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104 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
5c9378833e tweak: Add license, some small tweaks. 2023-01-05 18:24:26 +01:00
5fc9930265 upgrade: safe dependencies 2022-11-29 09:10:30 +00:00
685414e8fb feat: upgrade dependencies part 1. 2022-11-29 09:00:31 +00:00
fe4bba5169 tweak: change manifold quality indicators. 2022-11-26 13:27:00 +00:00
e9796c545d tweak: make indicators responsive to mobile 2022-11-17 21:58:15 +00:00
fc84300712 tweak: change getBasePath implementation
Unnecessary to expose the vercel url.
2022-11-17 20:16:24 +00:00
73329df47b feat: Fix embeds so that they are a bit more compressible.
Also remove the title, which is variable width & thus
very annoying to account for.
2022-11-17 20:12:31 +00:00
dc1e75d99d tweak: change embed page a bit more 2022-11-17 19:22:46 +00:00
0a7d2d160a tweak: Make embedded chart more compressible
Per pointers here:
<https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/pull/6096#issuecomment-1317821272>
2022-11-17 18:19:24 +00:00
67e4b825db fix: bug 2022-11-09 22:15:29 +00:00
dfe1de5279 feat: tweak metaforecast path in question embed.
No idea why this works differently in that particular page.
2022-11-09 22:12:21 +00:00
38a2fe8215 feat: add caching!! 2022-11-09 21:54:08 +00:00
8ccb88558f fix: yoga import bug 2022-11-09 21:37:32 +00:00
31bfb357b3 fix: continue yoga-graphql update 2022-11-09 21:36:19 +00:00
611d553193 feat: Start migration to yoga v3
Per <https://www.the-guild.dev/graphql/yoga-server/v3/migration/migration-from-yoga-v2>.

This is necessay in order to use the caching functionality
2022-11-09 21:30:39 +00:00
543ea966af Revert "tweak: update squiggle endpoint"
This reverts commit f476d8d9ad.

It breaks the Google Sheets endpoint, for some reason.
2022-11-03 19:26:50 +00:00
f476d8d9ad tweak: update squiggle endpoint 2022-11-03 13:24:54 +00:00
3f1334c02c tweak: rename "contrib" to "scripts" 2022-11-03 13:11:11 +00:00
78dd1dce40 tweak: modify readme 2022-11-02 11:55:17 +00:00
a457d6dd50 tweak: Add item to to-do list. 2022-11-02 11:34:51 +00:00
038b26ab7e fix: refactor imgur bearer. 2022-11-02 11:33:27 +00:00
a55f49d5a2 tweak: upgrade dependencies 2022-10-29 00:12:53 +01:00
8a191bb694 tweak: Insight name display 2022-10-28 15:25:47 +01:00
b9460be02d tweak: symbol for insight markets volume in $$ 2022-10-28 13:59:32 +01:00
fd7839932d tweak: console.log tweak 2022-10-28 13:59:14 +01:00
1fa2aa1bdd feat: insight prediction tweaks 2022-10-28 13:31:08 +01:00
d739def318 feat: add insight non-binary markets 2022-10-28 13:25:58 +01:00
bf89e4b11d feat: save further insight progress. 2022-10-28 12:37:28 +01:00
f5bf50456a feat: Add insight markets
So far restricted to:
- Binary markets
- Denominated in USD
2022-10-28 10:28:34 +01:00
d7843b52c3 feat: save insight prediction changes 2022-10-27 23:35:44 +01:00
370f332e64 tweak: add/clean to do items. 2022-10-27 19:12:30 +01:00
c0a72b6b9c fix: status spinner 2022-10-26 23:19:14 +01:00
8c91993f78
Merge pull request #97 from quantified-uncertainty/fix-metaculus-validation
Fix metaculus validation bug
2022-10-26 16:37:17 +01:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
2176c51d5f
community_prediction can be null on subquestions
e.g. https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12663/
2022-10-26 19:35:03 +04:00
002a0e5e2f tweak: Added some metaculus checking
But this doesn't work, because many questions
are being validated at once. Aarg.
2022-10-26 16:08:18 +01:00
a873cc4497 feat: update manifold markets code. 2022-10-26 14:36:23 +01:00
bc09456bb7 fix: hacky fix for typescript error 2022-10-26 13:53:11 +01:00
fc9c222a44 fix: catch metaculus errors
Current code isn't particularly resilient
to API changes.
2022-10-26 13:44:14 +01:00
83a01e6156 fix: Deal with <https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/8592>
Document this on the README, and add a few more to do items
2022-10-25 14:20:06 +02:00
346e070d0e fix: add typescript package 2022-10-25 13:24:52 +02:00
2518707d6a fix: Move to yarn
npm wasn't dealing well with large numbers of dependencies,
and the updating process is a bit clunky (requires me to
delete the node_modules directory each time). Trying yarn for now
2022-10-25 13:17:11 +02:00
ba84377eae fix: update dependencies
Metaforecast has been going down somewhat randomly. Hopefully
that fixes some of it.
2022-10-22 22:20:13 +01:00
f0f4188758 fix: remove netlify devdependencies
No longer needed, since we are using vercel.
2022-10-21 13:22:58 +01:00
a4b88e6023 fix: fix some outdated packages, I. 2022-10-21 13:20:43 +01:00
e8f1839a95 fix: hopefully finally fix StaticImageData error 2022-10-21 13:14:09 +01:00
63628c96fe Revert "fix: type error"
This reverts commit ed0c6e0588.
2022-10-21 13:11:49 +01:00
0d84c26e08 Revert "fix: try another fix for StaticImageData"
This reverts commit 1bf1cf9c83.
2022-10-21 13:11:12 +01:00
1bf1cf9c83 fix: try another fix for StaticImageData 2022-10-21 13:04:21 +01:00
ed0c6e0588 fix: type error
See: <https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788>
2022-10-21 12:57:53 +01:00
133db36d69 fix: autoprefixer error, node location error
See:
- <https://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/issues/36259>
- <https://nextjs.org/docs/messages/nested-middleware>
2022-10-21 12:53:03 +01:00
9766b49046 fix: update graphql dependencies. 2022-10-21 12:41:02 +01:00
a78918da61 upgrade: graphql packages 2022-10-09 13:11:48 +01:00
17ba3c1ce4 Revert "yolo: update all dependencies"
This reverts commit c48a80b0d2.
2022-10-09 13:06:17 +01:00
c48a80b0d2 yolo: update all dependencies 2022-10-09 13:05:12 +01:00
aff30ac0c4 fix: insight types 2022-10-09 12:52:01 +01:00
0cddbf69b0 fix: goodjudgmentopen type 2022-10-09 12:47:25 +01:00
e4a3f38ddf Merge branch 'master' of github.com:quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast 2022-10-09 12:42:09 +01:00
0e3cede352 Revert "feat: save Insight Prediction progress"
This reverts commit 3892db1157.
2022-10-09 12:41:16 +01:00
aeece45756 Revert "feat: save Insight Prediction progress"
This reverts commit 3892db1157.
It should make graphql fixing easier
2022-10-09 12:30:24 +01:00
3892db1157 feat: save Insight Prediction progress
Note that the fetcher is subject to this bug:
<https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/issues/94>

which means that it'll hit insight pretty hard.
2022-07-28 14:05:35 -04:00
69ab8f905c feat: wrange Insight Prediction API 2022-07-28 13:33:40 -04:00
a751caf8fb tweak: Hide Insight Prediction code for now
Asking the guy for less rate limiting in my api access.
2022-07-08 22:56:56 -04:00
494e8d74ad feat: Fix Good Judgment flow, start writting the Insight Parser.
Note that the Insight Prediction parser is in fact not complete
2022-07-08 22:25:11 -04:00
cb6f9239bf tweak: Update README.md 2022-07-08 20:42:31 -04:00
c9bfba8474 fix: Good Judgment workflow 2022-07-08 17:50:15 -04:00
acc85dad63 fix: update squiggle version 2022-06-18 12:46:01 -04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
f98958f27e
Merge pull request #92 from quantified-uncertainty/better-cleantext
Fix cleanText for metaculus
2022-06-05 00:42:04 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
7a5b7837f5
fix: better heading cleanups 2022-06-05 00:38:16 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
1a0e42147e
feat: cleanText improvements 2022-06-05 00:34:24 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
00615c1e63
feat: delete questions from frontpage on deletion 2022-06-03 20:03:13 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
ceeeff9681
fix: metaculus on groups 2022-06-03 16:54:45 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
5bf24a58ef
feat: metaculus fetcher skips unknown types instead of failing 2022-06-03 13:30:17 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
646397d8d4
fix: handle empty metaculus prediction 2022-06-03 12:01:02 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
2345b81350
feat: support "discussion" metaculus type 2022-06-03 11:43:35 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
de47956e29
feat: tune SLEEP_TIME for metaculus 2022-06-03 11:27:18 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
c96627e2cf
feat: skip metaculus questions earlier 2022-06-03 11:13:57 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
cc2257b626
feat: collapsible embed preview instead of button 2022-06-01 23:31:41 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
c051f0dc7d
Merge pull request #90 from quantified-uncertainty/embed-question-page-2
Embed question page 2
2022-06-01 00:34:53 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
c1330101e1
fix: types 2022-06-01 00:24:27 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
558c0964e4
feat: section anchors 2022-06-01 00:20:29 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
6e25f8bcd2
feat: question page style changes 2022-06-01 00:20:29 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
69e5a6ece5
feat: better question page layout (WIP) 2022-06-01 00:20:29 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
8fac309bf3
Merge pull request #88 from quantified-uncertainty/embed-question-page
Embed question page
2022-06-01 00:12:21 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
c3d144337b
Merge pull request #84 from quantified-uncertainty/metaculus-improvements
Metaculus fetcher improvements
2022-05-31 22:11:09 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
f5a3c16322
feat: metaculus group questions, description from api 2022-05-30 23:39:13 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
addf87b22a
feat: embed question pages 2022-05-26 17:11:19 +04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
19779bca02
fix: handle empty guesstimate descriptions 2022-05-26 17:02:26 +04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
1e357a75b8
fix: Stars positioning 2022-05-26 16:44:39 +04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
a6e6053c63
refactor: options code; also gql-gen & new timestamps 2022-05-26 16:28:50 +04:00
05c87e0e17 Merge branch 'master' of github.com:QURIresearch/metaforecast 2022-05-26 08:04:55 -04:00
b60316e450 tweak: Add code to get forecasts first fetched today
to contrib folder
2022-05-26 08:03:58 -04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
ab2efa8a88
feat: remove old timestamp field 2022-05-26 14:15:06 +04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
31555615a9
Merge pull request #86 from quantified-uncertainty/new-questions
feat: firstSeen, new questions in graphql
2022-05-26 12:50:26 +03:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
9c162fab9d
feat: expose fetchedStr and firstSeenStr 2022-05-26 13:47:54 +04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
a80bc51d58
Merge pull request #87 from nikosbosse/fix-star-link
Update link to the functions that show how stars are calculated
2022-05-22 16:57:59 +03:00
Nikos Bosse
5c65cdf2f7
Update link to the functions that show how stars are calculated
- now links to the folder where all the files for the individual platforms are located and explains how to find the code
- haven't checked the link works, so maybe needs a direct link to https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/tree/master/src/backend/platforms
2022-05-22 11:02:07 +02:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
5fdea80f8b
feat: firstSeen, new questions in graphql 2022-05-21 00:59:33 +04:00
40c6f57c11 fix: Deal with questions with no options
Like https://metaforecast.org/questions/metaculus-6326
2022-05-20 14:37:40 -04:00
020f0c0c5e tweak: Further question page changes
- Add estimate of likeliest option to top
- Or of event happening for yes/no questions
- Restore selection highlight from legend
  - But avoid weird color errors
- Add a bunch of parameters to QuestionOptions
  - I could just have added a flag for isInQuestionPage,
  - Not sure if this is the best way to go about this

I'm not particularly planning to continue with changes in the upcoming
days
2022-05-20 13:53:21 -04:00
7236e9662f tweak: chart padding 2022-05-19 20:54:47 -04:00
3afbb647da tweak: minor aesthetic chart tweaks 2022-05-19 19:48:31 -04:00
51bdfc915d tweak: minor aesthetic tweaks 2022-05-19 17:50:46 -04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
d684d074f5
feat: metaculus fetcher takes markdown description from js vars 2022-05-19 14:16:08 +04:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
4d736f711d
feat: metaculus validates api, supports --id cli arg 2022-05-19 14:16:08 +04:00
73 changed files with 11016 additions and 70536 deletions

1
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@ -31,6 +31,7 @@ yarn-error.log*
# yarn vs npm conflict
package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead
# yarn.lock
# Local Netlify folder
.netlify

7
LICENSE.md Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
Copyright 2023 Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

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@ -11,8 +11,8 @@ This repository includes the source code for both the website and the library th
### 1. Download this repository
```
$ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecasts
$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecast
$ npm install
```
@ -26,17 +26,28 @@ See [./docs/configuration.md](./docs/configuration.md) for details.
### 3. Actually run
`npm run cli` starts a local CLI which presents the user with choices. If you would like to skip that step, use the option name instead, e.g., `npm run cli wildeford`.
After installing and building (`npm run build`) the application, `npm run cli` starts a local CLI which presents the user with choices. If you would like to skip that step, use the option name instead, e.g., `npm run cli wildeford`.
![](./public/screenshot-cli.png)
`npm run next-dev` starts a Next.js dev server with the website on `http://localhost:3000`.
So overall this would look like
```
$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecast
$ npm install
$ npm run build
$ npm run cli
$ npm run next-dev
```
### 4. Example: download the metaforecasts database
```
$ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecasts
$ git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast
$ cd metaforecast
$ npm install
$ node src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js
```
@ -63,7 +74,7 @@ In general, if you want to integrate metaforecast into your service, we want to
## What are "stars" and how are they computed
Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars to assign [here](./src/backend/utils/stars.js).
Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars a forecast should get by looking at the function `calculateStars()` in the files for every platform [here](./src/backend/platforms).
With regards the quality, I am most uncertain about Smarkets, Hypermind, Ladbrokes and WilliamHill, as I haven't used them as much. Also note that, whatever other redeeming features they might have, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
@ -78,5 +89,22 @@ Overall, the services which we use are:
## Various notes
- This repository is released under the [MIT license](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT). See `LICENSE.md`
- Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary)
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions.
- The database is updated once a day, at 3:00 AM UTC, with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.ts`. The frontpage is updated after that, at 6:00 AM UTC with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/index.ts frontpage`. It's possible that either of these two operations makes the webpage briefly go down.
## To do
- [x] Update Metaculus and Manifold Markets fetchers
- [x] Add markets from [Insight Prediction](https://insightprediction.com/).
- [ ] Use <https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-midterms-special> to update stars calculation for Manifold.
- [ ] Add a few more snippets, with fetching individual questions, questions with histories, questions added within the last 24h to the /contrib folder (good first issue)
- [ ] Refactor code so that users can capture and push the question history chart to imgur (good first issue)
- [ ] Upgrade to [React 18](https://reactjs.org/blog/2022/03/08/react-18-upgrade-guide.html). This will require dealing with the workaround we used for [this issue](https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481)
- [ ] Add database of resolutions
- [ ] Allow users to embed predictions in the EA Forum/LessWrong (in progress)
- [ ] Find a long-term mantainer for this project
- [ ] Allow users to record their own predictions
- [ ] Release snapshots (I think @niplav is working on this)
- [ ] ...

