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.gitignore vendored
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@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ yarn-error.log*
# yarn vs npm conflict # yarn vs npm conflict
package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead
# yarn.lock yarn.lock
# Local Netlify folder # Local Netlify folder
.netlify .netlify

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@ -1,7 +0,0 @@
Copyright 2023 Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

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@ -89,22 +89,5 @@ Overall, the services which we use are:
## Various notes ## Various notes
- This repository is released under the [MIT license](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT). See `LICENSE.md`
- Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary) - Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary)
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions. - For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions.
- The database is updated once a day, at 3:00 AM UTC, with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.ts`. The frontpage is updated after that, at 6:00 AM UTC with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/index.ts frontpage`. It's possible that either of these two operations makes the webpage briefly go down.
## To do
- [x] Update Metaculus and Manifold Markets fetchers
- [x] Add markets from [Insight Prediction](https://insightprediction.com/).
- [ ] Use <https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-midterms-special> to update stars calculation for Manifold.
- [ ] Add a few more snippets, with fetching individual questions, questions with histories, questions added within the last 24h to the /contrib folder (good first issue)
- [ ] Refactor code so that users can capture and push the question history chart to imgur (good first issue)
- [ ] Upgrade to [React 18](https://reactjs.org/blog/2022/03/08/react-18-upgrade-guide.html). This will require dealing with the workaround we used for [this issue](https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481)
- [ ] Add database of resolutions
- [ ] Allow users to embed predictions in the EA Forum/LessWrong (in progress)
- [ ] Find a long-term mantainer for this project
- [ ] Allow users to record their own predictions
- [ ] Release snapshots (I think @niplav is working on this)
- [ ] ...

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@ -24,101 +24,95 @@
"build": "prisma generate && next build", "build": "prisma generate && next build",
"next-start": "next start", "next-start": "next start",
"next-export": "next export", "next-export": "next export",
"dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES", "dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES"
"upgrade-interactive": "yarn upgrade-interactive --latest"
}, },
"dependencies": { "dependencies": {
"@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.2", "@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.0",
"@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache": "^1.1.0", "@graphql-yoga/node": "^2.1.0",
"@pothos/core": "^3.22.8", "@pothos/core": "^3.5.1",
"@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.35.6", "@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.4.0",
"@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.28.6", "@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.10.0",
"@prisma/client": "^3.15.2", "@prisma/client": "^3.11.1",
"@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.5.1", "@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.2.11",
"@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.1", "@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.0",
"@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.7", "@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.1",
"@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.4", "@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.3",
"@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4", "@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4",
"@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0", "@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.2.1",
"@types/jsdom": "^16.2.15", "@types/jsdom": "^16.2.14",
"@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0", "@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"@types/react": "<18.0.0", "@types/react": "^17.0.39",
"@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.4", "@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.2",
"@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1", "@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
"@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3", "@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
"airtable": "^0.11.5", "airtable": "^0.11.1",
"ajv": "^8.11.0", "ajv": "^8.11.0",
"algoliasearch": "^4.14.2", "algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
"autoprefixer": "10.4.5", "autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
"axios": "^1.2.0", "axios": "^0.25.0",
"chroma-js": "^2.4.2", "chroma-js": "^2.4.2",
"critters": "^0.0.16", "critters": "^0.0.16",
"date-fns": "^2.29.3", "date-fns": "^2.28.0",
"dom-to-image": "^2.6.0", "dom-to-image": "^2.6.0",
"dotenv": "^16.0.3", "dotenv": "^16.0.0",
"fetch": "^1.1.0", "fetch": "^1.1.0",
"fs": "^0.0.1-security", "fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"fuse.js": "^6.6.2", "fuse.js": "^6.4.6",
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0", "google-spreadsheet": "^3.1.15",
"graphql": "^16.6.0", "graphql": "^16.3.0",
"graphql-request": "^5.0.0", "graphql-request": "^4.0.0",
"graphql-yoga": "^3.0.0-next.10", "html-to-image": "^1.7.0",
"html-to-image": "^1.10.8",
"https": "^1.0.0", "https": "^1.0.0",
"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0", "isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0",
"jsdom": "^19.0.0", "jsdom": "^19.0.0",
"json2csv": "^5.0.7", "json2csv": "^5.0.5",
"multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.25", "multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.17",
"next": "^12.3.1", "next": "12",
"next-plausible": "^3.6.3", "next-plausible": "^3.1.6",
"next-urql": "^3.3.3", "next-urql": "^3.3.2",
"nprogress": "^0.2.0", "nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"open": "^7.4.2", "open": "^7.3.1",
"papaparse": "^5.3.2", "papaparse": "^5.3.0",
"pg": "^8.8.0", "pg": "^8.7.3",
"postcss": "^8.4.18", "postcss": "^8.2.1",
"postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2", "postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2",
"postcss-preset-env": "^7.8.2", "postcss-preset-env": "^7.3.2",
"prisma": "^3.15.2", "prisma": "^3.11.1",
"query-string": "^7.1.1", "query-string": "^7.1.1",
"re-resizable": "^6.9.9", "re-resizable": "^6.9.9",
"react": "^17.0.2", "react": "^17.0.2",
"react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6", "react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.4.0", "react-compound-slider": "^3.3.1",
"react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.1.0", "react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.3",
"react-dom": "^17.0.2", "react-dom": "^17.0.2",
"react-dropdown": "^1.11.0", "react-dropdown": "^1.9.2",
"react-hook-form": "^7.38.0", "react-hook-form": "^7.27.0",
"react-icons": "^4.6.0", "react-icons": "^4.2.0",
"react-is": "^18.2.0", "react-is": "^18.0.0",
"react-markdown": "^8.0.3", "react-markdown": "^8.0.0",
"react-safe": "^1.3.0", "react-safe": "^1.3.0",
"react-select": "^5.5.4", "react-select": "^5.2.2",
"remark-gfm": "^3.0.1", "remark-gfm": "^3.0.1",
"tabletojson": "^2.0.7", "tabletojson": "^2.0.4",
"tailwindcss": "^3.2.0", "tailwindcss": "^3.0.22",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3", "textversionjs": "^1.1.3",
"ts-node": "^10.9.1", "ts-node": "^10.7.0",
"tunnel": "^0.0.6", "tunnel": "^0.0.6",
"urql": "^2.2.3", "urql": "^2.2.0",
"urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.6", "urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.5",
"victory": "^36.6.8" "victory": "^36.3.2"
},
"resolutions": {
"@types/react": "<18.0.0"
}, },
"devDependencies": { "devDependencies": {
"@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.13.7", "@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.6.2",
"@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.2.1", "@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.1.1",
"@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.4.3", "@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.2.9",
"@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.5.1", "@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.4.1",
"@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.3.5", "@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.2.8",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.7.5", "@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.4.8",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.5.5", "@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.3.5",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.5.0", "@netlify/plugin-nextjs": "^4.2.4",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.2.1",
"@types/pg": "^8.6.5", "@types/pg": "^8.6.5",
"eslint": "^8.25.0", "netlify-cli": "^9.13.6"
"eslint-config-next": "^12.3.1",
"typescript": "4.9.3"
} }
} }

