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...

29 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
8a191bb694 tweak: Insight name display 2022-10-28 15:25:47 +01:00
b9460be02d tweak: symbol for insight markets volume in $$ 2022-10-28 13:59:32 +01:00
fd7839932d tweak: console.log tweak 2022-10-28 13:59:14 +01:00
1fa2aa1bdd feat: insight prediction tweaks 2022-10-28 13:31:08 +01:00
d739def318 feat: add insight non-binary markets 2022-10-28 13:25:58 +01:00
bf89e4b11d feat: save further insight progress. 2022-10-28 12:37:28 +01:00
f5bf50456a feat: Add insight markets
So far restricted to:
- Binary markets
- Denominated in USD
2022-10-28 10:28:34 +01:00
d7843b52c3 feat: save insight prediction changes 2022-10-27 23:35:44 +01:00
370f332e64 tweak: add/clean to do items. 2022-10-27 19:12:30 +01:00
c0a72b6b9c fix: status spinner 2022-10-26 23:19:14 +01:00
8c91993f78
Merge pull request #97 from quantified-uncertainty/fix-metaculus-validation
Fix metaculus validation bug
2022-10-26 16:37:17 +01:00
Vyacheslav Matyukhin
2176c51d5f
community_prediction can be null on subquestions
e.g. https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12663/
2022-10-26 19:35:03 +04:00
002a0e5e2f tweak: Added some metaculus checking
But this doesn't work, because many questions
are being validated at once. Aarg.
2022-10-26 16:08:18 +01:00
a873cc4497 feat: update manifold markets code. 2022-10-26 14:36:23 +01:00
bc09456bb7 fix: hacky fix for typescript error 2022-10-26 13:53:11 +01:00
fc9c222a44 fix: catch metaculus errors
Current code isn't particularly resilient
to API changes.
2022-10-26 13:44:14 +01:00
83a01e6156 fix: Deal with <https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/8592>
Document this on the README, and add a few more to do items
2022-10-25 14:20:06 +02:00
346e070d0e fix: add typescript package 2022-10-25 13:24:52 +02:00
2518707d6a fix: Move to yarn
npm wasn't dealing well with large numbers of dependencies,
and the updating process is a bit clunky (requires me to
delete the node_modules directory each time). Trying yarn for now
2022-10-25 13:17:11 +02:00
ba84377eae fix: update dependencies
Metaforecast has been going down somewhat randomly. Hopefully
that fixes some of it.
2022-10-22 22:20:13 +01:00
f0f4188758 fix: remove netlify devdependencies
No longer needed, since we are using vercel.
2022-10-21 13:22:58 +01:00
a4b88e6023 fix: fix some outdated packages, I. 2022-10-21 13:20:43 +01:00
e8f1839a95 fix: hopefully finally fix StaticImageData error 2022-10-21 13:14:09 +01:00
63628c96fe Revert "fix: type error"
This reverts commit ed0c6e0588.
2022-10-21 13:11:49 +01:00
0d84c26e08 Revert "fix: try another fix for StaticImageData"
This reverts commit 1bf1cf9c83.
2022-10-21 13:11:12 +01:00
1bf1cf9c83 fix: try another fix for StaticImageData 2022-10-21 13:04:21 +01:00
ed0c6e0588 fix: type error
See: <https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788>
2022-10-21 12:57:53 +01:00
133db36d69 fix: autoprefixer error, node location error
See:
- <https://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/issues/36259>
- <https://nextjs.org/docs/messages/nested-middleware>
2022-10-21 12:53:03 +01:00
9766b49046 fix: update graphql dependencies. 2022-10-21 12:41:02 +01:00
15 changed files with 9260 additions and 70469 deletions

2
.gitignore vendored
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@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ yarn-error.log*
# yarn vs npm conflict # yarn vs npm conflict
package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead
yarn.lock # yarn.lock
# Local Netlify folder # Local Netlify folder
.netlify .netlify