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@ -24,93 +24,101 @@
"build": "prisma generate && next build",
"next-start": "next start",
"next-export": "next export",
"dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES"
"dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES",
"upgrade-interactive": "yarn upgrade-interactive --latest"
},
"dependencies": {
"@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.0",
"@graphql-yoga/node": "^2.1.0",
"@pothos/core": "^3.5.1",
"@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.4.0",
"@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.10.0",
"@prisma/client": "^3.11.1",
"@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.2.8",
"@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.0",
"@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.1",
"@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.3",
"@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.2",
"@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache": "^1.1.0",
"@pothos/core": "^3.22.8",
"@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.35.6",
"@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.28.6",
"@prisma/client": "^3.15.2",
"@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.5.1",
"@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.1",
"@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.7",
"@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.4",
"@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4",
"@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.2.1",
"@types/jsdom": "^16.2.14",
"@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0",
"@types/jsdom": "^16.2.15",
"@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"@types/react": "^17.0.39",
"@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.2",
"@types/react": "<18.0.0",
"@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.4",
"@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
"@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
"airtable": "^0.11.1",
"algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
"autoprefixer": "^10.1.0",
"axios": "^0.25.0",
"airtable": "^0.11.5",
"ajv": "^8.11.0",
"algoliasearch": "^4.14.2",
"autoprefixer": "10.4.5",
"axios": "^1.2.0",
"chroma-js": "^2.4.2",
"critters": "^0.0.16",
"date-fns": "^2.28.0",
"date-fns": "^2.29.3",
"dom-to-image": "^2.6.0",
"dotenv": "^16.0.0",
"dotenv": "^16.0.3",
"fetch": "^1.1.0",
"fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"fuse.js": "^6.4.6",
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.1.15",
"graphql": "^16.3.0",
"graphql-request": "^4.0.0",
"html-to-image": "^1.7.0",
"fuse.js": "^6.6.2",
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0",
"graphql": "^16.6.0",
"graphql-request": "^5.0.0",
"graphql-yoga": "^3.0.0-next.10",
"html-to-image": "^1.10.8",
"https": "^1.0.0",
"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0",
"jsdom": "^19.0.0",
"json2csv": "^5.0.5",
"multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.17",
"next": "12",
"next-plausible": "^3.1.6",
"next-urql": "^3.3.2",
"json2csv": "^5.0.7",
"multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.25",
"next": "^12.3.1",
"next-plausible": "^3.6.3",
"next-urql": "^3.3.3",
"nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"open": "^7.3.1",
"papaparse": "^5.3.0",
"pg": "^8.7.3",
"postcss": "^8.2.1",
"open": "^7.4.2",
"papaparse": "^5.3.2",
"pg": "^8.8.0",
"postcss": "^8.4.18",
"postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2",
"postcss-preset-env": "^7.3.2",
"prisma": "^3.11.1",
"postcss-preset-env": "^7.8.2",
"prisma": "^3.15.2",
"query-string": "^7.1.1",
"re-resizable": "^6.9.9",
"react": "^17.0.2",
"react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.3.1",
"react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.3",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.4.0",
"react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.1.0",
"react-dom": "^17.0.2",
"react-dropdown": "^1.9.2",
"react-hook-form": "^7.27.0",
"react-icons": "^4.2.0",
"react-is": "^18.0.0",
"react-markdown": "^8.0.0",
"react-dropdown": "^1.11.0",
"react-hook-form": "^7.38.0",
"react-icons": "^4.6.0",
"react-is": "^18.2.0",
"react-markdown": "^8.0.3",
"react-safe": "^1.3.0",
"react-select": "^5.2.2",
"react-select": "^5.5.4",
"remark-gfm": "^3.0.1",
"tabletojson": "^2.0.4",
"tailwindcss": "^3.0.22",
"tabletojson": "^2.0.7",
"tailwindcss": "^3.2.0",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3",
"ts-node": "^10.7.0",
"ts-node": "^10.9.1",
"tunnel": "^0.0.6",
"urql": "^2.2.0",
"urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.5",
"victory": "^36.3.2"
"urql": "^2.2.3",
"urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.6",
"victory": "^36.6.8"
},
"resolutions": {
"@types/react": "<18.0.0"
},
"devDependencies": {
"@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.6.2",
"@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.1.1",
"@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.2.9",
"@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.4.1",
"@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.2.8",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.4.8",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.3.5",
"@netlify/plugin-nextjs": "^4.2.4",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.2.1",
"@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.13.7",
"@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.2.1",
"@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.4.3",
"@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.5.1",
"@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.3.5",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.7.5",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.5.5",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.5.0",
"@types/pg": "^8.6.5",
"netlify-cli": "^9.13.6"
"eslint": "^8.25.0",
"eslint-config-next": "^12.3.1",
"typescript": "4.9.3"
}
}

View File

@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
-- questions
ALTER TABLE "questions"
ADD COLUMN "fetched" TIMESTAMP(6),
ADD COLUMN "first_seen" TIMESTAMP(6);
UPDATE "questions"
SET "fetched" = "timestamp", "first_seen" = "timestamp";
ALTER TABLE "questions"
ALTER COLUMN "fetched" SET NOT NULL,
ALTER COLUMN "first_seen" SET NOT NULL;
-- history
ALTER TABLE "history"
ADD COLUMN "fetched" TIMESTAMP(6);
UPDATE "history" SET "fetched" = "timestamp";
ALTER TABLE "history"
ALTER COLUMN "fetched" SET NOT NULL;
-- populate first_seen
UPDATE questions
SET "first_seen" = h.fs
FROM (
SELECT id, MIN(fetched) AS fs FROM history GROUP BY id
) as h
WHERE questions.id = h.id;

View File

@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
-- CreateIndex
CREATE INDEX "history_platform_idx" ON "history"("platform");
-- CreateIndex
CREATE INDEX "history_fetched_idx" ON "history"("fetched");
-- CreateIndex
CREATE INDEX "questions_platform_idx" ON "questions"("platform");
-- CreateIndex
CREATE INDEX "questions_fetched_idx" ON "questions"("fetched");
-- CreateIndex
CREATE INDEX "questions_first_seen_idx" ON "questions"("first_seen");

View File

@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
/*
Warnings:
- You are about to drop the column `timestamp` on the `history` table. All the data in the column will be lost.
- You are about to drop the column `timestamp` on the `questions` table. All the data in the column will be lost.
*/
-- AlterTable
ALTER TABLE "history" DROP COLUMN "timestamp";
-- AlterTable
ALTER TABLE "questions" DROP COLUMN "timestamp";

View File

@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
-- DropForeignKey
ALTER TABLE "FrontpageId" DROP CONSTRAINT "FrontpageId_id_fkey";
-- AddForeignKey
ALTER TABLE "FrontpageId" ADD CONSTRAINT "FrontpageId_id_fkey" FOREIGN KEY ("id") REFERENCES "questions"("id") ON DELETE CASCADE ON UPDATE CASCADE;

View File

@ -24,24 +24,6 @@ model Dashboard {
@@map("dashboards")
}
model History {
id String
idref String?
question Question? @relation(fields: [idref], references: [id], onDelete: SetNull, onUpdate: Restrict)
title String
url String
platform String
description String
options Json
timestamp DateTime @db.Timestamp(6)
qualityindicators Json
extra Json
pk Int @id @default(autoincrement())
@@index([id])
@@map("history")
}
model Question {
/// E.g. "fantasyscotus-580"
id String @id
@ -68,7 +50,8 @@ model Question {
// }
// ]
options Json
timestamp DateTime @db.Timestamp(6)
fetched DateTime @db.Timestamp(6)
firstSeen DateTime @map("first_seen") @db.Timestamp(6)
// {
// "numforecasts": 120,
@ -80,10 +63,33 @@ model Question {
onFrontpage FrontpageId?
history History[]
@@index([platform])
@@index([fetched])
@@index([firstSeen])
@@map("questions")
}
model History {
id String
idref String?
question Question? @relation(fields: [idref], references: [id], onDelete: SetNull, onUpdate: Restrict)
title String
url String
platform String
description String
options Json
fetched DateTime @db.Timestamp(6)
qualityindicators Json
extra Json
pk Int @id @default(autoincrement())
@@index([id])
@@index([platform])
@@index([fetched])
@@map("history")
}
model FrontpageId {
question Question @relation(fields: [id], references: [id])
question Question @relation(fields: [id], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade)
id String @unique
}

View File

@ -41,6 +41,14 @@ scalar Date
type History implements QuestionShape {
description: String!
"""Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
fetched: Date!
"""
Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format
"""
fetchedStr: String!
"""History items are identified by their integer ids"""
id: ID!
options: [ProbabilityOption!]!
@ -50,8 +58,8 @@ type History implements QuestionShape {
"""Unique string which identifies the question"""
questionId: ID!
"""Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
timestamp: Date!
"""Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
timestamp: Date! @deprecated(reason: "Renamed to `fetched`")
title: String!
"""
@ -112,15 +120,15 @@ type QualityIndicators {
type Query {
"""Look up a single dashboard by its id"""
dashboard(id: ID!): Dashboard!
dashboard(id: ID!): Dashboard
"""Get a list of questions that are currently on the frontpage"""
frontpage: [Question!]!
platforms: [Platform!]!
"""Look up a single question by its id"""
question(id: ID!): Question!
questions(after: String, before: String, first: Int, last: Int): QueryQuestionsConnection!
question(id: ID!): Question
questions(after: String, before: String, first: Int, last: Int, orderBy: QuestionsOrderBy): QueryQuestionsConnection!
"""
Search for questions; uses Algolia instead of the primary metaforecast database
@ -140,6 +148,22 @@ type QueryQuestionsConnectionEdge {
type Question implements QuestionShape {
description: String!
"""Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
fetched: Date!
"""
Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format
"""
fetchedStr: String!
"""First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
firstSeen: Date!
"""
First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format
"""
firstSeenStr: String!
history: [History!]!
"""Unique string which identifies the question"""
@ -148,8 +172,8 @@ type Question implements QuestionShape {
platform: Platform!
qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators!
"""Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
timestamp: Date!
"""Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
timestamp: Date! @deprecated(reason: "Renamed to `fetched`")
title: String!
"""
@ -161,12 +185,20 @@ type Question implements QuestionShape {
interface QuestionShape {
description: String!
"""Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
fetched: Date!
"""
Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format
"""
fetchedStr: String!
options: [ProbabilityOption!]!
platform: Platform!
qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators!
"""Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
timestamp: Date!
"""Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question"""
timestamp: Date! @deprecated(reason: "Renamed to `fetched`")
title: String!
"""
@ -175,6 +207,10 @@ interface QuestionShape {
url: String!
}
enum QuestionsOrderBy {
FIRST_SEEN_DESC
}
input SearchInput {
"""List of platform ids to filter by"""
forecastingPlatforms: [String!]

View File

@ -22,7 +22,8 @@ let buildQuery = (endCursor) => `{
numForecasts
stars
}
timestamp
firstSeenStr
fetchedStr
}
}
pageInfo {

View File

@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs";
import axios from "axios";
/* Definitions */
const VERBOSE = true;
let ISO_DATE_TODAY = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
let print = (message) => (VERBOSE ? console.log(message) : null);
let graphQLendpoint = "https://metaforecast.org/api/graphql";
let buildQuery = (endCursor) => `{
questions(first: 1000 ${
!!endCursor ? `after: "${endCursor}"` : ""
} orderBy: FIRST_SEEN_DESC) {
edges {
node {
id
title
url
description
options {
name
probability
}
qualityIndicators {
numForecasts
stars
}
firstSeenStr
fetchedStr
}
}
pageInfo {
endCursor
startCursor
}
}
}
`;
/* Support functions */
let getSomeMetaforecastPredictions = async (query) => {
let response = await axios({
url: graphQLendpoint,
method: "POST",
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
data: JSON.stringify({ query: query }),
})
.then((res) => res.data)
.then((res) => res.data); // not a typo
return response;
};
let save = (questions) => {
print("Saving Results");
fs.writeFileSync("forecasts-today.json", JSON.stringify(questions, null, 4));
};
let getNodes = (questions) => {
let edges = questions.edges;
let nodes = edges.map((edge) => edge.node);
return nodes;
};
// main
let getAllMetaforecastPredictions = async () => {
print("Fetching forecasts");
let results = [];
let firstQuery = await getSomeMetaforecastPredictions(buildQuery());
let nodes = getNodes(firstQuery.questions);
let nodesToday = nodes.filter(
(node) => node.firstSeenStr.slice(0, 10) == ISO_DATE_TODAY
);
results.push(...nodesToday);
let endCursor = firstQuery.questions.pageInfo.endCursor;
while (endCursor && nodesToday.length > 0) {
print("Cursor: " + endCursor);
let queryResults = await getSomeMetaforecastPredictions(
buildQuery(endCursor)
);
let nodes = getNodes(queryResults.questions);
nodesToday = nodes.filter(
(node) => node.firstSeenStr.slice(0, 10) == ISO_DATE_TODAY
);
results.push(...nodesToday);
endCursor = queryResults.questions.pageInfo.endCursor;
}
//results = results.map((result) => result.node);
save(results);
return results;
};
getAllMetaforecastPredictions();

8
src/Global.d.ts vendored Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
// Workaround related to: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788
// https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788#issuecomment-1000595524
declare type StaticImageData = {
src: string;
height: number;
width: number;
placeholder?: string;
};

View File

@ -1,9 +1,12 @@
import { platforms } from "../platforms/registry";
import { getPlatforms } from "../platforms/registry";
import { executeJobByName } from "./jobs";
/* Do everything */
export async function doEverything() {
let jobNames = [...platforms.map((platform) => platform.name), "algolia"];
let jobNames = [
...getPlatforms().map((platform) => platform.name),
"algolia",
];
console.log("");
console.log("");

View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
import { doEverything } from "../flow/doEverything";
import { rebuildFrontpage } from "../frontpage";
import { processPlatform } from "../platforms";
import { platforms } from "../platforms/registry";
import { getPlatforms } from "../platforms/registry";
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "../utils/algolia";
import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ interface Job<ArgNames extends string = ""> {
}
export const jobs: Job<string>[] = [
...platforms.map((platform) => ({
...getPlatforms().map((platform) => ({
name: platform.name,
message: `Download predictions from ${platform.name}`,
...(platform.version === "v2" ? { args: platform.fetcherArgs } : {}),