8
src/Global.d.ts vendored
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@ -1,8 +0,0 @@
// Workaround related to: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788
// https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788#issuecomment-1000595524
declare type StaticImageData = {
src: string;
height: number;
width: number;
placeholder?: string;
};

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@ -1,11 +1,10 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import axios from "axios"; import axios from "axios";
import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson"; import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import {average} from "../../utils"; import { average } from "../../utils";
import {hash} from "../utils/hash"; import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "./"; import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
import {FullQuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgment"; const platformName = "goodjudgment";
@ -31,30 +30,32 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
// hard-coded backup proxy // hard-coded backup proxy
*/ */
// proxy = { // proxy = {
// ip: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_IP, // ip: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_IP,
// port: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_PORT, // port: process.env.BACKUP_PROXY_PORT,
// }; // };
// // } // // }
// let agent = tunnel.httpsOverHttp({ // let agent = tunnel.httpsOverHttp({
// proxy: { // proxy: {
// host: proxy.ip, // host: proxy.ip,
// port: proxy.port, // port: proxy.port,
// }, // },
// }); // });
const content = await axios.request({ const content = await axios
url: "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", .request({
method: "get", url: "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
headers: { method: "get",
"User-Agent": "Chrome" headers: {
}, "User-Agent": "Chrome",
// agent, },
// port: 80, // agent,
}).then((query) => query.data); // port: 80,
})
.then((query) => query.data);
// Processing // Processing
let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, {stripHtmlFromCells: false}); let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, { stripHtmlFromCells: false });
jsonTable.shift(); // deletes first element jsonTable.shift(); // deletes first element
jsonTable.pop(); // deletes last element jsonTable.pop(); // deletes last element
@ -62,21 +63,38 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0]; let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0];
if (title != undefined) { if (title != undefined) {
title = title.replaceAll("</a>", ""); title = title.replaceAll("</a>", "");
const id = `${platformName}-${ const id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
hash(title) const description = table
}`; .filter((row: any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:"))
const description = table.filter((row : any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:")).map((row : any) => row["0"]).map((text : any) => text.split("BACKGROUND:")[1].split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0].split("AT A GLANCE")[0].replaceAll("\n\n", "\n").split("\n").slice(3).join(" ").replaceAll(" ", "").replaceAll("<br> ", ""))[0]; .map((row: any) => row["0"])
const options = table.filter((row : any) => "4" in row).map((row : any) => ({ .map((text: any) =>
name: row["2"].split('<span class="qTitle">')[1].replace("</span>", ""), text
probability: Number(row["3"].split("%")[0]) / 100, .split("BACKGROUND:")[1]
type: "PROBABILITY" .split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0]
})); .split("AT A GLANCE")[0]
let analysis = table.filter((row : any) => row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false); .replaceAll("\n\n", "\n")
.split("\n")
.slice(3)
.join(" ")
.replaceAll(" ", "")
.replaceAll("<br> ", "")
)[0];
const options = table
.filter((row: any) => "4" in row)
.map((row: any) => ({
name: row["2"]
.split('<span class="qTitle">')[1]
.replace("</span>", ""),
probability: Number(row["3"].split("%")[0]) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
let analysis = table.filter((row: any) =>
row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false
);
// "Examples of Superforecaster Commentary" / Analysis // "Examples of Superforecaster Commentary" / Analysis
// The following is necessary twice, because we want to check if there is an empty list, and then get the first element of the first element of the list. // The following is necessary twice, because we want to check if there is an empty list, and then get the first element of the first element of the list.
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : "";
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; // not a duplicate
// not a duplicate
// console.log(analysis) // console.log(analysis)
let standardObj: FetchedQuestion = { let standardObj: FetchedQuestion = {
id, id,
@ -86,14 +104,16 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
options, options,
qualityindicators: {}, qualityindicators: {},
extra: { extra: {
superforecastercommentary: analysis || "" superforecastercommentary: analysis || "",
} },
}; };
results.push(standardObj); results.push(standardObj);
} }
} }
console.log("Failing is not unexpected; see utils/pullSuperforecastsManually.sh/js"); console.log(
"Failing is not unexpected; see utils/pullSuperforecastsManually.sh/js"
);
return results; return results;
}, },
@ -101,8 +121,8 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let nuno = () => 4; let nuno = () => 4;
let eli = () => 4; let eli = () => 4;
let misha = () => 3.5; let misha = () => 3.5;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); // , eli(), misha()]) let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
} },
}; };

