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2 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
1ec6f34908
fetchers-v3 WIP 2022-06-03 20:05:02 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
571d968aab
feat: fetchers-v3 (WIP) 2022-06-03 20:05:00 +03:00
40 changed files with 70407 additions and 9815 deletions

1
.gitignore vendored
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@ -31,7 +31,6 @@ yarn-error.log*
# yarn vs npm conflict # yarn vs npm conflict
package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead
# yarn.lock
# Local Netlify folder # Local Netlify folder
.netlify .netlify

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@ -1,7 +0,0 @@
Copyright 2023 Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

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@ -11,8 +11,8 @@ This repository includes the source code for both the website and the library th
### 1. Download this repository ### 1. Download this repository
``` ```
$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast $ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecast $ cd metaforecasts
$ npm install $ npm install
``` ```
@ -26,28 +26,17 @@ See [./docs/configuration.md](./docs/configuration.md) for details.
### 3. Actually run ### 3. Actually run
After installing and building (`npm run build`) the application, `npm run cli` starts a local CLI which presents the user with choices. If you would like to skip that step, use the option name instead, e.g., `npm run cli wildeford`. `npm run cli` starts a local CLI which presents the user with choices. If you would like to skip that step, use the option name instead, e.g., `npm run cli wildeford`.
![](./public/screenshot-cli.png) ![](./public/screenshot-cli.png)
`npm run next-dev` starts a Next.js dev server with the website on `http://localhost:3000`. `npm run next-dev` starts a Next.js dev server with the website on `http://localhost:3000`.
So overall this would look like
```
$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecast
$ npm install
$ npm run build
$ npm run cli
$ npm run next-dev
```
### 4. Example: download the metaforecasts database ### 4. Example: download the metaforecasts database
``` ```
$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast $ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecast $ cd metaforecasts
$ npm install $ npm install
$ node src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js $ node src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js
``` ```
@ -89,22 +78,5 @@ Overall, the services which we use are:
## Various notes ## Various notes
- This repository is released under the [MIT license](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT). See `LICENSE.md`
- Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary) - Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary)
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions. - For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions.
- The database is updated once a day, at 3:00 AM UTC, with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.ts`. The frontpage is updated after that, at 6:00 AM UTC with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/index.ts frontpage`. It's possible that either of these two operations makes the webpage briefly go down.
## To do
- [x] Update Metaculus and Manifold Markets fetchers
- [x] Add markets from [Insight Prediction](https://insightprediction.com/).
- [ ] Use <https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-midterms-special> to update stars calculation for Manifold.
- [ ] Add a few more snippets, with fetching individual questions, questions with histories, questions added within the last 24h to the /contrib folder (good first issue)
- [ ] Refactor code so that users can capture and push the question history chart to imgur (good first issue)
- [ ] Upgrade to [React 18](https://reactjs.org/blog/2022/03/08/react-18-upgrade-guide.html). This will require dealing with the workaround we used for [this issue](https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481)
- [ ] Add database of resolutions
- [ ] Allow users to embed predictions in the EA Forum/LessWrong (in progress)
- [ ] Find a long-term mantainer for this project
- [ ] Allow users to record their own predictions
- [ ] Release snapshots (I think @niplav is working on this)
- [ ] ...

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@ -24,101 +24,95 @@
"build": "prisma generate && next build", "build": "prisma generate && next build",
"next-start": "next start", "next-start": "next start",
"next-export": "next export", "next-export": "next export",
"dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES", "dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES"
"upgrade-interactive": "yarn upgrade-interactive --latest"
}, },
"dependencies": { "dependencies": {
"@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.2", "@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.0",
"@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache": "^1.1.0", "@graphql-yoga/node": "^2.1.0",
"@pothos/core": "^3.22.8", "@pothos/core": "^3.5.1",
"@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.35.6", "@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.4.0",
"@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.28.6", "@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.10.0",
"@prisma/client": "^3.15.2", "@prisma/client": "^3.11.1",
"@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.5.1", "@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.2.8",
"@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.1", "@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.0",
"@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.7", "@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.1",
"@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.4", "@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.3",
"@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4", "@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4",
"@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0", "@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.2.1",
"@types/jsdom": "^16.2.15", "@types/jsdom": "^16.2.14",
"@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0", "@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"@types/react": "<18.0.0", "@types/react": "^17.0.39",
"@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.4", "@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.2",
"@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1", "@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
"@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3", "@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
"airtable": "^0.11.5", "airtable": "^0.11.1",
"ajv": "^8.11.0", "ajv": "^8.11.0",
"algoliasearch": "^4.14.2", "algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
"autoprefixer": "10.4.5", "autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
"axios": "^1.2.0", "axios": "^0.25.0",
"chroma-js": "^2.4.2", "chroma-js": "^2.4.2",
"critters": "^0.0.16", "critters": "^0.0.16",
"date-fns": "^2.29.3", "date-fns": "^2.28.0",
"dom-to-image": "^2.6.0", "dom-to-image": "^2.6.0",
"dotenv": "^16.0.3", "dotenv": "^16.0.0",
"fetch": "^1.1.0", "fetch": "^1.1.0",
"fs": "^0.0.1-security", "fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"fuse.js": "^6.6.2", "fuse.js": "^6.4.6",
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0", "google-spreadsheet": "^3.1.15",
"graphql": "^16.6.0", "graphql": "^16.3.0",
"graphql-request": "^5.0.0", "graphql-request": "^4.0.0",
"graphql-yoga": "^3.0.0-next.10", "html-to-image": "^1.7.0",
"html-to-image": "^1.10.8",
"https": "^1.0.0", "https": "^1.0.0",
"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0", "isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0",
"jsdom": "^19.0.0", "jsdom": "^19.0.0",
"json2csv": "^5.0.7", "json2csv": "^5.0.5",
"multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.25", "multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.17",
"next": "^12.3.1", "next": "12",
"next-plausible": "^3.6.3", "next-plausible": "^3.1.6",
"next-urql": "^3.3.3", "next-urql": "^3.3.2",
"nprogress": "^0.2.0", "nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"open": "^7.4.2", "open": "^7.3.1",
"papaparse": "^5.3.2", "papaparse": "^5.3.0",
"pg": "^8.8.0", "pg": "^8.7.3",
"postcss": "^8.4.18", "postcss": "^8.2.1",
"postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2", "postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2",
"postcss-preset-env": "^7.8.2", "postcss-preset-env": "^7.3.2",
"prisma": "^3.15.2", "prisma": "^3.11.1",
"query-string": "^7.1.1", "query-string": "^7.1.1",
"re-resizable": "^6.9.9", "re-resizable": "^6.9.9",
"react": "^17.0.2", "react": "^17.0.2",
"react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6", "react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.4.0", "react-compound-slider": "^3.3.1",
"react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.1.0", "react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.3",
"react-dom": "^17.0.2", "react-dom": "^17.0.2",
"react-dropdown": "^1.11.0", "react-dropdown": "^1.9.2",
"react-hook-form": "^7.38.0", "react-hook-form": "^7.27.0",
"react-icons": "^4.6.0", "react-icons": "^4.2.0",
"react-is": "^18.2.0", "react-is": "^18.0.0",
"react-markdown": "^8.0.3", "react-markdown": "^8.0.0",
"react-safe": "^1.3.0", "react-safe": "^1.3.0",
"react-select": "^5.5.4", "react-select": "^5.2.2",
"remark-gfm": "^3.0.1", "remark-gfm": "^3.0.1",
"tabletojson": "^2.0.7", "tabletojson": "^2.0.4",
"tailwindcss": "^3.2.0", "tailwindcss": "^3.0.22",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3", "textversionjs": "^1.1.3",
"ts-node": "^10.9.1", "ts-node": "^10.7.0",
"tunnel": "^0.0.6", "tunnel": "^0.0.6",
"urql": "^2.2.3", "urql": "^2.2.0",
"urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.6", "urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.5",
"victory": "^36.6.8" "victory": "^36.3.2"
},
"resolutions": {
"@types/react": "<18.0.0"
}, },
"devDependencies": { "devDependencies": {
"@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.13.7", "@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.6.2",
"@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.2.1", "@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.1.1",
"@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.4.3", "@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.2.9",
"@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.5.1", "@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.4.1",
"@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.3.5", "@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.2.8",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.7.5", "@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.4.8",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.5.5", "@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.3.5",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.5.0", "@netlify/plugin-nextjs": "^4.2.4",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.2.1",
"@types/pg": "^8.6.5", "@types/pg": "^8.6.5",
"eslint": "^8.25.0", "netlify-cli": "^9.13.6"
"eslint-config-next": "^12.3.1",
"typescript": "4.9.3"
} }
} }