View File

@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ export async function rebuildFrontpage() {
AND questions.description != ''
AND JSONB_ARRAY_LENGTH(questions.options) > 0
GROUP BY questions.id
HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT history.timestamp) >= 7
HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT history.fetched) >= 7
ORDER BY RANDOM() LIMIT 50
`;

View File

@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
#!/bin/bash
cd /home/loki/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecast/metaforecast-monorepo
/home/loki/.nvm/versions/node/v17.5.0/bin/npm run cli 3 > ../last-superforecast-fetch.txt
/home/loki/.nvm/versions/node/v16.15.0/lib/node_modules/npm/bin/npm-cli.js run cli goodjudgment > ../last-superforecast-fetch.txt

View File

@ -79,7 +79,7 @@ export const givewellopenphil: Platform = {
const dataWithDate = data.map((datum: any) => ({
...datum,
platform: platformName,
timestamp: new Date("2021-02-23"),
// timestamp: new Date("2021-02-23"),
}));
return dataWithDate;
},

View File

@ -1,10 +1,11 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson";
import { average } from "../../utils";
import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
import {average} from "../../utils";
import {hash} from "../utils/hash";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "./";
import {FullQuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgment";
@ -41,21 +42,19 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
// },
// });
const content = await axios
.request({
const content = await axios.request({
url: "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
method: "get",
headers: {
"User-Agent": "Chrome",
"User-Agent": "Chrome"
},
// agent,
// port: 80,
})
.then((query) => query.data);
}).then((query) => query.data);
// Processing
let results: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, { stripHtmlFromCells: false });
let jsonTable = Tabletojson.convert(content, {stripHtmlFromCells: false});
jsonTable.shift(); // deletes first element
jsonTable.pop(); // deletes last element
@ -63,38 +62,21 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let title = table[0]["0"].split("\t\t\t").splice(3)[0];
if (title != undefined) {
title = title.replaceAll("</a>", "");
const id = `${platformName}-${hash(title)}`;
const description = table
.filter((row: any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:"))
.map((row: any) => row["0"])
.map((text: any) =>
text
.split("BACKGROUND:")[1]
.split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0]
.split("AT A GLANCE")[0]
.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n")
.split("\n")
.slice(3)
.join(" ")
.replaceAll(" ", "")
.replaceAll("<br> ", "")
)[0];
const options = table
.filter((row: any) => "4" in row)
.map((row: any) => ({
name: row["2"]
.split('<span class="qTitle">')[1]
.replace("</span>", ""),
const id = `${platformName}-${
hash(title)
}`;
const description = table.filter((row : any) => row["0"].includes("BACKGROUND:")).map((row : any) => row["0"]).map((text : any) => text.split("BACKGROUND:")[1].split("Examples of Superforecaster")[0].split("AT A GLANCE")[0].replaceAll("\n\n", "\n").split("\n").slice(3).join(" ").replaceAll(" ", "").replaceAll("<br> ", ""))[0];
const options = table.filter((row : any) => "4" in row).map((row : any) => ({
name: row["2"].split('<span class="qTitle">')[1].replace("</span>", ""),
probability: Number(row["3"].split("%")[0]) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
type: "PROBABILITY"
}));
let analysis = table.filter((row: any) =>
row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false
);
let analysis = table.filter((row : any) => row[0] ? row[0].toLowerCase().includes("commentary") : false);
// "Examples of Superforecaster Commentary" / Analysis
// The following is necessary twice, because we want to check if there is an empty list, and then get the first element of the first element of the list.
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : "";
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : ""; // not a duplicate
analysis = analysis ? analysis[0] : "";
// not a duplicate
// console.log(analysis)
let standardObj: FetchedQuestion = {
id,
@ -104,16 +86,14 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
options,
qualityindicators: {},
extra: {
superforecastercommentary: analysis || "",
},
superforecastercommentary: analysis || ""
}
};
results.push(standardObj);
}
}
console.log(
"Failing is not unexpected; see utils/pullSuperforecastsManually.sh/js"
);
console.log("Failing is not unexpected; see utils/pullSuperforecastsManually.sh/js");
return results;
},
@ -121,8 +101,8 @@ export const goodjudgment: Platform = {
let nuno = () => 4;
let eli = () => 4;
let misha = () => 3.5;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(), misha()])
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); // , eli(), misha()])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
},
}
};

View File

@ -1,12 +1,13 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson";
import { average } from "../../utils";
import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
import {average} from "../../utils";
import {applyIfSecretExists} from "../utils/getSecrets";
import {sleep} from "../utils/sleep";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "./";
import {FullQuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "goodjudgmentopen";
@ -17,125 +18,98 @@ const annoyingPromptUrls = [
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1779-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters",
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2246-are-there-any-forecasting-tips-tricks-and-experiences-you-would-like-to-share-and-or-discuss-with-your-fellow-forecasters-2022-thread",
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2237-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen",
"https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2437-what-forecasting-questions-should-we-ask-what-questions-would-you-like-to-forecast-on-gjopen"
];
const DEBUG_MODE: "on" | "off" = "off"; // "on"
const id = () => 0;
/* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(page: number, cookie: string) {
function cleanDescription(text : string) {
let md = toMarkdown(text);
let result = md.replaceAll("---", "-").replaceAll(" ", " ");
return result;
}
async function fetchPage(page : number, cookie : string) {
const response: string = await axios({
url: htmlEndPoint + page,
method: "GET",
headers: {
Cookie: cookie,
},
Cookie: cookie
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
//console.log(response)
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
async function fetchStats(questionUrl: string, cookie: string) {
async function fetchStats(questionUrl : string, cookie : string) {
let response: string = await axios({
url: questionUrl + "/stats",
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "text/html",
Cookie: cookie,
Referer: questionUrl,
},
Referer: questionUrl
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
//console.log(response)
// Is binary?
let isbinary = response.includes("binary?&quot;:true");
if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) {
throw Error("Not logged in");
}
// Init
let options: FullQuestionOption[] = [];
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
if (isbinary) {
// Crowd percentage
// Parse the embedded json
let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter((str) => str.includes("<h3>"))[0];
// console.log(h3Element)
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0];
let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100;
options.push(
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: +(1 - probability).toFixed(2), // avoids floating point shenanigans
type: "PROBABILITY",
let jsonLines = htmlElements.filter((element) => element.includes("data-react-props"));
let embeddedJsons = jsonLines.map((jsonLine, i) => {
let innerJSONasHTML = jsonLine.split('data-react-props="')[1].split('"')[0];
let json = JSON.parse(innerJSONasHTML.replaceAll("&quot;", '"'));
return json;
});
let firstEmbeddedJson = embeddedJsons[0];
let title = firstEmbeddedJson.question.name;
let description = cleanDescription(firstEmbeddedJson.question.description);
let comments_count = firstEmbeddedJson.question.comments_count;
let numforecasters = firstEmbeddedJson.question.predictors_count;
let numforecasts = firstEmbeddedJson.question.prediction_sets_count;
let questionType = firstEmbeddedJson.question.type;
if (questionType.includes("Binary") || questionType.includes("NonExclusiveOpinionPoolQuestion") || questionType.includes("Forecast::Question") || ! questionType.includes("Forecast::MultiTimePeriodQuestion")) {
options = firstEmbeddedJson.question.answers.map((answer : any) => ({name: answer.name, probability: answer.normalized_probability, type: "PROBABILITY"}));
if (options.length == 1 && options[0].name == "Yes") {
let probabilityNo = options[0].probability > 1 ? 1 - options[0].probability / 100 : 1 - options[0].probability;
options.push({name: "No", probability: probabilityNo, type: "PROBABILITY"});
}
);
} else {
let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + response.split("tbody")[1] + "table>";
let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
options = firstTable.map((element: any) => ({
name: element["0"],
probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
type: "PROBABILITY",
}));
//console.log(optionsHtmlElement)
//console.log(options)
}
// Description
let descriptionraw = response.split(
`<div id="question-background" class="collapse smb">`
)[1];
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`</div>`)[0];
let descriptionprocessed2 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1);
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2
.split("\n")
.filter((string) => !string.includes("Confused? Check our"))
.join("\n");
let description = descriptionprocessed3;
// Number of forecasts
let numforecasts = response
.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1]
.split(",")[0];
//console.log(numforecasts)
// Number of predictors
let numforecasters = response
.split("predictors_count&quot;:")[1]
.split(",")[0];
//console.log(numpredictors)
let result = {
description,
options,
description: description,
options: options,
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
},
// this mismatches the code below, and needs to be fixed, but I'm doing typescript conversion and don't want to touch any logic for now
} as any;
comments_count: Number(comments_count)
}
};
// console.log(JSON.stringify(result, null, 4));
return result;
}
function isSignedIn(html: string) {
let isSignedInBool = !(
html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
html.includes("Sign up")
);
function isSignedIn(html : string) {
let isSignedInBool = !(html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") || html.includes("Sign up"));
// console.log(html)
if (!isSignedInBool) {
if (! isSignedInBool) {
console.log("Error: Not signed in.");
}
console.log(`is signed in? ${isSignedInBool ? "yes" : "no"}`);
console.log(`is signed in? ${
isSignedInBool ? "yes" : "no"
}`);
return isSignedInBool;
}
function reachedEnd(html: string) {
function reachedEnd(html : string) {
let reachedEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
if (reachedEndBool) {
//console.log(html)
if (reachedEndBool) { // console.log(html)
}
console.log(`Reached end? ${reachedEndBool}`);
return reachedEndBool;
@ -143,14 +117,15 @@ function reachedEnd(html: string) {
/* Body */
async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie : string) {
let i = 1;
let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
let results = [];
let init = Date.now();
// console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.")
while (!reachedEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
console.log("Page #1")
while (! reachedEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
let htmlLines = response.split("\n");
DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach((line) => console.log(line)) : id();
let h5elements = htmlLines.filter((str) => str.includes("<h5> <a href="));
@ -159,20 +134,19 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
for (let h5element of h5elements) {
let h5elementSplit = h5element.split('"><span>');
let url = h5elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1];
if (!annoyingPromptUrls.includes(url)) {
if (! annoyingPromptUrls.includes(url)) {
let title = h5elementSplit[1].replace("</span></a></h5>", "");
await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000); // don't be as noticeable
try {
let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
if (moreinfo.isbinary) {
if (!moreinfo.crowdpercentage) {
// then request again.
/*if (moreinfo.isbinary) {
if (! moreinfo.crowdpercentage) { // then request again.
moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
}
}
}*/
let questionNumRegex = new RegExp("questions/([0-9]+)");
const questionNumMatch = url.match(questionNumRegex);
if (!questionNumMatch) {
if (! questionNumMatch) {
throw new Error(`Couldn't find question num in ${url}`);
}
let questionNum = questionNumMatch[1];
@ -182,19 +156,19 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
title: title,
url: url,
platform: platformName,
...moreinfo,
... moreinfo
};
if (j % 30 == 0 || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
console.log(`Page #${i}`);
console.log(question);
} else {
console.log(question.title)
}
// console.log(question)
results.push(question);
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`);
}
}
j = j + 1;
@ -207,9 +181,7 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
console.log(
`We encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json`
);
console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json`);
}
}
@ -220,9 +192,11 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie: string) {
let end = Date.now();
let difference = end - init;
console.log(
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
);
console.log(`Took ${
difference / 1000
} seconds, or ${
difference / (1000 * 60)
} minutes.`);
return results;
}
@ -234,23 +208,18 @@ export const goodjudgmentopen: Platform = {
version: "v1",
async fetcher() {
let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE;
return (await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null;
return(await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner)) || null;
},
calculateStars(data) {
let minProbability = Math.min(
...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
);
let maxProbability = Math.max(
...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0)
);
let minProbability = Math.min(...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0));
let maxProbability = Math.max(...data.options.map((option) => option.probability || 0));
let nuno = () => ((data.qualityindicators.numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2);
let eli = () => 3;
let misha = () =>
minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
let misha = () => minProbability > 0.1 || maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
},
}
};

View File

@ -2,9 +2,8 @@ import axios from "axios";
import { Question } from "@prisma/client";
import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
import { AlgoliaQuestion } from "../utils/algolia";
import { FetchedQuestion, Platform, prepareQuestion } from "./";
import { AlgoliaQuestion, questionToAlgoliaQuestion } from "../utils/algolia";
import { FetchedQuestion, Platform, prepareQuestion, upsertSingleQuestion } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const searchEndpoint =
@ -23,7 +22,7 @@ const modelToQuestion = (model: any): ReturnType<typeof prepareQuestion> => {
title: model.name,
url: `https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/${model.id}`,
// timestamp,
description,
description: description || "",
options: [],
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: 1,
@ -55,10 +54,11 @@ async function search(query: string): Promise<AlgoliaQuestion[]> {
const models: any[] = response.data.hits;
const mappedModels: AlgoliaQuestion[] = models.map((model) => {
const q = modelToQuestion(model);
return {
return questionToAlgoliaQuestion({
...q,
timestamp: String(q.timestamp),
};
fetched: new Date(),
firstSeen: new Date(),
});
});
// filter for duplicates. Surprisingly common.
@ -76,12 +76,8 @@ async function search(query: string): Promise<AlgoliaQuestion[]> {
const fetchQuestion = async (id: number): Promise<Question> => {
const response = await axios({ url: `${apiEndpoint}/spaces/${id}` });
let q = modelToQuestion(response.data);
return await prisma.question.upsert({
where: { id: q.id },
create: q,
update: q,
});
const q = modelToQuestion(response.data);
return await upsertSingleQuestion(q);
};
export const guesstimate: Platform & {
@ -94,5 +90,5 @@ export const guesstimate: Platform & {
search,
version: "v1",
fetchQuestion,
calculateStars: (q) => (q.description.length > 250 ? 2 : 1),
calculateStars: (q) => (q.description?.length > 250 ? 2 : 1),
};