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@ -1,13 +1,12 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import axios from "axios"; import axios from "axios";
import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson"; import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import {average} from "../../utils"; import { average } from "../../utils";
import {applyIfSecretExists} from "../utils/getSecrets"; import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
import {sleep} from "../utils/sleep"; import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown"; import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "./"; import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
import {FullQuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen"; const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen";
@ -25,33 +24,33 @@ const id = () => 0;
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
function cleanDescription(text : string) { function cleanDescription(text: string) {
let md = toMarkdown(text); let md = toMarkdown(text);
let result = md.replaceAll("---", "-").replaceAll(" ", " "); let result = md.replaceAll("---", "-").replaceAll(" ", " ");
return result; return result;
} }
async function fetchPage(page : number, cookie : string) { async function fetchPage(page: number, cookie: string) {
const response: string = await axios({ const response: string = await axios({
url: htmlEndPoint + page, url: htmlEndPoint + page,
method: "GET", method: "GET",
headers: { headers: {
Cookie: cookie Cookie: cookie,
} },
}).then((res) => res.data); }).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response) //console.log(response)
return response; return response;
} }
async function fetchStats(questionUrl : string, cookie : string) { async function fetchStats(questionUrl: string, cookie: string) {
let response: string = await axios({ let response: string = await axios({
url: questionUrl + "/stats", url: questionUrl + "/stats",
method: "GET", method: "GET",
headers: { headers: {
"Content-Type": "text/html", "Content-Type": "text/html",
Cookie: cookie, Cookie: cookie,
Referer: questionUrl Referer: questionUrl,
} },
}).then((res) => res.data); }).then((res) => res.data);
if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) { if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) {
@ -62,7 +61,9 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl : string, cookie : string) {
// Parse the embedded json // Parse the embedded json
let htmlElements = response.split("\n"); let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
let jsonLines = htmlElements.filter((element) => element.includes("data-react-props")); let jsonLines = htmlElements.filter((element) =>
element.includes("data-react-props")
);
let embeddedJsons = jsonLines.map((jsonLine, i) => { let embeddedJsons = jsonLines.map((jsonLine, i) => {
let innerJSONasHTML = jsonLine.split('data-react-props="')[1].split('"')[0]; let innerJSONasHTML = jsonLine.split('data-react-props="')[1].split('"')[0];
let json = JSON.parse(innerJSONasHTML.replaceAll("&quot;", '"')); let json = JSON.parse(innerJSONasHTML.replaceAll("&quot;", '"'));
@ -75,11 +76,27 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl : string, cookie : string) {
let numforecasters = firstEmbeddedJson.question.predictors_count; let numforecasters = firstEmbeddedJson.question.predictors_count;
let numforecasts = firstEmbeddedJson.question.prediction_sets_count; let numforecasts = firstEmbeddedJson.question.prediction_sets_count;
let questionType = firstEmbeddedJson.question.type; let questionType = firstEmbeddedJson.question.type;
if (questionType.includes("Binary") || questionType.includes("NonExclusiveOpinionPoolQuestion") || questionType.includes("Forecast::Question") || ! questionType.includes("Forecast::MultiTimePeriodQuestion")) { if (
options = firstEmbeddedJson.question.answers.map((answer : any) => ({name: answer.name, probability: answer.normalized_probability, type: "PROBABILITY"})); questionType.includes("Binary") ||
questionType.includes("NonExclusiveOpinionPoolQuestion") ||
questionType.includes("Forecast::Question") ||
!questionType.includes("Forecast::MultiTimePeriodQuestion")
) {
options = firstEmbeddedJson.question.answers.map((answer: any) => ({
name: answer.name,
probability: answer.normalized_probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
if (options.length == 1 && options[0].name == "Yes") { if (options.length == 1 && options[0].name == "Yes") {
let probabilityNo = options[0].probability > 1 ? 1 - options[0].probability / 100 : 1 - options[0].probability; let probabilityNo =
options.push({name: "No", probability: probabilityNo, type: "PROBABILITY"}); options[0].probability > 1
? 1 - options[0].probability / 100
: 1 - options[0].probability;
options.push({
name: "No",
probability: probabilityNo,
type: "PROBABILITY",
});
} }
} }
let result = { let result = {
@ -88,28 +105,30 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl : string, cookie : string) {
qualityindicators: { qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts), numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters), numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
comments_count: Number(comments_count) comments_count: Number(comments_count),
} },
}; };
// console.log(JSON.stringify(result, null, 4)); // console.log(JSON.stringify(result, null, 4));
return result; return result;
} }
function isSignedIn(html : string) { function isSignedIn(html: string) {
let isSignedInBool = !(html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") || html.includes("Sign up")); let isSignedInBool = !(
html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
html.includes("Sign up")
);
// console.log(html) // console.log(html)
if (! isSignedInBool) { if (!isSignedInBool) {
console.log("Error: Not signed in."); console.log("Error: Not signed in.");
} }
console.log(`is signed in? ${ console.log(`is signed in? ${isSignedInBool ? "yes" : "no"}`);
isSignedInBool ? "yes" : "no"
}`);
return isSignedInBool; return isSignedInBool;
} }
function reachedEnd(html : string) { function reachedEnd(html: string) {
let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter"); let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
if (reachedEndBool) { // console.log(html) if (reachedEndBool) {
//console.log(html)
} }
console.log(`Reached end? ${reachedEndBool}`); console.log(`Reached end? ${reachedEndBool}`);
return reachedEndBool; return reachedEndBool;
@ -117,7 +136,7 @@ function reachedEnd(html : string) {
/* Body */ /* Body */
async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) { async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
let i = 1; let i = 1;
let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie); let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
@ -125,7 +144,7 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
let init = Date.now(); let init = Date.now();
// console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.") // console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.")
console.log("Page #1") console.log("Page #1")
while (! reachedEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) { while (!reachedEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
let htmlLines = response.split("\n"); let htmlLines = response.split("\n");
DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach((line) => console.log(line)) : id(); DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach((line) => console.log(line)) : id();
let h5elements = htmlLines.filter((str) => str.includes("<h5> <a href=")); let h5elements = htmlLines.filter((str) => str.includes("<h5> <a href="));
@ -134,19 +153,20 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
for (let h5element of h5elements) { for (let h5element of h5elements) {
let h5elementSplit = h5element.split('"><span>'); let h5elementSplit = h5element.split('"><span>');
let url = h5elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1]; let url = h5elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1];
if (! annoyingPromptUrls.includes(url)) { if (!annoyingPromptUrls.includes(url)) {
let title = h5elementSplit[1].replace("</span></a></h5>", ""); let title = h5elementSplit[1].replace("</span></a></h5>", "");
await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000); // don't be as noticeable await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000); // don't be as noticeable
try { try {
let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie); let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
/*if (moreinfo.isbinary) { if (moreinfo.isbinary) {
if (! moreinfo.crowdpercentage) { // then request again. if (!moreinfo.crowdpercentage) {
// then request again.
moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie); moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
} }
}*/ }
let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)"); let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex); const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex);
if (! questionNumMatch) { if (!questionNumMatch) {
throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`); throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`);
} }
let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1]; let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1];
@ -156,19 +176,21 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
title: title, title: title,
url: url, url: url,
platform: platformName, platform: platformName,
... moreinfo ...moreinfo,
}; };
if (j % 30 == 0 || DEBUG_MODE == "on") { if (j % 30 == 0 || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
console.log(`Page #${i}`); console.log(`Page #${i}`);
console.log(question); console.log(question);
} else { }else{
console.log(question.title) console.log(question.title)
} }
// console.log(question) // console.log(question)
results.push(question); results.push(question);
} catch (error) { } catch (error) {
console.log(error); console.log(error);
console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`); console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
} }
} }
j = j + 1; j = j + 1;
@ -181,7 +203,9 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
response = await fetchPage(i, cookie); response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
} catch (error) { } catch (error) {
console.log(error); console.log(error);
console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json`); console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
} }
} }
@ -192,11 +216,9 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
let end = Date.now(); let end = Date.now();
let difference = end - init; let difference = end - init;
console.log(`Took ${ console.log(
difference / 1000 `Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
} seconds, or ${ );
difference / (1000 * 60)
} minutes.`);
return results; return results;
} }
@ -208,18 +230,23 @@ export const goodjudgmentopen: Platform = {
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE; let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE;
return(await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null; return (await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null;
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
let minProbability = Math.min(...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)); let minProbability = Math.min(
let maxProbability = Math.max(...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)); ...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
);
let maxProbability = Math.max(
...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
);
let nuno = () => ((data.qualityindicators.numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2); let nuno = () => ((data.qualityindicators.numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2);
let eli = () => 3; let eli = () => 3;
let misha = () => minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5; let misha = () =>
minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]); let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
} },
}; };

