2018](https://www.autopilotreview.com/tesla-cross-country-autopilot-2018/):\nWe could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too\n— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) [May 9, 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)\nWill a self-driving car make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?\nThis question will have the same resolution condition as a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/) about self-driving trucks. For resolution, the car or truck must have no safety driver, but need not be commercially available. \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:01:59.848Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:02:30.583Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 87228 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Harris is 2024 DNOM", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2502", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:48:15.506Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 476, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the margin in the Buffalo mayoral election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7560/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Buffalo-mayoral-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for Byron Brown and the percentage of votes for India Walton, based on all votes officially reported, in the 2021 general election for Mayor of Buffalo, New York.\nPercentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. Should the two candidates receive the same number of votes, this market will resolve to the contract titled \"Brown under 2%.\" \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Brown, ≥ 8%", "probability": 0.9166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brown, 6% - 8%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brown, 4% - 6%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brown, 2% - 4%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brown, under 2%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Walton, under 2%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Walton, 2% - 4%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Walton, 4% - 6%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Walton, 6% - 8%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Walton, ≥ 8%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:56.608Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 125392 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brown, ≥ 8%, Brown, 6% - 8%, Brown, 4% - 6%, Brown, 2% - 4%, Brown, under 2%, Walton, under 2%, Walton, 2% - 4%, Walton, 4% - 6%, Walton, 6% - 8%, Walton, ≥ 8%" }, { "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_%28United_States_law%29#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:16:15.820Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 615, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/410-how-politically-polarized-will-u-s-citizens-be-in-2024", "platform": "CSET-foretell", "description": "This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey. Affective political polarization is the difference between how Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. feel about their own party and the other party. Survey recipients are asked how they feel about their own political party on a 0-100 scale, and how they feel about the other political party on a 0-100 scale. The difference between how they feel about their own political party and how they feel about the other political party is their affective political polarization.The survey instructions are: \"I’ll read the name of a person [or party] and I’d like you to rate that person [or party] using something we call the feeling thermometer. Ratings between 50 degrees and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person [or party]. Ratings between 0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you don’t feel favorable toward the person [or party] and that you don’t care too much for that person [or party]. You would rate the person [or party] at the 50 degree mark if you don’t feel particularly warm or cold toward the person [or party].\" You can read the survey text here (release variables V201156 and V201157).***The historical data underlying the graph is here.* * *What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.*** \n", "options": [ { "name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T13:44:38.984Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 335, "numforecasters": 192, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Cape Verde in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Cape Verde is Correia e Silva, who has been in power for 5.7 years. Cape Verde has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0093951", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9906049, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Cape Verde", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Correia e Silva", "month_risk": "0.0004611", "annual_risk": "0.0093951", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "31", "leader_years": "5.666667", "country_code": "CPV", "country_abb": "CAP" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:44:37.283Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 266, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Montenegro in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Montenegro is Zdravko Krivokapic, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Montenegro has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 16 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0032663", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9967337, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Montenegro", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Zdravko Krivokapic", "month_risk": "0.0002871", "annual_risk": "0.0032663", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "16", "leader_years": "1", "country_code": "MNE", "country_abb": "MNG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:55:17.242Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Yes, an announced release date of what would be the sixth book in the series would count even if the title is changed from \"The Winds of Winter.\"\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:15.761Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 216, "numforecasters": 54, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Libya in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Libya is Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Libya has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 1 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0216252", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9783748, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Libya", "regime_type": "Civilian Provisional", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh", "month_risk": "0.0010553", "annual_risk": "0.0216252", "risk_change_percent": "0.01", "regime_years": "1", "leader_years": "0.75", "country_code": "LBY", "country_abb": "LIB" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Malawi in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Malawi is Chakewera, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Malawi has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0141187", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9858813, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Malawi", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Chakewera", "month_risk": "0.0008965", "annual_risk": "0.0141187", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "28", "leader_years": "1.5", "country_code": "MWI", "country_abb": "MAW" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:41:05.504Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 917, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.16000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:47:17.294Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 242, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:50:14.990Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://%28https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/%29) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:00:47.134Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Belgium in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Belgium is Alexander De Croo, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Belgium has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 101 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0012717", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9987283, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Belgium", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Alexander De Croo", "month_risk": "0.0001079", "annual_risk": "0.0012717", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "101", "leader_years": "1.166667", "country_code": "BEL", "country_abb": "BEL" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:24:47.057Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 312, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1492", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-14T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.\nWill Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:56:28.508Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Kiribati in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Kiribati is Mamau, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Kiribati has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0047842", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9952158, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Kiribati", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Mamau", "month_risk": "0.000399", "annual_risk": "0.0047842", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "42", "leader_years": "5.75", "country_code": "KIR", "country_abb": "KIR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Someone else is 2024 POTUS", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2392", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-16T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.\nWill there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs between the time this question is posted and December 31, 2023:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:12:37.807Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-02-04T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Rs win GA 2022 Senate", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1582", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Costa Rica in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Costa Rica is Carlos Alvarado Quesada, who has been in power for 3.6 years. Costa Rica has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 72 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0045382", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9954618, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Costa Rica", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Carlos Alvarado Quesada", "month_risk": "0.0003733", "annual_risk": "0.0045382", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "72", "leader_years": "3.583333", "country_code": "CRI", "country_abb": "COS" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.41000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:03:36.500Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 309, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Guyana in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Guyana is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Guyana has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0066572", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9933428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Guyana", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Mohamed Irfaan Ali", "month_risk": "0.0005254", "annual_risk": "0.0066572", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "29", "leader_years": "1.333333", "country_code": "GUY", "country_abb": "GUY" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:16:47.409Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a bill imposing a tax on wealth or unrealized capital gains become law before December 20, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/WTAX-001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If a bill becomes law after Issuance and before December 20, 2021 that imposes a new tax on wealth or unrealized capital gains, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see WTAX in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including definitions and examples of eligible taxes.. The resolution source is: The text of bills that have become law after Issuance and before December 20, 2021 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 11, "yes_ask": 14, "spread": 3, "shares_volume": 9132 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? ", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, [a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37430824) as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.\nFollowing the attack, [Russia ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN11R238?il=0)and the [United States](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/syria-ceasefire-is-over-says-countrys-military) blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The [UN](http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/syria-unsarc-convoy-hit-urum-al-kubra-northwest-aleppo-city) and [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/20/syria-investigate-attack-un-aid-convoy) both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the [collapse](http://time.com/4500719/syria-ceasefire-aid-convoy-aleppo/) of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.\n", "options": [ { "name": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.", "probability": 0.416998344156324, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.", "probability": 0.3996231698874853, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.", "probability": 0.12766875086273002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.", "probability": 0.051659883539936315, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The US Air Force carried out the attack.", "probability": 0.0040498515535244296, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.729Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack., The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly., The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack., Opposition ground forces carried out the attack., The US Air Force carried out the attack." }, { "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.31000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:42:19.571Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).\nWill marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?\nIf recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (excluding anomalies that last for less than 6 months) prior to the final day of 2040, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\nIf the surface of the Earth changes sufficiently drastically to make the described land area ill-defined, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:06:54.812Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-12-31T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that the [rockets carried sarin](http://info.publicintelligence.net/UN-SyriaChemicalAttack.pdf), a deadly nerve agent used as a chemical weapon.\nThere was initial skepticism that the Syrian government would have ordered such an attack, risking retaliation by the US. But information published by the US, UN, and Human Rights Watch during the following weeks convinced Western public opinion that the Syrian government was indeed responsible. This information included:\n1--Proof that the [volcano rockets found in Zamalka were locally manufactured by the government](https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack). \n2--[Rocket trajectories reported by the UN that were shown to intersect at a Syrian army base](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/world/middleeast/un-data-on-gas-attack-points-to-assads-top-forces.html). \n3--Detection of sarin, which was known to be held by the Syrian government. \n4--[Reports by the US government that the rockets had been launched from government territory](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21). \n5--Finally, [Syria’s agreement to dismantle their chemical weapons program](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Destruction_of_Syria%27s_chemical_weapons) was further seen as an admission of guilt. At that point the issue mostly disappeared from public discourse. \nHowever, over time, some of this evidence has been found to be unreliable, while new evidence has surfaced that seems to better support the hypothesis that opposition forces were behind the attack. These include:\n1--Analysis of the rocket’s range showing that it could not have been launched from the army base initially suspected as the origin. \n2--[Errors in the UN trajectory calculations](http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/) that, together with the new rocket range calculation, point to a launch from opposition territory. \n3--Evidence of multiple instances in which the opposition used sarin or [tried to acquire it](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/turkish-syrian-jihadis-chemical-court.html). \n4--[Videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcbBTjh2EU) apparently showing an opposition group (Liwa al-Islam) launching chemical rockets, which match the time and location of the attack on Ghouta. \nThis attack, and others that followed, are the subject of heated international debate, which significantly increased the risk of a US-Russian military conflict on at least three occasions. The world clearly needs an unbiased analysis of this case using advanced inference tools.\n\nUpdate: In June 2021, the videos of the event were corroborated as authentic. They were matched to a field within opposition controlled territory, and that field has been shown to be in the intersection of seven trajectories calculated from images of the impact sites. [See additional evidence](https://blog.rootclaim.com/new-evidence-2013-sarin-attack-in-ghouta-syria).\n\nWe now consider this issue closed, and no longer see a need for a probabilistic analysis, as the new discoveries are clear enough to understand using standard human reasoning. We're leaving the analysis here for reference, and recording our original estimate: 87% Opposition, 13% Syrian army.\n\nNote: While we don’t expect anyone to apply at this point, the Rootclaim $100,000 debate challenge is still available for this issue. [Read more here](http://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge). \n", "options": [ { "name": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.", "probability": 0.036109738906225514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.", "probability": 0.9638902610937745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack., Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack." }, { "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:09:13.420Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 882, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:46:30.462Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 472, "numforecasters": 216, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:13:24.165Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 340, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:20:47.512Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 230, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Peru in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Peru is Castillo, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Peru has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 20 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0059416", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9940584, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Peru", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Castillo", "month_risk": "0.0004866", "annual_risk": "0.0059416", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "20", "leader_years": "0.4166667", "country_code": "PER", "country_abb": "PER" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which EU country will be the next to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, not including the UK?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130946043", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "If no country (apart from the UK) invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before 2023 the selection 'No Country Before 2023' will be settled as the winner. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", "options": [ { "name": "No Country Before 2023", "probability": 0.8477713369406104, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hungary", "probability": 0.030731710964097124, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Poland", "probability": 0.05619512862006331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Italy", "probability": 0.0026578777050029947, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Netherlands", "probability": 0.002006968879287976, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sweden", "probability": 0.0011435055242454745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Denmark", "probability": 0.0010351734219485346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ireland", "probability": 0.0012448287985457065, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greece", "probability": 0.0009933482331829374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", "probability": 0.001855499529907751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Austria", "probability": 0.001003484439643988, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Czech Republic", "probability": 0.001821138427502052, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", "probability": 0.0010351734219485346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Finland", "probability": 0.0009933482331829374, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Spain", "probability": 0.00491707375425554, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belgium", "probability": 0.0037823644263504158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bulgaria", "probability": 0.0037823644263504158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Croatia", "probability": 0.003642276855004104, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyprus", "probability": 0.0037823644263504158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Estonia", "probability": 0.0010351734219485346, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Latvia", "probability": 0.0037823644263504158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lithuania", "probability": 0.0037823644263504158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luxembourg", "probability": 0.003642276855004104, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malta", "probability": 0.003512195538753957, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Portugal", "probability": 0.0032780491695036935, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Romania", "probability": 0.0032780491695036935, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Slovakia", "probability": 0.0037823644263504158, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Slovenia", "probability": 0.003512195538753957, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 10580.23 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "No Country Before 2023, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Greece, France, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Finland, Spain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia" }, { "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:04:02.403Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 324, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:49:28.378Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2132-will-emirates-airline-revenues-for-fy-2021-22-reach-at-least-75-of-fy-2019-20-revenues-or-aed-68-979-million", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion ([Emirates](https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results/), [Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf)). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 ([Emirates Group](https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/)). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million ([Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf), see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:47.106Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "numforecasters": 34, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:26.207Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 42432 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Belize in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Belize is Juan Antonio Briceno, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Belize has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0049494", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9950506, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Belize", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Juan Antonio Briceno", "month_risk": "0.0003801", "annual_risk": "0.0049494", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "40", "leader_years": "1.083333", "country_code": "BLZ", "country_abb": "BLZ" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:54:20.983Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 224, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:24:29.939Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 217, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:30:54.704Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 327, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:07:41.246Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Solomon Islands in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Solomon Islands is Sogavare, who has been in power for 2.7 years. Solomon Islands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0056878", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9943122, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Solomon Islands", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Sogavare", "month_risk": "0.000466", "annual_risk": "0.0056878", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "43", "leader_years": "2.666667", "country_code": "SLB", "country_abb": "SOL" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:29:21.241Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 261, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will $MATIC (Polygon) be above $2 on November 6?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matic-polygon-be-above-2-on-november-6", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether the candlestick close price of Polygon $MATIC will be above $2.00 for the date and time of November 6, 2021, at 11:30 AM ET. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be prices listed on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the resolution source, $MATIC has a candlestick closing price of greater than $2.00 for the resolution date, November 6, 2021, 11:30 AM ET after 11:30 AM ET has passed. \nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\n(To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.)\n\nThis market will resolve on the “C” (i.e. closing price) listed for the candle titled “Sat 6 November 2021, 11:30:00” with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 11:30:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:00:00 AM ET and the closing price for 11:30:00 AM ET. \n\nTo allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 11:50:00 AM ET, on November 6, 2021. Note: If the candlestick closing price is exactly 2.00, the market will resolve \"No.\" If CoinGecko is unavailable at resolution time, another source will be used.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.2723282134022973574767767984908189", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.7276717865977026425232232015091811", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "563", "liquidity": "11895.24", "tradevolume": "48148.24", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Another question asks [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/) This question focuses on the possibility of a deadly clash by 2024 between Russia and at least one NATO country, without the US being involved.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russia forces and identifiable forces of any NATO country other than the US.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n--- \nThe question resolves negatively if the above criteria are not met for a clash between Russia and a NATO country other than the US or if the criteria are met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (even if, before or afterwards, the criteria are met for a conflict between Russia and a NATO country other than the US)\nSee also\n---[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:24:50.540Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.594059405940594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.4059405940594059, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:22.879Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 78532 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 ([BLS - PPI](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/archived-producer-price-index-detailed-report-information.htm)). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% ([BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-may-2021.pdf), see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%", "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5%", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:01.344Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "numforecasters": 39, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%" }, { "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\nWill USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.20999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:29:31.927Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Ukraine in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Ukraine is Zelensky, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Ukraine has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0146823", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9853177, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Ukraine", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Zelensky", "month_risk": "0.0005006", "annual_risk": "0.0146823", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "31", "leader_years": "2.583333", "country_code": "UKR", "country_abb": "UKR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. ", "options": [ { "name": "in Q1, 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q2, 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q3, 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in Q4, 2021", "probability": 0.41379310344827586, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Perhaps later", "probability": 0.5862068965517241, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "in Q1, 2021, in Q2, 2021, in Q3, 2021, in Q4, 2021, Perhaps later" }, { "title": "Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.\n", "options": [ { "name": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).", "probability": 0.9526172817647263, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).", "probability": 0.022161263441175128, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).", "probability": 0.020142059292511075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).", "probability": 0.005079395501587589, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR)." }, { "title": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2166-what-will-be-the-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-greater-toronto-area-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([RENX.ca](https://renx.ca/q4-2020-office-report-major-city-snapshots-colliers/), [Canadian Real Estate](https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/this-western-citys-office-vacancy-is-26-334413.aspx), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/office-vacancies-in-canada-reach-highest-level-since-1994), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/09/23/canadian-office-vacancy-rate-hits-highest-level-since-1994-in-third-quarter.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 ([Colliers Canada](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% ([Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/greater-toronto-area-office-market-report-q4-2019), [Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/toronto-office-market-report-2021-q3)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 5.0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%", "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 11.0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:21.273Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive, Higher than 11.0%" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Norway in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Norway is Solberg, who has been in power for 8.2 years. Norway has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 137 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0007499", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9992501, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Norway", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Solberg", "month_risk": "0.000058", "annual_risk": "0.0007499", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "137", "leader_years": "8.166667", "country_code": "NOR", "country_abb": "NOR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Maldives in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Maldives is Ibrahim Solih, who has been in power for 3.1 years. Maldives has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 13 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0070793", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9929207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Maldives", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ibrahim Solih", "month_risk": "0.0003372", "annual_risk": "0.0070793", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "13", "leader_years": "3.083333", "country_code": "MDV", "country_abb": "MAD" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "When a novel coronavirus was first identified in late 2019, the assumption was that, like most epidemics, it was of a zoonotic source. A few studies, including [one published in the prestigious Nature magazine](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#auth-1), concluded that the virus is not a laboratory construct.\nToday, claiming a non-zoonotic origin is widely [considered a conspiracy theory](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/09/conspiracies-covid-19-lab-false-pandemic), and indeed many such claims are easily refutable without requiring probabilistic inference.\nHowever, the possibility of a lab escape does require serious examination, especially when considering the proximity of the source to a major coronavirus lab and [several unusual findings in the genome of SARS-CoV-2](https://bit.ly/3d0yZId). Due to the complexities of weighing an unlikely lab origin against findings that are unlikely for a zoonotic source, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n\nThis analysis is part of the Rootclaim $100,000 challenge, open to anyone who disagrees with our calculated conclusion. [Read more](https://rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge).\n", "options": [ { "name": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.", "probability": 0.031240153462625254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.", "probability": 0.8269448252439308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.", "probability": 0.034711280233216756, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers.", "probability": 0.10710374106022696, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically., The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident., The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released., The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers." }, { "title": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:31:21.074Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 249, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:51:17.562Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win Gloucester County in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7522/Who-will-win-Gloucester-County-in-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the individual who wins the most votes from Gloucester County in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. \nCandidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Jack Ciattarelli", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Phil Murphy", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:34.601Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 68621 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Jack Ciattarelli, Phil Murphy" }, { "title": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7139/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\na private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\nScott [forecasted](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population >= 1,000 in 2021.\nWill Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?\nThis question resolves positive if the population (according to credible sources) of Próspera is >= 1000 at any point during 2021.\nIf no sources claim this, but Scott Alexander resolves his prediction positively, then this question resolves positive (at the admin's discretion, to avoid him personally gaming the system).\nIf not, it resolves negative.\nRelated questions \n[What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:20:41.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 182, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-20T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "legislation will be passed this year that makes the minimum wage by the end of 2024 to >$14", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1992", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-27T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).\nWill SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?\nIf Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers to its database at any point in 2023, this question will resolve positively.\nIf another organisation widely reported to have involvement from Alexandra Elbakyan providing a similar service (as judged by Metaculus mods) to Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers, this should still resolve positively. \nOtherwise it should resolve negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:28:55.296Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Someone other R is 2024 POTUS", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2442", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Nauru in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Nauru is Aingimea, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Nauru has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 54 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0072989", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9927011, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Nauru", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Aingimea", "month_risk": "0.000471", "annual_risk": "0.0072989", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "54", "leader_years": "2.333333", "country_code": "NRU", "country_abb": "NAU" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:48:51.773Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:10:42.711Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be indicted for a federal or state crime by November 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-federal-or-state-crime-by-november-15", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump will be indicted for a federal crime or state crime by November 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump is indicted for a federal or state crime, as confirmed by government sources (https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel; https://www.justice.gov/news; https://www.manhattanda.org/category/news/) or credible news reports of an indictment by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.006381217822463135462199539270452255", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9936187821775368645378004607295477", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "1307", "liquidity": "1688.58", "tradevolume": "39533.71", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "China and Japan were last at war during World War II.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Japanese and Chinese forces.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:58:06.676Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 22, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will 229 million Americans have received at least one dose of an approved Covid-19 vaccination by November 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-229-million-americans-have-received-at-least-one-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccination-by-november-15", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether 229 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, November 15, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 229 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose as having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 229 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, and will be checked at the resolution time/date. If the website is down, the most recently available data will be used to resolve the market. If the website is not down, this market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.2051124820081130879872904825216129", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.7948875179918869120127095174783871", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "629", "liquidity": "12301.24", "tradevolume": "80564.90", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in India from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:04:07.610Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:16:59.844Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 779, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:40:57.856Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:36:43.599Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 354, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Donald J Trump, Ron Desantis, or Mike Pence", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1812", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:32:01.009Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 321, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 08/03/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act. \nThe legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 08/03/2021 6:33 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: As used in the Rules, Class One means Schedule I.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:09:21.244Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 81171 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2125-before-1-september-2022-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/nile-dam-dispute-remains-stalled-egypt-sudan-run-out-options), [All Africa](https://allafrica.com/stories/202107210509.html)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-council-urges-egypt-ethiopia-sudan-restart-dam-talks-2021-09-15/), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14576.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:02.995Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "numforecasters": 33, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_%28rocket%29) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:04:14.951Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 190, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "BTC hits >=$100K by EOY 2024", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A282", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-07T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_%28decryption_program%29#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:22:09.464Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z", "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2141-before-1-january-2023-will-the-taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-officially-change-its-name-to-include-the-word-taiwan", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to \"Taiwan Representative Office\" ([Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States](https://www.roc-taiwan.org/us_en/index.html), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-13/China-opposes-U-S-pondering-of-Taiwan-office-name-change--13wwMHtiKXu/index.html), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-letting-taiwan-change-name-its-office-united-states-mistake)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:21.903Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "numforecasters": 25, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:11:29.686Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 193, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Nov. 10?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7579/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Nov-10", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for November 10 at the End Date listed below. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using \"All Polls\", as displayed on the graph for November 10 at the End Date listed below. \nAny number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than November 10 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 11/11/2021 10:00 AM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "41.7% or lower", "probability": 0.04424778761061947, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41.8% to 42.0%", "probability": 0.061946902654867256, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.1% to 42.3%", "probability": 0.08849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.4% to 42.6%", "probability": 0.1415929203539823, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.7% to 42.9%", "probability": 0.17699115044247787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.0% to 43.2%", "probability": 0.16814159292035397, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.3% to 43.5%", "probability": 0.1327433628318584, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.6% to 43.8%", "probability": 0.09734513274336282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.9% or higher", "probability": 0.08849557522123894, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:49.840Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 76154 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "41.7% or lower, 41.8% to 42.0%, 42.1% to 42.3%, 42.4% to 42.6%, 42.7% to 42.9%, 43.0% to 43.2%, 43.3% to 43.5%, 43.6% to 43.8%, 43.9% or higher" }, { "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:23:44.910Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Seychelles in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Seychelles is Wavel Ramkalawan, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Seychelles has a party regime type which has lasted for 28 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0190657", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9809343, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Seychelles", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Wavel Ramkalawan", "month_risk": "0.0022675", "annual_risk": "0.0190657", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "28", "leader_years": "1.166667", "country_code": "SYC", "country_abb": "SEY" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Kevin Paffrath be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kevin-paffrath-be-governor-of-california-on-december-31-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Kevin Paffrath will be the Governor of California on December 31, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Kevin Paffrath is the Governor of the state of California as substantiated by official government sources (e.g. https://www.gov.ca.gov/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.01173338748634774977939352521181646", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9882666125136522502206064747881835", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "306", "liquidity": "938.70", "tradevolume": "35720.21", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7947/scotus-rules-vaccine-mandate-unconstitutional/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "President Biden [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-announcement/) that the Department of Labor's Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is developing a rule which will require all employees of companies with at least 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly COVID testing. While the official rule has not yet been announced, there have been [promises to challenge the new mandate in court](https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-sue-white-house-vaccine-mandate-experts-say-will-fail-2021-9).\nWill the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the Department of Labor introduces a new rule that requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, and the Supreme Court of the United States strikes the new rule down as unconstitutional before the end of 2021.\nIf the Department of Labor does not introduce a new rule which requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf the Supreme Court of the United States strikes down either the vaccine requirement or the testing requirement but leaves the other in place, this resolves positively. If the Supreme Court strikes down part of the new rule but the remainder of the rule still requires employees of companies with over 100 employees to be either vaccinated or undergo weekly testing, this resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:45:25.362Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-10T14:22:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2. \nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\".\nWill the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 8,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nThis question resolves negative if less than 4,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nIf the area is between these amounts we will resolve ambiguous.\nIf the dispute is resolved before the ICJ decides, we will still resolve on the same area based system.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:56:54.267Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2134-what-will-be-the-average-temperature-at-dubai-international-airport-between-1-may-2022-and-30-september-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from Meteostat ([Meteostat](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194)). On the page, set the date range for \"2021-05-01 - 2021-09-30\" in the field above the \"Avg. Pressure\" field and click the \"Export\" button. The average of the daily averages (\"tavg\" in the file) will be used for resolution. Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, the average temperature was 35.48497 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2020](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2020-05-01/2020-09-30)). For the same period in 2019, the average temperature was and 35.63268 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2021](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2019-05-01/2019-09-30)). This question will be resolved with data available on 7 October 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius", "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 37.5 degrees Celsius", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:42.810Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "numforecasters": 49, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius, Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius, Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 37.5 degrees Celsius" }, { "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:37:14.478Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 197, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:44:51.011Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Philippines in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Philippines is Rodrigo Duterte, who has been in power for 5.5 years. Philippines has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 36 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0062266", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9937734, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Philippines", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Rodrigo Duterte", "month_risk": "0.0003186", "annual_risk": "0.0062266", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "36", "leader_years": "5.5", "country_code": "PHL", "country_abb": "PHI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the WV-02 House election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7578/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-WV-02-House-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 WV-02 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "David McKinley", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alex Mooney", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:46.423Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 95 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "David McKinley, Alex Mooney" }, { "title": "Will there be a day before December 1, 2021, where the seven day average of COVID-19 cases is less than 50,000? ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CASELOW-001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If there is a day between Issuance and December 01, 2021 whereupon the CDC reports the 7-day moving average for COVID-19 cases is below 50,000 as documented at the Expiration Time on the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. . The resolution source is: The reported seven-day moving averages as published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 26, "yes_ask": 28, "spread": 2, "shares_volume": 96876 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 [in 1914](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-stock-exchange-shut-down-1914-2014-7?r=US&IR=T).\nWill there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a period of at least 12 consecutive months before the end of 2120 during which there are no public US stock exchanges open for trading.\nWe'll use the definition of stock market/exchange on [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp) ([archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20210518172600/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp)):\nThe stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where regular activities of buying, selling, and issuance of shares of publicly-held companies take place.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:22:42.034Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8074/existence-of-macrofauna-on-an-icy-moon/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. It would be possible that such a mission could be equipped to not only detect microbial life but also any existing macrofauna.\nIf we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?\nThe question resolves positively if at least two national space agencies publicly state they believe the existence of macrofauna native to the ocean of an icy moon has been confirmed. Confirmed life may be currently alive, or dead (such that we find fossilized remains). Discoveries of life and macrofauna need not occur at the same time, nor in the same place.\nIf we do not discover any evidence of life on an icy moon by 2200, this question will resolve ambiguously. If we discover life on an icy moon but do not find macrofauna, this question resolves negative. If we discover life somewhere else (for example, on Mars) but find no life on an icy moon, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor the purpose of this question, \"macrofauna\" is defined as any multicellular organism larger than the approximate minimum resolution of the naked eye (0.1 mm). In other words, any multicellular organism that would be retained on a 0.1 mm mesh.\nAn \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:07:50.254Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T11:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:41:00.899Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 276, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Morocco in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Morocco is Muhammad VI, who has been in power for 22.4 years. Morocco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 66 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0046933", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9953067, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Morocco", "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Muhammad VI", "month_risk": "0.0003807", "annual_risk": "0.0046933", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "66", "leader_years": "22.41667", "country_code": "MAR", "country_abb": "MOR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Nicaragua in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Nicaragua is Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 14.9 years. Nicaragua has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 1 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.017831", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.982169, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Nicaragua", "regime_type": "Party-Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Daniel Ortega", "month_risk": "0.0048992", "annual_risk": "0.017831", "risk_change_percent": "0.38", "regime_years": "1", "leader_years": "14.91667", "country_code": "NIC", "country_abb": "NIC" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. On April 14, 2021, Coinbase went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:10:48.592Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Greg Abbott", "probability": 0.8165137614678899, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Allen West", "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Don Huffines", "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chad Prather", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew McConaughey", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Crenshaw", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Straus", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George P. Bush", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Patrick", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:07:20.390Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 550040 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Allen West, Don Huffines, Chad Prather, Matthew McConaughey, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick" }, { "title": "Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2022-which-major-cryptocurrency-will-perform-best-between-27-may-2021-and-29-november-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined by data from CoinDesk, using the \"1y\" chart, by dividing the price dated 29 November 2021 (PT) by the price dated 27 May 2021 (PT), which were:\n", "options": [ { "name": "Bitcoin", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cardano (Ada)", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Etherium", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "XRP (Ripple)", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:27.944Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 613, "numforecasters": 172, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin, Cardano (Ada), Etherium, XRP (Ripple)" }, { "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:20:57.826Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": " ", "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", "probability": 0.5779816513761468, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Zemmour", "probability": 0.29357798165137616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michel Barnier", "probability": 0.03669724770642202, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", "probability": 0.009174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Pierre de Villiers, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Piolle, Another woman, Another man, Eric Zemmour, Arnaud Montebourg, Michel Barnier, Another man" }, { "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one thousand offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 4 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 4 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:29:29.704Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_%281%29_%28%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh%29_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:31:14.166Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 168, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:42:08.807Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 109, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Denmark in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Denmark is Mette Frederiksen, who has been in power for 2.5 years. Denmark has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 121 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0009091", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9990909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Denmark", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Mette Frederiksen", "month_risk": "0.0000778", "annual_risk": "0.0009091", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "121", "leader_years": "2.5", "country_code": "DNK", "country_abb": "DEN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:20:04.577Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Debt ceiling crisis resolved via something else by EOY", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2332", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-07T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:50:25.571Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.5392156862745099, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.46078431372549017, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:02:22.746Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 97618 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.5445544554455446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.45544554455445546, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:03:48.421Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 87104 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will the winner of the 2021 FIDE Chess.com Grand Swiss Tournament represent the United States/Russia?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-winner-of-the-2021-fide-chesscom-grand-swiss-tournament-represent-the-united-states-or-russia", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This market shall resolve to \"Yes\" if the Winner of the 2021 FIDE Chess.com Grand Swiss Tournament that will take place in Raga, Latvia from October 25th 2021 to November 7th 2021 is registered with FIDE as being from the United States or Russia. If the winner is registered to any other country, this market will resolve \"No\". If the event is canceled, the market will resolve 50-50. Official complete player list with country designations can be found here: https://www.fide.com/docs/regulations/Grand%20Swiss%202021%20-%20List%20of%20players.pdf", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.1559230124956295468534156809301442", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.8440769875043704531465843190698558", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "101", "liquidity": "3595.97", "tradevolume": "9674.43", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Nan Whaley", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Cranley", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Pepper", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:07:55.200Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 10051 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Nan Whaley, John Cranley, Emilia Sykes, David Pepper" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Kyrgyzstan in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Kyrgyzstan is Sadyr Japarov, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Kyrgyzstan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0159567", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9840433, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Kyrgyzstan", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Sadyr Japarov", "month_risk": "0.0006386", "annual_risk": "0.0159567", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "1", "leader_years": "0.9166667", "country_code": "KGZ", "country_abb": "KYR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8356/safer-to-leak-10000-t-oil-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since 1988, the former supertanker Esso Japan has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel Safer. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Yemen's oil fields and trans-ship it for export. In this configuration it could store up to about 400,000 tonnes (3 MMbbl) of oil.\nIn 2015, the opposition Houthi movement captured Al Hudaydah and its port, and the Safer fell into disuse and disrepair. In subsequent years, international concern has gradually increased about the ship and its derelict cargo of nearly 150,000 tonnes (1.14 MMbbl). A major spill could close port access for badly needed humanitarian aid, wipe out the fishing industry of a country already experiencing widespread malnutrition, and potentially disrupt global shipping lanes through the confined approaches to the Suez Canal.\nSafely removing the oil from the Safer in its current condition ought to be simple mechanically. The problem is obtaining the necessary co-operation from the Houthis. Their troops garrison the vessel. There are fears of naval mines in the surrounding waters, and of booby-traps and scuttling charges aboard the Safer itself.\nThe Houthi leadership has linked the resolution of the Safer problem to broader diplomatic disputes. In 2020, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi mockingly tweeted, \"The life of the shrimps is more precious than the life of Yemeni citizens to the U.S. and its allies. ... Why is Safer more dangerous than the siege and the assault ... on the [Yemeni] people?\" In a later tweet, he added: \"If, God forbid, an environmental catastrophe occurred with the explosion of the Safer, the world will stop not for a week, as it did in Suez [during the Ever Given incident], but will stop for a long time.\" Some United Nations officials working on the problem are said to have privately concluded that the Houthis are playing chicken.\nAs Journalist Ed Caesar [has written](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/the-ship-that-became-a-bomb) in The New Yorker:\nThe Safer is not sinking. It is not on fire. It has not exploded. It is not leaking oil. Yet the crew of the ship, and every informed observer, expects disaster to occur soon. But how soon? A year? Six months? Two weeks? Tomorrow? In May [2021], Ahmed Kulaib, the former executive at [the Safer's operating company], told me that “it could be after five minutes.” Then five minutes passed, and then another... The crisis unfolds at the speed of rust.\nWill the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of credible media report that an oil spill associated with the FSO Safer has released at least 10,000 metric tonnes of oil. This question will resolve negatively if this has not occurred by 2025-01-01.\nIn the case that estimates of the size of the oil spill vary, such that ranges span above and below 10,000 tonnes, the question may resolve ambiguous if sufficient clarifying evidence is unavailable.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:17:56.536Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-07-16T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.\nIn 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:38:56.322Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.020000000000000018, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:03:44.488Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 131675 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/gc-to-be-caused-by-nanotech-if-it-occurs/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:43:00.933Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 166, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2101-06-01T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Lithuania in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Lithuania is Nauseda, who has been in power for 2.4 years. Lithuania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 32 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0028476", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9971524, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Lithuania", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Nauseda", "month_risk": "0.0002423", "annual_risk": "0.0028476", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "32", "leader_years": "2.416667", "country_code": "LTU", "country_abb": "LIT" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:19:34.819Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 403, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:42:00.141Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 162, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2158-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-france", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210713-france-to-hold-2022-presidential-election-rounds-on-april-10-and-24)). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-hits-the-campaign-trail/), [Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "National Rally (Rassemblement National)", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Republicans (Les Républicains)", "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "None of the above", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:39.893Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "numforecasters": 53, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "National Rally (Rassemblement National), The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!), The Republicans (Les Républicains), Unbowed France (La France Insoumise), None of the above" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Afghanistan in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Afghanistan is Ashraf Ghani, who has been in power for 7.3 years. Afghanistan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0145318", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9854682, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Afghanistan", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ashraf Ghani", "month_risk": "0.0019178", "annual_risk": "0.0145318", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "7", "leader_years": "7.25", "country_code": "AFG", "country_abb": "AFG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:09:15.307Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989-between-16-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-will-asml-obtain-an-export-license-from-the-netherlands-to-export-an-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-system-to-the-people-s-republic-of-china", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems ([ASML.com](https://www.asml.com/en)). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips ([Medium](https://medium.com/@ASMLcompany/a-backgrounder-on-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-a5fccb8e99f4), [ASML.com](https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems), [Laser Focus World](https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-does-the-laser-technology-in-euv-lithography-work)). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention ([Asia Times](https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/china-takes-first-baby-step-towards-chip-self-reliance/), [B1ts & Ch1ps](https://bits-chips.nl/artikel/us-report-recommends-sinking-more-asml-exports-to-china/)). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:52.582Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 201, "numforecasters": 89, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:39:36.541Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2107, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](http://%28https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/%29) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform. \nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:51:22.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:57:20.001Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 299, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or more", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:46:40.552Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 749, "numforecasters": 181, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, { "title": "In Germany, which political coalition will form the next government?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "CDU/CSU = right/center-right FDP = liberalism SPD = center-left Green = ecology Linke = extreme left ", "options": [ { "name": "CDU/CSU-Green-FDP", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "CDU/CSU-SPD-Green", "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SPD-FDP-Green", "probability": 0.9405940594059407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SPD-Linke-Green", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Other", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "CDU/CSU-Green-FDP, CDU/CSU-SPD-Green, CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP, SPD-FDP-Green, SPD-Linke-Green, Other" }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris cast 13 or more tie-breaking votes in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kamala-harris-cast-13-or-more-tie-votes-in-2021-1", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Kamala Harris will cast 13 or more tie-breaking votes in 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris casts 13 or more tie-breaking votes in 2021, and “No” otherwise. Tie-breaking votes will be considered if they are cast on or before 11:59 PM ET, December 31, 2021. The resolution source will be https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm. If the link changes or the becomes unavailable, another credible source will be chosen by the MIC to resolve this market. In the event of ambiguity, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nUpdate: \"Tie votes\" has been updated to \"Tie-breaking votes\" to reflect the resolution source. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.8395999723690787937508523050116459", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.1604000276309212062491476949883541", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "1192", "liquidity": "5264.82", "tradevolume": "139018.86", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Austria in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Austria is Kurz, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Austria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 66 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0012354", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9987646, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Austria", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Kurz", "month_risk": "0.0001088", "annual_risk": "0.0012354", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "66", "leader_years": "1.916667", "country_code": "AUT", "country_abb": "AUS" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Debt ceiling crisis resolved via ending fillibuster for debt ceiling by EOY", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2322", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-07T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which parties will be in the next German coalition?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7464/Which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-German-coalition", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 09/27/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that shall make up the first governing coalition of Germany subsequent to the next federal election. \nA party shall be considered to be part of a governing coalition if a majority of its representatives in the Bundestag cast a vote in favor of the election of the next Chancellor of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.\nFor purposes of this market, any contract that references the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shall also be considered to reference the Christian Social Union in Bavaria. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 09/27/2021 2:05 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: For purposes of resolving this market, a party that does not formally join a coalition agreement shall not be considered to participate in that coalition, regardless of the vote of a majority of its members in the Bundestag.\nCreated On: 09/23/2021 4:26 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In the event that PredictIt is not able to determine the composition of the party votes from voting records of the Bundestag, reliable news reports and/or public statements of the individual legislators, we will settle this market according to each party's public vote on the coalition agreement.\nCreated On: 09/02/2021 12:48 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The contract that resolves to Yes shall list all of the parties that make up the coalition, and only those parties. For example, if a contract lists only two parties and the coalition includes more than just those two, that contract will resolve as No. Potential coalitions may be added to this market as needed.\n", "options": [ { "name": "SPD + Greens + FDP", "probability": 0.9238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "CDU + SPD", "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "CDU + Greens", "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "CDU + Greens + FDP", "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SPD + Greens + Left ", "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SPD + CDU + FDP", "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "CDU + SPD + Greens", "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SPD + Greens", "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:11:00.308Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 205285 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "SPD + Greens + FDP, CDU + SPD, CDU + Greens, CDU + Greens + FDP, SPD + Greens + Left , SPD + CDU + FDP, CDU + SPD + Greens, SPD + Greens" }, { "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \nto\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\"\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:09:55.898Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 184, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Israel in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Israel is Bennet, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Israel has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 74 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0057808", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9942192, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Israel", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Bennet", "month_risk": "0.0001919", "annual_risk": "0.0057808", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "74", "leader_years": "0.5", "country_code": "ISR", "country_abb": "ISR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off [nearly 90%](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin) of the region's fresh water. Given the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) this situation seems intolarable for Russia. Recently [Russian troops amassed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778) near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a [credible](https://www.dw.com/en/us-asks-russia-to-explain-ukrainian-border-provocations/a-57105593) threat to the Ukrainian territory.\nWill Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any formal annexations on behalf of the Russian Federation are represented within their [official constitution](http://kremlin.ru/acts/constitution) ([English source](http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm)), specifically, under '[Chapter 3, Federated device](http://kremlin.ru/acts/constitution/item#chapter3)' by 12:00AM January 1, 2022 Moscow Standard Time (GMT+3).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:31:02.952Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 246, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-08T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n", "options": [ { "name": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.", "probability": 0.8474962690751916, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.", "probability": 0.07757191512692231, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.", "probability": 0.06511457976886398, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.", "probability": 0.009817236029022127, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome., The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people., The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment., The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based." }, { "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:06:24.090Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 185, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Shiba Inu ($SHIB) reach market cap of $50 billion at any point on or before November 15th?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-shiba-inu-shib-reach-market-cap-of-50-billion-by-november-15th", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "In Response to Trader Inquiry: Note that this market pertains to the timeframe between the date of market inception, October 28, 2021, and the resolution date, November 15, 2021. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the market cap of Shiba Inu (SHIB) reaches $50,000,000,000.00 as per CoinMarketCap (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/shiba-inu/) at any point on or before the resolution time, and “No” otherwise. Market cap data from the graph on CoinMarketCap will be used as well as data under \"SHIB Price Statistics.\"\n\nThe resolution time is November 15, 2021 at 11:59:59 PM ET.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.145190894799381274916308016357192", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.854809105200618725083691983642808", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "456", "liquidity": "8610.68", "tradevolume": "49040.47", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Togo in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Togo is Faure Gnassingbe, who has been in power for 16.6 years. Togo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 59 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.013193", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.986807, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Togo", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Faure Gnassingbe", "month_risk": "0.0006087", "annual_risk": "0.013193", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "59", "leader_years": "16.58333", "country_code": "TGO", "country_abb": "TOG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Mongolia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Mongolia is Khurelsukh, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Mongolia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0088387", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9911613, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Mongolia", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Khurelsukh", "month_risk": "0.0004445", "annual_risk": "0.0088387", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "28", "leader_years": "0.5", "country_code": "MNG", "country_abb": "MON" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_%28eurozone%29)\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.\nWill the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?\nResolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded. \nThe question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:22:00.741Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2105-will-legal-restrictions-on-the-number-of-people-who-can-meet-indoors-be-imposed-in-england-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as \"Freedom Day\" ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-what-are-the-remaining-rules-in-england-after-freedom-day-12359221), [Gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do)). However, seasonalities and the Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and others continue to raise concerns that another round of restrictions may come ([Bustle](https://www.bustle.com/wellness/will-there-be-a-winter-2021-lockdown-in-the-uk), [GoodtoKnow](https://www.goodto.com/family/family-news/will-we-go-back-into-lockdown-this-year-595165)). Restrictions indoors at home or in public places would not need to cover the whole of England to count, but restrictions specific to hospitals and medical care facilities would not count. The question would close upon restrictions taking effect.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 1 September 2021: For the purposes of this question, regulated care homes are considered medical care facilities ([NHS Data Model and Dictionary](https://datadictionary.nhs.uk/nhs_business_definitions/care_home.html)).\nNOTE 7 September 2021: \"Rule of Six\"-type restrictions and household limits would count ([inews.co.uk](https://inews.co.uk/news/rule-of-six-what-new-rules-meeting-people-outside-lockdown-roadmap-covid-restrictions-explained-882117)).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:37.058Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 342, "numforecasters": 161, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:18:52.030Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\nIn defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question resolves negatively if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to a resolution council or Metaculus admins.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:26:45.199Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:59:44.980Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1193, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2103-will-the-uk-or-eu-trigger-article-16-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol-before-1-february-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-what-is-the-northern-ireland-protocol-and-why-are-the-eu-and-uk-fighting-over-sausages-12327870), [UK in a Changing Europe](https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/article-16-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol/), [House of Commons Library](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/northern-ireland-protocol-article-16-and-eu-vaccine-export-controls/)). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol ([Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840230/Revised_Protocol_to_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf), see ANNEX 7).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:43.435Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 169, "numforecasters": 84, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Vietnam in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Vietnam is Phu Trong, who has been in power for 10.9 years. Vietnam has a party regime type which has lasted for 72 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0071124", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9928876, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.754Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Vietnam", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Phu Trong", "month_risk": "0.0001466", "annual_risk": "0.0071124", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "72", "leader_years": "10.91667", "country_code": "VNM", "country_abb": "DRV" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Bahrain in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Bahrain is Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah, who has been in power for 22.8 years. Bahrain has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0046588", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9953412, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Bahrain", "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah", "month_risk": "0.0003831", "annual_risk": "0.0046588", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "50", "leader_years": "22.75", "country_code": "BHR", "country_abb": "BAH" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Gavin Newsom be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-gavin-newsom-be-governor-of-california-on-december-31-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Gavin Newsom will be the Governor of California on December 31, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Gavin Newsom is the Governor of the state of California as substantiated by official government sources (e.g. https://www.gov.ca.gov/). If, for any reason, Gavin Newsom is not the sitting Governor of California on or before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.9777982789850741417207715184558853", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.02220172101492585827922848154411473", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "1517", "liquidity": "1851.92", "tradevolume": "97728.40", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8377/total-amount-of-nuclear-weapons-by-2029/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nWill countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all countries on 2029-12-31 is greater than 20,000, according to the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 2034-12-31. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It does not include weapons possessed by non-state actors.\nResolution criteria will come from [FAS](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:26:34.402Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:28:58.860Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 251, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8475/hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\nOK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\nI agree to this bet.\nWill Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:27:05.271Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Ethereum switch to Proof-of-Stake (EIP-3675) by February 22, 2022?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-switch-to-proof-of-stake-eip-3675-by-february-22-2022", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether EIP-3675 will be implemented on Ethereum prior to the resolution date, February 22, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the EIP-3675 is implemented prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. Being implemented on a testnet will not suffice for this market to resolve to \"Yes.\" EIP-3675 must be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet. Only EIP-3675 will be considered for this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.08699053319545164972644095562994457", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9130094668045483502735590443700554", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "600", "liquidity": "4210.90", "tradevolume": "44605.50", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Italy in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Italy is Draghi, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Italy has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 76 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0023566", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9976434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Italy", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Draghi", "month_risk": "0.000203", "annual_risk": "0.0023566", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "76", "leader_years": "0.8333333", "country_code": "ITA", "country_abb": "ITA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:00:21.276Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 586, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. \nQuestions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea. \nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:40:39.801Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 154, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:35:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:35:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.\nNOTE 5 May 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew and participating in scientific research would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a \"space tourist flight.\"\nNOTE 7 June 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a 'space tourist flight,' nor would particular training requirements for, or completion by, passengers and/or crew.\nNOTE 26 July 2021: Flights with members of the Virgin Galactic's Space Advisory Board, as Virgin personnel, would not count. Also, test flights would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only SpaceX", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:46:32.714Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 609, "numforecasters": 161, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" }, { "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:42:10.455Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 776, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Liechtenstein in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Liechtenstein is Hans-Adam II, who has been in power for 32.1 years. Liechtenstein has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 100 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0043437", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9956563, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Liechtenstein", "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Hans-Adam II", "month_risk": "0.0004051", "annual_risk": "0.0043437", "risk_change_percent": "0.01", "regime_years": "100", "leader_years": "32.08333", "country_code": "LIE", "country_abb": "LIE" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8334/us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis.\nWill spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion [according to the US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2021&categories=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=).\nThis question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:25:01.009Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-02-22T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win Chesterfield County in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7512/Who-will-win-Chesterfield-County-in-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the individual who wins the most votes from Chesterfield County in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. \nCandidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:09.296Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 113317 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Glenn Youngkin, Terry McAuliffe" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Spain in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Spain is Sanchez, who has been in power for 3.5 years. Spain has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 45 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0028549", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9971451, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Spain", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Sanchez", "month_risk": "0.0002475", "annual_risk": "0.0028549", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "45", "leader_years": "3.5", "country_code": "ESP", "country_abb": "SPN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:54:36.351Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8121/will-china-violate-taiwans-airspace/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Whenever Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without authorization from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, it creates international headlines and increases cross-straits tensions. As of the creation of this question, the latest example of such an incursion was when [Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on 3 October 2021](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/02/asia/china-warplanes-taiwan-air-defense-intl-hnk/index.html). Please see the map of their flight path through Taiwan's ADIZ [here](https://imgur.com/lML4CCn). \nFor purposes of this question, the borders of Taiwan's airspace is considered to be 12 nautical miles out from its coastline.\nBy 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?\nThis question resolves positively upon aircraft of the People's Liberation Army Air Force entering Taiwan's airspace without authorization. Otherwise it resolves negatively. Resolves per credible media reporting.\nEntering Taiwan's [ADIZ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) without also entering Taiwan's airspace does not resolve the question as yes. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:40:34.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 121, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-02T16:14:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T16:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).\nWill Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:35:35.918Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-01T20:28:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T19:28:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7549/resolving-the-sunflower-conjecture/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nWill the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal resolving the sunflower conjecture. If there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:24:40.228Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... ", "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", "probability": 0.6456692913385826, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", "probability": 0.007874015748031496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", "probability": 0.007874015748031496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", "probability": 0.031496062992125984, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", "probability": 0.30708661417322836, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abshir Aden Ferro, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Someone else, No election in 2021" }, { "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:20:05.712Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 183, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:08:43.942Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 382, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Republican other than Jordan, Mandel, and Renacci", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A842", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:31:28.805Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 141, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will the next UK General Election take place after the Election on the 12th December 2019?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249197", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or on Jan 1 2024. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", "options": [ { "name": "2021", "probability": 0.007775332702445465, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", "probability": 0.0697098794012352, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", "probability": 0.33140762338292146, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", "probability": 0.5911071645133978, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.461Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 40865.53 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later" }, { "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-in-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired in 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Clubhouse officially announces they’ve been acquired before January 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, and “No” otherwise. The phrase “announce they’ve been acquired” means the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note that this market pertains to the announcement—if Clubhouse announces they’ve been acquired in 2021, but the acquisition is finalized in 2022, the market will still resolve to “Yes.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.1241503734299004121685746350576121", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.8758496265700995878314253649423879", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "232", "liquidity": "1664.61", "tradevolume": "17437.50", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 100. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:28:22.594Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on January 1, 2022?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-cuomo-be-governor-of-new-york-on-january-1-2022", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Andrew Cuomo will be governor of New York on January 1, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Andrew Cuomo is the Governor of New York, as substantiated by official government sources like https://www.governor.ny.gov/. If, for any reason, Andrew Cuomo is not the sitting Governor of New York on that date, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.008526987829983408231221385015284124", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9914730121700165917687786149847159", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "713", "liquidity": "63.62", "tradevolume": "47376.82", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:34:16.783Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 229, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the first-elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.