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@ -91,3 +91,16 @@ Overall, the services which we use are:
- Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary) - Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary)
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions. - For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters out questions with <10 predictions.
- The database is updated once a day, at 3:00 AM UTC, with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.ts`. The frontpage is updated after that, at 6:00 AM UTC with the command `ts-node -T src/backend/index.ts frontpage`. It's possible that either of these two operations makes the webpage briefly go down.
## To do
- [x] Update Metaculus and Manifold Markets fetchers
- [ ] Upgrade to [React 18](https://reactjs.org/blog/2022/03/08/react-18-upgrade-guide.html). This will require dealing with the workaround we used for [this issue](https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481)
- [ ] Add markets from [Insight Prediction](https://insightprediction.com/).
- [ ] Add database of resolutions
- [ ] Allow users to embed predictions in the EA Forum/LessWrong (in progress)
- [ ] Find a long-term mantainer for this project
- [ ] Allow users to record their own predictions
- [ ] Release snapshots (I think @niplav is working on this)
- [ ] ...

70279
package-lock.json generated

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@ -7,8 +7,7 @@
"url": "git+https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast.git" "url": "git+https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast.git"
}, },
"keywords": [ "keywords": [
"forecasts", "forecasts", "predictions"
"predictions"
], ],
"author": "Nuño Sempere", "author": "Nuño Sempere",
"license": "MIT", "license": "MIT",
@ -27,92 +26,96 @@
"dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES" "dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES"
}, },
"dependencies": { "dependencies": {
"@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.0", "@floating-ui/react-dom": "^0.7.2",
"@graphql-yoga/node": "^2.1.0", "@graphql-yoga/node": "^2.13.13",
"@pothos/core": "^3.5.1", "@pothos/core": "^3.22.8",
"@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.4.0", "@pothos/plugin-prisma": "^3.35.6",
"@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.10.0", "@pothos/plugin-relay": "^3.28.6",
"@prisma/client": "^3.11.1", "@prisma/client": "^3.15.2",
"@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.2.11", "@quri/squiggle-lang": "^0.2.12",
"@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.0", "@tailwindcss/forms": "^0.4.1",
"@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.1", "@tailwindcss/typography": "^0.5.7",
"@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.3", "@types/chroma-js": "^2.1.4",
"@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4", "@types/dom-to-image": "^2.6.4",
"@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.2.1", "@types/google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0",
"@types/jsdom": "^16.2.14", "@types/jsdom": "^16.2.15",
"@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0", "@types/nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"@types/react": "^17.0.39", "@types/react": "^17.0.50",
"@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.2", "@types/react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.4",
"@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1", "@types/textversionjs": "^1.1.1",
"@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3", "@types/tunnel": "^0.0.3",
"airtable": "^0.11.1", "airtable": "^0.11.5",
"ajv": "^8.11.0", "ajv": "^8.11.0",
"algoliasearch": "^4.10.3", "algoliasearch": "^4.14.2",
"autoprefixer": "^10.1.0", "autoprefixer": "10.4.5",
"axios": "^0.25.0", "axios": "^0.25.0",
"chroma-js": "^2.4.2", "chroma-js": "^2.4.2",
"critters": "^0.0.16", "critters": "^0.0.16",
"date-fns": "^2.28.0", "date-fns": "^2.29.3",
"dom-to-image": "^2.6.0", "dom-to-image": "^2.6.0",
"dotenv": "^16.0.0", "dotenv": "^16.0.3",