View File

@ -1,339 +1,126 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import {or} from "ajv/dist/compile/codegen";
import axios from "axios"; import axios from "axios";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "."; import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from ".";
import {QuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { average } from "../../utils";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "insight"; const platformName = "insight";
const marketsEnpoint = "https://insightprediction.com/api/markets?orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=asc"; const marketsEnpoint = "https://insightprediction.com/api/markets";
const getMarketEndpoint = (id : number) => `https://insightprediction.com/api/markets/${id}`; const getMarketEndpoint = (id : number) => `https://insightprediction.com/api/markets/${id}`;
const SPORTS_CATEGORIES = [
'World Cup',
'MLB',
'Futures',
'Sports',
'EPL',
'Golf',
'NHL',
'College Football'
]
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
// Stubs async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer: string, marketId: number) {
const excludeMarketFromTitle = (title : any) => { const response = await axios({
if (!!title) { url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
return title.includes(" vs ") || title.includes(" Over: ") || title.includes("NFL") || title.includes("Will there be a first time winner") || title.includes("Premier League") method: "GET",
} else { headers: {
return true "Content-Type": "application/json",
} Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
} }
const hasActiveYesNoOrderBook = (orderbook : any) => {
if (!!orderbook) {
let yes = !!orderbook.yes && !!orderbook.yes.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.buy) && orderbook.yes.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.yes.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.sell) && orderbook.yes.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let no = !!orderbook.no && !!orderbook.no.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.buy) && orderbook.no.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.no.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.sell) && orderbook.no.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.sell[0].price
return yes && no
} else {
return false
}
}
const isBinaryQuestion = (data : any) => Array.isArray(data) && data.length == 1
const geomMean = (a : number, b : number) => Math.sqrt(a * b)
const processRelativeUrls = (a : string) => a.replaceAll("] (/", "](http://insightprediction.com/").replaceAll("](/", "](http://insightprediction.com/")
const processDescriptionText = (text : any) => {
if (typeof text === 'string') {
return processRelativeUrls(toMarkdown(text))
} else {
return ""
}
}
const getOrderbookPrize = (orderbook : any) => {
let yes_min_cents = orderbook.yes.buy[0].price
let yes_max_cents = orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let yes_min = Number(yes_min_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_max = Number(yes_max_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_price_orderbook = geomMean(yes_min, yes_max)
return yes_price_orderbook
}
const getAnswerProbability = (answer : any) => {
let orderbook = answer.orderbook
let latest_yes_price = answer.latest_yes_price
if (!! orderbook && hasActiveYesNoOrderBook(orderbook)) {
let yes_price_orderbook = getOrderbookPrize(orderbook)
let yes_probability = (latest_yes_price ? geomMean(latest_yes_price, yes_price_orderbook) : yes_price_orderbook) / 100
return yes_probability
} else if (!! latest_yes_price) {
return latest_yes_price / 100
} else {
return -1
}
}
// Fetching
async function fetchPage(bearer: string, pageNum: number) { async function fetchPage(bearer: string, pageNum: number) {
let pageUrl = `${marketsEnpoint}&page=${pageNum}` const response = await axios({
const response = await axios({ url: `${marketsEnpoint}?page=${pageNum}`, // &orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=desc`,
url: pageUrl, // &orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=desc`, method: "GET",
method: "GET", headers: {
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json",
"Content-Type": "application/json", Accept: "application/json",
Accept: "application/json", Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response);
return response;
}
async function fetchMarket(bearer: string, marketId: number) {
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
const processMarket = (market : any) => {
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = []
if (!!market && !!market.answer && !!market.answer.data) {
let data = market.answer.data
if (isBinaryQuestion(data)) { // Binary questions
let answer = data[0]
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
}
} else { // non binary question
for (let answer of data) {
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
let newOption: QuestionOption = ({
name: String(answer.title),
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
});
options.push(newOption)
} }
} }).then((res) => res.data);
} // console.log(response);
if (!! options && Array.isArray(options) && options.length > 0) { return response;
const id = `${platformName}-${
market.id
}`
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id: id,
title: market.title,
url: market.url,
description: processDescriptionText(market.rules),
options,
qualityindicators: market.coin_id == "USD" ? (
{volume: market.volume}
) : ({})
};
return result;
}
}
return null
} }
async function fetchAllMarkets(bearer: string) { async function fetchData(bearer: string) {
let pageNum = 1 let pageNum = 1;
let markets = [] let reachedEnd = false;
let categories = [] let results = [];
let isEnd = false while (! reachedEnd) {
while (! isEnd) { let newPage = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum);
if(pageNum % 20 == 0){ let newPageData = newPage.data;
console.log(`Fetching page #${pageNum}`) // : ${pageUrl} let marketsFromPage = []
} for (let market of newPageData) {
let page = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum) let response = await fetchQuestionStats(bearer, market.id);
// console.log(JSON.stringify(page, null, 2)) let marketData = response.data
let data = page.data let marketAnswer = marketData.answer.data
if (!! data && Array.isArray(data) && data.length > 0) { delete marketData.answer
let lastMarket = data[data.length - 1] // These are the options and their prices.
let isLastMarketResolved = lastMarket.is_resolved let marketOptions = marketAnswer.map(answer => {
if (isLastMarketResolved == true) { return({name: answer.title, probability: answer.latest_yes_price, type: "PROBABILITY"})
isEnd = true })
} marketsFromPage.push({
let newMarkets = data.filter(market => !market.is_resolved && !market.is_expired && ! excludeMarketFromTitle(market.title)) ... marketData,
for (let initMarketData of newMarkets) { options: marketOptions
let fullMarketDataResponse = await fetchMarket(bearer, initMarketData.id) });
let fullMarketData = fullMarketDataResponse.data
let processedMarketData = processMarket(fullMarketData)
if (processedMarketData != null && ! SPORTS_CATEGORIES.includes(fullMarketData.category)) {
console.log(`- Adding: ${
fullMarketData.title
}`)
console.group()
console.log(fullMarketData)
console.log(JSON.stringify(processedMarketData, null, 2))
console.groupEnd()
markets.push(processedMarketData)
} }
let category = fullMarketData.category let finalObject = marketsFromPage
categories.push(category)
} console.log(`Page = #${pageNum}`);
} else { // console.log(newPageData)
isEnd = true // console.dir(finalObject, {depth: null});
} pageNum = pageNum + 1 results.push(... finalObject);
}
console.log(markets) let newPagination = newPage.meta.pagination;
console.log(categories) if (newPagination.total_pages == pageNum) {
return markets reachedEnd = true;
} } else {
/* pageNum = pageNum + 1;
async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer : string, marketId : number) { }
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
} }
}).then((res) => res.data); return results
// console.log(response)
return response;
} }
async function processPredictions(predictions: any[]) {
let filteredPredictions = predictions.filter(prediction => !prediction.is_resolved && prediction.category != "Sports")
async function fetchData(bearer : string) { let results = filteredPredictions.map((prediction) => {
let pageNum = 1; const id = `${platformName}-${
let reachedEnd = false; prediction.id
let results = []; }`;
while (! reachedEnd) { const options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = prediction.options
let newPage = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum); const result: FetchedQuestion = {
let newPageData = newPage.data; id,
let marketsFromPage = [] title: prediction.title,
for (let market of newPageData) { url: `https:${
let response = await fetchQuestionStats(bearer, market.id); prediction.url
let marketData = response.data }`,
let marketAnswer = marketData.answer.data description: prediction.rules,
delete marketData.answer options,
// These are the options and their prices. qualityindicators: {
let marketOptions = marketAnswer.map(answer => { volume: prediction.volume,
return({name: answer.title, probability: answer.latest_yes_price, type: "PROBABILITY"}) createdTime: prediction.created_at
}) // other: prediction.otherx,
marketsFromPage.push({ // indicators: prediction.indicatorx,
... marketData, }
options: marketOptions };
}); return result;
} });
// Filter results
let finalObject = marketsFromPage return results; // resultsProcessed
console.log(`Page = #${pageNum}`);
// console.log(newPageData)
console.dir(finalObject, {depth: null});
results.push(... finalObject);
let newPagination = newPage.meta.pagination;
if (newPagination.total_pages == pageNum) {
reachedEnd = true;
} else {
pageNum = pageNum + 1;
}
}
return results
} }
async function processPredictions(predictions : any[]) {
let results = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
const id = `${platformName}-${
prediction.id
}`;
const probability = prediction.probability;
const options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id,
title: prediction.title,
url: "https://example.com",
description: prediction.description,
options,
qualityindicators: {
// other: prediction.otherx,
// indicators: prediction.indicatorx,
}
};
return result;
});
return results; // resultsProcessed
}
*/
/* Body */ /* Body */
export const insight: Platform = { export const insight: Platform = {
name: platformName, name: platformName,
label: "Insight Prediction", label: "Insight Prediction",
color: "#ff0000", color: "#ff0000",
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let bearer = process.env.INSIGHT_BEARER; let bearer = process.env.INSIGHT_BEARER;
if (!! bearer) { let data = await fetchData(bearer);
let data = await fetchAllMarkets(bearer); let results = await processPredictions(data);
return data console.log(results);
} else { return results;
throw Error("No INSIGHT_BEARER available in environment") },
calculateStars(data) {
return 2;
} }
// let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; // await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
// return results;
},
calculateStars(data) {
let nuno = () => {
if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 10000){
return 4
} else if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 1000){
return 3
} else{
return 2
}
}
let eli = () => null;
let misha = () => null;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
}
}; };