\nAn individual elected, appointed, acting as, and/or sworn in as Speaker Pro Tempore will be insufficient to cause the question listing that individual to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Kevin McCarthy", "probability": 0.7289719626168223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hakeem Jeffries", "probability": 0.06542056074766354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Scalise", "probability": 0.03738317757009345, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nancy Pelosi", "probability": 0.03738317757009345, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", "probability": 0.028037383177570086, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Elise Stefanik", "probability": 0.018691588785046724, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steny Hoyer", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "James Clyburn", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cathy McM. Rodgers", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Bass", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Schiff", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cheri Bustos", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katherine Clark", "probability": 0.009345794392523362, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:38.338Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 866234 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Steve Scalise, Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, Elise Stefanik, Steny Hoyer, James Clyburn, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Adam Schiff, Jim Jordan, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Katherine Clark" }, { "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8127/nuclear-detonation-on-a-capital-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting)).\nWill there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there is at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city. It resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 but none of the detonations meet that criterion. It resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation after this question opens and before 2024.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:42:08.675Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party's nominee will win the next French presidential election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176649734", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured parties may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Should a Party change only its name and maintain its original composition, then that Party will continue to trade under its original name. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", "options": [ { "name": "En Marche!", "probability": 0.7702324833405715, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The Republicans", "probability": 0.09077739982228164, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "National Rally", "probability": 0.11051161717495156, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "La France insoumise", "probability": 0.019552055346337586, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Party", "probability": 0.005295348322966429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Debout la France", "probability": 0.0036310959928912657, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.461Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 26083.77 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "En Marche!, The Republicans, National Rally, La France insoumise, Socialist Party, Debout la France" }, { "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:57:04.527Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 407, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\nIn 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n. . .\nOn March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n. . .\nIt remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\nWill women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to 2024-01-06. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to 2024-01-06; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after 2024-01-06 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:50:20.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-09-13T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-06T06:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI%282020%29652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 9 June 2021: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:08.682Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1132, "numforecasters": 261, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" }, { "title": "Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nIt is asked:Will a living human set their foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC?\nResolution is by credible media report. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:47:02.127Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 426, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7534/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Los Angeles, California in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Karen Bass", "probability": 0.6818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kevin de León", "probability": 0.15454545454545454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Buscaino", "probability": 0.13636363636363635, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Feuer", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wendy Greuel", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Krekorian", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:02.289Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 5239 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Karen Bass, Kevin de León, Joe Buscaino, Mike Feuer, Wendy Greuel, Paul Krekorian" }, { "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:48:15.187Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Renacci", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A832", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:46:31.158Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 245, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:47:44.034Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 212, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995-will-us-federal-legislation-implementing-or-authorizing-a-mandatory-carbon-pricing-mechanism-become-law-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States ([Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program](https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system ([World Bank](https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing)). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System ([European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en)), the California Cap-and-Trade Program ([California Air Resources Board](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program)), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ([RGGI](https://www.rggi.org/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:45.444Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 215, "numforecasters": 79, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question.\nWill there be a US-Iran war by 2024?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-Iran war is defined as the US and Iran collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Iran or between Iran and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe will use [the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies' definition of battle-related deaths](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nRelated questions\n--- \n[What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7881/critical-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3462/will-there-be-a-us-iran-war-in-2020/)\n--- \n[US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3451/us-invades-and-attempts-a-regime-change-in-iran-in-2020/)\n--- \n[How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3453/how-many-cyberattacks-by-iran-against-us-govt-systems-in-q1-2020/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:29:19.342Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the price of $MATIC be on November 11, 2021? ", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-matic-be-on-november-11-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a scalar market on the price of cryptocurrency $MATIC on November 11, 2021, at 12:00 PM ET. \n\nThe lower bound for this market is $1.50, and the upper bound is $2.50. The resolution source for this market will be prices listed on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon). \n\nThis market will resolve on the “C” (i.e. the closing price) listed for the candle titled “Thu 11 November 2021, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on November 11, 2021. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) If CoinGecko is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be chosen in good faith to resolve the market. \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with $MATIC’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.", "options": [ { "name": "Long", "probability": "0.4154261441469135496412907426539527", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Short", "probability": "0.5845738558530864503587092573460473", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "549", "liquidity": "25021.99", "tradevolume": "76775.27", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short" }, { "title": "Which Party's candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176964", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. In the event of any uncertainty over which party each candidate represents the Party as defined by the Federal Election Commission will be used for settlement. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.", "options": [ { "name": "Democratic Party", "probability": 0.4553083357486131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican Party", "probability": 0.5095678783507795, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Any Other", "probability": 0.0351237859006073, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.462Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 24671.35 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party, Any Other" }, { "title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the [disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump). On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, [posted a tweet](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445) that made the following claim (archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20210505170845/https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445)):\nI don’t think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don’t admit DC and PR, they’ll lose the Senate until at least 2030\nIf Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n--- \nWashington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before 2029-12-31, and \n--- \nthe Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 ([the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congresses)).\nIf Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period the question resolves negatively. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31st, 2029, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:12:11.388Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8050/israel-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. [The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1435398469292904450)\nWill Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that Israel has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:21:59.134Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "a S&P 500 company other than TSLA publicly purchases $1B or more in BTC this year", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1162", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-02-08T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8134/deadly-clash-between-india-and-china-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Another [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/) asks about a potential conflict before 2024.\nThis question asks what might happen by 2023.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2022-12-31 UTC.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:57:25.113Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:23:38.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 155, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Samoa in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Samoa is Fiame Naomi Mata'afa, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Samoa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 60 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0092242", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9907758, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Samoa", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Fiame Naomi Mata'afa", "month_risk": "0.0003286", "annual_risk": "0.0092242", "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", "regime_years": "60", "leader_years": "0.4166667", "country_code": "WSM", "country_abb": "WSM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:10:11.823Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:46:22.374Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 314, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 14 June 2021: The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:46:22.522Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 921, "numforecasters": 165, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Republic of the Congo is Nguesso, who has been in power for 24.2 years. Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0195577", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9804423, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Republic of the Congo", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Nguesso", "month_risk": "0.0007589", "annual_risk": "0.0195577", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "24", "leader_years": "24.16667", "country_code": "COG", "country_abb": "CON" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:33:29.945Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2085-what-will-be-the-closing-price-per-barrel-for-west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-on-31-december-2021-according-to-bloomberg", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30.00", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $45.00 but less than $60.00", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $75.00 but less than $90.00", "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $90.00", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:17.147Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 606, "numforecasters": 130, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30.00, Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive, More than $45.00 but less than $60.00, Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive, More than $75.00 but less than $90.00, More than $90.00" }, { "title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?\nThis question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n---at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, etc\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:06:49.080Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:16:42.262Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 243, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n“The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.\nWill soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nThe relevant process must eliminate sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to any of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6599999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:57:37.576Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:39:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", "platform": "Good Judgment", "description": "Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.", "options": [ { "name": "At or below 2020 levels", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by more than 100%", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-03T12:00:05.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, "extra": { "superforecastercommentary": "\n \n \n\n
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "At or below 2020 levels, Higher by between 0% and 100%, Higher by more than 100%" }, { "title": "Rs win NC 2022 Senate", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1522", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:38.082Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 29109 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in East Timor in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of East Timor is Francisco Guterres, who has been in power for 4.6 years. East Timor has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 20 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0146174", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9853826, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "East Timor", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Francisco Guterres", "month_risk": "0.000733", "annual_risk": "0.0146174", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "20", "leader_years": "4.583333", "country_code": "TLS", "country_abb": "ETM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for July 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2168-how-many-job-openings-in-the-us-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-july-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the third consecutive month in August 2021 ([FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retailers-forecast-disappointing-holiday-season-labor-shortage), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-459c0884721a213985cdf0185a1176f8)). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for July 2022, expected in September 2022 ([BLS - JOLTS](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm)). For July 2021, the number of job openings for \"Total US\" was 11,098 (in thousands) ([JOLTS - August 2021](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_10122021.pdf), see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 6 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million", "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11 million", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:15.931Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "numforecasters": 30, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6 million, Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive, More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million, Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive, More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million, Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive, More than 11 million" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Uganda in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Uganda is Museveni, who has been in power for 35.9 years. Uganda has a personal regime type which has lasted for 36 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0195445", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9804555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Uganda", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Museveni", "month_risk": "0.000502", "annual_risk": "0.0195445", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "36", "leader_years": "35.91667", "country_code": "UGA", "country_abb": "UGA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\nThe speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\nFormer President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\nTrump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.\nWill Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15th 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:48:46.456Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:14:13.867Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/) asked if the United States would rejoin the JCPOA, informally known as the [Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) before 2022. Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal.\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2023-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2023-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:19:23.258Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-05-03T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Zambia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Zambia is Lungu, who has been in power for 6.9 years. Zambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0222465", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9777535, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.754Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Zambia", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Lungu", "month_risk": "0.0033795", "annual_risk": "0.0222465", "risk_change_percent": "0.25", "regime_years": "10", "leader_years": "6.916667", "country_code": "ZMB", "country_abb": "ZAM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/vr-outsells-ar-headsets-in-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:19:29.537Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 335, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Kenya in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Kenya is Kenyatta, who has been in power for 8.7 years. Kenya has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0133223", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9866777, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Kenya", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Kenyatta", "month_risk": "0.000827", "annual_risk": "0.0133223", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "19", "leader_years": "8.666667", "country_code": "KEN", "country_abb": "KEN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:03:22.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 156, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Trinidad and Tobago in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Trinidad and Tobago is Rowley, who has been in power for 6.3 years. Trinidad and Tobago has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0033668", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9966332, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Trinidad and Tobago", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Rowley", "month_risk": "0.0002809", "annual_risk": "0.0033668", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "59", "leader_years": "6.25", "country_code": "TTO", "country_abb": "TRI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before November 16, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/HRECNC-004", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If Congress.gov contains documentation of a bill that “passed House” after the date of Issuance and before November 16, 2021 and contains reconciliation instructions, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see HRECNC in the Rulebook for such details.\n\nSuch bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…\". The resolution source is: Bills that have passed the House, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 39, "yes_ask": 76, "spread": 37, "shares_volume": 82032 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S. Senate on 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:07:35.026Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 80741 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "23 or fewer, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or more" }, { "title": "Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2156-will-a-cryptocurrency-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-the-nyse-and-or-nasdaq-stock-exchanges-before-31-december-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue ([The Block](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/119365/sec-rolls-decisions-on-four-bitcoin-etf-applications-to-end-of-2021), [CP24](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-clash-grayscales-ceo-says-secs-gensler-shortsighted-in-backing-a-bitcoin-futures-etf-11633271596)). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count ([Investopedia - Stablecoin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp), [Investopedia - CBDC](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:50.749Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "numforecasters": 50, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.6633663366336634, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.33663366336633666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:33.861Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 71824 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:02:10.017Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 77455 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the French territory of New Caledonia vote for its independence (or \"full sovereignty\") in the referendum planned on December 12, 2021?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). The question that will be put to New Caledonians is: « Do you want New Caledonia to achieve full sovereignty and independence? » More info on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_Caledonian_independence_referendum) ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1485148514851485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8514851485148515, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:31:10.317Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 276, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?\n---Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008 \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n-----------------------------------------------\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel_in_2021) and [Jewish Virtual Library](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel) pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.\nIf only one of the sources reports over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 500 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:02:30.965Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 398, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-10T06:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Saule Omarova be confirmed as Comptroller of the Currency by Jan. 31?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7511/Will-Saule-Omarova-be-confirmed-as-Comptroller-of-the-Currency-by-Jan-31", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Saule Omarova is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Comptroller of the Currency at the Department of Treasury by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:06.118Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 7710 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:59:03.052Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7786/100-deaths-in-india-pakistan-conflict-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since [partition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India), [India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) and [Pakistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) have had a [tense relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and [many conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:58:42.629Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29)), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.\nWill the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030 and after January 1st 2020, the S&P 500 moves by more than 15.0% from opening to closing price, in a single day.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:43:55.596Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-07-20T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the bipartisan infrastructure bill become law by November 8, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/INFRALW-006", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If Congress.gov’s legislation tracker shows that H.R.3684 has “Become Law” by November 08, 2021 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see INFRALW in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: Bills that have become law, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 11, "yes_ask": 74, "spread": 63, "shares_volume": 132322 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:32:20.472Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 213, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:13:08.670Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 197, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:52:04.336Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 253, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:07:08.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 378, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2089-at-close-of-business-on-15-december-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-3-november-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 14-15 December 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Same", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:12.851Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "numforecasters": 59, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, { "title": "When will total cases of COVID-19 in Canada reach 2 million or more, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2163-when-will-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada-reach-2-million-or-more-according-to-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "While COVID-19 cases in Canada have begun to fall again, concerns remain for a resurgence with the onset of winter ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-cases-hospitals-resurgence-flu-season-1.6212516)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\" The question will close on available data no later than 26 April 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Before 24 December 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 24 December and 22 January 2022", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 22 February and 23 March 2022", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022", "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 23 April 2022", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:28.251Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "numforecasters": 40, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 24 December 2021, Between 24 December and 22 January 2022, Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022, Between 22 February and 23 March 2022, Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, Not before 23 April 2022" }, { "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) \nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:20:36.682Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Jeff Bartos", "probability": 0.5272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sean Parnell", "probability": 0.3181818181818181, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carla Sands", "probability": 0.07272727272727272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathy Barnette", "probability": 0.027272727272727268, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", "probability": 0.01818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Everett Stern", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ryan Costello", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guy Reschenthaler", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Dent", "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:19.063Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 75295 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Bartos, Sean Parnell, Carla Sands, Kathy Barnette, Donald Trump Jr., Everett Stern, Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Charlie Dent" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Malaysia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Malaysia is Muhyiddin Yassin, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Malaysia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 4 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.009486", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.990514, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Malaysia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Muhyiddin Yassin", "month_risk": "0.000359", "annual_risk": "0.009486", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "4", "leader_years": "1.75", "country_code": "MYS", "country_abb": "MAL" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the MLB reach a collective bargaining deal with players by January 4, 2022?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MLBCBA-001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If a notice indicates that the owners of the Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association have ratified a new Collective Bargaining Agreement by January 04, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see MLBCBA in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Notices on the websites of the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) and Major League Baseball (MLB) (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 35, "yes_ask": 65, "spread": 30, "shares_volume": 15378 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Albania in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Albania is Rama, who has been in power for 8.3 years. Albania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0042608", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9957392, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Albania", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Rama", "month_risk": "0.0003053", "annual_risk": "0.0042608", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "30", "leader_years": "8.25", "country_code": "ALB", "country_abb": "ALB" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:37:40.738Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.\nIf no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:32:44.382Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "At least one state other than NC, OH, FL, WI, PA, AZ, GA, NV, or NH flips parties in 2022 Senate elections", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1612", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:46:06.946Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:05:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:\nWill a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?\nThis resolves positive if, before 2029, a Democratic US President signs into law a budget that provides for 500 billion dollars less in spending than the budget of the previous year.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:59:58.063Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-03-04T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party or parties will form the next Government after the 2021 Federal Election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187261461", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of voting on the day of the election. This market will be settling according to the make-up of the first federal cabinet appointed by the President after the election. In order for the selection to be settled as a winner, the new cabinet must contain the names parties only. ****This market will be settled once the government of the 20th Bundestag is sworn in to power, and betfair hold the reserve to right to suspend and settle this market***** This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2021. If more than one election takes place in 2021, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. If the 20th Bundestag is dissolved without a new government being formed this market will be made void. Customers should be aware that:
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 23%, Between 23% and 27%, inclusive, More than 27%" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:39.307Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 37302 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:57:17.036Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 402, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.21999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:41:18.490Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 20, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the corporate tax rate be raised above 26% by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CORP-002", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate to be strictly greater than 26% becomes law by 8:00 PM on December 31, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see CORP in the Rulebook for more information.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “became law.” (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 1, "yes_ask": 4, "spread": 3, "shares_volume": 26158 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2171-between-30-october-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI), [EUR-Lex](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en)). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:08.480Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7286/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on May 20, 2021, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, \"Justice\" means either a Chief Justice or an Associate Justice.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:08.830Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 281507 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:10:01.960Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 173, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2121-how-much-cash-on-hand-will-the-following-three-donald-trump-affiliated-political-action-committees-pacs-have-combined-as-of-31-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "By midyear 2021, former President Trump's political groups had over $102 million in cash on hand ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/31/trump-political-groups-82-million-501958), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trumps-political-committees-raise-82-million-2021/story?id=79194850), [donaldjtrump.com](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/news-vyjshmej7q0)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Election Commission for the second half of 2021, expected in early 2022. For the purposes of this question, the three relevant Trump-affiliated PACs are:\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $100 million", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million but less than $200 million", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$200 million or more", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:15.847Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 102, "numforecasters": 33, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 million, Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive, More than $150 million but less than $200 million, $200 million or more" }, { "title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7599/usa-withdraws-from-a-mutual-defence-treaty/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.\nCurrently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nWill the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports completion of a process for the USA to withdraw from any of the following treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports that the USA withdrew military or financial support from any of the above treaties without following the process of withdrawal outlined in the relevant treaties for a continuous period of one year.\nIf a sufficient number of parties to any of the above treaties (other than the USA) withdraws (as above) for the treaty to be dissolved, this does not count towards a positive resolution. For example see Southeast Asia Treaty which dissolved in 1977 after France and Pakistan withdrew.\nResolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. (copied verbatim from [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) )\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:09:34.057Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:44:58.019Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 731, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How much spending in the reconciliation package?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7291/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the final Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) Cost Estimate of the total outlays, including discretionary, mandatory, and any other category of spending, over ten years for the first qualifying reconciliation package bill signed into law subsequent to the launch of this market on September 23, 2021, and before the End Date listed below. \nFor the purposes of this market, a bill shall be considered a qualifying reconciliation package if it is passed pursuant to the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, and if the CBO Cost Estimate of total outlays for the bill is greater than $500 Billion over ten years. A bill that raises the federal debt limit but does not meet the above condition shall not be sufficient to settle this market. \nIf the CBO Cost Estimate does not include a specific estimate over a time period of ten years, this market shall use the largest time period that includes a defined cost estimate and such a time period is shorter than ten years. \nShould no qualifying reconciliation bill be signed into law before the End Date listed below, the contract identifying the range “$1.5T or lower” shall resolve as yes.\nAny CBO Cost Estimate released after a bill is signed into law will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "$1.5T or lower", "probability": 0.42718446601941745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$1.5T to to $1.75T", "probability": 0.22330097087378642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$1.75T to $2T", "probability": 0.2621359223300971, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$2T to $2.25T", "probability": 0.019417475728155338, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$2.25T to $2.5T", "probability": 0.019417475728155338, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$2.5T to $2.75T", "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$2.75T to $3T", "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$3T to $3.25T", "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$3.25T to $3.5T", "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$3.5T or more", "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:16.397Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1213435 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "$1.5T or lower, $1.5T to to $1.75T, $1.75T to $2T, $2T to $2.25T, $2.25T to $2.5T, $2.5T to $2.75T, $2.75T to $3T, $3T to $3.25T, $3.25T to $3.5T, $3.5T or more" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Ethiopia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Ethiopia is Abiy Ahmed, who has been in power for 3.7 years. Ethiopia has a party regime type which has lasted for 31 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0149944", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9850056, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Ethiopia", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Abiy Ahmed", "month_risk": "0.000524", "annual_risk": "0.0149944", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "31", "leader_years": "3.666667", "country_code": "ETH", "country_abb": "ETH" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n", "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:12.023Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 84229 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Tonga in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Tonga is Tu'I'onetoa, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Tonga has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 52 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0065333", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9934667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Tonga", "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Tu'I'onetoa", "month_risk": "0.0005644", "annual_risk": "0.0065333", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "52", "leader_years": "2.166667", "country_code": "TON", "country_abb": "TON" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.22999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:03:58.144Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 81042 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:29.566Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "At least one person in the NYT collectively makes at least 20 falsifiable predictions (with odds) by 3 Feb 2022", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A962", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the named candidate be in the final 2 candidates for the run-off of the next French presidential election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176650032", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on election day. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If there is no final run-off this market will be settled on the first two candidates in the first round of voting. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever wins the first round of voting. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the voting for the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", "options": [ { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", "probability": 0.4145984138429735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", "probability": 0.19454233264939524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", "probability": 0.06322625811105347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruno Retailleau", "probability": 0.00674413419851237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", "probability": 0.03612929034917341, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", "probability": 0.011495683292918812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edouard Philippe", "probability": 0.0031613129055526735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francois Baroin", "probability": 0.002023240259553711, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yanick Jadot", "probability": 0.010116201297768555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francois Asselineau", "probability": 0.005058100648884277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Zemmour", "probability": 0.25290503244421386, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.461Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 85675.74 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Bruno Retailleau, Xavier Bertrand, Anne Hidalgo, Edouard Philippe, Francois Baroin, Yanick Jadot, Francois Asselineau, Eric Zemmour" }, { "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:27:18.526Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 215, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the number of confirmed exoplanets be greater than 4,560 by November 15, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/PLANET-003", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the number of confirmed exoplanets as reported by NASA is greater than 4,560 on November 15, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nPlease see PLANET in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of confirmed exoplanets as reported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 25, "yes_ask": 55, "spread": 30, "shares_volume": 6208 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7958/will-scotus-strike-down-fed-worker-mandate/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On 9 September 2021 President Biden issued an executive order (found [here](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/09/09/executive-order-on-requiring-coronavirus-disease-2019-vaccination-for-federal-employees/)) requiring mandatory COVID vaccinations for all federal employees. \nFor further explanation, please see [Axios: Biden mandates COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing](https://www.axios.com/biden-executive-order-mandating-vaccines-4ba564a0-9498-43ef-bef8-f59f36e61418.html). Federal employees have 75 days from when the executive order was signed to get fully vaccinated, with the only exceptions being medical or religious accommodation. Those who fail to comply face discipline by their agencies up to and including termination. \nFor more information please see [Federal News Network: Biden will now require vaccines for all federal employees via new executive order](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/workforce/2021/09/biden-will-now-require-vaccines-for-all-federal-employees-via-new-executive-order/)\nThis question resolves on 23 November 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order.\nBy 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules by 23 November 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Constitution. If it does not, the question will resolve negative. If the Court decides on any aspect of this case without addressing any issues of constitutionality, the question will resolve negative.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:09:49.589Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-24T03:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-11-25T17:17:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will either Sinema or Manchin leave the Democratic Party by March 1?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7554/Will-either-Sinema-or-Manchin-leave-the-Democratic-Party-by-March-1", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, either Senator Kyrsten Sinema or Senator Joe Manchin definitively and unconditionally withdraws from the Democratic Party. The participation or membership of both Senators in the Senate Democratic Caucus shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to No. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:38.495Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 12281 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:22:15.184Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.\nWill China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:33:20.883Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Ron DeSantis", "probability": 0.7735849056603773, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Fried", "probability": 0.11320754716981131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Crist", "probability": 0.09433962264150944, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Val Demings", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annette Taddeo", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:52.080Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 452259 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Nikki Fried, Charlie Crist, Val Demings, Annette Taddeo" }, { "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?\nIf there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?\nThis question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:13:53.216Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in San Marino in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of San Marino is Venturini and Nicolini, who has been in power for 0.7 years. San Marino has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 421 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.000787", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.999213, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "San Marino", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Venturini and Nicolini", "month_risk": "0.0000666", "annual_risk": "0.000787", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "421", "leader_years": "0.6666667", "country_code": "SMR", "country_abb": "SNM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:38:14.739Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 204, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:38:58.426Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 401, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.\nOnce the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.\nThe deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands.\nWill EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?\nResolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:34:54.135Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:37:07.609Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 209, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/catalonia-independence-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nBy 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:22:04.342Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 408, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:06:58.404Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 246, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:21.653Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 157, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2094-01-01T23:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In France, which right-wing politicians will compete in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "There can be multiple correct answers. The shares of each correct answer will be worth 100ℍ / N (rounded to nearest integer), where N is the nicer of correct answers. The shares of the wrongs answers will be worthless (0ℍ). \"Compete\" means that the politician's name is on the ballot on election day. ", "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", "probability": 0.34615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruno Retailleau", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "François Baroin", "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Édouard Philippe", "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michel Barnier", "probability": 0.5673076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "None of the above", "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Bruno Retailleau, Laurent Wauquiez, François Baroin, Édouard Philippe, Michel Barnier, None of the above" }, { "title": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:24:41.911Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