"fetch": "^1.1.0", "fetch": "^1.1.0",
"fs": "^0.0.1-security", "fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"fuse.js": "^6.4.6", "fuse.js": "^6.6.2",
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.1.15", "google-spreadsheet": "^3.3.0",
"graphql": "^16.3.0", "graphql": "^16.6.0",
"graphql-request": "^4.0.0", "graphql-request": "^4.3.0",
"html-to-image": "^1.7.0", "html-to-image": "^1.10.8",
"https": "^1.0.0", "https": "^1.0.0",
"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0", "isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0",
"jsdom": "^19.0.0", "jsdom": "^19.0.0",
"json2csv": "^5.0.5", "json2csv": "^5.0.7",
"multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.17", "multiselect-react-dropdown": "^2.0.25",
"next": "12", "next": "^12.3.1",
"next-plausible": "^3.1.6", "next-plausible": "^3.6.3",
"next-urql": "^3.3.2", "next-urql": "^3.3.3",
"nprogress": "^0.2.0", "nprogress": "^0.2.0",
"open": "^7.3.1", "open": "^7.4.2",
"papaparse": "^5.3.0", "papaparse": "^5.3.2",
"pg": "^8.7.3", "pg": "^8.8.0",
"postcss": "^8.2.1", "postcss": "^8.4.18",
"postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2", "postcss-flexbugs-fixes": "^5.0.2",
"postcss-preset-env": "^7.3.2", "postcss-preset-env": "^7.8.2",
"prisma": "^3.11.1", "prisma": "^3.15.2",
"query-string": "^7.1.1", "query-string": "^7.1.1",
"re-resizable": "^6.9.9", "re-resizable": "^6.9.9",
"react": "^17.0.2", "react": "^17.0.2",
"react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6", "react-component-export-image": "^1.0.6",
"react-compound-slider": "^3.3.1", "react-compound-slider": "^3.4.0",
"react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.0.3", "react-copy-to-clipboard": "^5.1.0",
"react-dom": "^17.0.2", "react-dom": "^17.0.2",
"react-dropdown": "^1.9.2", "react-dropdown": "^1.11.0",
"react-hook-form": "^7.27.0", "react-hook-form": "^7.38.0",
"react-icons": "^4.2.0", "react-icons": "^4.6.0",
"react-is": "^18.0.0", "react-is": "^18.2.0",
"react-markdown": "^8.0.0", "react-markdown": "^8.0.3",
"react-safe": "^1.3.0", "react-safe": "^1.3.0",
"react-select": "^5.2.2", "react-select": "^5.5.4",
"remark-gfm": "^3.0.1", "remark-gfm": "^3.0.1",
"tabletojson": "^2.0.4", "tabletojson": "^2.0.7",
"tailwindcss": "^3.0.22", "tailwindcss": "^3.2.0",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3", "textversionjs": "^1.1.3",
"ts-node": "^10.7.0", "ts-node": "^10.9.1",
"tunnel": "^0.0.6", "tunnel": "^0.0.6",
"urql": "^2.2.0", "urql": "^2.2.3",
"urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.5", "urql-custom-scalars-exchange": "^0.1.6",
"victory": "^36.3.2" "victory": "^36.6.8"
},
"resolutions": {
"@types/react": "<18.0.0"
}, },
"devDependencies": { "devDependencies": {
"@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.6.2", "@graphql-codegen/cli": "^2.13.7",
"@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.1.1", "@graphql-codegen/introspection": "^2.2.1",
"@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.2.9", "@graphql-codegen/near-operation-file-preset": "^2.4.3",
"@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.4.1", "@graphql-codegen/schema-ast": "^2.5.1",
"@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.2.8", "@graphql-codegen/typed-document-node": "^2.3.5",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.4.8", "@graphql-codegen/typescript": "^2.7.5",
"@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.3.5", "@graphql-codegen/typescript-operations": "^2.5.5",
"@netlify/plugin-nextjs": "^4.2.4", "@svgr/cli": "^6.5.0",
"@svgr/cli": "^6.2.1",
"@types/pg": "^8.6.5", "@types/pg": "^8.6.5",
"netlify-cli": "^9.13.6" "eslint": "^8.25.0",
"eslint-config-next": "^12.3.1",
"typescript": "4.8.4"
} }
} }

8
src/Global.d.ts vendored Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
// Workaround related to: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788
// https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/29788#issuecomment-1000595524
declare type StaticImageData = {
src: string;
height: number;
width: number;
placeholder?: string;
};