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@ -93,3 +93,14 @@ model FrontpageId {
question Question @relation(fields: [id], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade) question Question @relation(fields: [id], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade)
id String @unique id String @unique
} }
model Robot {
id Int @id @default(autoincrement())
platform String
url String // non-unique, rescheduling always creates a new row
context Json
created DateTime @db.Timestamp(6)
scheduled DateTime @db.Timestamp(6) // can be equal to `created` or can be in the future for rescheduling or other purposes
completed DateTime? @db.Timestamp(6) // becomes non-null when the job is done
tried Int @default(0) // used to set a limit on max attempts for badly written platforms
}

8
src/Global.d.ts vendored
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@ -1,8 +0,0 @@
// Workaround related to: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788
// https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788#issuecomment-1000595524
declare type StaticImageData = {
src: string;
height: number;
width: number;
placeholder?: string;
};

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@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
#!/bin/bash #!/bin/bash
cd /home/loki/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecast/metaforecast-monorepo cd /home/loki/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecast/metaforecast-monorepo
/home/loki/.nvm/versions/node/v17.5.0/bin/npm run cli 3 > ../last-superforecast-fetch.txt
/home/loki/.nvm/versions/node/v16.15.0/lib/node_modules/npm/bin/npm-cli.js run cli goodjudgment > ../last-superforecast-fetch.txt

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@ -1,11 +1,10 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import axios from "axios"; import axios from "axios";
import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson"; import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import {average} from "../../utils"; import { average } from "../../utils";
import {hash} from "../utils/hash"; import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "./"; import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
import {FullQuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgment"; const platformName = "goodjudgment";
@ -31,30 +30,32 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
// hard-coded backup proxy // hard-coded backup proxy
*/ */
// proxy = { // proxy = {
// ip: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_IP, // ip: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_IP,
// port: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_PORT, // port: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_PORT,
// }; // };
// // } // // }
// let agent = tunnel.httpsOverHttp({ // let agent = tunnel.httpsOverHttp({
// proxy: { // proxy: {
// host: proxy.ip, // host: proxy.ip,
// port: proxy.port, // port: proxy.port,
// }, // },
// }); // });
const content = await axios.request({ const content = await axios
url: "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", .request({
method: "get", url: "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
headers: { method: "get",
"User-Agent": "Chrome" headers: {
}, "User-Agent": "Chrome",
// agent, },
// port: 80, // agent,
}).then((query) => query.data); // port: 80,
})
.then((query) => query.data);
// Processing // Processing
let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, {stripHtmlFromCells: false}); let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, { stripHtmlFromCells: false });
jsonTable.shift(); // deletes first element jsonTable.shift(); // deletes first element
jsonTable.pop(); // deletes last element jsonTable.pop(); // deletes last element
@ -62,21 +63,38 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0]; let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0];
if (title != undefined) { if (title != undefined) {
title = title.replaceAll("</a>", ""); title = title.replaceAll("</a>", "");
const id = `${platformName}-${ const id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
hash(title) const description = table
}`; .filter((row: any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:"))
const description = table.filter((row : any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:")).map((row : any) => row["0"]).map((text : any) => text.split("BACKGROUND:")[1].split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0].split("AT A GLANCE")[0].replaceAll("\n\n", "\n").split("\n").slice(3).join(" ").replaceAll(" ", "").replaceAll("<br> ", ""))[0]; .map((row: any) => row["0"])
const options = table.filter((row : any) => "4" in row).map((row : any) => ({ .map((text: any) =>
name: row["2"].split('<span class="qTitle">')[1].replace("</span>", ""), text
probability: Number(row["3"].split("%")[0]) / 100, .split("BACKGROUND:")[1]
type: "PROBABILITY" .split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0]
})); .split("AT A GLANCE")[0]
let analysis = table.filter((row : any) => row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false); .replaceAll("\n\n", "\n")
.split("\n")
.slice(3)
.join(" ")
.replaceAll(" ", "")
.replaceAll("<br> ", "")
)[0];
const options = table
.filter((row: any) => "4" in row)
.map((row: any) => ({
name: row["2"]
.split('<span class="qTitle">')[1]
.replace("</span>", ""),
probability: Number(row["3"].split("%")[0]) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
let analysis = table.filter((row: any) =>
row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false
);
// "Examples of Superforecaster Commentary" / Analysis // "Examples of Superforecaster Commentary" / Analysis
// The following is necessary twice, because we want to check if there is an empty list, and then get the first element of the first element of the list. // The following is necessary twice, because we want to check if there is an empty list, and then get the first element of the first element of the list.
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : "";
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; // not a duplicate
// not a duplicate
// console.log(analysis) // console.log(analysis)
let standardObj: FetchedQuestion = { let standardObj: FetchedQuestion = {
id, id,
@ -86,14 +104,16 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
options, options,
qualityindicators: {}, qualityindicators: {},
extra: { extra: {
superforecastercommentary: analysis || "" superforecastercommentary: analysis || "",
} },
}; };
results.push(standardObj); results.push(standardObj);
} }
} }
console.log("Failing is not unexpected; see utils/pullSuperforecastsManually.sh/js"); console.log(
"Failing is not unexpected; see utils/pullSuperforecastsManually.sh/js"
);
return results; return results;
}, },
@ -101,8 +121,8 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let nuno = () => 4; let nuno = () => 4;
let eli = () => 4; let eli = () => 4;
let misha = () => 3.5; let misha = () => 3.5;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); // , eli(), misha()]) let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
} },
}; };