![\"1507\"](\"https://goodjudgment.io/agp/1f82f2/current.png\" "\\"1507\\"")
![\"Plot](\"https://goodjudgment.io/agpe/key3.png\")
", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, but the president will announce someone else's nomination to be Chairman", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, and the president will not announce anyone's nomination to be Chairman before 6 February 2022 ", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-03T12:00:04.278Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, "extra": { "superforecastercommentary": "
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No, but the president will announce someone else's nomination to be Chairman, No, and the president will not announce anyone's nomination to be Chairman before 6 February 2022 " }, { "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:35:45.830Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 304, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": ">=48 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1662", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2127-what-will-be-the-us-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Office vacancy rates increased sharply during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([Flatland KC](https://www.flatlandkc.org/news-issues/future-of-work-the-future-of-workplaces/), [NY Business Journal](https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2021/09/07/columbia-property-trust-acquired.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-commercial-real-estate)). The outcome will be determined using the US office vacancy rate as reported in the Colliers Q4 2022 Office Market Outlook report, expected in February 2023 ([Colliers](https://www.colliers.com/en/countries/united-states/commercial-real-estate-research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 11.4%; the rate for Q2 2021, at question launch, was 14.7% ([Colliers - Q4 2019](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/2019-q4-us-office-market-outlook-report), [Colliers - Q2 2021](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/office-market-outlook-q2-2021)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 12.5%", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 17.0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:58.741Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "numforecasters": 32, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive, Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%, Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive, Higher than 17.0%" }, { "title": "Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2133-will-single-use-plastic-bags-be-banned-in-all-of-the-uae-before-8-january-2023", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags ([Gulf Business](https://gulfbusiness.com/how-data-is-quantifying-the-impact-of-plastic-on-the-environment/), [Arabian Business](https://www.arabianbusiness.com/culture-society/442488-abu-dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/next/2020/01/24/dubai-acts-to-stem-the-tide-of-single-use-plastic)). A ban imposed either by the UAE government or all seven individual emirate governments would count. The ban must take effect during the question's open period to count. A ban with limited exceptions (e.g., medical uses) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:44.748Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 81, "numforecasters": 48, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:10:32.357Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the margin in the New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7563/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for Phil Murphy and the percentage of votes for Jack Ciattarelli in the 2021 general election for Governor of New Jersey.\nPercentages of the vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. Should the two candidates receive the same number of votes, this market will resolve to the contract titled \"Murphy under 2%.\" \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Ciattarelli ≥ 2%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ciattarelli under 2%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy under 2%", "probability": 0.03508771929824561, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy 2% to 4%", "probability": 0.6666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy 4% to 6%", "probability": 0.23684210526315788, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy 6% to 8%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy 8% to 10%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy 10% to 12%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy 12% to 14%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Murphy, ≥ 14%", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:01.323Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1973271 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Ciattarelli ≥ 2%, Ciattarelli under 2%, Murphy under 2%, Murphy 2% to 4%, Murphy 4% to 6%, Murphy 6% to 8%, Murphy 8% to 10%, Murphy 10% to 12%, Murphy 12% to 14%, Murphy, ≥ 14%" }, { "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:26.774Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:05.521Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Serbia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Serbia is Ana Brnabic, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Serbia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0048933", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9951067, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Serbia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ana Brnabic", "month_risk": "0.0004261", "annual_risk": "0.0048933", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "21", "leader_years": "4.5", "country_code": "SRB", "country_abb": "YUG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will it be possible to buy a Tesla online in the US using Bitcoin before 2022?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-it-be-possible-to-buy-a-tesla-online-using-bitcoin-before-2022", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is possible to go to the official Tesla website, https://www.tesla.com/, and complete an online purchase for any Tesla vehicle using Bitcoin, from the United States (without having to use a VPN), before January 1, 2022, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.138307796194958057094816718123571", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.861692203805041942905183281876429", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "377", "liquidity": "5407.94", "tradevolume": "21759.02", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:41:15.834Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 198, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", "probability": 0.40178571428571425, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", "probability": 0.2232142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", "probability": 0.17857142857142858, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", "probability": 0.125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", "probability": 0.017857142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", "probability": 0.017857142857142856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:03:53.770Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 148196 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Abiy Ahmed, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Félix Tshisekedi, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame, Emmerson Mnangagwa" }, { "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1842", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/inflation-above-3-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nWill the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?\nThis resolves according to data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5900000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:31:36.543Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-09-01T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:42:53.169Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 152, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:51:02.029Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 153, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which EU country will be the next to hold an In/Out referendum on its European Union membership?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129176457", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day that the In/Out referendum is officially held in an EU country. If no referendum takes place before 2022 the selection 'No Refefrendum Before 2022' will be settled as the winner. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", "options": [ { "name": "No Referendum Before 2022", "probability": 0.9662149575224211, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Italy", "probability": 0.002168615793550323, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", "probability": 0.0019517542141952908, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Poland", "probability": 0.0019915859328523376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hungary", "probability": 0.0027882203059932725, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ireland", "probability": 0.0024396927677441133, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Netherlands", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Denmark", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Spain", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Austria", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greece", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Czech Republic", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Portugal", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Slovenia", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luxembourg", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sweden", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyprus", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Slovakia", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bulgaria", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Finland", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malta", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belgium", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Croatia", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Estonia", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Latvia", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lithuania", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Romania", "probability": 0.0009758771070976454, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 102656.98 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "No Referendum Before 2022, Italy, France, Poland, Hungary, Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Austria, Greece, Czech Republic, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Sweden, Cyprus, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Finland, Malta, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania" }, { "title": "When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2077-when-will-the-7-day-average-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-the-uk-next-fall-below-15-000", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK began facing a new surge in COVID-19 cases in late June 2021 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/19/1017877573/england-has-lifted-most-of-its-covid-19-restrictions), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/uk-closely-watched-with-its-vaccine-program-and-surge-in-cases.html)). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK government under \"Cases by date reported\" ([Coronavirus.data.co.uk](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases)). If the question is still open as of 17 December 2021, data available for resolution will be evaluated on 24 December 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Before 11 September 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 18 December 2021", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:37.872Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 902, "numforecasters": 143, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 11 September 2021, Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021, Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021, Not before 18 December 2021" }, { "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:28:08.379Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 361, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.\nWill three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?\nThis question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.\nThis question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.\nIn the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:34:21.926Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:52:25.412Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Polymarket has grown to host more than $100 million in total volume to date.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ coins, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market?\n---Market is considered to be \"wrongfully resolved\" if Polymarket confirms that or if a supermajority of Metaculus moderators/admins (2/3) thinks that the resolution does not correspond to resolution criteria.\n------This question will not resolve positively if the affected users are compensated within a week after the problem is noticed (e.g. on Polymarket Discord). \n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the platform ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their coins &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's coins would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n[Edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-27: clarified that a supermajority is 2/3.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:55:33.223Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:28:50.150Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 403, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7640/dominic-cummings-in-power-again/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Dominic Cummings is a [British political strategist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings) most known for his role as Chief Advisor to Boris Johnson from 24 July 2019 until 13 November 2020, and for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n---Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n---holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System) \nWill Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?\nAt question resolution time, a lone Metaculus moderator will consider whether there is a case to be made that resolution is ambiguous. If there is such a case to be made, the question resolves by simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators or admins. Otherwise, the lone Metaculus moderators resolves the question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:48:26.257Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Gabon in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Gabon is Ondimba, who has been in power for 12.2 years. Gabon has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 61 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0183526", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9816474, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Gabon", "regime_type": "Party-Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ondimba", "month_risk": "0.0006072", "annual_risk": "0.0183526", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "61", "leader_years": "12.16667", "country_code": "GAB", "country_abb": "GAB" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2066-before-1-january-2022-will-the-european-commission-ec-recommend-that-the-council-of-the-european-union-authorize-the-ec-to-open-negotiations-with-taiwan-on-an-investment-agreement", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/meps-push-brussels-follow-biden-taiwan-trade-eu-parliament-china/), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/AFET-PR-691427_EN.pdf)). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council ([EC](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf), [European Parliament - Question to Commission](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691_EN.html), [European Parliament - Commission Response](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691-ASW_EN.html)). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 ([EC](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_13_458), [EC](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2541)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:47.233Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 178, "numforecasters": 76, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:47:29.314Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 128, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:28:05.395Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lucas Kunce", "probability": 0.693069306930693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Sifton", "probability": 0.2079207920792079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Quinton Lucas", "probability": 0.04950495049504951, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Koster", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Nixon", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Williams", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:34.020Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 33451 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucas Kunce, Scott Sifton, Quinton Lucas, Claire McCaskill, Chris Koster, Jay Nixon, Brian Williams" }, { "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:25:53.317Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 152, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:02:39.439Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 202, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API.\nIf a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?\nTo resolve positively:\n--- \nThe model paper should be published on arXiv or on the ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML (top machine learning conferences) websites before the end of 2022.\n--- \nIt should at least be an API or graphical user interface with a language model option where you could send a text prompt and it returns text. If for instance there is a new Deep Learning model that uses 5x more compute than GPT-3 but does not provide any way to produce text from text, that does not count.\n--- \nYou should be able to get one API call/send one prompt by paying less than $1k from a publicly accessible source on the clear web that you can find using one google search. This rule is to force the accessibility to end-user.\n------ \nThe $1k limit insists on it being business-to-consumer and not business-to-business.\n------ \nThe public url from one google search dismisses any leak of the model where you would need to do extra steps yourself or have private information of a token/password protected url (cf. [DeepNude](https://www.theregister.com/2019/06/27/deepfake_nudes_app_pulled/) where you needed to do some hacking to get access to the model after the author removed it publicly)\nIf a model meets the first two resolution criteria by 2022, but the third criterion (about public access) is not met, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:22:31.734Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-05-30T20:26:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-06T21:27:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:42:03.695Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Pakistan in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Pakistan is Imran Khan, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Pakistan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.010917", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.989083, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Pakistan", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Imran Khan", "month_risk": "0.0003389", "annual_risk": "0.010917", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "13", "leader_years": "3.333333", "country_code": "PAK", "country_abb": "PAK" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:42:34.603Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:28:18.725Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 207, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-01T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MTA-017", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,776,386 for the week ending November 07 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see MTA in the Rulebook for details.\n\nAny instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 64, "yes_ask": 70, "spread": 6, "shares_volume": 3098 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:33:08.919Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7816/prototype-of-tesla-bot-by-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\nTesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\nMusk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\nThe robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/).\nWill Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if both of these criteria are fulfilled:\n1-- \nBefore 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:\n* A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.\n* The official website of Tesla, Inc.\n* A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.\n* Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.\n* A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.\n2-- \nThe revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material. \nFor the purpose of this question \"a prototype of a humanoid robot\" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be \"outside\" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).\nA written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:41:31.314Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-09-30T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8444/tesla-most-valuable-traded-co-before-23/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), and Google parent Alphabet.\nWill Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:14:55.502Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2116-how-many-job-openings-in-the-trade-transportation-and-utilities-industries-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-november-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 ([US Chamber of Commerce](https://www.uschamber.com/series/above-the-fold/what-the-record-high-101-million-job-openings-means-the-economic-recovery), [Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-xpress-ceo-driver-shortage-trucking-industry-202632404.html), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/labor-shortage-gives-retail-and-restaurant-workers-the-upper-hand.html)). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 ([BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm)). For May 2021, the number of job openings for \"Trade, transportation, and utilities\" was 1,687 (in thousands) ([JOLTS - June 2021](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_08092021.pdf), see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Trade, transportation, and utilities.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.4 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million", "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.2 million or more", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:18.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 139, "numforecasters": 44, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million, Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive, More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million, 2.2 million or more" }, { "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.21999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:09:04.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2816%2930242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nThis question asks:\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:24:36.816Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:04:04.624Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:16:05.829Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2063-how-many-new-york-city-eviction-filings-will-be-reported-for-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/nyregion/new-york-city-eviction-moratorium.html), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-government-and-politics-adc276892d87afbdfff9e1a7f750f91e), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/the-eviction-moratorium-is-killing-small-landlords-says-one.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 ([Eviction Lab](https://evictionlab.org/eviction-tracking/get-the-data/)). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with \"New York\" under the \"Site\" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the \"filings_2020\" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 60,000", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 240,000", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:50.806Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 220, "numforecasters": 40, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 60,000, Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive, More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000, Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive, More than 240,000" }, { "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Prince Henry of Wales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Harry,_Duke_of_Sussex) and [Rachel Meghan Markle](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghan,_Duchess_of_Sussex) are members of the [British royal family](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_royal_family) and the current [Duke and Duchess of Sussex](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Sussex). They were married in 2018.\nWill the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?\nThis question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:15:05.866Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8300/fed-tells-banks-to-build-up-reserves/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The reserve requirement ratio (or RRR) indicates the minimum amount of reserves that must be held by commercial banks, as a percentage of their deposit liabilities. It’s one of several tools used by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and other central banks, to conduct monetary policy. China, for example, is a big fan of the RRR as a policy tool. A rise in the RRR mandates banks to accumulate reserves, removing cash from the economy – which boils down to monetary policy tightening. Besides other measures, the Fed has resorted to using the RRR: in March 2020, as part of its emergency measures suite, it lowered the RRR to 0%. And [it’s kept the policy in place since](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm).\nWill the Fed raise the RRR this year?\nThis resolves positive if the Fed [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm) officially announces a rise of its reserve requirements above 0%, before Jan. 1, 2022. This resolves negative if no rise is officially announced here (even if it is, for example, hinted at by Fed officials.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:10:36.600Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-01T23:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T23:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in USA in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of USA is Biden, who has been in power for 0.9 years. USA has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 233 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0007023", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9992977, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "USA", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Biden", "month_risk": "0.0000574", "annual_risk": "0.0007023", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "233", "leader_years": "0.9166667", "country_code": "USA", "country_abb": "USA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:19:39.936Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)\nWill there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than 1 January, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:50:15.017Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 107, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than 42.3% on November 5, 2021? ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-004", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If President Biden's approval rating is greater than 42.3% on November 5, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. . The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 93, "yes_ask": 96, "spread": 3, "shares_volume": 33210 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8164/yangs-forward-party-to-take-off/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\nFormer presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \nBusiness Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\nThe book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \nYang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?\nWill a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if any member of Congress, or the president, is at some point while holding office a member of the Forward Party before February 1st 2029. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nCredible media will be used for resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:41:26.108Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. ", "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", "probability": 0.17894736842105263, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", "probability": 0.7684210526315789, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", "probability": 0.010526315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", "probability": 0.042105263157894736, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Macron and Le Pen, Macron, but not Le Pen, Le Pen, but not Macron, Neither of them" }, { "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:02:51.919Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:43:17.048Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 370, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": ">=50 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1682", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:15:49.857Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:29.661Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 616461 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:45:23.890Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 674, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In the French presidential election of 2022, who will be the candidate of Les Républicains (right)?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "Will be considered the \"candidate\" of Les Républicains (LR) whoever receives the party's nomination, or baring that, the party's official support on the first round of the election in April 2022. ", "options": [ { "name": "Michel Barnier", "probability": 0.6019417475728155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", "probability": 0.30097087378640774, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Ciotti", "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Philippe Juvin", "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Denis Payre", "probability": 0.03883495145631068, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", "probability": 0.01941747572815534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No one", "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Michel Barnier, Xavier Bertrand, Eric Ciotti, Philippe Juvin, Denis Payre, Valérie Pécresse, Someone else, No one" }, { "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:52:08.968Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:05:48.054Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 406, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Kosovo in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Kosovo is Kurti, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Kosovo has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0074229", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9925771, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Kosovo", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Kurti", "month_risk": "0.0005003", "annual_risk": "0.0074229", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "13", "leader_years": "0.75", "country_code": "UNK", "country_abb": "KOS" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_%28Denmark%29) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:27:26.086Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:45:01.328Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 171, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8455/uk-planC-covid-measures-announced-before-feb/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if [\"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-autumn-and-winter-covid-plan)\nAccording to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following:\n---Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport) \n---Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops. \n---Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases. \nPlan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so.\n[Media](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/covid-measures-plan-c-discussed-government-official-mps) [reports](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-coronavirus-plan-c-proposed-department-of-health-science-chief-reveals-12445084) indicate there might also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan [reportedly](https://www.ft.com/content/36b198e9-ce6a-4912-b34d-9507f8a275df) might include a ban on inter-household mixing.\nWill implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if the UK Government [announces](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-office-10-downing-street), before 1 February 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing and closing of pubs.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8454/uks-covid-plan-b-announced-before-feb/) question on whether \"Plan B\" measures will be announced.\nAsking people to work from home would not count as one of the two additional measures, since this might fall under Plan B. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:19:08.977Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:44.632Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1270419 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Bangladesh in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Bangladesh is Hasina Wazed, who has been in power for 12.9 years. Bangladesh has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0037636", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9962364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Bangladesh", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Hasina Wazed", "month_risk": "0.00032", "annual_risk": "0.0037636", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "13", "leader_years": "12.91667", "country_code": "BGD", "country_abb": "BNG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7295/Will-Kevin-McCarthy-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-in-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kevin McCarthy testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.\nLive testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. \nShould Mr. McCarthy appear at any hearing whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. McCarthy submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:20.339Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 28244 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2094-when-will-the-14-day-average-of-covid-19-hospitalized-patients-in-california-next-reach-or-exceed-12-000", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/02/no-ones-invincible-fresh-mask-mandates-and-rising-delta-cases-hit-california), [KTLA](https://ktla.com/news/california/our-projections-are-sobering-california-considers-new-measures-amid-covid-surge/)). The data can be found under the plot titled \"COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California\" with the \"Hospitalized\" option selected ([COVID19.ca.gov](https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard)). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Before 15 September 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 February 2022", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:52.880Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 270, "numforecasters": 59, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 15 September 2021, Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021, Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Not before 1 February 2022" }, { "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:33:36.350Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Debt ceiling crisis resolved via reconcillation in the Senate by EOY", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2302", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-07T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\nWill the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:37:59.296Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:18:05.464Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:09:04.365Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054-will-at-least-3-5-million-people-in-new-zealand-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-before-30-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for \"second doses administered\" ([NZ Ministry of Health](https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data)). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:54.396Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 414, "numforecasters": 103, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Rs win PA 2022 Senate", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1562", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:40:16.216Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7113/fully-autonomous-tesla-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In January of 2021, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448?s=20): \"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.\" Tesla did release earlier this year the beta for what they call [Full Self-Driving Capability](https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot), which suggests an improvement on the driver assistance system, presumably with less driver input, or even none as Elon Musk suggests in his tweet.\nHowever, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-subscription-early-2021-elon-musk-2020-12), in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla \"will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year.\"\nWill a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?\nFor the definition of fully autonomous cars, we'll be referencing the \"self driving level 5\", as defined by the SAE International: \"the vehicle performs all driving tasks under all conditions. Zero human attention or interaction is required.\" We will allow cars that need human override in extreme circumstances, but we expect less than one override per car in a typical year. Besides being autonomous, the vehicle will have to perform as well as (or better than) a normal car with an average driver.\nElon Musk raised valid concerns about the regulatory environment, which might cause a delay in the adoption of the technology. I believe however that, in the case of a successful development of the required software updates and/or new prototypes, Tesla will provide enough information to the press to allow for the publication of unequivocal articles referencing explicitly the tested unit's compliance with \"self driving level 5\" requirements as defined by the SAE International. The resolution criteria will be the publication of such articles in at least two publications among the following: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com); [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/); [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com); [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) ; [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/); [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/).\nAs of April 2021, no such vehicle exists for sale to the general public anywhere in the world. Consequently, no technology available to use by the public until now can alone justify the positive resolution of this question. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:26:29.307Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 189, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-31T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T11:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:27:42.519Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 826, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", "probability": 0.5555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Perdue", "probability": 0.3055555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vernon Jones", "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kandiss Taylor", "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Collins", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marjorie Greene", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ames Barnett", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:20.971Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 328721 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, David Perdue, Vernon Jones, Kandiss Taylor, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Marjorie Greene, Ames Barnett" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritania in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Mauritania is Ould Ghazouani, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Mauritania has a personal regime type which has lasted for 13 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.018414", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.981586, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Mauritania", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ould Ghazouani", "month_risk": "0.0009399", "annual_risk": "0.018414", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "13", "leader_years": "2.333333", "country_code": "MRT", "country_abb": "MAA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before 2024?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-2024", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:02:13.707Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 116060 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2173-how-many-seats-in-the-national-assembly-will-the-fidesz-party-s-list-win-in-the-next-hungarian-parliamentary-election", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 ([Budapest Beacon](https://budapestbeacon.com/fidesz-kdnp-announces-joint-national-party-list/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/hungary-viktor-orban-wins-supermajority-for-third-consecutive-term-in-office.html)). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them ([New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/10/why-hungarys-opposition-parties-are-uniting-against-viktor-orban), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/577133-conservative-wins-hungary-opposition-race-as-anti-orban-parties-unite)). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)", "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats)", "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:03.682Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more), A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats), Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)" }, { "title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:33:40.215Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 117, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-31T21:26:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2114-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/business-formation-surged-last-year-confounding-expectations/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/u-s-business-starts-enjoyed-their-best-year-ever-amid-covid-19), [Economic Innovation Group](https://eig.org/news/the-startup-surge-business-formation-trends-in-2020)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=BFS&startYear=2004&endYear=2021&categories=TOTAL&dataType=BA_BA&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=), [Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology](https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/methodology.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 4.8 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million", "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6.0 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:30.695Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "numforecasters": 29, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4.8 million, Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive, More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million, Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive, More than 6.0 million" }, { "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:33:45.354Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 188, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:28:44.946Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 193, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Bongbong Marcos", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Manny Pacquiao", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Leni Robredo", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bong Go", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Panfilo Lacson", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Antonio Trillanes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonny Angara", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alan Peter Cayetano", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Isko Moreno", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:10:12.258Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 45052 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bongbong Marcos, Manny Pacquiao, Leni Robredo, Bong Go, Sara Duterte-Carpio, Panfilo Lacson, Antonio Trillanes, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano, Isko Moreno" }, { "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:26:20.846Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 326, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:50.090Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 72072 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Russia from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:30:26.721Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7736/unique-games-conjecture-resolution/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. It states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.\nWill the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Boaz Barak writes publicly (on Twitter, a blog, or elsewhere) that Elchanan Mossel has won the bet. It resolves negatively if he announces Subhash Khot has won. If there is no announcement by the resolve date, then it resolves positively if there is a peer reviewed paper that was originally uploaded to the ArXiv in 2030 which is accepted in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference by the resolve date. Else, it resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:52:24.698Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:43:42.749Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.\nWill George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?\nThis question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:55:06.935Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:15:44.708Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 197, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7576/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party shall be considered synonymous with the Democratic Party. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.5445544554455446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.45544554455445546, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:37.754Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 5715 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" }, { "title": "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 20, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/HRECNC-005", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If Congress.gov contains documentation of a bill that “passed House” after the date of Issuance and before December 20, 2021 and contains reconciliation instructions, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see HRECNC in the Rulebook for such details.\n\nSuch bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…\". The resolution source is: Bills that have passed the House, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 85, "yes_ask": 98, "spread": 13, "shares_volume": 5128 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_%28in_thousands%29).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:12:11.476Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:58.355Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 103927 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7975/european-army-before-2032/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\nThe European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it.\nWill there be a European Army before 2032?