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@ -1,15 +1,218 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import {or} from "ajv/dist/compile/codegen";
import axios from "axios"; import axios from "axios";
import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "."; import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from ".";
import {QuestionOption} from "../../common/types";
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
import { average } from "../../utils";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "insight"; const platformName = "insight";
const marketsEnpoint = "https://insightprediction.com/api/markets"; const marketsEnpoint = "https://insightprediction.com/api/markets?orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=asc";
const getMarketEndpoint = (id : number) => `https://insightprediction.com/api/markets/${id}`; const getMarketEndpoint = (id : number) => `https://insightprediction.com/api/markets/${id}`;
const SPORTS_CATEGORIES = [
'World Cup',
'MLB',
'Futures',
'Sports',
'EPL',
'Golf',
'NHL',
'College Football'
]
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
// Stubs
const excludeMarketFromTitle = (title : any) => {
if (!!title) {
return title.includes(" vs ") || title.includes(" Over: ") || title.includes("NFL") || title.includes("Will there be a first time winner") || title.includes("Premier League")
} else {
return true
}
}
const hasActiveYesNoOrderBook = (orderbook : any) => {
if (!!orderbook) {
let yes = !!orderbook.yes && !!orderbook.yes.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.buy) && orderbook.yes.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.yes.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.yes.sell) && orderbook.yes.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let no = !!orderbook.no && !!orderbook.no.buy && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.buy) && orderbook.no.buy.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.buy[0].price && !!orderbook.no.sell && Array.isArray(orderbook.no.sell) && orderbook.no.sell.length != 0 && !!orderbook.no.sell[0].price
return yes && no
} else {
return false
}
}
const isBinaryQuestion = (data : any) => Array.isArray(data) && data.length == 1
const geomMean = (a : number, b : number) => Math.sqrt(a * b)
const processRelativeUrls = (a : string) => a.replaceAll("] (/", "](http://insightprediction.com/").replaceAll("](/", "](http://insightprediction.com/")
const processDescriptionText = (text : any) => {
if (typeof text === 'string') {
return processRelativeUrls(toMarkdown(text))
} else {
return ""
}
}
const getOrderbookPrize = (orderbook : any) => {
let yes_min_cents = orderbook.yes.buy[0].price
let yes_max_cents = orderbook.yes.sell[0].price
let yes_min = Number(yes_min_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_max = Number(yes_max_cents.slice(0, -1))
let yes_price_orderbook = geomMean(yes_min, yes_max)
return yes_price_orderbook
}
const getAnswerProbability = (answer : any) => {
let orderbook = answer.orderbook
let latest_yes_price = answer.latest_yes_price
if (!! orderbook && hasActiveYesNoOrderBook(orderbook)) {
let yes_price_orderbook = getOrderbookPrize(orderbook)
let yes_probability = (latest_yes_price ? geomMean(latest_yes_price, yes_price_orderbook) : yes_price_orderbook) / 100
return yes_probability
} else if (!! latest_yes_price) {
return latest_yes_price / 100
} else {
return -1
}
}
// Fetching
async function fetchPage(bearer: string, pageNum: number) {
let pageUrl = `${marketsEnpoint}&page=${pageNum}`
const response = await axios({
url: pageUrl, // &orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=desc`,
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response);
return response;
}
async function fetchMarket(bearer: string, marketId: number) {
const response = await axios({
url: getMarketEndpoint(marketId),
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response)
return response;
}
const processMarket = (market : any) => {
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = []
if (!!market && !!market.answer && !!market.answer.data) {
let data = market.answer.data
if (isBinaryQuestion(data)) { // Binary questions
let answer = data[0]
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
options = [
{
name: "Yes",
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
}, {
name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
},
];
}
} else { // non binary question
for (let answer of data) {
let probability = getAnswerProbability(answer)
if (probability != -1) {
let newOption: QuestionOption = ({
name: String(answer.title),
probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY"
});
options.push(newOption)
}
}
}
if (!! options && Array.isArray(options) && options.length > 0) {
const id = `${platformName}-${
market.id
}`
const result: FetchedQuestion = {
id: id,
title: market.title,
url: market.url,
description: processDescriptionText(market.rules),
options,
qualityindicators: market.coin_id == "USD" ? (
{volume: market.volume}
) : ({})
};
return result;
}
}
return null
}
async function fetchAllMarkets(bearer: string) {
let pageNum = 1
let markets = []
let categories = []
let isEnd = false
while (! isEnd) {
if(pageNum % 20 == 0){
console.log(`Fetching page #${pageNum}`) // : ${pageUrl}
}
let page = await fetchPage(bearer, pageNum)
// console.log(JSON.stringify(page, null, 2))
let data = page.data
if (!! data && Array.isArray(data) && data.length > 0) {
let lastMarket = data[data.length - 1]
let isLastMarketResolved = lastMarket.is_resolved
if (isLastMarketResolved == true) {
isEnd = true
}
let newMarkets = data.filter(market => !market.is_resolved && !market.is_expired && ! excludeMarketFromTitle(market.title))
for (let initMarketData of newMarkets) {
let fullMarketDataResponse = await fetchMarket(bearer, initMarketData.id)
let fullMarketData = fullMarketDataResponse.data
let processedMarketData = processMarket(fullMarketData)
if (processedMarketData != null && ! SPORTS_CATEGORIES.includes(fullMarketData.category)) {
console.log(`- Adding: ${
fullMarketData.title
}`)
console.group()
console.log(fullMarketData)
console.log(JSON.stringify(processedMarketData, null, 2))
console.groupEnd()
markets.push(processedMarketData)
}
let category = fullMarketData.category
categories.push(category)
}
} else {
isEnd = true
} pageNum = pageNum + 1
}
console.log(markets)
console.log(categories)
return markets
}
/* /*
async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer : string, marketId : number) { async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer : string, marketId : number) {
const response = await axios({ const response = await axios({
@ -25,19 +228,7 @@ async function fetchQuestionStats(bearer : string, marketId : number) {
return response; return response;
} }
async function fetchPage(bearer : string, pageNum : number) {
const response = await axios({
url: `${marketsEnpoint}?page=${pageNum}`, // &orderBy=is_resolved&sortedBy=desc`,
method: "GET",
headers: {
"Content-Type": "application/json",
Accept: "application/json",
Authorization: `Bearer ${bearer}`
}
}).then((res) => res.data);
// console.log(response);
return response;
}
async function fetchData(bearer : string) { async function fetchData(bearer : string) {
let pageNum = 1; let pageNum = 1;
@ -112,7 +303,6 @@ async function processPredictions(predictions : any[]) {
return results; // resultsProcessed return results; // resultsProcessed
} }
*/ */
/* Body */ /* Body */
export const insight: Platform = { export const insight: Platform = {
name: platformName, name: platformName,
@ -121,12 +311,29 @@ export const insight: Platform = {
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let bearer = process.env.INSIGHT_BEARER; let bearer = process.env.INSIGHT_BEARER;
// let data = await fetchData(bearer); if (!! bearer) {
// console.log(data); let data = await fetchAllMarkets(bearer);
let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; // await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed return data
return results; } else {
throw Error("No INSIGHT_BEARER available in environment")
}
// let results: FetchedQuestion[] = []; // await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
// return results;
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
return 2; let nuno = () => {
if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 10000){
return 4
} else if((data.qualityindicators.volume || 0) > 1000){
return 3
} else{
return 2
}
}
let eli = () => null;
let misha = () => null;
let starsDecimal = average([nuno()]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger;
} }
}; };