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@ -1,13 +1,12 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import axios from "axios"; import axios from "axios";
import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson"; import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import {average} from "../../utils"; import { average } from "../../utils";
import {applyIfSecretExists} from "../utils/getSecrets"; import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
import {sleep} from "../utils/sleep"; import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown"; import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "./"; import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
import {FullQuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen"; const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen";
@ -18,98 +17,125 @@ const annoyingPromptUrls = [
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters",
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2246-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2022-thread", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2246-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2022-thread",
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2237-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2237-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen",
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2437-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen"
]; ];
const DEBUG_MODE: "on" | "off" = "off"; // "on" const DEBUG_MODE: "on" | "off" = "off"; // "on"
const id = () => 0; const id = () => 0;
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
function cleanDescription(text : string) { async function fetchPage(page: number, cookie: string) {
let md = toMarkdown(text);
let result = md.replaceAll("---", "-").replaceAll(" ", " ");
return result;
}
async function fetchPage(page : number, cookie : string) {
const response: string = await axios({ const response: string = await axios({
url: htmlEndPoint + page, url: htmlEndPoint + page,
method: "GET", method: "GET",
headers: { headers: {
Cookie: cookie Cookie: cookie,
} },
}).then((res) => res.data); }).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response) //console.log(response)
return response; return response;
} }
async function fetchStats(questionUrl : string, cookie : string) { async function fetchStats(questionUrl: string, cookie: string) {
let response: string = await axios({ let response: string = await axios({
url: questionUrl + "/stats", url: questionUrl + "/stats",
method: "GET", method: "GET",
headers: { headers: {
"Content-Type": "text/html",
Cookie: cookie, Cookie: cookie,
Referer: questionUrl Referer: questionUrl,
} },
}).then((res) => res.data); }).then((res) => res.data);
//console.log(response)
if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) { // Is binary?
throw Error("Not logged in"); let isbinary = response.includes("binary?&quot;:true");
}
// Init
let options: FullQuestionOption[] = [];
// Parse the embedded json let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
let htmlElements = response.split("\n"); if (isbinary) {
let jsonLines = htmlElements.filter((element) => element.includes("data-react-props")); // Crowd percentage
let embeddedJsons = jsonLines.map((jsonLine, i) => { let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
let innerJSONasHTML = jsonLine.split('data-react-props="')[1].split('"')[0]; let h3Element = htmlElements.filter((str) => str.includes("<h3>"))[0];
let json = JSON.parse(innerJSONasHTML.replaceAll("&quot;", '"')); // console.log(h3Element)
return json; let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0];
}); let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100;
let firstEmbeddedJson = embeddedJsons[0]; options.push(
let title = firstEmbeddedJson.question.name; {
let description = cleanDescription(firstEmbeddedJson.question.description); name: "Yes",
let comments_count = firstEmbeddedJson.question.comments_count; probability: probability,
let numforecasters = firstEmbeddedJson.question.predictors_count; type: "PROBABILITY",
let numforecasts = firstEmbeddedJson.question.prediction_sets_count; },
let questionType = firstEmbeddedJson.question.type; {
if (questionType.includes("Binary") || questionType.includes("NonExclusiveOpinionPoolQuestion") || questionType.includes("Forecast::Question") || ! questionType.includes("Forecast::MultiTimePeriodQuestion")) { name: "No",
options = firstEmbeddedJson.question.answers.map((answer : any) => ({name: answer.name, probability: answer.normalized_probability, type: "PROBABILITY"})); probability: +(1 - probability).toFixed(2), // avoids floating point shenanigans
if (options.length == 1 && options[0].name == "Yes") { type: "PROBABILITY",
let probabilityNo = options[0].probability > 1 ? 1 - options[0].probability / 100 : 1 - options[0].probability; }
options.push({name: "No", probability: probabilityNo, type: "PROBABILITY"}); );
} } else {
let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + response.split("tbody")[1] + "table>";
let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
options = firstTable.map((element: any) => ({
name: element["0"],
probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
//console.log(optionsHtmlElement)
//console.log(options)
} }
// Description
let descriptionraw = response.split(
`<div id="question-background" class="collapse smb">`
)[1];
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`</div>`)[0];
let descriptionprocessed2 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1);
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2
.split("\n")
.filter((string) => !string.includes("Confused? Check our"))
.join("\n");
let description = descriptionprocessed3;
// Number of forecasts
let numforecasts = response
.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1]
.split(",")[0];
//console.log(numforecasts)
// Number of predictors
let numforecasters = response
.split("predictors_count&quot;:")[1]
.split(",")[0];
//console.log(numpredictors)
let result = { let result = {
description: description, description,
options: options, options,
qualityindicators: { qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts), numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters), numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
comments_count: Number(comments_count) },
} // this mismatches the code below, and needs to be fixed, but I'm doing typescript conversion and don't want to touch any logic for now
}; } as any;
// console.log(JSON.stringify(result, null, 4));
return result; return result;
} }
function isSignedIn(html : string) { function isSignedIn(html: string) {
let isSignedInBool = !(html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") || html.includes("Sign up")); let isSignedInBool = !(
html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
html.includes("Sign up")
);
// console.log(html) // console.log(html)
if (! isSignedInBool) { if (!isSignedInBool) {
console.log("Error: Not signed in."); console.log("Error: Not signed in.");
} }
console.log(`is signed in? ${ console.log(`is signed in? ${isSignedInBool ? "yes" : "no"}`);
isSignedInBool ? "yes" : "no"
}`);
return isSignedInBool; return isSignedInBool;
} }
function reachedEnd(html : string) { function reachedEnd(html: string) {
let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter"); let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
if (reachedEndBool) { // console.log(html) if (reachedEndBool) {
//console.log(html)
} }
console.log(`Reached end? ${reachedEndBool}`); console.log(`Reached end? ${reachedEndBool}`);
return reachedEndBool; return reachedEndBool;
@ -117,15 +143,14 @@ function reachedEnd(html : string) {
/* Body */ /* Body */
async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) { async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
let i = 1; let i = 1;
let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie); let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
let results = []; let results = [];
let init = Date.now(); let init = Date.now();
// console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.") // console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.")
console.log("Page #1") while (!reachedEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
while (! reachedEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
let htmlLines = response.split("\n"); let htmlLines = response.split("\n");
DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach((line) => console.log(line)) : id(); DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach((line) => console.log(line)) : id();
let h5elements = htmlLines.filter((str) => str.includes("<h5> <a href=")); let h5elements = htmlLines.filter((str) => str.includes("<h5> <a href="));
@ -134,19 +159,20 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
for (let h5element of h5elements) { for (let h5element of h5elements) {
let h5elementSplit = h5element.split('"><span>'); let h5elementSplit = h5element.split('"><span>');
let url = h5elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1]; let url = h5elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1];
if (! annoyingPromptUrls.includes(url)) { if (!annoyingPromptUrls.includes(url)) {
let title = h5elementSplit[1].replace("</span></a></h5>", ""); let title = h5elementSplit[1].replace("</span></a></h5>", "");
await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000); // don't be as noticeable await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000); // don't be as noticeable
try { try {
let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie); let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
/*if (moreinfo.isbinary) { if (moreinfo.isbinary) {
if (! moreinfo.crowdpercentage) { // then request again. if (!moreinfo.crowdpercentage) {
// then request again.
moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie); moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
} }
}*/ }
let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)"); let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex); const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex);
if (! questionNumMatch) { if (!questionNumMatch) {
throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`); throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`);
} }
let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1]; let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1];
@ -156,19 +182,19 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
title: title, title: title,
url: url, url: url,
platform: platformName, platform: platformName,
... moreinfo ...moreinfo,
}; };
if (j % 30 == 0 || DEBUG_MODE == "on") { if (j % 30 == 0 || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
console.log(`Page #${i}`); console.log(`Page #${i}`);
console.log(question); console.log(question);
} else {
console.log(question.title)
} }
// console.log(question) // console.log(question)
results.push(question); results.push(question);
} catch (error) { } catch (error) {
console.log(error); console.log(error);
console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`); console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
} }
} }
j = j + 1; j = j + 1;
@ -181,7 +207,9 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
response = await fetchPage(i, cookie); response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
} catch (error) { } catch (error) {
console.log(error); console.log(error);
console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json`); console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
} }
} }
@ -192,11 +220,9 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
let end = Date.now(); let end = Date.now();
let difference = end - init; let difference = end - init;
console.log(`Took ${ console.log(
difference / 1000 `Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
} seconds, or ${ );
difference / (1000 * 60)
} minutes.`);
return results; return results;
} }
@ -208,18 +234,23 @@ export const goodjudgmentopen: Platform = {
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE; let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE;
return(await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null; return (await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null;
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
let minProbability = Math.min(...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)); let minProbability = Math.min(
let maxProbability = Math.max(...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)); ...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
);
let maxProbability = Math.max(
...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
);
let nuno = () => ((data.qualityindicators.numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2); let nuno = () => ((data.qualityindicators.numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2);
let eli = () => 3; let eli = () => 3;
let misha = () => minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5; let misha = () =>
minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]); let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
} },
}; };