View File

@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "manifold"; const platformName = "manifold";
const ENDPOINT = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets"; const endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
// See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5 // See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(endpoint: string) { async function fetchData() {
let response = await axios({ let response = await axios({
url: endpoint, url: endpoint,
method: "GET", method: "GET",
@ -23,31 +23,6 @@ async function fetchPage(endpoint: string) {
return response; return response;
} }
async function fetchAllData(){
let endpoint = ENDPOINT
let end = false
let allData = []
let counter = 1
while(!end){
console.log(`Query #${counter}: ${endpoint}`)
let newData = await fetchPage(endpoint)
if(Array.isArray(newData)){
allData.push(...newData)
let hasReachedEnd = (newData.length == 0) || (newData[newData.length -1] == undefined) || (newData[newData.length -1].id == undefined)
if(!hasReachedEnd){
let lastId = newData[newData.length -1].id
endpoint = `${ENDPOINT}?before=${lastId}`
}else{
end = true
}
}else{
end = true
}
counter = counter +1
}
return allData
}
function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) { function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) {
console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`); console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`);
let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0); let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0);
@ -88,12 +63,12 @@ function processPredictions(predictions: any[]): FetchedQuestion[] {
id: id, id: id,
title: prediction.question, title: prediction.question,
url: prediction.url, url: prediction.url,
description: prediction.description || "", description: prediction.description,
options, options,
qualityindicators: { qualityindicators: {
createdTime: prediction.createdTime, createdTime: prediction.createdTime,
// volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days, // deprecated. volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days,
volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours, volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours,
pool: prediction.pool, // normally liquidity, but I don't actually want to show it. pool: prediction.pool, // normally liquidity, but I don't actually want to show it.
}, },
extra: { extra: {
@ -115,16 +90,16 @@ export const manifold: Platform = {
color: "#793466", color: "#793466",
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let data = await fetchAllData(); let data = await fetchData();
let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
showStatistics(results); showStatistics(results);
return results; return results;
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
let nuno = () => let nuno = () =>
(data.qualityindicators.volume24Hours || 0) > 100 || (data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 250 ||
((data.qualityindicators.pool || 0) > 500 && ((data.qualityindicators.pool || 0) > 500 &&
(data.qualityindicators.volume24Hours || 0) > 50) (data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 100)
? 2 ? 2
: 1; : 1;
let eli = () => null; let eli = () => null;

View File

@ -64,7 +64,6 @@ const predictableProps = {
additionalProperties: true, additionalProperties: true,
}, },
}, },
nullable: true,
additionalProperties: true, additionalProperties: true,
}, },
} as const; } as const;
@ -212,17 +211,15 @@ const fetchAndValidate = async <T = unknown>(
url: string, url: string,
validator: ValidateFunction<T> validator: ValidateFunction<T>
): Promise<T> => { ): Promise<T> => {
// console.log(url); console.log(url);
const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url); const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url);
if (validator(data)) { if (validator(data)) {
return data; return data;
}else{
console.log(data)
throw new Error(
`Response validation for url ${url} failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validator.errors, null, 4)
);
} }
throw new Error(
`Response validation for url ${url} failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validator.errors)
);
}; };
export async function fetchApiQuestions( export async function fetchApiQuestions(