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@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from "./";
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
const platformName = "manifold"; const platformName = "manifold";
const endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets"; const ENDPOINT = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
// See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5 // See https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
async function fetchData() { async function fetchPage(endpoint: string) {
let response = await axios({ let response = await axios({
url: endpoint, url: endpoint,
method: "GET", method: "GET",
@ -23,6 +23,31 @@ async function fetchData() {
return response; return response;
} }
async function fetchAllData(){
let endpoint = ENDPOINT
let end = false
let allData = []
let counter = 1
while(!end){
console.log(`Query #${counter}: ${endpoint}`)
let newData = await fetchPage(endpoint)
if(Array.isArray(newData)){
allData.push(...newData)
let hasReachedEnd = (newData.length == 0) || (newData[newData.length -1] == undefined) || (newData[newData.length -1].id == undefined)
if(!hasReachedEnd){
let lastId = newData[newData.length -1].id
endpoint = `${ENDPOINT}?before=${lastId}`
}else{
end = true
}
}else{
end = true
}
counter = counter +1
}
return allData
}
function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) { function showStatistics(results: FetchedQuestion[]) {
console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`); console.log(`Num unresolved markets: ${results.length}`);
let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0); let sum = (arr: number[]) => arr.reduce((tally, a) => tally + a, 0);
@ -63,7 +88,7 @@ function processPredictions(predictions: any[]): FetchedQuestion[] {
id: id, id: id,
title: prediction.question, title: prediction.question,
url: prediction.url, url: prediction.url,
description: prediction.description, description: prediction.description || "",
options, options,
qualityindicators: { qualityindicators: {
createdTime: prediction.createdTime, createdTime: prediction.createdTime,
@ -90,7 +115,7 @@ export const manifold: Platform = {
color: "#793466", color: "#793466",
version: "v1", version: "v1",
async fetcher() { async fetcher() {
let data = await fetchData(); let data = await fetchAllData();
let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed let results = processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
showStatistics(results); showStatistics(results);
return results; return results;