View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
import { Question } from "@prisma/client"; import { Question } from "@prisma/client";
import { QuestionOption } from "../../common/types"; import { QuestionOption } from "../../common/types";
import { prisma } from "../database/prisma"; import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
import { getRobot, Robot } from "../robot";
// This file includes comon types and functions for working with platforms. // This file includes comon types and functions for working with platforms.
// The registry of all platforms is in a separate file, ./registry.ts, to avoid circular dependencies. // The registry of all platforms is in a separate file, ./registry.ts, to avoid circular dependencies.
@ -40,6 +40,10 @@ export type FetchedQuestion = Omit<
qualityindicators: Omit<QualityIndicators, "stars">; // slightly stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue qualityindicators: Omit<QualityIndicators, "stars">; // slightly stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue
}; };
type MFStorage = {
upsert: (q: FetchedQuestion) => Promise<void>;
};
// fetcher should return null if platform failed to fetch questions for some reason // fetcher should return null if platform failed to fetch questions for some reason
type PlatformFetcherV1 = () => Promise<FetchedQuestion[] | null>; type PlatformFetcherV1 = () => Promise<FetchedQuestion[] | null>;
@ -53,13 +57,18 @@ type PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames extends string> = (opts: {
args?: { [k in ArgNames]: string }; args?: { [k in ArgNames]: string };
}) => Promise<PlatformFetcherV2Result>; }) => Promise<PlatformFetcherV2Result>;
export type PlatformFetcher<ArgNames extends string> = type PlatformFetcherV3<
| PlatformFetcherV1 ArgNames extends string,
| PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames>; RobotContext = unknown
> = (opts: {
args?: { [k in ArgNames]: string };
robot: Robot<RobotContext>;
storage: MFStorage;
}) => Promise<void>;
// using "" as ArgNames default is technically incorrect, but shouldn't cause any real issues // using "" as ArgNames default is technically incorrect, but shouldn't cause any real issues
// (I couldn't find a better solution for signifying an empty value, though there probably is one) // (I couldn't find a better solution for signifying an empty value, though there probably is one)
export type Platform<ArgNames extends string = ""> = { export type Platform<ArgNames extends string = "", RobotContext = unknown> = {
name: string; // short name for ids and `platform` db column, e.g. "xrisk" name: string; // short name for ids and `platform` db column, e.g. "xrisk"
label: string; // longer name for displaying on frontend etc., e.g. "X-risk estimates" label: string; // longer name for displaying on frontend etc., e.g. "X-risk estimates"
color: string; // used on frontend color: string; // used on frontend
@ -74,6 +83,11 @@ export type Platform<ArgNames extends string = ""> = {
fetcherArgs?: ArgNames[]; fetcherArgs?: ArgNames[];
fetcher?: PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames>; fetcher?: PlatformFetcherV2<ArgNames>;
} }
| {
version: "v3";
fetcherArgs?: ArgNames[];
fetcher?: PlatformFetcherV3<ArgNames, RobotContext>;
}
); );
// Typing notes: // Typing notes:
@ -92,7 +106,7 @@ type PreparedQuestion = Omit<
export const prepareQuestion = ( export const prepareQuestion = (
q: FetchedQuestion, q: FetchedQuestion,
platform: Platform<any> platform: Platform<any, any>
): PreparedQuestion => { ): PreparedQuestion => {
return { return {
extra: {}, extra: {},
@ -120,14 +134,29 @@ export const upsertSingleQuestion = async (
// TODO - update history? // TODO - update history?
}; };
export const processPlatform = async <T extends string = "">( export const processPlatform = async <T extends string = "", RC = unknown>(
platform: Platform<T>, platform: Platform<T, RC>,
args?: { [k in T]: string } args?: { [k in T]: string }
) => { ) => {
if (!platform.fetcher) { if (!platform.fetcher) {
console.log(`Platform ${platform.name} doesn't have a fetcher, skipping`); console.log(`Platform ${platform.name} doesn't have a fetcher, skipping`);
return; return;
} }
if (platform.version === "v3") {
const robot = getRobot(platform);
const storage: MFStorage = {
async upsert(q) {
await upsertSingleQuestion(prepareQuestion(q, platform));
},
};
await platform.fetcher({
robot,
storage,
});
return;
}
const result = const result =
platform.version === "v1" platform.version === "v1"
? { questions: await platform.fetcher(), partial: false } // this is not exactly PlatformFetcherV2Result, since `questions` can be null ? { questions: await platform.fetcher(), partial: false } // this is not exactly PlatformFetcherV2Result, since `questions` can be null

View File

@ -1,339 +0,0 @@
/* Imports */
import {or} from "ajv/dist/compile/codegen";
import axios from "axios";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from ".";
import {QuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { average } from "../../utils";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "insight";
const marketsEnpoint = "https://insightprediction.com/api/markets?orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=asc";
const getMarketEndpoint = (id : number) => `https://insightprediction.com/api/markets/${id}`;
const SPORTS_CATEGORIES = [
'World Cup',
'MLB',
'Futures',
'Sports',
'EPL',
'Golf',
'NHL',
'College Football'
]
/* Support functions */
// Stubs
const excludeMarketFromTitle = (title : any) => {
if (!!title) {
return title.includes(" vs ") || title.includes(" Over: ") || title.includes("NFL") || title.includes("Will there be a first time winner") || title.includes("Premier League")
} else {
return true
}
}
const hasActiveYesNoOrderBook = (orderbook : any) => {
if (!!orderbook) {
let yes = !!orderbook.yes && !!orderbook.yes.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.buy) && orderbook.yes.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.yes.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.sell) && orderbook.yes.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let no = !!orderbook.no && !!orderbook.no.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.buy) && orderbook.no.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.no.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.sell) && orderbook.no.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.sell[0].price
return yes && no
} else {
return false
}
}
const isBinaryQuestion = (data : any) => Array.isArray(data) && data.length == 1
const geomMean = (a : number, b : number) => Math.sqrt(a * b)
const processRelativeUrls = (a : string) => a.replaceAll("] (/", "](http://insightprediction.com/").replaceAll("](/", "](http://insightprediction.com/")
const processDescriptionText = (text : any) => {
if (typeof text === 'string') {
return processRelativeUrls(toMarkdown(text))
} else {
return ""
}
}
const getOrderbookPrize = (orderbook : any) => {
let yes_min_cents = orderbook.yes.buy[0].price
let yes_max_cents = orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let yes_min = Number(yes_min_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_max = Number(yes_max_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_price_orderbook = geomMean(yes_min, yes_max)
return yes_price_orderbook
}
const getAnswerProbability = (answer : any) => {
let orderbook = answer.orderbook
let latest_yes_price = answer.latest_yes_price
if (!! orderbook && hasActiveYesNoOrderBook(orderbook)) {
let yes_price_orderbook = getOrderbookPrize(orderbook)
let yes_probability = (latest_yes_price ? geomMean(latest_yes_price, yes_price_orderbook) : yes_price_orderbook) / 100
return yes_probability
} else if (!! latest_yes_price) {
return latest_yes_price / 100
} else {
return -1
}
}
// Fetching
async function fetchPage(bearer: string, pageNum: number) {
let pageUrl = `${marketsEnpoint}&page=${pageNum}`
const response = await axios({
url: pageUrl, // &orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=desc`,
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response);
return response;
}
async function fetchMarket(bearer: string, marketId: number) {
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
const processMarket = (market : any) => {
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = []
if (!!market && !!market.answer && !!market.answer.data) {
let data = market.answer.data
if (isBinaryQuestion(data)) { // Binary questions
let answer = data[0]
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
}
} else { // non binary question
for (let answer of data) {
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
let newOption: QuestionOption = ({
name: String(answer.title),
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
});
options.push(newOption)
}
}
}
if (!! options && Array.isArray(options) && options.length > 0) {
const id = `${platformName}-${
market.id
}`
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id: id,
title: market.title,
url: market.url,
description: processDescriptionText(market.rules),
options,
qualityindicators: market.coin_id == "USD" ? (
{volume: market.volume}
) : ({})
};
return result;
}
}
return null
}
async function fetchAllMarkets(bearer: string) {
let pageNum = 1
let markets = []
let categories = []
let isEnd = false
while (! isEnd) {
if(pageNum % 20 == 0){
console.log(`Fetching page #${pageNum}`) // : ${pageUrl}
}
let page = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum)
// console.log(JSON.stringify(page, null, 2))
let data = page.data
if (!! data && Array.isArray(data) && data.length > 0) {
let lastMarket = data[data.length - 1]
let isLastMarketResolved = lastMarket.is_resolved
if (isLastMarketResolved == true) {
isEnd = true
}
let newMarkets = data.filter(market => !market.is_resolved && !market.is_expired && ! excludeMarketFromTitle(market.title))
for (let initMarketData of newMarkets) {
let fullMarketDataResponse = await fetchMarket(bearer, initMarketData.id)
let fullMarketData = fullMarketDataResponse.data
let processedMarketData = processMarket(fullMarketData)
if (processedMarketData != null && ! SPORTS_CATEGORIES.includes(fullMarketData.category)) {
console.log(`- Adding: ${
fullMarketData.title
}`)
console.group()
console.log(fullMarketData)
console.log(JSON.stringify(processedMarketData, null, 2))
console.groupEnd()
markets.push(processedMarketData)
}
let category = fullMarketData.category
categories.push(category)
}
} else {
isEnd = true
} pageNum = pageNum + 1
}
console.log(markets)
console.log(categories)
return markets
}
/*
async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer : string, marketId : number) {
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
async function fetchData(bearer : string) {
let pageNum = 1;
let reachedEnd = false;
let results = [];
while (! reachedEnd) {
let newPage = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum);
let newPageData = newPage.data;
let marketsFromPage = []
for (let market of newPageData) {
let response = await fetchQuestionStats(bearer, market.id);
let marketData = response.data
let marketAnswer = marketData.answer.data
delete marketData.answer
// These are the options and their prices.
let marketOptions = marketAnswer.map(answer => {
return({name: answer.title, probability: answer.latest_yes_price, type: "PROBABILITY"})
})
marketsFromPage.push({
... marketData,
options: marketOptions
});
}
let finalObject = marketsFromPage
console.log(`Page = #${pageNum}`);
// console.log(newPageData)
console.dir(finalObject, {depth: null});
results.push(... finalObject);
let newPagination = newPage.meta.pagination;
if (newPagination.total_pages == pageNum) {
reachedEnd = true;
} else {
pageNum = pageNum + 1;
}
}
return results
}
async function processPredictions(predictions : any[]) {
let results = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
const id = `${platformName}-${
prediction.id
}`;
const probability = prediction.probability;
const options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id,
title: prediction.title,
url: "https://example.com",
description: prediction.description,
options,
qualityindicators: {
// other: prediction.otherx,
// indicators: prediction.indicatorx,
}
};
return result;
});
return results; // resultsProcessed
}
*/
/* Body */
export const insight: Platform = {
name: platformName,
label: "Insight Prediction",
color: "#ff0000",
version: "v1",
async fetcher() {
let bearer = process.env.INSIGHT_BEARER;
if (!! bearer) {
let data = await fetchAllMarkets(bearer);
return data
} else {
throw Error("No INSIGHT_BEARER available in environment")
}
// let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; // await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
// return results;
},
calculateStars(data) {
let nuno = () => {
if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 10000){
return 4
} else if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 1000){
return 3
} else{
return 2
}
}
let eli = () => null;
let misha = () => null;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
}
};