\nThis question will resolve positive if:\nThere is legislation passed in at least 5 European countries (including one of France, Germany, UK) which makes provisions for an army consisting of units from multiple countries.\nLower level army units (eg platoons, companies, battalions, regiments) need not be mixed. (For example, often countries have armies formed from regional regiments and are still considered national armies). However, senior levels need to be staffed by officers from a range of countries.\nThe army needs to be planned to be an \"Army\". ie a joint battalion (eg the one formed between the Dutch and Germans) would not count. For this question, this means that at least 30,000 soldiers need to be planned to be in such an army.\nThe army needs to report to a supranational organization. It need not be the an EU body or any existing organization. It does need to be specifically European. eg A G7 army would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:15:03.078Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average on November 17th be higher than it was a week earlier?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-17th-be-higher-than-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-10th", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether the United States will report a 7-day average of COVID-19 cases for the date of November 17th that is higher than the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases reported for the date of November 10th. This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select “United States”, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed at 8 PM ET on November 24th to check the 7-day average for both the dates of November 17th and November 10th. If the 7-day average for November 17th exceeds that of November 10th at this check, \"Yes\" will win. Otherwise, \"No\" will win. If the resolution source is unavailable at that time, the resolution source will be checked again at 8pm the following and each subsequent day until it is available. If the resolution source is unavailable by December 1, 2021, 8 PM ET, another credible source will be checked instead.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.4970499920291351568868382087796032", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.5029500079708648431131617912203968", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "824", "liquidity": "31387.35", "tradevolume": "97094.98", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:34:28.368Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Ghana in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Ghana is Akufo-Addo, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Ghana has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 29 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0055822", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9944178, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Ghana", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Akufo-Addo", "month_risk": "0.0005196", "annual_risk": "0.0055822", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "29", "leader_years": "4.916667", "country_code": "GHA", "country_abb": "GHA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Boris Johnson?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160843673", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. We will settle this market on the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson as published on https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister ***Updated 25/03/2020***", "options": [ { "name": "Rishi Sunak.", "probability": 0.250695582954538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keir Starmer", "probability": 0.21058428968181195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", "probability": 0.0915583868181791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", "probability": 0.038997090681817025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", "probability": 0.05849563602272553, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", "probability": 0.0376043374431807, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", "probability": 0.026323036210226494, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", "probability": 0.029247818011362767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Burnham", "probability": 0.030968277894384107, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nigel Farage", "probability": 0.016198791513985535, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Tugendhat", "probability": 0.01754869080681766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", "probability": 0.019144026334710174, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kemi Badenoch", "probability": 0.0031906710557850293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "James Cleverly", "probability": 0.009572013167355087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", "probability": 0.011083383667463786, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Rayner", "probability": 0.01754869080681766, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Nandy", "probability": 0.008099395756992768, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Barclay", "probability": 0.009572013167355087, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yvette Cooper", "probability": 0.01504173497727228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ed Davey", "probability": 0.0026997985856642556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Johnny Mercer", "probability": 0.001504173497727228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", "probability": 0.001504173497727228, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Baker", "probability": 0.003630763615203654, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Damian Hinds", "probability": 0.0021058428968181195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Harper", "probability": 0.0024486545311838597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Bercow", "probability": 0.0035097381613635324, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Miliband", "probability": 0.0023398254409090213, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tobia Ellwood", "probability": 0.0033965208013195473, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", "probability": 0.0022402584008703397, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", "probability": 0.003008346995454456, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Hancock", "probability": 0.003096827789438411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Marie Trevelyan", "probability": 0.002024848939248192, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", "probability": 0.004577919340908955, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Caroline Lucas", "probability": 0.003008346995454456, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bim Afolami", "probability": 0.0017548690806817662, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", "probability": 0.00376043374431807, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Layla Moran", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", "probability": 0.0011699127204545107, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Corbyn", "probability": 0.002148819282467469, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", "probability": 0.0031906710557850293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", "probability": 0.001332811960011468, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", "probability": 0.001784612624422135, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Davis", "probability": 0.0031906710557850293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sylvia Hermon", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kit Malthouse", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Helen Whately", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Jenkyns", "probability": 0.0014038952645454128, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Watson", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", "probability": 0.0011830578072011908, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Geoffrey Cox", "probability": 0.0015259731136363184, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Simon Jordan", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", "probability": 0.0010744096412337344, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Esther McVey", "probability": 0.0011083383667463787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hilary Benn", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emily Thornberry", "probability": 0.0010635570185950098, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jo Swinson", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dominic Grieve", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", "probability": 0.0021058428968181195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ken Clarke", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Margaret Beckett", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ian Blackford", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Saville-Roberts", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harriet Harman", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Philip Hammond", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Cameron", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daisy Cooper", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christine Jardine", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wera Hobhouse", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alistair Carmichael", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suella Braverman", "probability": 0.0010529214484090597, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nadhim Zahawi", "probability": 0.00752086748863614, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 316459.93 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak., Keir Starmer, Liz Truss, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Priti Patel, Andrew Burnham, Nigel Farage, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Steve Barclay, Yvette Cooper, Ed Davey, Johnny Mercer, Sadiq Khan, Steve Baker, Damian Hinds, Mark Harper, John Bercow, David Miliband, Tobia Ellwood, Jess Phillips, Rory Stewart, Matthew Hancock, Anne Marie Trevelyan, Alok Sharma, Caroline Lucas, Bim Afolami, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Layla Moran, Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Corbyn, Rosena Allin-Khan, Ruth Davidson, Robert Jenrick, David Davis, Sylvia Hermon, Kit Malthouse, Helen Whately, Andrea Jenkyns, Tom Watson, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox, Simon Jordan, Amber Rudd, Esther McVey, Hilary Benn, Emily Thornberry, Jo Swinson, Dominic Grieve, John McDonnell, Ken Clarke, Margaret Beckett, Ian Blackford, Liz Saville-Roberts, Harriet Harman, Philip Hammond, David Cameron, Daisy Cooper, Christine Jardine, Wera Hobhouse, Alistair Carmichael, Suella Braverman, Nadhim Zahawi" }, { "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:04:51.026Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will year-to-year inflation in the European Union be 4.3% or more in October?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-year-to-year-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-4pt3-or-more-in-october", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from October 2020 to October 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in October 2021 is 4.3 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for October 2021 is scheduled for 17 November 2021.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nIn the euro area, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is used to measure consumer price inflation. That means the change over time in the prices of consumer goods and services purchased by euro area households. It is “harmonised” because all the countries in the European Union follow the same methodology. This ensures that the data for one country can be compared with the data for another.\n\nNote that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.7573786451614167285394113973717572", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.2426213548385832714605886026282428", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "178", "liquidity": "4673.95", "tradevolume": "28116.62", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:29:44.748Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 214, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:59:23.594Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 53, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8405/us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\nAfter months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\nTo squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\nDetails of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\nThe Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually.\nWill a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be \"realized\", or sold to yield a profit.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:26:39.509Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:30:44.410Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 385, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2028-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:57:47.955Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-01-01T23:58:00Z", "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 08/04/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 08/04/2021 4:58 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: At the End Date, should any individual be acting governor of New York due to an ongoing process of impeachment of Mr. Cuomo, his absence from the state, or other temporary circumstance making Mr. Cuomo otherwise unable to discharge the powers and duties of Governor of New York, this market shall resolve to Yes.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:54.015Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 4534569 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nJohnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.\nAs of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and [the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307)\nThe spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\".\nThe PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\".\nMr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.\nAs of late April 2021, [Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021), a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021.\nWill Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.030000000000000027, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:11:28.055Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 259, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:00.341Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 319, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?\nWe define a world war as a war that either, \n---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR \n---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. \nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.\nStill, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:07:20.597Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 412, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104-will-sir-keir-starmer-face-a-formal-challenge-for-the-leadership-of-the-labour-party-before-4-april-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-wins-contest-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-11968442), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-be-reinstated-as-labour-mp-under-leftwing-challenge-to-starmer), [Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377)). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs ([Institute for Government](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/labour-party-leadership-contests), [Labour Party Rule Book 2020](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Rule-Book-2020.pdf), see Chapter 4, Clause II).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:41.465Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 175, "numforecasters": 94, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Rudy Giuliani testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee by Mar. 31?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7507/Will-Rudy-Giuliani-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-by-Mar-31", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rudy Giuliani testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.\nLive testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. \nShould Mr. Giuliani appear at any hearing, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Giuliani submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:11:52.577Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1811 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:27:23.659Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 123, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:01:02.756Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:03:33.809Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 202325 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\nToday, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.\nWill US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there is any year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:57:51.192Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2170-what-will-be-the-closing-price-for-aluminum-per-metric-ton-mt-on-29-april-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides ([Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aluminum-makers-sound-alarm-u-223623072.html), [Capital.com](https://capital.com/aluminium-rebounds-as-china-power-worries-resurface)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LMAHDS03:COM), [London Metal Exchange](https://www.lme.com/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than $2,000", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600", "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$3,200 or higher", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:10.557Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than $2,000, Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive, Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600, Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive, Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200, $3,200 or higher" }, { "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:43:40.124Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-16T10:05:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:15:57.633Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8140/india-have-200-nuclear-warheads-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.\nWill India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:27:00.086Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the \"Paris Rulebook,\" the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2106-will-the-26th-un-climate-change-conference-of-the-parties-cop26-announce-the-finalization-of-the-paris-rulebook-the-rules-for-implementing-the-2015-paris-agreement-before-16-november-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "A majority of the \"Paris Rulebook\" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/with-100-days-to-cop26-what-are-these-climate-talks-and-why-are-they-so-important-12361324), [World Resources Institute](https://www.wri.org/paris-rulebook), [Gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/july-ministerial-chairs-summary), [Environmental Defense Fund](https://www.edf.org/climate/implementing-paris-climate-agreement)). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 ([UKCOP26.org](https://ukcop26.org/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:34.882Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 210, "numforecasters": 106, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:13:24.183Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Senegal in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Senegal is Macky Sall, who has been in power for 9.7 years. Senegal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0090797", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9909203, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Senegal", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Macky Sall", "month_risk": "0.000807", "annual_risk": "0.0090797", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "22", "leader_years": "9.666667", "country_code": "SEN", "country_abb": "SEN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Democrat other than Tim Ryan", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A862", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the USA or European Union report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 16?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-usa-or-european-union-report-higher-per-capita-covid-19-cases-count-on-november-16", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether the United States of America or European Union will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 16, 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for the United States and European Union, with Metric \"Confirmed Cases\", Interval \"7-day rolling average\", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.\n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed on November 17th at 11 PM ET and - if the data for November 16 will not be available then - checked again every 12 hours, until the final check on November 22, 2021, 11 PM ET. \nIf the data is not available by then, this market will resolve based on other credible sources for the day of November 16. \n\nIf the United States of America has a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita for the day of November 16, 2021, the market will resolve to \"USA.\" If the European Union has a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita for the day of November 16, 2021, the market will resolve to \"European Union.\" If the averages per capita are the same, the market will resolve 50/50.\n--------------------\n\nOWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. \n\nHere: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources.", "options": [ { "name": "USA", "probability": "0.1086625764008350747607471201805207", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "European Union", "probability": "0.8913374235991649252392528798194793", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "30", "liquidity": "2715.85", "tradevolume": "4248.46", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, European Union" }, { "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:00:36.867Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 162, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2097-before-13-february-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-in-iran-or-at-sea-between-the-national-military-or-law-enforcement-forces-of-iran-and-those-of-either-israel-or-a-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-member-state", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Regional tensions involving Iran continue ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rocket-sirens-sound-northern-israel-golan-heights-israeli-miltary-says-2021-08-06/), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-israel-tanker-attack/2021/08/01/d48bae2e-f2bf-11eb-a636-18cac59a98dc_story.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58083671)). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf ([GCC](https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:46.335Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 126, "numforecasters": 74, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:42:55.353Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 245, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Eric Zemmour be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) asks how likely extinction is within 20 years of such a population decline. This question is intended as an imperfect proxy for the chance of another type of existential catastrophe: Unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse). \n(See also [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/).)\nWill human population size recover to 5b by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400m without extinction occurring within 20 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million sometime before 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years of that population decline, and the population recovers to >5 billion people sometime by the year 3000 (whether or not it remains >5 billion in the year 3000). The question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years, and the population remains below 5 billion from then till the year 3000 (whether this involves extinction or not, and regardless of what happens after 3000). The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100 or if extinction occurs within 20 years of such a population fall.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about such extreme events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nFor simplicity, this question will not attempt to distinguish truly unrecoverable collapses from \"merely\" those in which no recover occurs until after 3000 and will not attempt to consider any dimensions of collapse or recovery other than population size. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:00:57.503Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in China from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:04:23.096Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:52:25.938Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be elected Atlanta mayor in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7275/Who-will-be-elected-Atlanta-mayor-in-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Atlanta, Georgia in the 2021 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Felicia Moore", "probability": 0.7706422018348623, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andre Dickens", "probability": 0.14678899082568805, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keisha Bottoms", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Norwood", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharon Gay", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alex Barrella", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kasim Reed", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Carter", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cathy Woolard", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Koonin", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Antonio Brown", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:04.664Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 133214 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Felicia Moore, Andre Dickens, Keisha Bottoms, Mary Norwood, Sharon Gay, Alex Barrella, Kasim Reed, Jason Carter, Cathy Woolard, Steve Koonin, Antonio Brown" }, { "title": "In France, which political outsiders will compete in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "There can be multiple correct answers. The shares of each correct answer will be worth 100ℍ / N (rounded to nearest integer), where N is the nicer of correct answers. The shares of the wrongs answers will be worthless (0ℍ). - To qualify as an \"Outsider\", the candidate must not have ever been a professional politician. - \"Compete\" means that the politician's name is on the ballot on election day. ", "options": [ { "name": "Eric Zemmour", "probability": 0.8703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Hanouna", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michel Onfray", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Didier Raoult", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Marie Bigard", "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A yellow jacket personality", "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Assa Traoré", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "None of the above", "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Zemmour, Cyril Hanouna, Michel Onfray, Didier Raoult, Jean-Marie Bigard, A yellow jacket personality, Assa Traoré, None of the above" }, { "title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive. If there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:11:55.923Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2136-will-the-james-webb-telescope-be-launched-successfully-before-1-january-2023", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched ([Vox](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22664709/james-webb-space-telescope-launch-date-december-science-hubble), [NASA](https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/)). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation ([Arianespace](https://www.arianespace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Arianespace_Brochure_Ariane5_Sept2019.pdf), [WebTelescope.org](https://webbtelescope.org/contents/media/videos/1058-Video)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 24 September 2021: When launch, the question read \"...before 1 January 2023.\" It has been revised to \"...before 1 January 2022.\"\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:38.664Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 153, "numforecasters": 51, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Sanofi comercialize a Covid-19 vaccine under its brand in 2021?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": " ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5882352941176471, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.972Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:13.394Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 494, "numforecasters": 184, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/)\nThe US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\".\nWill the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be [CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:51:58.724Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 384, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:18:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.33999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:25:13.500Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Sao Tome and Principe in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Sao Tome and Principe is Carvalho, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Sao Tome and Principe has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0211614", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9788386, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Sao Tome and Principe", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Carvalho", "month_risk": "0.0005673", "annual_risk": "0.0211614", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "31", "leader_years": "5.25", "country_code": "STP", "country_abb": "STP" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7569/peak-deaths-from--wave-worse-in-uk-or-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Delta variant](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR) is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the [UK and the US](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR). The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline. \nThis question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print).\nWill the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?\nThis question resolves positively if the peak daily number of reported deaths per million from COVID in the UK, using a 7-day rolling average, between July 1, 2021 and the end of the Delta Wave (as defined in the fine print) is greater than the same for the US.\nAll data for resolving this question shall be drawn from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-07-01..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR).\nFor the purposes of this bet, we will define the beginning of the \"Delta Wave\" to have begun on July 1 for each country.\nThe Delta Wave of each respective country shall be deemed to end at the earliest of the following:\n1--The Delta variant (including any lineages descended from the Delta variant) no longer comprises the majority of cases in the country. \n2--The 7-day rolling average of reported daily deaths per million stays below 50% of a previously observed peak during the Delta Wave for 30 consecutive days. \n3--The end of the year 2021. \nNote that the Delta Wave of each country may end at different times, and the relevant comparison is between the maximum number of deaths in each country's respective Wave, even if the Waves end at different times. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:02:20.487Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:36:27.585Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2118-how-far-will-the-uae-national-football-team-advance-in-the-fifa-arab-cup-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The FIFA Arab Cup is scheduled for 30 November 2021 to 18 December 2021 ([Global Sports Archive](https://globalsportsarchive.com/competition/soccer/fifa-arab-cup-2021-qatar/group-stage/53699/), [IloveQatar.net](https://www.iloveqatar.net/news/sports/fifa-announces-match-schedule-for-arab-cup-2021), [FIFA](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/arabcup)). If the Arab Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2021, the question would be voided.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Group Stage", "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Quarterfinals", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)", "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Finals (1st or 2nd Place)", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:13.707Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 56, "numforecasters": 35, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Group Stage, Quarterfinals, Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place), Finals (1st or 2nd Place)" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Jordan in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Jordan is Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi, who has been in power for 22.8 years. Jordan has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 76 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0060049", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9939951, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Jordan", "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi", "month_risk": "0.0004897", "annual_risk": "0.0060049", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "76", "leader_years": "22.83333", "country_code": "JOR", "country_abb": "JOR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:07:52.112Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 132, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:31:34.865Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:42:50.667Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in St Lucia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of St Lucia is Pierre, who has been in power for 0.4 years. St Lucia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0047986", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9952014, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "St Lucia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Pierre", "month_risk": "0.0003615", "annual_risk": "0.0047986", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "43", "leader_years": "0.4166667", "country_code": "LCA", "country_abb": "SLU" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:09:35.222Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 225, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nWill the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on 2031-06-01 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:49:23.467Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-04-22T23:20:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:20:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Turkey in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Turkey is Erdogan, who has been in power for 18.8 years. Turkey has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 3 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0080428", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9919572, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Turkey", "regime_type": "Party-Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Erdogan", "month_risk": "0.0002594", "annual_risk": "0.0080428", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "3", "leader_years": "18.75", "country_code": "TUR", "country_abb": "TUR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:54:40.630Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 171, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate ([Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/rubio-pushes-for-new-china-sanctions-amid-questions-over-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory-210036093.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/wuhan-lab-leak-sanctions-republicans-a2b98782-17f6-4d9c-b016-8da0885796e1.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/lab-leak-theory-s-revival-risks-upending-any-u-s-china-detente)). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/asia/us-hong-kong-china-sanctions-intl-hnk/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-sanctions/u-s-sanctions-two-more-chinese-officials-over-alleged-xinjiang-abuses-idUSKBN2BE289), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-beijing-south-china-sea-coronavirus-pandemic-china-01a64686a1b740b919af7b9d32d1c295)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:59.491Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 258, "numforecasters": 129, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:01:15.954Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 451, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7566/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Greg Abbott", "probability": 0.7431192660550459, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Beto O'Rourke", "probability": 0.09174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Allen West", "probability": 0.07339449541284403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew McConaughey", "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joaquin Castro", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julián Castro", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Don Huffines", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:08.565Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 42925 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Beto O'Rourke, Allen West, Matthew McConaughey, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Don Huffines" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Colombia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Colombia is Ivan Duque, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Colombia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 64 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.004793", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.995207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Colombia", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ivan Duque", "month_risk": "0.0004181", "annual_risk": "0.004793", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "64", "leader_years": "3.333333", "country_code": "COL", "country_abb": "COL" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7518/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Prime Minister Kishidia Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Xi\" and \"Kishida\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", "probability": 0.5045871559633027, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", "probability": 0.13761467889908255, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", "probability": 0.09174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", "probability": 0.09174311926605505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", "probability": 0.055045871559633024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kishida Fumio", "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:20.280Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 24652 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Kishida Fumio, Vladimir Putin, Justin Trudeau, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:03:48.689Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 245, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:12:01.156Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which cryptocurrency will have higher market cap on November 12th: XRP or Polkadot?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-cryptocurrency-will-have-higher-market-cap-on-november-12th-xrp-or-polkadot", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on the Market Cap comparison of two cryptocurrencies: XRP ($XRP) and Polkadot ($DOT) for the resolution date and time of November 12, 2021, at 8:00 PM ET. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be market cap ranking on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en). \n\nIf, according to the resolution source, $XRP has a greater market cap than $DOT on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “XRP”. If $DOT has a greater market cap than $XRP on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Polkadot”. If the estimated market cap for the resolution date is exactly the same for both cryptocurrencies, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. In the event of an ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, historical market caps of each coin will be used (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot), precisely the first recorded measurement after 8:00 PM.\n--------------\nMarket Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply\n\nRefers to the total market value of a cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.", "options": [ { "name": "XRP", "probability": "0.4889081905548684416114218009460842", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Polkadot", "probability": "0.5110918094451315583885781990539158", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "26", "liquidity": "5673.41", "tradevolume": "1487.48", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "XRP, Polkadot" }, { "title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8392/nuclear-attacks-and-global-cereal-yields/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nIf there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?\nThis question conditions on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations in a single conflict before 2050. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThe above condition is met, and\n2-- \nAverage global cereal yields over the 5 years following the end of the nuclear conflict that met that above condition are at least 5% lower than the average in the 5 years preceding the nuclear conflict.\nCrop yield data will be taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (or another credible organization).\nNote that crop yields are currently rising over time, so a 5% decline in the 5 years following the conflict compared to the 5 years before the conflict corresponds to a >5% decline compared to what would be expected under normal conditions - i.e., a >5% decline compared to what would occur if we extrapolated the current trend forwards.\nIf a relevant source gives a relevant estimate but in the form of a range, this question can resolve positively as long as the midpoint of the range is 5% or higher.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to discern whether the decline in cereal yields was caused by the nuclear detonations. \nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over territory owned by the US\".\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in yields but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:23:07.026Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"\nWill there be a US-Russia war by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if there's a war between the US and Russia by 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:19:13.629Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:58:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Democratic Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Democratic Republic of the Congo is Felix Tschisekedi, who has been in power for 2.9 years. Democratic Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 25 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.016232", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.983768, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Democratic Republic of the Congo", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Felix Tschisekedi", "month_risk": "0.0005901", "annual_risk": "0.016232", "risk_change_percent": "-0.21", "regime_years": "25", "leader_years": "2.916667", "country_code": "COD", "country_abb": "DRC" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Egypt in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Egypt is al-Sisi, who has been in power for 7.5 years. Egypt has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 3 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0120212", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9879788, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Egypt", "regime_type": "Military-Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "al-Sisi", "month_risk": "0.0004179", "annual_risk": "0.0120212", "risk_change_percent": "-0.01", "regime_years": "3", "leader_years": "7.5", "country_code": "EGY", "country_abb": "EGY" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Jordan", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A812", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "Seems pretty unlikely now per reporting that Jim Jordan does not want to run", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will a legally authorised referendum next take place on Scottish independence?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.166577732", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day of the referendum. This market will be settled as “Not before 2025” at 00:00 on 1st January 2025 if no referendum takes place before this time. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.", "options": [ { "name": "2021", "probability": 0.031417943990984354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", "probability": 0.09574992454395231, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", "probability": 0.16756236795191656, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", "probability": 0.18969324673801877, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 2025", "probability": 0.515576516775128, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.461Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 24232.89 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, Not before 2025" }, { "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-by-end-of-year", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will have a live token by December 31, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. If OpenSea has a live token by December 31, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.3061043309674565984245929932483441", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.6938956690325434015754070067516559", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "778", "liquidity": "11585.36", "tradevolume": "33583.07", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Rs win NH 2022 Senate", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1602", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "When a [massive solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society [would be catastrophic](http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9). Such storms are the subject of several other questions, particularly [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/519/will-evidence-emerge-for-solar-superflares/) regarding the frequency of such storms and [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/) regarding the construction of a satellite warning system.\nTwo Harvard University professors, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, recently [estimate the losses](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.05348.pdf) at $10 trillion, with a years-long recovery. In contrast to that cost, which is approximately [50 times the cost of NASA's initial efforts to send humans to the moon](https://christopherrcooper.com/blog/apollo-program-cost-return-investment/). Given estimates upward of 1%/year of such a flare, this sort of prospective loss arguably calls for significant spending at risk mitigation.\nBeyond warnings or damage minimization, the above paper proposes a somewhat more radical astronomical protection plan. A loop of copper wire with a diameter similar to the Earth's, they say, powered by one terawatt, could create a sufficient magnetic field so as to deflect the energy of a solar storm enough to protect the planet's technology. Placed at the [Lagrange point L1](https://www.space.com/30302-lagrange-points.html), the loop would cost about $100 billion to construct, Lingam and Loeb estimate. (As a fun side-beneit, they investigate how we might look for signs of such shields built by other civilizations out there.)\nWill anyone take this idea seriously? We'll ask the following:\nBy 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?\nThis question will resolve positively given a credible report that a grant, contract, budget line, or some similar allocation of funding equalling $100K or more has been made toward further study of, or designs for, an in-orbit Earth protecting magnetic deflection system. Effective cost of researcher or faculty time does not count, and the description of the allocation must somewhere directly reference Lingam and Loeb.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:30:02.954Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 250, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-10-17T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-12-31T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8032/iran-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.\nWill Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Iranian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:42:58.349Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2001-according-to-the-infinite-dial-2022-what-percentage-of-the-us-population-will-have-listened-to-a-podcast-in-the-last-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March ([Edison Research](https://www.edisonresearch.com/the-infinite-dial/)). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ \"listened to a podcast in the last month\" ([The Infinite Dial 2021](http://www.edisonresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/The-Infinite-Dial-2021.pdf), see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 25 May 2021: The question is concerned with the 12+ age group as reported by The Infinite Dial.