View File

@ -64,6 +64,7 @@ const predictableProps = {
additionalProperties: true, additionalProperties: true,
}, },
}, },
nullable: true,
additionalProperties: true, additionalProperties: true,
}, },
} as const; } as const;
@ -211,15 +212,17 @@ const fetchAndValidate = async <T = unknown>(
url: string, url: string,
validator: ValidateFunction<T> validator: ValidateFunction<T>
): Promise<T> => { ): Promise<T> => {
console.log(url); // console.log(url);
const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url); const data = await fetchWithRetries<object>(url);
if (validator(data)) { if (validator(data)) {
return data; return data;
} }else{
console.log(data)
throw new Error( throw new Error(
`Response validation for url ${url} failed: ` + `Response validation for url ${url} failed: ` +
JSON.stringify(validator.errors) JSON.stringify(validator.errors, null, 4)
); );
}
}; };
export async function fetchApiQuestions( export async function fetchApiQuestions(

View File

@ -1,28 +1,27 @@
import { FetchedQuestion, Platform } from ".."; import Error from "next/error";
import { average } from "../../../utils"; import {FetchedQuestion, Platform} from "..";
import { sleep } from "../../utils/sleep"; import {average} from "../../../utils";
import {sleep} from "../../utils/sleep";
import { import {
ApiCommon, ApiCommon,
ApiMultipleQuestions, ApiMultipleQuestions,
ApiPredictable, ApiPredictable,
ApiQuestion, ApiQuestion,
fetchApiQuestions, fetchApiQuestions,
fetchSingleApiQuestion, fetchSingleApiQuestion
} from "./api"; } from "./api";
const platformName = "metaculus"; const platformName = "metaculus";
const now = new Date().toISOString(); const now = new Date().toISOString();
const SLEEP_TIME = 1000; const SLEEP_TIME = 1000;
async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions( async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion: ApiQuestion): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> {
apiQuestion: ApiQuestion
): Promise<FetchedQuestion[]> {
// one item can expand: // one item can expand:
// - to 0 questions if we don't want it; // - to 0 questions if we don't want it;
// - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast // - to 1 question if it's a simple forecast
// - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details) // - to multiple questions if it's a group (see https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast/pull/84 for details)
const skip = (q: ApiPredictable): boolean => { const skip = (q : ApiPredictable) : boolean => {
if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) { if (q.publish_time > now || now > q.resolve_time) {
return true; return true;
} }
@ -32,89 +31,119 @@ async function apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(
return false; return false;
}; };
const buildFetchedQuestion = ( const buildFetchedQuestion = (q : ApiPredictable & ApiCommon) : Omit < FetchedQuestion,
q: ApiPredictable & ApiCommon "url" | "description" | "title" > => {
): Omit<FetchedQuestion, "url" | "description" | "title"> => {
const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary"; const isBinary = q.possibilities.type === "binary";
let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = []; let options: FetchedQuestion["options"] = [];
if (isBinary) { if (isBinary) {
const probability = q.community_prediction.full.q2; const probability = q.community_prediction?.full.q2;
if (probability !== undefined) { if (probability !== undefined) {
options = [ options = [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",
probability: probability, probability: probability,
type: "PROBABILITY", type: "PROBABILITY"
}, }, {
{
name: "No", name: "No",
probability: 1 - probability, probability: 1 - probability,
type: "PROBABILITY", type: "PROBABILITY"
}, },
]; ];
} }
} }
return { return {
id: `${platformName}-${q.id}`, id: `${platformName}-${
q.id
}`,
options, options,
qualityindicators: { qualityindicators: {
numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions, numforecasts: q.number_of_predictions
}, },
extra: { extra: {
resolution_data: { resolution_data: {
publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time, publish_time: apiQuestion.publish_time,
resolution: apiQuestion.resolution, resolution: apiQuestion.resolution,
close_time: apiQuestion.close_time, close_time: apiQuestion.close_time,
resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time, resolve_time: apiQuestion.resolve_time
}, }
}, }
}; };
}; };
if (apiQuestion.type === "group") { if (apiQuestion.type === "group") {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id); let apiQuestionDetailsTemp
if (apiQuestionDetails.type !== "group") { try{
throw new Error("Expected `group` type"); // shouldn't happen, this is mostly for typescript apiQuestionDetailsTemp = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
} }
return (apiQuestionDetails.sub_questions || []) const apiQuestionDetails = apiQuestionDetailsTemp
.filter((q) => !skip(q)) if (apiQuestionDetails.type !== "group") {
.map((sq) => { console.log("Error: expected `group` type")
return [] //throw new Error("Expected `group` type"); // shouldn't happen, this is mostly for typescript
}else{
try{
let result = (apiQuestionDetails.sub_questions || []).filter((q) => ! skip(q)).map((sq) => {