View File

@ -28,9 +28,13 @@ export interface QualityIndicators {
export type FetchedQuestion = Omit<
Question,
"extra" | "qualityindicators" | "timestamp" | "platform" | "options"
| "extra"
| "qualityindicators"
| "fetched"
| "firstSeen"
| "platform"
| "options"
> & {
timestamp?: Date;
extra?: object; // required in DB but annoying to return empty; also this is slightly stricter than Prisma's JsonValue
options: QuestionOption[]; // stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue
qualityindicators: Omit<QualityIndicators, "stars">; // slightly stronger type than Prisma's JsonValue
@ -78,8 +82,9 @@ export type Platform<ArgNames extends string = ""> = {
// So here we build a new type which should be ok to use both in place of prisma's Question type and as an input to its update or create methods.
type PreparedQuestion = Omit<
Question,
"extra" | "qualityindicators" | "options"
"extra" | "qualityindicators" | "options" | "fetched" | "firstSeen"
> & {
fetched: Date;
extra: NonNullable<Question["extra"]>;
qualityindicators: NonNullable<Question["qualityindicators"]>;
options: NonNullable<Question["options"]>;
@ -91,8 +96,8 @@ export const prepareQuestion = (
): PreparedQuestion => {
return {
extra: {},
timestamp: new Date(),
...q,
fetched: new Date(),
platform: platform.name,
qualityindicators: {
...q.qualityindicators,
@ -101,6 +106,20 @@ export const prepareQuestion = (
};
};
export const upsertSingleQuestion = async (
q: PreparedQuestion
): Promise<Question> => {
return await prisma.question.upsert({
where: { id: q.id },
create: {
...q,
firstSeen: new Date(),
},
update: q,
});
// TODO - update history?
};
export const processPlatform = async <T extends string = "">(
platform: Platform<T>,
args?: { [k in T]: string }
@ -144,9 +163,9 @@ export const processPlatform = async <T extends string = "">(
for (const q of fetchedQuestions.map((q) => prepareQuestion(q, platform))) {
if (oldIdsSet.has(q.id)) {
// TODO - check if question has changed for better performance
updatedQuestions.push(q);
} else {
// TODO - check if question has changed for better performance
createdQuestions.push(q);
}
}
@ -154,7 +173,10 @@ export const processPlatform = async <T extends string = "">(
const stats: { created?: number; updated?: number; deleted?: number } = {};
await prisma.question.createMany({
data: createdQuestions,
data: createdQuestions.map((q) => ({
...q,
firstSeen: new Date(),
})),
});
stats.created = createdQuestions.length;

View File

@ -0,0 +1,339 @@
/* Imports */
import {or} from "ajv/dist/compile/codegen";
import axios from "axios";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from ".";
import {QuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { average } from "../../utils";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "insight";
const marketsEnpoint = "https://insightprediction.com/api/markets?orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=asc";
const getMarketEndpoint = (id : number) => `https://insightprediction.com/api/markets/${id}`;
const SPORTS_CATEGORIES = [
'World Cup',
'MLB',
'Futures',
'Sports',
'EPL',
'Golf',
'NHL',
'College Football'
]
/* Support functions */
// Stubs
const excludeMarketFromTitle = (title : any) => {
if (!!title) {
return title.includes(" vs ") || title.includes(" Over: ") || title.includes("NFL") || title.includes("Will there be a first time winner") || title.includes("Premier League")
} else {
return true
}
}
const hasActiveYesNoOrderBook = (orderbook : any) => {
if (!!orderbook) {
let yes = !!orderbook.yes && !!orderbook.yes.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.buy) && orderbook.yes.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.yes.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.sell) && orderbook.yes.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let no = !!orderbook.no && !!orderbook.no.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.buy) && orderbook.no.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.no.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.sell) && orderbook.no.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.sell[0].price
return yes && no
} else {
return false
}
}
const isBinaryQuestion = (data : any) => Array.isArray(data) && data.length == 1
const geomMean = (a : number, b : number) => Math.sqrt(a * b)
const processRelativeUrls = (a : string) => a.replaceAll("] (/", "](http://insightprediction.com/").replaceAll("](/", "](http://insightprediction.com/")
const processDescriptionText = (text : any) => {
if (typeof text === 'string') {
return processRelativeUrls(toMarkdown(text))
} else {
return ""
}
}
const getOrderbookPrize = (orderbook : any) => {
let yes_min_cents = orderbook.yes.buy[0].price
let yes_max_cents = orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let yes_min = Number(yes_min_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_max = Number(yes_max_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_price_orderbook = geomMean(yes_min, yes_max)
return yes_price_orderbook
}
const getAnswerProbability = (answer : any) => {
let orderbook = answer.orderbook
let latest_yes_price = answer.latest_yes_price
if (!! orderbook && hasActiveYesNoOrderBook(orderbook)) {
let yes_price_orderbook = getOrderbookPrize(orderbook)
let yes_probability = (latest_yes_price ? geomMean(latest_yes_price, yes_price_orderbook) : yes_price_orderbook) / 100
return yes_probability
} else if (!! latest_yes_price) {
return latest_yes_price / 100
} else {
return -1
}
}
// Fetching
async function fetchPage(bearer: string, pageNum: number) {
let pageUrl = `${marketsEnpoint}&page=${pageNum}`
const response = await axios({
url: pageUrl, // &orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=desc`,
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response);
return response;
}
async function fetchMarket(bearer: string, marketId: number) {
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
const processMarket = (market : any) => {
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = []
if (!!market && !!market.answer && !!market.answer.data) {
let data = market.answer.data
if (isBinaryQuestion(data)) { // Binary questions
let answer = data[0]
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
}
} else { // non binary question
for (let answer of data) {
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
let newOption: QuestionOption = ({
name: String(answer.title),
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
});
options.push(newOption)
}
}
}
if (!! options && Array.isArray(options) && options.length > 0) {
const id = `${platformName}-${
market.id
}`
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id: id,
title: market.title,
url: market.url,
description: processDescriptionText(market.rules),
options,
qualityindicators: market.coin_id == "USD" ? (
{volume: market.volume}
) : ({})
};
return result;
}
}
return null
}
async function fetchAllMarkets(bearer: string) {
let pageNum = 1
let markets = []
let categories = []
let isEnd = false
while (! isEnd) {
if(pageNum % 20 == 0){
console.log(`Fetching page #${pageNum}`) // : ${pageUrl}
}
let page = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum)
// console.log(JSON.stringify(page, null, 2))
let data = page.data
if (!! data && Array.isArray(data) && data.length > 0) {
let lastMarket = data[data.length - 1]
let isLastMarketResolved = lastMarket.is_resolved
if (isLastMarketResolved == true) {
isEnd = true
}
let newMarkets = data.filter(market => !market.is_resolved && !market.is_expired && ! excludeMarketFromTitle(market.title))
for (let initMarketData of newMarkets) {
let fullMarketDataResponse = await fetchMarket(bearer, initMarketData.id)
let fullMarketData = fullMarketDataResponse.data
let processedMarketData = processMarket(fullMarketData)
if (processedMarketData != null && ! SPORTS_CATEGORIES.includes(fullMarketData.category)) {
console.log(`- Adding: ${
fullMarketData.title
}`)
console.group()
console.log(fullMarketData)
console.log(JSON.stringify(processedMarketData, null, 2))
console.groupEnd()
markets.push(processedMarketData)
}
let category = fullMarketData.category
categories.push(category)
}
} else {
isEnd = true
} pageNum = pageNum + 1
}
console.log(markets)
console.log(categories)
return markets
}
/*
async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer : string, marketId : number) {
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
async function fetchData(bearer : string) {
let pageNum = 1;
let reachedEnd = false;
let results = [];
while (! reachedEnd) {
let newPage = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum);
let newPageData = newPage.data;
let marketsFromPage = []
for (let market of newPageData) {
let response = await fetchQuestionStats(bearer, market.id);
let marketData = response.data
let marketAnswer = marketData.answer.data
delete marketData.answer
// These are the options and their prices.
let marketOptions = marketAnswer.map(answer => {
return({name: answer.title, probability: answer.latest_yes_price, type: "PROBABILITY"})
})
marketsFromPage.push({
... marketData,
options: marketOptions
});
}
let finalObject = marketsFromPage
console.log(`Page = #${pageNum}`);
// console.log(newPageData)
console.dir(finalObject, {depth: null});
results.push(... finalObject);
let newPagination = newPage.meta.pagination;
if (newPagination.total_pages == pageNum) {
reachedEnd = true;
} else {
pageNum = pageNum + 1;
}
}
return results
}
async function processPredictions(predictions : any[]) {
let results = await predictions.map((prediction) => {
const id = `${platformName}-${
prediction.id
}`;
const probability = prediction.probability;
const options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id,
title: prediction.title,
url: "https://example.com",
description: prediction.description,
options,
qualityindicators: {
// other: prediction.otherx,
// indicators: prediction.indicatorx,
}
};
return result;
});
return results; // resultsProcessed
}
*/
/* Body */
export const insight: Platform = {
name: platformName,
label: "Insight Prediction",
color: "#ff0000",
version: "v1",
async fetcher() {
let bearer = process.env.INSIGHT_BEARER;
if (!! bearer) {
let data = await fetchAllMarkets(bearer);
return data
} else {
throw Error("No INSIGHT_BEARER available in environment")
}
// let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; // await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
// return results;
},
calculateStars(data) {
let nuno = () => {
if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 10000){
return 4
} else if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 1000){
return 3
} else{
return 2
}
}
let eli = () => null;
let misha = () => null;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
}
};

View File

@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "manifold";
const endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
const ENDPOINT = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
// See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5
/* Support functions */
async function fetchData() {
async function fetchPage(endpoint: string) {
let response = await axios({
url: endpoint,
method: "GET",
@ -23,6 +23,31 @@ async function fetchData() {
return response;
}
async function fetchAllData(){
let endpoint = ENDPOINT
let end = false
let allData = []
let counter = 1
while(!end){
console.log(`Query #${counter}: ${endpoint}`)
let newData = await fetchPage(endpoint)
if(Array.isArray(newData)){
allData.push(...newData)
let hasReachedEnd = (newData.length == 0) || (newData[newData.length -1] == undefined) || (newData[newData.length -1].id == undefined)
if(!hasReachedEnd){
let lastId = newData[newData.length -1].id
endpoint = `${ENDPOINT}?before=${lastId}`
}else{
end = true
}
}else{
end = true
}
counter = counter +1
}
return allData
}
function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) {
console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`);
let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0);
@ -63,11 +88,11 @@ function processPredictions(predictions: any[]): FetchedQuestion[] {
id: id,
title: prediction.question,
url: prediction.url,
description: prediction.description,
description: prediction.description || "",
options,
qualityindicators: {
createdTime: prediction.createdTime,
volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days,
// volume7Days: prediction.volume7Days, // deprecated.
volume24Hours: prediction.volume24Hours,
pool: prediction.pool, // normally liquidity, but I don't actually want to show it.
},
@ -90,16 +115,16 @@ export const manifold: Platform = {
color: "#793466",
version: "v1",
async fetcher() {
let data = await fetchData();
let data = await fetchAllData();
let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
showStatistics(results);
return results;
},
calculateStars(data) {
let nuno = () =>
(data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 250 ||
(data.qualityindicators.volume24Hours || 0) > 100 ||
((data.qualityindicators.pool || 0) > 500 &&
(data.qualityindicators.volume7Days || 0) > 100)
(data.qualityindicators.volume24Hours || 0) > 50)
? 2
: 1;
let eli = () => null;

View File

@ -1,205 +0,0 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios";
import { average } from "../../utils";
import { sleep } from "../utils/sleep";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */
const platformName = "metaculus";
let now = new Date().toISOString();
let DEBUG_MODE = "off";
let SLEEP_TIME = 5000;
/* Support functions */
async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next: string) {
// Numbers about a given address: how many, how much, at what price, etc.
let response;
let data;
try {
response = await axios({
url: next,
method: "GET",
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
});
data = response.data;
} catch (error) {
console.log(`Error in async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(next)`);
console.log(error);
if (axios.isAxiosError(error)) {
if (error.response?.headers["retry-after"]) {
const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + SLEEP_TIME);
} else {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
}
}
} finally {
try {
response = await axios({
url: next,
method: "GET",
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
});
data = response.data;
} catch (error) {
console.log(error);
return { results: [] };
}
}
// console.log(response)
return data;
}
async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug: string) {
try {
let response = await axios({
method: "get",
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug,
}).then((response) => response.data);
return response;
} catch (error) {
console.log(`Error in: fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription`);
console.log(
`We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page. Trying again`
);
if (
axios.isAxiosError(error) &&
typeof error.response != "undefined" &&
typeof error.response.headers != "undefined" &&
typeof error.response.headers["retry-after"] != "undefined"
) {
const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + SLEEP_TIME);
} else {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
}
try {
let response = await axios({
method: "get",
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug,
}).then((response) => response.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
} catch (error) {
console.log(
`We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page.`
);
console.log("Error", error);
throw "Giving up";
}
}
}
export const metaculus: Platform = {
name: platformName,
label: "Metaculus",
color: "#006669",
version: "v1",
async fetcher() {
// let metaculusQuestionsInit = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(1)
// let numQueries = Math.round(Number(metaculusQuestionsInit.count) / 20)
// console.log(`Downloading... This might take a while. Total number of queries: ${numQueries}`)
// for (let i = 4; i <= numQueries; i++) { // change numQueries to 10 if one want to just test }
let all_questions = [];
let next = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/";
let i = 1;
while (next) {
if (i % 20 == 0) {
console.log("Sleeping for 500ms");
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
}
console.log(`\nQuery #${i}`);
let metaculusQuestions = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(next);
let results = metaculusQuestions.results;
let j = false;
for (let result of results) {
if (result.publish_time < now && now < result.resolve_time) {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME / 2);
let questionPage = await fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(
result.page_url
);
if (!questionPage.includes("A public prediction by")) {
// console.log(questionPage)
let descriptionraw = questionPage.split(
`<div class="content" ng-bind-html-compile="qctrl.question.description_html">`
)[1]; //.split(`<div class="question__content">`)[1]
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("</div>")[0];
let descriptionprocessed2 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1);
let description = descriptionprocessed2;
let isbinary = result.possibilities.type == "binary";
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
if (isbinary) {
let probability = Number(result.community_prediction.full.q2);
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
{
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
];
}
let id = `${platformName}-${result.id}`;
let interestingInfo: FetchedQuestion = {
id,
title: result.title,
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
description,
options,
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: Number(result.number_of_predictions),
},
extra: {
resolution_data: {
publish_time: result.publish_time,
resolution: result.resolution,
close_time: result.close_time,
resolve_time: result.resolve_time,
},
},
//"status": result.status,
//"publish_time": result.publish_time,
//"close_time": result.close_time,
//"type": result.possibilities.type, // We want binary ones here.
//"last_activity_time": result.last_activity_time,
};
if (Number(result.number_of_predictions) >= 10) {
console.log(`- ${interestingInfo.title}`);
all_questions.push(interestingInfo);
if ((!j && i % 20 == 0) || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
console.log(interestingInfo);
j = true;
}
}
} else {
console.log("- [Skipping public prediction]");
}
}
}
next = metaculusQuestions.next;
i = i + 1;
}
return all_questions;
},
calculateStars(data) {
const { numforecasts } = data.qualityindicators;
let nuno = () =>
(numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
let eli = () => 3;
let misha = () => 3;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
},
};