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 42%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 42% and 44%, inclusive", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 44% but less than 48%", "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "48% or more", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:35.742Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 356, "numforecasters": 119, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 42%, Between 42% and 44%, inclusive, More than 44% but less than 48%, 48% or more" }, { "title": "Liberal Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180957876", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.", "options": [ { "name": "Scott Morrison", "probability": 0.83920678174989, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Frydenberg", "probability": 0.08182266122061427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Dutton", "probability": 0.07013370961766936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Hunt", "probability": 0.004909359673236856, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alan Tudge", "probability": 0.003927487738589485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.462Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 18086.47 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Peter Dutton, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge" }, { "title": "Rs win FL 2022 Senate", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1542", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183324545", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "We will settle this market on the date the Labour Party officially announce their new Permanent Party Leader after Keir Starmer. Temporary/interim leaders do not count. If a temporary/interim leader is appointed we will wait until the date of the announcement of the Permanent Leader before settling. This market will be void if the Party Leader dies while in office. If the Party Leader is unable to fulfil his/her role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Labour Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.", "options": [ { "name": "2021", "probability": 0.009587414893076693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", "probability": 0.14251562678897786, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", "probability": 0.24525945075312472, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", "probability": 0.6026375075648207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.462Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "volume": 4619.7 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2100-before-1-january-2022-will-kais-saied-cease-to-be-the-president-of-tunisia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisian-presidents-feud-with-party-elites-drove-him-seize-reins-power-2021-08-08/), [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tunisia-coup-president-kais-saied-no-turning-back), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/kais-saied-robocop-president-accused-launching-tunisia-coup), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/28/tunisia-reassures-turkey-eu-un-after-its-president-froze-parlia)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:49.186Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "numforecasters": 49, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Ivory Coast in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Ivory Coast is Ouattara, who has been in power for 10.7 years. Ivory Coast has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 11 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0105347", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9894653, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Ivory Coast", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Ouattara", "month_risk": "0.0007121", "annual_risk": "0.0105347", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "11", "leader_years": "10.66667", "country_code": "CIV", "country_abb": "CDI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:00:26.295Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 287, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $100 billion", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "$180 billion or more", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:46:08.321Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 481, "numforecasters": 58, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more" }, { "title": "Does P equal BPP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7962/p-versus-bpp/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_%28complexity%29). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.\nDoes P equal BPP?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:45:04.805Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:26:13.743Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 577, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8106/senolytics-for-pets-and-people/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps. Will this role apply to senolytics too?\nWill a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?\nSimilar to the linked question’s criterion, “an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells”. This function must be verified by a reputable third party, such as the FDA or major medical journals. An impact on lifespan need not be demonstrated for either the animal or the human therapy.\nIf a therapy for animals is sold before a human therapy is approved and sold, but the animal therapy is only verified by a third party afterwards, the question will still resolve positively. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:12:30.412Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-09-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Why was Seth Rich killed?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, [DNC staffer Seth Rich](http://www.popville.com/2016/07/early-morning-shooting-in-bloomingdale/) was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.\nWhile the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. [When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder](http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2124316-assange-belooft-nieuwe-onthullingen-over-clinton.html) these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were [interpreted](http://forward.com/news/national/347668/newt-gingrich-just-fanned-the-flames-of-seth-rich-conspiracy-theories/) by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong.", "probability": 0.8899299168589954, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee.", "probability": 0.09615579336720934, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee.", "probability": 0.01391428977379551, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee." }, { "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:10:15.411Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 570, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.07999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:40:52.693Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 413, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:53:03.039Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 278, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in St Vincent in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of St Vincent is Gonsalves, who has been in power for 20.8 years. St Vincent has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0049008", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9950992, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "St Vincent", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Gonsalves", "month_risk": "0.000386", "annual_risk": "0.0049008", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "42", "leader_years": "20.75", "country_code": "VCT", "country_abb": "SVG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.9801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:02:06.061Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 3378743 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican" }, { "title": "Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2151-before-1-october-2022-will-facebook-announce-that-mark-zuckerberg-will-cease-to-be-the-company-s-sole-chairman-or-ceo", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-misinformation-public-60-minutes-2021-10-03/), [Endgadget](https://www.engadget.com/mark-zuckerberg-denies-facebook-profit-over-safety-033717690.html), [Quartz](https://qz.com/2069983/mark-zuckerberg-rejects-facebook-whistleblowers-allegations/)). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 28 October 2021: We are aware of Facebook's name change to Meta. For the purposes of this question, consider this change in and of itself to be immaterial.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:01.981Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "numforecasters": 60, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:15:39.186Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 196, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z", "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for a bipartisan infrastructure bill by Nov. 19?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7572/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-a-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-by-Nov-19", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who vote in favor of passage of a qualifying infrastructure bill, subsequent to the launch of this market on November 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website house.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying infrastructure bill will be any bill that seeks to implement, in whole or in substantial part, the bipartisan infrastructure framework. A bill that passes a short-term surface funding transportation reauthorization shall not be considered a qualifying infrastructure bill.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"217 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"242 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 11/19/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "217 or fewer", "probability": 0.1111111111111111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "218 to 220", "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "221 to 223", "probability": 0.046296296296296294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "224 to 226", "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "227 to 229", "probability": 0.1574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "230 to 232", "probability": 0.2037037037037037, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "233 to 235", "probability": 0.12962962962962962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "236 to 238", "probability": 0.10185185185185185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "239 to 241", "probability": 0.06481481481481481, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "242 or more", "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:23.770Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 66147 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "217 or fewer, 218 to 220, 221 to 223, 224 to 226, 227 to 229, 230 to 232, 233 to 235, 236 to 238, 239 to 241, 242 or more" }, { "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:02:10.162Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 70, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2022, according to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2139-how-many-total-international-overnight-guests-will-visit-dubai-in-2022-according-to-the-dubai-department-of-tourism-and-commerce-marketing", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing ([Dubai Tourism](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/)). For example, 5.51 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai in 2020, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 ([Dubai Tourism - 2020 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-december-2020), [Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report](https://www.dubaitourism.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/annual-visitor-report-2019)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 10.0 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 22.5 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:26.453Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive, More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million, Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive, More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million, Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive, More than 22.5 million" }, { "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-%28male%29), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:37:04.089Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 284, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Niger in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Niger is Bazoum, who has been in power for 0.7 years. Niger has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 11 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0402544", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9597456, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Niger", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Bazoum", "month_risk": "0.0009239", "annual_risk": "0.0402544", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "11", "leader_years": "0.6666667", "country_code": "NER", "country_abb": "NIR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:42.018Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1523792 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:30:16.140Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1031, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2131-will-dubai-s-expo-2020-attract-25-million-visits", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 ([EXPO2020](https://www.expo2020dubai.com/), [Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-easts-first-expo-open-110725927.html), [The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2021/09/19/superstars-to-open-expo-2020-dubai-with-big-bang/)). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:49.676Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 113, "numforecasters": 60, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:28:31.720Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 453, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-15T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Ds win 51 or more Senate seats in 2022 Senate election", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1622", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by The Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. PLEASE NOTE Just after 20:00 (GMT) on 6 April 2020, mainstream media reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been moved to intensive care due to his ill health. Within an hour of this news coming to our attention, we suspended the following market on the Betfair Exchange. Given the exceptional circumstances, these markets will remain suspended and unavailable for trading until further notice. You will still be able to view details of your open bets in the ‘My Bets’ section of your account. Any unmatched bets on these markets (including keep bets) have been cancelled", "options": [ { "name": "Rishi Sunak", "probability": 0.2251488660089433, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", "probability": 0.15117138146314762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michael Gove", "probability": 0.1175777411380037, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", "probability": 0.07838516075866914, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ben Wallace", "probability": 0.037792845365786906, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sajid Javid", "probability": 0.05039046048771587, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", "probability": 0.05569471948642281, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Tugendhat", "probability": 0.04232798680968134, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", "probability": 0.027847359743211404, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Oliver Dowden", "probability": 0.03527332234140111, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", "probability": 0.022045826463375696, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kemi Badenoch", "probability": 0.024049992505500762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kwasi Kwarteng", "probability": 0.02116399340484067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Johnny Mercer", "probability": 0.008818330585350278, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Grant Shapps", "probability": 0.010581996702420335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", "probability": 0.010581996702420335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "James Cleverly", "probability": 0.011138943897284563, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Baker", "probability": 0.008818330585350278, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Harper", "probability": 0.008818330585350278, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Buckland", "probability": 0.004409165292675139, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Therese Coffey", "probability": 0.007054664468280223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Jenrick", "probability": 0.0036489643801449426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alok Sharma", "probability": 0.0024609294656791473, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne-Marie Trevelyan", "probability": 0.0036489643801449426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", "probability": 0.001322749587802542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Hancock", "probability": 0.0010688885558000339, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", "probability": 0.0027847359743211407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", "probability": 0.0025195230243857942, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suella Braverman", "probability": 0.001322749587802542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Geoffrey Cox", "probability": 0.0011378491077871328, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ranil Jayawardena", "probability": 0.001322749587802542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", "probability": 0.0010581996702420334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Eustice", "probability": 0.0034135473233613983, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Lewis", "probability": 0.0019239994004400607, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alister Jack", "probability": 0.0013394932534709285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", "probability": 0.0018244821900724713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Natalie Evans", "probability": 0.0013394932534709285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Milling", "probability": 0.0011889883935303747, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Will Quince", "probability": 0.0011022913231687847, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Simon Hart", "probability": 0.0011889883935303747, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nadhim Zahawi", "probability": 0.005290998351210168, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "volume": 78022.12 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Ben Wallace, Sajid Javid, Priti Patel, Tom Tugendhat, Dominic Raab, Oliver Dowden, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Kwasi Kwarteng, Johnny Mercer, Grant Shapps, Jacob Rees-Mogg, James Cleverly, Steve Baker, Mark Harper, Robert Buckland, Therese Coffey, Robert Jenrick, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Rory Stewart, Matt Hancock, Ruth Davidson, Amber Rudd, Suella Braverman, Geoffrey Cox, Ranil Jayawardena, Gavin Williamson, George Eustice, Brandon Lewis, Alister Jack, Andrea Leadsom, Natalie Evans, Amanda Milling, Will Quince, Simon Hart, Nadhim Zahawi" }, { "title": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2067-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-the-global-cryptocurrency-market-on-9-december-2021-according-to-coinmarketcap", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 9 December 2021 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 10 December 2021 ([CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $1.0 trillion", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive", "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $2.5 trillion", "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:49.137Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 423, "numforecasters": 84, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion, Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.5 trillion" }, { "title": "Who will be elected Buffalo, NY mayor in 2021?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7395/Who-will-be-elected-Buffalo,-NY-mayor-in-2021", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Buffalo, New York in the 2021 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Byron Brown", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "India Walton", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:10:21.322Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 545401 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Byron Brown, India Walton" }, { "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index rise more than 0.4% in October 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-008", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.4% in October 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nAny instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for October 2021, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 62, "yes_ask": 67, "spread": 5, "shares_volume": 2908 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will the French ambassador return to Australia?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": " ", "options": [ { "name": "Septembrer 2021", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "October 2021", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "November 2021", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "December 2021", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Septembrer 2021, October 2021, November 2021, December 2021, Maybe later" }, { "title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TEMP-0001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the global average temperature increases by more than 2.124℉ from 1880 to 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.7 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The mean Land-Ocean Temperature Index value reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (“GISS”). Specifically, the non-smoothed value of the Land-Ocean Temperature Index. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 3, "yes_ask": 7, "spread": 4, "shares_volume": 198592 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.\nWill Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:47:45.015Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-02-01T23:56:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.\nWill China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:48:36.469Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the SALT deduction cap be raised before December 20, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SALTX-003", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If a Bill becomes law after Issuance and before December 20, 2021 that increases the current limitation in Internal Revenue Code section 164(b) on the amount allowed as a deduction for state and local taxes in Internal Revenue Code section 164(a) for at least some class of taxpayer, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see the Product Filing for more details.\n\nAny instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: Bills that have become law, as captured by Congress.gov. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 46, "yes_ask": 51, "spread": 5, "shares_volume": 16020 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:58:29.759Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 516, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2040-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-june-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 3,800", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,100 but less than 4,400", "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,700 but less than 5,000", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5,000 or more", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:18.160Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 288, "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3,800, Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive, More than 4,100 but less than 4,400, Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive, More than 4,700 but less than 5,000, 5,000 or more" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Syria in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Syria is Bashar al-Assad, who has been in power for 21.5 years. Syria has a hybrid regime type which has lasted for 59 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.011449", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.988551, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Syria", "regime_type": "HYBRID", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Bashar al-Assad", "month_risk": "0.0003799", "annual_risk": "0.011449", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "59", "leader_years": "21.5", "country_code": "SYR", "country_abb": "SYR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:34:59.305Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 177, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.030000000000000027, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:42:19.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1570, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the SALT deduction cap be raised before November 15, 2021? ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SALTX-002", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If a Bill becomes law after Issuance and before November 15, 2021 that increases the current limitation in Internal Revenue Code section 164(b) on the amount allowed as a deduction for state and local taxes in Internal Revenue Code section 164(a) for at least some class of taxpayer, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see the Product Filing for more details. \n\nAny instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: Bills that have become law, as captured by Congress.gov. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 2, "yes_ask": 6, "spread": 4, "shares_volume": 43404 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/by-2025-tbc-tunnels-longer-than-trumps-wall/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?\nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:36:37.999Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 567, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Jamaica in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Jamaica is Holness, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Jamaica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0044174", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9955826, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Jamaica", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Holness", "month_risk": "0.0003808", "annual_risk": "0.0044174", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "59", "leader_years": "5.75", "country_code": "JAM", "country_abb": "JAM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:56:17.981Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 132, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": ">=49 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1672", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "On Friday, December 15, 2017, billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Barry Sherman and his wife Honey were found dead in their home in Toronto. [Sherman was one of the wealthiest Canadians](http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2017/12/15/canadian-pharmaceuticals-billionaire-and-wife-found-dead-in-toronto-mansion/#5734bf2b7fe2), and the Shermans gave considerable sums to [philanthropic causes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/barry-and-honey-sherman-canadian-pm-leads-mourning-of-billionaire-couple), as well as business ventures and [political campaigns](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). The Shermans were [found in their home, by an indoor pool, and police determined that they died of strangulation](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). Although police stated that the circumstances of the deaths \"[appear to be suspicious](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html),\" they also noted that there were no immediate suspects and initially investigated the case as [a potential homicide-suicide](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/16/murder-suicide-is-the-working-theory-for-police-investigating-death-of-billionaire-and-his-wife.html). Friends and family of the Shermans declared from the outset that this must have been a homicide, insisting that the Shermans wouldn't have taken their own (or one another's) lives. On Friday January 26, Toronto police [announced that they were treating the case as a double homicide](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/barry-and-honey-shermans-death-now-ruled-as-double-homicide/article37745567/), without revealing any additional evidence.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Barry and Honey were both murdered.", "probability": 0.7651433409264672, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry and Honey committed suicide together.", "probability": 0.13874736684819586, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself.", "probability": 0.0961092922253371, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.727Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Barry and Honey were both murdered., Barry and Honey committed suicide together., Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself." }, { "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2084-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-egypt-and-ethiopia-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute ([Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-ethiopia-military-solution-gerd-dispute), [Egypt Independent](https://egyptindependent.com/egypt-fm-slams-ethiopian-remarks-on-military-confrontation-over-gerd/), [Africa Report](https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:29.196Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 149, "numforecasters": 89, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:17:13.083Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 166, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Ron Desantis", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1792", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a US-China war by 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.\nWill there be a US-China war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[100 deaths from China-US conflict before 2050](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/)\n--- \n[Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:09:18.581Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-06-30T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2164-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-july-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-china-army-commanders-meet-defuse-tensions-80506130)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:26.198Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "numforecasters": 62, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How closely will the Virginia Governor election results match the polls?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7545/How-closely-will-the-Virginia-Governor-election-results-match-the-polls", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/02/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the degree to which the actual margin between the percentage of votes cast in the 2021 gubernatorial race in Virginia for Glenn Youngkin and the percentage of votes cast for Terry McAuliffe shall diverge from the projected margin displayed in the polling data summary number on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/ (the \"Settlement Source\") at 11:00 a.m. (ET) on November 2, 2021.\nContracts are to be understood to mean that the candidate named in the contract has overperformed the expectation of the margin in the Settlement Source by the amount indicated, not that the candidate has won the popular vote by that amount. For example, if the Settlement Source projects a margin of victory for Terry McAuliffe of 5.2% and Mr. McAuliffe should instead win the popular vote by 3.7%, the contract that resolves to Yes shall be \"Youngkin by 1% - 2%\".\nIn the event that there is no difference between the projection of the Settlement Source and the election results, the contract \"Youngkin, <1%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nThe percentage of the vote for each candidate shall be calculated based on all votes officially reported for ballot-listed candidates and write-ins.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nShould the Settlement Source be unavailable at 11:00 a.m. on November 2, 2021, PredictIt will await later publication of data for that date and time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/02/2021 10:20 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The FiveThirtyEight projected margin at 11:00 AM on November 2 is 0.9%, based on the difference between the numbers displayed on the lines of the graph for both candidates.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Youngkin by ≥ 4%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Youngkin by 3% - 4%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Youngkin by 2% - 3%", "probability": 0.018518518518518517, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Youngkin by 1% - 2%", "probability": 0.8888888888888888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Youngkin, < 1%", "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "McAuliffe, < 1%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "McAuliffe by 1% - 2%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "McAuliffe by 2% - 3%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "McAuliffe by 3% - 4%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "McAuliffe ≥ 4%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:14.973Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 1137386 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Youngkin by ≥ 4%, Youngkin by 3% - 4%, Youngkin by 2% - 3%, Youngkin by 1% - 2%, Youngkin, < 1%, McAuliffe, < 1%, McAuliffe by 1% - 2%, McAuliffe by 2% - 3%, McAuliffe by 3% - 4%, McAuliffe ≥ 4%" }, { "title": "Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7211/us-conclude-covid-lab-leak-by-june-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Previously, we had [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/) about the COVID-19 lab leak theory, which many considered to have improper resolution criteria. This question is a less ambiguous version, slated to resolve on June 1st, 2022.\nWill any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that any official body of the US federal government concludes, via an official report published or leaked to the public, that the origin of the COVID-19 coronavirus involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province, before June 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In case at least two moderators declare that there exists considerable ambiguity about whether the US government indeed concluded that COVID-19 originated in a lab, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor the purpose of this question, the federal government is said to conclude a fact if they (1) take it as a given in one of their official reports (2) state that it is \"likely\", \"probable\", \"almost certain\", or some other close synonym of those terms (3) make some other determination as to the likelihood of the the fact, indicating that they believe there is a greater than 50% chance that the fact is true. \nIn case there is a dispute over whether a word used by the government counts as a close synonym of \"probable\", a vote will be taken in the comment section below on the question (and which must be clarified, is to be determined purely on the basis of whether the word counts as a close synonym, NOT whether the question should resolve positively or negatively).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:25:26.833Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 605, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-02-25T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Armenia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Armenia is Pashinyan, who has been in power for 3.6 years. Armenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 4 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0081691", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9918309, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Armenia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Pashinyan", "month_risk": "0.0005651", "annual_risk": "0.0081691", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "4", "leader_years": "3.583333", "country_code": "ARM", "country_abb": "ARM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Whether a launched stablecoin is backed by a single currency or multiple currencies is immaterial.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:06.238Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 452, "numforecasters": 99, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Estonia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Estonia is Kaja Kallas, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Estonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0023785", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9976215, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Estonia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Kaja Kallas", "month_risk": "0.0002094", "annual_risk": "0.0023785", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "30", "leader_years": "0.9166667", "country_code": "EST", "country_abb": "EST" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Romania in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Romania is Iohannis, who has been in power for 7.0 years. Romania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0035908", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9964092, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Romania", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Iohannis", "month_risk": "0.0003163", "annual_risk": "0.0035908", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "30", "leader_years": "7", "country_code": "ROU", "country_abb": "ROM" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Uruguay in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Uruguay is Luis Pou, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Uruguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 37 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0043207", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9956793, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Uruguay", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Luis Pou", "month_risk": "0.0003467", "annual_risk": "0.0043207", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "37", "leader_years": "1.75", "country_code": "URY", "country_abb": "URU" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\nJust wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if both men and women play as part of one tour with one tour organiser. It will still resolve positive if not all tournaments are mixed (ie if some currently all-female or all-male tournaments are part of the tour, that doesn't trigger negative resolution as long as the overarching tour organiser is one body)\nThis question resolves negatively if men and women play as part of two separate tours on the basis of gender.\nIn the event that it is unclear (eg the tennis tour fractures into multiple tours (WTA, ATP, mixed tour)) we will ask [Jeff Sackmann's](http://www.tennisabstract.com/) opinion and resolve on the basis of that. (In the event he says it's unclear / is uncontactable / unwilling to decided it resolves ambiguous)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:35:46.255Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:26:18.904Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:22:11.060Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 236, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.8653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:57.598Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 49641 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.\nWill someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](http://rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:57:58.307Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "the US dollar will still be an internationally traded currency on 18 Mar 2032", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1352", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "Actually much more than 99%", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-03-18T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "legislation will be passed this year that makes the minimum wage by the end of 2024 to >$10, <=$11", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1962", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-27T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Chile in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Chile is Sebastian Pinera, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Chile has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0074274", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9925726, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Chile", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Sebastian Pinera", "month_risk": "0.0006476", "annual_risk": "0.0074274", "risk_change_percent": "0.01", "regime_years": "32", "leader_years": "3.75", "country_code": "CHL", "country_abb": "CHL" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:54:30.206Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Joe Manchin switches parties prior to his next election", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1722", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-08T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:49:02.780Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Sri Lanka in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Sri Lanka is G. Rajapakse, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Sri Lanka has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0055167", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9944833, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Sri Lanka", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "G. Rajapakse", "month_risk": "0.0003379", "annual_risk": "0.0055167", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "27", "leader_years": "2.083333", "country_code": "LKA", "country_abb": "SRI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will water levels on Lake Mead be less than 1066.5 feet at the end of November 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MEAD-002", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the end-of-month water elevation on Lake Mead is less than 1066.5 feet for November 2021, then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, it resolves to No.. The resolution source is: End-of-month water elevation in feet for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 81, "yes_ask": 84, "spread": 3, "shares_volume": 5900 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:29:33.988Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 223, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Mali in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Mali is Assimi Goita, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Mali has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 1 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.1240819", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8759181, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Mali", "regime_type": "Military Provisional", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Assimi Goita", "month_risk": "0.0103646", "annual_risk": "0.1240819", "risk_change_percent": "-0.97", "regime_years": "1", "leader_years": "0.5833333", "country_code": "MLI", "country_abb": "MLI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Labor Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178911257", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.", "options": [ { "name": "Anthony Albanese", "probability": 0.684526669553965, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tanya Plibersek", "probability": 0.08670671147683556, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Chalmers", "probability": 0.12193131301430002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Marles", "probability": 0.041071600173237896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Bowen", "probability": 0.04335335573841778, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Clare", "probability": 0.010404805377220269, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joel Fitzgibbon", "probability": 0.012005544666023387, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.462Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "volume": 5729.74 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Jim Chalmers, Richard Marles, Chris Bowen, Jason Clare, Joel Fitzgibbon" }, { "title": "Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics ](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html)to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.", "probability": 0.7469908609359496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.", "probability": 0.21943257968810703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.", "probability": 0.03357655937594347, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.729Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career." }, { "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:00:42.018Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 275, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a reconciliation bill greater than $2.5 trillion become law before November 14?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECSZ-002", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If Congress.gov contains documentation of a Bill that “became law” after the date of Issuance and before November 14, 2021 and contains reconciliation instructions; and that Bill's most recent estimated ten-year spending outlays according to the CBO are greater than $2.5 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see RECSZ in the Rulebook for such details.\n\nSuch Bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to...\". The resolution source is: Bills that have become law, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker, as well as the Congressional Budget Office's Bill cost estimates. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 0, "yes_ask": 1, "spread": 1, "shares_volume": 10030 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:49:38.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2157-before-1-july-2022-will-the-cptpp-commission-decide-to-commence-the-accession-process-for-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-and-or-taiwan", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Taiwan, under the name of \"The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu,\" and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/taiwan-applies-to-join-pacific-trade-deal-just-days-after-china), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/23/china-moves-to-join-the-cptpp-but-dont-expect-a-fast-pass/), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/will-china-actually-join-the-cptpp/)). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom ([Institute for Government](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-cptpp), [Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade](https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership), [Global Affairs Canada](https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/decision_cptpp_uk_request-decision_ptpgp_ru.aspx?lang=eng)). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, but only for the PRC", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, but only for Taiwan", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, for both", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:48.729Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "numforecasters": 35, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, but only for the PRC, Yes, but only for Taiwan, Yes, for both, No" }, { "title": "Will Squid Game be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on November 7?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-squid-game-be-the-1-netflix-show-worldwide-on-november-7", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether the Netflix show, Squid Game, will hold the number one spot on Netflix’s daily Top Shows worldwide ranking on November 7th 2021, 8:00 pm ET. \n\nThe resolution source will be FlixPatrol, which ranks the most-watched movies and TV shows across streaming platforms. \n\nThe resolution source will be checked at 8:00 pm ET on November 7th, under \"Netflix Top 10 TV Shows.\" (https://flixpatrol.com/top10/netflix/)\n\nIf \"Squid Game\" holds #1, the market will resolve to \"Yes,\" otherwise the market will resolve to \"No.\" \n\nIf the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours until the data is available, and the most recent data will be used to resolve the market. After November 14th, if the data is still unavailable, this market resolves 50/50.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.9189561819463617042001750923862271", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.08104381805363829579982490761377289", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "68", "liquidity": "1380.12", "tradevolume": "10270.26", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:10:06.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-04T19:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.6274509803921569, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.37254901960784315, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:09:35.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 10471 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\nWill at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:21:49.391Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 163, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:26:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:26:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Rahm Emanuel be confirmed as ambassador to Japan by Dec. 31?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7474/Will-Rahm-Emanuel-be-confirmed-as-ambassador-to-Japan-by-Dec-31", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rahm Emanuel is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Ambassador to Japan by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:11:23.441Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 45033 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:19:45.097Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1635, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which right-wing candidate will be on the ballot in the second round of the French presidential election in 2022?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "The answers \"Several of them\" and \"None of them\" only refer to the three candidates listed, not to the whole set of potential right-wing candidates. ", "options": [ { "name": "Michel Barnier (only)", "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Bertrand (only)", "probability": 0.04950495049504951, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse (only)", "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Several of them", "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "None of them", "probability": 0.8019801980198019, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:25.