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq); const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(sq);
return { return {
...tmp, ... tmp,
title: `${apiQuestion.title} (${sq.title})`, title: `${
apiQuestion.title
} (${
sq.title
})`,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "", description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: `https://www.metaculus.com${apiQuestion.page_url}?sub-question=${sq.id}`, url: `https://www.metaculus.com${
apiQuestion.page_url
}?sub-question=${
sq.id
}`
}; };
}); });
return result
}catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
}
} else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") { } else if (apiQuestion.type === "forecast") {
if (apiQuestion.group) { if (apiQuestion.group) {
return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level return []; // sub-question, should be handled on the group level
} }
if (skip(apiQuestion)) { if (skip(apiQuestion)) {
console.log(`- [Skipping]: ${
apiQuestion.title
}`)
/*console.log(`Close time: ${
apiQuestion.close_time
}, resolve time: ${
apiQuestion.resolve_time
}`)*/
return []; return [];
} }
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
try{
const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id); const apiQuestionDetails = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(apiQuestion.id);
const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion); const tmp = buildFetchedQuestion(apiQuestion);
return [ return [{
{ ... tmp,
...tmp,
title: apiQuestion.title, title: apiQuestion.title,
description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "", description: apiQuestionDetails.description || "",
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url, url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + apiQuestion.page_url
}, },];
]; }catch(error){
console.log(error)
return []
}
} else { } else {
if (apiQuestion.type !== "claim") { if (apiQuestion.type !== "claim") { // should never happen, since `discriminator` in JTD schema causes a strict runtime check
// should never happen, since `discriminator` in JTD schema causes a strict runtime check console.log(`Unknown metaculus question type: ${
console.log(
`Unknown metaculus question type: ${
(apiQuestion as any).type (apiQuestion as any).type
}, skipping` }, skipping`);
);
} }
return []; return [];
} }
@ -125,19 +154,25 @@ export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
label: "Metaculus", label: "Metaculus",
color: "#006669", color: "#006669",
version: "v2", version: "v2",
fetcherArgs: ["id", "debug"], fetcherArgs: [
"id", "debug"
],
async fetcher(opts) { async fetcher(opts) {
let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = []; let allQuestions: FetchedQuestion[] = [];
if (opts.args?.id) { if (opts.args ?. id) {
try{
console.log("Using optional id arg.")
const id = Number(opts.args.id); const id = Number(opts.args.id);
const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(id); const apiQuestion = await fetchSingleApiQuestion(id);
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion); const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(apiQuestion);
console.log(questions); console.log(questions);
return { return {questions, partial: true};
questions,
partial: true, }catch(error){
}; console.log(error)
return {questions: [], partial: true};
}
} }
let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/"; let next: string | null = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/";
@ -148,14 +183,17 @@ export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
await sleep(SLEEP_TIME); await sleep(SLEEP_TIME);
const apiQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(next); const apiQuestions: ApiMultipleQuestions = await fetchApiQuestions(next);
const results = apiQuestions.results; const results = apiQuestions.results;
// console.log(results)
let j = false; let j = false;
for (const result of results) { for (const result of results) {
const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(result); const questions = await apiQuestionToFetchedQuestions(result);
// console.log(questions)
for (const question of questions) { for (const question of questions) {
console.log(`- ${question.title}`); console.log(`- ${
if ((!j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args?.debug) { question.title
}`);
if ((! j && i % 20 === 0) || opts.args ?. debug) {
console.log(question); console.log(question);
j = true; j = true;
} }
@ -167,20 +205,16 @@ export const metaculus: Platform<"id" | "debug"> = {
i += 1; i += 1;
} }
return { return {questions: allQuestions, partial: false};
questions: allQuestions,
partial: false,
};
}, },
calculateStars(data) { calculateStars(data) {
const { numforecasts } = data.qualityindicators; const {numforecasts} = data.qualityindicators;
const nuno = () => const nuno = () => (numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
(numforecasts || 0) > 300 ? 4 : (numforecasts || 0) > 100 ? 3 : 2;
const eli = () => 3; const eli = () => 3;
const misha = () => 3; const misha = () => 3;
const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]); const starsDecimal = average([nuno(), eli(), misha()]);
const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal); const starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
return starsInteger; return starsInteger;
}, }
}; };