View File

@ -0,0 +1,262 @@
import Ajv, { JTDDataType, ValidateFunction } from "ajv/dist/jtd";
import axios from "axios";
import { sleep } from "../../utils/sleep";
// Type examples:
// - group: https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/9866/
// - claim: https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/9668/
// - subquestion forecast: https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10069/
// - basic forecast: https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11005/
const RETRY_SLEEP_TIME = 5000;
const commonProps = {
id: {
type: "uint32",
},
title: {
type: "string",
},
} as const;
const predictableProps = {
publish_time: {
type: "string",
},
close_time: {
type: "string",
},
resolve_time: {
type: "string",
},
resolution: {
type: "float64",
nullable: true,
},
possibilities: {
properties: {
type: {
// Enum["binary", "continuous"], via https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84#discussion_r878240875
// but metaculus might add new values in the future and we don't want the fetcher to break
type: "string",
},
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
number_of_predictions: {
type: "uint32",
},
community_prediction: {
properties: {
full: {
// q1/q2/q3 can be missing, e.g. https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1633/
optionalProperties: {
q1: {
type: "float64",
},
q2: {
type: "float64",
},
q3: {
type: "float64",
},
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
},
nullable: true,
additionalProperties: true,
},
} as const;
const pageProps = {
page_url: {
type: "string",
},
group: {
type: "uint32",
nullable: true,
},
} as const;
// these are missing in /api2/questions/ requests, and building two schemas is too much pain
const optionalPageProps = {
description: {
type: "string",
},
description_html: {
type: "string",
},
} as const;
const questionSchema = {
discriminator: "type",
mapping: {
forecast: {
properties: {
...commonProps,
...pageProps,
...predictableProps,
},
optionalProperties: {
...optionalPageProps,
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
group: {
properties: {
...commonProps,
...pageProps,
},
optionalProperties: {
...optionalPageProps,
sub_questions: {
elements: {
properties: {
...commonProps,
...predictableProps,
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
},
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
// we're not interested in claims currently (but we should be?)
claim: {
properties: {
...commonProps,
...pageProps,
},
optionalProperties: {
...optionalPageProps,
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
discussion: {
optionalProperties: {
...optionalPageProps,
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
},
} as const;
const knownQuestionTypes = Object.keys(questionSchema.mapping);
const shallowMultipleQuestionsSchema = {
properties: {
results: {
elements: {
properties: {
type: {
type: "string",
},
},
additionalProperties: true,
},
},
next: {
type: "string",
nullable: true,
},
},
additionalProperties: true,
} as const;
export type ApiCommon = JTDDataType<{
properties: typeof commonProps;
}>;
export type ApiPredictable = JTDDataType<{
properties: typeof predictableProps;
}>;
export type ApiQuestion = JTDDataType<typeof questionSchema>;
type ApiShallowMultipleQuestions = JTDDataType<
typeof shallowMultipleQuestionsSchema
>;
export type ApiMultipleQuestions = {
results: ApiQuestion[];
next: ApiShallowMultipleQuestions["next"]; // Omit<ApiShallowMultipleQuestions, "results"> doesn't work correctly here
};
const validateQuestion = new Ajv().compile<ApiQuestion>(questionSchema);
const validateShallowMultipleQuestions =
new Ajv().compile<ApiShallowMultipleQuestions>(
shallowMultipleQuestionsSchema
);
async function fetchWithRetries<T = unknown>(url: string): Promise<T> {
try {
const response = await axios.get<T>(url);
return response.data;
} catch (error) {
console.log(`Error while fetching ${url}`);
console.log(error);
if (axios.isAxiosError(error)) {
if (error.response?.headers["retry-after"]) {
const timeout = error.response.headers["retry-after"];
console.log(`Timeout: ${timeout}`);
await sleep(Number(timeout) * 1000 + 1000);
} else {
await sleep(RETRY_SLEEP_TIME);
}
}
}
const response = await axios.get<T>(url);
return response.data;
}
const fetchAndValidate = async <T = unknown>(
url: string,
validator: ValidateFunction<T>
): Promise<T> => {
// console.log(url);
const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url);
if (validator(data)) {
return data;
}else{
console.log(data)
throw new Error(
`Response validation for url ${url} failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validator.errors, null, 4)
);
}
};
export async function fetchApiQuestions(
next: string
): Promise<ApiMultipleQuestions> {
const data = await fetchAndValidate(next, validateShallowMultipleQuestions);
const isDefined = <T>(argument: T | undefined): argument is T => {
return argument !== undefined;
};
return {
...data,
results: data.results
.map((result) => {
if (!knownQuestionTypes.includes(result.type)) {
console.warn(`Unknown result type ${result.type}, skipping`);
return undefined;
}
if (!validateQuestion(result)) {
throw new Error(
`Response validation failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validateQuestion.errors)
);
}
return result;
})
.filter(isDefined),
};
}
export async function fetchSingleApiQuestion(id: number): Promise<ApiQuestion> {
return await fetchAndValidate(
`https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/${id}/`,
validateQuestion
);
}

View File

@ -0,0 +1,220 @@
import Error from "next/error";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "..";
import {average} from "../../../utils";
import {sleep} from "../../utils/sleep";
import {
ApiCommon,
ApiMultipleQuestions,
ApiPredictable,
ApiQuestion,
fetchApiQuestions,
fetchSingleApiQuestion
} from "./api";
const platformName = "metaculus";
const now = new Date().toISOString();
const SLEEP_TIME = 1000;
async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion: ApiQuestion): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> {
// one item can expand:
// - to 0 questions if we don't want it;
// - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast
// - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details)
const skip = (q : ApiPredictable) : boolean => {
if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) {
return true;
}
if (q.number_of_predictions < 10) {
return true;
}
return false;
};
const buildFetchedQuestion = (q : ApiPredictable & ApiCommon) : Omit < FetchedQuestion,
"url" | "description" | "title" > => {
const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary";
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
if (isBinary) {
const probability = q.community_prediction?.full.q2;
if (probability !== undefined) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
}
}
return {
id: `${platformName}-${
q.id
}`,
options,
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions
},
extra: {
resolution_data: {
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time
}
}
};
};
if (apiQuestion.type === "group") {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
let apiQuestionDetailsTemp
try{
apiQuestionDetailsTemp = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
const apiQuestionDetails = apiQuestionDetailsTemp
if (apiQuestionDetails.type !== "group") {
console.log("Error: expected `group` type")
return [] //throw new Error("Expected `group` type"); // shouldn't happen, this is mostly for typescript
}else{
try{
let result = (apiQuestionDetails.sub_questions || []).filter((q) => ! skip(q)).map((sq) => {
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq);
return {
... tmp,
title: `${
apiQuestion.title
} (${
sq.title
})`,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: `https://www.metaculus.com${
apiQuestion.page_url
}?sub-question=${
sq.id
}`
};
});
return result
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
}
} else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") {
if (apiQuestion.group) {
return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level
}
if (skip(apiQuestion)) {
console.log(`- [Skipping]: ${
apiQuestion.title
}`)
/*console.log(`Close time: ${
apiQuestion.close_time
}, resolve time: ${
apiQuestion.resolve_time
}`)*/
return [];
}
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
try{
const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion);
return [{
... tmp,
title: apiQuestion.title,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url
},];
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
} else {
if (apiQuestion.type !== "claim") { // should never happen, since `discriminator` in JTD schema causes a strict runtime check
console.log(`Unknown metaculus question type: ${
(apiQuestion as any).type
}, skipping`);
}
return [];
}
}
export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
name: platformName,
label: "Metaculus",
color: "#006669",
version: "v2",
fetcherArgs: [
"id", "debug"
],
async fetcher(opts) {
let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
if (opts.args ?. id) {
try{
console.log("Using optional id arg.")
const id = Number(opts.args.id);
const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(id);
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion);
console.log(questions);
return {questions, partial: true};
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return {questions: [], partial: true};
}
}
let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/";
let i = 1;
while (next) {
console.log(`\nQuery #${i} - ${next}`);
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
const apiQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(next);
const results = apiQuestions.results;
// console.log(results)
let j = false;
for (const result of results) {
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(result);
// console.log(questions)
for (const question of questions) {
console.log(`- ${
question.title
}`);
if ((! j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args ?. debug) {
console.log(question);
j = true;
}
allQuestions.push(question);
}
}
next = apiQuestions.next;
i += 1;
}
return {questions: allQuestions, partial: false};
},
calculateStars(data) {
const {numforecasts} = data.qualityindicators;
const nuno = () => (numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
const eli = () => 3;
const misha = () => 3;
const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
}
};

View File

@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import { goodjudgmentopen } from "./goodjudgmentopen";
import { guesstimate } from "./guesstimate";
import { Platform, PlatformConfig } from "./index";
import { infer } from "./infer";
import { insight } from "./insight";
import { kalshi } from "./kalshi";
import { manifold } from "./manifold";
import { metaculus } from "./metaculus";
@ -17,7 +18,9 @@ import { smarkets } from "./smarkets";
import { wildeford } from "./wildeford";
import { xrisk } from "./xrisk";
export const platforms: Platform<string>[] = [
// function instead of const array, this helps to fight circular dependencies
export const getPlatforms = (): Platform<string>[] => {
return [
betfair,
fantasyscotus,
foretold,
@ -26,6 +29,7 @@ export const platforms: Platform<string>[] = [
goodjudgmentopen,
guesstimate,
infer,
insight,
kalshi,
manifold,
metaculus,
@ -35,12 +39,23 @@ export const platforms: Platform<string>[] = [
smarkets,
wildeford,
xrisk,
];
];
};
let _nameToLabelCache: { [k: string]: string } | undefined;
export function platformNameToLabel(name: string): string {
if (!_nameToLabelCache) {
_nameToLabelCache = Object.fromEntries(
getPlatforms().map((platform) => [platform.name, platform.label])
);
}
return _nameToLabelCache[name] || name;
}
// get frontend-safe version of platforms data
export const getPlatformsConfig = (): PlatformConfig[] => {
const platformsConfig = platforms.map((platform) => ({
const platformsConfig = getPlatforms().map((platform) => ({
name: platform.name,
label: platform.label,
color: platform.color,

View File

@ -162,7 +162,6 @@ async function processEventMarkets(event: any, ctx: Context) {
url: "https://smarkets.com/event/" + market.event_id + market.slug,
description: market.description,
options,
timestamp: new Date(),
qualityindicators: {},
extra: {
contracts,

View File

@ -96,7 +96,8 @@ async function processPredictions(
url: prediction["url"],
description: prediction["Notes"] || "",
options,
timestamp: new Date(Date.parse(prediction["Prediction Date"] + "Z")),
//// TODO - use `created` field for this
// timestamp: new Date(Date.parse(prediction["Prediction Date"] + "Z")),
qualityindicators: {},
};
return result;

View File

@ -3,16 +3,19 @@ import algoliasearch from "algoliasearch";
import { Question } from "@prisma/client";
import { prisma } from "../database/prisma";
import { platforms } from "../platforms/registry";
import { platformNameToLabel } from "../platforms/registry";
let cookie = process.env.ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY || "";
const cookie = process.env.ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY || "";
const algoliaAppId = process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ALGOLIA_APP_ID || "";
const client = algoliasearch(algoliaAppId, cookie);
const index = client.initIndex("metaforecast");
export type AlgoliaQuestion = Omit<Question, "timestamp"> & {
timestamp: string;
export type AlgoliaQuestion = Omit<Question, "fetched" | "firstSeen"> & {
fetched: string;
firstSeen: string;
optionsstringforsearch?: string;
platformLabel: string;
objectID: string;
};
const getoptionsstringforsearch = (record: Question): string => {
@ -26,23 +29,23 @@ const getoptionsstringforsearch = (record: Question): string => {
return result;
};
export const questionToAlgoliaQuestion = (
question: Question
): AlgoliaQuestion => {
return {
...question,
fetched: question.fetched.toISOString(),
firstSeen: question.firstSeen.toISOString(),
platformLabel: platformNameToLabel(question.platform),
objectID: question.id,
optionsstringforsearch: getoptionsstringforsearch(question),
};
};
export async function rebuildAlgoliaDatabase() {
const questions = await prisma.question.findMany();
const platformNameToLabel = Object.fromEntries(
platforms.map((platform) => [platform.name, platform.label])
);
const records: AlgoliaQuestion[] = questions.map(
(question, index: number) => ({
...question,
timestamp: `${question.timestamp}`,
platformLabel:
platformNameToLabel[question.platform] || question.platform,
objectID: index,
optionsstringforsearch: getoptionsstringforsearch(question),
})
);
const records: AlgoliaQuestion[] = questions.map(questionToAlgoliaQuestion);
if (await index.exists()) {
console.log("Index exists");

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

View File

@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
import { prisma } from "../../backend/database/prisma";
import { platforms } from "../../backend/platforms/registry";
import { getPlatforms } from "../../backend/platforms/registry";
import { builder } from "../builder";
export const PlatformObj = builder.objectRef<string>("Platform").implement({
@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ export const PlatformObj = builder.objectRef<string>("Platform").implement({
return "Guesstimate";
}
// kinda slow and repetitive, TODO - store a map {name => platform} somewhere and `getPlatform` util function?
const platform = platforms.find((p) => p.name === platformName);
const platform = getPlatforms().find((p) => p.name === platformName);
if (!platform) {
throw new Error(`Unknown platform ${platformName}`);
}
@ -36,10 +36,10 @@ export const PlatformObj = builder.objectRef<string>("Platform").implement({
platform: platformName,
},
_max: {
timestamp: true,
fetched: true,
},
});
return res._max.timestamp;
return res._max.fetched;
},
}),
}),
@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ builder.queryField("platforms", (t) =>
t.field({
type: [PlatformObj],
resolve: async (parent, args) => {
return platforms.map((platform) => platform.name);
return getPlatforms().map((platform) => platform.name);
},
})
);

View File

@ -70,8 +70,21 @@ const QuestionShapeInterface = builder
}),
timestamp: t.field({
type: "Date",
description: "Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question",
resolve: (parent) => parent.timestamp,
description:
"Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question",
deprecationReason: "Renamed to `fetched`",
resolve: (parent) => parent.fetched,
}),
fetched: t.field({
type: "Date",
description:
"Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question",
resolve: (parent) => parent.fetched,
}),
fetchedStr: t.string({
description:
"Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format",
resolve: (parent) => parent.fetched.toISOString(),
}),
qualityIndicators: t.field({
type: QualityIndicatorsObj,
@ -114,10 +127,20 @@ export const QuestionObj = builder.prismaObject("Question", {
resolve: (parent) => (parent.extra as any)?.visualization, // used for guesstimate only, see searchGuesstimate.ts
nullable: true,
}),
firstSeen: t.field({
type: "Date",
description: "First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question",
resolve: (parent) => parent.firstSeen,
}),
firstSeenStr: t.string({
description:
"First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format",
resolve: (parent) => parent.firstSeen.toISOString(),
}),
history: t.relation("history", {
query: () => ({
orderBy: {
timestamp: "asc",
fetched: "asc",
},
}),
}),
@ -130,7 +153,21 @@ builder.queryField("questions", (t) =>
type: "Question",
cursor: "id",
maxSize: 1000,
resolve: (query) => prisma.question.findMany({ ...query }),
args: {
orderBy: t.arg({
type: builder.enumType("QuestionsOrderBy", {
values: ["FIRST_SEEN_DESC"] as const,
}),
}),
},
resolve: (query, parent, args) => {
return prisma.question.findMany({
...query,
...(args.orderBy === "FIRST_SEEN_DESC"
? { orderBy: [{ firstSeen: "desc" }, { id: "asc" }] }
: {}), // TODO - explicit default order?
});
},
},
{},
{}