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Michel Barnier (only), Xavier Bertrand (only), Valérie Pécresse (only), Several of them, None of them" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Tanzania in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Tanzania is Samia Suluhu Hassan, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Tanzania has a party regime type which has lasted for 58 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0065871", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9934129, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Tanzania", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Samia Suluhu Hassan", "month_risk": "0.0003133", "annual_risk": "0.0065871", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "58", "leader_years": "0.75", "country_code": "TZA", "country_abb": "TAZ" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will San Francisco close indoor dining by January 1, 2022?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SFDINE-001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the San Francisco government website indicates, or the Mayor's office issues an unretracted press release indicating, that all indoor dining is shut down in San Francisco by 6:00 PM ET on January 1, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see SFDINE in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: Business regulations reported by the Government of the City and County of San Francisco and press releases issued by the Office of the Mayor of the City and County of San Francisco. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 1, "yes_ask": 5, "spread": 4, "shares_volume": 3488 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?\n(XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:37:35.613Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:50:41.057Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 115, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or more", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:47:24.458Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 346, "numforecasters": 71, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, { "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:07:31.586Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 134, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:16:18.250Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 132, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020-will-the-us-civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-reach-or-exceed-63-0-for-any-month-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering ([Pew Research](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-market-inches-back-from-the-covid-19-shock-but-recovery-is-far-from-complete/), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/archive-e81b08cff90641cb99f50a14588ffe2e), [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stimulus-coronavirus-fears-labor-market-shortage)). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% ([BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01082021.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:29.779Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 282, "numforecasters": 92, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:10.705Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:37:41.722Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 211, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:17:08.491Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 202, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:26:34.830Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:52:46.127Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 259, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:10:43.442Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Armin Laschet be the next chancellor of Germany?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-armin-laschet-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Armin Laschet, leader of the CDU party, will win an upcoming German chancellor’s election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Armin Laschet is the next elected chancellor, and “No” otherwise. The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on September 26, 2021, after which either a chancellor may be elected and appointed, or a new federal election will be held and the process will repeat. This market will resolve only when there is a successful chancellor’s election, meaning once a chancellor has been both elected by the Bundestag and appointed by the president. For instance, if the first round of elections is inconclusive and Merkel remains chancellor in the meantime, and the second round is won by Laschet, this market will resolve as \"Yes.\" This market will resolve according to the German government’s website (https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/chancellor) and the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service (protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.02461202020902220277163673793596437", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9753879797909777972283632620640356", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "1012", "liquidity": "3962.57", "tradevolume": "82506.92", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350). \nWill there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations before 2050. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:23:22.466Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-01-01T21:45:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.\nWill Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:06:18.074Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:04:54.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 253, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index rise more than 0.3% in October 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-006", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.3% in October 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nAny instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for October 2021, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 83, "yes_ask": 88, "spread": 5, "shares_volume": 6618 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Morgan Harper", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joyce Beatty", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nan Whaley", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emilia Sykes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:10.722Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 160399 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Morgan Harper, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes" }, { "title": "Will Saule Omarova be confirmed as Comptroller of the Currency before December 20, 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OMAROVA-001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If Saule Omarova has been successfully confirmed by the Senate to the position of Comptroller of the Currency before December 20, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else resolves to No. Please see OMAROVA in the Rulebook for more details. . The resolution source is: The set of nominations that have been confirmed by the Senate according to Congress.gov. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 12, "yes_ask": 15, "spread": 3, "shares_volume": 8096 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6799999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:45:49.611Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 148, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:20:42.292Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in China in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of China is Xi Jinping, who has been in power for 9.1 years. China has a party regime type which has lasted for 73 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0011269", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9988731, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "China", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Xi Jinping", "month_risk": "0.0000819", "annual_risk": "0.0011269", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "73", "leader_years": "9.083333", "country_code": "CHN", "country_abb": "CHN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be the governor of California on Dec. 31?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7214/Who-will-be-the-governor-of-California-on-Dec-31", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, on the End Date listed below, the individual who holds the office of Governor of the State of California.\nShould, on the End Date, the Lieutenant Governor act as Governor during the impeachment, absence from the State, or other temporary disability of the Governor, the contract identifying the Governor shall nonetheless resolve to Yes. Should, on the End Date, the Lieutenant Governor act as Governor due to the failure of a Governor-elect to take office, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 8:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Gavin Newsom", "probability": 0.9166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Caitlyn Jenner", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Cox", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kevin Faulconer", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Ose", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Grenell", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eleni Kounalakis", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kevin Paffrath", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kevin Kiley", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Elder", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:57.954Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 6323339 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Gavin Newsom, Caitlyn Jenner, John Cox, Kevin Faulconer, Doug Ose, Richard Grenell, Eleni Kounalakis, Kevin Paffrath, Kevin Kiley, Larry Elder" }, { "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:08:36.720Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 912, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Kamala Harris", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1832", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "Much lower than conventional wisdom", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:06:07.831Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:56:05.334Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 296, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", "probability": 0.6132075471698113, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", "probability": 0.29245283018867924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Arkoosh", "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chrissy Houlahan", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharif Street", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:04:13.890Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 456117 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Valerie Arkoosh, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney, Chrissy Houlahan, Sharif Street" }, { "title": "How many VA House seats will Democrats win in the 2021 election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7349/How-many-VA-House-seats-will-Democrats-win-in-the-2021-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number or range of seats won by candidates who have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic Party in the 2021 general election for the Virginia House of Delegates. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "43 or fewer", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or 45", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "46 or 47", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "48 or 49", "probability": 0.9150943396226414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or more", "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:09:02.874Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 299675 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "43 or fewer, 44 or 45, 46 or 47, 48 or 49, 50 or 51, 52 or 53, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or more" }, { "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index rise more than 0.3% in November 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPI-007", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.3% in November 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nAny instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for November 2021, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.20999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 75, "yes_ask": 80, "spread": 5, "shares_volume": 4070 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\nDespite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".\nBy 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?\nThis question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.\nAnswers to the Gallup poll which refer to space or space governance include:\n---Any answer which refers to an aerospace organization, program or object, such as “NASA” or “Sputnik”. \n---Any answer which directly refers to something related to space governance. This does not include indirect references, such as “foreign policy” (even if space governance is at the time an important part of foreign policy). This is to be decided by Metaculus moderators. \nIf the Gallup poll is discontinued the question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:08:13.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-07-31T14:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "legislation will be passed this year that makes the minimum wage by the end of 2024 to >$7.25, <=$10", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1952", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-27T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm). According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2022](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022.\nWill a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a \"nuclear sharing\" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:43:45.267Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2003-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-authorized-for-emergency-use-or-approved-by-the-us-fda-as-of-31-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues ([FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA - Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 14 May 2021: The authorization/approval of an EUA amendment for a modified vaccine would not count (e.g., https://www.fda.gov/media/142749/download, see Appendix 2).\nNOTE 27 July 2021: The approval of an already approved vaccine for administration as a booster would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "2 or fewer", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or more", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:40.399Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 464, "numforecasters": 107, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more" }, { "title": "What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2076-what-will-be-the-annual-change-in-the-uk-s-consumer-prices-index-cpi-for-november-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/uk-inflation-jumps-to-2point5percent-in-june.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57826826)). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the \"CPI ANNUAL RATE\" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.7%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive", "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4.1% or more", "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:39.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 247, "numforecasters": 63, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive, More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%, Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive, More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%, 4.1% or more" }, { "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:07:11.026Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 375, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be on Nov. 5?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7570/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Nov-5", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below. The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled \"Polling Data\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html (\"the Settlement Source\"), at the row labeled as as \"RCP Average.\" \nAny number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled \"RCP Average\" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 11/05/2021 11:00 AM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "41.4% or lower", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41.5% to 41.7%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41.8% to 42.0%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.1% to 42.3%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.4% to 42.6%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.7% to 42.9%", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.0% to 43.2%", "probability": 0.05555555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.3% to 43.5%", "probability": 0.8148148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.6% or higher", "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:17.980Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 255813 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "41.4% or lower, 41.5% to 41.7%, 41.8% to 42.0%, 42.1% to 42.3%, 42.4% to 42.6%, 42.7% to 42.9%, 43.0% to 43.2%, 43.3% to 43.5%, 43.6% or higher" }, { "title": "In 2021, will Ivan Duque lose power in Colombia?", "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT", "platform": "Hypermind", "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Duque, president of Colombia, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Duque has lost power before the end of the year (local time). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-22T09:09:33.078Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2082-what-will-chinese-ride-hailing-company-didi-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Soon after its IPO in the US, DiDi Global Inc. faced a barrage of regulatory scrutiny from Chinese authorities ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/02/didi-shares-fall-after-china-announces-cybersecurity-review.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/12/is-there-any-hope-left-for-didi-globals-ipo/)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DIDI)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive", "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion", "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 billion", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:20.487Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 266, "numforecasters": 44, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive, More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion, Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive, More than $70 billion, DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022" }, { "title": "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive", "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:46:58.204Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 939, "numforecasters": 143, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" }, { "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:47:07.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8141/individual-city-hit-3-times-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Some people (e.g., [Rodriguez, 2019a](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FfxrwBdBDCg9YTh69/how-many-people-would-be-killed-as-a-direct-result-of-a-us#The_number_of_deaths_caused_by_nuclear_detonations_in_civilian_targets), [2019b](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_nuclear_detonations)) have argued that: \n--- \nIt's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)\n--- \nIf that happens, it could substantially increase the immediate fatalities and nuclear winter effects from nuclear conflict (since second, third, etc. detonations on cities like New York would have much larger effects than first detonations on much smaller targets)\nThe likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities could also be seen as an imperfect proxy for the expected total scale of a nuclear exchange, since such multiple detonations are probably more likely if large-scale [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting occurs.\nAltogether, a higher likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities would push in favor of (1) working to reduce nuclear risk and (2) doing so by reducing the chance of large-scale conflicts or countervalue targeting.\nWill an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?\nThe question conditions on there being at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a city after this question opens and before 2024. That is, it resolves ambiguously if that condition is not met.\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, for at least one individual city anywhere in the world, 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of that city. For example, it would resolve positively if there are 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations on New York, and/or 3 or more on Moscow, and/or 3 or more on Beijing. \nThe question resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over any city, but there are not 3 or more such detonations on or over any single city, even if there are 3 or more such detonations spread out across multiple cities. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, it does not matter whether a strike was intended to kill civilians or to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a city.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:21:59.733Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "In January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7832/3-us-code--15-objections-to-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).\nIf there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.\nIn January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?\nThis question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:56:49.125Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-05T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.\nWill Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Turkish government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:27:57.982Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:56:02.461Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7003/muon-magnetics-indicative-of-new-physics/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On April 7, 2021 researchers at the [Muon g-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon_g-2) experiment at Fermilab [published](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.141801) results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to [speculation](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/long-awaited-muon-measurement-boosts-evidence-for-new-physics/) that it could be a signal of new physics.\nAt 4.2σ, the results fall short of the threshold for a discovery (5σ), but are still unlikely enough to generate excitement. However, previous studies with high sigmas have been overturned based on systematic biases or incorrect background calculations.\nAre Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?\nThe question will resolve negatively if by 2023-04-01 the concensus in the scientific literature is that the discrepancy in muon magnetic moment is <4σ compared to the Standard Model. Results could come in the form of new data, new background computations within the Standard Model, demonstration of systematic bias in the g-2 methodology, etc.\nThe question will resolve positively if the concensus is ≥4σ from the standard model predition. This would imply new particles, new interactions, or other new physics (although compelling theory explaining the magnetic moment is not required for a positive resolution).\nIf no consensus has emerged by 2023-04-01 then the resolution is ambiguous.\nedit 2021-05-01: rephrased resolution criteria, expanded on 'new physics'\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:24:55.783Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will cease to be face-to-face only?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2130-before-1-february-2022-will-the-knowledge-and-human-development-authority-khda-announce-that-all-teaching-and-learning-at-dubai-private-schools-will-cease-to-be-face-to-face-only", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "In August 2021, KHDA announced that “[f]rom October 3rd 2021, all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will be face-to-face only. After this date, students who wish to continue with distance learning must provide a medical certificate issued by Dubai Health Authority. Class groups or grade/year levels may temporarily switch to distance learning if positive cases of Covid-19 are detected” ([KHDA](https://www.khda.gov.ae/en/safetyatschools)). An announcement about a temporary change would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:51.761Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 56, "numforecasters": 36, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the United Arab Emirates' ranking in the Global Food Security Index for 2022, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2142-what-will-be-the-united-arab-emirates-ranking-in-the-global-food-security-index-for-2022-according-to-the-economist-intelligence-unit", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The UAE's ranking fell from 21st in 2019 to 42nd in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic ([u.ae](https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/food-security/global-food-security-index), [Food Security Index - UAE](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country/Details#United%20Arab%20Emirates)). The outcome will be determined using data for 2022 as provided by the Global Food Security Index, expected to be released in 2023 ([Food Security Index](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 55th", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 55th and 41st", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 40th and 26th", "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 25th", "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:20.235Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 55th, Between 55th and 41st, Between 40th and 26th, Higher than 25th" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Eritrea in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Eritrea is Afeworki, who has been in power for 28.6 years. Eritrea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 29 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0143098", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9856902, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Eritrea", "regime_type": "Party-Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Afeworki", "month_risk": "0.001001", "annual_risk": "0.0143098", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "29", "leader_years": "28.58333", "country_code": "ERI", "country_abb": "ERI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": ">=51 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1692", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2074-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-12-november-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Brazil is struggling to bring COVID-19 under control amidst continued domestic political acrimony over the response ([The Week](https://theweek.com/jair-bolsonaro/1002291/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-rocked-by-scandal-over-alleged-covid-19-vaccine), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57733540)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 12 November 2021 will be assessed on 18 November 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 22 million", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 28 million", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:45.423Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 503, "numforecasters": 78, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 22 million, Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive, More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million, Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive, More than 28 million" }, { "title": "Trump is on the ballot for President in the Republican primary in 2023/2024 ", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A682", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Iran in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Iran is Raisi, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Iran has a party regime type which has lasted for 43 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0046657", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9953343, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Iran", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Raisi", "month_risk": "0.000179", "annual_risk": "0.0046657", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "43", "leader_years": "0.3333333", "country_code": "IRN", "country_abb": "IRN" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_%28company%29) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:52:56.803Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-fewer-than-1-3-million-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/united-airlines-demand-recovers-despite-delta-variant.html)). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 October 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2022", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:31.139Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 187, "numforecasters": 70, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021, Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022" }, { "title": "Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The laws surrounding cryptocurrencies are likely to have many parts and be complicated. This question is targeted toward the legality of simple possession of Bitcoin specifically.\nWill any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?\nWill anyone in the United States be convicted, in any U.S. court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1st 2060?\n--- \nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin. If they bought drugs on the darkweb using Bitcoin and were just charged for buying drugs, that would be irrelevant to this question.\n--- \nSimilarly, if someone doesn't report their Bitcoin capital gains to the IRS and then is convicted for income tax evasion, that does not count.\n--- \nThis question only resolves positively if the coins themselves are made illegal. For example, convictions for owning stolen Bitcoin or Bitcoin used in criminal transactions do not count towards positive resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:57:08.108Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2056-07-19T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", "description": "The future of COVID-19 is an open question, as \"next waves\" remain possible. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO in its global data file (covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv). In the downloaded CSV file, sum the \"New_cases\" column data by date. Seven-day medians will be calculated from those data. The question will resolve using the data available no later than 1 April 2022, though the question would close early if requisite data indicate a seven-day median greater than the highest bin as of at least 14 calendar days after the date of all pertinent data. At question launch, the WHO data indicated that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world was 778,827 in January 2021 (goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO_Case_and_Death_Data_as_of_31_March_2021.xlsx).", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 100,000", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 400,000", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 400,000 and 800,000, inclusive", "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 800,000", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-03T12:00:04.279Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, "extra": { "superforecastercommentary": "
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 400,000, Between 400,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000" }, { "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:21:39.603Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\nFlight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.\n![image] (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg/440px-MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg.png)\n", "options": [ { "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.", "probability": 0.9303855144518759, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.", "probability": 0.040451544106603274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.", "probability": 0.021068512555522584, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.", "probability": 0.004577391856729619, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).", "probability": 0.00028091350074030126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.", "probability": 0.003236123528528264, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.727Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide., The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide., Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours., Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane., Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down)., The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane." }, { "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.06999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:18:31.149Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 464, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in South Korea in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of South Korea is Moon Jae-in, who has been in power for 4.6 years. South Korea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 34 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0021282", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9978718, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "South Korea", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Moon Jae-in", "month_risk": "0.0001757", "annual_risk": "0.0021282", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "34", "leader_years": "4.583333", "country_code": "KOR", "country_abb": "ROK" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:49:07.701Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 113, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:49:54.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 176, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:49:38.758Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Charlie Baker", "probability": 0.4695652173913043, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maura Healey", "probability": 0.31304347826086953, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz", "probability": 0.06956521739130433, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Geoff Diehl", "probability": 0.0608695652173913, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karyn Polito", "probability": 0.03478260869565217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Kennedy III", "probability": 0.017391304347826084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Downing", "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ayanna Pressley", "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Danielle Allen", "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Gonzalez", "probability": 0.008695652173913042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:07:39.428Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 117885 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Baker, Maura Healey, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Geoff Diehl, Karyn Polito, Joe Kennedy III, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Danielle Allen, Jay Gonzalez" }, { "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol. \nWill Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?\nIf there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:06:32.550Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Bulgaria in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Bulgaria is Stefan Yanev, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Bulgaria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0085188", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9914812, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.750Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Bulgaria", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Stefan Yanev", "month_risk": "0.0020113", "annual_risk": "0.0085188", "risk_change_percent": "0.15", "regime_years": "31", "leader_years": "0.5833333", "country_code": "BGR", "country_abb": "BUL" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:10:27.251Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will Donald Trump's 538 favorability rating be for Nov. 9?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7574/What-will-Donald-Trump's-538-favorability-rating-be-for-Nov-9", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify Donald Trump's FiveThirtyEight favorability rating for November 9 at the End Date listed below. The favorability rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, calculated using \"All Polls\", as displayed on the graph for November 9 at the End Date listed below. \nAny number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than November 9 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 11/10/2021 10:00 AM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "41.0% or lower", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41.1% to 41.3%", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41.4% to 41.6%", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41.7% to 41.9%", "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.0% to 42.2%", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.3% to 42.5%", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.6% to 42.8%", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42.9% to 43.1%", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43.2% or higher", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:32.343Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 13537 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "41.0% or lower, 41.1% to 41.3%, 41.4% to 41.6%, 41.7% to 41.9%, 42.0% to 42.2%, 42.3% to 42.5%, 42.6% to 42.8%, 42.9% to 43.1%, 43.2% or higher" }, { "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:30:31.890Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 440, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.32999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:03:43.423Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 177, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20%28NHANES%29%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:37:45.846Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:40:45.347Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:32:18.632Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7528/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Massachusetts. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Charlie Baker", "probability": 0.5784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Geoff Diehl", "probability": 0.33333333333333337, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karyn Polito", "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Lelling", "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Patrick O'Connor", "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:42.297Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 9260 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Baker, Geoff Diehl, Karyn Polito, Andrew Lelling, Patrick O'Connor" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:09:44.834Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 23037 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:51:53.967Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 286, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:47:55.442Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 283, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will SCOTUS strike down Mississippi ban on pre-viability abortions in Dobbs?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7504/Will-SCOTUS-strike-down-Mississippi-ban-on-pre-viability-abortions-in-Dobbs", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if the Supreme Court, in a ruling that decides the outcome of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, issues an opinion subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, with the effect of striking down Mississippi's ban on pre-viability abortions.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:11:47.471Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 33621 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:04:45.823Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Oman in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Oman is Haitham ibn Tariq, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Oman has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 280 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.00368", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99632, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Oman", "regime_type": "Monarchy", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Haitham ibn Tariq", "month_risk": "0.0003013", "annual_risk": "0.00368", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "280", "leader_years": "1.916667", "country_code": "OMN", "country_abb": "OMA" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "US defaults by EOY", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2342", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-07T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?\nThis resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.\nDonations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.\nIf Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted. \nIf he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.\nIf some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:15:31.740Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Someone other D is 2024 POTUS", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2432", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:24:24.619Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 188, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign by Mar. 1?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7559/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-by-Mar-1", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:13:50.618Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 11564 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).\nWill Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?\nA \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n---resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date), \n---lost a confidence vote, \n---lost an election, \n---formally left office, \n---died, \n---been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. \nResolution will be according to reliable published reports.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:20:47.105Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-13T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "Although Osama Bin Laden became the world's[ most wanted man](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/02osama-bin-laden-obituary.html) after September 11, 2001, with a[ 25 million dollar bounty](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/osama-bin-ladens-death-25-million-reward-remain-secret/story?id=13526284) on his head, it took almost a decade before he was finally located and killed. On May 2, 2011, two dozen US Navy Seals landed outside of a large compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, shooting and killing Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden's body was later dropped in the sea.\nThe raid on the compound, the killing of Bin Laden, and the revelation that he had apparently been hiding out in Pakistan for years, caught the world by surprise. A number of questions were raised, including whether the government of Pakistan, or its military intelligence, had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in the country, and whether the US had informed Pakistan of the impending raid.\nNote: this analysis assumes that the US account of the capture is accurate. Some have doubted the veracity and accuracy of this account, a controversy that may be analyzed by Rootclaim in the future.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.", "probability": 0.8191041703878119, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.", "probability": 0.09563276276017901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. ", "probability": 0.08526306685200913, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.729Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. " }, { "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_%28satellite%29)\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:40:39.695Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 154, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will more than 1.8 million people be screened by the TSA on average this week?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TSAW-033", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 1.8 million for the week ending November 07, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nPlease see TSAW in the Rulebook for details and the legally binding terms and conditions. Any instructions on how to access the Underlying are provided for convenience only and are not part of the binding Terms and Conditions of the Contract. They may be clarified at any time.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.43999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 54, "yes_ask": 60, "spread": 6, "shares_volume": 22032 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:33:04.995Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 242, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:39:47.866Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 131, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will more ships be anchored at the Port of Los Angeles this week than last week? ", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/ANCHOR-005", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If the number of container vessels currently anchored at the Port of Los Angeles is greater than 38 for the week ending November 05, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see ANCHOR in the Rulebook for more details. \n\nLast week, the average number of container vessels currently anchored at the Port of Los Angeles was 38.2. . The resolution source is: The weekly average number of container vessels at anchor at the Port of Los Angeles from Monday to Friday. (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "yes_bid": 0, "yes_ask": 1, "spread": 1, "shares_volume": 8986 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:54:41.567Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:37:57.317Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 208, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in UK in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of UK is Johnson, who has been in power for 2.4 years. UK has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 110 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0019177", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9980823, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "UK", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Johnson", "month_risk": "0.0001658", "annual_risk": "0.0019177", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "110", "leader_years": "2.416667", "country_code": "GBR", "country_abb": "UKG" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:39:53.059Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 666, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the UK be greater than 44,000 on November 8?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-average-of-covid-19-new-cases-count-in-the-uk-be-greater-than-44000-on-november-8", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on the 7-day COVID-19 case average (people who have had at least one positive COVID-19 test result) in the United Kingdom, by date reported, for the day of November 8, 2021. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\", if the 7-Day average for daily COVID-19 cases count in United Kingdom is greater than 44,000 for the day of November 8, and \"No\" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases. \n\nThe 7-day moving average for the day of November 8 will be checked at 8:00 PM ET on November 12, 2021. If data for the day of November 8 is not accessible, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until it is available. If the data is still unavailable by November 15th, the market will resolve based on the most recent 7-Day Moving Average prior to November 8.\n\nPlease note that the 7-day moving average for any particular date is counted as an average of daily counts for this day, previous three days, and next three days, thus the resolution data for this market will be checked on November 12. Note also, that if the average equals 44,000, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.1024552621670311425381503232290536", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.8975447378329688574618496767709464", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "77", "liquidity": "10351.04", "tradevolume": "10065.89", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\nA lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown—more than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?\nWill there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?\nLockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n--- \nAt least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n--- \nDuring at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n--- \nThe Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.\nDisputes related to question wording will be determined using admin discretion. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:17:13.636Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lou Barletta", "probability": 0.5263157894736842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Mastriano", "probability": 0.25438596491228066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "William McSwain", "probability": 0.11403508771929824, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Martin", "probability": 0.017543859649122806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Gale", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Gerow", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nche Zama", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kelly", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Laughlin", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Meuser", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ryan Aument", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Cawley", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", "probability": 0.008771929824561403, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Monn", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Richey", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:59.574Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 17382 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, William McSwain, Scott Martin, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Nche Zama, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Dan Meuser, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr., Jason Monn, Jason Richey" }, { "title": "Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before December 31?