View File

@ -1,27 +1,28 @@
import Error from "next/error"; import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "..";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from ".."; import { average } from "../../../utils";
import {average} from "../../../utils"; import { sleep } from "../../utils/sleep";
import {sleep} from "../../utils/sleep";
import { import {
ApiCommon, ApiCommon,
ApiMultipleQuestions, ApiMultipleQuestions,
ApiPredictable, ApiPredictable,
ApiQuestion, ApiQuestion,
fetchApiQuestions, fetchApiQuestions,
fetchSingleApiQuestion fetchSingleApiQuestion,
} from "./api"; } from "./api";
const platformName = "metaculus"; const platformName = "metaculus";
const now = new Date().toISOString(); const now = new Date().toISOString();
const SLEEP_TIME = 1000; const SLEEP_TIME = 1000;
async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion: ApiQuestion): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> { async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(
apiQuestion: ApiQuestion
): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> {
// one item can expand: // one item can expand:
// - to 0 questions if we don't want it; // - to 0 questions if we don't want it;
// - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast // - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast
// - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details) // - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details)
const skip = (q : ApiPredictable) : boolean => { const skip = (q: ApiPredictable): boolean => {
if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) { if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) {
return true; return true;
} }
@ -31,119 +32,89 @@ async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion: ApiQuestion): Promise<
return false; return false;
}; };
const buildFetchedQuestion = (q : ApiPredictable & ApiCommon) : Omit < FetchedQuestion, const buildFetchedQuestion = (
"url" | "description" | "title" > => { q: ApiPredictable & ApiCommon
const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary"; ): Omit<FetchedQuestion, "url" | "description" | "title"> => {
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = []; const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary";
if (isBinary) { let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
const probability = q.community_prediction?.full.q2; if (isBinary) {
if (probability !== undefined) { const probability = q.community_prediction.full.q2;
options = [ if (probability !== undefined) {
{ options = [
name: "Yes", {
probability: probability, name: "Yes",
type: "PROBABILITY" probability: probability,
}, { type: "PROBABILITY",
name: "No", },
probability: 1 - probability, {
type: "PROBABILITY" name: "No",
}, probability: 1 - probability,
]; type: "PROBABILITY",
} },
];
} }
return { }
id: `${platformName}-${ return {
q.id id: `${platformName}-${q.id}`,
}`, options,
options, qualityindicators: {
qualityindicators: { numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions,
numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions },
extra: {
resolution_data: {
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time,
}, },
extra: { },
resolution_data: {
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time
}
}
};
}; };
};
if (apiQuestion.type === "group") { if (apiQuestion.type === "group") {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
let apiQuestionDetailsTemp const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
try{
apiQuestionDetailsTemp = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
const apiQuestionDetails = apiQuestionDetailsTemp
if (apiQuestionDetails.type !== "group") { if (apiQuestionDetails.type !== "group") {
console.log("Error: expected `group` type") throw new Error("Expected `group` type"); // shouldn't happen, this is mostly for typescript
return [] //throw new Error("Expected `group` type"); // shouldn't happen, this is mostly for typescript
}else{
try{
let result = (apiQuestionDetails.sub_questions || []).filter((q) => ! skip(q)).map((sq) => {
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq);
return {
... tmp,
title: `${
apiQuestion.title
} (${
sq.title
})`,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: `https://www.metaculus.com${
apiQuestion.page_url
}?sub-question=${
sq.id
}`
};
});
return result
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
} }
return (apiQuestionDetails.sub_questions || [])
.filter((q) => !skip(q))
.map((sq) => {
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq);
return {
...tmp,
title: `${apiQuestion.title} (${sq.title})`,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: `https://www.metaculus.com${apiQuestion.page_url}?sub-question=${sq.id}`,
};
});
} else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") { } else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") {
if (apiQuestion.group) { if (apiQuestion.group) {
return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level
} }
if (skip(apiQuestion)) { if (skip(apiQuestion)) {
console.log(`- [Skipping]: ${
apiQuestion.title
}`)
/*console.log(`Close time: ${
apiQuestion.close_time
}, resolve time: ${
apiQuestion.resolve_time
}`)*/
return []; return [];
} }
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
try{ const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id); const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion);
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion); return [
return [{ {
... tmp, ...tmp,
title: apiQuestion.title, title: apiQuestion.title,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "", description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url,
},]; },
}catch(error){ ];
console.log(error)
return []
}
} else { } else {
if (apiQuestion.type !== "claim") { // should never happen, since `discriminator` in JTD schema causes a strict runtime check if (apiQuestion.type !== "claim") {
console.log(`Unknown metaculus question type: ${ // should never happen, since `discriminator` in JTD schema causes a strict runtime check
(apiQuestion as any).type console.log(
}, skipping`); `Unknown metaculus question type: ${
(apiQuestion as any).type
}, skipping`
);
} }
return []; return [];
} }
@ -154,25 +125,19 @@ export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
label: "Metaculus", label: "Metaculus",
color: "#006669", color: "#006669",
version: "v2", version: "v2",
fetcherArgs: [ fetcherArgs: ["id", "debug"],
"id", "debug"
],
async fetcher(opts) { async fetcher(opts) {
let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = []; let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
if (opts.args ?. id) { if (opts.args?.id) {
try{ const id = Number(opts.args.id);
console.log("Using optional id arg.") const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(id);
const id = Number(opts.args.id); const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion);
const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(id); console.log(questions);
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion); return {
console.log(questions); questions,
return {questions, partial: true}; partial: true,
};
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return {questions: [], partial: true};
}
} }
let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/"; let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/";
@ -183,17 +148,14 @@ export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
const apiQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(next); const apiQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(next);
const results = apiQuestions.results; const results = apiQuestions.results;
// console.log(results)
let j = false; let j = false;
for (const result of results) { for (const result of results) {
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(result); const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(result);
// console.log(questions)
for (const question of questions) { for (const question of questions) {
console.log(`- ${ console.log(`- ${question.title}`);
question.title if ((!j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args?.debug) {
}`);
if ((! j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args ?. debug) {
console.log(question); console.log(question);
j = true; j = true;
} }
@ -205,16 +167,20 @@ export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
i += 1; i += 1;
} }
return {questions: allQuestions, partial: false}; return {
questions: allQuestions,
partial: false,
};
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
const {numforecasts} = data.qualityindicators; const { numforecasts } = data.qualityindicators;
const nuno = () => (numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2; const nuno = () =>
(numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
const eli = () => 3; const eli = () => 3;
const misha = () => 3; const misha = () => 3;
const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]); const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
} },
}; };

