[
{
"title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column \"2021 Traveler Throughput\" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",
"options": [
{
"name": "The Games will begin",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Games will be postponed again by more than a day",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Games will be cancelled",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible run-off two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run again, but he has not yet committed to doing so.",
"options": [
{
"name": "National Rally (Rassemblement national)",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Republicans (Les Républicains)",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche !)",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "None of the above",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a snap general election could be called before then. The question will resolve on the total number of seats won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "League (Lega)",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "None of the parties above will win the largest number of seats or there will be a tie",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Since taking office in 2019, there have been calls to impeach President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for 20 January 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the 25th Amendment for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 20 January 2023",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20 January 2023 and 19 January 2025",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "On 20 January 2025",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 21 January 2025",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 February 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 August 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under \"Daten\" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named \"Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx\"), see the \"Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]\" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column \"Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen\" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row \"Gesamt\" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 May 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 November 2021",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 March 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower by more than 8%",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "At or below 2020 levels",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30%",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
}
]