View File

@ -63,7 +63,8 @@ builder.queryField("searchQuestions", (t) =>
return results.map((q) => ({
...q,
timestamp: new Date(q.timestamp),
fetched: new Date(q.fetched),
firstSeen: new Date(q.firstSeen),
}));
},
})

View File

@ -46,6 +46,10 @@ export type Dashboard = {
export type History = QuestionShape & {
__typename?: 'History';
description: Scalars['String'];
/** Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
fetched: Scalars['Date'];
/** Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format */
fetchedStr: Scalars['String'];
/** History items are identified by their integer ids */
id: Scalars['ID'];
options: Array<ProbabilityOption>;
@ -53,7 +57,10 @@ export type History = QuestionShape & {
qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators;
/** Unique string which identifies the question */
questionId: Scalars['ID'];
/** Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
/**
* Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question
* @deprecated Renamed to `fetched`
*/
timestamp: Scalars['Date'];
title: Scalars['String'];
/** Non-unique, a very small number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction */
@ -114,12 +121,12 @@ export type QualityIndicators = {
export type Query = {
__typename?: 'Query';
/** Look up a single dashboard by its id */
dashboard: Dashboard;
dashboard?: Maybe<Dashboard>;
/** Get a list of questions that are currently on the frontpage */
frontpage: Array<Question>;
platforms: Array<Platform>;
/** Look up a single question by its id */
question: Question;
question?: Maybe<Question>;
questions: QueryQuestionsConnection;
/** Search for questions; uses Algolia instead of the primary metaforecast database */
searchQuestions: Array<Question>;
@ -141,6 +148,7 @@ export type QueryQuestionsArgs = {
before?: InputMaybe<Scalars['String']>;
first?: InputMaybe<Scalars['Int']>;
last?: InputMaybe<Scalars['Int']>;
orderBy?: InputMaybe<QuestionsOrderBy>;
};
@ -163,13 +171,24 @@ export type QueryQuestionsConnectionEdge = {
export type Question = QuestionShape & {
__typename?: 'Question';
description: Scalars['String'];
/** Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
fetched: Scalars['Date'];
/** Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format */
fetchedStr: Scalars['String'];
/** First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
firstSeen: Scalars['Date'];
/** First timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format */
firstSeenStr: Scalars['String'];
history: Array<History>;
/** Unique string which identifies the question */
id: Scalars['ID'];
options: Array<ProbabilityOption>;
platform: Platform;
qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators;
/** Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
/**
* Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question
* @deprecated Renamed to `fetched`
*/
timestamp: Scalars['Date'];
title: Scalars['String'];
/** Non-unique, a very small number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction */
@ -179,16 +198,27 @@ export type Question = QuestionShape & {
export type QuestionShape = {
description: Scalars['String'];
/** Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
fetched: Scalars['Date'];
/** Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question, in ISO 8601 format */
fetchedStr: Scalars['String'];
options: Array<ProbabilityOption>;
platform: Platform;
qualityIndicators: QualityIndicators;
/** Timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question */
/**
* Last timestamp at which metaforecast fetched the question
* @deprecated Renamed to `fetched`
*/
timestamp: Scalars['Date'];
title: Scalars['String'];
/** Non-unique, a very small number of platforms have a page for more than one prediction */
url: Scalars['String'];
};
export enum QuestionsOrderBy {
FirstSeenDesc = 'FIRST_SEEN_DESC'
}
export type SearchInput = {
/** List of platform ids to filter by */
forecastingPlatforms?: InputMaybe<Array<Scalars['String']>>;

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@ -17,12 +17,14 @@ Router.events.on("routeChangeStart", (as, { shallow }) => {
Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done());
Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done());
function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) {
return (
<PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org">
<Component {...pageProps} />
</PlausibleProvider>
);
// Workaround in package.json for: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481
}
export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), {

View File

@ -1,13 +1,24 @@
import { NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse } from "next";
import {NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse} from "next";
// apollo-server-micro is problematic since v3, see https://github.com/apollographql/apollo-server/issues/5547, so we use graphql-yoga instead
import { createServer } from "@graphql-yoga/node";
import {createYoga} from "graphql-yoga";
import {useResponseCache} from '@graphql-yoga/plugin-response-cache'
import { schema } from "../../graphql/schema";
import {schema} from "../../graphql/schema";
const server = createServer<{
const server = createYoga < {
req: NextApiRequest;
res: NextApiResponse;
}>({ schema });
} > ({
schema,
graphqlEndpoint: '/api/graphql',
plugins: [useResponseCache(
{ // global cache
session: () => null,
ttl: 2 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
// ^ 2h * 60 mins per hour, 60 seconds per min 1000 miliseconds per second
}
)]
});
export default server;

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@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
props: {
// reduntant: page component doesn't do graphql requests, but it's still nice/more consistent to have data in cache
urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(),
dashboard,
dashboard: dashboard || undefined,
numCols: !numCols ? undefined : numCols < 5 ? numCols : 4,
},
};

View File

@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
props: {
// reduntant: page component doesn't do graphql requests, but it's still nice/more consistent to have data in cache
urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(),
dashboard,
dashboard: dashboard || undefined,
},
};
};

View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
import { GetServerSideProps, NextPage } from "next";
import React from "react";
import { getPlatformsConfig, platforms } from "../backend/platforms/registry";
import { getPlatforms, getPlatformsConfig } from "../backend/platforms/registry";
import { Layout } from "../web/common/Layout";
import { Props, QueryParameters, SearchScreen } from "../web/search/components/SearchScreen";
import { FrontpageDocument, SearchDocument } from "../web/search/queries.generated";
@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
query: "",
starsThreshold: 2,
forecastsThreshold: 0,
forecastingPlatforms: platforms.map((platform) => platform.name),
forecastingPlatforms: getPlatforms().map((platform) => platform.name),
};
const initialQueryParameters: QueryParameters = {

View File

@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
export {
default,
getServerSideProps,
} from "../../../web/questions/pages/EmbedQuestionPage";

View File

@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
import { GetServerSideProps, NextPage } from "next";
import React from "react";
import { platforms } from "../backend/platforms/registry";
import { getPlatforms } from "../backend/platforms/registry";
import { QuestionFragment } from "../web/fragments.generated";
import { QuestionCard } from "../web/questions/components/QuestionCard";
import { SearchDocument } from "../web/search/queries.generated";
@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
query: "",
starsThreshold: 2,
forecastsThreshold: 0,
forecastingPlatforms: platforms.map((platform) => platform.name),
forecastingPlatforms: getPlatforms().map((platform) => platform.name),
...urlQuery,
};
@ -65,6 +65,7 @@ const SecretEmbedPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ results }) => {
question={result}
showTimeStamp={true}
expandFooterToFullWidth={true}
showExpandButton={false}
/>
) : null}
</div>

View File

@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
import { FaExternalLinkAlt } from "react-icons/fa";
type Props = {
url: string;
size?: "normal" | "small";
};
export const BoxedLink: React.FC<Props> = ({
url,
size = "normal",
children,
}) => (
<a
className={`px-2 py-1 border-2 border-gray-400 rounded-lg text-black no-underline hover:bg-gray-100 inline-flex flex-nowrap space-x-1 items-center text-xs md:text-lg ${
size === "small" ? "text-sm" : ""
}`}
href={url}
target="_blank"
>
<span>{children}</span>
<FaExternalLinkAlt className="text-gray-400 inline " />
</a>
);

View File

@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
import { useState } from "react";
import { FaCaretDown, FaCaretRight } from "react-icons/fa";
export const Collapsible: React.FC<{
title: string;
children: () => React.ReactElement | null;
}> = ({ title, children }) => {
const [open, setOpen] = useState(false);
const expand = (e: React.SyntheticEvent) => {
e.preventDefault();
setOpen(true);
};
const collapse = (e: React.SyntheticEvent) => {
e.preventDefault();
setOpen(false);
};
if (open) {
return (
<div>
<a
href="#"
className="decoration-dashed inline-flex items-center"
onClick={collapse}
>
{title} <FaCaretDown />
</a>
<div>{children()}</div>
</div>
);
} else {
return (
<a
href="#"
className="decoration-dashed inline-flex items-center"
onClick={expand}
>
{title} <FaCaretRight />
</a>
);
}
};

View File

@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ export const Spinner: React.FC = () => (
cy="12"
r="10"
stroke="currentColor"
stroke-width="4"
strokeWidth="4"
></circle>
<path
className="opacity-75"

View File

@ -2,21 +2,21 @@ import * as Types from '../../graphql/types.generated';
import { TypedDocumentNode as DocumentNode } from '@graphql-typed-document-node/core';
import { QuestionFragmentDoc } from '../fragments.generated';
export type DashboardFragment = { __typename?: 'Dashboard', id: string, title: string, description: string, creator: string, questions: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> };
export type DashboardFragment = { __typename?: 'Dashboard', id: string, title: string, description: string, creator: string, questions: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> };
export type DashboardByIdQueryVariables = Types.Exact<{
id: Types.Scalars['ID'];
}>;
export type DashboardByIdQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: { __typename?: 'Dashboard', id: string, title: string, description: string, creator: string, questions: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> } };
export type DashboardByIdQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result?: { __typename?: 'Dashboard', id: string, title: string, description: string, creator: string, questions: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> } | null };
export type CreateDashboardMutationVariables = Types.Exact<{
input: Types.CreateDashboardInput;
}>;
export type CreateDashboardMutation = { __typename?: 'Mutation', result: { __typename?: 'CreateDashboardResult', dashboard: { __typename?: 'Dashboard', id: string, title: string, description: string, creator: string, questions: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> } } };
export type CreateDashboardMutation = { __typename?: 'Mutation', result: { __typename?: 'CreateDashboardResult', dashboard: { __typename?: 'Dashboard', id: string, title: string, description: string, creator: string, questions: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> } } };
export const DashboardFragmentDoc = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Dashboard"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Dashboard"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"title"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"description"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"creator"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"questions"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}}]}}]}},...QuestionFragmentDoc.definitions]} as unknown as DocumentNode<DashboardFragment, unknown>;
export const DashboardByIdDocument = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"OperationDefinition","operation":"query","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"DashboardById"},"variableDefinitions":[{"kind":"VariableDefinition","variable":{"kind":"Variable","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},"type":{"kind":"NonNullType","type":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"ID"}}}}],"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","alias":{"kind":"Name","value":"result"},"name":{"kind":"Name","value":"dashboard"},"arguments":[{"kind":"Argument","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"},"value":{"kind":"Variable","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}}}],"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Dashboard"}}]}}]}},...DashboardFragmentDoc.definitions]} as unknown as DocumentNode<DashboardByIdQuery, DashboardByIdQueryVariables>;

View File

@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
import * as Types from '../graphql/types.generated';
import { TypedDocumentNode as DocumentNode } from '@graphql-typed-document-node/core';
export type QuestionFragment = { __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } };
export type QuestionFragment = { __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } };
export type QuestionWithHistoryFragment = { __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, history: Array<{ __typename?: 'History', timestamp: number, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }> }>, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } };
export type QuestionWithHistoryFragment = { __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, history: Array<{ __typename?: 'History', fetched: number, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }> }>, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } };
export const QuestionFragmentDoc = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"url"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"title"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"description"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"timestamp"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"options"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"name"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"probability"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"platform"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"label"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"qualityIndicators"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"stars"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasts"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasters"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"volume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"spread"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"sharesVolume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"openInterest"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"liquidity"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"tradeVolume"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"visualization"}}]}}]} as unknown as DocumentNode<QuestionFragment, unknown>;
export const QuestionWithHistoryFragmentDoc = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"QuestionWithHistory"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"history"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"timestamp"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"options"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"name"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"probability"}}]}}]}}]}},...QuestionFragmentDoc.definitions]} as unknown as DocumentNode<QuestionWithHistoryFragment, unknown>;
export const QuestionFragmentDoc = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"url"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"title"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"description"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"fetched"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"options"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"name"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"probability"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"platform"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"label"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"qualityIndicators"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"stars"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasts"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"numForecasters"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"volume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"spread"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"sharesVolume"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"openInterest"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"liquidity"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"tradeVolume"}}]}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"visualization"}}]}}]} as unknown as DocumentNode<QuestionFragment, unknown>;
export const QuestionWithHistoryFragmentDoc = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"FragmentDefinition","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"QuestionWithHistory"},"typeCondition":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"history"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"fetched"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"options"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"name"}},{"kind":"Field","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"probability"}}]}}]}}]}},...QuestionFragmentDoc.definitions]} as unknown as DocumentNode<QuestionWithHistoryFragment, unknown>;

View File

@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ fragment Question on Question {
url
title
description
timestamp
fetched
options {
name
probability
@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ fragment Question on Question {
fragment QuestionWithHistory on Question {
...Question
history {
timestamp
fetched
options {
name
probability

View File

@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
import domtoimage from "dom-to-image"; // https://github.com/tsayen/dom-to-image
import { Resizable } from "re-resizable";
import { useEffect, useRef, useState } from "react";
import { Button } from "../../common/Button";
import { CopyParagraph } from "../../common/CopyParagraph";
import { QuestionFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
@ -79,6 +79,15 @@ const MetaculusSource: React.FC<{
);
};
const GrayContainer: React.FC<{ title: string }> = ({ title, children }) => (
<div className="bg-gray-100 p-2 space-y-1">
<div className="uppercase text-xs font-bold tracking-wide text-gray-600">
{title}:
</div>
<div>{children}</div>
</div>
);
interface Props {
question: QuestionFragment;
}
@ -118,27 +127,19 @@ export const CaptureQuestion: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => {
await exportAsPictureAndCode();
};
if (imgSrc) {
return (
<div className="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4 place-items-center">
<div ref={containerRef}>
<QuestionCard
question={question}
showTimeStamp={true}
showExpandButton={false}
expandFooterToFullWidth={true}
/>
</div>
<div>
<Button onClick={onCaptureButtonClick}>{mainButtonText}</Button>
</div>
{imgSrc ? (
<>
<div>
<div className="space-y-4">
<GrayContainer title="Generated image">
<a href={imgSrc} target="_blank">
<img src={imgSrc} />
</div>
</a>
</GrayContainer>
<div>
<ImageSource question={question} imgSrc={imgSrc} />
</div>
{question.platform.id === "metaculus" ? (
<>
<div className="justify-self-stretch">
<MetaculusEmbed question={question} />
</div>
@ -149,6 +150,34 @@ export const CaptureQuestion: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => {
) : null}
</div>
);
}
return (
<div className="space-y-2 flex flex-col">
<GrayContainer title="Resizable preview">
<Resizable
minWidth={320}
bounds="window"
enable={{ right: true, left: true }}
>
<div ref={containerRef}>
<QuestionCard
container={(children) => (
<div className="px-4 py-3 bg-white">{children}</div>
)}
question={question}
showTimeStamp={true}
showExpandButton={false}
expandFooterToFullWidth={true}
/>
</div>
</Resizable>
</GrayContainer>
<Button onClick={onCaptureButtonClick} size="small">
{mainButtonText}
</Button>
</div>
);
};
// Note: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/66016033/can-no-longer-upload-images-to-imgur-from-localhost