View File

@ -17,14 +17,12 @@ Router.events.on("routeChangeStart", (as, { shallow }) => {
Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done()); Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done());
Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done()); Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done());
function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) { function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) {
return ( return (
<PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org"> <PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org">
<Component {...pageProps} /> <Component {...pageProps} />
</PlausibleProvider> </PlausibleProvider>
); );
// Workaround in package.json for: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481
} }
export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), { export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), {

View File

@ -1,24 +1,13 @@
import {NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse} from "next"; import { NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse } from "next";
// apollo-server-micro is problematic since v3, see https://github.com/apollographql/apollo-server/issues/5547, so we use graphql-yoga instead // apollo-server-micro is problematic since v3, see https://github.com/apollographql/apollo-server/issues/5547, so we use graphql-yoga instead
import {createYoga} from "graphql-yoga"; import { createServer } from "@graphql-yoga/node";
import {useResponseCache} from '@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache'
import {schema} from "../../graphql/schema"; import { schema } from "../../graphql/schema";
const server = createYoga < { const server = createServer<{
req: NextApiRequest; req: NextApiRequest;
res: NextApiResponse; res: NextApiResponse;
} > ({ }>({ schema });
schema,
graphqlEndpoint: '/api/graphql',
plugins: [useResponseCache(
{ // global cache
session: () => null,
ttl: 2 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
// ^ 2h * 60 mins per hour, 60 seconds per min 1000 miliseconds per second
}
)]
});
export default server; export default server;

View File

@ -11,13 +11,13 @@ export const BoxedLink: React.FC<Props> = ({
children, children,
}) => ( }) => (
<a <a
className={`px-2 py-1 border-2 border-gray-400 rounded-lg text-black no-underline hover:bg-gray-100 inline-flex flex-nowrap space-x-1 items-center text-xs md:text-lg ${ className={`px-2 py-1 border-2 border-gray-400 rounded-lg text-black no-underline text-normal hover:bg-gray-100 inline-flex flex-nowrap space-x-1 items-center ${
size === "small" ? "text-sm" : "" size === "small" ? "text-sm" : ""
}`} }`}
href={url} href={url}
target="_blank" target="_blank"
> >
<span>{children}</span> <span>{children}</span>
<FaExternalLinkAlt className="text-gray-400 inline " /> <FaExternalLinkAlt className="text-gray-400 inline" />
</a> </a>
); );

View File

@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ export const Spinner: React.FC = () => (
cy="12" cy="12"
r="10" r="10"
stroke="currentColor" stroke="currentColor"
strokeWidth="4" stroke-width="4"
></circle> ></circle>
<path <path
className="opacity-75" className="opacity-75"

View File

@ -13,11 +13,9 @@ import {
VictoryVoronoiContainer, VictoryVoronoiContainer,
} from "victory"; } from "victory";
import { chartColors, ChartData, ChartSeries, goldenRatio } from "./utils"; import { chartColors, ChartData, ChartSeries, height, width } from "./utils";
const height = 200 let dateFormat = "MMM do y"; // "yyyy-MM-dd"
const width = 200 * goldenRatio
let dateFormat = "dd/MM/yy"; // "yyyy-MM-dd" // "MMM do yy"
// can't be replaced with React component, VictoryChart requires VictoryGroup elements to be immediate children // can't be replaced with React component, VictoryChart requires VictoryGroup elements to be immediate children
const getVictoryGroup = ({ const getVictoryGroup = ({
@ -39,7 +37,7 @@ const getVictoryGroup = ({
data: { data: {
// strokeOpacity: highlight ? 1 : 0.5, // strokeOpacity: highlight ? 1 : 0.5,
strokeOpacity: highlight && !isBinary ? 0.8 : 0.6, strokeOpacity: highlight && !isBinary ? 0.8 : 0.6,
strokeWidth: highlight && !isBinary ? 2.5 : 1.5, strokeWidth: highlight && !isBinary ? 4 : 3,
}, },
}} }}
/> />
@ -73,9 +71,9 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
const domainMax = const domainMax =
maxProbability < 0.5 ? Math.round(10 * (maxProbability + 0.05)) / 10 : 1; maxProbability < 0.5 ? Math.round(10 * (maxProbability + 0.05)) / 10 : 1;
const padding = { const padding = {
top: 12, top: 20,
bottom: 33, bottom: 75,
left: 30, left: 70,
right: 17, right: 17,
}; };
@ -101,12 +99,12 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
<VictoryLabel <VictoryLabel
style={[ style={[
{ {
fontSize: 10, fontSize: 16,
fill: "black", fill: "black",
strokeWidth: 0.05, strokeWidth: 0.05,
}, },
{ {
fontSize: 10, fontSize: 16,
fill: "#777", fill: "#777",
strokeWidth: 0.05, strokeWidth: 0.05,
}, },
@ -120,7 +118,7 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
)}` )}`
} }
style={{ style={{
fontSize: 10, // needs to be set here and not just in labelComponent for text size calculations fontSize: 17, // needs to be set here and not just in labelComponent for text size calculations
fontFamily: fontFamily:
'"Gill Sans", "Gill Sans MT", "Ser­avek", "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif', '"Gill Sans", "Gill Sans MT", "Ser­avek", "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif',
// default font family from Victory, need to be specified explicitly for some reason, otherwise text size gets miscalculated // default font family from Victory, need to be specified explicitly for some reason, otherwise text size gets miscalculated
@ -130,10 +128,10 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
fill: "white", fill: "white",
}} }}
cornerRadius={4} cornerRadius={4}
flyoutPadding={{ top: 4, bottom: 4, left: 10, right: 10 }} flyoutPadding={{ top: 4, bottom: 4, left: 16, right: 16 }}
/> />
} }
radius={20} radius={50}
voronoiBlacklist={ voronoiBlacklist={
[...Array(seriesList.length).keys()].map((i) => `line-${i}`) [...Array(seriesList.length).keys()].map((i) => `line-${i}`)
// see: https://github.com/FormidableLabs/victory/issues/545 // see: https://github.com/FormidableLabs/victory/issues/545
@ -161,10 +159,10 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
}} }}
tickLabelComponent={ tickLabelComponent={
<VictoryLabel <VictoryLabel
dx={-10} dx={-40}
dy={0} dy={0}
angle={-30} angle={-30}
style={{ fontSize: 9, fill: "#777" }} style={{ fontSize: 15, fill: "#777" }}
/> />
} }
scale={{ x: "time" }} scale={{ x: "time" }}
@ -176,7 +174,7 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
grid: { stroke: "#D3D3D3", strokeWidth: 0.5 }, grid: { stroke: "#D3D3D3", strokeWidth: 0.5 },
}} }}
tickLabelComponent={ tickLabelComponent={
<VictoryLabel dy={0} dx={5} style={{ fontSize: 9, fill: "#777" }} /> <VictoryLabel dy={0} style={{ fontSize: 18, fill: "#777" }} />
} }
// tickFormat specifies how ticks should be displayed // tickFormat specifies how ticks should be displayed
tickFormat={(x) => `${x * 100}%`} tickFormat={(x) => `${x * 100}%`}
@ -207,7 +205,6 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
}) })
*/ */
} }
</VictoryChart> </VictoryChart>
); );
}; };

View File

@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ export const HistoryChart: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => {
const data = useMemo(() => buildChartData(question), [question]); const data = useMemo(() => buildChartData(question), [question]);
return ( return (
<div className="flex items-center space-y-4 sm:flex-row sm:space-y-0 "> <div className="flex items-center flex-col space-y-4 sm:flex-row sm:space-y-0">
<InnerChart data={data} highlight={highlight} /> <InnerChart data={data} highlight={highlight} />
<Legend <Legend
items={data.seriesNames.map((name, i) => ({ items={data.seriesNames.map((name, i) => ({

View File

@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ export const chartColors = [
"#F59E0B", // amber-500 "#F59E0B", // amber-500
]; ];
export const goldenRatio = (1 + Math.sqrt(5)) / 2; const goldenRatio = (1 + Math.sqrt(5)) / 2;
// used both for chart and for ssr placeholder // used both for chart and for ssr placeholder
export const width = 750; export const width = 750;
export const height = width / goldenRatio; export const height = width / goldenRatio;

View File

@ -172,7 +172,6 @@ export const QuestionFooter: React.FC<Props> = ({
> >
{question.platform.label {question.platform.label
.replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen") .replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen")
.replace("Insight Prediction", "Insight")
.replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")} .replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")}
</div> </div>
<div <div

View File

@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ const truncateText = (length: number, text: string): string => {
return text; return text;
} }
const breakpoints = " .!?"; const breakpoints = " .!?";
let lastLetter let lastLetter: string | undefined = undefined;
let lastIndex let lastIndex: number | undefined = undefined;
for (let index = length; index > 0; index--) { for (let index = length; index > 0; index--) {
const letter = text[index]; const letter = text[index];
if (breakpoints.includes(letter)) { if (breakpoints.includes(letter)) {

View File

@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ const OptionRow: React.FC<OptionProps> = ({ option, mode, textMode }) => {
<div <div
className={`flex-none rounded-md text-center ${ className={`flex-none rounded-md text-center ${
mode === "primary" mode === "primary"
? "text-sm md:text-lg text-normal text-white px-2 py-0.5 font-bold" ? "text-normal text-white px-2 py-0.5 font-bold"
: "text-sm w-14 py-0.5" : "text-sm w-14 py-0.5"
} ${ } ${
mode === "primary" mode === "primary"
@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ const OptionRow: React.FC<OptionProps> = ({ option, mode, textMode }) => {
</div> </div>
<div <div
className={`leading-snug ${ className={`leading-snug ${
mode === "primary" ? "text-sm md:text-lg text-normal" : "text-sm" mode === "primary" ? "text-normal" : "text-sm"
} ${ } ${
mode === "primary" ? textColor(option.probability) : "text-gray-700" mode === "primary" ? textColor(option.probability) : "text-gray-700"
}`} }`}

View File

@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ export const QuestionTitle: React.FC<Props> = ({
question, question,
linkToMetaforecast, linkToMetaforecast,
}) => ( }) => (
<h1 className="sm:text-3xl text-lg"> <h1 className="sm:text-3xl text-xl">
<a <a
className="text-black no-underline hover:text-gray-700" className="text-black no-underline hover:text-gray-700"
href={ href={

View File

@ -54,5 +54,5 @@ function getStarsColor(numstars: number) {
} }
export const Stars: React.FC<{ num: number }> = ({ num }) => { export const Stars: React.FC<{ num: number }> = ({ num }) => {
return <div className={getStarsColor(num) + " text-xs md:text-lg"}>{getstars(num)}</div>; return <div className={getStarsColor(num)}>{getstars(num)}</div>;
}; };

View File

@ -30,25 +30,24 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
props: { props: {
urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(), urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(),
id, id,
question
}, },
}; };
}; };
const EmbedQuestionPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ id }) => { const EmbedQuestionPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ id }) => {
return ( return (
<div className="block bg-white min-h-screen"> <div className="bg-white min-h-screen">
<Query document={QuestionPageDocument} variables={{ id }}> <Query document={QuestionPageDocument} variables={{ id }}>
{({ data: { result: question } }) => {({ data: { result: question } }) =>
question ? ( question ? (
<div className="flex flex-col p-2 w-full h-12/12"> <div className="p-4">
{/*<QuestionTitle question={question} linkToMetaforecast={true} /> */} <QuestionTitle question={question} linkToMetaforecast={true} />
<div className="mb-1 mt-1"> <div className="mb-5 mt-5">
<QuestionInfoRow question={question} /> <QuestionInfoRow question={question} />
</div> </div>
<div className="mb-0"> <div className="mb-10">
<QuestionChartOrVisualization question={question} /> <QuestionChartOrVisualization question={question} />
</div> </div>
</div> </div>

View File

@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ const Section: React.FC<{ title: string; id?: string }> = ({
const EmbedSection: React.FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({ const EmbedSection: React.FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({
question, question,
}) => { }) => {
const url = `https://${getBasePath()}/questions/embed/${question.id}`; const url = getBasePath() + `/questions/embed/${question.id}`;
return ( return (
<Section title="Embed" id="embed"> <Section title="Embed" id="embed">
<CopyParagraph <CopyParagraph

View File

@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { QuestionFragment } from "./fragments.generated";
export const getBasePath = () => { export const getBasePath = () => {
if (process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL) { if (process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL) {
return `https://metaforecast.org`;//`https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`; return `https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`;
} }
// can be used for local development if you prefer non-default port // can be used for local development if you prefer non-default port

View File

@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
url: "https://metaforecast.org", url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast", platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast", platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'?", description: "Maybe try a broader query?",
options: [ options: [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",
@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
url: "https://metaforecast.org", url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast", platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast", platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query? Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'? That said, we could be wrong.", description: "Maybe try a broader query? That said, we could be wrong.",
options: [ options: [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",

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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ export async function uploadToImgur(dataURL: string): Promise<string> {
method: "post", method: "post",
url: "https://api.imgur.com/3/image", url: "https://api.imgur.com/3/image",
headers: { headers: {
Authorization: `Bearer ${process.env.IMGUR_BEARER}`, Authorization: "Bearer 8e9666fb889318515a62208560d4e8393dac26d8",
}, },
data: { data: {
type: "base64", type: "base64",

8912
yarn.lock

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