View File

@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "manifold"; const platformName = "manifold";
const ENDPOINT = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets"; const endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
// See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5 // See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(endpoint: string) { async function fetchData() {
let response = await axios({ let response = await axios({
url: endpoint, url: endpoint,
method: "GET", method: "GET",
@ -23,31 +23,6 @@ async function fetchPage(endpoint: string) {
return response; return response;
} }
async function fetchAllData(){
let endpoint = ENDPOINT
let end = false
let allData = []
let counter = 1
while(!end){
console.log(`Query #${counter}: ${endpoint}`)
let newData = await fetchPage(endpoint)
if(Array.isArray(newData)){
allData.push(...newData)
let hasReachedEnd = (newData.length == 0) || (newData[newData.length -1] == undefined) || (newData[newData.length -1].id == undefined)
if(!hasReachedEnd){
let lastId = newData[newData.length -1].id
endpoint = `${ENDPOINT}?before=${lastId}`
}else{
end = true
}
}else{
end = true
}
counter = counter +1
}
return allData
}
function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) { function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) {
console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`); console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`);
let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0); let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0);
@ -88,12 +63,12 @@ function processPredictions(predictions: any[]): FetchedQuestion[] {
id: id, id: id,
title: prediction.question, title: prediction.question,
url: prediction.url, url: prediction.url,
description: prediction.description || "", description: prediction.description,
options, options,
qualityindicators: { qualityindicators: {
createdTime: prediction.createdTime, createdTime: prediction.createdTime,
// volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days, // deprecated. volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days,
volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours, volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours,
pool: prediction.pool, // normally liquidity, but I don't actually want to show it. pool: prediction.pool, // normally liquidity, but I don't actually want to show it.
}, },
extra: { extra: {
@ -115,16 +90,16 @@ export const manifold: Platform = {
color: "#793466", color: "#793466",
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let data = await fetchAllData(); let data = await fetchData();
let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
showStatistics(results); showStatistics(results);
return results; return results;
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
let nuno = () => let nuno = () =>
(data.qualityindicators.volume24Hours || 0) > 100 || (data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 250 ||
((data.qualityindicators.pool || 0) > 500 && ((data.qualityindicators.pool || 0) > 500 &&
(data.qualityindicators.volume24Hours || 0) > 50) (data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 100)
? 2 ? 2
: 1; : 1;
let eli = () => null; let eli = () => null;

View File

@ -1,6 +1,4 @@
import Ajv, { JTDDataType, ValidateFunction } from "ajv/dist/jtd"; import Ajv, { JTDDataType } from "ajv/dist/jtd";
import axios from "axios";
import { sleep } from "../../utils/sleep";
// Type examples: // Type examples:
// - group: https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/9866/ // - group: https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/9866/
@ -64,7 +62,6 @@ const predictableProps = {
additionalProperties: true, additionalProperties: true,
}, },
}, },
nullable: true,
additionalProperties: true, additionalProperties: true,
}, },
} as const; } as const;
@ -187,48 +184,38 @@ const validateShallowMultipleQuestions =
shallowMultipleQuestionsSchema shallowMultipleQuestionsSchema
); );
async function fetchWithRetries<T = unknown>(url: string): Promise<T> { // async function fetchWithRetries<T = unknown>(url: string): Promise<T> {
try { // try {
const response = await axios.get<T>(url); // const response = await axios.get<T>(url);
return response.data; // return response.data;
} catch (error) { // } catch (error) {
console.log(`Error while fetching ${url}`); // console.log(`Error while fetching ${url}`);
console.log(error); // console.log(error);
if (axios.isAxiosError(error)) { // if (axios.isAxiosError(error)) {
if (error.response?.headers["retry-after"]) { // if (error.response?.headers["retry-after"]) {
const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"]; // const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`); // console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + 1000); // await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + 1000);
} else { // } else {
await sleep(RETRY_SLEEP_TIME); // await sleep(RETRY_SLEEP_TIME);
} // }
} // }
} // }
const response = await axios.get<T>(url); // const response = await axios.get<T>(url);
return response.data; // return response.data;
} // }
const fetchAndValidate = async <T = unknown>( export async function prepareApiQuestions(
url: string, data: unknown
validator: ValidateFunction<T> ): Promise<ApiMultipleQuestions> {
): Promise<T> => { if (!validateShallowMultipleQuestions(data)) {
// console.log(url);
const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url);
if (validator(data)) {
return data;
}else{
console.log(data)
throw new Error( throw new Error(
`Response validation for url ${url} failed: ` + `Response validation failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validator.errors, null, 4) JSON.stringify(validateShallowMultipleQuestions.errors) +
"\n\n" +
JSON.stringify(data)
); );
} }
};
export async function fetchApiQuestions(
next: string
): Promise<ApiMultipleQuestions> {
const data = await fetchAndValidate(next, validateShallowMultipleQuestions);
const isDefined = <T>(argument: T | undefined): argument is T => { const isDefined = <T>(argument: T | undefined): argument is T => {
return argument !== undefined; return argument !== undefined;
@ -254,9 +241,16 @@ export async function fetchApiQuestions(
}; };
} }
export async function fetchSingleApiQuestion(id: number): Promise<ApiQuestion> { export async function prepareSingleApiQuestion(
return await fetchAndValidate( data: unknown
`https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/${id}/`, ): Promise<ApiQuestion> {
validateQuestion if (!validateQuestion(data)) {
); throw new Error(
`Response validation failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validateQuestion.errors) +
"\n\n" +
JSON.stringify(data)
);
}
return data;
} }

View File

@ -1,220 +1,197 @@
import Error from "next/error"; import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "..";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from ".."; import { average } from "../../../utils";
import {average} from "../../../utils"; import { Robot, RobotJob } from "../../robot";
import {sleep} from "../../utils/sleep";
import { import {
ApiCommon, ApiCommon,
ApiMultipleQuestions,
ApiPredictable, ApiPredictable,
ApiQuestion, ApiQuestion,
fetchApiQuestions, prepareApiQuestions,
fetchSingleApiQuestion prepareSingleApiQuestion,
} from "./api"; } from "./api";
const platformName = "metaculus"; const platformName = "metaculus";
const now = new Date().toISOString(); const now = new Date().toISOString();
const SLEEP_TIME = 1000; const SLEEP_TIME = 1000;
async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion: ApiQuestion): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> { type Context =
| {
type: "apiIndex";
}
| {
type: "apiQuestion";
};
const skip = (q: ApiPredictable): boolean => {
if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) {
return true;
}
if (q.number_of_predictions < 10) {
return true;
}
return false;
};
async function processApiQuestion(
apiQuestion: ApiQuestion
): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> {
// one item can expand: // one item can expand:
// - to 0 questions if we don't want it; // - to 0 questions if we don't want it;
// - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast // - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast
// - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details) // - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details)
const skip = (q : ApiPredictable) : boolean => { const buildFetchedQuestion = (
if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) { q: ApiPredictable & ApiCommon
return true; ): Omit<FetchedQuestion, "url" | "description" | "title"> => {
const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary";
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
if (isBinary) {
const probability = q.community_prediction.full.q2;
if (probability !== undefined) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
];
}
} }
if (q.number_of_predictions < 10) { return {
return true; id: `${platformName}-${q.id}`,
} options,
return false; qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions,
},
extra: {
resolution_data: {
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time,
},
},
};
}; };
const buildFetchedQuestion = (q : ApiPredictable & ApiCommon) : Omit < FetchedQuestion,
"url" | "description" | "title" > => {
const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary";
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
if (isBinary) {
const probability = q.community_prediction?.full.q2;
if (probability !== undefined) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
}
}
return {
id: `${platformName}-${
q.id
}`,
options,
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions
},
extra: {
resolution_data: {
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time
}
}
};
};
if (apiQuestion.type === "group") { if (apiQuestion.type === "group") {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); return (apiQuestion.sub_questions || [])
let apiQuestionDetailsTemp .filter((q) => !skip(q))
try{ .map((sq) => {
apiQuestionDetailsTemp = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id); const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq);
}catch(error){ return {
console.log(error) ...tmp,
return [] title: `${apiQuestion.title} (${sq.title})`,
} description: apiQuestion.description || "",
const apiQuestionDetails = apiQuestionDetailsTemp url: `https://www.metaculus.com${apiQuestion.page_url}?sub-question=${sq.id}`,
if (apiQuestionDetails.type !== "group") { };
console.log("Error: expected `group` type") });
return [] //throw new Error("Expected `group` type"); // shouldn't happen, this is mostly for typescript
}else{
try{
let result = (apiQuestionDetails.sub_questions || []).filter((q) => ! skip(q)).map((sq) => {
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq);
return {
... tmp,
title: `${
apiQuestion.title
} (${
sq.title
})`,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: `https://www.metaculus.com${
apiQuestion.page_url
}?sub-question=${
sq.id
}`
};
});
return result
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
}
} else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") { } else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") {
if (apiQuestion.group) { if (apiQuestion.group) {
return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level
} }
if (skip(apiQuestion)) { if (skip(apiQuestion)) {
console.log(`- [Skipping]: ${
apiQuestion.title
}`)
/*console.log(`Close time: ${
apiQuestion.close_time
}, resolve time: ${
apiQuestion.resolve_time
}`)*/
return []; return [];
} }
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion);
try{ return [
const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id); {
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion); ...tmp,
return [{ title: apiQuestion.title,
... tmp, description: apiQuestion.description || "",
title: apiQuestion.title, url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "", },
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url ];
},];
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
} else { } else {
if (apiQuestion.type !== "claim") { // should never happen, since `discriminator` in JTD schema causes a strict runtime check console.log(
console.log(`Unknown metaculus question type: ${ `Unknown metaculus question type: ${apiQuestion.type}, skipping`
(apiQuestion as any).type );
}, skipping`);
}
return []; return [];
} }
} }
export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = { async function processApiIndexQuestion(
apiQuestion: ApiQuestion,
robot: Robot<Context>
): Promise<void> {
if (apiQuestion.type === "group" || apiQuestion.type === "forecast") {
if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast" && skip(apiQuestion)) {
return;
}
await robot.schedule({
url: `https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/${apiQuestion.id}/`,
context: {
type: "apiQuestion",
},
});
}
}
export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug", Context> = {
name: platformName, name: platformName,
label: "Metaculus", label: "Metaculus",
color: "#006669", color: "#006669",
version: "v2", version: "v3",
fetcherArgs: [ fetcherArgs: ["id", "debug"],
"id", "debug" async fetcher({ robot, storage }) {
], await robot.schedule({
async fetcher(opts) { url: "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/",
let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = []; context: {
type: "apiIndex",
},
});
if (opts.args ?. id) { for (
try{ let job: RobotJob<Context> | undefined;
console.log("Using optional id arg.") (job = await robot.nextJob());
const id = Number(opts.args.id);
const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(id);
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion);
console.log(questions);
return {questions, partial: true};
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return {questions: [], partial: true};
}
}
let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/"; ) {
let i = 1; const data = await job.fetch();
while (next) {
console.log(`\nQuery #${i} - ${next}`);
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); if (job.context.type === "apiIndex") {
const apiQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(next); const apiIndex = await prepareApiQuestions(data);
const results = apiQuestions.results; if (apiIndex.next) {
// console.log(results) await robot.schedule({
let j = false; url: apiIndex.next,
context: {
for (const result of results) { type: "apiIndex",
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(result); },
// console.log(questions) });
for (const question of questions) {
console.log(`- ${
question.title
}`);
if ((! j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args ?. debug) {
console.log(question);
j = true;
}
allQuestions.push(question);
} }
for (const apiQuestion of apiIndex.results) {
await processApiIndexQuestion(apiQuestion, robot);
// for (const question of questions) {
// console.log(`- ${question.title}`);
// allQuestions.push(question);
// }
}
} else if (job.context.type === "apiQuestion") {
const apiQuestion = await prepareSingleApiQuestion(data);
const fetchedQuestions = await processApiQuestion(apiQuestion);
for (const q of fetchedQuestions) {
await storage.upsert(q);
}
} else {
console.warn(`Unknown context type ${(job.context as any).type}`);
} }
await job.done();
next = apiQuestions.next;
i += 1;
} }
return {questions: allQuestions, partial: false};
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
const {numforecasts} = data.qualityindicators; const { numforecasts } = data.qualityindicators;
const nuno = () => (numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2; const nuno = () =>
(numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
const eli = () => 3; const eli = () => 3;
const misha = () => 3; const misha = () => 3;
const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]); const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
} },
}; };

View File

@ -7,7 +7,6 @@ import { goodjudgmentopen } from "./goodjudgmentopen";
import { guesstimate } from "./guesstimate"; import { guesstimate } from "./guesstimate";
import { Platform, PlatformConfig } from "./index"; import { Platform, PlatformConfig } from "./index";
import { infer } from "./infer"; import { infer } from "./infer";
import { insight } from "./insight";
import { kalshi } from "./kalshi"; import { kalshi } from "./kalshi";
import { manifold } from "./manifold"; import { manifold } from "./manifold";
import { metaculus } from "./metaculus"; import { metaculus } from "./metaculus";
@ -19,7 +18,7 @@ import { wildeford } from "./wildeford";
import { xrisk } from "./xrisk"; import { xrisk } from "./xrisk";
// function instead of const array, this helps to fight circular dependencies // function instead of const array, this helps to fight circular dependencies
export const getPlatforms = (): Platform<string>[] => { export const getPlatforms = (): Platform<string, any>[] => {
return [ return [
betfair, betfair,
fantasyscotus, fantasyscotus,
@ -29,7 +28,6 @@ export const getPlatforms = (): Platform<string>[] => {
goodjudgmentopen, goodjudgmentopen,
guesstimate, guesstimate,
infer, infer,
insight,
kalshi, kalshi,
manifold, manifold,
metaculus, metaculus,

106
src/backend/robot/index.ts Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
import axios from "axios";
import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
import { Platform } from "../platforms";
// type Context = Prisma.JsonObject; // untyped for now, might become a generic in the future
export type RobotJob<Context> = {
context: Context;
fetch: () => Promise<unknown>;
done: () => Promise<void>;
};
export type Robot<Context> = {
nextJob: () => Promise<RobotJob<Context> | undefined>;
schedule: (args: { url: string; context?: Context }) => Promise<void>;
};
export const getRobot = <Context>(
platform: Platform<any, Context>
): Robot<Context> => {
return {
async nextJob() {
const jobData = await prisma.robot.findFirst({
where: {
platform: platform.name,
completed: {
equals: null,
},
scheduled: {
lte: new Date(),
},
},
orderBy: {
created: "asc",
},
});
if (!jobData) {
return;
}
await prisma.robot.update({
where: {
id: jobData?.id,
},
data: {
tried: jobData.tried + 1,
},
});
const job: RobotJob<Context> = {
context: jobData.context as Context,
async fetch() {
const data = await axios.get(jobData.url);
return data.data;
},
async done() {
await prisma.robot.update({
where: {
id: jobData.id,
},
data: {
completed: new Date(),
},
});
},
};
return job;
},
async schedule({ url, context = {} }) {
const now = new Date();
const oldJob = await prisma.robot.findFirst({
where: {
platform: platform.name,
url,
completed: {
equals: null,
},
},
});
if (oldJob) {
await prisma.robot.update({
where: {
id: oldJob.id,
},
data: {
created: now,
scheduled: now,
context,
},
});
} else {
await prisma.robot.create({
data: {
url,
platform: platform.name,
created: now,
scheduled: now,
context,
},
});
}
},
};
};

View File

@ -17,14 +17,12 @@ Router.events.on("routeChangeStart", (as, { shallow }) => {
Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done()); Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done());
Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done()); Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done());
function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) { function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) {
return ( return (
<PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org"> <PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org">
<Component {...pageProps} /> <Component {...pageProps} />
</PlausibleProvider> </PlausibleProvider>
); );
// Workaround in package.json for: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481
} }
export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), { export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), {

View File

@ -1,24 +1,13 @@
import {NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse} from "next"; import { NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse } from "next";
// apollo-server-micro is problematic since v3, see https://github.com/apollographql/apollo-server/issues/5547, so we use graphql-yoga instead // apollo-server-micro is problematic since v3, see https://github.com/apollographql/apollo-server/issues/5547, so we use graphql-yoga instead
import {createYoga} from "graphql-yoga"; import { createServer } from "@graphql-yoga/node";
import {useResponseCache} from '@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache'
import {schema} from "../../graphql/schema"; import { schema } from "../../graphql/schema";
const server = createYoga < { const server = createServer<{
req: NextApiRequest; req: NextApiRequest;
res: NextApiResponse; res: NextApiResponse;
} > ({ }>({ schema });
schema,
graphqlEndpoint: '/api/graphql',
plugins: [useResponseCache(
{ // global cache
session: () => null,
ttl: 2 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
// ^ 2h * 60 mins per hour, 60 seconds per min 1000 miliseconds per second
}
)]
});
export default server; export default server;

View File

@ -11,13 +11,13 @@ export const BoxedLink: React.FC<Props> = ({
children, children,
}) => ( }) => (
<a <a
className={`px-2 py-1 border-2 border-gray-400 rounded-lg text-black no-underline hover:bg-gray-100 inline-flex flex-nowrap space-x-1 items-center text-xs md:text-lg ${ className={`px-2 py-1 border-2 border-gray-400 rounded-lg text-black no-underline text-normal hover:bg-gray-100 inline-flex flex-nowrap space-x-1 items-center ${
size === "small" ? "text-sm" : "" size === "small" ? "text-sm" : ""
}`} }`}
href={url} href={url}
target="_blank" target="_blank"
> >
<span>{children}</span> <span>{children}</span>
<FaExternalLinkAlt className="text-gray-400 inline " /> <FaExternalLinkAlt className="text-gray-400 inline" />
</a> </a>
); );

View File

@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ export const Spinner: React.FC = () => (
cy="12" cy="12"
r="10" r="10"
stroke="currentColor" stroke="currentColor"
strokeWidth="4" stroke-width="4"
></circle> ></circle>
<path <path
className="opacity-75" className="opacity-75"

View File

@ -13,11 +13,9 @@ import {
VictoryVoronoiContainer, VictoryVoronoiContainer,
} from "victory"; } from "victory";
import { chartColors, ChartData, ChartSeries, goldenRatio } from "./utils"; import { chartColors, ChartData, ChartSeries, height, width } from "./utils";
const height = 200 let dateFormat = "MMM do y"; // "yyyy-MM-dd"
const width = 200 * goldenRatio
let dateFormat = "dd/MM/yy"; // "yyyy-MM-dd" // "MMM do yy"
// can't be replaced with React component, VictoryChart requires VictoryGroup elements to be immediate children // can't be replaced with React component, VictoryChart requires VictoryGroup elements to be immediate children
const getVictoryGroup = ({ const getVictoryGroup = ({
@ -39,7 +37,7 @@ const getVictoryGroup = ({
data: { data: {
// strokeOpacity: highlight ? 1 : 0.5, // strokeOpacity: highlight ? 1 : 0.5,
strokeOpacity: highlight && !isBinary ? 0.8 : 0.6, strokeOpacity: highlight && !isBinary ? 0.8 : 0.6,
strokeWidth: highlight && !isBinary ? 2.5 : 1.5, strokeWidth: highlight && !isBinary ? 4 : 3,
}, },
}} }}
/> />
@ -73,9 +71,9 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
const domainMax = const domainMax =
maxProbability < 0.5 ? Math.round(10 * (maxProbability + 0.05)) / 10 : 1; maxProbability < 0.5 ? Math.round(10 * (maxProbability + 0.05)) / 10 : 1;
const padding = { const padding = {
top: 12, top: 20,
bottom: 33, bottom: 75,
left: 30, left: 70,
right: 17, right: 17,
}; };
@ -101,12 +99,12 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
<VictoryLabel <VictoryLabel
style={[ style={[
{ {
fontSize: 10, fontSize: 16,
fill: "black", fill: "black",
strokeWidth: 0.05, strokeWidth: 0.05,
}, },
{ {
fontSize: 10, fontSize: 16,
fill: "#777", fill: "#777",
strokeWidth: 0.05, strokeWidth: 0.05,
}, },
@ -120,7 +118,7 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
)}` )}`
} }
style={{ style={{
fontSize: 10, // needs to be set here and not just in labelComponent for text size calculations fontSize: 17, // needs to be set here and not just in labelComponent for text size calculations
fontFamily: fontFamily:
'"Gill Sans", "Gill Sans MT", "Ser­avek", "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif', '"Gill Sans", "Gill Sans MT", "Ser­avek", "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif',
// default font family from Victory, need to be specified explicitly for some reason, otherwise text size gets miscalculated // default font family from Victory, need to be specified explicitly for some reason, otherwise text size gets miscalculated
@ -130,10 +128,10 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
fill: "white", fill: "white",
}} }}
cornerRadius={4} cornerRadius={4}
flyoutPadding={{ top: 4, bottom: 4, left: 10, right: 10 }} flyoutPadding={{ top: 4, bottom: 4, left: 16, right: 16 }}
/> />
} }
radius={20} radius={50}
voronoiBlacklist={ voronoiBlacklist={
[...Array(seriesList.length).keys()].map((i) => `line-${i}`) [...Array(seriesList.length).keys()].map((i) => `line-${i}`)
// see: https://github.com/FormidableLabs/victory/issues/545 // see: https://github.com/FormidableLabs/victory/issues/545
@ -161,10 +159,10 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
}} }}
tickLabelComponent={ tickLabelComponent={
<VictoryLabel <VictoryLabel
dx={-10} dx={-40}
dy={0} dy={0}
angle={-30} angle={-30}
style={{ fontSize: 9, fill: "#777" }} style={{ fontSize: 15, fill: "#777" }}
/> />
} }
scale={{ x: "time" }} scale={{ x: "time" }}
@ -176,7 +174,7 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
grid: { stroke: "#D3D3D3", strokeWidth: 0.5 }, grid: { stroke: "#D3D3D3", strokeWidth: 0.5 },
}} }}
tickLabelComponent={ tickLabelComponent={
<VictoryLabel dy={0} dx={5} style={{ fontSize: 9, fill: "#777" }} /> <VictoryLabel dy={0} style={{ fontSize: 18, fill: "#777" }} />
} }
// tickFormat specifies how ticks should be displayed // tickFormat specifies how ticks should be displayed
tickFormat={(x) => `${x * 100}%`} tickFormat={(x) => `${x * 100}%`}
@ -207,7 +205,6 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
}) })
*/ */
} }
</VictoryChart> </VictoryChart>
); );
}; };

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@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ export const HistoryChart: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => {
const data = useMemo(() => buildChartData(question), [question]); const data = useMemo(() => buildChartData(question), [question]);
return ( return (
<div className="flex items-center space-y-4 sm:flex-row sm:space-y-0 "> <div className="flex items-center flex-col space-y-4 sm:flex-row sm:space-y-0">
<InnerChart data={data} highlight={highlight} /> <InnerChart data={data} highlight={highlight} />
<Legend <Legend
items={data.seriesNames.map((name, i) => ({ items={data.seriesNames.map((name, i) => ({

View File

@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ export const chartColors = [
"#F59E0B", // amber-500 "#F59E0B", // amber-500
]; ];
export const goldenRatio = (1 + Math.sqrt(5)) / 2; const goldenRatio = (1 + Math.sqrt(5)) / 2;
// used both for chart and for ssr placeholder // used both for chart and for ssr placeholder
export const width = 750; export const width = 750;
export const height = width / goldenRatio; export const height = width / goldenRatio;

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@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ const getCurrencySymbolIfNeeded = ({
"openInterest", "openInterest",
"liquidity", "liquidity",
]; ];
let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket", "insight"]; let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket"];
if (indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol.includes(indicator)) { if (indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol.includes(indicator)) {
if (dollarPlatforms.includes(platform)) { if (dollarPlatforms.includes(platform)) {
return "$"; return "$";
@ -172,7 +172,6 @@ export const QuestionFooter: React.FC<Props> = ({
> >
{question.platform.label {question.platform.label
.replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen") .replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen")
.replace("Insight Prediction", "Insight")
.replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")} .replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")}
</div> </div>
<div <div

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@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ const truncateText = (length: number, text: string): string => {
return text; return text;
} }
const breakpoints = " .!?"; const breakpoints = " .!?";
let lastLetter let lastLetter: string | undefined = undefined;
let lastIndex let lastIndex: number | undefined = undefined;
for (let index = length; index > 0; index--) { for (let index = length; index > 0; index--) {
const letter = text[index]; const letter = text[index];
if (breakpoints.includes(letter)) { if (breakpoints.includes(letter)) {

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@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ const OptionRow: React.FC<OptionProps> = ({ option, mode, textMode }) => {
<div <div
className={`flex-none rounded-md text-center ${ className={`flex-none rounded-md text-center ${
mode === "primary" mode === "primary"
? "text-sm md:text-lg text-normal text-white px-2 py-0.5 font-bold" ? "text-normal text-white px-2 py-0.5 font-bold"
: "text-sm w-14 py-0.5" : "text-sm w-14 py-0.5"
} ${ } ${
mode === "primary" mode === "primary"
@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ const OptionRow: React.FC<OptionProps> = ({ option, mode, textMode }) => {
</div> </div>
<div <div
className={`leading-snug ${ className={`leading-snug ${
mode === "primary" ? "text-sm md:text-lg text-normal" : "text-sm" mode === "primary" ? "text-normal" : "text-sm"
} ${ } ${
mode === "primary" ? textColor(option.probability) : "text-gray-700" mode === "primary" ? textColor(option.probability) : "text-gray-700"
}`} }`}

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@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ export const QuestionTitle: React.FC<Props> = ({
question, question,
linkToMetaforecast, linkToMetaforecast,
}) => ( }) => (
<h1 className="sm:text-3xl text-lg"> <h1 className="sm:text-3xl text-xl">
<a <a
className="text-black no-underline hover:text-gray-700" className="text-black no-underline hover:text-gray-700"
href={ href={

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@ -54,5 +54,5 @@ function getStarsColor(numstars: number) {
} }
export const Stars: React.FC<{ num: number }> = ({ num }) => { export const Stars: React.FC<{ num: number }> = ({ num }) => {
return <div className={getStarsColor(num) + " text-xs md:text-lg"}>{getstars(num)}</div>; return <div className={getStarsColor(num)}>{getstars(num)}</div>;
}; };

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@ -30,25 +30,24 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
props: { props: {
urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(), urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(),
id, id,
question
}, },
}; };
}; };
const EmbedQuestionPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ id }) => { const EmbedQuestionPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ id }) => {
return ( return (
<div className="block bg-white min-h-screen"> <div className="bg-white min-h-screen">
<Query document={QuestionPageDocument} variables={{ id }}> <Query document={QuestionPageDocument} variables={{ id }}>
{({ data: { result: question } }) => {({ data: { result: question } }) =>
question ? ( question ? (
<div className="flex flex-col p-2 w-full h-12/12"> <div className="p-4">
{/*<QuestionTitle question={question} linkToMetaforecast={true} /> */} <QuestionTitle question={question} linkToMetaforecast={true} />
<div className="mb-1 mt-1"> <div className="mb-5 mt-5">
<QuestionInfoRow question={question} /> <QuestionInfoRow question={question} />
</div> </div>
<div className="mb-0"> <div className="mb-10">
<QuestionChartOrVisualization question={question} /> <QuestionChartOrVisualization question={question} />
</div> </div>
</div> </div>

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@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ const Section: React.FC<{ title: string; id?: string }> = ({
const EmbedSection: React.FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({ const EmbedSection: React.FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({
question, question,
}) => { }) => {
const url = `https://${getBasePath()}/questions/embed/${question.id}`; const url = getBasePath() + `/questions/embed/${question.id}`;
return ( return (
<Section title="Embed" id="embed"> <Section title="Embed" id="embed">
<CopyParagraph <CopyParagraph

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@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { QuestionFragment } from "./fragments.generated";
export const getBasePath = () => { export const getBasePath = () => {
if (process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL) { if (process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL) {
return `https://metaforecast.org`;//`https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`; return `https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`;
} }
// can be used for local development if you prefer non-default port // can be used for local development if you prefer non-default port
@ -14,8 +14,8 @@ export const getBasePath = () => {
}; };
export const cleanText = (text: string): string => { export const cleanText = (text: string): string => {
// TODO - move to GraphQL: // Note: should no longer be necessary?
// { description(clean: true, truncate: 250) } // Still needed for e.g. /questions/rootclaim-what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370
let textString = !!text ? text : ""; let textString = !!text ? text : "";
textString = textString textString = textString
.replaceAll("] (", "](") .replaceAll("] (", "](")
@ -23,13 +23,12 @@ export const cleanText = (text: string): string => {
.replaceAll("( [", "([") .replaceAll("( [", "([")
.replaceAll(") ,", "),") .replaceAll(") ,", "),")
.replaceAll("==", "") // Denotes a title in markdown .replaceAll("==", "") // Denotes a title in markdown
.replaceAll(/^#+\s+/gm, "") .replaceAll("Background\n", "")
.replaceAll(/^Background\n/gm, "") .replaceAll("Context\n", "")
.replaceAll(/^Context\n/gm, "")
.replaceAll("--- \n", "- ") .replaceAll("--- \n", "- ")
.replaceAll(/\[(.*?)\]\(.*?\)/g, "$1"); .replaceAll(/\[(.*?)\]\(.*?\)/g, "$1");
textString = textString.slice(0, 1) == "=" ? textString.slice(1) : textString; textString = textString.slice(0, 1) == "=" ? textString.slice(1) : textString;
//console.log(textString)
return textString; return textString;
}; };

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@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
url: "https://metaforecast.org", url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast", platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast", platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'?", description: "Maybe try a broader query?",
options: [ options: [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",
@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
url: "https://metaforecast.org", url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast", platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast", platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query? Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'? That said, we could be wrong.", description: "Maybe try a broader query? That said, we could be wrong.",
options: [ options: [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",

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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ export async function uploadToImgur(dataURL: string): Promise<string> {
method: "post", method: "post",
url: "https://api.imgur.com/3/image", url: "https://api.imgur.com/3/image",
headers: { headers: {
Authorization: `Bearer ${process.env.IMGUR_BEARER}`, Authorization: "Bearer 8e9666fb889318515a62208560d4e8393dac26d8",
}, },
data: { data: {
type: "base64", type: "base64",

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yarn.lock

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