View File

@ -3,27 +3,33 @@ import {
VictoryAxis,
VictoryChart,
VictoryGroup,
VictoryStack,
VictoryLabel,
VictoryLine,
VictoryScatter,
VictoryArea,
VictoryTheme,
VictoryTooltip,
VictoryVoronoiContainer,
} from "victory";
import { chartColors, ChartData, ChartSeries, height, width } from "./utils";
import { chartColors, ChartData, ChartSeries, goldenRatio } from "./utils";
let dateFormat = "MMM do y"; // "yyyy-MM-dd"
const height = 200
const width = 200 * goldenRatio
let dateFormat = "dd/MM/yy"; // "yyyy-MM-dd" // "MMM do yy"
// can't be replaced with React component, VictoryChart requires VictoryGroup elements to be immediate children
const getVictoryGroup = ({
data,
i,
highlight,
isBinary,
}: {
data: ChartSeries;
i: number;
highlight?: boolean;
isBinary?: boolean;
}) => {
return (
<VictoryGroup color={chartColors[i] || "darkgray"} data={data} key={i}>
@ -31,13 +37,25 @@ const getVictoryGroup = ({
name={`line-${i}`}
style={{
data: {
strokeOpacity: highlight ? 1 : 0.5,
// strokeOpacity: highlight ? 1 : 0.5,
strokeOpacity: highlight && !isBinary ? 0.8 : 0.6,
strokeWidth: highlight && !isBinary ? 2.5 : 1.5,
},
}}
/>
{isBinary ? (
<VictoryArea
standalone={false}
style={{
data: { fill: chartColors[i], fillOpacity: 0.1, strokeOpacity: 0 },
}}
data={data}
/>
) : null}
<VictoryScatter
name={`scatter-${i}`}
size={({ active }) => (active || highlight ? 3.75 : 3)}
size={({ active }) => (active || highlight ? 0 : 0)} //(active || highlight ? 3.75 : 3)}
/>
</VictoryGroup>
);
@ -55,15 +73,18 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
const domainMax =
maxProbability < 0.5 ? Math.round(10 * (maxProbability + 0.05)) / 10 : 1;
const padding = {
top: 20,
bottom: 65,
left: 60,
right: 5,
top: 12,
bottom: 33,
left: 30,
right: 17,
};
const isBinary = seriesList.length == 1;
console.log(isBinary);
return (
<VictoryChart
domainPadding={20}
domainPadding={{ x: 0 }}
padding={padding}
theme={VictoryTheme.material}
height={height}
@ -80,12 +101,12 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
<VictoryLabel
style={[
{
fontSize: 16,
fontSize: 10,
fill: "black",
strokeWidth: 0.05,
},
{
fontSize: 16,
fontSize: 10,
fill: "#777",
strokeWidth: 0.05,
},
@ -99,7 +120,7 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
)}`
}
style={{
fontSize: 17, // needs to be set here and not just in labelComponent for text size calculations
fontSize: 10, // needs to be set here and not just in labelComponent for text size calculations
fontFamily:
'"Gill Sans", "Gill Sans MT", "Ser­avek", "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif',
// default font family from Victory, need to be specified explicitly for some reason, otherwise text size gets miscalculated
@ -109,10 +130,10 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
fill: "white",
}}
cornerRadius={4}
flyoutPadding={{ top: 4, bottom: 4, left: 16, right: 16 }}
flyoutPadding={{ top: 4, bottom: 4, left: 10, right: 10 }}
/>
}
radius={50}
radius={20}
voronoiBlacklist={
[...Array(seriesList.length).keys()].map((i) => `line-${i}`)
// see: https://github.com/FormidableLabs/victory/issues/545
@ -128,6 +149,11 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
y: [0, domainMax],
}}
>
{
// Note: axis is not in fact unaligned. Fetchers are at ~12:00
// whereas the date is at the beginning of the day
// however, it still doesn't look very pretty.
}
<VictoryAxis
tickCount={Math.min(7, differenceInDays(maxDate, minDate) + 1)}
style={{
@ -135,10 +161,10 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
}}
tickLabelComponent={
<VictoryLabel
dx={-38}
dy={-5}
dx={-10}
dy={0}
angle={-30}
style={{ fontSize: 15, fill: "#777" }}
style={{ fontSize: 9, fill: "#777" }}
/>
}
scale={{ x: "time" }}
@ -150,29 +176,38 @@ export const InnerChart: React.FC<Props> = ({
grid: { stroke: "#D3D3D3", strokeWidth: 0.5 },
}}
tickLabelComponent={
<VictoryLabel dy={0} style={{ fontSize: 18, fill: "#777" }} />
<VictoryLabel dy={0} dx={5} style={{ fontSize: 9, fill: "#777" }} />
}
// tickFormat specifies how ticks should be displayed
tickFormat={(x) => `${x * 100}%`}
/>
{[...Array(seriesList.length).keys()]
.reverse() // affects svg render order, we want to render largest datasets on top of others
.filter((i) => i !== highlight)
//.filter((i) => i !== highlight)
.map((i) =>
getVictoryGroup({
data: seriesList[i],
i,
highlight: false,
highlight: i == highlight, // false
isBinary: isBinary,
})
)}
{highlight === undefined
{
// note: this produces an annoying change of color effect
/*
highlight === undefined
? null
: // render highlighted series on top of everything else
getVictoryGroup({
data: seriesList[highlight],
i: highlight,
highlight: true,
})}
})
*/
}
</VictoryChart>
);
};

View File

@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ export const HistoryChart: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => {
const data = useMemo(() => buildChartData(question), [question]);
return (
<div className="flex items-center flex-col space-y-4 sm:flex-row sm:space-y-0">
<div className="flex items-center space-y-4 sm:flex-row sm:space-y-0 ">
<InnerChart data={data} highlight={highlight} />
<Legend
items={data.seriesNames.map((name, i) => ({

View File

@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ export const chartColors = [
"#F59E0B", // amber-500
];
const goldenRatio = (1 + Math.sqrt(5)) / 2;
export const goldenRatio = (1 + Math.sqrt(5)) / 2;
// used both for chart and for ssr placeholder
export const width = 750;
export const height = width / goldenRatio;
@ -58,16 +58,16 @@ export const buildChartData = (
let seriesList: ChartSeries[] = [...Array(seriesNames.length)].map((x) => []);
const sortedHistory = question.history.sort((a, b) =>
a.timestamp < b.timestamp ? -1 : 1
a.fetched < b.fetched ? -1 : 1
);
{
let previousDate = -Infinity;
for (const item of sortedHistory) {
if (item.timestamp - previousDate < 12 * 60 * 60) {
if (item.fetched - previousDate < 12 * 60 * 60) {
continue;
}
const date = new Date(item.timestamp * 1000);
const date = new Date(item.fetched * 1000);
for (const option of item.options) {
if (option.name == null || option.probability == null) {
@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ export const buildChartData = (
};
seriesList[idx].push(result);
}
previousDate = item.timestamp;
previousDate = item.fetched;
}
}
@ -96,12 +96,12 @@ export const buildChartData = (
}
const minDate = sortedHistory.length
? startOfDay(new Date(sortedHistory[0].timestamp * 1000))
? startOfDay(new Date(sortedHistory[0].fetched * 1000))
: startOfToday();
const maxDate = sortedHistory.length
? addDays(
startOfDay(
new Date(sortedHistory[sortedHistory.length - 1].timestamp * 1000)
new Date(sortedHistory[sortedHistory.length - 1].fetched * 1000)
),
1
)

View File

@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
import { BoxedLink } from "../../common/BoxedLink";
import { QuestionFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
export const PlatformLink: React.FC<{ question: QuestionFragment }> = ({
question,
}) => <BoxedLink url={question.url}>{question.platform.label}</BoxedLink>;

View File

@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ const getCurrencySymbolIfNeeded = ({
"openInterest",
"liquidity",
];
let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket"];
let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket", "insight"];
if (indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol.includes(indicator)) {
if (dollarPlatforms.includes(platform)) {
return "$";
@ -160,9 +160,11 @@ export const QuestionFooter: React.FC<Props> = ({
<div
className={`grid grid-cols-3 ${
expandFooterToFullWidth ? "justify-between" : ""
} text-gray-500 mb-2 mt-1`}
} text-gray-500`}
>
<div className="self-center">
<Stars num={question.qualityIndicators.stars} />
</div>
<div
className={`${
expandFooterToFullWidth ? "place-self-center" : "self-center"
@ -170,6 +172,7 @@ export const QuestionFooter: React.FC<Props> = ({
>
{question.platform.label
.replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen")
.replace("Insight Prediction", "Insight")
.replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")}
</div>
<div

View File

@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
import Link from "next/link";
import { ReactElement, ReactNode } from "react";
import { FaExpand } from "react-icons/fa";
import ReactMarkdown from "react-markdown";
import { Card } from "../../../common/Card";
import { CopyText } from "../../../common/CopyText";
import { QuestionFragment } from "../../../fragments.generated";
import { cleanText } from "../../../utils";
import { cleanText, isQuestionBinary } from "../../../utils";
import { QuestionOptions } from "../QuestionOptions";
import { QuestionFooter } from "./QuestionFooter";
@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ const truncateText = (length: number, text: string): string => {
return text;
}
const breakpoints = " .!?";
let lastLetter: string | undefined = undefined;
let lastIndex: number | undefined = undefined;
let lastLetter
let lastIndex
for (let index = length; index > 0; index--) {
const letter = text[index];
if (breakpoints.includes(letter)) {
@ -63,6 +63,7 @@ const LastUpdated: React.FC<{ timestamp: Date }> = ({ timestamp }) => (
// Main component
interface Props {
container?: (children: ReactNode) => ReactElement;
question: QuestionFragment;
showTimeStamp: boolean;
expandFooterToFullWidth: boolean;
@ -71,6 +72,7 @@ interface Props {
}
export const QuestionCard: React.FC<Props> = ({
container = (children) => <Card>{children}</Card>,
question,
showTimeStamp,
expandFooterToFullWidth,
@ -78,14 +80,11 @@ export const QuestionCard: React.FC<Props> = ({
showExpandButton = true,
}) => {
const { options } = question;
const lastUpdated = new Date(question.timestamp * 1000);
const lastUpdated = new Date(question.fetched * 1000);
const isBinary =
options.length === 2 &&
(options[0].name === "Yes" || options[0].name === "No");
const isBinary = isQuestionBinary(question);
return (
<Card>
return container(
<div className="h-full flex flex-col space-y-4">
<div className="flex-grow space-y-4">
{showIdToggle ? (
@ -114,21 +113,12 @@ export const QuestionCard: React.FC<Props> = ({
</a>
</Card.Title>
</div>
{isBinary ? (
<div className="flex justify-between">
<QuestionOptions question={question} />
<div className={isBinary ? "flex justify-between" : "space-y-4"}>
<QuestionOptions question={question} maxNumOptions={5} />
<div className={`hidden ${showTimeStamp ? "sm:block" : ""}`}>
<LastUpdated timestamp={lastUpdated} />
</div>
</div>
) : (
<div className="space-y-2">
<QuestionOptions question={question} />
<div className={`hidden ${showTimeStamp ? "sm:block" : ""} ml-6`}>
<LastUpdated timestamp={lastUpdated} />
</div>
</div>
)}
{question.platform.id !== "guesstimate" && options.length < 3 && (
<div className="text-gray-500">
@ -151,12 +141,13 @@ export const QuestionCard: React.FC<Props> = ({
<LastUpdated timestamp={lastUpdated} />
</div>
<div className="w-full">
<div className="mb-2 mt-1">
<QuestionFooter
question={question}
expandFooterToFullWidth={expandFooterToFullWidth}
/>
</div>
</div>
</Card>
</div>
);
};

View File

@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
import { QuestionWithHistoryFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
import { HistoryChart } from "./HistoryChart";
type Props = {
question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment;
};
export const QuestionChartOrVisualization: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) =>
question.platform.id === "guesstimate" && question.visualization ? (
<a className="no-underline" href={question.url} target="_blank">
<img
className="rounded-sm"
src={question.visualization}
alt="Guesstimate Screenshot"
/>
</a>
) : question.options.length > 0 ? (
<HistoryChart question={question} />
) : null; /* Don't display chart if there are no options, for now. */

View File

@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
import { QuestionFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
import { PlatformLink } from "./PlatformLink";
import { QuestionOptions } from "./QuestionOptions";
import { Stars } from "./Stars";
type Props = {
question: QuestionFragment;
};
export const QuestionInfoRow: React.FC<Props> = ({ question }) => (
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<PlatformLink question={question} />
<Stars num={question.qualityIndicators.stars} />
<QuestionOptions
question={{ ...question }}
maxNumOptions={1}
forcePrimaryMode={true}
/>
</div>
);

View File

@ -59,6 +59,18 @@ const primaryForecastColor = (probability: number) => {
}
};
const chooseColor = (probability: number) => {
if (probability < 0.1) {
return "bg-blue-50 text-blue-500";
} else if (probability < 0.3) {
return "bg-blue-100 text-blue-600";
} else if (probability < 0.7) {
return "bg-blue-200 text-blue-700";
} else {
return "bg-blue-300 text-blue-800";
}
};
const primaryEstimateAsText = (probability: number) => {
if (probability < 0.03) {
return "Exceptionally unlikely";
@ -77,38 +89,48 @@ const primaryEstimateAsText = (probability: number) => {
}
};
const chooseColor = (probability: number) => {
if (probability < 0.1) {
return "bg-blue-50 text-blue-500";
} else if (probability < 0.3) {
return "bg-blue-100 text-blue-600";
} else if (probability < 0.7) {
return "bg-blue-200 text-blue-700";
} else {
return "bg-blue-300 text-blue-800";
}
type OptionProps = {
option: FullQuestionOption;
mode: "primary" | "normal"; // affects font size and colors
textMode: "name" | "probability"; // whether to output option name or probability estimate as text
};
const OptionRow: React.FC<{ option: FullQuestionOption }> = ({ option }) => {
const OptionRow: React.FC<OptionProps> = ({ option, mode, textMode }) => {
return (
<div className="flex items-center">
<div className="flex items-center space-x-2">
<div
className={`${chooseColor(
option.probability
)} w-14 flex-none rounded-md py-0.5 text-sm text-center`}
className={`flex-none rounded-md text-center ${
mode === "primary"
? "text-sm md:text-lg text-normal text-white px-2 py-0.5 font-bold"
: "text-sm w-14 py-0.5"
} ${
mode === "primary"
? primaryForecastColor(option.probability)
: chooseColor(option.probability)
}`}
>
{formatProbability(option.probability)}
</div>
<div className="text-gray-700 pl-3 leading-snug text-sm">
{option.name}
<div
className={`leading-snug ${
mode === "primary" ? "text-sm md:text-lg text-normal" : "text-sm"
} ${
mode === "primary" ? textColor(option.probability) : "text-gray-700"
}`}
>
{textMode === "name"
? option.name
: primaryEstimateAsText(option.probability)}
</div>
</div>
);
};
export const QuestionOptions: React.FC<{ question: QuestionFragment }> = ({
question,
}) => {
export const QuestionOptions: React.FC<{
question: QuestionFragment;
maxNumOptions: number;
forcePrimaryMode?: boolean;
}> = ({ question, maxNumOptions, forcePrimaryMode = false }) => {
const isBinary = isQuestionBinary(question);
if (isBinary) {
@ -119,35 +141,26 @@ export const QuestionOptions: React.FC<{ question: QuestionFragment }> = ({
if (!isFullQuestionOption(yesOption)) {
return null; // missing data
}
return (
<div className="space-x-2">
<span
className={`${primaryForecastColor(
yesOption.probability
)} text-white w-16 rounded-md px-1.5 py-0.5 font-bold`}
>
{formatProbability(yesOption.probability)}
</span>
<span
className={`${textColor(
yesOption.probability
)} text-gray-500 inline-block`}
>
{primaryEstimateAsText(yesOption.probability)}
</span>
</div>
<OptionRow option={yesOption} mode="primary" textMode="probability" />
);
} else {
const optionsSorted = question.options
.filter(isFullQuestionOption)
.sort((a, b) => b.probability - a.probability);
const optionsMax5 = optionsSorted.slice(0, 5); // display max 5 options.
const optionsMaxN = optionsSorted.slice(0, maxNumOptions); // display max 5 options.
return (
<div className="space-y-2">
{optionsMax5.map((option, i) => (
<OptionRow option={option} key={i} />
{optionsMaxN.map((option, i) => (
<OptionRow
key={i}
option={option}
mode={forcePrimaryMode ? "primary" : "normal"}
textMode="name"
/>
))}
</div>
);

View File

@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
import { QuestionFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
import { getBasePath } from "../../utils";
type Props = {
question: QuestionFragment;
linkToMetaforecast?: boolean;
};
export const QuestionTitle: React.FC<Props> = ({
question,
linkToMetaforecast,
}) => (
<h1 className="sm:text-3xl text-lg">
<a
className="text-black no-underline hover:text-gray-700"
href={
linkToMetaforecast
? getBasePath() + `/questions/${question.id}`
: question.url
}
target="_blank"
>
{question.title}
</a>
</h1>
);

View File

@ -54,9 +54,5 @@ function getStarsColor(numstars: number) {
}
export const Stars: React.FC<{ num: number }> = ({ num }) => {
return (
<div className={`self-center col-span-1 ${getStarsColor(num)}`}>
{getstars(num)}
</div>
);
return <div className={getStarsColor(num) + " text-xs md:text-lg"}>{getstars(num)}</div>;
};

View File

@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
import { GetServerSideProps, NextPage } from "next";
import NextError from "next/error";
import { Query } from "../../common/Query";
import { ssrUrql } from "../../urql";
import { QuestionChartOrVisualization } from "../components/QuestionChartOrVisualization";
import { QuestionInfoRow } from "../components/QuestionInfoRow";
import { QuestionTitle } from "../components/QuestionTitle";
import { QuestionPageDocument } from "../queries.generated";
interface Props {
id: string;
}
export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
context
) => {
const [ssrCache, client] = ssrUrql();
const id = context.query.id as string;
const question =
(await client.query(QuestionPageDocument, { id }).toPromise()).data
?.result || null;
if (!question) {
context.res.statusCode = 404;
}
return {
props: {
urqlState: ssrCache.extractData(),
id,
question
},
};
};
const EmbedQuestionPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ id }) => {
return (
<div className="block bg-white min-h-screen">
<Query document={QuestionPageDocument} variables={{ id }}>
{({ data: { result: question } }) =>
question ? (
<div className="flex flex-col p-2 w-full h-12/12">
{/*<QuestionTitle question={question} linkToMetaforecast={true} /> */}
<div className="mb-1 mt-1">
<QuestionInfoRow question={question} />
</div>
<div className="mb-0">
<QuestionChartOrVisualization question={question} />
</div>
</div>
) : (
<NextError statusCode={404} />
)
}
</Query>
</div>
);
};
export default EmbedQuestionPage;

View File

@ -1,17 +1,20 @@
import { GetServerSideProps, NextPage } from "next";
import { FaExternalLinkAlt } from "react-icons/fa";
import NextError from "next/error";
import React from "react";
import ReactMarkdown from "react-markdown";
import { Card } from "../../common/Card";
import { Collapsible } from "../../common/Collapsible";
import { CopyParagraph } from "../../common/CopyParagraph";
import { Layout } from "../../common/Layout";
import { LineHeader } from "../../common/LineHeader";
import { Query } from "../../common/Query";
import { QuestionWithHistoryFragment } from "../../fragments.generated";
import { ssrUrql } from "../../urql";
import { getBasePath } from "../../utils";
import { CaptureQuestion } from "../components/CaptureQuestion";
import { HistoryChart } from "../components/HistoryChart";
import { IndicatorsTable } from "../components/IndicatorsTable";
import { Stars } from "../components/Stars";
import { QuestionChartOrVisualization } from "../components/QuestionChartOrVisualization";
import { QuestionInfoRow } from "../components/QuestionInfoRow";
import { QuestionTitle } from "../components/QuestionTitle";
import { QuestionPageDocument } from "../queries.generated";
interface Props {
@ -40,55 +43,68 @@ export const getServerSideProps: GetServerSideProps<Props> = async (
};
};
const Section: React.FC<{ title: string }> = ({ title, children }) => (
<div className="space-y-2 flex flex-col items-start">
<h2 className="text-xl text-gray-900">{title}</h2>
const Section: React.FC<{ title: string; id?: string }> = ({
title,
children,
id,
}) => (
<div className="space-y-4 flex flex-col items-start" id={id}>
<div className="border-b-2 border-gray-200 w-full group">
<h2 className="text-xl leading-3 text-gray-900">
<span>{title}</span>
{id ? (
<>
{" "}
<a
className="text-gray-300 no-underline hidden group-hover:inline"
href={`#${id}`}
>
#
</a>
</>
) : null}
</h2>
</div>
<div>{children}</div>
</div>
);
const EmbedSection: React.FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({
question,
}) => {
const url = `https://${getBasePath()}/questions/embed/${question.id}`;
return (
<Section title="Embed" id="embed">
<CopyParagraph
text={`<iframe src="${url}" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />`}
buttonText="Copy HTML"
/>
<div className="mt-2">
<Collapsible title="Preview">
{() => <iframe src={url} height="600" width="600" frameBorder="0" />}
</Collapsible>
</div>
</Section>
);
};
const LargeQuestionCard: React.FC<{
question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment;
}> = ({ question }) => (
}> = ({ question }) => {
return (
<Card highlightOnHover={false} large={true}>
<h1 className="sm:text-3xl text-xl">
<a
className="text-black no-underline hover:text-gray-700"
href={question.url}
target="_blank"
>
{question.title}{" "}
<FaExternalLinkAlt className="text-gray-400 inline sm:text-3xl text-xl mb-1" />
</a>
</h1>
<QuestionTitle question={question} />
<div className="flex gap-2 mb-10">
<a
className="text-black no-underline bg-red-300 rounded p-1 px-2 text-xs hover:text-gray-600"
href={question.url}
target="_blank"
>
{question.platform.label}
</a>
<Stars num={question.qualityIndicators.stars} />
<div className="mb-5 mt-5">
<QuestionInfoRow question={question} />
</div>
<div className="mb-10">
{question.platform.id === "guesstimate" && question.visualization ? (
<a className="no-underline" href={question.url} target="_blank">
<img
className="rounded-sm"
src={question.visualization}
alt="Guesstimate Screenshot"
/>
</a>
) : (
<HistoryChart question={question} />
)}
<QuestionChartOrVisualization question={question} />
</div>
<div className="mx-auto max-w-prose">
<Section title="Question description">
<div className="mx-auto max-w-prose space-y-8">
<Section title="Question description" id="description">
<ReactMarkdown
linkTarget="_blank"
className="font-normal text-gray-900"
@ -96,35 +112,30 @@ const LargeQuestionCard: React.FC<{
{question.description.replaceAll("---", "")}
</ReactMarkdown>
</Section>
<div className="mt-5">
<Section title="Indicators">
<Section title="Indicators" id="indicators">
<IndicatorsTable question={question} />
</Section>
</div>
<Section title="Capture" id="capture">
<CaptureQuestion question={question} />
</Section>
<EmbedSection question={question} />
</div>
</Card>
);
const QuestionScreen: React.FC<{ question: QuestionWithHistoryFragment }> = ({
question,
}) => (
<div className="space-y-8">
<LargeQuestionCard question={question} />
<div className="space-y-4">
<LineHeader>
<h1>Capture</h1>
</LineHeader>
<CaptureQuestion question={question} />
</div>
</div>
);
);
};
const QuestionPage: NextPage<Props> = ({ id }) => {
return (
<Layout page="question">
<div className="max-w-4xl mx-auto">
<Query document={QuestionPageDocument} variables={{ id }}>
{({ data }) => <QuestionScreen question={data.result} />}
{({ data }) =>
data.result ? (
<LargeQuestionCard question={data.result} />
) : (
<NextError statusCode={404} />
)
}
</Query>
</div>
</Layout>

View File

@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ export type QuestionPageQueryVariables = Types.Exact<{
}>;
export type QuestionPageQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: { __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, history: Array<{ __typename?: 'History', timestamp: number, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }> }>, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } } };
export type QuestionPageQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result?: { __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, history: Array<{ __typename?: 'History', fetched: number, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }> }>, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } } | null };
export const QuestionPageDocument = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"OperationDefinition","operation":"query","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"QuestionPage"},"variableDefinitions":[{"kind":"VariableDefinition","variable":{"kind":"Variable","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}},"type":{"kind":"NonNullType","type":{"kind":"NamedType","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"ID"}}}}],"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","alias":{"kind":"Name","value":"result"},"name":{"kind":"Name","value":"question"},"arguments":[{"kind":"Argument","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"},"value":{"kind":"Variable","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"id"}}}],"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"QuestionWithHistory"}}]}}]}},...QuestionWithHistoryFragmentDoc.definitions]} as unknown as DocumentNode<QuestionPageQuery, QuestionPageQueryVariables>;

View File

@ -5,14 +5,14 @@ import { QuestionFragmentDoc } from '../fragments.generated';
export type FrontpageQueryVariables = Types.Exact<{ [key: string]: never; }>;
export type FrontpageQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> };
export type FrontpageQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> };
export type SearchQueryVariables = Types.Exact<{
input: Types.SearchInput;
}>;
export type SearchQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, timestamp: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> };
export type SearchQuery = { __typename?: 'Query', result: Array<{ __typename?: 'Question', id: string, url: string, title: string, description: string, fetched: number, visualization?: string | null, options: Array<{ __typename?: 'ProbabilityOption', name?: string | null, probability?: number | null }>, platform: { __typename?: 'Platform', id: string, label: string }, qualityIndicators: { __typename?: 'QualityIndicators', stars: number, numForecasts?: number | null, numForecasters?: number | null, volume?: number | null, spread?: number | null, sharesVolume?: number | null, openInterest?: number | null, liquidity?: number | null, tradeVolume?: number | null } }> };
export const FrontpageDocument = {"kind":"Document","definitions":[{"kind":"OperationDefinition","operation":"query","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Frontpage"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"Field","alias":{"kind":"Name","value":"result"},"name":{"kind":"Name","value":"frontpage"},"selectionSet":{"kind":"SelectionSet","selections":[{"kind":"FragmentSpread","name":{"kind":"Name","value":"Question"}}]}}]}},...QuestionFragmentDoc.definitions]} as unknown as DocumentNode<FrontpageQuery, FrontpageQueryVariables>;

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@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { QuestionFragment } from "./fragments.generated";
export const getBasePath = () => {
if (process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL) {
return `https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`;
return `https://metaforecast.org`;//`https://${process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_VERCEL_URL}`;
}
// can be used for local development if you prefer non-default port
@ -14,8 +14,8 @@ export const getBasePath = () => {
};
export const cleanText = (text: string): string => {
// Note: should no longer be necessary?
// Still needed for e.g. /questions/rootclaim-what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370
// TODO - move to GraphQL:
// { description(clean: true, truncate: 250) }
let textString = !!text ? text : "";
textString = textString
.replaceAll("] (", "](")
@ -23,12 +23,13 @@ export const cleanText = (text: string): string => {
.replaceAll("( [", "([")
.replaceAll(") ,", "),")
.replaceAll("==", "") // Denotes a title in markdown
.replaceAll("Background\n", "")
.replaceAll("Context\n", "")
.replaceAll(/^#+\s+/gm, "")
.replaceAll(/^Background\n/gm, "")
.replaceAll(/^Context\n/gm, "")
.replaceAll("--- \n", "- ")
.replaceAll(/\[(.*?)\]\(.*?\)/g, "$1");
textString = textString.slice(0, 1) == "=" ? textString.slice(1) : textString;
//console.log(textString)
return textString;
};

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@ -96,7 +96,8 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
title: "No search results match your query",
url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query?",
platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'?",
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
@ -109,7 +110,8 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: `${new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10)}`,
fetched: new Date().toISOString(),
firstSeen: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: 1,
numforecasters: 1,
@ -126,8 +128,11 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
title: `Did you mean: ${queryString}?`,
url: "https://metaforecast.org/recursion?bypassEasterEgg=true",
platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description:
"Fatal error: Too much recursion. Click to proceed anyways",
fetched: new Date().toISOString(),
firstSeen: new Date().toISOString(),
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
@ -140,7 +145,6 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: `${new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10)}`,
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: 1,
numforecasters: 1,
@ -161,7 +165,8 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
title: "No search results appear to match your query",
url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query? That said, we could be wrong.",
platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query? Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'? That said, we could be wrong.",
options: [
{
name: "Yes",
@ -174,7 +179,8 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
type: "PROBABILITY",
},
],
timestamp: `${new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10)}`,
fetched: new Date().toISOString(),
firstSeen: new Date().toISOString(),
qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: 1,
numforecasters: 1,

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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ export async function uploadToImgur(dataURL: string): Promise<string> {
method: "post",
url: "https://api.imgur.com/3/image",
headers: {
Authorization: "Bearer 8e9666fb889318515a62208560d4e8393dac26d8",
Authorization: `Bearer ${process.env.IMGUR_BEARER}`,
},
data: {
type: "base64",

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