View File

@ -17,12 +17,14 @@ Router.events.on("routeChangeStart", (as, { shallow }) => {
Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done()); Router.events.on("routeChangeComplete", () => NProgress.done());
Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done()); Router.events.on("routeChangeError", () => NProgress.done());
function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) { function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) {
return ( return (
<PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org"> <PlausibleProvider domain="metaforecast.org">
<Component {...pageProps} /> <Component {...pageProps} />
</PlausibleProvider> </PlausibleProvider>
); );
// Workaround in package.json for: https://github.com/vercel/next.js/issues/36019#issuecomment-1103266481
} }
export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), { export default withUrqlClient((ssr) => getUrqlClientOptions(ssr), {

View File

@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ export const Spinner: React.FC = () => (
cy="12" cy="12"
r="10" r="10"
stroke="currentColor" stroke="currentColor"
stroke-width="4" strokeWidth="4"
></circle> ></circle>
<path <path
className="opacity-75" className="opacity-75"

View File

@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ const getCurrencySymbolIfNeeded = ({
"openInterest", "openInterest",
"liquidity", "liquidity",
]; ];
let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket"]; let dollarPlatforms = ["predictit", "kalshi", "polymarket", "insight"];
if (indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol.includes(indicator)) { if (indicatorsWhichNeedCurrencySymbol.includes(indicator)) {
if (dollarPlatforms.includes(platform)) { if (dollarPlatforms.includes(platform)) {
return "$"; return "$";
@ -172,6 +172,7 @@ export const QuestionFooter: React.FC<Props> = ({
> >
{question.platform.label {question.platform.label
.replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen") .replace("Good Judgment Open", "GJOpen")
.replace("Insight Prediction", "Insight")
.replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")} .replace(/ /g, "\u00a0")}
</div> </div>
<div <div

View File

@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
url: "https://metaforecast.org", url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast", platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast", platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query?", description: "Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'?",
options: [ options: [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",
@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ export default async function searchWithAlgolia({
url: "https://metaforecast.org", url: "https://metaforecast.org",
platform: "metaforecast", platform: "metaforecast",
platformLabel: "metaforecast", platformLabel: "metaforecast",
description: "Maybe try a broader query? That said, we could be wrong.", description: "Maybe try a broader query? Maybe try a broader query, e.g., reduce the number of 'stars' by clicking in 'Advanced options'? That said, we could be wrong.",
options: [ options: [
{ {
name: "Yes", name: "Yes",

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