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-2pt5-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-december-31", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether more than 2.5 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day on or after August 13, 2021 and on or before December 31, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. Should this URL change or move locations, the MIC will use its best judgement to pick a new URL on the tsa.gov domain. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 2.5 million for any day on or after August 13, 2021 and on or before December 31, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of December 31, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. If the target has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the days from August 13, 2021 to December 31, 2021 by January 7, 2022 the market will resolve to 50-50. Any revisions published to data for dates August 13, 2021 and onward prior to the release of data for December 31, 2021 will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.4105361466189422350794373975789015", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.5894638533810577649205626024210985", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "609", "liquidity": "5639.30", "tradevolume": "51391.95", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:19:55.397Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 191, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will the Senate next confirm as Federal Reserve vice chair of Supervision?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7564/Who-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Federal-Reserve-vice-chair-of-Supervision", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on October 27, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lael Brainard", "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raphael Bostic", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Seth Carpenter", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roger Ferguson", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Judge", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "William Spriggs", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lisa Cook", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Randal Quarles", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:04.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 9323 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lael Brainard, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, Seth Carpenter, Roger Ferguson, Kathryn Judge, William Spriggs, Lisa Cook, Randal Quarles" }, { "title": "What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2126-what-percentage-of-venture-capital-dollars-will-go-to-us-startups-with-female-only-founders-in-2022-according-to-crunchbase", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Women-led firms have historically seen a small fraction of venture capital funding ([Crunchbase](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/sole-female-founders-raised-1b-less-in-2020-despite-record-venture-funding-surge-in-the-us/), [Harvard Business Review](https://hbr.org/2021/02/women-led-startups-received-just-2-3-of-vc-funding-in-2020)). The outcome will be determined using data published by Crunchbase for the US for 2022, expected in 2023. For 2020, the percentage was 2.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.5%", "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3.5% or more", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:01.198Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 49, "numforecasters": 32, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive, More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%, 3.5% or more" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Sierra Leone in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Sierra Leone is Julius Maada Bio, who has been in power for 3.7 years. Sierra Leone has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 24 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0297592", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9702408, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Sierra Leone", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Julius Maada Bio", "month_risk": "0.0011541", "annual_risk": "0.0297592", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "24", "leader_years": "3.666667", "country_code": "SLE", "country_abb": "SIE" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.\nWill Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:54:18.805Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-07-12T03:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2150-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-on-31-december-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "On 30 September 2021, sports broadcaster Al Michaels asked members of the Halftime Show panel on CNBC for the over/under on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 34,000 as of 31 December 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/09/30/al-michaels-previews-brady-vs-belichick-this-sunday.html)). Traders Josh Brown and Pete Najarian provided responses. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 33,000.00", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00", "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "37,000.00 or more", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:03.820Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "numforecasters": 48, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 33,000.00, Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00, Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00, 37,000.00 or more" }, { "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rahm Emanuel", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:03.570Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 536362 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Charlene Barshefsky, Rahm Emanuel, David Shambaugh, Claire McCaskill, Dan Kritenbrink" }, { "title": "Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2070-will-haiti-hold-a-presidential-election-before-1-january-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haiti-moves-constitutional-referendum-september-2021-06-29/)). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/americas/haiti-explainer-jovenel-moise-assassination-cmd-intl/index.html), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/10/world/jovenel-moise-assassinated#haiti-elections)). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/07/1095542)). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 16 August 2021: If a second round must be held to determine a winner and the second round is not held before 1 January 2022, then the question would close \"no.\"\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:41.693Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 291, "numforecasters": 69, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Biden is 2024 DNOM", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A2492", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2146-before-1-january-2023-will-a-ride-hailing-service-open-to-the-public-which-uses-autonomous-vehicles-be-launched-and-or-tested-on-public-roads-in-dubai", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, though testing may start sooner ([Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-to-become-first-city-outside-us-to-operate-driverless-vehicles), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/gm-backed-cruise-to-expand-self-driving-operations-to-dubai-in-2023.html), [Khaleej Times](https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/dubai-eyes-the-future-with-self-driving-cabs)). Testing must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:10.326Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 49, "numforecasters": 38, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the corporate tax rate be raised above 21% by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CORP-001", "platform": "Kalshi", "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate to be strictly greater than 21% becomes law by 8:00 PM on December 31, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see CORP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “became law.” (undefined)", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:05.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4, "yes_bid": 2, "yes_ask": 20, "spread": 18, "shares_volume": 162922 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:09:55.919Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 20827 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Why was Stonehenge built?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "Stonehenge may be the most famous of all megaliths. Various theories attribute its construction to Druids, Merlin, and even aliens. Although it is clear that Stonehenge was deliberately constructed, no one really knows why. This analysis focuses on the original purpose for which it was built, irrespective of what its functions may have been after it was constructed.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.", "probability": 0.8105659668974038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stonehenge was built as a burial site.", "probability": 0.1313461492124186, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.", "probability": 0.056899570682862534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.", "probability": 0.0011883132073152599, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe.", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship., Stonehenge was built as a burial site., Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker., Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing., Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe." }, { "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:46:51.770Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Ted Budd", "probability": 0.7407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", "probability": 0.2037037037037037, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Walker", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Forest", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Meadows", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Robinson", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:23.725Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 146731 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Richard Burr, Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows, Mark Robinson" }, { "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.92, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:32:56.722Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 210, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.45999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:17:28.613Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Jerome Powell", "probability": 0.7757009345794391, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lael Brainard", "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raphael Bostic", "probability": 0.07476635514018691, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roger Ferguson", "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin", "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "William Spriggs", "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Daly", "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:10:26.118Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 630813 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard, Raphael Bostic, Roger Ferguson, Sarah Bloom Raskin, William Spriggs, Mary Daly" }, { "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.42000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:06:48.560Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 2690 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?", "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060", "platform": "Rootclaim", "description": "On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself.", "probability": 0.9672599583106107, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No. Someone else killed Hernandez.", "probability": 0.032740041689389265, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:14:51.727Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself., No. Someone else killed Hernandez." }, { "title": "Will 'Eternals' get 90% or higher Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eternals-get-90-or-higher-audience-score-on-rotten-tomatoes", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, as checked on the resolution date, Marvel Studios' Eternals movie will be given 90% or higher Rotten Tomatoes' Audience Score, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source (Audience Score rating at Rotten Tomatoes' movie profile: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/eternals) for this market will be checked on the resolution date - November 8 at 12:00 PM ET. \n\nIf for any reason the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 6 hours, until the actual data is available. If the data is not available on the resolution source by November 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50.\n---------------\nEternals is a 2021 American epic superhero film based on the Marvel Comics race of the same name. Produced by Marvel Studios and distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures, it is the 26th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU).\n\nEternals will be released theatrically in the United States on November 5, 2021.\n\nRotten Tomatoes' Audience Score is the percentage of its users who rated a movie 3.5 stars or higher.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.02340157100137912953007408162670864", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9765984289986208704699259183732914", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "83", "liquidity": "3311.58", "tradevolume": "11908.53", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2143-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-us-10-yr-treasury-on-30-december-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 0% and 1%, inclusive", "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 1% but lower than 2%", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2% and 3%, inclusive", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 3% but lower than 4%", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% or higher", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:17.638Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "numforecasters": 70, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 0%, Between 0% and 1%, inclusive, Higher than 1% but lower than 2%, Between 2% and 3%, inclusive, Higher than 3% but lower than 4%, 4% or higher" }, { "title": "Will Ethereum reach $5000 by November 17th?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-reach-5000-by-november-17th", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Ethereum (ETH) reaches $5000.00 as per Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum) within the market time frame, and “No” otherwise. \n\nThe market time frame spans from November 3, 2021 to November 17, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.5290965223390980373588403021785356", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.4709034776609019626411596978214644", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "92", "liquidity": "2175.56", "tradevolume": "3874.55", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in India in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of India is Narendra Modi, who has been in power for 7.6 years. India has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 74 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0034211", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9965789, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "India", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Narendra Modi", "month_risk": "0.0001445", "annual_risk": "0.0034211", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "74", "leader_years": "7.583333", "country_code": "IND", "country_abb": "IND" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Tuvalu in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Tuvalu is Natano, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Tuvalu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0047852", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9952148, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Tuvalu", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Natano", "month_risk": "0.0002939", "annual_risk": "0.0047852", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "43", "leader_years": "2.25", "country_code": "TUV", "country_abb": "TUV" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:03:41.859Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 359, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \nIf there is no positive confirmation by 31 December 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous. \nWill the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:38:23.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. \nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. \n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)\nWill a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:19:03.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-04-19T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:43:32.486Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 162, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:19:08.519Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 520, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2002-will-us-print-book-sales-in-2021-exceed-those-in-2020", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year ([Publishing Perspectives](https://publishingperspectives.com/2021/01/npd-2020-was-the-us-markets-bestselling-year-for-print-in-a-decade-covid19/), [Publishers Weekly](https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/85256-print-unit-sales-rose-8-2-in-2020.html)). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group ([The NPD Group](https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/2021/after-a-slow-start--u-s--print-book-sales-rose-8-2-percent-in-2020--the-npd-group-says/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:45:42.985Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 610, "numforecasters": 157, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:56:59.422Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What percentage of the registered vote will the named candidate receive in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187257276", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "If the named candidate is not on the ballot then this market will be void. This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and customers are solely responsible for their positions. Customers should be aware that:
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1,000, Between 1,000 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 7,000, Between 7,000 and 15,000, inclusive, More than 15,000" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Croatia in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Croatia is Plenkovic, who has been in power for 5.2 years. Croatia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0031209", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9968791, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Croatia", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Plenkovic", "month_risk": "0.0002776", "annual_risk": "0.0031209", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "21", "leader_years": "5.166667", "country_code": "HRV", "country_abb": "CRO" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:08:16.081Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 526, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7980/will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "General Mark A. Milley became the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on October 1, 2019. For his official Department of Defense biography, please see [here](https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/614392/general-mark-a-milley/).\nOn 14 September 2021, it was reported [by the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/14/peril-woodward-costa-trump-milley-china/) that General Milley took steps to prevent President Donald Trump from being able to launch offensive war against China in January 2021, as detailed in an upcoming book by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.\nThis has led to calls from critics as such as [The National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/general-milley-should-be-fired-for-holding-secret-personal-talks-with-china/) for his ouster, and for him to be brought up on charges up to and including treason.\nBy 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?\nThis question resolves as positive if General Milley leaves or is removed from his position of 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff by 11:59 PM on 31 December 2021. Otherwise this resolves as negative.\nIn the event General Milley leaves his position, this question retroactively resolves before the result was known \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:07:39.995Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 70, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-20T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by December 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-spacexs-starship-successfully-reach-outer-space-by-december-31-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether SpaceX will successfully complete a launch of the next Starship intended to reach outer space, currently dubbed \"SN20\", by December 31st, 2021. A successful launch will mean that Starship takes off from its launchpad in Boca Chica, TX, and successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. If the Starship completes a successful launch by December 31st, 2021, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship or replacement of \"SN20\" with another vehicle (i.e. \"SN21\", etc.) will have no bearing on the outcome of the market. Any SpaceX Starship launch that is not intended for outer space will have no bearing on the market. This market will resolve solely on whether the first Starship launch intended to reach outer space will successfully reach 62 miles above sea level. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.1155467656474243091777942043310024", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.8844532343525756908222057956689976", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "283", "liquidity": "3529.12", "tradevolume": "12731.97", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.\nWill there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.\n[EIDT] Sylvain 2021-09-02: reversed the title, which was the opposite of the resolution criteria.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:49:07.957Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will New World be a Top 3 game on Steam on November 8?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-new-world-be-a-top-3-game-on-steam-on-november-8", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether New World will be in the Top 3 games on Steam in terms of peak players on November 8, 2021 at 11:59PM ET. Results of this market will be decided by official Steam player count (\"Peak Today\") available at https://store.steampowered.com/stats/. \n\nIf New World is in the top 3 or tied for the third spot, the market will resolve \"Yes\", and otherwise \"No.\" \n\nIn the event the resolution source is not available on November 8, 2021 at 11:59PM ET, another credible source will be chosen. If no other credible sources are available, the sources will be checked every 24 hours until November 15, 2021 when the market will resolve 50-50.\n\n------------------\n\nThe games listed at the resolution source will be ranked from highest to lowest based on the amounts in the \"Peak Today\" column. In the case of ties, the market will use standard competition ranking (\"1224\" ranking), where each game's ranking number is 1 plus the number of games ranked above it.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.3580446363316277139152201374284544", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.6419553636683722860847798625715456", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "58", "liquidity": "4856.08", "tradevolume": "7481.15", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Trump wins the Republican primary in 2023/2024", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A692", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the floor price of CryptoPunks be above 100 ETH on November 15?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-floor-price-of-cryptopunks-be-above-100-eth-on-november-15", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether CryptoPunks will maintain a price floor over 100 ETH on November 15, 2021, at 12:00 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on the aforementioned check time, there are no CryptoPunks (on https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#) listed for 100 ETH or lower, and “No” otherwise. \n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.3128972652333975657968765310746295", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.6871027347666024342031234689253705", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "67", "liquidity": "16958.61", "tradevolume": "6414.05", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:29:23.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Djibouti in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Djibouti is Guelleh, who has been in power for 22.6 years. Djibouti has a personal regime type which has lasted for 45 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0172222", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9827778, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Djibouti", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Guelleh", "month_risk": "0.0007305", "annual_risk": "0.0172222", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "45", "leader_years": "22.58333", "country_code": "DJI", "country_abb": "DJI" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2174-between-29-october-2021-and-30-june-2022-how-many-members-will-announce-their-withdrawal-from-the-cooperation-between-china-and-central-and-eastern-european-countries-china-ceec-initiative", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" ([Taipei Times](https://taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/09/01/2003763571), [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/08/WS60bec348a31024ad0bac4355.html)). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/lithuania-pulls-out-china-17-1-bloc-eastern-central-europe-foreign-minister-gabrielius-landsbergis/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "0", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1 or 2", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or 4", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5 or more", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:01.595Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or more" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Laos in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Laos is Sisoulith, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Laos has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0054128", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9945872, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Laos", "regime_type": "Party", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Sisoulith", "month_risk": "0.0002707", "annual_risk": "0.0054128", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "46", "leader_years": "0.9166667", "country_code": "LAO", "country_abb": "LAO" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?\nThis question resolves positively, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nNo attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.\nWe request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:19:55.415Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:30:16.454Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 294, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:54:03.331Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.06999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:52:14.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 478, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)\nAccording to [the indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/page/file/1135066/download), the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.\nTheranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.\nHolmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. \nTheranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, [Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2015/05/27/forbes-announces-inaugural-list-of-americas-50-richest-self-made-women/)\nA turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.\nHolmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, [subject to further legal wrangling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-has-over-100-questions-for-jurors-11622217048), with the [trial expected to commence on August 31.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elizabeth-holmes-trial-pushed-to-august-after-surprise-pregnancy-announcement.html) However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to [a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.327949/gov.uscourts.cand.327949.808.0.pdf), the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer.\nWill Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. \nIf Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023.\nIf this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:49:13.160Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 301, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:03:38.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 495, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:21:17.335Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 163, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n--\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--Will the Wiki be \"alive\"? \nBy 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?\nThe question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:40:55.195Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:43:03.481Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:43:29.843Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:39:08.690Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Portugal in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Portugal is de Sousa, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Portugal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 45 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0021564", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9978436, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Portugal", "regime_type": "Presidential", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "de Sousa", "month_risk": "0.0001914", "annual_risk": "0.0021564", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "45", "leader_years": "5.75", "country_code": "PRT", "country_abb": "POR" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Founders Fund invest in the next announced Onlyfans fundraising round in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-founders-fund-be-announced-as-an-investor-in-onlyfans-next-funding-round-in-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on if the venture capital firm Founders Fund will be listed as an investor in OnlyFans' next announced fundraising round in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Founders Fund is listed as an investor in OnlyFans' next announced funding round according to either Crunchbase, Bloomberg, or a direct post from an official OnlyFans or Founders Fund channel before January 1st, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET. If a new official OnlyFans fundraising round is announced and Founders Fund isn't publicly identified as an investor in the round, the market will resolve to \"No\". If no new fundraising round for OnlyFans is announced in one of the aforementioned publications by the end of 2021, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.08176241637859341777994931882852687", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.9182375836214065822200506811714731", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "155", "liquidity": "2519.96", "tradevolume": "20641.03", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Tajikistan in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Tajikistan is Rakhmonov, who has been in power for 29.1 years. Tajikistan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0168025", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9831975, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.753Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Tajikistan", "regime_type": "Personal", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Rakhmonov", "month_risk": "0.0021823", "annual_risk": "0.0168025", "risk_change_percent": "0.17", "regime_years": "30", "leader_years": "29.08333", "country_code": "TJK", "country_abb": "TAJ" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\nElon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? \nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:18:20.838Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 206, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-21T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/amazon-is-hiring-a-digital-currency-and-blockchain-expert.html), [City A.M.](https://www.cityam.com/amazon-definitely-lining-up-bitcoin-payments-and-token-confirms-insider/), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/amazon-no-we-have-no-plans-to-accept-bitcoin-payments)). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:44:04.702Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 365, "numforecasters": 189, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will India Walton win the general election for Mayor of Buffalo in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-india-walton-win-the-general-election-for-mayor-of-buffalo-in-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether India Walton will win the general election for Mayor of Buffalo in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Walton is the winner of the general election for Mayor of Buffalo, and \"No\" otherwise. The resolution source will be the official results of the recall election from the Erie County Board of Elections.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.004266889275019356858302455236462018", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": "0.995733110724980643141697544763538", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:21.887Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "1022", "liquidity": "2355.56", "tradevolume": "109892.80", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Eric Greitens", "probability": 0.3055555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Schmitt", "probability": 0.2685185185185185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", "probability": 0.1574074074074074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", "probability": 0.10185185185185185, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark McCloskey", "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Blunt", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:05:17.656Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 278100 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Jason Smith, Mark McCloskey, Roy Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner" }, { "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:19:19.267Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 245, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Iraq in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Iraq is Al-Kadhimi, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Iraq has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 10 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0041431", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9958569, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.751Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Iraq", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Al-Kadhimi", "month_risk": "0.0003403", "annual_risk": "0.0041431", "risk_change_percent": "0", "regime_years": "10", "leader_years": "1.583333", "country_code": "IRQ", "country_abb": "IRQ" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:12:51.044Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 99, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Russian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:32:13.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:49:00Z", "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:49:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2120-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-march-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page ([FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/)). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Lower than 40.0%", "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%", "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive", "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 55.0%", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:43:11.852Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 300, "numforecasters": 104, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 40.0%, Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive, Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%, Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive, Higher than 55.0%" }, { "title": "What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2152-what-will-be-facebook-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-31-may-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/04/1042921981/facebook-whistleblower-renewing-scrutiny-of-social-media-giant)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FB)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than $600 billion", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive", "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion", "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive", "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $1.35 trillion", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:00.313Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 117, "numforecasters": 49, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $600 billion, Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive, More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion, Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.35 trillion" }, { "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:16:36.457Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 445, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8394/hemp-attacks-causing-10-million-fatalities/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and how many such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about how much harm would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n---a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or \n---a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation \nIf one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?\nThis question resolves positively if at least one HEMP attack occurs before 2030-01-01 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by 2030-01-01 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by 2030-01-31. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\nNo attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources regarding what fatalities should be considered \"caused\" by the HEMP attack(s). This could include fatalities caused by the initial blast of a HEMP attack, the radioactive fallout, or by the infrastructure disruption caused by the HEMP. But estimates of fatalities caused by other bombs or military strikes in the same time place will not be counted as estimates of fatalities caused by the HEMP attack(s). \nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:05:56.710Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:11:43.533Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:38:51.183Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 486, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:52:15.106Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2144-what-will-be-the-average-air-quality-index-in-dubai-in-march-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow ([AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/about-airnow/)). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose \"Dubai\" under \"Select a City,\" and click on the \"Historical\" tab. Click on the file for \"2022 PM2.5 YTD,\" when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled \"AQI\" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a \"3\" under \"Month\" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Less than 85.00", "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95.00 but less than 105.00", "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive", "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 115.00", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:42:15.610Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 85.00, Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive, More than 95.00 but less than 105.00, Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive, More than 115.00" }, { "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:23:34.495Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 168, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 10 billion worldwide?", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "platform": "Good Judgment", "description": "With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times (ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/). Scroll to the section \"Vaccination doses administered...\" For location enter \"World,\" then click the boxes \"Raw numbers,\" \"Cumulative,\" and \"Total doses.\" The value and date will appear when hovering over the \"World\" line in the resulting graphic (ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=zzz&cumulative=1&doses=total&pop...).AGGREGATED FORECAST:
![\"1528\"](\"https://goodjudgment.io/agp/1ff354/current.png\" "\\"1528\\"")
![\"Plot](\"https://goodjudgment.io/agpe/key5.png\")
", "options": [ { "name": "Before 1 January 2022", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022", "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022", "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2022 and 30 June 2022", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2022", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-03T12:00:04.278Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, "extra": { "superforecastercommentary": "
" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022, Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022, Between 1 May 2022 and 30 June 2022, Not before 1 July 2022" }, { "title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:17:02.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Ken Paxton", "probability": 0.6826923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George P. Bush", "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eva Guzman", "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matt Krause", "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:28.680Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 42484 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Eva Guzman, Matt Krause" }, { "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):\n\"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified\"\nElection certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a [\"safe harbor\" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The \"safe harbor\" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.\nIn the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?\nThe question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the \"safe harbor\" deadline. The \"safe harbor\" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:15:28.825Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2024-11-02T03:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Robocup Challenge", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? \nPositive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:50:04.418Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 322, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z", "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:45:08Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Rs control Senate in 2022", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A1512", "platform": "Peter Wildeford", "description": "", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a coup in Nepal in the next year (as of 11/2021)?", "url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast", "platform": "CoupCast", "description": "The current leader of Nepal is Deuba, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Nepal has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 16 years", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": "0.0185884", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9814116, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:00:38.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "extra": { "country_name": "Nepal", "regime_type": "Parliamentary", "month": "11", "year": "2021", "leader_name": "Deuba", "month_risk": "0.0040635", "annual_risk": "0.0185884", "risk_change_percent": "0.33", "regime_years": "16", "leader_years": "0.4166667", "country_code": "NPL", "country_abb": "NEP" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that former President Donald Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in either the 2022 Republican primary election or the general election for any seat in the United States House of Representatives. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:08:44.142Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 130273 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2159-will-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-be-reelected-for-georgia-s-14th-congressional-district-in-2022", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", "description": "Rep. Greene was elected to her first term in 2020 and is expected to face a tough reelection campaign in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/575375-greene-challenger-raises-13m-in-latest-quarter), [Rome News-Tribune](https://www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/news/local/gop-challenger-files-to-face-marjorie-taylor-greene-in-primary/article_2f184f66-1582-11ec-a3ea-076b5bfebf93.html)). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022). If the outcome is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If the outcome is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:41:38.004Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "numforecasters": 39, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_%28Top_100%29.))\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:46:58.523Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 294, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n--- \n[WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n--- \n[The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)\nWill Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?\nA clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:\n---A bombing attack on the dam \n---Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam \nSuccess of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:18:17.529Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-08-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.6599999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:12:09.600Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as \"an existential threat to our community\".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)\n[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)\n[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)\n[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)\nWill the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T10:19:12.996Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 379, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:51:54.322Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 New Hampshire Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Chris Sununu", "probability": 0.7745098039215687, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kelly Ayotte", "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Bolduc", "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:07:43.715Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 9430 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Chris Sununu, Kelly Ayotte, Donald Bolduc" }, { "title": "Who will win the City of Chesapeake in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7516/Who-will-win-the-City-of-Chesapeake-in-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the individual who wins the most votes from the City of Chesapeake in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. \nCandidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:12:14.660Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 141517 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Glenn Youngkin, Terry McAuliffe" }, { "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by 2028-07-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-2028-07-31/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by 2028-07-31? \nWe specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:43:00.568Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 597, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T11:41:06.043Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election", "platform": "PredictIt", "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "options": [ { "name": "Republican", "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T12:01:31.840Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3, "shares_volume": 616937 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic" }, { "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "timestamp": "2021-11-05T09:17:46.205Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 232, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Who will be elected to be the Republican Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?", "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163916", "platform": "Betfair", "description": "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Republican National Convention. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Republican Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not. Customers should be aware that: