From e2adcf95f44f5ba92a5b11da4977bf3dab63af1c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: NunoSempere <nuno.sempere@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2021 15:24:56 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] feat: Added Algolia to search

Also some light cleanup necessary to Algolia, e.g., numforecasts is now guaranteed to be a Number() (or a NaN, in case something goes very wrong)
---
 .gitignore                                    |     9 +-
 done.txt                                      |    48 -
 metaforecasts.json                            | 31540 ++++++-------
 node_modules/.package-lock.json               |   136 +
 package-lock.json                             |   273 +
 package.json                                  |     1 +
 src/index.js                                  |    10 +-
 .../metaforecast-algolia-configuration.json   |    61 +
 src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js         |     4 +-
 src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js               |     6 +-
 src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch-old.js       |   201 -
 src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js           |     4 +-
 src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js                 |     4 +-
 src/platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js          |     2 +-
 src/platforms/foretold-fetch.js               |     2 +-
 src/platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js        |     4 +-
 src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js                 |     9 +
 src/platforms/metaculus-fetch.js              |     2 +-
 src/utils/algolia.js                          |    23 +
 src/utils/doEverything.js                     |     3 +-
 src/utils/manualDownloadFromMongo.js          |     4 +-
 temp.txt                                      | 38251 ----------------
 22 files changed, 15691 insertions(+), 54906 deletions(-)
 delete mode 100644 done.txt
 create mode 100644 src/input/metaforecast-algolia-configuration.json
 delete mode 100644 src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch-old.js
 create mode 100644 src/utils/algolia.js
 delete mode 100644 temp.txt

diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
index 067afb5..77b83e8 100644
--- a/.gitignore
+++ b/.gitignore
@@ -1,7 +1,14 @@
+## Node modules
 node_modules/
 
+## Security
 **/betfaircertificates/
 **/privatekeys.json
 
+## Personal notes
 possiblenewsources.md
-NotesHeroku.md
\ No newline at end of file
+NotesHeroku.md
+AlgoliaNotes.md
+
+## Build artifacts
+done.txt
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/done.txt b/done.txt
deleted file mode 100644
index 4b947f6..0000000
--- a/done.txt
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,48 +0,0 @@
-Do 05 Aug 2021 22:52:01 CEST
-Got cookie: mongo...
-Connected correctly to server
-Updating document goodjudgment-questions in collection metaforecastCollection in database metaforecastDatabase with approximate size 0.3 MB
-Sample: 
-[
-    {
-        "title": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will taper its monthly quantitative easing bond purchases?</a>",
-        "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
-        "platform": "Good Judgment",
-        "description": "The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, are expected to taper down <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/the-fed-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-campaign-to-prepare-markets-for-tapering-its-asset-purchases.html\" target=\"_blank\">eventually</a>. The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\">FOMC</a>. As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">increasing</a> its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month.\" The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month, irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities being purchased. The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo <a href=\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements\" target=\"_blank\">operations</a> are immaterial.",
-        "options": [
-            {
-                "name": "Before 23 September 2021",
-                "probability": 0.33,
-                "type": "PROBABILITY"
-            },
-            {
-                "name": "Between 23 September 2021 and 15 December 2021",
-                "probability": 0.62,
-                "type": "PROBABILITY"
-            },
-            {
-                "name": "Between 16 December 2021 and 16 March 2022",
-                "probability": 0.04,
-                "type": "PROBABILITY"
-            },
-            {
-                "name": "Between 17 March 2022 and 15 June 2022",
-                "probability": 0.01,
-                "type": "PROBABILITY"
-            },
-            {
-                "name": "Not before 16 June 2022",
-                "probability": 0,
-                "type": "PROBABILITY"
-            }
-        ],
-        "timestamp": "2021-08-05T20:52:04.396Z",
-        "qualityindicators": {
-            "stars": 4
-        },
-        "extra": {
-            "superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1508\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c6c4cc\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n      <br>\n      Opened 11 June 2021<br>\n      <br>\n      The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed\n      securities, begun early in the pandemic, are expected to taper down <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/the-fed-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-campaign-to-prepare-markets-for-tapering-its-asset-purchases.html\" target=\"_blank\">eventually</a>.\n      The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the\n      <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\">FOMC</a>.\n      As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">increasing</a>\n      its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and\n      of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month.\"\n      The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month,\n      irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency\n      mortgage-backed securities being purchased. The date a reduction would\n      take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the\n      labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or\n      reverse repo <a href=\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements\" target=\"_blank\">operations</a>\n      are immaterial.<br>\n      <br>\n      Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n      <br>\n      <hr><br>\n      <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n      <br>\n      26 July 2021 - The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and\n      mortgage-backed securities, resumed early in the pandemic, are expected to\n      taper down eventually. According to Good Judgment's Superforecasters, the\n      announcement is likely to come \"sooner rather than later,\" with a\n      statement around the 21-22 September, 2-3 November, or 14-15 December 2021\n      FOMC meeting the most likely outcome (currently 98% probability in total).<br>\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n      <br>\n      24 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The next FOMC meeting after September is in\n        November--perhaps too late to allow lengthy notice prior to the start of\n        the taper.<br>\n      </em><br>\n      20 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Based on Fed Chairman Powell's recent <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-powell-says-economy-a-ways-off-bond-taper-inflation-ease-2021-07-14/\" target=\"_blank\">remarks</a>\n        to Congress, increasing the probability of the \"between 23 September\n        2021 and 15 December 2021\" timeline. I would expect more remarks to\n        prepare the market if a QE tapering announcement were to be coming in\n        the next two months.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      19 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Barclays is <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/07/15/what-does-the-federal-reserve-mean-when-it-talks-about-tapering/amp/\" target=\"_blank\">anticipating</a>\n        the Fed will begin tapering its asset purchases as soon as this year.\n        I'm leaning toward an announcement in September. Reason? They will want\n        to do tapering before they raise rates. If they announce in September,\n        they can work out the details in November and start soon thereafter.\n        They can then gauge the effect for a couple of quarters and by mid-2022\n        raise rates if inflation stays high.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      15 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The high inflation data and low bond yields give\n        the Fed a golden opportunity to announce the intent to start tapering.\n        The taper itself should begin by the end of Q4. The timing of the\n        announcement is a little tricky. There may not be enough consensus to\n        make the announcement at the upcoming FOMC this month. Powell seemed <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-15/fed-s-bullard-urges-start-of-tapering-bonds-with-jobs-goals-met\" target=\"_blank\">tentative</a>\n        in comments this week. Bullard and others have been calling for taper.\n        However, as the next meeting after July is not until September, I also\n        don't think there is an upside in waiting until then (which could mean\n        two more months of bad inflation data without action, and perhaps cause\n        a backup in longer yields).</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Mary Daley <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-07-02/feds-daly-appropriate-to-consider-tapering-later-this-year\" target=\"_blank\">suggests</a>\n        the Fed should begin slowing bond purchases \"later this year or early\n        next.\" The Economist covers a possible <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/07/01/does-americas-hot-housing-market-still-need-propping-up\" target=\"_blank\">strategy</a>\n        for a reduction in purchases of mortgage backed assets.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The headline inflation number will have to enter\n        into the Fed's calculations. \"Before 23 September 2021\" therefore\n        becomes more likely.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Higher inflation number again today. More likely\n        now the Fed will announce early to prepare markets for the tapering next\n        year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      30 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>It will happen, but when? Leaning a bit more to\n        the November meeting. They like to give the market a <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-says-he-would-not-rule-out-2022-rate-hike-2021-06-29/\" target=\"_blank\">long</a>\n        <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-debate-scaling-back-mortgage-bond-purchases-at-faster-clip-11624872602\" target=\"_blank\">heads-up</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      19 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Generally focusing on \"Before 23 September 2021\"\n        and \"Between 23 September 2021 and 15 December 2021\" for now, but there\n        may be a longer tail on this if inflation and recovery prove to be more\n        transitory.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      18 Jun 21 - Barclays moves <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/barclays-moves-up-expectations-for-fed-tapering-after-fomc-meeting-11623959423\" target=\"_blank\">up</a>\n      expectations for Fed tapering after FOMC meeting. Comment: <em>I expect\n        they will in September. Next <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434721-fed-starting-campaign-to-taper-asset-purchases\" target=\"_blank\">meetings</a>\n        are 21-22 September and 2-3 November.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>It appears Powell wants to give 2-3 months'\n        advance notice. I don't see much reason for QE right now: asset prices\n        and credit risk appetite aren't the problem (as they were after\n        2008-09), but to a Fed economist with a hammer everything looks like a\n        nail. Economists may want to see what happens after extended\n        unemployment benefits run out in September. Whether Biden's budget\n        including many expansive new spending programs gets passed will also\n        have an impact on timing. I think early Q1 of next year is the likeliest\n        timeframe for tapering QE, which means an announcement probably in Q4 of\n        this year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      16 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Fed says first taper discussions started in\n        April. With the economy growing, inflation higher, increased reserves\n        interest rate at the central bank, taper is just a matter of time. More\n        important may be the initial decrease from the current purchase $120b in\n        Treasurys and MBS assets. Lower decreases over longer periods of time\n        (or even the extrapolation from a single data point) would be more\n        market-friendly. Perhaps the sooner the Fed announces a small reduction\n        in purchases, the sooner the market will get past the inevitable\n        overreaction to the reduced purchases. I expect the announcement will be\n        prior to year end.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      15 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>A lot of the <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-investors-are-watching-fed-taper-talk-inflation-2021-06-15/\" target=\"_blank\">coverage</a>\n        I'm seeing has the flavor of something like this <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-investors-are-watching-fed-taper-talk-inflation-2021-06-15/\" target=\"_blank\">happening</a>\n        sooner rather than later.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Seems like early <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/21/the-federal-reserves-so-called-taper-talk-could-keep-markets-on-edge-through-the-summer.html\" target=\"_blank\">discussions</a>\n        in June and July will be followed by a strategy in <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-could-pencil-in-earlier-rate-increase-at-meeting-11623663001\" target=\"_blank\">August</a>\n        and an announcement of tapering in the <a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-fed-to-announce-qe-taper-in-aug-or-sept-on-rising-inflation-concerns-2021-06-10\" target=\"_blank\">fall</a>--several\n        months in advance of when it is due to start--to minimize the impact on\n        markets.</em><em></em><em></em><br>\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      <hr> <br><center><input type=\"button\" id=\"btn1508\" style=\"font-size:14pt;background:#8a2535;color:white;border-radius:5px;\" value=\"Close Superforecaster Analysis\" onclick=\"showReport(1508);\"></center></div><br>"
-        }
-    }
-]
-Done
diff --git a/metaforecasts.json b/metaforecasts.json
index 0fc5f31..4abbd19 100644
--- a/metaforecasts.json
+++ b/metaforecasts.json
@@ -2599,154 +2599,154 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "No Referendum Before 2022",
-        "probability": 0.923635066672831,
+        "probability": 0.9229757119452721,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Italy",
-        "probability": 0.0027181260533514742,
+        "probability": 0.0036564037819370398,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "France",
-        "probability": 0.00951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.009506649833036302,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Poland",
-        "probability": 0.0015855735311216933,
+        "probability": 0.001584441638839384,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Hungary",
-        "probability": 0.00475672059336508,
+        "probability": 0.004526976110969669,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Germany",
-        "probability": 0.0025035371544026735,
+        "probability": 0.002501749956062185,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ireland",
-        "probability": 0.0031711470622433867,
+        "probability": 0.003168883277678768,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "United Kingdom",
-        "probability": 0.001902688237346032,
+        "probability": 0.0019013299666072606,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Netherlands",
-        "probability": 0.013590630266757369,
+        "probability": 0.013580928332909003,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Denmark",
-        "probability": 0.017297165794054836,
+        "probability": 0.017284817878247823,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Spain",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Austria",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Greece",
-        "probability": 0.0017617483679129924,
+        "probability": 0.0017604907098215377,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Czech Republic",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Portugal",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Slovenia",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Luxembourg",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sweden",
-        "probability": 0.0010570490207477954,
+        "probability": 0.0010562944258929224,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Cyprus",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Slovakia",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Bulgaria",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Finland",
-        "probability": 0.0012856001603689406,
+        "probability": 0.0012846824098697706,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Malta",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Belgium",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Croatia",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Estonia",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Latvia",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Lithuania",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Romania",
-        "probability": 0.000951344118673016,
+        "probability": 0.0009506649833036303,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:29.868Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:26.886Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 4,
-      "volume": 71455.27
+      "volume": 71602.69
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "No Referendum Before 2022, Italy, France, Poland, Hungary, Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Austria, Greece, Czech Republic, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Sweden, Cyprus, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Finland, Malta, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania"
   },
@@ -2897,10 +2897,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:29.869Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:26.886Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 4,
-      "volume": 9178.43
+      "volume": 9171.43
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "No Country Before 2023, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Greece, France, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Finland, Spain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia"
   },
@@ -2912,24 +2912,24 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Coalition",
-        "probability": 0.5452795711606934,
+        "probability": 0.5538052001842915,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Labor",
-        "probability": 0.4535734614654859,
+        "probability": 0.44502203586237704,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Any Other Party",
-        "probability": 0.0011469673738207689,
+        "probability": 0.0011727639533314405,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:29.869Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:26.887Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 4,
-      "volume": 115127.65
+      "volume": 116903.12
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Coalition, Labor, Any Other Party"
   },
@@ -2941,204 +2941,204 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Rishi Sunak",
-        "probability": 0.2917723010251782,
+        "probability": 0.2917869012044714,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
-        "probability": 0.07967628220302943,
+        "probability": 0.0739888213768481,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Michael Gove",
-        "probability": 0.11019060304674283,
+        "probability": 0.10569831625264013,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Liz Truss",
-        "probability": 0.06905277790929217,
+        "probability": 0.07672914809450915,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Dominic Raab",
-        "probability": 0.05918809535082186,
+        "probability": 0.059191057101478484,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Priti Patel",
-        "probability": 0.04932341279235155,
+        "probability": 0.05179217496379367,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Tom Tugendhat",
-        "probability": 0.015935256440605887,
+        "probability": 0.01593605383501344,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ben Wallace",
-        "probability": 0.025894791715984564,
+        "probability": 0.025896087481896837,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Matt Hancock",
-        "probability": 0.0025894791715984564,
+        "probability": 0.0025896087481896836,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sajid Javid",
-        "probability": 0.06092892168466956,
+        "probability": 0.06093197054563961,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
-        "probability": 0.015935256440605887,
+        "probability": 0.01593605383501344,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "James Cleverly",
-        "probability": 0.02354071974180415,
+        "probability": 0.02354189771081531,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Geoffrey Cox",
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-    "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "probability": 0.10552631578947368,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.398Z",
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-  {
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-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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@@ -22045,7 +21997,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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       "numforecasts": 34,
       "numforecasters": 26,
@@ -22077,6 +22029,54 @@
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
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+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22093,7 +22093,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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@@ -22117,7 +22117,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
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       "numforecasters": 24,
@@ -22141,7 +22141,7 @@
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       }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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       "numforecasters": 24,
@@ -22150,24 +22150,24 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
-    "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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     "options": [
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-        "probability": 0.35119999999999996,
+        "probability": 0.09692307692307692,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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@@ -22189,7 +22189,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
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@@ -22213,7 +22213,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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@@ -22221,30 +22221,6 @@
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-  {
-    "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
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-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-  },
   {
     "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",
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@@ -22261,7 +22237,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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       "numforecasters": 23,
@@ -22270,22 +22246,46 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
-    "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
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-        "probability": 0.09692307692307692,
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+        "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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@@ -22294,24 +22294,24 @@
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   {
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-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.19347826086956524,
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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@@ -22333,7 +22333,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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@@ -22341,30 +22341,6 @@
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   {
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@@ -22381,7 +22357,7 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
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@@ -22390,24 +22366,48 @@
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   {
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+    "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
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-        "probability": 0.29724137931034483,
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
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+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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@@ -22429,7 +22429,7 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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@@ -22437,30 +22437,6 @@
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-  {
-    "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
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   {
     "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
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@@ -22477,7 +22453,7 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
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       "numforecasts": 24,
       "numforecasters": 22,
@@ -22485,6 +22461,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.19347826086956524,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8065217391304348,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 23,
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+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22501,7 +22501,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "numforecasters": 22,
@@ -22509,6 +22509,54 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.940Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 27,
+      "numforecasters": 22,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3391666666666666,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6608333333333334,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 48,
+      "numforecasters": 21,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22525,7 +22573,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "numforecasters": 21,
@@ -22533,6 +22581,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5815384615384616,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.41846153846153844,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 39,
+      "numforecasters": 21,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22549,7 +22621,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "numforecasters": 21,
@@ -22573,7 +22645,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "numforecasters": 21,
@@ -22597,7 +22669,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "numforecasters": 21,
@@ -22605,54 +22677,6 @@
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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-    "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 41,
-      "numforecasters": 21,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-      "numforecasters": 21,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22669,7 +22693,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
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       "numforecasters": 21,
@@ -22678,94 +22702,22 @@
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   {
-    "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5815384615384616,
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-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-      "numforecasters": 20,
-      "stars": 1
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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-  {
-    "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "probability": 0.6890625,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
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       "numforecasters": 20,
@@ -22789,7 +22741,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
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       "numforecasts": 22,
       "numforecasters": 20,
@@ -22797,6 +22749,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
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+      },
+      {
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+        "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "numforecasters": 19,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22813,7 +22789,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
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       "numforecasts": 22,
       "numforecasters": 20,
@@ -22821,6 +22797,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 35,
+      "numforecasters": 20,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -22837,7 +22837,103 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "numforecasters": 20,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3109375,
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+        "probability": 0.6890625,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
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+      "numforecasters": 20,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 22,
+      "numforecasters": 20,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.943Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 21,
+      "numforecasters": 20,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
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@@ -22861,7 +22957,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.399Z",
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@@ -22869,54 +22965,6 @@
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   },
-  {
-    "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
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-  },
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-    "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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   {
     "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
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@@ -22933,7 +22981,7 @@
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@@ -22957,7 +23005,7 @@
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@@ -22965,150 +23013,6 @@
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-  {
-    "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
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-    "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
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-    "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
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-    "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
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-    "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
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   {
     "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
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@@ -23125,7 +23029,7 @@
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       "numforecasters": 19,
@@ -23133,6 +23037,78 @@
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "numforecasters": 19,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "probability": 0.7243478260869566,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "numforecasters": 19,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "numforecasters": 19,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -23149,7 +23125,7 @@
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       "numforecasts": 22,
       "numforecasters": 19,
@@ -23157,6 +23133,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "numforecasters": 18,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -23173,7 +23173,7 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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@@ -23197,7 +23197,7 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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       "numforecasters": 19,
@@ -23205,78 +23205,6 @@
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-    "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
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-    "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
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-    "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
     "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
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@@ -23293,7 +23221,7 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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       "numforecasters": 19,
@@ -23302,29 +23230,125 @@
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   {
-    "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
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+    "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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       {
         "name": "Yes",
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       {
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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-      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "numforecasts": 20,
       "numforecasters": 19,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.8675,
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.13249999999999995,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 24,
+      "numforecasters": 19,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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@@ -23445,6 +23421,30 @@
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+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "numforecasters": 17,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.35,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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       "numforecasters": 17,
@@ -23749,7 +23749,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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@@ -23773,7 +23773,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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       "numforecasts": 18,
       "numforecasters": 17,
@@ -23781,6 +23781,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 21,
+      "numforecasters": 17,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -23797,7 +23821,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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       "numforecasters": 17,
@@ -23806,120 +23830,72 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
-    "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
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+    "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5728571428571428,
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-    "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+    "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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   {
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+    "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
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@@ -23941,7 +23917,7 @@
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@@ -23950,24 +23926,24 @@
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+    "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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     "options": [
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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@@ -23989,7 +23965,151 @@
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "numforecasters": 16,
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "numforecasters": 16,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.944Z",
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+      "numforecasters": 16,
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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+      "numforecasts": 18,
+      "numforecasters": 16,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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@@ -24013,7 +24133,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.403Z",
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       "numforecasters": 16,
@@ -24022,94 +24142,22 @@
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+    "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
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-    "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
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@@ -24157,7 +24181,7 @@
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@@ -24165,54 +24189,6 @@
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@@ -24469,7 +24229,7 @@
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       "numforecasters": 15,
@@ -24477,6 +24237,30 @@
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     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -24493,7 +24277,7 @@
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@@ -24502,48 +24286,240 @@
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+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasters": 15,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.7655,
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+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "numforecasters": 15,
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.0955,
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@@ -24565,7 +24541,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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       "numforecasts": 20,
       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24573,6 +24549,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "name": "Yes",
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+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -24589,7 +24589,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24598,22 +24598,22 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.062,
+        "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
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       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.938,
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24621,30 +24621,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-      "stars": 1
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "ETI is AGI",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -24661,7 +24637,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24685,7 +24661,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24693,30 +24669,6 @@
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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-  {
-    "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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   {
     "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
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@@ -24733,7 +24685,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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@@ -24742,22 +24694,142 @@
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+    "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
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       {
         "name": "No",
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 17,
+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 19,
+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
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+      {
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+        "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.14,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.86,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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@@ -24781,7 +24853,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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@@ -24790,94 +24862,46 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
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+    "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
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       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
+        "probability": 0.12823529411764711,
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       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.14,
+        "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.86,
+        "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-        "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
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-      {
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-        "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
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-        "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 15,
       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24901,7 +24925,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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       "numforecasts": 15,
       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24910,22 +24934,46 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
+        "probability": 0.062,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
+        "probability": 0.938,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasters": 14,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.05941176470588236,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9405882352941176,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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       "numforecasts": 17,
       "numforecasters": 14,
@@ -24933,54 +24981,6 @@
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
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   {
     "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",
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@@ -24997,7 +24997,7 @@
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@@ -25006,70 +25006,94 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
-    "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.06625,
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         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.93375,
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-      "numforecasts": 32,
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   },
   {
-    "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
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+    "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4446153846153846,
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       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5553846153846154,
+        "probability": 0.2610526315789474,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.945Z",
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-      "numforecasts": 26,
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   },
   {
-    "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.040769230769230766,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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+      "numforecasts": 15,
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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       "numforecasters": 13,
@@ -25093,7 +25117,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       "numforecasters": 13,
@@ -25101,54 +25125,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-        "probability": 0.8892307692307693,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-        "name": "Yes",
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.893125,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -25165,7 +25141,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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       "numforecasters": 13,
@@ -25173,246 +25149,6 @@
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
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-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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-      "numforecasts": 15,
-      "numforecasters": 13,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6271428571428571,
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.3728571428571429,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
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-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "10 million",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08416666666666667,
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9158333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.404Z",
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-      "numforecasts": 36,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-  {
-    "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "Yes",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "probability": 0.853125,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-  {
-    "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
     "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -25429,7 +25165,7 @@
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@@ -25438,70 +25174,94 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
-    "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
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+    "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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         "name": "Yes",
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         "name": "No",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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   {
-    "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.89,
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         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
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+    "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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@@ -25510,22 +25270,22 @@
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   {
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+    "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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@@ -25534,70 +25294,94 @@
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+    "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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   {
-    "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
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+    "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.14615384615384616,
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   {
-    "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2675,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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@@ -25621,55 +25405,7 @@
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-  {
-    "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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       "numforecasters": 13,
@@ -25693,7 +25429,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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       "numforecasters": 13,
@@ -25702,46 +25438,286 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
-    "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
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         "name": "No",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
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+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "numforecasters": 13,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "10 million",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+        "name": "Yes",
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+      "numforecasters": 13,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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   {
-    "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
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+    "qualityindicators": {
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+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "qualityindicators": {
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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+  {
+    "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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@@ -25749,318 +25725,6 @@
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-    "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
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-    "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
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-    "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
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-    "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
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-    "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
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-    "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
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-  {
-    "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-  },
-  {
-    "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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   {
     "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
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@@ -26077,7 +25741,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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@@ -26086,46 +25750,22 @@
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   {
-    "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
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+    "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
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         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
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       {
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7533333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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       "numforecasters": 12,
@@ -26149,7 +25789,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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       "numforecasters": 12,
@@ -26158,24 +25798,168 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "100 million",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.007931034482758621,
+        "probability": 0.315625,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9920689655172413,
+        "probability": 0.684375,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 29,
+      "numforecasts": 16,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.24666666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7533333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.41608695652173916,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5839130434782609,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5418518518518518,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.4581481481481482,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 27,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2803846153846154,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7196153846153845,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
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       "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -26197,7 +25981,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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       "numforecasts": 12,
       "numforecasters": 12,
@@ -26205,6 +25989,30 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.07642857142857143,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
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+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9235714285714286,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -26221,7 +26029,175 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.7892307692307692,
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+        "probability": 0.21076923076923082,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
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+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
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+        "probability": 0.3666666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.175,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.825,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "100 million",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.007931034482758621,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9920689655172413,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.946Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 29,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.04642857142857143,
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+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9535714285714285,
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+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3707692307692308,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6292307692307693,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
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       "numforecasts": 13,
       "numforecasters": 12,
@@ -26245,7 +26221,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
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       "numforecasts": 13,
       "numforecasters": 12,
@@ -26253,270 +26229,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
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-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
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-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.315625,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-        "probability": 0.684375,
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-      "numforecasts": 16,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "Yes",
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-  {
-    "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-        "name": "Yes",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-  {
-    "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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-  {
-    "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-        "probability": 0.696,
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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   {
     "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -26533,7 +26245,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
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@@ -26542,433 +26254,289 @@
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   {
-    "title": "By January 1, 2022, at least one domain expert not employed by Giving Green* rates their activism research 4 or better on a 5-point scale from “very unconvincing” to “very convincing.”",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20January%201,%202022,%20at%20least%20one%20domain%20expert%20not%20employed%20by%20Giving%20Green*%20rates%20their%20activism%20research%204%20or%20better%20on%20a%205-point%20scale%20from%20“very%20unconvincing”%20to%20“very%20convincing.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-  {
-    "title": "(Agreement) Should a definition of goal-directedness pass this test for goals? (0 = full disagreement, 100 = full agreement)",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=(Agreement)%20Should%20a%20definition%20of%20goal-directedness%20pass%20this%20test%20for%20goals?%20(0%20=%20full%20disagreement,%20100%20=%20full%20agreement)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-  {
-    "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "Yes",
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-        "probability": 0.0675,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
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       "stars": 1
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
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-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.024166666666666666,
+        "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9758333333333333,
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6481818181818181,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.3518181818181819,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
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-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5307407407407407,
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-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.46925925925925926,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 27,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2809090909090909,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7190909090909091,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.16857142857142857,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8314285714285714,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4592307692307692,
+        "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5407692307692308,
+        "probability": 0.533076923076923,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
+        "probability": 0.006,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
+        "probability": 0.994,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.35,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.65,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.09,
+        "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.91,
+        "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
+        "probability": 0.6083333333333334,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7872727272727272,
+        "probability": 0.3916666666666666,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08,
+        "probability": 0.4607142857142857,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.92,
+        "probability": 0.5392857142857144,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2025,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7975,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 16,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5107142857142857,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.4892857142857143,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 12,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -26989,511 +26557,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.406Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
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@@ -27517,7 +26581,7 @@
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@@ -27550,22 +26662,214 @@
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-        "probability": 0.8971428571428571,
+        "probability": 0.8981818181818182,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.57,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "50 million",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 34,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.13666666666666666,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8633333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2809090909090909,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7190909090909091,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.4753846153846154,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5246153846153846,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6836363636363636,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27574,24 +26878,72 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
+        "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
+        "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2475,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7525,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
       "numforecasters": 11,
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -27613,79 +26965,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5846153846153845,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.03769230769230769,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9623076923076923,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 11,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
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-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
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       "numforecasts": 13,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27709,7 +26989,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
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       "numforecasts": 14,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27733,7 +27013,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27757,7 +27037,367 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "(Agreement) Should a definition of goal-directedness pass this test for goals? (0 = full disagreement, 100 = full agreement)",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=(Agreement)%20Should%20a%20definition%20of%20goal-directedness%20pass%20this%20test%20for%20goals?%20(0%20=%20full%20disagreement,%20100%20=%20full%20agreement)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5979166666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.40208333333333335,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 24,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.01,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.99,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5307407407407407,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.46925925925925926,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 27,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.16857142857142857,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8314285714285714,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
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+        "name": "Yes",
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+        "probability": 0.9623076923076923,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.947Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.9325,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.0675,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.546923076923077,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.31384615384615383,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6861538461538461,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.23377083333333332,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7662291666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 24,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.10785714285714286,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8921428571428571,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27781,7 +27421,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 13,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27790,22 +27430,118 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.45692307692307693,
+        "probability": 0.08,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.543076923076923,
+        "probability": 0.92,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5621428571428572,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.43785714285714283,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7872727272727272,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.4307692307692308,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5692307692307692,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 13,
       "numforecasters": 11,
@@ -27814,505 +27550,265 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.309,
+        "probability": 0.40909090909090906,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
+        "probability": 0.5909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
+        "probability": 0.4592307692307692,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
+        "probability": 0.5407692307692308,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
+        "probability": 0.10285714285714287,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+        "probability": 0.8971428571428571,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4107692307692308,
+        "probability": 0.09,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5892307692307692,
+        "probability": 0.91,
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       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 12,
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       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.3681818181818182,
+        "probability": 0.140625,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
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         "name": "No",
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-    "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
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-    "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
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-  {
-    "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
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-  {
-    "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
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-    "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
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-    "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
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-  {
-    "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
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-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.65625,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 16,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
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   {
-    "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+        "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
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       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6481818181818181,
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+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.3518181818181819,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
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+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
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+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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-      "numforecasters": 10,
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.204,
+        "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.796,
+        "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 11,
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       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
+        "probability": 0.20384615384615384,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
+        "probability": 0.7961538461538462,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
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-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 11,
       "stars": 1
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -28333,127 +27829,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
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-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.24600000000000002,
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-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.754,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
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-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.750909090909091,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
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-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
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-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.07416666666666667,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9258333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.158,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.842,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28477,343 +27853,7 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.155,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.845,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.7709999999999999,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.2290000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2963636363636364,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7036363636363636,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.198,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.802,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.789,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.042,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.958,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "numforecasters": 10,
-      "stars": 1
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
-    "platform": "Elicit",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.827,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28837,7 +27877,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 11,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28846,22 +27886,70 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.556,
+        "probability": 0.3346153846153846,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.44399999999999995,
+        "probability": 0.6653846153846155,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3681818181818182,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6318181818181818,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.158,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.842,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28870,22 +27958,22 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.217,
+        "probability": 0.7709999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.783,
+        "probability": 0.2290000000000001,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28894,24 +27982,72 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08857142857142858,
+        "probability": 0.4107692307692308,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9114285714285715,
+        "probability": 0.5892307692307692,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.34375,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.65625,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 16,
       "numforecasters": 10,
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -28933,7 +28069,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 11,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28941,6 +28077,270 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.467,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5329999999999999,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.948Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.27785714285714286,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7221428571428572,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.08857142857142858,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9114285714285715,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2963636363636364,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7036363636363636,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.750909090909091,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.217,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.783,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -28957,7 +28357,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28966,22 +28366,22 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
-    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
     "platform": "Elicit",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.113,
+        "probability": 0.204,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.887,
+        "probability": 0.796,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -28989,6 +28389,198 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.827,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.309,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
     "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -29005,7 +28597,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:01:57.408Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "numforecasters": 10,
@@ -29013,6 +28605,414 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasters": 10,
+      "stars": 1
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+    "platform": "Elicit",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.113,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.887,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:00:55.952Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 10,
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+  {
+    "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
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+  {
+    "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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+  {
+    "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
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+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
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+    "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
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+  {
+    "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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+  {
+    "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
+    "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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-      "superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1422\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c4f890\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n      <br>\n      Opened 9 October 2020<br>\n      <br>\n      In its 2020 report, The <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices\" target=\"_blank\">Conference</a>\n      <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Board</a>\n      reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies\n      explicitly disclosed <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive\" target=\"_blank\">board</a>\n      members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The\n      outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their\n      individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board\n      Practices <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/us/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n      <br>\n      <hr><br>\n      <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n      <br>\n      28 July 2021 - In December 2020, Nasdaq had proposed to amend its rules to\n      require that the companies it lists have at least two diverse directors.\n      The Securities and Exchange Commission decided to postpone the decision on\n      the course of action on the proposal, but the discussion signals a trend\n      toward expectations for increased diversity. The Superforecasters\n      currently see the highest probability (74%) that the percentage of\n      corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms held by racial minorities will\n      be \"between 23% and 27%, inclusive\" in 2021.<br>\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n      <br>\n      23 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Those who were proud of their record reported\n        early. If women are <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/study-racial-diversity-stagnated-corporate-boards-78151865\" target=\"_blank\">26%</a>,\n        racial diversity has lagged that.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The Conference Board reports appear to rely on\n        explicitly disclosed data. I find it noteworthy that there is such a\n        large discrepancy between their reported diversity percentages (22%-23%)\n        and those from GeekWire's analysis (<a href=\"https://www.geekwire.com/2021/push-corporate-board-diversity-growing-pacific-nw-tech-companies-stack/\" target=\"_blank\">12.5%</a>).\n        This certainly supports the view already expressed by several\n        Superforecasters that more transparency might well result in an apparent\n        decrease.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      07 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The companies that were originally reporting\n        their board members' races were likely to be the more diverse ones, so\n        more companies reporting will likely drop the percentage.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      01 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Counter-intuitively, if <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/big-u-s-companies-rush-to-disclose-board-diversity-data\" target=\"_blank\">more</a>\n        companies are reporting in order to support greater accountability, it\n        may drive down the overall percentage.</em><br>\n      Response: <em>Good point. It dilutes data.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Public filings in the Board Diversity <a href=\"https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/center-for-board-effectiveness/articles/missing-pieces-board-diversity-census-fortune-500-sixth-edition.html\" target=\"_blank\">Census</a>\n        \"were reviewed up until June 30, 2020, for a year-over-year comparison.\"\n        This study, therefore, would mostly not reflect the movement on systemic\n        racism that was galvanized by the May 2020 police killing of George\n        Floyd.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>According to new board diversity report from\n        Spencer Stuart, major companies tripled the number of new directors who\n        are Black (comprising about <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/boardroom-diversity-rise-racial-reckoning-hits-private-sector/story?id=78312353\" target=\"_blank\">33%</a>\n        of new directors, compared to 11% last year) and doubled the number who\n        are Latinx (making up 7% of new directors, compared to 3% last year).</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Perhaps not as much progress is being made as\n        thought. The Board Diversity Census, conducted by the Alliance of Board\n        Diversity and the consulting firm Deloitte, found an overwhelming <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-business-c85831a5cec6268e0726c3ce28c39436\" target=\"_blank\">82.5%</a>\n        of directors among Fortune 500 company boards are white.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      10 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>There is a difference between the racial\n        diversity of newly appointed members and the racial diversity of all\n        corporate board seats, especially as some boards have expanded their\n        boards. Nonetheless: \"some <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-business-c85831a5cec6268e0726c3ce28c39436\" target=\"_blank\">32%</a>\n        of newly appointed board members in the S&amp;P 500 were Black,\n        according to an analysis by ISS Corporate Solutions, which advises\n        companies on improving shareholder value and reducing risk. That was a\n        leap compared to 11% during the previous year.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>I may give \"More than 27%\" greater probability\n        if additional sources confirm the Heidrick &amp; Struggles report.\n        Reporting issues could skew the numbers, but I think bias will be for\n        companies that awarded more board seats to racial minorities to report.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>A graph with percentages of diversity in Fortune\n        500 companies in <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-08/black-directors-gained-ground-in-the-boardroom-as-women-latinos-whites-slipped\" target=\"_blank\">2020</a>\n        shows 58.8% Caucasian, 27.7% Black, 3.9% Hispanic, 8.5% Asian, 1.2%\n        Other.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      03 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>An interesting statistic: <a href=\"https://www.directorsandboards.com/articles/singlerevolving-door-government-boardroom\" target=\"_blank\">6%</a>\n        of corporate board appointments this year have gone to political\n        leaders--a group that overall trails the racial diversity of the US\n        population.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      27 May 21 - US companies appoint more Black directors after social justice\n      protests - <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/us-companies-appoint-more-black-directors-after-social-justice-protests-report-2021-05-25/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n      Comment: <em>Achieving 25%, in total, would be a real milestone for the\n        firms.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      26 May 21 - Comment: <em>There have been <a href=\"https://fortune.com/2021/05/25/is-nasdaqs-board-diversity-proposal-already-working/\" target=\"_blank\">47</a>\n        minority appointments in S&amp;P 500 companies since Nasdaq's\n        announcement in December.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 May 21 - Comment: <em>From 1 July 2020 to 19 May 2021, a third of new\n        board members at S&amp;P 500 companies are black. Black directors made\n        up <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/79252e5b-1242-496b-9371-100bcc1327a3\" target=\"_blank\">10.6%</a>\n        of S&amp;P 500 board members as of 19 May, compared with 8.3% in 2020\n        and 7.8% in 2019.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      19 May 21 - Comment: <em>Since last June, <a href=\"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boards-are-adding-more-women-and-minorities-ahead-of-nasdaq-rule/\" target=\"_blank\">145</a>\n        S&amp;P 500 companies have added at least one black director, at a\n        higher rate compared to past years. Latino board appointments quadrupled\n        from a year ago.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 May 21 - Comment: <em>The fact that President Biden <a href=\"https://19thnews.org/2021/04/biden-promised-the-most-diverse-administration-ever-heres-how-hes-doing/\" target=\"_blank\">promised</a>\n        to have a Cabinet that reflected the diversity of the country may have\n        some bleed-over effect into the corporate world.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 May 21 - Comment: <em>I suspect racial equity will be <a href=\"https://justcapital.com/reports/corporate-racial-equity-tracker/#the-corporate-racial-equity-tracker\" target=\"_blank\">harder</a>\n        than gender equity, which also took years.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      02 May 21 - Comment: <em>California has a <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/10/10/new-law-requires-diversity-on-boards-of-california-based-companies/\" target=\"_blank\">law</a>\n        demanding diversity. Yet, it could be a LGBQT person and not racially or\n        ethnically diverse.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Racial diversification of boards appears to be\n        moving at a fraction of the pace of gender diversification, but the\n        pressure is on from <a href=\"https://www.crainsnewyork.com/finance/investors-pressure-corporate-america-record-diversity-push\" target=\"_blank\">shareholders</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>California's AB 979 will apply at year end, so I\n        expect much more onboarding of Latinos happening toward that deadline.\n        Even if the law is <a href=\"https://www.natlawreview.com/article/constitutional-challenge-to-ab-979-moving-toward-trial\" target=\"_blank\">struck\n          down</a> eventually, firms should hedge in the meantime by\n        diversifying.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>This may take longer than the timeframe of this\n        question. Despite best of intentions, boards change slowly.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      22 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>US publicly listed companies more than <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/u-s-firms-quadruple-latino-board-hires-in-slow-diversity-push\" target=\"_blank\">quadrupled</a>\n        the appointment of Latino executives to their boards in Q1 2021.<br>\n      </em><br>\n      12 Apr 21 - Shareholders target \"white man's world\" with record <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/06/shareholders-diversity-data-479159%C2%A0\" target=\"_blank\">demands</a>\n      for diversity data. Comment: <em>US companies are coming under intense\n        pressure to diversify their executive ranks.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The question asks about racial/ethnic diversity,\n        and in some of the numbers on diversity numbers they include gender.\n        This <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/corporate-boards-black-hispanic-directors.html\" target=\"_blank\">NYT</a>\n        article from September says for racial and ethnic groups, it is 12.5%,\n        and this <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/09/08/addressing-the-challenge-of-board-racial-diversity/\" target=\"_blank\">article</a>\n        backs that up. <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-companies-continuing-to-improve-board-diversity-2020-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-301193833.html\" target=\"_blank\">22%</a>\n        of new S&amp;P 500 directors are minorities, down from 23% last year.\n        Minority women represent 10% of the incoming class, consistent with last\n        year, and minority men represent 12% of the new directors, a slight\n        decrease from 13% last year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The baseline is about 22%-23%. It's obvious that\n        there is more interest in addressing this issue. The Conference Board is\n        even focused on <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/publications/ROI-of-Inclusion-ES\" target=\"_blank\">research</a>\n        and <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/agendas/979021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">conferences</a>\n        aimed at these kinds of initiatives. But to get above 27%, you'd need 25\n        people added to the corporate boards in one year. It took 10 years for\n        women's representation to go from 22% to 47%. That's a rate of 2.5% a\n        year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      05 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Bloomberg looked at the EEO-1 forms for 37 out\n        of the nation's 100 largest corporations and observed that in the past\n        six months businesses have increasingly sought to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/diversity-equality-in-american-business/\" target=\"_blank\">address</a>\n        the issue of racial diversity.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      31 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Turnover in board of directors is usually slow\n        and we would need to get 6% points vs 2020 to reach \"more than 27%.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      28 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>In addition to Meg Whitman, <a href=\"https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2021/03/25/gm-add-two-new-directors-further-diversifying-its-boardroom/6965869002/\" target=\"_blank\">GM</a>\n        added Asian American Mark Tatum to the board.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      23 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>The baseline for 2019 and 2020 was 23% and 22%,\n        and problems like diversity, while large in public consciousness, might\n        not be playing as big of a role in boardrooms in the middle of a\n        pandemic. According to a <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-companies-continuing-to-improve-board-diversity-2020-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-301193833.html\" target=\"_blank\">survey</a>,\n        \"one-quarter (24%) of S&amp;P 500 companies report having a commitment\n        to recruiting from a diverse slate of candidates when considering new\n        directors.\"<br>\n      </em><br>\n      18 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Apparently the rate of change is <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/corporate-boards-wont-hit-gender-parity-until-2032-new-report-warns.html\" target=\"_blank\">slowing</a>:\n        22% of new directors in the S&amp;P 500 in 2020, down from 23% the prior\n        year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Given that the vote on new rules will not take\n        place until second half of year, I doubt it is going up much this year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      12 Mar 21 - SEC decision <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3671567-sec-delays-ruling-on-nasdaqs-board-diversity-plan\" target=\"_blank\">postponed</a>\n      to this summer. Comment: <em>Nasdaq proposal is delayed. However, the fact\n        that it is out there means it will drive more diversity for this year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      04 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>A high profile minority addition: \"<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earvin-magic-johnson-appointed-fanatics-140000644.html\" target=\"_blank\">Fanatics</a>,\n        a global leader for licensed sports merchandise, today announced the\n        appointment of Earvin 'Magic' Johnson to its Board of Directors.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      28 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Legislation <a href=\"https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/news-analysis/lawmakers-again-push-for-greater-corporate-diversity-disclosures\" target=\"_blank\">introduced</a>\n        to the Senate by Bob Mendendez may encourage more expedited actions\n        toward the stated goal, but it is unclear whether it will happen within\n        the timespan under consideration.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Legislation is expected to be <a href=\"https://www.pionline.com/legislation/corporate-diversity-bill-introduced-senate\" target=\"_blank\">introduced</a>\n        soon in the House by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-NY. There is apparently broad\n        support for requiring transparency, which will likely resulted in\n        increases even without specific quotas being set.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Feb 21 - Oregon bill sets <a href=\"https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2021/02/02/proposed-bill-sets-corporate-board-diversity.html\" target=\"_blank\">requirements</a>\n      for corporate board diversity. Comment: <em>Potentially this bill only\n        impacts Nike and FLIR. But there are 12 other apparel brands on the\n        S&amp;P 500, and Nike has been using diversity as a differentiator from\n        other brands, which might push them to increase the diversity of their\n        boards.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>It will come down to whether more companies\n        choose to disclose and the likelihood that those disclosing will be\n        doing so for PR benefit (i.e., more likely to have a diverse board).</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>This question has little to do with the actual\n        composition of board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms and more with\n        PR/reporting decisions.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      10 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The \"real\" number for all 500 companies seems as\n        likely to be below 23% as between 23% and 27%. The companies that\n        already disclose are much more likely to have a diverse board. As more\n        companies disclose, we could trend down.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>If NASDAQ is coming out for board diversity, you\n        know you've got a trend on your hands. People are going to try to get in\n        front of this, but at the same time, these changes take time.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      03 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Boardroom diversity has been a standard\n        requirement in some European countries for <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/12/01/940501693/nasdaq-pushes-to-require-corporate-boards-to-add-more-women-and-minorities\" target=\"_blank\">years</a>.\n        It's worth noting <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/nasdaq-proposes-board-diversity-rule-for-listed-companies-11606829244\" target=\"_blank\">that</a>\n        \"Nasdaq's main rival, the New York Stock Exchange...hasn't gone so far\n        as to mandate it through a listing rule.\" Nonetheless, increased\n        diversity expectations would appear to be the direction things are\n        headed.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>The NASDAQ rule, even if approved, shows no\n        reason to think it will happen in 2021. The earliest we would see\n        results is two years after approval.<br>\n      </em><br>\n      01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>NASDAQ <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/business/dealbook/nasdaq-diversity-boards.html\" target=\"_blank\">news</a>\n        is interesting. There are two parts to it: (1) all listed companies must\n        disclose board composition by gender and race; (2) companies that don't\n        have at least one woman and one minority on their board must explain why\n        not. Companies that don't disclose and/or explain would be delisted. The\n        question is, will the SEC allow these seemingly more innocuous\n        disclosure rules? I would say the second part (explaining lack of\n        diversity) is less likely to fly than the first part.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      29 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Certainly a continuation of discourse promoting\n        ethnic and other forms of diversity on corporate boards is evident over\n        the past month (and by no means only in the US or in the Anglosphere). I\n        do suspect that the Biden administration in the US will serve as a push\n        (in some cases at an open door, notably in some larger corporations) to\n        encourage a rapid shift in this direction.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      26 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>There has been a <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-corporate-boards-lack-diversity-but-these-top-companies-are-leading-change-and-the-stock-market-rewards-them-2020-10-23\" target=\"_blank\">rising\n          trend</a> over a longer period than just this year. </em><br>\n      <br>\n      13 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Six S&amp;P 500 companies added black women to\n        their boards in October according to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/six-black-women-add-to-female-gains-on-s-p-500-boards-in-october\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://twitter.com/BoardProspects\" target=\"_blank\">BoardProspects</a>,\n        the organization from the Barron's article, shares announcements and\n        press releases of additions to corporate boards.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      05 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/after-george-floyds-death-the-number-of-black-board-members-surges-51603809011\" target=\"_blank\">Barron's</a>\n        report indicates that in the five months since Floyd's death, Russell\n        3000 companies appointed 130 Black board members, compared with 38 Black\n        directors appointed in the preceding five months, according to\n        BoardProspects.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      04 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>At least <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/05/12/states-are-leading-the-charge-to-corporate-boards-diversify/\" target=\"_blank\">11\n          states</a> besides California have already enacted or are considering\n        enacting board diversity requirements.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      03 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Read an interesting observation that Black and\n        Latino corporate board members were more likely to serve on multiple\n        boards (1 in 3 and 1 in 4, respectively) than those who are white (1 in\n        6). This suggests that once an individual of a racial minority has\n        become acceptable to one board, they are likely to be recruited by other\n        boards.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      02 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>An <a href=\"https://hbr.org/2020/08/why-do-boards-have-so-few-black-directors\" target=\"_blank\">HBR</a>\n        article looks at the social issues surrounding the selection of minority\n        board members. There is a heavy reliance on social networking in board\n        selection. \"Over half of Black directors were known to a fellow board\n        member prior to being appointed, as compared to 35% of white directors.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      31 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b45f6a13-c8e6-484b-a75f-bb578178e87f\" target=\"_blank\">ISS</a>\n        urges companies to disclose ethnicity of directors. Worth remembering\n        that for newly disclosing companies, if only 1 in 4 had diversified\n        board it would push the overall percentage up.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      29 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to this 2019 article, every board has\n        at least one woman. <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/25/there-is-now-a-woman-board-member-at-every-sp-500-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">Women</a>\n        make up 27% of board members. The increase has been slow to come about\n        but may have been pushed by the #MeToo movement.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      27 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Board turnover is a slow process. While there\n        will be inexorable movement toward greater board diversity, there are\n        not many board seats that will come up next year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      26 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/05/missing-pieces-report-the-2018-board-diversity-census-of-women-and-minorities-on-fortune-500-boards/\" target=\"_blank\">Here</a>\n        is another good study (though of the Fortune 100 rather than SP500).\n        Seems like minority representation on these boards has been rising by\n        about 2% every two years.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Other sources seem to be able to get more\n        complete data than the Conference Board. For example, <a href=\"https://www.blackenterprise.com/lists/2019-companies-without-black-directors/\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n        source managed to count 307 S&amp;P companies with Black board members\n        and 187 without in 2019.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      24 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Any efforts by the Conference Board to get data\n        on the smaller companies could really bring down the average.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      21 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>With the current figure from The Conference\n        board indicating a 22% non-white board membership, a lot hinges on the\n        timeline trend. <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-boards-are-accelerating-the-addition-of-diverse-directors-2019-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-300943584.html\" target=\"_blank\">This</a>\n        article says \"minorities comprise 19% of all directors of the top\n        S&amp;P 200 companies, up from 17% last year.\" Which suggests a 2-3%\n        steady increase per year. It seems unlikely a diversification trend will\n        strike that gets the world above 27% in a year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      19 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to <a href=\"http://www.thecorporatecounsel.net/blog/2020/09/vanguards-expectations-for-board-diversity.html\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n        reporting, there are 161 companies in the S&amp;P 500 without any Black\n        directors. Importantly, that was a 6% improvement from a mid-July 2020\n        study. So recent signs that some movement towards greater board racial\n        diversity is starting to take place.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      17 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A rough calculation suggests that if half of\n        open slots were filled by an ethnic minority, the percentage of\n        minorities would increase to 27%.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      16 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Key figures from <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/fewer-black-executives-were-added-to-sp-500-boards-over-the-past-year.html\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n        article: 20% of S&amp;P500 board members are people of color (a 1%\n        increase from last year); 11% of S&amp;P500 board members are black (a\n        2% decrease from last year); minority women are at 10% of S&amp;P500\n        board seats, and seemingly stuck there; and board seats turnover at\n        roughly 8% a year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      15 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-30/california-corporations-diversify-boards-directors-legislature\" target=\"_blank\">California</a>\n        <a href=\"https://news.bloomberglaw.com/corporate-governance/guidance-for-complying-with-californias-new-board-diversity-mandate\" target=\"_blank\">requirement</a>\n        to diversify boards. This could encourage CA companies that haven't\n        reported in the past to do so in 2021.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>If you use the <a href=\"https://www.leap.org/alliance-for-board-diversity-report\" target=\"_blank\">ABD</a>\n        (Alliance for Board Diversity) report, board compositions have been\n        changing at a rate of 0.3-0.4% per year for minority men, presumably it\n        is less for minority women.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      13 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>For Board turnover, something just shy of <a href=\"https://www.spencerstuart.com/-/media/pdf-files/research-and-insight-pdfs/how-much-board-turnover-is-best_9june2014-v2.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=C3A5D37041A3CE1151BD462292C9EA3B78A2BBAF\" target=\"_blank\">one</a>\n        board seat a year in each company.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      09 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Says <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/06/18/u-s-board-diversity-trends-in-2019/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\n        that \"after a decline in board renewal rates in the first years after\n        the Great Recession, boards began to add more new directors starting in\n        2012 and reached record numbers of board replenishment in 2017 and 2018,\n        as a growing number of investors focused on board refreshment and board\n        diversity.\" Graph of the trend <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/5.png\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      <hr><small>Copyright 2021 by Good Judgment Inc. This presentation is\n        solely for informational purposes. The information contained herein are\n        not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. No\n        representation or warranty (express or implied) is provided with respect\n        to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of this presentation. The\n        future is inherently uncertain, and investors should exercise prudence\n        and their own judgment in making investment decisions. Neither Good\n        Judgment nor any of its directors, employees, or agents accept any\n        liability for any loss (direct or indirect), including investment loss,\n        or damage arising out of the use of the information herein. Any opinions\n        expressed in this document may change without prior notice.</small><br>\n    </div>\n  <script type=\"text/javascript\">(function(){window['__CF$cv$params']={r:'679aaad30ec32bc2',m:'1b40537f95e4d1c0b226a27585ca2486aba50c65-1628110325-1800-AV/Q018X4EdX06Op+lcqt7/Z7k+PrAC6PHlF9zmapQU/RgSV5DXatkUZR8mVIpDSgmSF1B56aHp6lQIXONisKmSSzz9P7iSJ5Rbv4xAXaTr8S9bjADsnnJ76Haqu4NjZPQ==',s:[0xea6d696873,0x2d3c9dc500],}})();</script>\n\n<br>"
+      "superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1422\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c4f890\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n      <br>\n      Opened 9 October 2020<br>\n      <br>\n      In its 2020 report, The <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices\" target=\"_blank\">Conference</a>\n      <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Board</a>\n      reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies\n      explicitly disclosed <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive\" target=\"_blank\">board</a>\n      members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The\n      outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their\n      individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board\n      Practices <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/us/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n      <br>\n      <hr><br>\n      <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n      <br>\n      28 July 2021 - In December 2020, Nasdaq had proposed to amend its rules to\n      require that the companies it lists have at least two diverse directors.\n      The Securities and Exchange Commission decided to postpone the decision on\n      the course of action on the proposal, but the discussion signals a trend\n      toward expectations for increased diversity. The Superforecasters\n      currently see the highest probability (74%) that the percentage of\n      corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms held by racial minorities will\n      be \"between 23% and 27%, inclusive\" in 2021.<br>\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n      <br>\n      23 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Those who were proud of their record reported\n        early. If women are <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/study-racial-diversity-stagnated-corporate-boards-78151865\" target=\"_blank\">26%</a>,\n        racial diversity has lagged that.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The Conference Board reports appear to rely on\n        explicitly disclosed data. I find it noteworthy that there is such a\n        large discrepancy between their reported diversity percentages (22%-23%)\n        and those from GeekWire's analysis (<a href=\"https://www.geekwire.com/2021/push-corporate-board-diversity-growing-pacific-nw-tech-companies-stack/\" target=\"_blank\">12.5%</a>).\n        This certainly supports the view already expressed by several\n        Superforecasters that more transparency might well result in an apparent\n        decrease.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      07 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The companies that were originally reporting\n        their board members' races were likely to be the more diverse ones, so\n        more companies reporting will likely drop the percentage.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      01 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Counter-intuitively, if <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/big-u-s-companies-rush-to-disclose-board-diversity-data\" target=\"_blank\">more</a>\n        companies are reporting in order to support greater accountability, it\n        may drive down the overall percentage.</em><br>\n      Response: <em>Good point. It dilutes data.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Public filings in the Board Diversity <a href=\"https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/center-for-board-effectiveness/articles/missing-pieces-board-diversity-census-fortune-500-sixth-edition.html\" target=\"_blank\">Census</a>\n        \"were reviewed up until June 30, 2020, for a year-over-year comparison.\"\n        This study, therefore, would mostly not reflect the movement on systemic\n        racism that was galvanized by the May 2020 police killing of George\n        Floyd.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>According to new board diversity report from\n        Spencer Stuart, major companies tripled the number of new directors who\n        are Black (comprising about <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/boardroom-diversity-rise-racial-reckoning-hits-private-sector/story?id=78312353\" target=\"_blank\">33%</a>\n        of new directors, compared to 11% last year) and doubled the number who\n        are Latinx (making up 7% of new directors, compared to 3% last year).</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Perhaps not as much progress is being made as\n        thought. The Board Diversity Census, conducted by the Alliance of Board\n        Diversity and the consulting firm Deloitte, found an overwhelming <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-business-c85831a5cec6268e0726c3ce28c39436\" target=\"_blank\">82.5%</a>\n        of directors among Fortune 500 company boards are white.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      10 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>There is a difference between the racial\n        diversity of newly appointed members and the racial diversity of all\n        corporate board seats, especially as some boards have expanded their\n        boards. Nonetheless: \"some <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-business-c85831a5cec6268e0726c3ce28c39436\" target=\"_blank\">32%</a>\n        of newly appointed board members in the S&amp;P 500 were Black,\n        according to an analysis by ISS Corporate Solutions, which advises\n        companies on improving shareholder value and reducing risk. That was a\n        leap compared to 11% during the previous year.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>I may give \"More than 27%\" greater probability\n        if additional sources confirm the Heidrick &amp; Struggles report.\n        Reporting issues could skew the numbers, but I think bias will be for\n        companies that awarded more board seats to racial minorities to report.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>A graph with percentages of diversity in Fortune\n        500 companies in <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-08/black-directors-gained-ground-in-the-boardroom-as-women-latinos-whites-slipped\" target=\"_blank\">2020</a>\n        shows 58.8% Caucasian, 27.7% Black, 3.9% Hispanic, 8.5% Asian, 1.2%\n        Other.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      03 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>An interesting statistic: <a href=\"https://www.directorsandboards.com/articles/singlerevolving-door-government-boardroom\" target=\"_blank\">6%</a>\n        of corporate board appointments this year have gone to political\n        leaders--a group that overall trails the racial diversity of the US\n        population.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      27 May 21 - US companies appoint more Black directors after social justice\n      protests - <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/us-companies-appoint-more-black-directors-after-social-justice-protests-report-2021-05-25/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n      Comment: <em>Achieving 25%, in total, would be a real milestone for the\n        firms.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      26 May 21 - Comment: <em>There have been <a href=\"https://fortune.com/2021/05/25/is-nasdaqs-board-diversity-proposal-already-working/\" target=\"_blank\">47</a>\n        minority appointments in S&amp;P 500 companies since Nasdaq's\n        announcement in December.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 May 21 - Comment: <em>From 1 July 2020 to 19 May 2021, a third of new\n        board members at S&amp;P 500 companies are black. Black directors made\n        up <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/79252e5b-1242-496b-9371-100bcc1327a3\" target=\"_blank\">10.6%</a>\n        of S&amp;P 500 board members as of 19 May, compared with 8.3% in 2020\n        and 7.8% in 2019.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      19 May 21 - Comment: <em>Since last June, <a href=\"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boards-are-adding-more-women-and-minorities-ahead-of-nasdaq-rule/\" target=\"_blank\">145</a>\n        S&amp;P 500 companies have added at least one black director, at a\n        higher rate compared to past years. Latino board appointments quadrupled\n        from a year ago.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 May 21 - Comment: <em>The fact that President Biden <a href=\"https://19thnews.org/2021/04/biden-promised-the-most-diverse-administration-ever-heres-how-hes-doing/\" target=\"_blank\">promised</a>\n        to have a Cabinet that reflected the diversity of the country may have\n        some bleed-over effect into the corporate world.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 May 21 - Comment: <em>I suspect racial equity will be <a href=\"https://justcapital.com/reports/corporate-racial-equity-tracker/#the-corporate-racial-equity-tracker\" target=\"_blank\">harder</a>\n        than gender equity, which also took years.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      02 May 21 - Comment: <em>California has a <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/10/10/new-law-requires-diversity-on-boards-of-california-based-companies/\" target=\"_blank\">law</a>\n        demanding diversity. Yet, it could be a LGBQT person and not racially or\n        ethnically diverse.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Racial diversification of boards appears to be\n        moving at a fraction of the pace of gender diversification, but the\n        pressure is on from <a href=\"https://www.crainsnewyork.com/finance/investors-pressure-corporate-america-record-diversity-push\" target=\"_blank\">shareholders</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>California's AB 979 will apply at year end, so I\n        expect much more onboarding of Latinos happening toward that deadline.\n        Even if the law is <a href=\"https://www.natlawreview.com/article/constitutional-challenge-to-ab-979-moving-toward-trial\" target=\"_blank\">struck\n          down</a> eventually, firms should hedge in the meantime by\n        diversifying.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>This may take longer than the timeframe of this\n        question. Despite best of intentions, boards change slowly.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      22 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>US publicly listed companies more than <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/u-s-firms-quadruple-latino-board-hires-in-slow-diversity-push\" target=\"_blank\">quadrupled</a>\n        the appointment of Latino executives to their boards in Q1 2021.<br>\n      </em><br>\n      12 Apr 21 - Shareholders target \"white man's world\" with record <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/06/shareholders-diversity-data-479159%C2%A0\" target=\"_blank\">demands</a>\n      for diversity data. Comment: <em>US companies are coming under intense\n        pressure to diversify their executive ranks.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The question asks about racial/ethnic diversity,\n        and in some of the numbers on diversity numbers they include gender.\n        This <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/corporate-boards-black-hispanic-directors.html\" target=\"_blank\">NYT</a>\n        article from September says for racial and ethnic groups, it is 12.5%,\n        and this <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/09/08/addressing-the-challenge-of-board-racial-diversity/\" target=\"_blank\">article</a>\n        backs that up. <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-companies-continuing-to-improve-board-diversity-2020-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-301193833.html\" target=\"_blank\">22%</a>\n        of new S&amp;P 500 directors are minorities, down from 23% last year.\n        Minority women represent 10% of the incoming class, consistent with last\n        year, and minority men represent 12% of the new directors, a slight\n        decrease from 13% last year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The baseline is about 22%-23%. It's obvious that\n        there is more interest in addressing this issue. The Conference Board is\n        even focused on <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/publications/ROI-of-Inclusion-ES\" target=\"_blank\">research</a>\n        and <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/agendas/979021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">conferences</a>\n        aimed at these kinds of initiatives. But to get above 27%, you'd need 25\n        people added to the corporate boards in one year. It took 10 years for\n        women's representation to go from 22% to 47%. That's a rate of 2.5% a\n        year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      05 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Bloomberg looked at the EEO-1 forms for 37 out\n        of the nation's 100 largest corporations and observed that in the past\n        six months businesses have increasingly sought to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/diversity-equality-in-american-business/\" target=\"_blank\">address</a>\n        the issue of racial diversity.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      31 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Turnover in board of directors is usually slow\n        and we would need to get 6% points vs 2020 to reach \"more than 27%.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      28 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>In addition to Meg Whitman, <a href=\"https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2021/03/25/gm-add-two-new-directors-further-diversifying-its-boardroom/6965869002/\" target=\"_blank\">GM</a>\n        added Asian American Mark Tatum to the board.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      23 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>The baseline for 2019 and 2020 was 23% and 22%,\n        and problems like diversity, while large in public consciousness, might\n        not be playing as big of a role in boardrooms in the middle of a\n        pandemic. According to a <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-companies-continuing-to-improve-board-diversity-2020-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-301193833.html\" target=\"_blank\">survey</a>,\n        \"one-quarter (24%) of S&amp;P 500 companies report having a commitment\n        to recruiting from a diverse slate of candidates when considering new\n        directors.\"<br>\n      </em><br>\n      18 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Apparently the rate of change is <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/corporate-boards-wont-hit-gender-parity-until-2032-new-report-warns.html\" target=\"_blank\">slowing</a>:\n        22% of new directors in the S&amp;P 500 in 2020, down from 23% the prior\n        year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Given that the vote on new rules will not take\n        place until second half of year, I doubt it is going up much this year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      12 Mar 21 - SEC decision <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3671567-sec-delays-ruling-on-nasdaqs-board-diversity-plan\" target=\"_blank\">postponed</a>\n      to this summer. Comment: <em>Nasdaq proposal is delayed. However, the fact\n        that it is out there means it will drive more diversity for this year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      04 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>A high profile minority addition: \"<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earvin-magic-johnson-appointed-fanatics-140000644.html\" target=\"_blank\">Fanatics</a>,\n        a global leader for licensed sports merchandise, today announced the\n        appointment of Earvin 'Magic' Johnson to its Board of Directors.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      28 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Legislation <a href=\"https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/news-analysis/lawmakers-again-push-for-greater-corporate-diversity-disclosures\" target=\"_blank\">introduced</a>\n        to the Senate by Bob Mendendez may encourage more expedited actions\n        toward the stated goal, but it is unclear whether it will happen within\n        the timespan under consideration.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Legislation is expected to be <a href=\"https://www.pionline.com/legislation/corporate-diversity-bill-introduced-senate\" target=\"_blank\">introduced</a>\n        soon in the House by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-NY. There is apparently broad\n        support for requiring transparency, which will likely resulted in\n        increases even without specific quotas being set.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Feb 21 - Oregon bill sets <a href=\"https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2021/02/02/proposed-bill-sets-corporate-board-diversity.html\" target=\"_blank\">requirements</a>\n      for corporate board diversity. Comment: <em>Potentially this bill only\n        impacts Nike and FLIR. But there are 12 other apparel brands on the\n        S&amp;P 500, and Nike has been using diversity as a differentiator from\n        other brands, which might push them to increase the diversity of their\n        boards.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>It will come down to whether more companies\n        choose to disclose and the likelihood that those disclosing will be\n        doing so for PR benefit (i.e., more likely to have a diverse board).</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>This question has little to do with the actual\n        composition of board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms and more with\n        PR/reporting decisions.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      10 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The \"real\" number for all 500 companies seems as\n        likely to be below 23% as between 23% and 27%. The companies that\n        already disclose are much more likely to have a diverse board. As more\n        companies disclose, we could trend down.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      08 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>If NASDAQ is coming out for board diversity, you\n        know you've got a trend on your hands. People are going to try to get in\n        front of this, but at the same time, these changes take time.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      03 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Boardroom diversity has been a standard\n        requirement in some European countries for <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/12/01/940501693/nasdaq-pushes-to-require-corporate-boards-to-add-more-women-and-minorities\" target=\"_blank\">years</a>.\n        It's worth noting <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/nasdaq-proposes-board-diversity-rule-for-listed-companies-11606829244\" target=\"_blank\">that</a>\n        \"Nasdaq's main rival, the New York Stock Exchange...hasn't gone so far\n        as to mandate it through a listing rule.\" Nonetheless, increased\n        diversity expectations would appear to be the direction things are\n        headed.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>The NASDAQ rule, even if approved, shows no\n        reason to think it will happen in 2021. The earliest we would see\n        results is two years after approval.<br>\n      </em><br>\n      01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>NASDAQ <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/business/dealbook/nasdaq-diversity-boards.html\" target=\"_blank\">news</a>\n        is interesting. There are two parts to it: (1) all listed companies must\n        disclose board composition by gender and race; (2) companies that don't\n        have at least one woman and one minority on their board must explain why\n        not. Companies that don't disclose and/or explain would be delisted. The\n        question is, will the SEC allow these seemingly more innocuous\n        disclosure rules? I would say the second part (explaining lack of\n        diversity) is less likely to fly than the first part.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      29 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Certainly a continuation of discourse promoting\n        ethnic and other forms of diversity on corporate boards is evident over\n        the past month (and by no means only in the US or in the Anglosphere). I\n        do suspect that the Biden administration in the US will serve as a push\n        (in some cases at an open door, notably in some larger corporations) to\n        encourage a rapid shift in this direction.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      26 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>There has been a <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-corporate-boards-lack-diversity-but-these-top-companies-are-leading-change-and-the-stock-market-rewards-them-2020-10-23\" target=\"_blank\">rising\n          trend</a> over a longer period than just this year. </em><br>\n      <br>\n      13 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Six S&amp;P 500 companies added black women to\n        their boards in October according to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/six-black-women-add-to-female-gains-on-s-p-500-boards-in-october\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      06 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://twitter.com/BoardProspects\" target=\"_blank\">BoardProspects</a>,\n        the organization from the Barron's article, shares announcements and\n        press releases of additions to corporate boards.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      05 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/after-george-floyds-death-the-number-of-black-board-members-surges-51603809011\" target=\"_blank\">Barron's</a>\n        report indicates that in the five months since Floyd's death, Russell\n        3000 companies appointed 130 Black board members, compared with 38 Black\n        directors appointed in the preceding five months, according to\n        BoardProspects.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      04 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>At least <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/05/12/states-are-leading-the-charge-to-corporate-boards-diversify/\" target=\"_blank\">11\n          states</a> besides California have already enacted or are considering\n        enacting board diversity requirements.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      03 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Read an interesting observation that Black and\n        Latino corporate board members were more likely to serve on multiple\n        boards (1 in 3 and 1 in 4, respectively) than those who are white (1 in\n        6). This suggests that once an individual of a racial minority has\n        become acceptable to one board, they are likely to be recruited by other\n        boards.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      02 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>An <a href=\"https://hbr.org/2020/08/why-do-boards-have-so-few-black-directors\" target=\"_blank\">HBR</a>\n        article looks at the social issues surrounding the selection of minority\n        board members. There is a heavy reliance on social networking in board\n        selection. \"Over half of Black directors were known to a fellow board\n        member prior to being appointed, as compared to 35% of white directors.\"</em><br>\n      <br>\n      31 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b45f6a13-c8e6-484b-a75f-bb578178e87f\" target=\"_blank\">ISS</a>\n        urges companies to disclose ethnicity of directors. Worth remembering\n        that for newly disclosing companies, if only 1 in 4 had diversified\n        board it would push the overall percentage up.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      29 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to this 2019 article, every board has\n        at least one woman. <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/25/there-is-now-a-woman-board-member-at-every-sp-500-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">Women</a>\n        make up 27% of board members. The increase has been slow to come about\n        but may have been pushed by the #MeToo movement.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      27 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Board turnover is a slow process. While there\n        will be inexorable movement toward greater board diversity, there are\n        not many board seats that will come up next year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      26 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/05/missing-pieces-report-the-2018-board-diversity-census-of-women-and-minorities-on-fortune-500-boards/\" target=\"_blank\">Here</a>\n        is another good study (though of the Fortune 100 rather than SP500).\n        Seems like minority representation on these boards has been rising by\n        about 2% every two years.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      25 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Other sources seem to be able to get more\n        complete data than the Conference Board. For example, <a href=\"https://www.blackenterprise.com/lists/2019-companies-without-black-directors/\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n        source managed to count 307 S&amp;P companies with Black board members\n        and 187 without in 2019.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      24 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Any efforts by the Conference Board to get data\n        on the smaller companies could really bring down the average.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      21 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>With the current figure from The Conference\n        board indicating a 22% non-white board membership, a lot hinges on the\n        timeline trend. <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-boards-are-accelerating-the-addition-of-diverse-directors-2019-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-300943584.html\" target=\"_blank\">This</a>\n        article says \"minorities comprise 19% of all directors of the top\n        S&amp;P 200 companies, up from 17% last year.\" Which suggests a 2-3%\n        steady increase per year. It seems unlikely a diversification trend will\n        strike that gets the world above 27% in a year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      19 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to <a href=\"http://www.thecorporatecounsel.net/blog/2020/09/vanguards-expectations-for-board-diversity.html\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n        reporting, there are 161 companies in the S&amp;P 500 without any Black\n        directors. Importantly, that was a 6% improvement from a mid-July 2020\n        study. So recent signs that some movement towards greater board racial\n        diversity is starting to take place.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      17 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A rough calculation suggests that if half of\n        open slots were filled by an ethnic minority, the percentage of\n        minorities would increase to 27%.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      16 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Key figures from <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/fewer-black-executives-were-added-to-sp-500-boards-over-the-past-year.html\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n        article: 20% of S&amp;P500 board members are people of color (a 1%\n        increase from last year); 11% of S&amp;P500 board members are black (a\n        2% decrease from last year); minority women are at 10% of S&amp;P500\n        board seats, and seemingly stuck there; and board seats turnover at\n        roughly 8% a year.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      15 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-30/california-corporations-diversify-boards-directors-legislature\" target=\"_blank\">California</a>\n        <a href=\"https://news.bloomberglaw.com/corporate-governance/guidance-for-complying-with-californias-new-board-diversity-mandate\" target=\"_blank\">requirement</a>\n        to diversify boards. This could encourage CA companies that haven't\n        reported in the past to do so in 2021.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      14 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>If you use the <a href=\"https://www.leap.org/alliance-for-board-diversity-report\" target=\"_blank\">ABD</a>\n        (Alliance for Board Diversity) report, board compositions have been\n        changing at a rate of 0.3-0.4% per year for minority men, presumably it\n        is less for minority women.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      13 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>For Board turnover, something just shy of <a href=\"https://www.spencerstuart.com/-/media/pdf-files/research-and-insight-pdfs/how-much-board-turnover-is-best_9june2014-v2.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=C3A5D37041A3CE1151BD462292C9EA3B78A2BBAF\" target=\"_blank\">one</a>\n        board seat a year in each company.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      09 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Says <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/06/18/u-s-board-diversity-trends-in-2019/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\n        that \"after a decline in board renewal rates in the first years after\n        the Great Recession, boards began to add more new directors starting in\n        2012 and reached record numbers of board replenishment in 2017 and 2018,\n        as a growing number of investors focused on board refreshment and board\n        diversity.\" Graph of the trend <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/5.png\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.</em><br>\n      <br>\n      <br>\n      <hr><small>Copyright 2021 by Good Judgment Inc. This presentation is\n        solely for informational purposes. The information contained herein are\n        not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. No\n        representation or warranty (express or implied) is provided with respect\n        to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of this presentation. The\n        future is inherently uncertain, and investors should exercise prudence\n        and their own judgment in making investment decisions. Neither Good\n        Judgment nor any of its directors, employees, or agents accept any\n        liability for any loss (direct or indirect), including investment loss,\n        or damage arising out of the use of the information herein. Any opinions\n        expressed in this document may change without prior notice.</small><br>\n    </div>\n  <script type=\"text/javascript\">(function(){window['__CF$cv$params']={r:'67b362f34a314e74',m:'f647da67ae6d84a40fa44a13e0ff46f9f4fedfa9-1628369524-1800-AThYKo//Bdcu+XP1yYOiJD06bPSX0XUVdKg1sllL1kSiYadO/zZ0B2MOmyhR94ARJ5OFGK61W+yTKOnjidFLoAjrC02jnxuD6hRTIGatp4HlWTp4oIqlvyBmxjPVflvkRw==',s:[0x54c6a48d38,0x89126bad82],u:'/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/h/g'}})();</script>\n\n<br>"
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   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?",
+    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2094-when-will-the-14-day-average-of-covid-19-hospitalized-patients-in-california-next-reach-or-exceed-12-000",
+    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+    "description": "COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/02/no-ones-invincible-fresh-mask-mandates-and-rising-delta-cases-hit-california), [KTLA](https://ktla.com/news/california/our-projections-are-sobering-california-considers-new-measures-amid-covid-surge/)). The data can be found under the plot titled \"COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California\" with the \"Hospitalized\" option selected ([COVID19.ca.gov](https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard)). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Before 15 September 2021",
+        "probability": 0.14,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
+        "probability": 0.55,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021",
+        "probability": 0.28,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022",
+        "probability": 0.03,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Not before 1 February 2022",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:05.748Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "11",
+      "numforecasters": "11",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 15 September 2021, Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021, Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Not before 1 February 2022"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?",
+    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2095-when-will-a-sars-cov-2-variant-other-than-delta-next-represent-more-than-70-0-of-total-covid-19-cases-in-the-us",
+    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+    "description": "The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow ([New Atlas](https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/what-comes-after-delta-variant-coronavirus-who-names/), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/2021/08/13/doomsday-covid-variant-worse-delta-lambda-may-coming-scientists-say-1615874.html)). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021",
+        "probability": 0.08,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022",
+        "probability": 0.27,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022",
+        "probability": 0.27,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Not before 12 March 2022",
+        "probability": 0.38,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:08.993Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "16",
+      "numforecasters": "15",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier, A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021, A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022, A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022, Not before 12 March 2022"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many units will Ford produce in North America in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2092-how-many-units-will-ford-produce-in-north-america-in-2021",
+    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+    "description": "While US motor vehicle demand has recovered from the worst of the pandemic days, ongoing shortages in microchips are hampering auto production ([Detroit Free Press](https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2021/06/15/car-chip-shortage-2021/7688773002/), [Ford Authority](https://fordauthority.com/2021/08/ford-execs-say-chip-shortage-likely-to-persist-through-june-2022/)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Ford, expected in 2022 ([Ford](https://shareholder.ford.com/investors/financials-and-filings/default.aspx), see \"U.S. Sales Reports\"). For 2020, Ford reported production at 2,034,807 among plants in Canada, Mexico, and the US ([Ford - Q4 2020 Sales Release](https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/Ford-Q4-2020-Sales-Release-Final.pdf), see page 4, \"Total Production\" for \"Full Year\").\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Fewer than 1.75 million",
+        "probability": 0.11,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 1.75 million and 2.00 million, inclusive",
+        "probability": 0.28,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million",
+        "probability": 0.39,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 2.25 million and 2.50 million, inclusive",
+        "probability": 0.21,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "More than 2.50 million",
+        "probability": 0.01,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:12.326Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "12",
+      "numforecasters": "9",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1.75 million, Between 1.75 million and 2.00 million, inclusive, More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million, Between 2.25 million and 2.50 million, inclusive, More than 2.50 million"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?",
+    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2091-before-1-january-2022-will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-begin-delivering-natural-gas-to-germany",
+    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+    "description": "The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57923655), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/politics/menendez-nord-stream-2-joint-statement/index.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-28/republicans-threaten-to-oppose-treasury-picks-over-nord-stream-2), [Nord-stream2.com](https://www.nord-stream2.com/company/rationale/)). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 1,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:14.417Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "17",
+      "numforecasters": "15",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2093-how-many-fatal-covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-will-be-reported-to-the-cdc-as-of-10-january-2022",
+    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+    "description": "Fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases are increasing ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/), [News12](https://bronx.news12.com/what-is-a-covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-case), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/31/health/fully-vaccinated-people-breakthrough-hospitalization-death/index.html), [Colorado Public Radio](https://www.cpr.org/2021/08/02/breakthrough-covid-cases-vaccinated-colorado/), [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02096-3)). The outcome will be determined by data available on 10 January 2022 from the CDC's COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigation and Reporting; see row marked \"Deaths\" in the table titled \"Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC\" ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html)). As of 26 July 2021, there were 1,263 fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to the CDC. Fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19 would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Fewer than 6,000",
+        "probability": 0.59,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive",
+        "probability": 0.33,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000",
+        "probability": 0.07,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive",
+        "probability": 0.01,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "30,000 or more",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:17.183Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "8",
+      "numforecasters": "6",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6,000, Between 6,000 and 12,000, inclusive, More than 12,000 but fewer than 18,000, Between 18,000 and 24,000, inclusive, More than 24,000 but fewer than 30,000, 30,000 or more"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City?",
+    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2096-before-1-november-2021-will-a-new-government-mask-mandate-for-individuals-fully-vaccinated-for-covid-19-that-includes-indoor-restaurants-and-or-retail-establishments-be-imposed-on-new-york-city",
+    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+    "description": "With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate ([NYC.gov](https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/539-21/transcript-mayor-de-blasio-holds-media-availability), [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2021/08/03/nyc-to-mandate-proof-of-vaccination-for-many-indoor-settings/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/us/nyc-mask-mandate/index.html), [NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page)). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 1,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:19.379Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "17",
+      "numforecasters": "15",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022",
@@ -41522,10 +41737,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:06.465Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:21.355Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "112",
-      "numforecasters": "96",
+      "numforecasts": "136",
+      "numforecasters": "111",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -41538,19 +41753,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.02,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.97,
+        "probability": 0.98,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:09.299Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:23.594Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "37",
-      "numforecasters": "32",
+      "numforecasts": "43",
+      "numforecasters": "37",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -41563,19 +41778,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0.02,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
+        "probability": 0.98,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:11.949Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:26.211Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "48",
-      "numforecasters": "42",
+      "numforecasts": "53",
+      "numforecasters": "46",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -41588,19 +41803,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.96,
+        "probability": 1,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:14.371Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:27.987Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "40",
-      "numforecasters": "31",
+      "numforecasts": "49",
+      "numforecasters": "39",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -41627,10 +41842,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:16.559Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:30.866Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "39",
-      "numforecasters": "36",
+      "numforecasts": "43",
+      "numforecasters": "39",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
@@ -41653,17 +41868,17 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "More than $45.00 but less than $60.00",
-        "probability": 0.16,
+        "probability": 0.22,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.51,
+        "probability": 0.5,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than $75.00 but less than $90.00",
-        "probability": 0.32,
+        "probability": 0.27,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -41672,10 +41887,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:19.708Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:34.252Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "77",
-      "numforecasters": "53",
+      "numforecasts": "87",
+      "numforecasters": "56",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30.00, Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive, More than $45.00 but less than $60.00, Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive, More than $75.00 but less than $90.00, More than $90.00"
@@ -41684,33 +41899,33 @@
     "title": "When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?",
     "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2083-when-will-the-fda-and-or-cdc-recommend-that-at-least-some-americans-fully-vaccinated-for-covid-19-receive-a-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot",
     "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
-    "description": "On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/pfizer-waning-immunity-bn/index.html), [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-biontech-booster-shot-delta-variant-emergency-use-authorization/)). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that \"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time\" ([hhs.gov](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/07/08/joint-cdc-and-fda-statement-vaccine-boosters.html)). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 30 July 2021: If the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans considered to have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 as of the launch of this question to receive an additional dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, it would count for the resolution of this question.\n",
+    "description": "On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/pfizer-waning-immunity-bn/index.html), [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-biontech-booster-shot-delta-variant-emergency-use-authorization/)). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that \"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time\" ([hhs.gov](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/07/08/joint-cdc-and-fda-statement-vaccine-boosters.html)). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 30 July 2021: If the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans considered to have been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 as of the launch of this question to receive an additional dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, it would count for the resolution of this question.\nNOTE 6 August 2021: This question will resolve based on the date a recommendation is made.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Before 1 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.2,
+        "probability": 0.24,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.52,
+        "probability": 0.58,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
-        "probability": 0.23,
+        "probability": 0.17,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
-        "probability": 0.05,
+        "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:22.349Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:38.103Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "220",
-      "numforecasters": "120",
+      "numforecasts": "250",
+      "numforecasters": "125",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
@@ -41723,22 +41938,22 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than $25 billion",
-        "probability": 0.06,
+        "probability": 0.13,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.18,
+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion",
-        "probability": 0.61,
+        "probability": 0.51,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.11,
+        "probability": 0.12,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -41752,9 +41967,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:25.592Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:41.026Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "68",
+      "numforecasts": "72",
       "numforecasters": "31",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -41777,10 +41992,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:27.740Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:42.965Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "86",
-      "numforecasters": "77",
+      "numforecasts": "88",
+      "numforecasters": "79",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -41793,24 +42008,24 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Before 9 August 2021",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.85,
+        "probability": 0.88,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.13,
+        "probability": 0.12,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:30.630Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:45.530Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "33",
+      "numforecasts": "70",
+      "numforecasters": "34",
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     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 9 August 2021, Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
@@ -41828,7 +42043,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -41843,14 +42058,14 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 1 April 2022",
-        "probability": 0.99,
+        "probability": 1,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:33.770Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:48.218Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "53",
+      "numforecasts": "70",
+      "numforecasters": "54",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021, Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022"
@@ -41872,10 +42087,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:36.495Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:50.735Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "68",
+      "numforecasts": "78",
+      "numforecasters": "69",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -41893,12 +42108,12 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Sebastián Sichel",
-        "probability": 0.4,
+        "probability": 0.37,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Another candidate",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.13,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -41907,10 +42122,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:39.309Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:53.448Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "37",
+      "numforecasts": "77",
+      "numforecasters": "40",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Gabriel Boric, Sebastián Sichel, Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022"
@@ -41923,17 +42138,17 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Before 11 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.71,
+        "probability": 0.64,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.19,
+        "probability": 0.24,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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@@ -41942,10 +42157,10 @@
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       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:42.353Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:01:55.980Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "84",
+      "numforecasts": "225",
+      "numforecasters": "85",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 11 September 2021, Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021, Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021, Not before 18 December 2021"
@@ -41987,9 +42202,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:45.687Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:04.682Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "60",
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@@ -42003,18 +42218,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.35,
+        "probability": 0.42,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
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-        "probability": 0.65,
+        "probability": 0.58,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:48.139Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:07.155Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "99",
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     },
@@ -42028,7 +42243,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Lewis Hamilton",
-        "probability": 0.41,
+        "probability": 0.45,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42038,7 +42253,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Max Verstappen",
-        "probability": 0.59,
+        "probability": 0.55,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42047,10 +42262,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:50.421Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:09.817Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "50",
+      "numforecasts": "88",
+      "numforecasters": "51",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez, Max Verstappen, Another driver"
@@ -42063,19 +42278,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.38,
+        "probability": 0.44,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
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-        "probability": 0.62,
+        "probability": 0.56,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:52.614Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:11.928Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "67",
+      "numforecasts": "131",
+      "numforecasters": "69",
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@@ -42088,19 +42303,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.13,
+        "probability": 0.09,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
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+        "probability": 0.91,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:54.843Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:13.851Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "67",
+      "numforecasts": "111",
+      "numforecasters": "69",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42132,10 +42347,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:02:57.419Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:16.630Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "25",
+      "numforecasts": "54",
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@@ -42148,22 +42363,22 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Fewer than 22 million",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.6,
+        "probability": 0.66,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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         "name": "More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million",
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+        "probability": 0.33,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.01,
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@@ -42172,10 +42387,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:06.709Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:18.919Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "36",
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@@ -42193,29 +42408,29 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.46,
+        "probability": 0.52,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021",
-        "probability": 0.42,
+        "probability": 0.37,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 12 November 2021",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:09.194Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:21.687Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "48",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021, Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021, Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021, Not before 12 November 2021"
@@ -42228,19 +42443,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
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+        "probability": 0.99,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:11.311Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:23.734Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "50",
+      "numforecasts": "85",
+      "numforecasters": "51",
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42253,12 +42468,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than $1.0 trillion",
-        "probability": 0.06,
+        "probability": 0.07,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.35,
+        "probability": 0.34,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
@@ -42277,9 +42492,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:13.822Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:26.960Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "140",
       "numforecasters": "62",
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@@ -42293,12 +42508,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Lower than 250.00000",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.22,
+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42313,13 +42528,13 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher than 280.00000",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:16.380Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:30.187Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "127",
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       "stars": 3
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@@ -42333,19 +42548,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.17,
+        "probability": 0.14,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
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+        "probability": 0.86,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:18.338Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:32.620Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "33",
+      "numforecasts": "80",
+      "numforecasters": "34",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42358,33 +42573,33 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Fewer than 60,000",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.09,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.18,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000",
-        "probability": 0.31,
+        "probability": 0.25,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.45,
+        "probability": 0.4,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 240,000",
-        "probability": 0.12,
+        "probability": 0.08,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:21.331Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:34.973Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "87",
       "numforecasters": "34",
       "stars": 3
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@@ -42398,19 +42613,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.86,
+        "probability": 0.81,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.14,
+        "probability": 0.19,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:23.685Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:36.903Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "43",
+      "numforecasts": "75",
+      "numforecasters": "44",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42423,19 +42638,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.88,
+        "probability": 0.91,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.12,
+        "probability": 0.09,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:25.891Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:39.570Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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-      "numforecasters": "48",
+      "numforecasts": "117",
+      "numforecasters": "49",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42448,19 +42663,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.81,
+        "probability": 0.8,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.19,
+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:28.451Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:41.627Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "144",
+      "numforecasts": "164",
+      "numforecasters": "147",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42497,10 +42712,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:31.564Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:45.392Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "91",
+      "numforecasts": "123",
+      "numforecasters": "92",
       "stars": 3
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@@ -42518,12 +42733,12 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 2030 and 2039",
-        "probability": 0.54,
+        "probability": 0.55,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 2040 and 2049",
-        "probability": 0.36,
+        "probability": 0.35,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42532,10 +42747,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:34.017Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:48.164Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "146",
+      "numforecasts": "182",
+      "numforecasters": "147",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 2030, Between 2030 and 2039, Between 2040 and 2049, Not before 2050"
@@ -42548,22 +42763,22 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Fewer than 10",
-        "probability": 0.07,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 10 and 100, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.7,
+        "probability": 0.68,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 100 but fewer than 250",
-        "probability": 0.2,
+        "probability": 0.21,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 250 and 500, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
@@ -42572,10 +42787,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:37.375Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:51.134Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "104",
+      "numforecasts": "148",
+      "numforecasters": "105",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 10, Between 10 and 100, inclusive, More than 100 but fewer than 250, Between 250 and 500, inclusive, More than 500"
@@ -42597,10 +42812,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:39.778Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:02:53.441Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "148",
+      "numforecasts": "180",
+      "numforecasters": "150",
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@@ -42622,10 +42837,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:41.651Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:02.340Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "83",
+      "numforecasts": "147",
+      "numforecasters": "84",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42638,18 +42853,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2,
+        "probability": 0.22,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
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-        "probability": 0.8,
+        "probability": 0.78,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:44.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:05.116Z",
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-      "numforecasts": "103",
+      "numforecasts": "107",
       "numforecasters": "50",
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@@ -42672,10 +42887,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:46.694Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:07.147Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "94",
+      "numforecasts": "146",
+      "numforecasters": "96",
       "stars": 3
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     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42688,34 +42903,34 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than 1.0%",
-        "probability": 0.08,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.32,
+        "probability": 0.22,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%",
-        "probability": 0.24,
+        "probability": 0.33,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.16,
+        "probability": 0.17,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 5.5%",
-        "probability": 0.2,
+        "probability": 0.28,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:49.120Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:10.076Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "71",
-      "numforecasters": "31",
+      "numforecasts": "73",
+      "numforecasters": "32",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%"
@@ -42738,7 +42953,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 17 August 2021 and 27 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.06,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42748,14 +42963,14 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 9 November 2021",
-        "probability": 0.63,
+        "probability": 0.64,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:52.288Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:12.610Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "197",
-      "numforecasters": "76",
+      "numforecasts": "207",
+      "numforecasters": "78",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 6 July 2021, Between 6 July 2021 and 16 August 2021, Between 17 August 2021 and 27 September 2021, Between 28 September 2021 and 8 November 2021, Not before 9 November 2021"
@@ -42778,58 +42993,23 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt",
-        "probability": 0.22,
+        "probability": 0.23,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "360,000 kt or more",
-        "probability": 0.78,
+        "probability": 0.77,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:03:54.415Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:15.439Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "77",
-      "numforecasters": "34",
+      "numforecasts": "80",
+      "numforecasters": "35",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 320,000 kt, Between 320,000 kt and 340,000 kt, inclusive, More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt, 360,000 kt or more"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?",
-    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2047-when-will-covid-19-cases-caused-by-the-delta-variant-b-1-617-2-exceed-350-000-in-the-uk",
-    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
-    "description": "Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk), [Public Health England](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf), [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1513)). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 ([Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-11-june-2021)). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "On or before 14 July 2021",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Between 15 July and 28 July 2021",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Between 29 July and 11 August 2021",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Not before 12 August 2021",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:02.910Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "528",
-      "numforecasters": "138",
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "On or before 14 July 2021, Between 15 July and 28 July 2021, Between 29 July and 11 August 2021, Not before 12 August 2021"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045-will-the-closing-price-of-brent-crude-oil-be-higher-than-70-00-per-barrel-on-30-december-2021",
@@ -42838,19 +43018,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.55,
+        "probability": 0.54,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.45,
+        "probability": 0.46,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:05.232Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:17.828Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "216",
-      "numforecasters": "93",
+      "numforecasts": "223",
+      "numforecasters": "94",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -42892,9 +43072,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:08.037Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:21.382Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "349",
+      "numforecasts": "351",
       "numforecasters": "246",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -42913,19 +43093,19 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Same",
-        "probability": 0.96,
+        "probability": 0.98,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.02,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:10.772Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:23.974Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "67",
-      "numforecasters": "44",
+      "numforecasts": "69",
+      "numforecasters": "45",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
@@ -42943,7 +43123,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.4,
+        "probability": 0.39,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42953,7 +43133,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.14,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -42962,10 +43142,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:13.793Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:26.367Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "149",
-      "numforecasters": "47",
+      "numforecasts": "156",
+      "numforecasters": "48",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than $220.00/MT, Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive, Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT, Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive, Higher than $340.00/MT"
@@ -42978,12 +43158,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than 3,800",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.09,
+        "probability": 0.11,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43003,14 +43183,14 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "5,000 or more",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.02,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:16.645Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:29.200Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "120",
-      "numforecasters": "42",
+      "numforecasts": "124",
+      "numforecasters": "43",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3,800, Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive, More than 4,100 but less than 4,400, Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive, More than 4,700 but less than 5,000, 5,000 or more"
@@ -43032,10 +43212,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:18.888Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:31.111Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "371",
-      "numforecasters": "208",
+      "numforecasts": "375",
+      "numforecasters": "209",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -43053,28 +43233,28 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.11,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.31,
+        "probability": 0.32,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%",
-        "probability": 0.31,
+        "probability": 0.32,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher by 7.5% or more",
-        "probability": 0.26,
+        "probability": 0.23,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:21.416Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:34.090Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "92",
+      "numforecasts": "94",
       "numforecasters": "43",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43103,68 +43283,23 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.28,
+        "probability": 0.25,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 12 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.57,
+        "probability": 0.6,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:23.953Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:37.119Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "74",
+      "numforecasts": "77",
       "numforecasters": "24",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 11 July 2021, Between 11 July 2021 and 11 August 2021, Between 12 August 2021 and 11 September 2021, Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021, Not before 12 October 2021"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?",
-    "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2037-which-country-will-win-the-2020-olympic-gold-medal-in-women-s-football-soccer",
-    "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
-    "description": "The women’s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 ([Olympics](https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/football-schedule)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Great Britain",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Japan",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "The Netherlands",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "United States",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Another country",
-        "probability": 1,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No gold medal will be awarded for this event",
-        "probability": 0,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:26.696Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "345",
-      "numforecasters": "122",
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Great Britain, Japan, The Netherlands, United States, Another country, No gold medal will be awarded for this event"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033-will-any-four-week-average-of-us-field-production-of-crude-oil-exceed-12-million-b-d-in-2021",
@@ -43173,18 +43308,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.16,
+        "probability": 0.13,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.84,
+        "probability": 0.87,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:29.014Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:39.554Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "132",
+      "numforecasts": "141",
       "numforecasters": "47",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43207,10 +43342,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:31.250Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:41.457Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "293",
-      "numforecasters": "158",
+      "numforecasts": "305",
+      "numforecasters": "164",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -43228,18 +43363,18 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)",
-        "probability": 0.28,
+        "probability": 0.29,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall",
-        "probability": 0.51,
+        "probability": 0.5,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:33.721Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:44.411Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "187",
+      "numforecasts": "189",
       "numforecasters": "61",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43253,7 +43388,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "2 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.06,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43268,7 +43403,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "5",
-        "probability": 0.27,
+        "probability": 0.28,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43277,9 +43412,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:36.143Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:48.399Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "243",
+      "numforecasts": "252",
       "numforecasters": "93",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43317,9 +43452,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:39.581Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:52.369Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "440",
+      "numforecasts": "444",
       "numforecasters": "116",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43342,9 +43477,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:41.636Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:03:54.812Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "88",
+      "numforecasts": "89",
       "numforecasters": "36",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43358,18 +43493,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.03,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.96,
+        "probability": 0.97,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:43.822Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:03.185Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "191",
+      "numforecasts": "195",
       "numforecasters": "79",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43383,7 +43518,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Bitcoin",
-        "probability": 0.43,
+        "probability": 0.44,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43398,13 +43533,13 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "XRP (Ripple)",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.09,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:46.644Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:05.924Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "225",
+      "numforecasts": "232",
       "numforecasters": "79",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43418,7 +43553,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than 1.4 million",
-        "probability": 0.09,
+        "probability": 0.07,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43428,7 +43563,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million",
-        "probability": 0.33,
+        "probability": 0.35,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43442,9 +43577,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:48.988Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:08.729Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "193",
+      "numforecasts": "198",
       "numforecasters": "72",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43467,10 +43602,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:51.362Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:11.074Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "173",
-      "numforecasters": "97",
+      "numforecasts": "176",
+      "numforecasters": "98",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -43492,10 +43627,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:04:59.911Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:13.137Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "132",
-      "numforecasters": "62",
+      "numforecasts": "134",
+      "numforecasters": "64",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -43517,10 +43652,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:02.518Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:15.604Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "339",
-      "numforecasters": "152",
+      "numforecasts": "346",
+      "numforecasters": "155",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -43538,12 +43673,12 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.16,
+        "probability": 0.29,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%",
-        "probability": 0.84,
+        "probability": 0.71,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -43552,10 +43687,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:05.561Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:17.976Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "717",
-      "numforecasters": "202",
+      "numforecasts": "794",
+      "numforecasters": "208",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 45.0%, Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%, 55.0% or higher"
@@ -43577,10 +43712,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:08.251Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:20.084Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "162",
-      "numforecasters": "78",
+      "numforecasts": "164",
+      "numforecasters": "79",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -43612,9 +43747,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:11.020Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:22.265Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "246",
+      "numforecasts": "249",
       "numforecasters": "107",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -43643,18 +43778,18 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.05,
+        "probability": 0.04,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
-        "probability": 0.95,
+        "probability": 0.96,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:13.839Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:25.401Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "595",
+      "numforecasts": "599",
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@@ -43668,19 +43803,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
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+        "probability": 0.24,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
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+        "probability": 0.76,
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:15.714Z",
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@@ -43698,7 +43833,7 @@
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+        "probability": 0.3,
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@@ -43713,13 +43848,13 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "6 or more",
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+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:18.819Z",
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@@ -43733,18 +43868,18 @@
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+        "probability": 0.7,
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@@ -43772,10 +43907,10 @@
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@@ -43797,9 +43932,9 @@
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:04:37.376Z",
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@@ -43822,9 +43957,9 @@
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@@ -43843,12 +43978,12 @@
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+        "probability": 0.2,
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@@ -43857,10 +43992,10 @@
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@@ -43882,9 +44017,9 @@
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@@ -43907,9 +44042,9 @@
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@@ -43947,10 +44082,10 @@
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@@ -43963,29 +44098,29 @@
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         "name": "Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor",
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         "name": "Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial",
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         "name": "None of these will occur before 1 April 2022",
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+        "probability": 0.49,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:05:41.205Z",
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       }
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@@ -44067,10 +44202,10 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:02.078Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:14.178Z",
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@@ -44163,23 +44298,23 @@
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         "name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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@@ -44198,7 +44333,7 @@
       },
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         "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive",
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@@ -44208,7 +44343,7 @@
       },
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         "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
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+        "probability": 0.46,
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@@ -44217,9 +44352,9 @@
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:28.708Z",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:31.022Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "139",
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@@ -44397,9 +44532,9 @@
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     ],
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:36.288Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "203",
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@@ -44422,10 +44557,10 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:25.514Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:39.046Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "500",
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@@ -44438,17 +44573,17 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than 5.4%",
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+        "probability": 0.13,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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         "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
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+        "probability": 0.86,
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@@ -44462,9 +44597,9 @@
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+      "numforecasts": "674",
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@@ -44478,17 +44613,17 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than 1.000",
-        "probability": 0.09,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
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+        "probability": 0.84,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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         "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
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@@ -44502,9 +44637,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:30.962Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:45.190Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "732",
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@@ -44518,12 +44653,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
-        "probability": 0.15,
+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
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+        "probability": 0.8,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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@@ -44532,9 +44667,9 @@
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       }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:33.453Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:48.151Z",
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+      "numforecasts": "356",
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@@ -44548,19 +44683,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
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+        "probability": 0.42,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:35.773Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "73",
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@@ -44582,10 +44717,10 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:38.200Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:05:58.963Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "104",
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@@ -44598,19 +44733,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
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+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-      "numforecasters": "135",
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@@ -44632,10 +44767,10 @@
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       }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:42.662Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:03.513Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "77",
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@@ -44657,10 +44792,10 @@
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:06.262Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "177",
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@@ -44682,10 +44817,10 @@
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     ],
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:08.412Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "192",
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+      "numforecasters": "193",
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@@ -44698,7 +44833,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes, only SpaceX",
-        "probability": 0.66,
+        "probability": 0.69,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
@@ -44708,19 +44843,19 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Yes, both",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:06:56.337Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "151",
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@@ -44742,10 +44877,10 @@
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@@ -44767,10 +44902,10 @@
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-      "numforecasters": "117",
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@@ -44792,10 +44927,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:19.039Z",
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-      "numforecasters": "129",
+      "numforecasts": "311",
+      "numforecasters": "130",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -44817,10 +44952,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:04.961Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:21.264Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "475",
-      "numforecasters": "152",
+      "numforecasts": "479",
+      "numforecasters": "153",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -44833,12 +44968,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "0",
-        "probability": 0.9,
+        "probability": 0.92,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "1",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.08,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -44852,10 +44987,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:07.979Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:24.910Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "563",
-      "numforecasters": "166",
+      "numforecasts": "574",
+      "numforecasters": "167",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
@@ -44892,10 +45027,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:10.564Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:28.166Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "614",
-      "numforecasters": "123",
+      "numforecasts": "619",
+      "numforecasters": "126",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion"
@@ -44908,19 +45043,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.11,
+        "probability": 0.1,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.89,
+        "probability": 0.9,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:12.703Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:30.669Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "391",
-      "numforecasters": "105",
+      "numforecasts": "395",
+      "numforecasters": "106",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -44942,10 +45077,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:15.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:33.175Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "320",
-      "numforecasters": "142",
+      "numforecasts": "321",
+      "numforecasters": "143",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -44967,10 +45102,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:17.927Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:35.893Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "123",
-      "numforecasters": "56",
+      "numforecasts": "124",
+      "numforecasters": "57",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45002,10 +45137,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:20.260Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:38.704Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "429",
-      "numforecasters": "135",
+      "numforecasts": "431",
+      "numforecasters": "136",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"
@@ -45023,19 +45158,19 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.39,
+        "probability": 0.35,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Not before 18 September 2021",
-        "probability": 0.61,
+        "probability": 0.65,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:22.264Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:40.956Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "682",
-      "numforecasters": "113",
+      "numforecasts": "690",
+      "numforecasters": "114",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021"
@@ -45057,10 +45192,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:24.334Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:44.003Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "225",
-      "numforecasters": "52",
+      "numforecasts": "226",
+      "numforecasters": "53",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45073,7 +45208,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than $75 billion",
-        "probability": 0.22,
+        "probability": 0.23,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -45083,7 +45218,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
-        "probability": 0.21,
+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -45097,10 +45232,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:27.466Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:46.770Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "622",
-      "numforecasters": "125",
+      "numforecasts": "632",
+      "numforecasters": "126",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion"
@@ -45113,19 +45248,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.05,
+        "probability": 0.04,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.95,
+        "probability": 0.96,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:30.327Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:55.494Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "359",
-      "numforecasters": "89",
+      "numforecasts": "361",
+      "numforecasters": "90",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45152,10 +45287,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:32.584Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:06:58.187Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "231",
-      "numforecasters": "99",
+      "numforecasts": "232",
+      "numforecasters": "100",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No"
@@ -45177,10 +45312,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:34.751Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:00.217Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "595",
-      "numforecasters": "184",
+      "numforecasts": "596",
+      "numforecasters": "185",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45202,10 +45337,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:37.191Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:02.779Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "391",
-      "numforecasters": "121",
+      "numforecasts": "394",
+      "numforecasters": "122",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45227,7 +45362,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:45.373Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:04.611Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": "168",
       "numforecasters": "41",
@@ -45257,10 +45392,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:48.303Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:07.406Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "323",
-      "numforecasters": "117",
+      "numforecasts": "326",
+      "numforecasters": "118",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No"
@@ -45273,34 +45408,34 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Less than 1.500",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.37,
+        "probability": 0.38,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
-        "probability": 0.55,
+        "probability": 0.56,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
-        "probability": 0.07,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "More than 3.000",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:50.700Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:10.815Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "524",
-      "numforecasters": "87",
+      "numforecasts": "535",
+      "numforecasters": "88",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000"
@@ -45322,10 +45457,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:53.316Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:13.244Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "404",
-      "numforecasters": "103",
+      "numforecasts": "406",
+      "numforecasters": "104",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45338,19 +45473,19 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.31,
+        "probability": 0.32,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.69,
+        "probability": 0.68,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:55.720Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:15.437Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "325",
-      "numforecasters": "90",
+      "numforecasts": "328",
+      "numforecasters": "91",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45377,9 +45512,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:07:58.040Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:18.393Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "894",
+      "numforecasts": "902",
       "numforecasters": "236",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45412,10 +45547,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:00.428Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:20.736Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "763",
-      "numforecasters": "261",
+      "numforecasts": "766",
+      "numforecasters": "262",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No"
@@ -45437,9 +45572,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:03.055Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:22.872Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "407",
+      "numforecasts": "409",
       "numforecasters": "167",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45462,10 +45597,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:05.521Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:25.549Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "563",
-      "numforecasters": "140",
+      "numforecasts": "566",
+      "numforecasters": "141",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45487,10 +45622,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:07.946Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:28.329Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "404",
-      "numforecasters": "159",
+      "numforecasts": "405",
+      "numforecasters": "160",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45512,7 +45647,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:09.743Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:30.611Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": "155",
       "numforecasters": "51",
@@ -45537,7 +45672,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:12.360Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:33.196Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": "164",
       "numforecasters": "70",
@@ -45562,9 +45697,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:14.187Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:35.360Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "604",
+      "numforecasts": "606",
       "numforecasters": "254",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45578,18 +45713,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.55,
+        "probability": 0.56,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.45,
+        "probability": 0.44,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:16.582Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:37.891Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "433",
+      "numforecasts": "434",
       "numforecasters": "145",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45612,10 +45747,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:19.415Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:40.136Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "866",
-      "numforecasters": "514",
+      "numforecasts": "874",
+      "numforecasters": "519",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -45637,9 +45772,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:22.147Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:42.923Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "301",
+      "numforecasts": "302",
       "numforecasters": "95",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45658,7 +45793,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "1",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -45668,7 +45803,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "3",
-        "probability": 0.78,
+        "probability": 0.8,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -45677,9 +45812,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:24.648Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:51.515Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "225",
+      "numforecasts": "226",
       "numforecasters": "59",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45702,7 +45837,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:26.787Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:53.821Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": "291",
       "numforecasters": "78",
@@ -45727,9 +45862,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:28.872Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:56.443Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "1715",
+      "numforecasts": "1725",
       "numforecasters": "551",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45752,9 +45887,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:31.102Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:07:58.630Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "522",
+      "numforecasts": "523",
       "numforecasters": "196",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45777,9 +45912,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:38.389Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:01.415Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "1065",
+      "numforecasts": "1068",
       "numforecasters": "199",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45802,9 +45937,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:40.736Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:03.312Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "1015",
+      "numforecasts": "1016",
       "numforecasters": "297",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45842,9 +45977,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:43.493Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:06.127Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "590",
+      "numforecasts": "591",
       "numforecasters": "122",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -45867,9 +46002,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:08:45.650Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:08.676Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "905",
+      "numforecasts": "908",
       "numforecasters": "170",
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -47191,118 +47326,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase more than 0.6%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.6% in June, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.21,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.79,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 16,
-      "yes_ask": 22,
-      "spread": 6,
-      "volume": 8258,
-      "open_interest": 4934
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the US trade deficit in goods with China be above $30 billion?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the US trade deficit in goods with China is above $30 billion in May, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly trade balance in goods between the United States and China contained in Exhibit 19 of the US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900) report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.57,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 49,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 51,
-      "volume": 3508,
-      "open_interest": 3504
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will real GDP increase by more than 6%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If real GDP increases by more than 6% in Q2 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The Advance Estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.88,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.12,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 88,
-      "yes_ask": 90,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 14542,
-      "open_interest": 9906
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will new U.S. home sales be above 750,000?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If new U.S. home sales are above 750,000 in June, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of seasonally adjusted “New Residential Sales” found in the monthly New Residential Sales report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.61,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.39,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 58,
-      "yes_ask": 61,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 7904,
-      "open_interest": 4518
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record?",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
@@ -47311,51 +47334,23 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
+        "probability": 0.95,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 14,
-      "yes_ask": 16,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 3,
+      "yes_ask": 5,
       "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 44900,
-      "open_interest": 24624
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the target federal funds rate be above 0.25%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the target federal funds rate exceeds 0.25% on the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.5 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 17358,
-      "open_interest": 8732
+      "volume": 52356,
+      "open_interest": 25592
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -47376,9 +47371,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
+      "stars": 2,
       "yes_bid": 72,
       "yes_ask": 78,
       "spread": 6,
@@ -47387,62 +47382,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for April exceed 365 million metric tons?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for April exceeds 365 million metric tons, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.  Please see Rule 100.6 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate for total carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Table 11.1 of the Monthly Energy Review published by the Energy Information Administration. (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 49,
-      "yes_ask": 52,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 7208,
-      "open_interest": 6020
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the US trade deficit in goods with China for June be above $28 billion?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the US trade deficit in goods with China for the month of June 2021 is above $28 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.  Please see Rule 100.1 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly trade balance in goods between the United States and China contained in Exhibit 19 of the US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900) report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.43,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 42,
-      "yes_ask": 44,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 1278,
-      "open_interest": 870
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will federal student loan forbearance be extended?",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
@@ -47451,107 +47390,23 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.65,
+        "probability": 0.98,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.35,
+        "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 62,
-      "yes_ask": 65,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 12740,
-      "open_interest": 3858
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) in July be above 5.7%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the unemployment rate (U-3) is above 5.7% in July 2021 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.10 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.64,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.36,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 63,
-      "yes_ask": 64,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 97,
+      "yes_ask": 98,
       "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 9776,
-      "open_interest": 6526
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 183,750,000 Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by July 11?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 183,750,000 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 38800,
-      "open_interest": 18616
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If there is no press release published by the IOC indicating that the Opening Ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics has occured on or by July 23, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The press releases posted on the official Olympics.com news section or in the IOC website’s news section. (https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/Kalshi+Source-Will+the+Tokyo+Summer+Olympics+be+cancelled_.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 50666,
-      "open_interest": 33756
+      "volume": 70098,
+      "open_interest": 24330
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -47572,9 +47427,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
+      "stars": 3,
       "yes_bid": 1,
       "yes_ask": 2,
       "spread": 1,
@@ -47591,163 +47446,23 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.22,
+        "probability": 0.21,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.78,
+        "probability": 0.79,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
+      "stars": 3,
       "yes_bid": 20,
       "yes_ask": 22,
       "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 8796,
-      "open_interest": 5016
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album have at least twice the debut week consumption of “When We All Fall Asleep”?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of Album Units earned by Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album by August 5, 2021 is strictly greater than 718,920, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.8 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nBillie Eilish’s album “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” earned 359,460 Album Units in its first week according to Alpha Data LLC.. The resolution source is: The number of Album Units, which includes both album sales and digital streams, earned by Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album project, reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange’s agreement with Alpha Data LLC. (https://alphadata.fm/)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 2,
-      "yes_ask": 3,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 27088,
-      "open_interest": 10404
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 185,265,124 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.11 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 98,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 5350,
-      "open_interest": 3980
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 187 million Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by July 18?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 187 million Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.11 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 2,
-      "yes_ask": 3,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 8490,
-      "open_interest": 5542
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,007,179 for the week ending July 18, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,007,179 for the week ending July 11, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 97,
-      "yes_ask": 98,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 4922,
-      "open_interest": 3222
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,041,682 for the week ending July 18, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,041,682 for the week ending July 11, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.85,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 81,
-      "yes_ask": 85,
-      "spread": 4,
-      "volume": 25416,
-      "open_interest": 11708
+      "volume": 11732,
+      "open_interest": 6656
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -47759,835 +47474,23 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.48,
+        "probability": 0.56,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.52,
+        "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 48,
-      "yes_ask": 51,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 14008,
-      "open_interest": 8414
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will initial jobless claims be higher than 350,000 for the week ending July 17?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If initial jobless claims are greater than 350,000 for the week ending on July 17, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.18 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The advance figure for United States seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.46,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.54,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 44,
-      "yes_ask": 46,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 54,
+      "yes_ask": 56,
       "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 3116,
-      "open_interest": 1498
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 90° on Saturday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 17, 2021 is strictly greater than 90°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 17, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 9382,
-      "open_interest": 2152
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 83° on Sunday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 18, 2021 is strictly greater than 83°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 18, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 8110,
-      "open_interest": 2082
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 82° on Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 19, 2021 is strictly greater than 82°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 19, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 18368,
-      "open_interest": 5112
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 89° on Tuesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 20, 2021 is strictly greater than 89°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 20, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 10676,
-      "open_interest": 6304
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,055,206 for the week ending July 25, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,055,206 for the week ending July 18, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.06,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.94,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 6,
-      "yes_ask": 7,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 18322,
-      "open_interest": 3114
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 187,944,234 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 98,
-      "yes_ask": 99,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 23248,
-      "open_interest": 11144
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,207,341 for the week ending July 25, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,207,341 for the week ending July 18, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.4,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 59,
-      "yes_ask": 62,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 3686,
-      "open_interest": 1672
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Tuesday than last Tuesday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,832,878 on July 20, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,832,878 on Tuesday, July 13, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 4192,
-      "open_interest": 3506
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 88° on Wednesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 21, 2021 is strictly greater than 88°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 21, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 3296,
-      "open_interest": 1212
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will total US credit card debt in Q2 be above 800 billion dollars?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If total US credit card debt in Q2 2021 is strictly greater than 800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.22 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The total amount of US credit card debt reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Household Debt and Credit Report. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 16610,
-      "open_interest": 6600
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 85° on Thursday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 22, 2021 is strictly greater than 85°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 22, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 5340,
-      "open_interest": 590
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Wednesday than last Wednesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,900,945 on July 21, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,900,945 on Wednesday, July 14, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1448,
-      "open_interest": 1394
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 82° on Thursday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 22, 2021 is strictly greater than 82°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 22, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 11564,
-      "open_interest": 3780
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 84° on Friday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 23, 2021 is strictly greater than 84°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 23, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 2760,
-      "open_interest": 354
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Thursday than last Thursday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,152,053 on July 22, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,152,053 on Thursday, July 15, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 6674,
-      "open_interest": 5220
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will initial jobless claims be higher than 380,000 for the week ending July 24?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If inital jobless claims are greater than 380,000 for the week ending on July 24, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.18 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The advance figure for United States seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.68,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 67,
-      "yes_ask": 69,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 2418,
-      "open_interest": 1836
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate be above 2.80%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate for the week ending July 29, 2021 is above 2.80%, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.23 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate reported by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (“PMMS”). (http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 4008,
-      "open_interest": 2482
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Friday than last Friday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,199,815 on July 23, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,199,815 on Friday, July 16, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.24,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.76,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 3332,
-      "open_interest": 3292
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 81° on Saturday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 24, 2021 is strictly greater than 81°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 24, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 5832,
-      "open_interest": 1206
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be over 65,000 new COVID-19 cases on Friday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 repoted on July 23, 2021 is greater than 65,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 reported on July 23, 2021, as recorded in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 2,
-      "yes_ask": 50,
-      "spread": 48,
-      "volume": 38276,
-      "open_interest": 14244
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the first week consumption of Kanye’s “Donda” album outperform “Jesus is King”?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of Album Units earned by Kanye West’s “Donda” album by July 29, 2021 is strictly greater than 269,301, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.24 in the Rulebook for details.\n\n Kanye’s album “Jesus is King” earned 269,301 Album Units in its first week according to Alpha Data LLC.. The resolution source is: The number of Album Units, which includes both album sales and digital streams, earned by Kanye West’s “Donda” album project, reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange’s agreement with Alpha Data LLC. (https://alphadata.fm/)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 30600,
-      "open_interest": 18576
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Saturday than last Saturday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,979,981 on July 24, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,979,981 on Saturday, July 17, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 2248,
-      "open_interest": 308
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 84° on Sunday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 25, 2021 is strictly greater than 84°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 25, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 3,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 3096,
-      "open_interest": 1682
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 89° on Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 26, 2021 is strictly greater than 89°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 26, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 10754,
-      "open_interest": 5294
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Sunday than last Sunday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,227,704 on July 25, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,227,704 on Sunday, July 18, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1540,
-      "open_interest": 1044
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be over 80,000 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 25, 2021 is greater than 80,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 12956,
-      "open_interest": 9738
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 91° on Tuesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 27, 2021 is strictly greater than 91°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 27, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 12232,
-      "open_interest": 3208
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Monday than last Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,141,429 on July 26, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,141,429 on Monday, July 19, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 4592,
-      "open_interest": 2570
+      "volume": 17096,
+      "open_interest": 9018
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -48608,98 +47511,14 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 55,
-      "yes_ask": 56,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 56,
+      "yes_ask": 57,
       "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 6184,
-      "open_interest": 4420
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,046,997 for the week ending August 1, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,046,997 for the week ending July 25, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 97,
-      "yes_ask": 98,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 8092,
-      "open_interest": 2452
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 190,905,875 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 14530,
-      "open_interest": 5432
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,236,028 for the week ending August 1, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,236,028 for the week ending July 25, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.26,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.74,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 23,
-      "yes_ask": 26,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 3350,
-      "open_interest": 640
+      "volume": 6880,
+      "open_interest": 4708
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -48708,1154 +47527,6 @@
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
     "platform": "Kalshi",
     "description": "If new U.S. home sales are above 690,000 in July 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.3 for more details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of seasonally adjusted “New Residential Sales” found in the monthly New Residential Sales report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.23,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.77,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 22,
-      "yes_ask": 25,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 1278,
-      "open_interest": 474
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 30,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported for Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 26, 2021 is greater than 30,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 98,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 9580,
-      "open_interest": 3812
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 88° on Wednesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 28, 2021 is strictly greater than 88°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 28, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 356,
-      "open_interest": 304
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the estimated US carbon emissions for May be over 385 million metric tons?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for May exceeds 385 million metric tons, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.  Please see Rule 100.6 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate for total carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Table 11.1 of the Monthly Energy Review published by the Energy Information Administration. (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.44,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.56,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 44,
-      "yes_ask": 47,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 970,
-      "open_interest": 818
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 60,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported for Tuesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 27, 2021 is greater than 60,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 10830,
-      "open_interest": 9204
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 74° on Thursday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 29, 2021 is strictly greater than 74°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 29, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 98,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 5948,
-      "open_interest": 1480
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Wednesday than last Wednesday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,934,918 on July 28, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,934,918 on Wednesday, July 21, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1422,
-      "open_interest": 1004
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will income taxes on the highest income bracket increase?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the highest personal income tax rate imposed on the highest income bracket to be strictly greater than 37% becomes law, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.27 in the Rulebook for more information.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “became law”. (https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22law%22%7D)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.57,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 54,
-      "yes_ask": 57,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 3124,
-      "open_interest": 2948
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 95,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported on Wednesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 28, 2021 is greater than 95,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.  (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 18134,
-      "open_interest": 5544
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the target federal funds rate be above 0.25%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the target federal funds rate exceeds 0.25% on the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.5 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.96,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 3,
-      "yes_ask": 4,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1306,
-      "open_interest": 1242
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Thursday than last Thursday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,101,343 on July 29, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,101,343 on Thursday, July 22, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 2478,
-      "open_interest": 1616
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will initial jobless claims be higher than 380,000 for the week ending July 31?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If initial jobless claims are greater than 380,000 for the week ending on July 31, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.18 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The advance figure for United States seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.55,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 53,
-      "yes_ask": 56,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 3238,
-      "open_interest": 1760
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate be above 2.82%?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate for the week ending August 5, 2021 is above 2.82%, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.23 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate reported by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (“PMMS”). (http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.17,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.83,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 16,
-      "yes_ask": 19,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 7590,
-      "open_interest": 6230
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 80° on Friday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 30, 2021 is strictly greater than 80°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 30, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 25812,
-      "open_interest": 11074
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 93,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported for Thursday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 29, 2021 is greater than 93,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 22078,
-      "open_interest": 5426
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 76° on Saturday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 31, 2021 is strictly greater than 76°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 31, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 15,
-      "yes_ask": 99,
-      "spread": 84,
-      "volume": 20036,
-      "open_interest": 10294
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will average gas prices be over $3.11?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.11 on August 2, 2021, the market resolves to yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.28 in the Rulebook for more information.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for August 2, 2021, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_GND_DCUS_NUS_W.htm)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.95,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 95,
-      "yes_ask": 97,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 10512,
-      "open_interest": 8642
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Friday than last Friday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,159,300 on July 30, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,159,300 on Friday, July 23, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1022,
-      "open_interest": 640
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Senate pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill before August 10?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If a bill that meets the following four conditions is documented on Congress.gov, then the market resolves to Yes. The four conditions are: first, Congress.gov’s legislation tracker records that the bill has “Passed Senate” before August 10, 2021; second, that at least sixty Senators voted to pass the bill, as recorded in the “Actions” section of the Congress.gov legislation tracker; third, the CBO’s most recent cost estimate for the bill estimates that the bill’s total spending for the period 2021-2031 is strictly greater than $600 billion; and fourth, the bill must primarily address the topic of domestic infrastructure, including allocating money to at least three of the following: roads, bridges, rail, broadband, public transit, power infrastructure or water infrastructure as determined by the text of the bill. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.29 in the Rulebook for more information.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “Passed Senate” and the CBO's Cost Estimates. (https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/Kalshi_Source_Agencies_INFR.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.66,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 65,
-      "yes_ask": 67,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 57396,
-      "open_interest": 12980
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 75° on Sunday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 1, 2021 is strictly greater than 75°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on August 1, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 98,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 14842,
-      "open_interest": 3770
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Saturday than last Saturday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,942,871 on July 31, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,942,871 on Saturday, July 24, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1928,
-      "open_interest": 468
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will New York City reinstate an indoor mask mandate?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the New York City Mayor's Office or the New York State Governor's Office issues a news article that includes documentation of an indoor mask mandate in New York City that applies to individuals regardless of vaccination status and that will go into effect within two weeks of the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date will not be taken into account. Please see MASK-001 in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nClarification at 1:40pm ET 07/31/2021: The term \"news articles\" refers to all written press releases or notices published by the Source Agencies in the manner specified by the Underlying in MASK-001 in the Rulebook.. The resolution source is: The news articles issued by either the New York City Mayor’s Office or the New York State Governor’s Office. (https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/kalshi_source_mask.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 13356,
-      "open_interest": 5842
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will it rain in New York City on Sunday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of inches of precipitation by 11:45pm ET on August 1, 2021, documented by the Hudson River at Pier 26 measurement point, is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.30 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of inches of precipitation measured by the USGS’s National Water Information System station at the “Hudson River at Pier 26” measurement point. To find precipitation, scroll down to “Select Data to Graph,” and select “Precipitation, total, inches” if it is not already selected. Then, scroll back up to “Change time span,” and enter the date in question. (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01376520/#parameterCode=00045&period=P7D)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.61,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.39,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 15,
-      "yes_ask": 65,
-      "spread": 50,
-      "volume": 17448,
-      "open_interest": 1876
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will it rain in New York City on Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of inches of precipitation by 11:45pm ET on August 2, 2021, documented by the Hudson River at Pier 26 measurement point, is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.30 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of inches of precipitation measured by the USGS’s National Water Information System station at the “Hudson River at Pier 26” measurement point. To find precipitation, scroll down to “Select Data to Graph,” and select “Precipitation, total, inches” if it is not already selected.  Then, scroll back up to “Change time span,” and enter the date in question. (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01376520/#parameterCode=00045&period=P7D)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 1,
-      "yes_ask": 2,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 4388,
-      "open_interest": 1478
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Sunday than last Sunday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,177,129 on August 1, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,177,129 on Sunday, July 25, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 420,
-      "open_interest": 420
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 80° on Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 2, 2021 is strictly greater than 80°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on August 2, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 8016,
-      "open_interest": 2336
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 78° on Tuesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 3, 2021 is strictly greater than 78°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on August 3, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 12644,
-      "open_interest": 3894
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Monday than last Monday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,124,474 on August 2, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,124,474 on Monday, July 26, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 3864,
-      "open_interest": 2980
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,068,411 for the week ending August 8, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,068,411 for the week ending August 1, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.1,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 9,
-      "yes_ask": 11,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 15030,
-      "open_interest": 3360
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 110,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported on Monday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for August 2, 2021 is greater than 110,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.  (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 1,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 24332,
-      "open_interest": 14882
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will over 225 million Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by November 1?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 225,000,000 Americans are reported by the CDC as vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.37,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.63,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 37,
-      "yes_ask": 39,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 2582,
-      "open_interest": 1294
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index rise more than 0.5% in October?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.5% in October 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.4 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for October 2021, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.49,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.51,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 48,
-      "yes_ask": 51,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 1496,
-      "open_interest": 1496
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If over 194,525,778 Americans are reported by the CDC as vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.71,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 71,
-      "yes_ask": 73,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 4268,
-      "open_interest": 1798
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,219,499 for the week ending August 8, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,219,499 for the week ending August 1, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.56,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 55,
-      "yes_ask": 58,
-      "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 1764,
-      "open_interest": 1372
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 76° on Wednesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 4, 2021 is strictly greater than 76°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on August 4, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.02,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.98,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 2,
-      "yes_ask": 4,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 24172,
-      "open_interest": 5008
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Tuesday than last Tuesday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,858,328 on August 3, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,858,328 on Tuesday, July 27, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 100,
-      "volume": 2166,
-      "open_interest": 1078
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Kanye drop Donda by Friday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of Album Units earned by Kanye West’s “Donda” album by August 6, 2021 is strictly greater than zero, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see DONDA in the Rulebook for details.\n\nClarification as of 11:30 AM ET on 08/03/2021: “by August 6, 2021\" includes any data reported to the Exchange for the day of August 6th.. The resolution source is: The number of Album Units, which includes both album sales and digital streams, earned by Kanye West’s “Donda” album project, reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange’s agreement with Alpha Data LLC.  (https://alphadata.fm/)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.66,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 65,
-      "yes_ask": 66,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 3754,
-      "open_interest": 2042
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will it rain in New York City on Wednesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at the Hudson River at Pier 26 measurement point by 11:45PM ET on August 4, 2021 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.30 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of inches of precipitation measured by the USGS’s National Water Information System station at the “Hudson River at Pier 26” measurement point. To find precipitation, scroll down to “Select Data to Graph,” and select “Precipitation, total, inches” if it is not already selected.  Then, scroll back up to “Change time span,” and enter the date in question. (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01376520/#parameterCode=00045&period=P7D)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.1,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 9,
-      "yes_ask": 11,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 8866,
-      "open_interest": 2564
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will average gas prices be higher this week than last week?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.134 on August 9, 2021, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.28 in the Rulebook for more information. \n\n Average gas prices were $3.134 on August 2, 2021.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for August 9, 2021, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_GND_DCUS_NUS_W.htm)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.58,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 56,
-      "yes_ask": 58,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 2398,
-      "open_interest": 1102
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will under 1,017 medals be awarded at the Tokyo Olympics?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of medals awarded at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is strictly less than 1,017, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions after Expiration will not be taken into account.\n\n1,017 medals spanning 339 events are expected to be awarded at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.. The resolution source is: The total number of medals awarded at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, as documented on the Olympics.com medal standings. In particular, the Underlying is the sum of the numbers in the “Total” column of the Olympic Medal Count table. (https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/all-sports/medal-standings.htm)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.05,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.95,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 5,
-      "yes_ask": 7,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 5568,
-      "open_interest": 4284
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be more than 85,000 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday?",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for August 3, 2021 is greater than 85,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.  (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 99,
-      "yes_ask": 100,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 15416,
-      "open_interest": 1056
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Wednesday than last Wednesday? ",
-    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
-    "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,923,980 on August 4, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,923,980 on Wednesday, July 28, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
@@ -49868,78 +47539,218 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 22,
-      "yes_ask": 25,
+      "stars": 2,
+      "yes_bid": 21,
+      "yes_ask": 24,
       "spread": 3,
-      "volume": 3186,
-      "open_interest": 2072
+      "volume": 1406,
+      "open_interest": 580
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 78° on Thursday?",
+    "title": "Will the estimated US carbon emissions for May be over 385 million metric tons?",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
     "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 5, 2021 is strictly greater than 78°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on August 5, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
+    "description": "If the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for May exceeds 385 million metric tons, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.  Please see Rule 100.6 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate for total carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Table 11.1 of the Monthly Energy Review published by the Energy Information Administration. (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php)",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.72,
+        "probability": 0.48,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.28,
+        "probability": 0.52,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 71,
-      "yes_ask": 73,
-      "spread": 2,
-      "volume": 5760,
-      "open_interest": 868
+      "stars": 2,
+      "yes_bid": 45,
+      "yes_ask": 48,
+      "spread": 3,
+      "volume": 1100,
+      "open_interest": 818
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will it rain in New York City on Thursday?",
+    "title": "Will income taxes on the highest income bracket increase?",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
     "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at the Hudson River at Pier 26 measurement point by 11:45pm ET on August 5, 2021 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see RAINNY in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of inches of precipitation measured by the USGS’s National Water Information System station at the “Hudson River at Pier 26” measurement point. To find precipitation, scroll down to “Select Data to Graph,” and select “Precipitation, total, inches” if it is not already selected.  Then, scroll back up to “Change time span,” and enter the date in question. (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01376520/#parameterCode=00045&period=P7D)",
+    "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the highest personal income tax rate imposed on the highest income bracket to be strictly greater than 37% becomes law, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.27 in the Rulebook for more information.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “became law”. (https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22law%22%7D)",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.25,
+        "probability": 0.53,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.75,
+        "probability": 0.47,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 24,
-      "yes_ask": 25,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 52,
+      "yes_ask": 55,
+      "spread": 3,
+      "volume": 3926,
+      "open_interest": 3162
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the target federal funds rate be above 0.25%?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the target federal funds rate exceeds 0.25% on the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.5 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.98,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 2,
+      "yes_ask": 3,
       "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 1652,
-      "open_interest": 1200
+      "volume": 1806,
+      "open_interest": 1542
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will there be over 100,000 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday?",
+    "title": "Will the Senate pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill before August 10?",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
     "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for August 3, 2021 is greater than 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.  (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
+    "description": "If a bill that meets the following four conditions is documented on Congress.gov, then the market resolves to Yes. The four conditions are: first, Congress.gov's legislation tracker records that the bill has \"Passed Senate\" before August 10, 2021; second, that at least sixty Senators voted to pass the bill, as recorded in the \"Actions\" section of the Congress.gov legislation tracker; third, the CBO's most recent cost estimate for the bill estimates that the bill's total spending for the period 2021-2031 is strictly greater than $600 billion; and fourth, the bill must primarily address the topic of domestic infrastructure, including allocating money to at least three of the following: roads, bridges, rail, broadband, public transit, power infrastructure or water infrastructure as determined by the text of the bill. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.29 in the Rulebook for more information.\n\nClarification as of 11:30pm ET on August 5, 2021: As noted in the Rulebook, the third condition above relies on a bill's total spending, defined by the greater of the Contract Authority and Budget Authority of the bill, for 2021-2031 as reported by the CBO's most recent cost estimate for the bill.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “Passed Senate” and the CBO's Cost Estimates. (https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/Kalshi_Source_Agencies_INFR.pdf)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.41,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 38,
+      "yes_ask": 39,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 138522,
+      "open_interest": 20916
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,068,411 for the week ending August 8, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,068,411 for the week ending August 1, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.98,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2,
+      "yes_bid": 0,
+      "yes_ask": 1,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 18614,
+      "open_interest": 686
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will over 225 million Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by November 1?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If over 225,000,000 Americans are reported by the CDC as vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.43,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 42,
+      "yes_ask": 44,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 3898,
+      "open_interest": 2582
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index rise more than 0.5% in October?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.5% in October 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.4 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for October 2021, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.53,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.47,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 50,
+      "yes_ask": 53,
+      "spread": 3,
+      "volume": 1812,
+      "open_interest": 1812
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week? ",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If over 194,525,778 Americans are reported by the CDC as vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
@@ -49952,42 +47763,350 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
-      "yes_bid": 98,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 97,
       "yes_ask": 99,
-      "spread": 1,
-      "volume": 60946,
-      "open_interest": 18742
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 31256,
+      "open_interest": 16050
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will there be more than 108,000 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday?",
+    "title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
     "url": "https://kalshi.com",
     "platform": "Kalshi",
-    "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for August 4, 2021 is greater than 108,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.  (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
+    "description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,219,499 for the week ending August 8, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,219,499 for the week ending August 1, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.11,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 1,
+        "probability": 0.89,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 4,
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 11,
+      "yes_ask": 13,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 16164,
+      "open_interest": 5434
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will average gas prices be higher this week than last week?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.134 on August 9, 2021, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.28 in the Rulebook for more information. \n\n Average gas prices were $3.134 on August 2, 2021.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for August 9, 2021, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_GND_DCUS_NUS_W.htm)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.63,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.37,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 61,
+      "yes_ask": 63,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 4950,
+      "open_interest": 2942
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will under 1,017 medals be awarded at the Tokyo Olympics?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the number of medals awarded at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is strictly less than 1,017, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions after Expiration will not be taken into account.\n\n1,017 medals spanning 339 events are expected to be awarded at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.. The resolution source is: The total number of medals awarded at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, as documented on the Olympics.com medal standings. In particular, the Underlying is the sum of the numbers in the “Total” column of the Olympic Medal Count table. (https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/all-sports/medal-standings.htm)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.01,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.99,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
       "yes_bid": 0,
-      "yes_ask": 0,
-      "spread": 0,
-      "volume": 0,
-      "open_interest": 0
+      "yes_ask": 1,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 18606,
+      "open_interest": 11792
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate be above 2.80%? ",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate for the week ending August 12, 2021 is above 2.80%, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see FRM in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate reported by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (“PMMS”). (http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.14,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.86,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 14,
+      "yes_ask": 16,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 2976,
+      "open_interest": 2650
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will initial jobless claims be higher than 370,000 for the week ending August 7?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If initial jobless claims are greater than 370,000 for the week ending on August 7, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see JOBS in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The advance figure for United States seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.56,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2,
+      "yes_bid": 55,
+      "yes_ask": 56,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 322,
+      "open_interest": 312
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will real GDP increase by more than 6% in Q3?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If real GDP increases by more than 6% in Q3 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see GDP in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The Advance Estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.82,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2,
+      "yes_bid": 81,
+      "yes_ask": 83,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 976,
+      "open_interest": 912
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a recession start this year?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is strictly less than zero in at least one of Q3 2021, Q4 2021, Q1 2022, and Q2 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see RECSS in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.12,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.88,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2,
+      "yes_bid": 12,
+      "yes_ask": 13,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 946,
+      "open_interest": 648
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will consumption of Billie Eilish’s Happier Than Ever album be above 200,000 Album Units?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the number of Album Units earned by Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album by August 12, 2021 is strictly greater than 200,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see ALBM in the Rulebook for details.\n\nClarification as of 3:30pm August 6, 2021. The Underlying is the consumption of Billie Eilish's Happier Than Ever album project reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange's agreement with Alpha Data LLC. The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying for the statistical period of the week ending August 12, 2021. The weekly statistical period runs from Friday at 12:00am ET to the following Thursday at 11:59pm ET.. The resolution source is: The number of Album Units, which includes both album sales and digital streams, earned by Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album project, reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange’s agreement with Alpha Data LLC. (https://alphadata.fm/)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.09,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.91,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 7,
+      "yes_ask": 9,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 49276,
+      "open_interest": 11746
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 85 on Saturday?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 7, 2021 is strictly greater than 85°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on August 7, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.99,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 99,
+      "yes_ask": 100,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 27172,
+      "open_interest": 12306
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Saturday than last Saturday?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,007,412 on August 7, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,007,412 on Saturday, July 31, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.04,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.96,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 4,
+      "yes_ask": 5,
+      "spread": 1,
+      "volume": 3522,
+      "open_interest": 3522
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the high in New York City be over 77° on Sunday?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on August 8, 2021 is strictly greater than 77°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on , as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.31,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.69,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 29,
+      "yes_ask": 31,
+      "spread": 2,
+      "volume": 5178,
+      "open_interest": 3352
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will it rain in New York City on Sunday?",
+    "url": "https://kalshi.com",
+    "platform": "Kalshi",
+    "description": "If the number of inches of precipitation recorded at the Hudson River at Pier 26 measurement point by 11:45PM ET on August 8, 2021 is strictly greater than 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.30 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of inches of precipitation measured by the USGS’s National Water Information System station at the “Hudson River at Pier 26” measurement point. To find precipitation, scroll down to “Select Data to Graph,” and select “Precipitation, total, inches” if it is not already selected.  Then, scroll back up to “Change time span,” and enter the date in question. (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01376520/#parameterCode=00045&period=P7D)",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.66,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T23:06:41.765Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3,
+      "yes_bid": 63,
+      "yes_ask": 66,
+      "spread": 3,
+      "volume": 2902,
+      "open_interest": 2882
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -50038,7 +48157,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -50481,7 +48600,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -50719,7 +48838,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -50847,7 +48966,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -50875,7 +48994,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -50958,7 +49077,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.453Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -51081,7 +49200,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.418Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.453Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -51114,7 +49233,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.418Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.453Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
@@ -51217,12 +49336,35 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:08.418Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:31.453Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Nicolas Sarkozy, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Marion Marechal, Ségolène Royal, Valerie Pecresse, Edouard Philippe, Eric Zemmour, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Anne Hidalgo, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Benoit Hamon"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Andrew Cuomo Specials: Will Andrew Cuomo Still Be Governor Of New York On 1st January 2022?",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "Ladbrokes",
+    "description": "",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "No",
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+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Libertarian Party to win US Presidential election before 2041",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9803921568627451,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Nigel Farage to become UK PM in 2021",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.004975124378109453,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9950248756218906,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Amanda Gorman to be elected US President in 2036",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9900990099009901,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9705882352941176,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Boris Johnson to be replaced as PM before end 2022",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3333333333333333,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6666666666666667,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Ben Houchen to be UK PM before 2050",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9803921568627451,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Philip Proudfoot to become a UK MP before 2025",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9803921568627451,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Meghan Markle to win 2032 Democratic Presidential Nomination",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.014925373134328358,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9850746268656716,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Meghan Markle to become US President by 2065",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.024390243902439025,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.975609756097561,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.004975124378109453,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9950248756218906,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Gary Neville to become UK PM before 2050",
+    "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+    "platform": "LadBrokes",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9900990099009901,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/",
@@ -53747,7 +52255,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:14.745Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:37.678Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 68,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -53766,9 +52274,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under <a>$40/barrel</a> in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:20.257Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:42.912Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 373,
+      "numforecasts": 375,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -53796,9 +52304,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:25.660Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:48.343Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 126,
+      "numforecasts": 127,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -53809,15 +52317,34 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7558/algorithm-for-factoring-in-polynomial-time/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The question of whether or not an integer can be [factored in polynomial time](http://(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer_factorization)) (in the size of the input) is one of the most important problems in theoretical computer science. A quick algorithm for factoring could potentially [break RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_problem). [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm) is an algorithm for factoring in polynomial time using a quantum computer, but it is not a classical algorithm.\nWhen will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?\nThis question will resolve as the date of a publication in a major mathematical journal or computer science conference which proves the existence of a classical algorithm for factoring in polynomial time. It is not necessary for the algoritm itself to be known, or to be efficent or practical, it is sufficient to prove that some such algoritm exists.\nIf there is a proof published that shows that such an algorithm is impossible, this question will close retroactively 1 day before the paper is published/preprinted. The question would resolve as &gt;2121.\nThe algorithm is allowed to be randomized. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:08:58.754Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 25,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-26T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2121-01-21T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7616/-vaccine-accepting-virginians-on-1-oct/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Increasing the level of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake in Virginia is [key](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html) to slowing the rate of COVID-19 transmission in the state and lowering levels of morbidity and mortality. \nThe [University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/) is tracking the extent of vaccine acceptance in Virginia on a weekly basis — you can find its weekly updates [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/). It adjusts vaccine acceptance data from [COVIDcast](https://delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/indicator/?sensor=fb-survey-smoothed_wcovid_vaccinated_appointment_or_accept&amp;date=20210727&amp;region=VA) to correct for biases. COVIDcast in turn gets its data from surveys of Facebook users who “say they have already received a COVID vaccine, have an appointment to receive a COVID vaccine, or would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ choose to be vaccinated if a COVID vaccine were offered to them today.”\nThe most recent estimate of the percentage of Virginians that are “vaccine accepting” is 77% — see the “COVIDcast accepting corrected” column on slide 12 of the UVA Biocomplexity Institute’s 28 July COVID-19 Impact [update](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf).\nAccording to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the “COVIDcast accepting corrected” value that reflects vaccine acceptance in Virginia, as reported in the 1 October 2021 weekly update by UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute. It will be accessed [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/).\nIf the UVA Biocomplexity Institute stops reporting this value, we will use the [raw COVIDcast data for Virginia](https://delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/indicator/?sensor=fb-survey-smoothed_wcovid_vaccinated_appointment_or_accept&amp;date=20210727&amp;region=VA) as of 1 October 2021 and subtract it by 10% — for example, if on 1 October the value is 87% this question will resolve as 77%. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:30.882Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:03.978Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasts": 23,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -53845,7 +52372,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:36.085Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:09.247Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -53858,13 +52385,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.49,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.51,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:14.434Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 16,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&amp;feature=youtu.be&amp;t=1h30m02s) was that, \"Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&amp;feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.\nWe ask:\nWhat will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? \nTo calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the \"Total Size\" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .\n(*) Strictly speaking, this is \"bits-per-byte\" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:41.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:19.578Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -53877,15 +52434,34 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7618/va-18-24-age-group-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In Virginia, younger age groups have recently made up a growing share of overall vaccinations — see slide 11 in the 28 July COVID Impact [report](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf). However, the overall number of new daily vaccinations has recently plateaued at a low of about [12k](​​https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/).\nAs of 31 July, [43.5%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) of the 18-24 age group in Virginia is fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.\nWhat percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?\nThis will resolve as the percentage of 18-24 year old Virginians who are fully vaccinated as of 1 October 2021. This value will be accessed on the “Percent of the Population Fully Vaccinated - By Age Group” chart on the [VDH “COVID-19 Vaccine Demographics” dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:24.733Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 19,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-10T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\nRelated questions:\n--- \n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \nGWP in 2100, in trillions of US$ - (this question)\n--- \n[GWP in 2200, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:46.637Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:29.956Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 54,
+      "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -53897,34 +52473,42 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
+    "title": "How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.45,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.55,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:09:57.140Z",
+    "description": "Most scientists [now believe](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2) that, even with the vaccines, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will continue to circulate throughout the globe for many years to come. The new Delta variant has prompted [new alarm](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/17/1017075240/delta-variant-is-spreading-fast-and-new-cases-are-rising-is-time-to-mask-up-agai) and triggered again calls for indoor masking and social distancing. Anecdotally, many people are disgruntled by these developments, because they want life to truly get back to normal, the way it was back in 2019.\nIn order for life to return to complete normality by the end of the decade, there must be a presumption that COVID-19 is no longer a significant threat, and in any case will not get substantially worse if restrictions are lifted. One way of measuring this presumption is to predict how many deaths there will be of COVID-19 on average during the years to come.\nHow many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the mean number of people reported to have died of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022 through 2025, according to official statistics. In other words, add up the number of people who died during each year from 2022 to 2025, and divide that number by 4.\nOfficial statistics refer to statistics released by official government sources, such as the CDC. If no official statistics are provided, then authoritative academic reports will be consulted. If those are unavailable, then high quality media reports will be consulted. In case two sources conflict, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in deciding which source is more authoritative.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:35.255Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 156,
+      "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-21T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:40.567Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 190,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
     "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?",
@@ -53943,7 +52527,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:02.394Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:45.853Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 66,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -53962,9 +52546,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of 30 July 2021, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those [12 years of age and older](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), Moderna for [18 years of age and older](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and Janssen for those [18 years and older](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/janssen-covid-19-vaccine).\nThere are currently no vaccines authorized for use in children under 12. [Pfizer](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal) and [Moderna](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-first-participants-dosed-phase-23-study-0) are currently running trials for children under 12. According to a 26 July [report](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/politics/fda-covid-vaccine-trials-children.html) by the New York Times, both Pfizer and Moderna have recently been asked by the FDA to expand the size of their trials for children ages 5 to 11. \nIn its 28 July quarterly [report](https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf), Pfizer said it expects to “have the safety and immunogenicity data that could potentially support an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for use in children ages 5 to 11 years old, if such an EUA is deemed necessary, by the end of September. The full dataset from this study, which will be required to support [full BLA approval] licensure in this age group, is expected by the end of 2021.” According to the 26 July NYT [report](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/us/politics/fda-covid-vaccine-trials-children.html), Moderna expects “to seek emergency authorization late this year or early next year.”\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old?\nThis question resolves on the basis of a [press announcement by the FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for at least some children who are under 12 years of age. \nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2022, then this resolves as &gt; 31 July 2022.\nSee [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7119/vaccine-for-children-under-12-before-1-sept/) similar recently closed question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:07.577Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:50.974Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -53975,13 +52559,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).\nThe amount of data we consume and create shows a strong [growth trend](https://www.statista.com/statistics/871513/worldwide-data-created/). \nHumanity has been known to [lose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Alexandria) large amounts of information [before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baghdad_(1258)).\nWhen will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?\nThis question resolves when either two credible media sources or a peer-reviewed paper report that at least one zettabyte (10^21 bytes) of humanity's digital information has been irrevocably destroyed as the result of a single event. \nAdditional resolution details:\n---All data in question must have been destroyed within any window of 48 contiguous hours. \n---The information can reside on any number of systems located anywhere. \n---In order for this question to resolve positively, the information cannot have been intentionally destroyed by the legitimate users of the system as part of normal operation of the system. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:09:56.735Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 22,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7398/when-will-computers-be-competent-programmers/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938),\nWhile programming is one of the most broadly applicable skills in modern society, modern machine learning models still cannot code solutions to basic problems. Despite its importance, there has been surprisingly little work on evaluating code generation, and it can be difficult to accurately assess code generation performance rigorously. To meet this challenge, we introduce APPS, a benchmark for code generation. Unlike prior work in more restricted settings, our benchmark measures the ability of models to take an arbitrary natural language specification and generate satisfactory Python code. [...] Recent models such as GPT-Neo can pass approximately 20% of the test cases of introductory problems, so we find that machine learning models are now beginning to learn how to code. As the social significance of automatic code generation increases over the coming years, our benchmark can provide an important measure for tracking advancements.\nThis question will resolve according to rather stringent conditions. It will use the strict accuracy on the competition coding problems which \"requires programs pass every test case\" (as defined in section 4.2 of the paper), and it will require that the model be given only one try per problem. For reference, the best model GPT-Neo 2.7B received a strict accuracy of 3.9% on introductory problems, 0.57% on interview problems, and 0.0% on competition problems.\nWhen will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?\nThis question resolves on the date during which a credible paper or document of any kind is published on the internet indicating that some computer program has exceeded a top-1 strict accuracy of 80.0% on competition coding problems found in the APPS benchmark introduced by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938). Top-1 accuracy is distinguished, as in the paper, from top-k accuracy in which k outputs from the model are generated, and the best output is selected. In the benchmark, competition coding problems are\nat the level of the most advanced high school and collegiate programming competitions, including USACO, IOI, and ACM.\nSee also these questions:\n[Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/)\n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n[When will programs write programs for us?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)\nCheating, such as a program memorizing the solutions, obviously does not count towards resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:13.193Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:02.062Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -53998,15 +52601,34 @@
     "title": "When will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7613/cdc-recommends-booster-for-vulnerable-groups/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "It [remains](https://www.vox.com/2021/7/24/22591591/covid-vaccine-booster-shots-immunocompromised-older-americans) [unclear](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/science/covid-vaccine-booster-third-shot.html) when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for at least some vulnerable groups of fully vaccinated Americans (e.g.,immunocompromised groups or adults over 65 years old). There are currently [three vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine.\nOn 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a [statement](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-07/Delta_Variant_Study_Press_Statement_Final_7.8.21.pdf?IPpR1xZjlwvaUMQ9sRn2FkePcBiRPGqw) saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a [joint statement](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s-07082021.html) saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter [results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf), Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.”\nModerna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also [suggested](https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/moderna-co-founder-says-covid-19-booster-shots-will-almost-certainly-be-needed-1.5501545) that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing [discussion](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/) as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second dose to serve as a booster.\nWhen will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?\nThis resolves as the date when the [U.S. CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/archives.html) recommends that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. This can be any group of fully vaccinated Americans — some potential such groups might be immunocompromised people or those over a certain age (e.g., 65). \nIf this does not occur before 31 December 2021, then this resolves as &gt; Dec 31, 2022.\nThe booster dose recommendation can be for either an additional dose of vaccine with the original formulation or a modified dose specifically targeted at a new variant of concern. \n",
+    "description": "It [remains](https://www.vox.com/2021/7/24/22591591/covid-vaccine-booster-shots-immunocompromised-older-americans) [unclear](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/science/covid-vaccine-booster-third-shot.html) when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for at least some vulnerable groups of fully vaccinated Americans (e.g.,immunocompromised groups or adults over 65 years old). There are currently [three vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine.\nOn 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a [statement](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-07/Delta_Variant_Study_Press_Statement_Final_7.8.21.pdf?IPpR1xZjlwvaUMQ9sRn2FkePcBiRPGqw) saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a [joint statement](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s-07082021.html) saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter [results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf), Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.”\nModerna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also [suggested](https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/moderna-co-founder-says-covid-19-booster-shots-will-almost-certainly-be-needed-1.5501545) that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing [discussion](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/) as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second dose to serve as a booster.\nWhen will the U.S. CDC recommend that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?\nThis resolves as the date when the [U.S. CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/archives.html) recommends that at least some fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. This can be any group of fully vaccinated Americans — some potential such groups might be immunocompromised people or those over a certain age (e.g., 65). \nIf this does not occur before 31 December 2021, then this resolves as &gt; Dec 31, 2021.\nThe booster dose recommendation can be for either an additional dose of vaccine with the original formulation or a modified dose specifically targeted at a new variant of concern. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:18.390Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:12.542Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
         "close_time": "2021-08-24T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7614/cdc-recommends-booster-for-all-vaccinated-ppl/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "It [remains](https://www.vox.com/2021/7/24/22591591/covid-vaccine-booster-shots-immunocompromised-older-americans) [unclear](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/science/covid-vaccine-booster-third-shot.html) when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for all fully vaccinated Americans. There are currently [three vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine.\nOn 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a [statement](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-07/Delta_Variant_Study_Press_Statement_Final_7.8.21.pdf?IPpR1xZjlwvaUMQ9sRn2FkePcBiRPGqw) saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a [joint statement](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s-07082021.html) saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter [results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf), Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.”\nModerna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also [suggested](https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/moderna-co-founder-says-covid-19-booster-shots-will-almost-certainly-be-needed-1.5501545) that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing [discussion](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/) as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second booster dose.\nWhen will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?\nThis resolves as the date when the [U.S. CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/archives.html) recommends that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. \nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2022, then this resolves as &gt; 31 July 2022.\nThe booster dose recommendation can be for either an additional dose of vaccine with the original formulation or a modified dose specifically targeted at a new variant of concern. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:17.951Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 22,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z",
         "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
@@ -54019,7 +52641,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:29.150Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:23.096Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 204,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54033,83 +52655,72 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7614/cdc-recommends-booster-for-all-vaccinated-ppl/",
+    "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "It [remains](https://www.vox.com/2021/7/24/22591591/covid-vaccine-booster-shots-immunocompromised-older-americans) [unclear](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/science/covid-vaccine-booster-third-shot.html) when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for all fully vaccinated Americans. There are currently [three vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine.\nOn 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a [statement](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-07/Delta_Variant_Study_Press_Statement_Final_7.8.21.pdf?IPpR1xZjlwvaUMQ9sRn2FkePcBiRPGqw) saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a [joint statement](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s-07082021.html) saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter [results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf), Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.”\nModerna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also [suggested](https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/moderna-co-founder-says-covid-19-booster-shots-will-almost-certainly-be-needed-1.5501545) that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing [discussion](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/) as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second booster dose.\nWhen will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?\nThis resolves as the date when the [U.S. CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/archives.html) recommends that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. \nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2022, then this resolves as &gt; 31 July 2022.\nThe booster dose recommendation can be for either an additional dose of vaccine with the original formulation or a modified dose specifically targeted at a new variant of concern. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:34.927Z",
+    "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:28.436Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 285,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:33.674Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 179,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/",
+    "title": "How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.25,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.75,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:40.514Z",
+    "description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n--- \nRussia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUS: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n--- \nChina: 350 nuclear warheads\n--- \nFrance: 290 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUK: 225 nuclear warheads\n--- \nPakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIndia: 160 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIsrael: 90 nuclear warheads\n--- \nNorth Korea: Estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower.\")\nHow many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?\nThis question resolves as the number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) detonated offensively in total between the opening of this question and 2050. If there are no offensive detonations before 2050 by any state or non-state actor, then this question will resolve as &lt;1. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of January 1, 2055.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:38.912Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 107,
+      "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:13:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2055-01-02T00:13:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.25,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.75,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:45.828Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 23,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
     "title": "Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?",
@@ -54117,7 +52728,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "COVID-19 vaccination rates among older age groups is currently [substantially higher](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) in Virginia than for younger age groups. For instance, as of 27 April 2021 the vaccination rate per 100,000 for the 70-79 age group is 77,567 while this same rate is just 31,431 for the 20-29 age group. In large part because of this, younger people are making up an [increasing proportion of people hospitalized in Virginia](https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-covid-hospitalization-demographic-shift-20210425-y4yexdfoebf3jojvh2wh22rxda-story.html) — though as of late April 2021 those in the older age groups still make up the [majority of those hospitalized](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-demographics/).\nA key uncertainty is the extent to which the gap in vaccination rates among age groups and other factors will affect the age demographics of those hospitalized for COVID-19.\nAs of 27 April 2021, the [60-69 age group has the largest number of hospitalizations — 5,949](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-demographics/).\nWhich age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each age group corresponds to a number between 1 and 9:\n---0-9 years old: 1 \n---10-19 years old: 2 \n---20-29 years old: 3 \n---30-39 years old: 4 \n---40-49 years old: 5 \n---50-59 years old: 6 \n---60-69 years old: 7 \n---70-79 years old: 8 \n---80+ years old: 9 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 cases data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH for the week ending 1 August 2021 (26 July-1 August).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:51.066Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:44.113Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 124,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54147,9 +52758,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:10:56.264Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:49.299Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 117,
+      "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54160,15 +52771,34 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:54.530Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 136,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7627/date-of-va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular when the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might occur.\nWhen will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur?\nThis question will resolve as the date of the peak 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 deaths on the VDH [“Number of Deaths by Date of Death” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7626/va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/) related question on what this peak will be.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:01.894Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:10:59.733Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54179,6 +52809,232 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.32,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:04.936Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 760,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7349/industrial-production-index-july-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:10.126Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 82,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-09T23:55:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-08-19T23:55:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7357/initial-jobless-claims-august-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 2, 2021 for the reference date August 28, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:15.296Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 116,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-24T01:02:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-03T01:02:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:20.645Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 34,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.46,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.54,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:25.866Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 349,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.15,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.85,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:31.078Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 255,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:36.314Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 99,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.25,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.75,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:42.239Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 107,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.25,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.75,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:47.850Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/",
@@ -54196,9 +53052,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:07.347Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:53.163Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 31,
+      "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54210,93 +53066,33 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+    "title": "What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7626/va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n",
+    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might be.\nWhat will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 deaths on the VDH [“Number of Deaths by Date of Death” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7627/date-of-va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:12.640Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:11:58.337Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 99,
+      "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-08-24T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-08T16:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/)\nThe US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\".\nWill the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be [CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.54,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:17.891Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 209,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:18:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.55,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:23.093Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 129,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7353/us-durable-goods-orders-july-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for July 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:28.875Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:03.768Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 85,
+      "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54308,60 +53104,30 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
+    "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n",
+    "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.33,
+        "probability": 0.08,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+        "probability": 0.92,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:34.231Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:09.030Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 205,
+      "numforecasts": 975,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.7,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:39.424Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 104,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -54373,7 +53139,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&amp;view=map&amp;year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:44.777Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:14.228Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54392,7 +53158,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).\nThe question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? \nThis question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).\nFurther details: \n--- \nThe date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count\n--- \nBy citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong\n--- \nGenomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question\nGenotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say &gt;500k). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:50.067Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:19.687Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54406,23 +53172,34 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
+    "title": "Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7492/sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “&gt; Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:11:55.323Z",
+    "description": "The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then.\nThe speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. If at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months.\nSources: [https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim…](https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prime-minister-stefan-lofven-resigns/)\n[https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa…](https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefan-lofven-loses-no-confidence-motion/) (before the resignation)\nWill Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date.\nIn all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022).\nPre-votes (mail votes) may be sent beforehand, but for positive resolution there needs to be an actual \"voting day\" where physical voting locations are open to the public, before December 31. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.32,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:30.054Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 574,
+      "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
     "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
@@ -54430,7 +53207,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:01.017Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:40.676Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54443,15 +53220,34 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “&gt; Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:45.864Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 582,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:06.189Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:51.380Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 169,
+      "numforecasts": 170,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54468,7 +53264,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimuli for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:11.890Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:12:56.608Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54481,36 +53277,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.52,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.48,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:17.780Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 291,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
@@ -54528,9 +53294,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:23.171Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:02.574Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 1173,
+      "numforecasts": 1174,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54541,13 +53307,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.52,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.48,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:07.797Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 291,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:28.522Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:13.734Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 51,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54577,7 +53373,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:33.941Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:18.951Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 150,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54591,23 +53387,34 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+    "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:39.416Z",
+    "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.08,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.92,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:24.227Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 190,
+      "numforecasts": 382,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
     "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
@@ -54615,7 +53422,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&amp;=rus&amp;=chn&amp;=nga&amp;=afg&amp;=jpn&amp;=srb&amp;=dnk&amp;=fra;;;;&amp;marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&amp;scaleType=linear&amp;spaceRef:null;;;&amp;chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:44.627Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:29.514Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -54645,9 +53452,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:12:49.841Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:34.753Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 69,
+      "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -54658,621 +53465,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.12,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.88,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:00.369Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 57,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nHow many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?\nThis resolves as the number of papers published in 2022 on cultivated meat, according to [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&amp;year%5B1%5D=2021&amp;q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&amp;sort=relevance).\nThe relevant search query is the following (with no additional filters), [executable here](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&amp;year%5B1%5D=2021&amp;q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&amp;sort=relevance):\n((\"cultivated meat\" OR \"cultured meat\") OR (\"cell-based meat\" OR \"cell based meat\")) OR (\"cultured meat\" OR \"in vitro meat\")\nRunning this over the past few years, we get the following numbers:\n---2017: 37 \n---2018: 60 \n---2019: 85 \n---2020: 117 \nThe question resolves ambiguously if Semantic Scholar substantially changes its search application. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if, for the years 2017 to 2020, the relevant numbers differ by more than 80% relative to the numbers in the above list.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:05.561Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 71,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-31T22:02:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:02:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as &lt;20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:16.324Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 103,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:21.823Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 90,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T19:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use  autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.17,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.83,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:27.435Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 64,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into cultivated meat companies developing clean meat products in the US was [$77.1 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), with total investment between 2016 and 2019 standing at $166 million dollars. There are currently 125 independent investors in the industry, with 79% growth in the number of investors between 2018 and 2019. \nClosing [21 rounds in 2019](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), the largest round to date was Blue Nalu at $20 million dollars. With 58 completed rounds in total, this shows a large amount of growth and future opportunity for investment. With movements across the globe spurring the legalization of cultivated meat products in commercial settings, like [Eat Just's chicken nuggets in Singapore](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html), this industry could see rapid developments in product and profitability in the coming years.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling cultivated meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, cultivated meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, that is, in 2022 USD.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:32.852Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 39,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:43:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:43:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:38.079Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 121,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.75,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.25,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:43.477Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 134,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.43,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:48.676Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 41,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.18,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:54.021Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 63,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:13:59.686Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 145,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-02-20T22:01:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2048-01-19T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:04.912Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 98,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthodox, or [Haredi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism), was 9% as of 2017, and is projected to grow to 29% by 2059. A 2020 [report by the Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimates that as of 2020 12% of Israel's population is Haredi (1,125,000) and projects that this proportion will double in 16 years.\n[Haredi Judaism](https://www.britannica.com/topic/ultra-Orthodox-Judaism) is defined as a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions and customs. Child-rearing is encouraged in the Haredi community — a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children.\nWhat percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?\nThe most recent official [Central Bureau of Statistics](https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx) census or survey as of 1 January 2050 that estimates the percentage of the population that is Haredi will be consulted. If there is no such survey after 31 December 2046, then the most recent estimate by the [Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/) or a major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) will be consulted.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:10.555Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 67,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-22T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:16.006Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 184,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:21.260Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 275,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-30T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7492/sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then.\nThe speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. If at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months.\nSources: [https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim…](https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prime-minister-stefan-lofven-resigns/)\n[https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa…](https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefan-lofven-loses-no-confidence-motion/) (before the resignation)\nWill Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date.\nIn all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022).\nPre-votes (mail votes) may be sent beforehand, but for positive resolution there needs to be an actual \"voting day\" where physical voting locations are open to the public, before December 31. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.32,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:26.445Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 deaths will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 1,432 new confirmed+probable deaths were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:31.604Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 132,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson &amp; Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson &amp; Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson &amp; Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:36.765Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 89,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7514/taliban-capture-of-afghan-presidential-palace/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In April 2021, U.S. President Biden [announced a plan](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-september-11-d2c7426736f9f530e0e62f2295a44d28) to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September. As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/politics/biden-afghanistan-speech/index.html) indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by [31 August 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Afghanistan_(2020%E2%80%932021)). \nSince the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country.\nIn early July 2021, the Associated Press [reported Taliban advances](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-districts-ne-afghanistan-fleeing-troops-78658014) in several northern districts:\nThe Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday.\nLater the same month, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/half-all-afghan-district-centers-under-taliban-control-us-general-2021-07-21/) the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers:\nMilley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan.\nIt is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, [Kabul](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul) (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. \nIt is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's [22 districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul#Districts), so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of [ARG, the Presidential Palace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arg_(Kabul)), located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. \nWill the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?\nIf credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul at some point on or before September 11, 2026, this question resolves positively, otherwise negatively.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.4,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:42.250Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 157,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:48.051Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 344,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. On February 14th 2019, OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), which became famous within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.\nOn the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities.\nIf GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?\nThis question resolves on the date during which OpenAI staff publish a blog post, a paper, a video, or a document of any kind, describing GPT-4 or some performance results from GPT-4. In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\". If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nSee also these questions:\n[When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/)\n[Billions of params of GPT-4 if released](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:14:53.561Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 65,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.4,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:04.248Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 266,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.25,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.75,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:09.967Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 275,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.\nWill most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nFor the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand.\nThe question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.\nThe question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.13,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.87,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:15.315Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 106,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-08T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-03T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:20.574Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 46,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.92,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:25.865Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 382,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/",
@@ -55290,7 +53482,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:31.553Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:39.978Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55304,185 +53496,87 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/",
+    "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
+    "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.24,
+        "probability": 0.12,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.76,
+        "probability": 0.88,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:36.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:50.486Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 357,
+      "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/",
+    "title": "How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\n[Sir Keir Rodney Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer) KCB QC MP (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. He has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Ideologically, Starmer identifies as a socialist and has been described as being on the soft left within the Labour Party.\nWhen will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?\nThis question will resolve when Starmer either resigns from or is removed from the position of Leader of the Labour Party, or otherwise ceases to hold the office of Leader of the Labour Party. Resolution should cite a press release from the Labour Party, Keir Starmer, or credible press reports in the British media.\nThe resolution date will be the date his leadership actually ceases, rather than the date his resignation is announced, if the resignation does not take effect immediately.\n",
+    "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nHow many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?\nThis resolves as the number of papers published in 2022 on cultivated meat, according to [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&amp;year%5B1%5D=2021&amp;q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&amp;sort=relevance).\nThe relevant search query is the following (with no additional filters), [executable here](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&amp;year%5B1%5D=2021&amp;q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&amp;sort=relevance):\n((\"cultivated meat\" OR \"cultured meat\") OR (\"cell-based meat\" OR \"cell based meat\")) OR (\"cultured meat\" OR \"in vitro meat\")\nRunning this over the past few years, we get the following numbers:\n---2017: 37 \n---2018: 60 \n---2019: 85 \n---2020: 117 \nThe question resolves ambiguously if Semantic Scholar substantially changes its search application. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if, for the years 2017 to 2020, the relevant numbers differ by more than 80% relative to the numbers in the above list.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:42.453Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:13:55.661Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 83,
+      "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-10-31T22:02:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:02:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
+    "title": "How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7634/-va-eviction-cases-filed-in-q4-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.16,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.84,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:47.714Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 481,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with &gt; 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.73,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.27,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:53.606Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 569,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[The Guardian, 2021-07-04: Whole genome sequencing of all UK newborns ‘would have public support’](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/04/whole-genome-sequencing-of-all-uk-newborns-would-have-public-support)\nPlans to sequence the whole genome of every newborn in the UK in order to spot those at heightened risk of certain health conditions have been given a boost, with consultations suggesting the approach could have public support.\nThe potential for genomics to improve health was at the heart of the chief medical officer annual report of 2016, with a group of experts convened by Genomics England – a government-owned genetics service – subsequently recommending a research programme to sequence the whole genome of all newborns.\nThe United Kingdom (UK) already has a very large biobank of genetic data, called [the UK Biobank (UKBB)](https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/). It has data for about 500k people. However, it is based on microarray data, not sequencing.\nWhen will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?\n---There are credible reports (e.g., an academic paper or press release by a UK university) saying that 10 million genomes have been sequenced in biobanks. These biobanks need not be publicly owned or accessible, but their purpose must be research. 23andme-like consumer genomics companies do not count. \n---The data may not need to be in a single biobank. The numbers add up assuming the persons are non-overlapping. Positive resolution may thus come from one biobank with 1M and another with 9M. \n",
+    "description": "The nationwide eviction moratorium in the U.S. [expired](https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d6bfbe4aff82bbcf7586a3936ea98731) on 31 July, meaning [several thousand](https://www.nbc12.com/2021/07/29/thousands-virginians-could-face-eviction-after-federal-moratorium-ends-saturday-heres-how-get-va-rent-relief-money/) Virginians might soon face eviction. \nAccording to an [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/07/30/dcmdvaevictionprotection/) in the Washington Post, the situation in Virginia is as follows:\nIn Virginia, eviction protections were tied to the commonwealth’s state of emergency. Under that provision, landlords were required to tell delinquent tenants about rent relief programs and were not allowed to file evictions against tenants for nonpayment of rent unless the renter had refused to apply for relief money. According to Pidikiti-Smith, the state provision gave tenants a protective layer at the beginning of the process, forcing the landlord and tenant to work together for relief money. If that step failed, the CDC [nationwide] moratorium served as a backstop to removal. The Virginia protection, however, expired with the commonwealth’s state of emergency on June 30. Currently, landlords are required to provide a 14-day notice before filing an eviction, and tenants who can prove they lost income due to the pandemic can apply for a 60-day delay in the case.\nThe [RVA Eviction Lab](https://rampages.us/rvaevictionlab/) tracks eviction statistics in Virginia. Their 2021 second quarter [report](https://rampages.us/rvaevictionlab/wp-content/uploads/sites/33937/2021/07/RVAEL_2021-Q2-report_FINAL.pdf) states the following:\neviction filings, according to our current data, declined from 8,830 in the first quarter to 6,921 in the second quarter...these numbers likely do not capture the true scope of housing instability and evictions in the Commonwealth this past quarter, as they will likely shift upward with more up-to-date court reporting.\nHow many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?\nThis will resolve based on the number of eviction cases that are filed in the fourth quarter of 2021 according to the Q4 2022 RVA Eviction Lab quarterly report, which will be accessed [here](https://rampages.us/rvaevictionlab/) — the Q4 2022 report will be consulted since it is expected to contain more up-to-date court reporting for Q4 2021.\nIf the RVA Eviction Lab ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:15:58.909Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:00.829Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 26,
+      "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-09T22:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
+    "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity &gt;53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that &gt;53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\n2 August clarification: This question will resolve as the date when a credible media report stating that the &gt;53.3m immunity threshold has been reached is published, rather than the date when this threshold is reached.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when &gt;80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
+    "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as &lt;20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:04.276Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:06.035Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 514,
+      "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7493/date-uber-becomes-cheaper-in-bay-area/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "From [ABC 7 News](https://abc7news.com/rideshare-prices-demand-price-up-uber/10782862/),\nWe are days away from California's full reopening and in some areas of the economy we are already seeing major rebounds.\nDemand for rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft is rising and the riders are now seeing much more expensive rides.\nOut of Uber, Lyft, and taxis it used to be obvious on which one was cheaper but not anymore, as the demand for all three is rising. [...]\nExperts say some drivers have opted to do food delivery instead, others have found new jobs, and some continue to take unemployment instead of coming back. Not those like our friend Larry who says he sees the demand and is helping meet it.\nIt's up in the air as to how long we'll see higher rideshare prices, experts we talked with believe at least three months and in many cases up until unemployment benefits come to an end for some people.\nWhen will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?\nThis question resolves on the date during which [ride.guru](https://ride.guru/) first indicates that the price of an Uber X from 67 Centennial Dr, Berkeley, California 94704, United States to Dahlia Garden, Pompei Circle, San Francisco, California 94117, United States is less than $20. The date will be determined by the first credible archive of [this link](https://ride.guru/estimate/67%20Centennial%20Dr,%20Berkeley,%20California%2094704,%20United%20States/Dahlia%20Garden,%20Pompei%20Circle,%20San%20Francisco,%20California%2094117,%20United%20States#fare-comparison) posted in the comments of this question.\nThe [Uber Python SDK](https://developer.uber.com/docs/riders/ride-requests/tutorials/api/python) can be used to automatically find pricing data. See also [this Python project](https://pypi.org/project/uberfare/) which is a wrapper for the Uber Python SDK.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:09.539Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-13T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-04-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In [an effective altruist forum post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jsd5EGKCRnSspxEB8/a-proposal-for-a-small-inducement-prize-platform), I (Matthew Barnett) proposed a design for facilitating small inducement prizes. [Inducement prizes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inducement_prize_contest) are prizes awarded to individuals or teams for accomplishing some feat, specified ahead of time.\nDespite their long history, inducement prizes are currently much less popular than grants as a method for funding basic science. Yet, some economists have argued that they provide advantages over these traditional funding sources, as they can more efficiently solve the [principal agent problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem) for research.\nIf a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?\nFor the purpose of this question, assume that a public platform with the following characteristics is created at some point, and is announced on the Effective Altruist Forum. In order to count, the platform must,\n--- \nAllow users to pose an open research problem and provide a prize for anyone who can provide at least a partial solution to the problem.\n--- \nProvide a system of escrow and arbitration, mirroring the suggestion given in Matthew Barnett's EA Forum post. More specifically, the platform must offer (1) a means of holding inducement prize money in reserve, and disbursing the money to participants who satisfied the conditions specified in the inducement prize contest (2) a means of appointing a trusted arbitrator with the power to resolve disputes arising in regards to who is disbursed money and in what amounts.\nAssume that approximately one year after the launch of this platform is announced on the Effective Altruism Forum, the administrators of the platform reveal the total amount of prize money disbursed on the platform since the announcement. This question will then resolve as the number of US dollars disbursed as prizes, before fees and taxes, since the announcement of the platform on the Effective Altruist Forum.\nIn case some precursor to the platform is launched or announced, but does not include at least one of the necessary conditions outlined above, the platform is not said to have been launched yet. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:14.727Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 18,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-10T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -55494,7 +53588,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?\nThis question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.\nThe question resolves as &gt;2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:20.039Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:11.312Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 289,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55507,160 +53601,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.28,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.72,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:25.420Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 116,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.05,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.95,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:31.203Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 333,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:36.509Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 285,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7563/us-cases-for-2021-08-08-through-2021-08-14/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The United States is currently experiencing an uptick in new coronavirus infections, associated with the ascendancy of the Delta variant and the continued relaxation of controls. It is unclear whether or how quickly this uptick will develop into a significant wave of infections. The main COVID-19 forecasting consulted by the United States CDC [have diverged notably](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasts-cases.html) in their 4-week case forecasts. [According to](https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418313246847631360) former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, \"The wide divergence between these models suggests difficulty modeling this epidemic wave of delta, likely reflecting in part poor ascertainment of current cases, as well as diverging views on the durability of immunity, velocity and circumstances of spread, and contagiousness.\"\nHow many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?\nResolves as the sum of confirmed COVID-19 cases for the United States from 2021-08-08 through 2021-08-14 inclusive, according to the CDC. The resolution date is 10 days after August 14th to allow time for delayed reporting. If there is a significantly superior data source, Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use that source for resolution.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:41.785Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 164,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-24T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-08T03:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-08-24T21:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:47.154Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 179,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7619/va-12-15-yo-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In Virginia, younger age groups have recently made up a growing share of overall vaccinations — see slide 11 in the 28 July COVID Impact [report](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf). However, the overall number of new daily vaccinations has recently plateaued at a low of about [12k](​​https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/).\nAs of 30 July, [35.8%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) of the 12-15 age group in Virginia is fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.\nWhat percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?\nThis will resolve as the percentage of 12-15 year old Virginians who are fully vaccinated as of 1 October 2021. This value will be accessed on the “Percent of the Population Fully Vaccinated - By Age Group” chart on the [VDH “COVID-19 Vaccine Demographics” dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:52.326Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-10T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.\nIn March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).\nWhat will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:16:57.574Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:16.467Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 184,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55673,13 +53620,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:21.703Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 92,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T19:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7060/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-foods-in-2022/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods totalled $7 billion in 2020 ([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#category-sales)). This is up from around $5.5 billion in 2019.\nAmong the alternative protein markets, plant-based milk continues to hold the largest share with an estimated market value of [$2.5 billion in 2020](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/). Additionally, the plant-based meat market has grown very rapidly to a sizeable $1.4 billion. Dollar sales of plant-based meat grew 45 percent in the past year and 72 percent over the past two years.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $4.9b in 2018, $5.5b in 2019, and $7bn in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:09.101Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:27.025Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55693,80 +53659,61 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/",
+    "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use  autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimulus for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2026. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation (see fine-print).\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in 2022 USD, to be consistent with other questions. To adjust for inflation, we will be using [FRED data](/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \n",
+    "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.17,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.83,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:32.223Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 64,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into cultivated meat companies developing clean meat products in the US was [$77.1 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), with total investment between 2016 and 2019 standing at $166 million dollars. There are currently 125 independent investors in the industry, with 79% growth in the number of investors between 2018 and 2019. \nClosing [21 rounds in 2019](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), the largest round to date was Blue Nalu at $20 million dollars. With 58 completed rounds in total, this shows a large amount of growth and future opportunity for investment. With movements across the globe spurring the legalization of cultivated meat products in commercial settings, like [Eat Just's chicken nuggets in Singapore](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html), this industry could see rapid developments in product and profitability in the coming years.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling cultivated meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, cultivated meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, that is, in 2022 USD.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:14.335Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:37.388Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:20:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2027-06-30T21:20:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:43:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:43:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970. This growth is substantially faster than similar industrialized nations. Economists have pointed the blame at [various sources](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/080615/6-reasons-healthcare-so-expensive-us.asp), mostly pointing to rising prescription drug, device and test costs, rising compensation for doctors and nurses, and administrative waste.\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the percent value that the United States spends on healthcare, given as a fraction of GDP for the year 2035. Reliable sources used for resolution will be, in order of priority,\n---Some official cost estimate given by the US federal government \n---Some official cost estimate given by the OECD \n---A highly reputable study that estimates healthcare spending costs \nFor the purpose of this question, healthcare consists of those activities conducted by paid professionals in the treatment, prevention and cure of diseases, excluding personal trainers and those in unlicensed or pseudo-scientific professions. In case this definition is not specific enough, or indeed accurate according to general wisdom, admins should use their discretion in determining which cost estimate is best.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:19.580Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 33,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2036-03-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.6,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.4,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:25.050Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 150,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as &gt;. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:30.302Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:42.882Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55796,7 +53743,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:35.765Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:48.254Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55810,24 +53757,84 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/",
+    "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+    "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:41.176Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:53.987Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 67,
+      "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.75,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.25,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:14:59.204Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 134,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.43,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:04.524Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 41,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
@@ -55845,7 +53852,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:46.741Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:09.725Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 85,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55864,7 +53871,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $10 million to the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\" in 2020 and $56 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Criminal Justice Reform should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:51.992Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:14.867Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55877,6 +53884,1230 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.18,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:20.113Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 63,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across an all-knowing oracle that we can ask, what will it inform us is the next-closest origin of life to Earth's, with distances measured in km. A few salient potential values:\n---: Another independent origination on Earth \n---: on Mars or Venus \n---: a moon of Jupiter \n---: in the Oort cloud \n---: nearby stars \n---: typical star in our galaxy \n---: nearby galaxy \n---: Hubble distance, approximate size of observable universe \nHow far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?\nThis question will almost certainly not resolve, but is fun to ask as a way to assess the import of new evidence that may come in over time. But if it did, it would resolve by \na) computing the distance between Earth and each later independent origin of life at the time it arose, up until now, in cosmological time.\nb) computing the distance between Earth at the time life arose on it and the location (at that time) of each astronomical body on which life arose earlier.\nc) Taking the minimum of all of the above computed distances, in km.\nResolves ambiguous if life did not originate on Earth.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:25.311Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 51,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-23T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.83,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:30.721Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 214,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:36.030Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 103,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7569/peak-deaths-from--wave-worse-in-uk-or-us/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [Delta variant](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;pickerSort=desc&amp;pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&amp;Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&amp;Interval=7-day+rolling+average&amp;Relative+to+Population=true&amp;Align+outbreaks=false&amp;country=USA~GBR) is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the [UK and the US](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;pickerSort=desc&amp;pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&amp;Metric=Confirmed+cases&amp;Interval=7-day+rolling+average&amp;Relative+to+Population=true&amp;Align+outbreaks=false&amp;country=USA~GBR). The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline. \nThis question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print).\nWill the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?\nThis question resolves positively if the peak daily number of reported deaths per million from COVID in the UK, using a 7-day rolling average, between July 1, 2021 and the end of the Delta Wave (as defined in the fine print) is greater than the same for the US.\nAll data for resolving this question shall be drawn from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2021-07-01..latest&amp;pickerSort=desc&amp;pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&amp;Metric=Confirmed+deaths&amp;Interval=7-day+rolling+average&amp;Relative+to+Population=true&amp;Align+outbreaks=false&amp;country=USA~GBR).\nFor the purposes of this bet, we will define the beginning of the \"Delta Wave\" to have begun on July 1 for each country.\nThe Delta Wave of each respective country shall be deemed to end at the earliest of the following:\n1--The Delta variant (including any lineages descended from the Delta variant) no longer comprises the majority of cases in the country. \n2--The 7-day rolling average of reported daily deaths per million stays below 50% of a previously observed peak during the Delta Wave for 30 consecutive days. \n3--The end of the year 2021. \nNote that the Delta Wave of each country may end at different times, and the relevant comparison is between the maximum number of deaths in each country's respective Wave, even if the Waves end at different times. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.15,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.85,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:41.285Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 28,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T01:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.59,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:46.497Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 659,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:51.693Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 98,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 and 20. \nWith Polkadot being able to process well over 1000 transactions per second it's clearly possible for a smart contract platform to be able to process more transactions.\nEthereum plans to allow for more transactions with the adoption of Ethereum2.\nWhen will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?\nThis prediction will resolve positively when [https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transa…](https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transactions-per-second) shows Ethereum being able to handle 1000 or more transactions per second for 7 consecutive days.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:15:56.962Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 30,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthodox, or [Haredi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism), was 9% as of 2017, and is projected to grow to 29% by 2059. A 2020 [report by the Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimates that as of 2020 12% of Israel's population is Haredi (1,125,000) and projects that this proportion will double in 16 years.\n[Haredi Judaism](https://www.britannica.com/topic/ultra-Orthodox-Judaism) is defined as a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions and customs. Child-rearing is encouraged in the Haredi community — a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children.\nWhat percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?\nThe most recent official [Central Bureau of Statistics](https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx) census or survey as of 1 January 2050 that estimates the percentage of the population that is Haredi will be consulted. If there is no such survey after 31 December 2046, then the most recent estimate by the [Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/) or a major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) will be consulted.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:02.386Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 69,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-22T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:08.080Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 184,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [generative adversarial networks](https://medium.com/the-research-nest/generating-art-with-artificial-intelligence-powered-applications-276102955261) and [others](https://reposhub.com/python/deep-learning/lzhbrian-arbitrary-text-to-image-papers.html) may soon allow generating high-fidelity images of any desired content and style.\n[Weekly Shōnen Jump](https://www.viz.com/shonenjump) is a Japanese magazine that serializes ongoing manga series. It has by far the largest circulation of any manga magazine, and to draw a weekly manga published in Shōnen Jump is the pinnacle of achievement in the manga industry. Weekly manga chapters are typically about 16-20 pages long.\nWhen will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?\nThis question resolves at the time that Weekly Shōnen Jump publishes at least ten magazine pages of content, in the same issue, credited in any part to an artificial intelligence or other computer program. It does not matter whether the content's appearance was paid-for, or on what terms it appeared in the magazine. The resolution value will be the publication date. If the upper bound of the forecasting period passes without this occurring, the question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:13.305Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 36,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-30T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2033-06-01T03:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $25 million to the focus area \"Farmed Animal Welfare\" in 2020 and $40 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Farm Animal Welfare\" plus any additional focus areas aimed at helping animals. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Animal Welfare should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:18.818Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 17,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7241/taiwan-covid-predictions-june-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "On May 19th, [Taiwan imposed Level 3 restrictions across the entire country](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4206396).\nThis question tries to estimate whether or not those restrictions will reduce the spread of COVID in Taiwan.\nWhen will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3 to Level 2?\nThe data source used to resolve this question will be the [English version of the Taiwanese CDC website](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En). If an article is posted on the homepage announcing a reduction of restrictions in any area from Level 3 to a lower level, then the start date of the reduced restriction will be considered the answer.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:24.451Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 135,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T13:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.45,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.55,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:29.687Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 156,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:34.941Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 90,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at its peak?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7571/haredi-share-of-israel-at-peak/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/) asked for the Haredi proportion of Israel in 2050, and [was featured in Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-726).\n[Haredi Judaism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism) is a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions, and customs. Israel's Haredi community has over twice the national average birth rate; a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children, compared to the average of 3.09 for Israel as a whole in the same year. A [2020 IDI report](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimated that 12% of Israel's population is Haredi, and that this share will double in 16 years. [According to the Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/), Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics reported that 9% of the Israeli population was Haredi as of 2017 and projected that this proportion would grow to 29% by 2059.\nHow high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at the peak?\nThis question will resolve to the highest estimate of the Haredi population in Israel on any date before 1 January 2122, as published by one of the following sources before 1 January 2125:\n---The Central Bureau of Statistics \n---An estimate by the Israel Democracy Institute \n---A major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:40.186Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 57,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2113-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.33,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:45.437Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 205,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:50.726Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 344,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7514/taliban-capture-of-afghan-presidential-palace/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In April 2021, U.S. President Biden [announced a plan](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-september-11-d2c7426736f9f530e0e62f2295a44d28) to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September. As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/politics/biden-afghanistan-speech/index.html) indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by [31 August 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Afghanistan_(2020%E2%80%932021)). \nSince the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country.\nIn early July 2021, the Associated Press [reported Taliban advances](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-districts-ne-afghanistan-fleeing-troops-78658014) in several northern districts:\nThe Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday.\nLater the same month, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/half-all-afghan-district-centers-under-taliban-control-us-general-2021-07-21/) the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers:\nMilley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan.\nIt is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, [Kabul](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul) (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. \nIt is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's [22 districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul#Districts), so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of [ARG, the Presidential Palace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arg_(Kabul)), located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. \nWill the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?\nIf credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul at some point on or before September 11, 2026, this question resolves positively, otherwise negatively.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.4,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:16:55.968Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 171,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:01.152Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 146,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-02-20T22:01:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2048-01-19T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.04,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.96,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:06.286Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 29,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.69,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:11.716Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 106,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:16.973Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 276,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.7,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:22.218Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 197,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:27.462Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 141,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:32.642Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 184,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on India detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by India includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Indian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:37.798Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 34,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2035-01-01T17:51:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:52:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 deaths will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 1,432 new confirmed+probable deaths were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:43.022Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 132,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson &amp; Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson &amp; Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson &amp; Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:48.179Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 89,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in Q4 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7609/-virginians-in-leisurehospitality-q4-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In the first quarter of 2021, there [274.5k](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf) Virginians employed in leisure and hospitality services. \nAccording to the 1st Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators [report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf):\nAt 274,500 jobs, leisure and hospitality employment experienced an 8,000 job decrease (-2.8%) from the fourth quarter 2020 despite some relaxing of COVID dining and mass-gathering rules. The industry declined by 20.0% compared to the same period in 2020. Although restaurant workers are more numerous, entertainment and tourism work was hit hardest in over-the-year job loss in March nationwide. This includes jobs in: performing arts and spectator sports; amusements, gambling, and recreation; and museums and historical sites.During the pandemic, the Northern Virginia region greatly underperformed in the industry affected most by the pandemic, which could be attributed to the loss of business travel and tourism in the Washington, DC area. The large number of professionals working from home could have contributed as well. One consolation is that the Northern Virginia region is less reliant on restaurant and hotel jobs due its economy’s large size and industrial diversity.\nHow many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in Q4 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the 4th Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators report, which will be accessed [here](https://virginiaworks.com/Publications/Economic-Indicators).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:53.630Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.05,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.95,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:17:59.705Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 167,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\n[Sir Keir Rodney Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer) KCB QC MP (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. He has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Ideologically, Starmer identifies as a socialist and has been described as being on the soft left within the Labour Party.\nWhen will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?\nThis question will resolve when Starmer either resigns from or is removed from the position of Leader of the Labour Party, or otherwise ceases to hold the office of Leader of the Labour Party. Resolution should cite a press release from the Labour Party, Keir Starmer, or credible press reports in the British media.\nThe resolution date will be the date his leadership actually ceases, rather than the date his resignation is announced, if the resignation does not take effect immediately.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:05.009Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 83,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[The Guardian, 2021-07-04: Whole genome sequencing of all UK newborns ‘would have public support’](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/04/whole-genome-sequencing-of-all-uk-newborns-would-have-public-support)\nPlans to sequence the whole genome of every newborn in the UK in order to spot those at heightened risk of certain health conditions have been given a boost, with consultations suggesting the approach could have public support.\nThe potential for genomics to improve health was at the heart of the chief medical officer annual report of 2016, with a group of experts convened by Genomics England – a government-owned genetics service – subsequently recommending a research programme to sequence the whole genome of all newborns.\nThe United Kingdom (UK) already has a very large biobank of genetic data, called [the UK Biobank (UKBB)](https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/). It has data for about 500k people. However, it is based on microarray data, not sequencing.\nWhen will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?\n---There are credible reports (e.g., an academic paper or press release by a UK university) saying that 10 million genomes have been sequenced in biobanks. These biobanks need not be publicly owned or accessible, but their purpose must be research. 23andme-like consumer genomics companies do not count. \n---The data may not need to be in a single biobank. The numbers add up assuming the persons are non-overlapping. Positive resolution may thus come from one biobank with 1M and another with 9M. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:10.806Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 26,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-09T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with &gt; 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.75,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.25,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:16.061Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 571,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. On February 14th 2019, OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), which became famous within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.\nOn the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities.\nIf GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?\nThis question resolves on the date during which OpenAI staff publish a blog post, a paper, a video, or a document of any kind, describing GPT-4 or some performance results from GPT-4. In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\". If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nSee also these questions:\n[When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/)\n[Billions of params of GPT-4 if released](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:21.247Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 65,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7493/date-uber-becomes-cheaper-in-bay-area/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "From [ABC 7 News](https://abc7news.com/rideshare-prices-demand-price-up-uber/10782862/),\nWe are days away from California's full reopening and in some areas of the economy we are already seeing major rebounds.\nDemand for rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft is rising and the riders are now seeing much more expensive rides.\nOut of Uber, Lyft, and taxis it used to be obvious on which one was cheaper but not anymore, as the demand for all three is rising. [...]\nExperts say some drivers have opted to do food delivery instead, others have found new jobs, and some continue to take unemployment instead of coming back. Not those like our friend Larry who says he sees the demand and is helping meet it.\nIt's up in the air as to how long we'll see higher rideshare prices, experts we talked with believe at least three months and in many cases up until unemployment benefits come to an end for some people.\nWhen will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?\nThis question resolves on the date during which [ride.guru](https://ride.guru/) first indicates that the price of an Uber X from 67 Centennial Dr, Berkeley, California 94704, United States to Dahlia Garden, Pompei Circle, San Francisco, California 94117, United States is less than $20. The date will be determined by the first credible archive of [this link](https://ride.guru/estimate/67%20Centennial%20Dr,%20Berkeley,%20California%2094704,%20United%20States/Dahlia%20Garden,%20Pompei%20Circle,%20San%20Francisco,%20California%2094117,%20United%20States#fare-comparison) posted in the comments of this question.\nThe [Uber Python SDK](https://developer.uber.com/docs/riders/ride-requests/tutorials/api/python) can be used to automatically find pricing data. See also [this Python project](https://pypi.org/project/uberfare/) which is a wrapper for the Uber Python SDK.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:26.451Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-13T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.6,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.4,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:31.822Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 266,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In [an effective altruist forum post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jsd5EGKCRnSspxEB8/a-proposal-for-a-small-inducement-prize-platform), I (Matthew Barnett) proposed a design for facilitating small inducement prizes. [Inducement prizes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inducement_prize_contest) are prizes awarded to individuals or teams for accomplishing some feat, specified ahead of time.\nDespite their long history, inducement prizes are currently much less popular than grants as a method for funding basic science. Yet, some economists have argued that they provide advantages over these traditional funding sources, as they can more efficiently solve the [principal agent problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem) for research.\nIf a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?\nFor the purpose of this question, assume that a public platform with the following characteristics is created at some point, and is announced on the Effective Altruist Forum. In order to count, the platform must,\n--- \nAllow users to pose an open research problem and provide a prize for anyone who can provide at least a partial solution to the problem.\n--- \nProvide a system of escrow and arbitration, mirroring the suggestion given in Matthew Barnett's EA Forum post. More specifically, the platform must offer (1) a means of holding inducement prize money in reserve, and disbursing the money to participants who satisfied the conditions specified in the inducement prize contest (2) a means of appointing a trusted arbitrator with the power to resolve disputes arising in regards to who is disbursed money and in what amounts.\nAssume that approximately one year after the launch of this platform is announced on the Effective Altruism Forum, the administrators of the platform reveal the total amount of prize money disbursed on the platform since the announcement. This question will then resolve as the number of US dollars disbursed as prizes, before fees and taxes, since the announcement of the platform on the Effective Altruist Forum.\nIn case some precursor to the platform is launched or announced, but does not include at least one of the necessary conditions outlined above, the platform is not said to have been launched yet. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:37.063Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 18,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-10T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.25,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.75,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:42.279Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 275,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.16,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.84,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:47.486Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 481,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity &gt;53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that &gt;53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\n2 August clarification: This question will resolve as the date when a credible media report stating that the &gt;53.3m immunity threshold has been reached is published, rather than the date when this threshold is reached.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when &gt;80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:52.735Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 517,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will  United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:18:58.214Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 161,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.28,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.72,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:03.920Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 116,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_(Honduras)) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. \nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\nPróspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).\nWill Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?\nThis question resolves positively if Próspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Próspera do.\nIf Próspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.22,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.78,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:09.163Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 16,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimulus for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2026. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation (see fine-print).\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in 2022 USD, to be consistent with other questions. To adjust for inflation, we will be using [FRED data](/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:14.367Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 39,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:20:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2027-06-30T21:20:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970. This growth is substantially faster than similar industrialized nations. Economists have pointed the blame at [various sources](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/080615/6-reasons-healthcare-so-expensive-us.asp), mostly pointing to rising prescription drug, device and test costs, rising compensation for doctors and nurses, and administrative waste.\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the percent value that the United States spends on healthcare, given as a fraction of GDP for the year 2035. Reliable sources used for resolution will be, in order of priority,\n---Some official cost estimate given by the US federal government \n---Some official cost estimate given by the OECD \n---A highly reputable study that estimates healthcare spending costs \nFor the purpose of this question, healthcare consists of those activities conducted by paid professionals in the treatment, prevention and cure of diseases, excluding personal trainers and those in unlicensed or pseudo-scientific professions. In case this definition is not specific enough, or indeed accurate according to general wisdom, admins should use their discretion in determining which cost estimate is best.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:19.558Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 33,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2036-03-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:25.120Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 119,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:30.285Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 179,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.58,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:35.462Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 131,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:46.251Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 171,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturing plants are increasing their throughputs. For example, the UK-based [Plant-bean](https://plantandbean.com/) is planning on opening a new production facility with an initial capacity of [55,000 metric tons](https://thebeet.com/good-news-plant-based-meat-is-about-to-get-cheaper-thanks-to-this-company/) per year. However, this level of throughput is still about one-fourth as large as a typical cattle processing plants, which process typically around 20,000 heads per week ([Vahid et al., 2006](https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saeaso/35417.html))\nWhat will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces plant-based meat products.\nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the plant-based meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. The production process may involve any plant-based proteins, and any texturising procedure. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:51.453Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 41,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:12:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:13:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:19:56.592Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 47,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:01.777Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 161,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:06.971Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 67,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/",
@@ -55894,7 +55125,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:17:57.295Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:17.410Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 312,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -55907,85 +55138,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.32,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:02.524Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 759,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across an all-knowing oracle that we can ask, what will it inform us is the next-closest origin of life to Earth's, with distances measured in km. A few salient potential values:\n---: Another independent origination on Earth \n---: on Mars or Venus \n---: a moon of Jupiter \n---: in the Oort cloud \n---: nearby stars \n---: typical star in our galaxy \n---: nearby galaxy \n---: Hubble distance, approximate size of observable universe \nHow far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?\nThis question will almost certainly not resolve, but is fun to ask as a way to assess the import of new evidence that may come in over time. But if it did, it would resolve by \na) computing the distance between Earth and each later independent origin of life at the time it arose, up until now, in cosmological time.\nb) computing the distance between Earth at the time life arose on it and the location (at that time) of each astronomical body on which life arose earlier.\nc) Taking the minimum of all of the above computed distances, in km.\nResolves ambiguous if life did not originate on Earth.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:12.950Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 51,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-23T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7635/new-va-covid-state-of-emergency/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 [expired on 30 June 2021](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2021/june/headline-897920-en.html). As such, as of 1 July 2021 [“all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/executive-actions/). \nAccording to a Washington Post [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-maryland-virginia-officials-consider-lifting-states-of-emergency/2021/06/14/cb83757e-cd16-11eb-a7f1-52b8870bef7c_story.html), Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.”\nHowever, since then COVID-19 cases have risen [quickly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued.\nWill a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?\nThis will resolve positive if the governor of Virginia [announces](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/) a new State of Emergency in response to COVID-19 before 1 October 2021.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:18.148Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
@@ -56003,7 +55155,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:23.306Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:22.638Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56033,7 +55185,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:28.479Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:27.802Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56046,13 +55198,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.1,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:32.939Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 69,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:33.641Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:38.146Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56071,7 +55253,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:39.178Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:43.352Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56101,7 +55283,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:44.604Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:48.813Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56131,7 +55313,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:49.819Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:54.157Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 69,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56150,7 +55332,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:18:55.070Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:20:59.375Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 327,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56180,7 +55362,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:00.267Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:04.933Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 251,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56193,34 +55375,15 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:05.821Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 256,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7464/black-carbon-in-troposphere-after-nuclear-war/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Nuclear war has the potential to kill far more people via its climate effects than it does directly, and those climate effects are also typically seen as the most likely path by which nuclear war could cause an existential catastrophe. The size of these climate effects depends greatly on the amount of black carbon injected into the upper troposphere by the fires caused by nuclear strikes. This black carbon might ([or might not](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_debate)) then persist in the atmosphere and cause major cooling, agricultural shortfalls, and famine.\nThe amount of black carbon that would reach the upper troposphere depends on factors such as the number and yield of nuclear weapons used, the fuel densities of their targets, and whether firestorms would occur. These factor have been debated by various researchers, such as [Toon et al. (2007)](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/7/1973/2007/), [Reisner et al. (2018)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD027331), [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777), [Rodriguez (2019)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear), and [Coupe et al. (2019)](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Nuclear-Winter-Responses-to-Nuclear-War-Between-the-Coupe-Bardeen/560033106c2d599bcace3ce4cb6c67d5b713ec50).\nHow many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?\nThis question resolves as the number of teragrams of black carbon injected into the upper troposphere as the result of the next nuclear conflict. The number of teragrams will be measured as the median of estimates from studies that (a) cover the climatic effects from the next nuclear conflict, (b) are from peer-reviewed, reputable journals, and (c) are cited by relevant Wikipedia pages.\n[The troposphere](https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/atmosphere/troposphere) is here defined as: \"The bottom of the troposphere is at Earth's surface. The troposphere extends upward to about 10 km (6.2 miles or about 33,000 feet) above sea level. The height of the top of the troposphere varies with latitude (it is lowest over the poles and highest at the equator) and by season (it is lower in winter and higher in summer). It can be as high as 20 km (12 miles or 65,000 feet) near the equator, and as low as 7 km (4 miles or 23,000 feet) over the poles in winter.\"\n[The upper troposphere](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011RG000355) is a coupling layer in the atmosphere. It can be broadly defined as the region ±5 km around the tropopause, the traditional boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if, by 2050, no nuclear war has occurred or there are no studies done that estimate the amount of black carbon injected into the troposphere after nuclear conflict. If studies are performed but their results do not lead to clear resolution, a resolution council or Metaculus admins will be consulted to determine proper resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:11.036Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:10.254Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 57,
+      "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56237,7 +55400,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently comes from [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/), a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder [Dustin Moskovitz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Moskovitz) and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$21.9bn](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=1d9ff1161dd3) as of June 2021. They donated $271 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) and $298 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their grants database. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose total grants for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:16.361Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:15.439Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56267,7 +55430,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:26.715Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:25.812Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56280,66 +55443,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.1,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:32.532Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 68,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.83,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:37.865Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 214,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
@@ -56357,9 +55460,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:43.204Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:31.266Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 5311,
+      "numforecasts": 5313,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56370,62 +55473,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:48.417Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 103,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.59,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:53.701Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 659,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7396/ea-forum-value-drift-2026/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) is a centre of discussion for the Effective Altruism community. Users posts and comments are subject to upvotes and downvotes, and users with well received content accumulate [karma](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/about#Karma)\nThey formerly had a karma leaderboard but it was discontinued. Currently Issa Rice maintains a karma leaderboard [here](https://eaforum.issarice.com/userlist?sort=karma). The karma leaderboard ranking of users as of June 2021 can be found in the fine print as well as in [this Google Sheet with user IDs](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19fT-ZUlVRZUJ9DxTPvRJoE-gfTAaEHFfXhN_TDa_ARs/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question asks how many of the current top 50 users by karma as of June 15 2021 (see fine print for list of usernames) will have at least 1 post or 5 comments in the calendar year 2026, conditional on the EA Forum still existing. For reference, as of June 15 2021, all of the top 50 users meet this criteria for the preceding 12 months.\nHow many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?\nThis question resolves to the number of the top 50 EA forum users as of June 15 2021 who make at least one post or five comments in the calendar year 2026, conditional on the forum having any posts in that year.\nThe list of users this question should resolve based on:\naarongertler, michaela, peter_wildeford, habryka, khorton, larks, pablo_stafforini, linch, max_daniel, julia_wise, benjamin_todd, halstead, jonas-vollmer, michelle_hutchinson, ryancarey, milan_griffes, michaelstjules, buck, gregory_lewis, saulius, carl_shulman, robert_wiblin, william_macaskill, michaelplant, willbradshaw, denise_melchin, richard_ngo, owen_cotton-barratt, david_moss, edoarad, ben_west, wei_dai, oagr, kbog, michaeldickens, nunosempere, john_maxwell, joey, davidnash, stefan_schubert, cullen_okeefe, briantan, weeatquince, haukehillebrandt, jason-schukraft, ben_kuhn, agb, jeff_kaufman, alexrjl, jpaddison\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:19:59.228Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:36.426Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 18,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56438,51 +55492,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 and 20. \nWith Polkadot being able to process well over 1000 transactions per second it's clearly possible for a smart contract platform to be able to process more transactions.\nEthereum plans to allow for more transactions with the adoption of Ethereum2.\nWhen will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?\nThis prediction will resolve positively when [https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transa…](https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transactions-per-second) shows Ethereum being able to handle 1000 or more transactions per second for 7 consecutive days.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:05.197Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 30,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [generative adversarial networks](https://medium.com/the-research-nest/generating-art-with-artificial-intelligence-powered-applications-276102955261) and [others](https://reposhub.com/python/deep-learning/lzhbrian-arbitrary-text-to-image-papers.html) may soon allow generating high-fidelity images of any desired content and style.\n[Weekly Shōnen Jump](https://www.viz.com/shonenjump) is a Japanese magazine that serializes ongoing manga series. It has by far the largest circulation of any manga magazine, and to draw a weekly manga published in Shōnen Jump is the pinnacle of achievement in the manga industry. Weekly manga chapters are typically about 16-20 pages long.\nWhen will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?\nThis question resolves at the time that Weekly Shōnen Jump publishes at least ten magazine pages of content, in the same issue, credited in any part to an artificial intelligence or other computer program. It does not matter whether the content's appearance was paid-for, or on what terms it appeared in the magazine. The resolution value will be the publication date. If the upper bound of the forecasting period passes without this occurring, the question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:10.440Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 36,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-30T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2033-06-01T03:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nBetween 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). \nMovements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.\nHow many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:15.873Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:41.582Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56495,34 +55511,15 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $25 million to the focus area \"Farmed Animal Welfare\" in 2020 and $40 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Farm Animal Welfare\" plus any additional focus areas aimed at helping animals. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Animal Welfare should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:21.446Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 17,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7348/total-retail-sales-july-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for July 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:26.605Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:46.782Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 102,
+      "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56539,9 +55536,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows:\nHow high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:31.787Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:51.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 17,
+      "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56552,25 +55549,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these measures will be in preventing another crisis or mitigating its effects once one takes place.\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"great financial crisis\" is defined by reference to the weekly [Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2) of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is constructed by extracting the component of principal variation from 18 different indicators of the state of financial markets using principal component analysis and is designed to serve as an overall measure of stress in financial markets. A \"great financial crisis\" is a crisis that's comparable to the crisis of 2008 by this metric.\nWhen will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?\nThe question resolves to the Friday of the earliest week after the opening date of the question for which the latest version of the Financial Stress Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (which is currently SLTFSI2 but might change in the future if further revisions are made to the index by the St. Louis Fed) exceeds its value for the week ending on October 3rd 2008. This value is currently 7.0144, but may be updated if FRED updates the index. If this event doesn't occur until the closing date of the question. the question resolves as &gt;2100. If the index is discontinued altogether, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:36.970Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 41,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/",
@@ -56588,7 +55566,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:42.193Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:21:57.178Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56607,7 +55585,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.\n“Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.\nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:47.350Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:02.364Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56620,169 +55598,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&amp;P 500 correction?\nThe S&amp;P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:52.494Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 103,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:20:57.749Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 149,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7136/7-day-avg-of-1-october-covid-tests-in-va/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this fall — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases.\nOn 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 October 2021 on the VDH [SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-testing/).\nIf the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as &gt;40k\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:03.439Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 216,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-02T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Pre-implantation genetic diagnosis](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis) (PGD) is a technique that allows for the genetic profiling of embryos prior to their implantation as part of an [in vitro fertilization](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) procedure. This is typically done to minimize the risk of miscarriage and of genetic or chromosomal diseases.\nSince [the first successful](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199209243271301) use of PGD in 1989, many people have been subject to this procedure for non-genomic traits (like aneuploidies) or traits with well-established causal paths (like monogenic diseases). For example, in 2008 it was estimated that [4%-6% of IVFs](http://(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2007.05.048)) in the US included a PGD step. In 2020, [the first tests for highly polygenic traits on human embryos](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2019.00845/full) were carried out in a clinical setting.\n[Orchid Health](https://www.orchidhealth.com/) is the first company offering PGD for highly polygenic diseases (like type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia) commercially to any parents who want it as part of a standard IVF procedure. This has raised [technical](https://twitter.com/GENES_PK/status/1380553618777063427) and [ethical](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/21/1023268/genetic-disease-chances-orchid-embryo-testing-ivf/) concerns.\nWhen will the first baby screened for polygenic traits by Orchid Health be born?\nThis question shall resolve according to a press release from Orchid Health or credible media reports.\nThe baby must have been screened for at least one trait for which the risk is estimated using a [polygenic risk score](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Polygenic_score).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:08.626Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 59,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7430/china-demographic-dependency/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows: \nHow high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:13.816Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 14,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T21:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7607/-va-covid-deaths-in-va-lctfs/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "According to the U.S. CDC, [long-term care facilities (LCTFs)](https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html) are nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities that provide care to people unable to live independently. \nAs of 30 July 2021, there have been [4,265](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Virginian LCTFs, which represents ~37% of the total [11,532](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/) confirmed deaths in Virginia as of this date.\nThere is a need to know whether deaths in Virginian LCTFs will continue to make up a substantial proportion of overall COVID-19 deaths going forward. Recent survey data indicates [90.6%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/A-Descriptive-Analysis-COVID-19-Vaccine-Uptake-in-Long-term-Care-Facilities-of-Virginia-March-2021-1.pdf) of LCTF residents have received at least one vaccine dose.\nWhat percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur in LCTFs as of 1 August 2022. Only new deaths that are reported after 30 July 2021 will be considered for this question. The cumulative totals as of 30 July 2021 (4,265 deaths in LCTFs and 11,532 total deaths) will be subtracted from the cumulative totals as of 1 August 2022 for resolution and then divided (LCTF COVID deaths/all COVID deaths). \nAs of 30 July 2021, [4,265](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Virginian LCTFs — see the deaths figure for “Long Term Care Facilities” under “Cases and Deaths by Outbreak Facility Type - State Totals” on the [VDH Outbreaks page](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/). As of 30 July 2021, [11,532](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/) COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Virginia — see the “total deaths” figure on the [VDH summary dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/).\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:19.057Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 17,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the James Webb telescope be launched?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7298/james-webb-telescope-launch-date/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/)\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope),\nDevelopment began in 1996 for a launch that was initially planned for 2007 and a 500-million-dollar budget, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns, and underwent a major redesign in 2005. The JWST's construction was completed in late 2016, after which its extensive testing phase began. In March 2018, NASA further delayed the launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment. Launch was delayed again in June 2018 following recommendations from an independent review board. Work on integration and testing of the telescope was suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adding further delays. Work has resumed, but NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to October 31, 2021.\n[Now](https://www.engadget.com/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-launch-delay-181128125.html),\nNASA had been working toward an October 31st launch date for the James Webb Space Telescope, but it's having to delay the science observatory's trip into space once again. Thankfully, the launch might take place just a few weeks later, in November or early December. A rescheduled date is unlikely to be confirmed until later this summer or perhaps in the fall.\nXKCD [provided an extrapolated launch date of around 2026](https://xkcd.com/2014/), given previous launch delays.\nWhen will the James Webb telescope be launched?\nThis question resolves on the date during which the first component of the James Webb telescope is first launched upwards towards (whether or not the telescope functions as intended, or indeed even lasts more than one second after launch without blowing up), as described by reliable media.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:29.430Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 102,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-04T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:40.255Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 60,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/",
@@ -56800,7 +55615,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:51.325Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:07.558Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 135,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56814,19 +55629,144 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
+    "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
+    "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&amp;P 500 correction?\nThe S&amp;P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:21:56.657Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:12.996Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 184,
+      "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Pre-implantation genetic diagnosis](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis) (PGD) is a technique that allows for the genetic profiling of embryos prior to their implantation as part of an [in vitro fertilization](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) procedure. This is typically done to minimize the risk of miscarriage and of genetic or chromosomal diseases.\nSince [the first successful](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199209243271301) use of PGD in 1989, many people have been subject to this procedure for non-genomic traits (like aneuploidies) or traits with well-established causal paths (like monogenic diseases). For example, in 2008 it was estimated that [4%-6% of IVFs](http://(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2007.05.048)) in the US included a PGD step. In 2020, [the first tests for highly polygenic traits on human embryos](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2019.00845/full) were carried out in a clinical setting.\n[Orchid Health](https://www.orchidhealth.com/) is the first company offering PGD for highly polygenic diseases (like type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia) commercially to any parents who want it as part of a standard IVF procedure. This has raised [technical](https://twitter.com/GENES_PK/status/1380553618777063427) and [ethical](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/21/1023268/genetic-disease-chances-orchid-embryo-testing-ivf/) concerns.\nWhen will the first baby screened for polygenic traits by Orchid Health be born?\nThis question shall resolve according to a press release from Orchid Health or credible media reports.\nThe baby must have been screened for at least one trait for which the risk is estimated using a [polygenic risk score](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Polygenic_score).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:18.224Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 59,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7430/china-demographic-dependency/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows: \nHow high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:23.667Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the James Webb telescope be launched?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7298/james-webb-telescope-launch-date/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/)\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope),\nDevelopment began in 1996 for a launch that was initially planned for 2007 and a 500-million-dollar budget, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns, and underwent a major redesign in 2005. The JWST's construction was completed in late 2016, after which its extensive testing phase began. In March 2018, NASA further delayed the launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment. Launch was delayed again in June 2018 following recommendations from an independent review board. Work on integration and testing of the telescope was suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adding further delays. Work has resumed, but NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to October 31, 2021.\n[Now](https://www.engadget.com/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-launch-delay-181128125.html),\nNASA had been working toward an October 31st launch date for the James Webb Space Telescope, but it's having to delay the science observatory's trip into space once again. Thankfully, the launch might take place just a few weeks later, in November or early December. A rescheduled date is unlikely to be confirmed until later this summer or perhaps in the fall.\nXKCD [provided an extrapolated launch date of around 2026](https://xkcd.com/2014/), given previous launch delays.\nWhen will the James Webb telescope be launched?\nThis question resolves on the date during which the first component of the James Webb telescope is first launched upwards towards (whether or not the telescope functions as intended, or indeed even lasts more than one second after launch without blowing up), as described by reliable media.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:29.413Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 119,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-04T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:34.589Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 64,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.15,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.85,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:45.295Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 68,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nWhat will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the peak in “Weekly CLI Visits (Count)” in the [“ED Visits for COVID-Like Illness (CLI)” VDH graph](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/). The week ending 7 August 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 July 2022 is the last week covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7605/date-of-pre-aug-2022-va-cli-visits-peak/) related question on when the peak will be.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:50.450Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 14,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -56838,9 +55778,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There are currently [three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) under [Emergency Use Authorizations](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) (EUAs) in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine. As of 30 July 2021, no SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are fully approved under [Biologics Use Authorizations](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/biologics-license-applications-bla-process-cber) (BLA).\n[According](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2021/06/15/whats-the-difference-between-vaccine-approval-bla-and-authorization-eua/) to Harvard’s Petrie-Flom Center, an EUA differs from BLA in the following way: \nan EUA is “an authorization to distribute an otherwise unapproved product (or an approved product for an unapproved use) during an emergency formally declared by the Secretary of Health &amp; Human Services,” while a BLA is “FDA’s standard ‘full approval’ mechanism for biological products, including therapeutics and vaccines. A company seeking a BLA for its product must demonstrate that the product is ‘safe, pure, and potent,’ which generally means completing robust, well-controlled clinical trials.”\nBoth Pfizer and Moderna have [submitted applications](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/when-will-the-fda-give-full-approval-for-covid-19-vaccines) to the FDA for full BLA approval — Pfizer submitted its application on 7 May 2021 and Moderna did so on 1 June 2021. The FDA says it makes a decision on full approval [within 6 months](https://www.fda.gov/media/78941/download) of application submission.\nOn 30 July, STAT News [reported](https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/30/fda-under-pressure-plans-sprint-to-accelerate-review-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-for-full-approval/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&amp;utm_campaign=d75d934241-Daily_Recap&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-d75d934241-152034961) that “the Food and Drug Administration center that reviews vaccines is planning to deprioritize some of its existing work, like meetings with drug sponsors and plant inspections, in an effort to accelerate its review of Pfizer’s application for the formal approval of its Covid-19 vaccinea senior agency official told STAT … Now, the senior agency official said, the agency will initiate a ‘sprint.’”\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine receive full BLA approval by the U.S. FDA?\nResolution will be determined by the date of the first [FDA press release](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) announcing the full BLA approval of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.\nIf this does not occur before 31 January 2022, then this resolves as &gt; 31 January 2022.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:01.834Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:22:55.582Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 22,
+      "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56857,7 +55797,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of June 2021, there have only been two recorded offensive nuclear weapon detonations. Occurring in 1945 shortly before the end of World War II, the [US dropped two atomic bombs on the cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20detonated%20two,nuclear%20weapons%20in%20armed%20conflict.). These attacks would be considered [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) because of their direct targeting of non-military and/or non-industrial targets. \nNuclear weapons have never yet been used against battlefield targets. There is controversy over how likely it is that states would ever use nuclear weapons in this way and, especially, over whether nuclear weapons could be used in this way without the conflict then escalating to nuclear strikes on non-battlefield targets.\nWhat fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?\nThis question resolves as the proportion between 0 and 1 of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 (1-1-50) that are targeted on battlefield targets, rather than [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) or [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets. This question will resolve ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict. If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea. \nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) nor accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will count as an \"offensive nuclear detonation\", even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by state or non-state actors can both count towards a positive resolution of this question.\nResolution criteria will come from reliable news reports or battlefield reports.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:07.234Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:00.774Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -56870,25 +55810,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7606/attendance-at-2021-uva-vs-virginia-tech-game/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The 2021 NCAA football game between the University of Virginia’s Cavaliers and Virginia Tech’s Hokies is scheduled for [27 November 2021](https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/258) at [Scott Stadium in Charlottesville Virginia](https://virginiasports.com/news/2021/01/28/virginia-announces-2021-football-schedule/), which has a capacity of [61.5k](https://www.visitcharlottesville.org/listing/scott-stadium/2487/). \nThe attendance at the 2020 game between University of Virginia and Virginia Tech was [250](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Virginia_Cavaliers_football_team), and for 2019 was [52,619](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Virginia_Cavaliers_football_team).\nWhat will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the [attendance figure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Virginia_Cavaliers_football_team) for the 27 November game against Virginia Tech.\nIf the football game is rescheduled, the attendance will still be measured for the purpose of resolving this question. If the football game is cancelled, this will resolve ambiguous. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:12.545Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/",
@@ -56906,9 +55827,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:17.831Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:06.849Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 1224,
+      "numforecasts": 1226,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56919,15 +55840,34 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7606/attendance-at-2021-uva-vs-virginia-tech-game/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The 2021 NCAA football game between the University of Virginia’s Cavaliers and Virginia Tech’s Hokies is scheduled for [27 November 2021](https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/258) at [Scott Stadium in Charlottesville Virginia](https://virginiasports.com/news/2021/01/28/virginia-announces-2021-football-schedule/), which has a capacity of [61.5k](https://www.visitcharlottesville.org/listing/scott-stadium/2487/). \nThe attendance at the 2020 game between University of Virginia and Virginia Tech was [250](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Virginia_Cavaliers_football_team), and for 2019 was [52,619](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Virginia_Cavaliers_football_team).\nWhat will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the [attendance figure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Virginia_Cavaliers_football_team) for the 27 November game against Virginia Tech.\nIf the football game is rescheduled, the attendance will still be measured for the purpose of resolving this question. If the football game is cancelled, this will resolve ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:12.038Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7361/eia-crude-oil-stock-august-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\nCrude oil, gas, and petroleum remain [linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do [impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nWhat will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of August in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/eia-crude-oil-stocks-change). This will include the reporting dates for 4-August, 11-August, 18-August, 25-August.\nFor reference, a [previous report](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf) released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:23.398Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:17.208Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 89,
+      "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -56938,44 +55878,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:28.634Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 90,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at its peak?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7571/haredi-share-of-israel-at-peak/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/) asked for the Haredi proportion of Israel in 2050, and [was featured in Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-726).\n[Haredi Judaism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism) is a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions, and customs. Israel's Haredi community has over twice the national average birth rate; a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children, compared to the average of 3.09 for Israel as a whole in the same year. A [2020 IDI report](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimated that 12% of Israel's population is Haredi, and that this share will double in 16 years. [According to the Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/), Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics reported that 9% of the Israeli population was Haredi as of 2017 and projected that this proportion would grow to 29% by 2059.\nHow high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at the peak?\nThis question will resolve to the highest estimate of the Haredi population in Israel on any date before 1 January 2122, as published by one of the following sources before 1 January 2125:\n---The Central Bureau of Statistics \n---An estimate by the Israel Democracy Institute \n---A major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:33.821Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 57,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2113-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
@@ -56993,7 +55895,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:39.087Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:23.202Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 605,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57012,7 +55914,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:45.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:28.658Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 104,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57025,64 +55927,15 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.96,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:50.599Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 29,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7628/-va-4-yr-colleges-requiring-covid-vaccine/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "There are a total of [15](https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/virginia/public-four-year-colleges/) public four-year institutions in Virginia. They are as follows:\nChristopher Newport University, George Mason University, James Madison University, Longwood University, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Mary Washington, University of Virginia, UVA’s College at Wise, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Tech, Virginia State University, William &amp; Mary.\nAccording to [The Chronicle of Higher Education](https://www.chronicle.com/blogs/live-coronavirus-updates/heres-a-list-of-colleges-that-will-require-students-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19), as of 30 July there are 13 of Virginia’s 15 public four-year institutions that are requiring that students get COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year. They are:\nChristopher Newport University, George Mason University, James Madison University, Longwood University, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Mary Washington, University of Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (“Virginia Tech’), William &amp; Mary. \nThis means that as of 30 July, UVA’s College at Wise and Virginia State University are not requiring that students get COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year.\nHow many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the latest update of the list compiled by [The Chronicle of Higher Education](https://www.chronicle.com/blogs/live-coronavirus-updates/heres-a-list-of-colleges-that-will-require-students-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19) of Virginia’s four-year colleges requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year.\nIf The Chronicle of Higher Education has not updated its list of colleges requiring COVID-19 vaccinations at least once within the two weeks prior to resolution, then a best attempt will be made to resolve this on the basis of each university’s vaccination policy as stated on their websites. Colleges that use language like \"must,\" \"required,\" or \"mandate\" in reference to vaccinations for students will be considered to require a COVID vaccine, even if exceptions are made for those who request medical or religious exemptions. For those who do request medical or religious exemptions, regular COVID testing should be required.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:22:55.858Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 19,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-10T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:\n1-- \nThe US government\n2-- \nSpaceX\n3-- \nAnother government\n4-- \nAnother corporation or private organization\n5-- \nOther (somehow)\nAlthough Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the \"weight\" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.\nResolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.\nCloses retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:01.293Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:33.888Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 276,
+      "numforecasts": 277,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-10-14T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57093,73 +55946,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.37,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.63,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:06.545Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 24,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.7,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:11.854Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 197,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:24.266Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:39.091Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 132,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57172,191 +55965,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:29.695Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 150,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on India detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by India includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Indian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:35.027Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 34,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2035-01-01T17:51:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:52:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:40.257Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 141,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:45.568Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 64,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7643/andrew-cuomo-still-ny-governor-on-2021-12-31/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by [multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cuomo_sexual_harassment_allegations) since December 2020.\nAn independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/28/cuomo-agrees-to-independent-probe-of-sexual-harassment-allegations.html) on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and [found](https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.08.03_nyag_-_investigative_report.pdf) the following:\nWe...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment.\nFollowing the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats [called on Cuomo to resign](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566131-democrats-renew-calls-for-cuomo-to-resign-over-harassment-findings), but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo [appeared to decline to resign](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-investigation-sexual-harassment-04b0e7ba80db368124a5e9c9bcf4dc0d). Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly [impeachment inquiry](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/12/976342887/new-york-state-assembly-speaker-authorizes-impeachment-inquiry-into-governor-cuo).\nWill Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on 31 December 2021 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/) previous question by user johnnycaffeine.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.3,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:50.966Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 86,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T18:30:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.44,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.56,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:23:56.225Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 47,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7241/taiwan-covid-predictions-june-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "On May 19th, [Taiwan imposed Level 3 restrictions across the entire country](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4206396).\nThis question tries to estimate whether or not those restrictions will reduce the spread of COVID in Taiwan.\nWhen will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3 to Level 2?\nThe data source used to resolve this question will be the [English version of the Taiwanese CDC website](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En). If an article is posted on the homepage announcing a reduction of restrictions in any area from Level 3 to a lower level, then the start date of the reduced restriction will be considered the answer.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:01.698Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 132,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T13:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:07.682Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 548,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
@@ -57374,7 +55982,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:13.037Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:44.283Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 593,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57387,34 +55995,15 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7367/total-retail-sales-september-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for September 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:18.336Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-07T01:23:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-21T01:24:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7383/peru-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The Republic of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru) is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south and west by the Pacific Ocean. Peru is a megadiverse country with habitats ranging from the arid plains of the Pacific coastal region in the west to the peaks of the Andes mountains extending from the north to the southeast of the country to the tropical Amazon Basin rainforest in the east with the Amazon river. At 1.28 million square kilometres, Peru is the 19th-largest country in the world, and the third-largest in South America. Peru has a [population of approximately 33 million](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/peru-population/) as of 2021.\n[The economy of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Peru) is the 47th-largest in the world (ranked by Purchasing Power Parity), and the income level is classified as upper middle by the World Bank.\nIn June 2021, Peru [narrowly elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-socialists-cheer-election-win-conservatives-pledge-fight-2021-06-13/?taid=60c66d2935ede90001f5fc12&amp;utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter) [Pedro Castillo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Castillo) as President. Castillo is associated with the left-wing [Free Peru National Political Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Peru). The party describes itself as being \"a left-wing socialist organization\" that embraces Marxism–Leninism and Mariáteguism. It values democracy, decentralization, internationalism, sovereignty, humanism and anti-imperialism. Following his success in the first round of presidential elections in 2021, Pedro Castillo has said that he opposes communism, and has distanced himself from far-leftists in the party. Castillo has also [said that he will not seek to nationalize companies and will honour the rule of law, and will reject the policies of Chavismo.](https://www.reuters.com/world/no-chavismo-here-peru-socialist-candidate-castillo-seeks-calm-jittery-markets-2021-04-22/)\nPeru's [GDP per capita (PPP) in current international dollars](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=PE) for the year 2019 was estimated as $13,416 by the World Bank.\nWhat will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030?\nThis question resolves as [Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) in current international dollars](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=PE) as reported by the World Bank for the year 2030. If World Bank figures are unavailable, figures from the United Nations or International Monetary Fund are also acceptable. If none of these organizations produce an estimate of Peru's PPP GDP per capita for 2030, administrators shall select a credible estimate. If no credible estimates are available, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:28.729Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:49.459Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 74,
+      "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57425,13 +56014,122 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.44,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.56,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:23:54.772Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 47,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.15,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.85,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:00.261Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 548,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.\nWill the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?\nThe question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.56,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:05.960Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-05-24T19:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7367/total-retail-sales-september-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for September 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:11.399Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 43,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-07T01:23:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-21T01:24:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Previous questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) [resolved: no] \n---[When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/) [closed in 2021] \nConjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question will resolve on the date a proof that is mostly correct is published which demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the day before the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. In the event that the conjecture is proven to be [undecidable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undecidable_problem) or [independent of ZFC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%E2%80%93Fraenkel_set_theory#Independence), the question will also resolve on the date of such proof.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:33.900Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:16.549Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57450,9 +56148,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=total&amp;yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nHow much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period, in USD?\nThis question resolves as the yearly average of the total of the value of the livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs in 2021 and 2022, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock). Values are to be given in nominal USD.\nFigures for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:39.087Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:22.214Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 55,
+      "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57463,44 +56161,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will  United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:44.293Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 161,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in Q4 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7609/-virginians-in-leisurehospitality-q4-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In the first quarter of 2021, there [274.5k](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf) Virginians employed in leisure and hospitality services. \nAccording to the 1st Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators [report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf):\nAt 274,500 jobs, leisure and hospitality employment experienced an 8,000 job decrease (-2.8%) from the fourth quarter 2020 despite some relaxing of COVID dining and mass-gathering rules. The industry declined by 20.0% compared to the same period in 2020. Although restaurant workers are more numerous, entertainment and tourism work was hit hardest in over-the-year job loss in March nationwide. This includes jobs in: performing arts and spectator sports; amusements, gambling, and recreation; and museums and historical sites.During the pandemic, the Northern Virginia region greatly underperformed in the industry affected most by the pandemic, which could be attributed to the loss of business travel and tourism in the Washington, DC area. The large number of professionals working from home could have contributed as well. One consolation is that the Northern Virginia region is less reliant on restaurant and hotel jobs due its economy’s large size and industrial diversity.\nHow many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in Q4 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the 4th Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators report, which will be accessed [here](https://virginiaworks.com/Publications/Economic-Indicators).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:49.773Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
@@ -57518,9 +56178,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:24:55.066Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:27.384Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 161,
+      "numforecasts": 162,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57531,73 +56191,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.49,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.51,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:00.298Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 16,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.05,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.95,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:05.585Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 167,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&amp;%2AVersion%2A=1&amp;%2Aentries%2A=0&amp;ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \"&gt;2041-01-01\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:10.914Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:32.638Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 308,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57616,7 +56216,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:16.174Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:37.934Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57646,7 +56246,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:21.367Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:43.170Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57659,36 +56259,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nJohnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.\nAs of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and [the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307)\nThe spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\".\nThe PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\".\nMr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.\nAs of late April 2021, [Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021), a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021.\nWill Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.95,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:26.671Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 188,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
@@ -57706,7 +56276,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:31.865Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:48.372Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 176,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57725,7 +56295,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Deutsche Welt (German World) English version wrote on 2019-11-04](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-in-20-years-1-in-3-people-will-have-migrant-roots/a-51101172):\nGermany: In 20 years, 1 in 3 people will have migrant roots By 2040, about 35% of Germany's population will have a migrant background or be a migrant themselves, according to a German migration expert.\nHerbert Brücker, who heads the migration research department at the Federal Institute for Employment Research (IAB), told the Welt daily on Monday that Germany \"will become more diverse.\"\n\"Currently, about a quarter of the people in German have a migrant background,\" Brücker said. \"In 20 years, it will be at least 35%, but could also be more than 40%.\"\nHe noted that in cities, that figure is likely to be higher. \"What we see in the big cities today will be normal for the country as a whole in the future,\" Brücker said. \"In a city like Frankfurt, we'll have between 65% to 70%.\"\nWhich fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040?\n---Population data for 2040 from a suitable German government website [such as destatis](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Migration-Integration/_node.html). \n---Note that migration background currently means persons with at least one parent born outside of Germany. It is possible this definition will change in the future to include grandparents, [see this article](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1468796819833437). This question resolves based on the definition the government uses at the time. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:37.065Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:53.546Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57738,36 +56308,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_(Honduras)) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. \nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\nPróspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).\nWill Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?\nThis question resolves positively if Próspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Próspera do.\nIf Próspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.22,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.78,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:42.257Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 15,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -57785,7 +56325,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:47.497Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:24:58.727Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 86,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57804,9 +56344,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might be.\nWhat will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH [“Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7625/date-of-va-covid-hospitalizations-peak/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:52.749Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:03.993Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 10,
+      "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57834,7 +56374,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:25:57.961Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:09.328Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 214,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57847,6 +56387,36 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:14.545Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 163,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/",
@@ -57864,9 +56434,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:03.205Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:19.757Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 64,
+      "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57894,7 +56464,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:08.421Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:24.931Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 234,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -57907,55 +56477,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:13.634Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 119,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.3,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:19.614Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 163,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/",
@@ -57973,9 +56494,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:24.818Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:30.356Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 172,
+      "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -57992,7 +56513,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $26 million to the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\" in 2020 and $22 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:29.957Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:35.785Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58011,7 +56532,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $15 million to the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\" in 2020 and $63 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on risks from Artificial Intelligence should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:35.279Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:40.942Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58030,7 +56551,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:45.706Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:52.032Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 217,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58049,9 +56570,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/5bbf4174-08fe-4294-a2bf-2226b4b9b802?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MarketsInsider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of August. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:50.960Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:25:57.262Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 85,
+      "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -58062,32 +56583,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:26:56.209Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 31,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:02.225Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:02.671Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 283,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58100,368 +56602,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as &gt;.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:07.537Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 81,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)\nAccording to [the indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/page/file/1135066/download), the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.\nTheranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.\nHolmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. \nTheranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, [Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2015/05/27/forbes-announces-inaugural-list-of-americas-50-richest-self-made-women/)\nA turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.\nHolmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, [subject to further legal wrangling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-has-over-100-questions-for-jurors-11622217048), with the [trial expected to commence on August 31.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elizabeth-holmes-trial-pushed-to-august-after-surprise-pregnancy-announcement.html) However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to [a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.327949/gov.uscourts.cand.327949.808.0.pdf), the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer.\nWill Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. \nIf Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023.\nIf this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.81,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:12.781Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 127,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 155,195 new cases were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:18.085Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 129,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7349/industrial-production-index-july-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:23.359Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 73,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-09T23:55:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-08-19T23:55:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7377/change-in-vix-by-5-after-nfp-numbers/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&amp;P 500 stock index option prices.\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next month. \nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of [82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th. \nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index on the day of and throughout the following week.\nWill the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point within 7 days the VIX increases or decreases more than 5 points above or below the closing day value of the VIX on the day prior to the release dates of either July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll values. \nIf after 7 days at closing the VIX has not changed more than 5 points from its closing day values the day prior to the release dates of the Non-Farm Payroll values, then this question resolves negatively.\nIntra-daily values do count towards positive resolution.\nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.56,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:29.002Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 89,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-18T01:42:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:34.200Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 114,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. However, before cultivated meat can come to market, a regulatory framework must be in place. \nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/):\nIn March [2019], the USDA and FDA released a formal agreement outlining regulatory roles that leverage each agency’s expertise—the FDA will oversee the earlier stages of cultivated meat production, and the USDA will oversee the later stages.\nVox's Kelsey Piper [goes on to explain](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian):\nBasically, regulation of meat involves both agencies — the USDA overlooking food processing, labeling, and distribution, and the FDA conducting inspections and safety checks — and the regulation of cell-based meat will, too. This agreement outlines which problems are the jurisdiction of which agency, so they can develop further guidelines without stepping on each others’ toes.\nWhen will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?\nThis question resolves as the first date when at least 5 separate cultivated meat products are approved by federal regulators for commercial sale. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires regulatory approval but it does not require the relevant products be for sale\n--- \nPositive resolution does not require all the relevant products to be labelled as cell-based meat\n--- \nSeparate cultivated meat products are those belonging to different product lines (i.e. are sold under different brand names), but may be produced by the same company. For example XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.0\" and XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.1\" are considered the same product for the purpose of this question\n--- \nIn case this question does not resolve prior to 2035-12-31, this question resolves as \"&gt;2035-12-31\"\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:39.443Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 84,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-04-22T23:23:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:24:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.14,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.86,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:44.883Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 711,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.06,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.94,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:50.085Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 141,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7379/lowest-e-mini-sp-closing-value-in-september/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "An [E-mini](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emini.asp) is an electronically traded futures contract that is a fraction of the value of its corresponding futures contract. E-mini futures are predominately traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and typically correspond to large range of indices, including the US S&amp;P 500.\nAs defined by the Corporate Finance Institute, \n\"A [futures contract](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/e-mini-futures/), referred to as a futures, is a binding legal financial contract, or an agreement, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price, at a specified, pre-agreed date, in the future, between two parties who don’t necessarily know, or are involved in business with, each other.\"\nThese transactions allow the presence of smaller traders who could not necessarily afford the full sized contract. Because the E-minis are broken down into fractional parts for this type of trading, it [increases the flexibility of futures trading and the liquidity of the market](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/e-mini-futures/). \nThe recent boom of the stock market following the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed E-mini trading prices for the S&amp;P 500 futures contracts to their [highest level](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures) since its origination in 2008.\nWhat will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&amp;P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?\nThis question resolves as the lowest closing value for the E-mini S&amp;P 500 Futures Continuous Contract in September. For this question, inter-daily values will not be counted.\nResolution will be sourced from [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures) or other reliable financial reporting platforms.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:27:55.313Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 72,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-02T01:48:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-02T01:48:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.23,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.77,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:00.549Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 97,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:05.813Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 67,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2028-12-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.14,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.86,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:16.307Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 95,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.41,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:21.533Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 204,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:26.710Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 169,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/",
@@ -58479,7 +56619,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:31.944Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:07.870Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 187,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58493,42 +56633,61 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
+    "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (&gt;230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
+    "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)\nAccording to [the indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/page/file/1135066/download), the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.\nTheranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.\nHolmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. \nTheranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, [Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2015/05/27/forbes-announces-inaugural-list-of-americas-50-richest-self-made-women/)\nA turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.\nHolmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, [subject to further legal wrangling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-has-over-100-questions-for-jurors-11622217048), with the [trial expected to commence on August 31.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elizabeth-holmes-trial-pushed-to-august-after-surprise-pregnancy-announcement.html) However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to [a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.327949/gov.uscourts.cand.327949.808.0.pdf), the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer.\nWill Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. \nIf Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023.\nIf this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.23,
+        "probability": 0.81,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.77,
+        "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:38.212Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:13.270Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 236,
+      "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 155,195 new cases were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:18.636Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 130,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:43.494Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:23.924Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 546,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58541,13 +56700,81 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7377/change-in-vix-by-5-after-nfp-numbers/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&amp;P 500 stock index option prices.\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next month. \nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of [82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th. \nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index on the day of and throughout the following week.\nWill the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point within 7 days the VIX increases or decreases more than 5 points above or below the closing day value of the VIX on the day prior to the release dates of either July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll values. \nIf after 7 days at closing the VIX has not changed more than 5 points from its closing day values the day prior to the release dates of the Non-Farm Payroll values, then this question resolves negatively.\nIntra-daily values do count towards positive resolution.\nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.57,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:29.803Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 92,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-18T01:42:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:34.980Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 117,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. However, before cultivated meat can come to market, a regulatory framework must be in place. \nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/):\nIn March [2019], the USDA and FDA released a formal agreement outlining regulatory roles that leverage each agency’s expertise—the FDA will oversee the earlier stages of cultivated meat production, and the USDA will oversee the later stages.\nVox's Kelsey Piper [goes on to explain](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian):\nBasically, regulation of meat involves both agencies — the USDA overlooking food processing, labeling, and distribution, and the FDA conducting inspections and safety checks — and the regulation of cell-based meat will, too. This agreement outlines which problems are the jurisdiction of which agency, so they can develop further guidelines without stepping on each others’ toes.\nWhen will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?\nThis question resolves as the first date when at least 5 separate cultivated meat products are approved by federal regulators for commercial sale. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires regulatory approval but it does not require the relevant products be for sale\n--- \nPositive resolution does not require all the relevant products to be labelled as cell-based meat\n--- \nSeparate cultivated meat products are those belonging to different product lines (i.e. are sold under different brand names), but may be produced by the same company. For example XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.0\" and XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.1\" are considered the same product for the purpose of this question\n--- \nIn case this question does not resolve prior to 2035-12-31, this question resolves as \"&gt;2035-12-31\"\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:40.237Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 84,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-04-22T23:23:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:24:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:48.661Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:45.387Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58560,6 +56787,221 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.06,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.94,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:50.633Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 144,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.23,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.77,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:26:55.779Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 98,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7379/lowest-e-mini-sp-closing-value-in-september/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "An [E-mini](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emini.asp) is an electronically traded futures contract that is a fraction of the value of its corresponding futures contract. E-mini futures are predominately traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and typically correspond to large range of indices, including the US S&amp;P 500.\nAs defined by the Corporate Finance Institute, \n\"A [futures contract](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/e-mini-futures/), referred to as a futures, is a binding legal financial contract, or an agreement, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price, at a specified, pre-agreed date, in the future, between two parties who don’t necessarily know, or are involved in business with, each other.\"\nThese transactions allow the presence of smaller traders who could not necessarily afford the full sized contract. Because the E-minis are broken down into fractional parts for this type of trading, it [increases the flexibility of futures trading and the liquidity of the market](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/e-mini-futures/). \nThe recent boom of the stock market following the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed E-mini trading prices for the S&amp;P 500 futures contracts to their [highest level](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures) since its origination in 2008.\nWhat will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&amp;P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?\nThis question resolves as the lowest closing value for the E-mini S&amp;P 500 Futures Continuous Contract in September. For this question, inter-daily values will not be counted.\nResolution will be sourced from [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures) or other reliable financial reporting platforms.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:00.944Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 75,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-02T01:48:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-02T01:48:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:06.300Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 71,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2028-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.41,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:11.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 204,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:16.891Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 169,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.67,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:23.199Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 268,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt; 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:28.357Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 416,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:38.771Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 154,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
@@ -58577,7 +57019,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:28:59.248Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:43.973Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 294,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58590,13 +57032,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nJohnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.\nAs of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and [the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307)\nThe spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\".\nThe PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\".\nMr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.\nAs of late April 2021, [Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021), a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021.\nWill Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.95,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:49.174Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 196,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:04.377Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:54.550Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58609,13 +57081,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7643/andrew-cuomo-still-ny-governor-on-2021-12-31/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by [multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cuomo_sexual_harassment_allegations) since December 2020.\nAn independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/28/cuomo-agrees-to-independent-probe-of-sexual-harassment-allegations.html) on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and [found](https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.08.03_nyag_-_investigative_report.pdf) the following:\nWe...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment.\nFollowing the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats [called on Cuomo to resign](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566131-democrats-renew-calls-for-cuomo-to-resign-over-harassment-findings), but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo [appeared to decline to resign](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-investigation-sexual-harassment-04b0e7ba80db368124a5e9c9bcf4dc0d). Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly [impeachment inquiry](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/12/976342887/new-york-state-assembly-speaker-authorizes-impeachment-inquiry-into-governor-cuo).\nWill Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on 31 December 2021 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/) previous question by user johnnycaffeine.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.32,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:27:59.702Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 132,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T18:30:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7506/return-for-vgt-if-agi-arrives-by-2040/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of question writing, the Metaculus community currently assigns [48% probability to the proposition that human-level AI will arrive by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), and [34% to a stronger operationalization of that same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/). This question will use the weaker operationalization of AGI for resolution.\nSome observers have speculated that if AGI is created relatively soon (within a few decades) then technology stocks will rise dramatically. This thesis is generally supported by (1) the theory that [stock prices represent discounted expected future returns](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp), and (2) the hypothesis that investors will expect AGI services to be extremely profitable, as AGI can substitute for human labor, and therefore [greatly raise economic productivity](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth).\nThe [Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGT) \"seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of stocks in the information technology sector.\"\nWhat inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?\nThis question resolves only in the event that [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves before January 1st 2040. Assume that AGI is developed and demonstrated before 2040. Then this question resolves according to the hypothetical inflation-adjusted return an investor would yield by if they had bought a single share of VGT on July 2nd 2021, and sold it as soon as possible in January 2040. The return is measured in percentage points. Inflation is determined by the consumer price index, or another similar inflation measure if the consumer price index is discontinued.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:09.626Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:05.076Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58634,7 +57136,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nRelated Question:\n[US Employment of Ages 65+ in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/)\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of people (in millions) ages 65+ categorized as having been employed during some part of 2030. Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:14.825Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:10.247Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 17,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58647,6 +57149,85 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\nElon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? \nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.43,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:15.728Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 206,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-07-21T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:20.900Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 117,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-11-18T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations. \nWill an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. \nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.03,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.97,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:26.223Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 86,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:38:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:38:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/",
@@ -58655,18 +57236,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.06,
+        "probability": 0.05,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.94,
+        "probability": 0.95,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:20.083Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:31.434Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 95,
+      "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -58678,30 +57259,30 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
+    "title": "Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7636/new-va-statewide-school-mask-mandate/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n",
+    "description": "The statewide indoor mask mandate for all schools in Virginia [expired on 25 July 2021](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/). This [Public Health Order](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/134/2021/07/Public-Health-Order_7-2-2021.pdf) by the State Health Commissioner applied to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools.\nSchools in Virginia currently have the [“ability to implement local mask policies based on community level conditions and public health recommendations,”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/) though Virginia guidance still [“strongly recommends”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/2021-news-releases/virginia-departments-of-health-and-education-release-updated-guidance-for-prek-12-schools-prek-12-schools-will-make-locally-informed-decisions-on-masking-and-prevention-measures-as-informed-by/) indoor masking requirements at schools.\nWill a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?\nThis will resolve positive if Virginia’s State Health Commissioner [announces](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/) a new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian schools before 1 October 2021. Such a mandate should apply to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Exceptions similar to those of the [last order](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/134/2021/07/Public-Health-Order_7-2-2021.pdf) — namely, allowances for eating/drinking — can be made.\nAn indoor mask mandate for all Virginian schools may also be announced as part of a State of Emergency declared by the governor of Virginia for this to resolve positive. \n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.67,
+        "probability": 0.74,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+        "probability": 0.26,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:25.725Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:37.440Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 268,
+      "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -58713,7 +57294,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:30.921Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:42.760Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 798,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58743,7 +57324,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:36.156Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:48.099Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58756,13 +57337,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:53.603Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 257,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:41.454Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:28:59.000Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 175,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58792,9 +57392,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:47.001Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:04.305Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 401,
+      "numforecasts": 405,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -58811,7 +57411,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:52.340Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:09.628Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 211,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58841,7 +57441,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:29:57.595Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:20.303Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 248,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58871,7 +57471,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:02.906Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:25.464Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 47,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58884,6 +57484,36 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.05,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.95,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:30.674Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 339,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
@@ -58901,7 +57531,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:08.377Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:35.830Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58915,19 +57545,117 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
+    "title": "When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n",
+    "description": "Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these measures will be in preventing another crisis or mitigating its effects once one takes place.\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"great financial crisis\" is defined by reference to the weekly [Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2) of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is constructed by extracting the component of principal variation from 18 different indicators of the state of financial markets using principal component analysis and is designed to serve as an overall measure of stress in financial markets. A \"great financial crisis\" is a crisis that's comparable to the crisis of 2008 by this metric.\nWhen will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?\nThe question resolves to the Friday of the earliest week after the opening date of the question for which the latest version of the Financial Stress Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (which is currently SLTFSI2 but might change in the future if further revisions are made to the index by the St. Louis Fed) exceeds its value for the week ending on October 3rd 2008. This value is currently 7.0144, but may be updated if FRED updates the index. If this event doesn't occur until the closing date of the question. the question resolves as &gt;2100. If the index is discontinued altogether, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:13.605Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:41.847Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 419,
+      "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7448/nasa-awards-2nd-hls-contract-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "NASA [recently awarded SpaceX](https://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-spacex-to-develop-crewed-lunar-lander/) $2.9B as the sole winner of its Human Landing System competition to bring astronauts back to the moon. It had been expected that NASA would issue two awards, due to its previous statements that competition and redundancy were \"extremely important principles\" for the program, and so only having one was widely seen as surprising.\nIn its [source selection statement](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf) [pdf], NASA stressed that the selection of a single provider was due entirely to the fact that the HLS program was underfunded, to the point where they could only award the cheapest bid from SpaceX after negotiating with them to change the funding schedule. Later information releases revealed that SpaceX had bid $2.9B, Blue Origin $5.9B, and Dynetics approximately $8.5B. \nThere have been several developments since then which have raised the possibility of NASA revisiting this contract and awarding two providers as it had originally planned:\n--- \nBlue Origin and Dynetics quickly [filed protests](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/nasa-suspends-hls-contract-with-spacex/) on what they claim to be an unfair award selection, and NASA issued a stop-work order to SpaceX until the Government Accountability Office reviewed the protests. The GAO [denied these protest](https://spacenews.com/gao-denies-blue-origin-and-dynetics-protests-of-nasa-lunar-lander-contract/) on July 30, saying that NASA acted legally in awarding only a single company.\n--- \nThe version of S. 1260 The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act which the Senate passed on June 8 [includes in it language](https://spacenews.com/senate-passes-nasa-authorization-act-2/) which directs NASA to select a second HLS provider, while protecting SpaceX's current award. It would have to do this within 60 days from the current list of bids, which means either Blue Origin or Dynetics would be selected. However, this directive is an authorization, not an appropriation, meaning that it does not provide funding for this mandate. Additionally, it appears that there may be [some resistance to this in the House](https://www.wsj.com/articles/funding-for-bezos-space-company-fails-to-launch-in-house-11624008601), and the bill's ultimate future is unknown.\n--- \nNASA Administrator Bill Nelson [is pushing to fund HLS with a total of $10B through the \"infrastructure bill\"](https://spacenews.com/nelson-asks-senate-appropriators-for-more-hls-funding/) which Congress is currently debating.\n--- \nOn July 26, Jeff Bezos [offered to waive the first $2 billion](https://spacenews.com/bezos-offers-billions-in-incentives-for-nasa-lunar-lander-contract/) in costs if NASA chose Blue Origin as a second HLS lander system.\nWill NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 1 January 2022, NASA awards a fully funded second HLS contract to a provider other than SpaceX.\nThis question will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis only covers the Option A HLS award, and not any follow-on competitions under the HLS umbrella.\n\"Fully funded\" for the purposes of this question will mean at least 75% of that bid's requested funding is appropriated by Congress. This would cover a $10B appropriation with 100% of SpaceX’s funding met and the rest of the money going towards either of the other two bids. If any company lowers their bid (i.e. Bezos' $2B discount), then the \"fully funded\" criteria will apply to the new lowered total bid amount. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:47.062Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-04T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T06:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\n---Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008. \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n===============================================\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\nThis question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.19,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.81,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:52.351Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 74,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7366/initial-jobless-claims-september-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 30, 2021 for the reference date September 25, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:29:58.124Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 85,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-21T01:22:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T01:22:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7136/7-day-avg-of-1-october-covid-tests-in-va/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this fall — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases.\nOn 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 October 2021 on the VDH [SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-testing/).\nIf the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as &gt;40k\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:03.309Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 221,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-02T16:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -58950,7 +57678,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:19.113Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:08.753Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 137,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58963,13 +57691,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.98,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:14.450Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 145,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.\nGNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. \nThe World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.\n[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. \nThe threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). \nThe high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nThis question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:24.442Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:19.611Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 171,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -58988,7 +57746,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:29.699Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:24.747Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 81,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59001,13 +57759,92 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7625/date-of-va-covid-hospitalizations-peak/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular when the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might occur.\nWhen will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?\nThis question will resolve as the date of the peak 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH [“Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7624/va-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-oct/) related question on what this peak will be.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:29.893Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 20,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-24T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-08T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.\nWill there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over $250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example. \nA donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.51,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.49,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:35.184Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 45,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.93,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:40.410Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 377,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding &gt;75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:35.332Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:45.901Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 185,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59028,18 +57865,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.33,
+        "probability": 0.32,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:40.673Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:51.196Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 114,
+      "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -59050,13 +57887,62 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:30:56.432Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 428,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.37,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.63,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:01.624Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 25,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7324/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Russia has started vaccinating adults from the general population with the [Sputnik V COVID vaccine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine) in December 2020. As of June 2021, it is [authorized for use](https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/) in 66 other countries including India and Brazil. However, as of June 2021 it is not approved by the World Health Organization in its emergency use listing (EUL). Approval by WHO is important, for example, for people vaccinated with Sputnik V if they want to [study in US schools](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/us/coronavirus-vaccine-college-students.html) or travel in places that require you to be vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine.\nAs of June 3, 2021 WHO lists Pfizer, Moderna, 3 variants of AstraZeneca, J&amp;J, Sinopharm and Sinovac as being approved for emergency use. Sputnik V is in the pipeline, with additional data being processed and inspections held every month. There is no official anticipated decision date, however, there have been developments that indicate that the approval may come relatively soon:\nFrom [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/03/who-europe-medicines-agency-finishing-sputnik-v-review-reports-a74096): \"Right now, our specialists are in Russia and their mission here will be completed by June 4,\" WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge told TASS. \"That’s when a report with recommendations that will be taken into account will be prepared,\" Kluge added on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The public health expert noted that “there are definitely grounds for optimism” on the prospect of Sputnik V’s approval.\nFrom [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-expects-who-approve-sputnik-v-vaccine-within-2-months-rdif-2021-06-04/): \"Russia expects the World Health Organization (WHO) to approve the Sputnik V vaccine against coronavirus within two months, Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) which markets the vaccine, told Reuters. [...] \"We see that inspectors are keeping a professional attitude ... there are no significant critical remarks, at least for now.\"\nWhen will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?\nThe question resolves on the date when WHO approval for Sputnik V vaccine is granted for emergency use. If such as an approval is not granted, this resolves at the upper bound.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:45.906Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:06.789Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 167,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59075,7 +57961,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:51.308Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:12.106Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59088,25 +57974,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Most scientists [now believe](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2) that, even with the vaccines, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will continue to circulate throughout the globe for many years to come. The new Delta variant has prompted [new alarm](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/17/1017075240/delta-variant-is-spreading-fast-and-new-cases-are-rising-is-time-to-mask-up-agai) and triggered again calls for indoor masking and social distancing. Anecdotally, many people are disgruntled by these developments, because they want life to truly get back to normal, the way it was back in 2019.\nIn order for life to return to complete normality by the end of the decade, there must be a presumption that COVID-19 is no longer a significant threat, and in any case will not get substantially worse if restrictions are lifted. One way of measuring this presumption is to predict how many deaths there will be of COVID-19 on average during the years to come.\nHow many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the mean number of people reported to have died of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022 through 2025, according to official statistics. In other words, add up the number of people who died during each year from 2022 to 2025, and divide that number by 4.\nOfficial statistics refer to statistics released by official government sources, such as the CDC. If no official statistics are provided, then authoritative academic reports will be consulted. If those are unavailable, then high quality media reports will be consulted. In case two sources conflict, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in deciding which source is more authoritative.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:30:56.545Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 47,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-21T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in  2018?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
@@ -59124,7 +57991,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:06.910Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:22.769Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 193,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59143,9 +58010,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:12.464Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:27.910Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 72,
+      "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-09-07T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -59162,7 +58029,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old.\nAs of 27 April, [43.2%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) of Virginia's total population of 8.5M has been vaccinated with at least one dose.\nWhen will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the date when the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure displayed on the VDH [COVID-19 Vaccine Summary](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) dashboard reaches 75%. \nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2023, it resolves as &gt; 31 July 2023.\nThis question retroactively closes to when the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure reaches 70%.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:17.680Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:33.139Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 264,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59175,25 +58042,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7558/algorithm-for-factoring-in-polynomial-time/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The question of whether or not an integer can be [factored in polynomial time](http://(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer_factorization)) (in the size of the input) is one of the most important problems in theoretical computer science. A quick algorithm for factoring could potentially [break RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_problem). [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm) is an algorithm for factoring in polynomial time using a quantum computer, but it is not a classical algorithm.\nWhen will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?\nThis question will resolve as the date of a publication in a major mathematical journal or computer science conference which proves the existence of a classical algorithm for factoring in polynomial time. It is not necessary for the algoritm itself to be known, or to be efficent or practical, it is sufficient to prove that some such algoritm exists.\nIf there is a proof published that shows that such an algorithm is impossible, this question will close retroactively 1 day before the paper is published/preprinted. The question would resolve as &gt;2121.\nThe algorithm is allowed to be randomized. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:22.910Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 25,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-26T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2121-01-21T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/",
@@ -59211,7 +58059,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:28.070Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:38.330Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 76,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59230,9 +58078,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:33.275Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:43.605Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 59,
+      "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -59244,19 +58092,19 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
+    "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
+    "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&amp;biw=1440&amp;bih=741&amp;tbm=nws&amp;ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&amp;q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&amp;oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&amp;search=minimum%20wage&amp;categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&amp;src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf there is no Taco Bell in Westfield or the minimum wage in that area is greater than the federal minimum wage at the time of the resolution of this question, the closest Taco Bell will be selected where the federal minimum wage is in effect.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-31 removed:\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-31 added :\nIf there is no Taco Bell in Westfield or the minimum wage in that area is greater than the federal minimum wage at the time of the resolution of this question, the closest Taco Bell will be selected where the federal minimum wage is in effect.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:38.930Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:49.080Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 135,
+      "numforecasts": 189,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:02:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -59279,7 +58127,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:44.137Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:54.274Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 111,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59309,7 +58157,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:49.359Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:31:59.602Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 67,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59339,7 +58187,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:54.540Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:04.805Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 152,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59369,7 +58217,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:31:59.778Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:09.951Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59382,43 +58230,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.46,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.54,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:04.986Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 348,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $67 million to the focus area \"Scientific Research\" in 2020 and $54 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Scientific Research\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Scientific Research, excluding research into Artificial Intelligence Risks, should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:10.213Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:15.100Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59448,7 +58266,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:15.588Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:20.285Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 128,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59478,7 +58296,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:20.834Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:25.514Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 184,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59491,25 +58309,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7621/peak--ili-in-va-during-2021-2022-flu-season/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWhat will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?\nThis will resolve on 1 June 2022 as the weekly peak percent ILI during the 2021-2022 flu season in Virginia as reported by the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). \nIf the peak percent ILI exceeds 30%, this resolves as “&gt;30”.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:26.077Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/",
@@ -59527,7 +58326,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:32.535Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:31.704Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59540,15 +58339,45 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.24,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.76,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:36.892Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 357,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7602/date-new-variant-overtakes-delta-in-virginia/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Delta variant is [thought](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005395/23_July_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_Delta.pdf) to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness. It became the dominant variant in Virginia in the week ending 26 June 2021 according to the VDH “Infections by Week of Symptom Onset” graph on their [“Variants of Concern” page](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/variants-of-concern/). \nThere is [concern](https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1414433034716188672) that a new variant that is even more transmissible than Delta or can evade immunity to an even greater extent may overtake it to become the dominant circulating variant. On the other hand, some [suggest](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01421-7) that SARS-CoV-2 may have now reached peak fitness.\nAs of the most recent 30 July update, the [dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/variants-of-concern/) shows that Delta became the dominant variant in the week ending 26 June 2021, when it made up ~63% of sequenced cases (59/93).\nWhen will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?\nThis resolves on the basis of VDH’s “Infections by Week of Symptom Onset” graph on their [“Variants of Concern” page](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/variants-of-concern/). This dashboard is updated weekly on Fridays. When the dashboard shows that a variant other than Delta makes up &gt;50% of sequenced cases in a week, this will resolve as the last day of that week.\nIf this does not occur before 31 December, it resolves as \"&gt; Dec 31, 2022\"\nWhen a variant other than Delta first appears to make up &gt;50% of sequenced cases in a week, this question will close. However, resolution will not occur until 5 weeks after this occurs since late-arriving sequencing data might affect the percent prevalence figure.\nIf the VDH dashboard ceases to be updated on a weekly basis, the [“Tracked lineages over time in Virginia, United States” chart of outbreak.info](https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA_US-VA&amp;selected=AY.1&amp;selected=AY.2&amp;selected=AY.3&amp;selected=B.1.1.7&amp;selected=B.1.351&amp;selected=B.1.351.2&amp;selected=B.1.351.3&amp;selected=B.1.617.2&amp;selected=P.1&amp;selected=P.1.1&amp;selected=P.1.2&amp;selected=AV.1&amp;selected=B.1.1.318&amp;selected=B.1.427&amp;selected=B.1.429&amp;selected=B.1.525&amp;selected=B.1.526&amp;selected=B.1.617.1&amp;selected=B.1.617.3&amp;selected=B.1.621&amp;selected=C.36.3&amp;selected=C.37&amp;selected=P.2&amp;selected=P.3&amp;selected=B.1.1.7%20%2B%20S%3AE484K) will be considered for resolution. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:37.677Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:42.237Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 15,
+      "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -59559,32 +58388,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:42.975Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 33,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7055/prop-of-qsr-with-cultivated-meat-in-2026/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWhat proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of top Quick Service Restaurants that offer at least one cultivated meat product in at least some of their stores in the calendar year 2026.\nFor the purpose of this question, Top Quick Service Restaurants include the following:\nSubway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, Hardee's, Chick-fil-A, Chipotle, Little Caesars\nCompanies need to offer cultivated meat products for sale to the general public in at least one location at least once in 2026. In case a listed QSRs is no longer in business, it is removed from the list, and therefore should not influence the computed proportion.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:49.380Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:47.497Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59598,34 +58408,23 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/",
+    "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. [A previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/) of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%.\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 1000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:54.615Z",
+    "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:52.678Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 138,
+      "numforecasts": 35,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T20:10:28.230000Z"
+        "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
     "title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
@@ -59633,7 +58432,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:32:59.837Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:32:57.870Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 143,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59663,7 +58462,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:05.555Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:03.184Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 323,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59682,7 +58481,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows:\nHow high will U.S. total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:10.813Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:08.448Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59701,7 +58500,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. Dustin Moskovitz has a net worth of $19.5 billion in June 2021, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/dustin-a-moskovitz/). According to Open Philanthropy, they intended on founding Good Ventures to give away most of their wealth [during their lifetime](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/who-we-are). This question asks when they will first succeed in granting 5% of their wealth in a 12 month period.\nWhen will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year?\nThis questions resolves to the date when the trailing 12 month total of donations made by Good Ventures according to their Grants Database exceeds 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth on that date according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\nIf this question does not resolve positively by 01/01/2040, it resolves as \"&gt;01/01/2040\".\nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires index is no longer publishing, an alternative source such as Forbes may be used. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:16.273Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:14.204Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59731,7 +58530,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:22.733Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:19.954Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59761,7 +58560,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:33.171Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:25.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59791,7 +58590,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:38.371Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:30.689Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 313,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59805,30 +58604,30 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/",
+    "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\n---Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008. \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n===============================================\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\nThis question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.\n",
+    "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.19,
+        "probability": 0.6,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.81,
+        "probability": 0.4,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:43.527Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:36.588Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 73,
+      "numforecasts": 154,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -59851,7 +58650,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:48.860Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:41.900Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 226,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59865,38 +58664,38 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/",
+    "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to pigs](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include H1N1, or the Swine Flu, and the Nipah Virus, both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. Global deaths for humans who contracted H1N1 range between 100,000 and 600,000, and over a million pigs have been killed since the discovery of Nipah Virus for their ability to spread the virus to people, where the case fatality rate was recorded between 40-70%.\nHow many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of pigs, hogs, or swine reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of pigs, hogs and swine that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe pigs, hogs, or swine must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
+    "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:54.033Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:47.506Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 96,
+      "numforecasts": 722,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:20:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:20:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7626/va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/",
+    "title": "How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might be.\nWhat will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 deaths on the VDH [“Number of Deaths by Date of Death” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7627/date-of-va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
+    "description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to pigs](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include H1N1, or the Swine Flu, and the Nipah Virus, both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. Global deaths for humans who contracted H1N1 range between 100,000 and 600,000, and over a million pigs have been killed since the discovery of Nipah Virus for their ability to spread the virus to people, where the case fatality rate was recorded between 40-70%.\nHow many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of pigs, hogs, or swine reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of pigs, hogs and swine that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe pigs, hogs, or swine must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:33:59.383Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:52.783Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 17,
+      "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-24T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-08T16:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:20:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:20:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -59919,7 +58718,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:04.599Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:33:58.130Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 149,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59938,7 +58737,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. \nFrom [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):\nChandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. \nBut for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? \nQuestion resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:09.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:03.956Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59957,7 +58756,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:15.000Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:09.477Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -59976,9 +58775,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to the Good Food Institute's [2020 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), since 1980, U.S. plant-based food companies and their investors have generated more than $21.4 billion through exits. In 2019 alone, $1.27 billion was generated through IPOs and subsequent public offerings of new shares. Mergers, acquisitions, and buyouts generated the rest.\nIn 2019, an estimated $1.27 billion was generated through exists. The majority of this was generated in Beyond Meat IPO, which sold over $760 million in shares to the public through an IPO and subsequent offering.\nHow much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of funds raised by IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions by U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2022. \nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: include mergers, acquisitions, public offerings, and buyouts. The resolution procedure will mirror the approach taken in their report as closely as possible.\nThis question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data sources, such as Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. \nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:20.413Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:14.638Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 82,
+      "numforecasts": 84,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60006,7 +58805,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:25.629Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:19.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60025,9 +58824,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to the U.S. CDC, [long-term care facilities (LCTFs)](https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html) are nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities that provide care to people unable to live independently. \nAs of 30 July 2021, there have been [1,082](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in Virginian LCTFs.\nThere is a need to know whether there will continue to be a substantial number of COVID-19 outbreaks in Virginian LCTFs going forward. Recent survey data indicates [90.6%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/A-Descriptive-Analysis-COVID-19-Vaccine-Uptake-in-Long-term-Care-Facilities-of-Virginia-March-2021-1.pdf) of LCTF residents have received at least one vaccine dose.\nHow many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the number of [new COVID-19 outbreaks that occur in Virginian LCTFs](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) as of 1 August 2022. Only new outbreaks that are reported after 30 July 2021 will be considered for this question. The cumulative totals as of 30 July 2021 (1,082) will be subtracted from the cumulative totals as of 1 August 2022.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:36.120Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:24.999Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 13,
+      "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60055,9 +58854,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:41.398Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:30.277Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 988,
+      "numforecasts": 992,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60069,49 +58868,30 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
+    "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:46.999Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 179,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7119/vaccine-for-children-under-12-before-1-sept/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. \nThere are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer [requested an amendment](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-04/EUA-12-15yo-Statement-9-April-2021.pdf?VersionId=Vg2h9d1M1XTo58jO8UIogPxXeLcn27cH) to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group. \nIn March 2021, Pfizer [announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal), with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna [announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-first-participants-dosed-phase-23-study-0). In early April 2021, Janssen [announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-expands-phase-2a-clinical-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-to-include-adolescents).\nWill at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of a [press announcement by the FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. For this to resolve positively, such an authorization should cover an age group of at least seven years — for instance, an authorization for 5-11 year olds (inclusive) would count but 9-11 year olds (inclusive) would not.\n",
+    "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are &gt;= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.52,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.96,
+        "probability": 0.48,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:52.198Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:35.822Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 308,
+      "numforecasts": 423,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-02T16:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -60134,9 +58914,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:34:57.370Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:40.996Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 225,
+      "numforecasts": 226,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60147,6 +58927,36 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7119/vaccine-for-children-under-12-before-1-sept/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. \nThere are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer [requested an amendment](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-04/EUA-12-15yo-Statement-9-April-2021.pdf?VersionId=Vg2h9d1M1XTo58jO8UIogPxXeLcn27cH) to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group. \nIn March 2021, Pfizer [announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal), with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna [announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-first-participants-dosed-phase-23-study-0). In early April 2021, Janssen [announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-expands-phase-2a-clinical-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-to-include-adolescents).\nWill at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of a [press announcement by the FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. For this to resolve positively, such an authorization should cover an age group of at least seven years — for instance, an authorization for 5-11 year olds (inclusive) would count but 9-11 year olds (inclusive) would not.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.04,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.96,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:46.674Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 308,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-02T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
@@ -60164,7 +58974,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:02.772Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:51.860Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 150,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60183,7 +58993,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&amp;text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:07.973Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:34:57.066Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60213,7 +59023,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:13.177Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:02.295Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60227,19 +59037,19 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7610/3rd-grader-math-test-pass-rate-for-2021-2022/",
+    "title": "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "There is [substantial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/students-falling-behind/2020/12/06/88d7157a-3665-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) [concern](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/us/coronavirus-education-lost-learning.html) that many students in the U.S. have recently fallen behind compared to where they would have been had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. In particular, many students seem to have struggled with [remote online learning](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/education/2020/12/13/covid-online-school-tutoring-plan/6334907002/). A December 2020 [study](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help#) by McKinsey &amp; Co. estimates that white students have been set back by one to three months in math, while students of color have been set back by three to five months.\nIn the 2018-2019 school year, the Standard of Learning (SOL) assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders was [82.38%](https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=152:1:12132392610818:SHOW_REPORT::::).\nWhat will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of data provided by the [Standard of Learning assessment program](https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=152:1:12132392610818:SHOW_REPORT::::) of the Virginia Department of Education.\n",
+    "description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:18.554Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:07.640Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -60262,7 +59072,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:23.789Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:12.841Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 274,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60281,9 +59091,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for August 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:28.962Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:18.407Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 43,
+      "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60294,15 +59104,45 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.13,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.87,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:23.791Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 711,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7605/date-of-pre-aug-2022-va-cli-visits-peak/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nWhen will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?\nThis will resolve as the date of the peak in “CLI Visits (Count)” in the [“ED Visits for COVID-Like Illness (CLI)” VDH graph](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/). \nThe week ending 7 August 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 July 2022 is the last week covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/) related question on what the peak will be.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:34.510Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:34.539Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 11,
+      "numforecasts": 18,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60313,25 +59153,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7135/7-day-avg-of-1-august-covid-tests-in-va/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this summer — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases.\nOn 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 August 2021 on the VDH [SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-testing/).\nIf the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as &gt;40k\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:39.749Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 160,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-08-06T16:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/",
@@ -60349,7 +59170,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:45.017Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:39.748Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60368,7 +59189,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nThis is in addition to the [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/) of whether, by 2024, the European Commission will make a proposal to phase out cages.\nOn June 30th 2021, the Commission responded to the [End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/) [European Citizen's Initiative](https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12842-Animal-welfare-%E2%80%98End-the-Cage-Age%E2%80%99-European-citizens%E2%80%99-initiative_en), which called for a ban on cages for farmed animals, by [writing](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/sites/default/files/2021-06/1_EN_ACT_part1_v7.pdf):\n\" . . the Commission intends to put forward a legislative proposal by the end of 2023 to phase out and finally prohibit the use of cages for all the animal species and categories referred to in the initiative (laying hens, sows, calves, rabbits, pullets, broiler breeders, layer breeders, quail, ducks and geese) as part of the planned revision of EU animal welfare legislation, under conditions (including the length of the transition period) to be determined based on EFSA opinions, the results of an impact assessment and a public consultation. . . . The date of entry into force of the prohibition, and thus the length of the phasing out period, will be considered in the context of the impact assessment for the legislative proposal. In particular, this will assess the feasibility of working towards the proposed legislation entering into force from 2027 taking into account the need to support farmers in this transition – financially and otherwise. . . . the Commission will consider the available science, an assessment of social, economic and environmental impacts, evolving needs and consumer demand. These elements will be taken into account when it comes to determining the length of a reasonable transition period and the accompanying and supporting measures to facilitate the transition. The Commission in particular will assess the feasibility of working towards the proposed legislation entering into force from 2027.\"\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that as of 2020 [52%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nSome EU countries already have plans to phase out cages or have already done so.\n--- \nGermany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.\n--- \nIn Austria, a [ban](https://www.ris.bka.gv.at/Dokument.wxe?Abfrage=Erv&amp;Dokumentnummer=ERV_2004_1_118) on enriched cages came into force in 2020.\n---In Luxembourg, a [ban](http://legilux.public.lu/eli/etat/leg/rgd/2002/01/28/n1/jo) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---Czechia [agreed](https://pozitivni-zpravy.cz/cesi-vybojovali-svobodu-pro-slepice-zakaz-klecovych-chodu-podepsal-prezident/) to phase out cages by 2027. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030 as part of a memorandum signed with the chicken industry. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.gaia.be/en/news/wallonia-adopts-ambitious-animal-welfare-code), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. \n---France was to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients) though it doesn't seem to have been legislated, and the European Commission [claimed](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/sites/default/files/2021-06/1_EN_ACT_part1_v7.pdf) enriched cages are \"banned in France for new or refurbished farms\". \n---The Netherlands [planned](https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/stb-2010-284.html) to ban enriched cages from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used- though it seems to have been [postponed](https://www.animalrights.nl/de-%E2%80%98verrijkte-kooi%E2%80%99-voor-legkippen-verboden#fn:2). \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting.\nIf the EU bans caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Union is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have adopted into law a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union by a certain date. Note the regulation may include a date after which no new cages are to be installed in addition to a date after which all existing cages can no longer be stocked and used. In this question we are concerned with the second of these two dates. \nThis question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the announcement. If there is no phase-out date included in the law, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will resolve ambiguous if it doesn't resolve by 2060 or if the date in question is after 2060.\nEnriched, furnished, or colony cages will be considered caged-housing. Semi- or limited-access barns will not be consider caged-housing. The law may not contain the exact language \"ban cages\" but rather require some minimum space requirements, outdoor access, and enrichment materials that de fact mean extreme confinement in a cage or crate is impossible. The opinion of credible animal rights/welfare organisations like Compassion in World Farming or Eurogroup for Animals can be referred to in case of ambiguity. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:50.465Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:44.971Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 21,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60398,9 +59219,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:35:55.829Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:50.301Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 400,
+      "numforecasts": 402,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60428,7 +59249,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:06.295Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:35:55.688Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60441,74 +59262,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt;2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:11.702Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 536,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T07:59:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.1,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:17.043Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 894,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "AGI is often defined as the ability of an intelligent agent to understand or learn intellectual tasks at a human level. A more concrete way to classify AI systems is in terms of their potential impact on the world economy.\nFollowing is a definition of Transformative AI by Ajeya Cotra in her [Draft report on AI Timelines](https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP):\n“Transformative artificial intelligence” (Transformative AI or TAI) is defined as “software” (i.e. a computer program or collection of computer programs) that has at least as profound an impact on the world’s trajectory as the Industrial Revolution did. \nHow large is an impact “as profound as the Industrial Revolution”? Roughly speaking, over the course of the Industrial Revolution, the rate of growth in gross world product (GWP) went from about ~0.1% per year before 1700 to ~1% per year after 1850, a tenfold acceleration. By analogy, I think of “transformative AI” as software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it).\nCurrently, the world economy is growing at ~2-3% per year, so TAI must bring the growth rate to 20%-30% per year if used everywhere it would be profitable to use. This means that if TAI is developed in year Y, the entire world economy would more than double by year Y + 4.\nHow many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?\nCriteria for AGI is same as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/).\nLet world real GDP be 25% higher than all prior years for the first time in year X. If X is 10 years before AGI is developed, the question resolves as +10. If X is 10 years after AGI is developed, the question resolves as -10.\nIf neither AGI is developed nor world real GDP becomes 25% higher than all prior years within resolve date, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n[Here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) are world real GDP growth rates since 1961. [Here](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) is an estimation of growth rates on a longer timescale.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:27.678Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 40,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-04T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2050-01-01T14:18:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T14:23:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
@@ -60526,9 +59279,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:32.989Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:00.911Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 105,
+      "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60539,6 +59292,44 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt;2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:06.111Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 537,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T07:59:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "AGI is often defined as the ability of an intelligent agent to understand or learn intellectual tasks at a human level. A more concrete way to classify AI systems is in terms of their potential impact on the world economy.\nFollowing is a definition of Transformative AI by Ajeya Cotra in her [Draft report on AI Timelines](https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP):\n“Transformative artificial intelligence” (Transformative AI or TAI) is defined as “software” (i.e. a computer program or collection of computer programs) that has at least as profound an impact on the world’s trajectory as the Industrial Revolution did. \nHow large is an impact “as profound as the Industrial Revolution”? Roughly speaking, over the course of the Industrial Revolution, the rate of growth in gross world product (GWP) went from about ~0.1% per year before 1700 to ~1% per year after 1850, a tenfold acceleration. By analogy, I think of “transformative AI” as software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it).\nCurrently, the world economy is growing at ~2-3% per year, so TAI must bring the growth rate to 20%-30% per year if used everywhere it would be profitable to use. This means that if TAI is developed in year Y, the entire world economy would more than double by year Y + 4.\nHow many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?\nCriteria for AGI is same as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/).\nLet world real GDP be 25% higher than all prior years for the first time in year X. If X is 10 years before AGI is developed, the question resolves as +10. If X is 10 years after AGI is developed, the question resolves as -10.\nIf neither AGI is developed nor world real GDP becomes 25% higher than all prior years within resolve date, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n[Here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) are world real GDP growth rates since 1961. [Here](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) is an estimation of growth rates on a longer timescale.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:11.259Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 40,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-04T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2050-01-01T14:18:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T14:23:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/",
@@ -60556,7 +59347,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:38.316Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:16.734Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60586,9 +59377,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:43.732Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:22.007Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 430,
+      "numforecasts": 431,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60605,9 +59396,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia [has prioritized](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/diversity/equity-leadership-taskforce/) [health equity](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/health-equity/office-of-health-equity/covid-19-health-equity-guidebook/) in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome.\nThe Virginia Department of Health [reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/03/08/covid-19-disparities-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-virginia/) COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Black group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Black group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group.\nAs of 9 July 2021, which comes after a series of quality assurance checks, this vaccination rate ratio is [0.8](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/vdh.omhhe/viz/DisparityRatios/Cumulative).\nWhen will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?\nThe question will resolve as the date when the data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/) or [dashboard](https://public.tableau.com/profile/vdh.omhhe#!/vizhome/DisparityRatios/Cumulative) shows the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reached or exceeded 1.0.\nSee [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7120/vaccination-rate-ratios-black-virginians/) similar recently closed question.\nIf this does not occur before 31 December 2021, then this resolves as &gt; Dec 31, 2021.\nIn the past, the data on vaccination rate ratios has undergone extensive changes as a result of quality assurance checks. While these quality assurance checks now seem to be complete, please note that such quality assurance checks may again affect the data in the future. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:48.930Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:27.175Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 18,
+      "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60619,19 +59410,19 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+    "title": "How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7628/-va-4-yr-colleges-requiring-covid-vaccine/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+    "description": "There are a total of [15](https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/virginia/public-four-year-colleges/) public four-year institutions in Virginia. They are as follows:\nChristopher Newport University, George Mason University, James Madison University, Longwood University, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Mary Washington, University of Virginia, UVA’s College at Wise, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Tech, Virginia State University, William &amp; Mary.\nAccording to [The Chronicle of Higher Education](https://www.chronicle.com/blogs/live-coronavirus-updates/heres-a-list-of-colleges-that-will-require-students-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19), as of 30 July there are 13 of Virginia’s 15 public four-year institutions that are requiring that students get COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year. They are:\nChristopher Newport University, George Mason University, James Madison University, Longwood University, Norfolk State University, Old Dominion University, Radford University, University of Mary Washington, University of Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (“Virginia Tech’), William &amp; Mary. \nThis means that as of 30 July, UVA’s College at Wise and Virginia State University are not requiring that students get COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year.\nHow many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the latest update of the list compiled by [The Chronicle of Higher Education](https://www.chronicle.com/blogs/live-coronavirus-updates/heres-a-list-of-colleges-that-will-require-students-to-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19) of Virginia’s four-year colleges requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for the 2021-22 academic year.\nIf The Chronicle of Higher Education has not updated its list of colleges requiring COVID-19 vaccinations at least once within the two weeks prior to resolution, then a best attempt will be made to resolve this on the basis of each university’s vaccination policy as stated on their websites. Colleges that use language like \"must,\" \"required,\" or \"mandate\" in reference to vaccinations for students will be considered to require a COVID vaccine, even if exceptions are made for those who request medical or religious exemptions. For those who do request medical or religious exemptions, regular COVID testing should be required.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:54.219Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:32.352Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 190,
+      "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-10T16:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -60654,7 +59445,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:36:59.502Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:37.602Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 1139,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60673,9 +59464,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There have been [several](https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-end-of-democracy-in-poland) [suggestions](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/30/is-poland-retreating-from-democracy) that Polish democracy is in grave danger. Poland [lost its full democracy rating](https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/05/06/poland-no-longer-rated-as-full-democracy-in-new-freedom-house-index/) from [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House).\nThe ruling [Law and Justice party (PiS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_and_Justice) has introduced judicial reforms, which have been criticized as undermining the independence of the judiciary. The European Union has [expressed concern](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/europe/eu-poland-hungary-rule-of-law.html) that PiS is undermining Poland's democratic institutions.\n[The Economist's](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/02/global-democracy-has-a-very-bad-year) [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) measures democracy in various countries. As of 2020, Poland's democracy index is 6.85 making it a flawed democracy. What will Poland's democracy index be in 2030?\nWhat will Poland's Economist's Democracy Index be in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the value of The Economist Democracy Index in the 2030 report. If there is no such report, it will be resolved as ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:04.657Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:42.789Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 43,
+      "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-30T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60694,18 +59485,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.13,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.87,
+        "probability": 0.85,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:09.873Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:48.092Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 108,
+      "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-08T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60717,23 +59508,34 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/",
+    "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7106/carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n--- \nRussia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUS: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n--- \nChina: 350 nuclear warheads\n--- \nFrance: 290 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUK: 225 nuclear warheads\n--- \nPakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIndia: 160 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIsrael: 90 nuclear warheads\n--- \nNorth Korea: Estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower.\")\nHow many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?\nThis question resolves as the number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) detonated offensively in total between the opening of this question and 2050. If there are no offensive detonations before 2050 by any state or non-state actor, then this question will resolve as &lt;1. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of January 1, 2055.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:15.598Z",
+    "description": "[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the [#1 ranking spot](https://ratings.fide.com/top_files.phtml?id=1503014) since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated [Fabiano Caruana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabiano_Caruana) in tie-breaks after 12 draws.\n[Ian Nepomniachtchi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Nepomniachtchi) won the right to play Carlsen by winning the [2020-21 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2020%E2%80%9321). Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).\nThe [expected format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place.\nWill Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?\nThis question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.83,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:53.527Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 129,
+      "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:13:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2055-01-02T00:13:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-12-17T00:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?",
@@ -60752,9 +59554,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:20.833Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:36:59.009Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 78,
+      "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60782,7 +59584,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:26.115Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:04.242Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60795,36 +59597,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:31.357Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 221,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
@@ -60842,7 +59614,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:36.618Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:09.473Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 466,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60855,15 +59627,64 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.15,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.85,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:14.823Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 230,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the non-test detonation of a nuclear weapon after the question opens and before 2050, what fraction of individual nuclear strikes will be countervalue strikes.\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of nuclear strikes carried out by any country or non-state actor by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A strike is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the attack (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nNuclear strikes here includes authorised strikes, accidental strikes, and strikes by non-state actors. But it does not include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), even if such detonations cause substantial damage. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no non-test nuclear detonations carried out by any country after the question opens and before 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:19.984Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 37,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:20:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:20:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7617/va-overall-pop-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of 31 July, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 12+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old.\nAs of 31 July, [54.0%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) of Virginia's total population of 8.5M is fully vaccinated.\nWhat percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"% of the Population Fully Vaccinated\" figure displayed on 1 October 2021 on the VDH [COVID-19 Vaccine Summary](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) dashboard.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:42.150Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:25.276Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 12,
+      "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60874,15 +59695,83 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7619/va-12-15-yo-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In Virginia, younger age groups have recently made up a growing share of overall vaccinations — see slide 11 in the 28 July COVID Impact [report](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf). However, the overall number of new daily vaccinations has recently plateaued at a low of about [12k](​​https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/).\nAs of 30 July, [35.8%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) of the 12-15 age group in Virginia is fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.\nWhat percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021?\nThis will resolve as the percentage of 12-15 year old Virginians who are fully vaccinated as of 1 October 2021. This value will be accessed on the “Percent of the Population Fully Vaccinated - By Age Group” chart on the [VDH “COVID-19 Vaccine Demographics” dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:30.545Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 25,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-10T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as &gt;.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:35.772Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 84,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.1,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.9,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:40.993Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 896,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7622/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular how large the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might be.\nWhat will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH [“Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7623/date-of-va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:47.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:46.187Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 17,
+      "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60899,9 +59788,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/5bbf4174-08fe-4294-a2bf-2226b4b9b802?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MarketsInsider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of July. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:37:52.579Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:37:51.419Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 86,
+      "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60918,7 +59807,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:03.155Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:02.129Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -60939,18 +59828,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4,
+        "probability": 0.39,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6,
+        "probability": 0.61,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:08.412Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:07.660Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 1150,
+      "numforecasts": 1151,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60978,9 +59867,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:13.723Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:12.884Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 141,
+      "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -60997,7 +59886,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimuli for future investment.\nGFI [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf)\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nAs of 2019, the [US plant-based meat companies with the largest investment rounds](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf) were Impossible Foods($300M Series E+), Beyond Meat ($289.8M IPO), Alpha Foods($7M Seed, $23.59M Series A), and Good Catch ($10M Series B1).\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:18.907Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:18.434Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61016,9 +59905,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for August 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\"\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:24.226Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:23.606Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 45,
+      "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61029,13 +59918,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7635/new-va-covid-state-of-emergency/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 [expired on 30 June 2021](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2021/june/headline-897920-en.html). As such, as of 1 July 2021 [“all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/executive-actions/). \nAccording to a Washington Post [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-maryland-virginia-officials-consider-lifting-states-of-emergency/2021/06/14/cb83757e-cd16-11eb-a7f1-52b8870bef7c_story.html), Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.”\nHowever, since then COVID-19 cases have risen [quickly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued.\nWill a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?\nThis will resolve positive if the governor of Virginia [announces](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/) a new State of Emergency in response to COVID-19 before 1 October 2021.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.2,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:34.117Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 16,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-17T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:34.661Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:39.655Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61054,7 +59973,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing and this progress has been accelerating, especially with developments like [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). GPT-3 has proven surprisingly capable at a wide variety of question answering tasks, but it currently is not able to make accurate Metaculus forecasts. However, as question answering and AI gets more advanced and AI supercedes humans at more and more tasks, when will AI become a better forecaster on Metaculus?\nWhen will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?\nThis question resolves positive as the date that all the following are true:\n1.) A Metaculus account is run entirely by an AI program without any human assistance\n2.) This account answers 200 randomly chosen Metaculus questions\n3.) This account maintains (a) an average of more than 30 points per resolved question, (b) a \"Log score (discrete) evaluated at all times\" greater than the community prediction, and (c) a \"Log score (discrete) evaluated at all times\" greater than the respective scores for the community prediction across the first 100 of the questions to resolve\n4.) At least 50 of the questions predicted must involve predictions made within the first half of the question's time horizon\n5.) At least 20 of the questions predicted must be continuous and at least 20 of the questions predicted must be discrete\n6.) the program must use only free publicly available information accessible by the typical Metaculite\n7.) the program does not have access to the community or Metaculus predictions.\n8.) the program must output a public text explanation of the rationale behind its forecasts for at least 10 of the randomly chosen Metaculus questions that are all deemed in good faith by a Metaculus moderator or admin to reasonably justify the prediction in question\n(edited 2020-05-02 to add specification that AI does not have the CP or MP.)\nThe program source code may be open or closed source, but the source code must be able to be inspected by a Metaculus admin to ensure it fulfills all seven criteria.\nA public text explanation by a program will \"reasonably justify the prediction in question\" if it contains more than fifty words, references only true facts that are relevant to the question, produces the same forecast as the one entered on the Metaculus question, allows one to recreate the forecast through the stated reasoning (e.g., via a referenced base rate plus adjustments), and cites relevant sources as necessary. The good faith of a Metaculus moderator or admin will be relied upon for assessing the reasonableness, and the Metaculus admin or moderator should err on the side of the program in cases where the reasonableness is ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:39.862Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:44.990Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 76,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61084,7 +60003,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:45.162Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:50.522Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 246,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61114,7 +60033,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:50.893Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:38:55.811Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61127,13 +60046,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7362/non-farm-payroll-august-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of August, which will be released in early September. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:01.055Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 64,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-02T01:15:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-11T01:15:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:38:56.149Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:06.342Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61146,34 +60084,15 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt; 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:01.329Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 395,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:06.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:11.565Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 114,
+      "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61184,13 +60103,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.29,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.71,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:16.759Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 509,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will the fed funds rate be by the end of 2023?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/u-s-interest-rate-policy/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U. S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e. g. inflation, growth and employment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve sets the target level and range for the federal funds rate (see [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp)).\nWhat will the fed funds rate be on December 31st, 2023?\nThe question resolves as the target level fed funds rate as set by the FOMC on December 31st, 2023. This information is taken from the latest press release on [the Federal Reserve's website](http://www.federalreserve.gov) containing such.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:11.687Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:21.896Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61209,7 +60158,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $10 million to the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\" in 2020 and $56 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Criminal Justice Reform should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:16.927Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:27.030Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61222,13 +60171,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7019/world-over-1-million-covid-daily-cases/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The daily global covid case seven day moving average is over 800,000. Will the world pass 1 million daily cases for the seven-day moving average? Predict the date that this could happen. \nResolution is via [Worldometers tracks the global daily covid cases](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/).\nWhen will the world surpass 1 million COVID cases per day for the seven day moving average\nIf it does not happen by Dec 31, 2021 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:32.694Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 91,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-02T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-31T18:48:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:48:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:22.151Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:37.915Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61241,13 +60209,51 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7610/3rd-grader-math-test-pass-rate-for-2021-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "There is [substantial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/students-falling-behind/2020/12/06/88d7157a-3665-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) [concern](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/us/coronavirus-education-lost-learning.html) that many students in the U.S. have recently fallen behind compared to where they would have been had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. In particular, many students seem to have struggled with [remote online learning](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/education/2020/12/13/covid-online-school-tutoring-plan/6334907002/). A December 2020 [study](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help#) by McKinsey &amp; Co. estimates that white students have been set back by one to three months in math, while students of color have been set back by three to five months.\nIn the 2018-2019 school year, the Standard of Learning (SOL) assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders was [82.23%](https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=152:1:12132392610818:SHOW_REPORT::::).\nWhat will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of data provided by the [Standard of Learning assessment program](https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=152:1:12132392610818:SHOW_REPORT::::) of the Virginia Department of Education.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:43.099Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 34,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7623/date-of-va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases there will be as the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia begins, and in particular when the peak of the ongoing [Delta-driven wave](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/COVID-19_VA_Spread_28-July-2021.pdf) might occur.\nWhen will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur?\nThis question will resolve as the date of the peak 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH [“Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \n3 August 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 September 2021 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7622/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/) related question on what this peak will be.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:48.613Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 22,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-24T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-10-08T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. \nWith the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.\nHow much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:27.314Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:54.060Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61260,13 +60266,73 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.14,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.86,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:39:59.239Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 97,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. [A previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/) of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%.\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 1000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.18,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:04.567Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 153,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T20:10:28.230000Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7025/when-will-insects-replace-fishmeal/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Fishmeal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_meal) is a product made from the bones and offal left over from the fish caught by commercial fisheries. Fishmeal is generally not for human consumption and is instead used to feed farm animals in an agricultural setting, due to being calorically dense while cheap to produce.\nThe animal industry is incentivized to replace fishmeal with an alternative to help lower costs, hedge against increased uncertainty in the future fish supply, as well as improve perceived sustainability (due to bycatch leading to depletion of ecosystems). \nOne recently proposed alternative is migrating to insect feed. Research (e.g., [Riddick, 2014](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123914538000169).; [Chia, et. al., 2019](https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/9/10/705); [Belghit, et. al., 2019](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0044848618322208)) shows that black soldier fly larvae meal can replace fishmeal. As of 2020, [a pilot program is being run in Australia](https://www.allaboutfeed.net/all-about/new-proteins/insects-in-pig-feed-in-australia/) and [new regulation in the European Union](https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/11640-Authorisation-to-feed-non-ruminants-with-ruminant-collagen-gelatine-and-with-proteins-from-insects-pigs-and-poultry) is being considered to permit insect feed to animals.\nSee also: [\"Move over, fishmeal: Insects and bacteria emerge as alternative animal feeds\"](https://news.mongabay.com/2020/04/move-over-fishmeal-insects-and-bacteria-emerge-as-alternative-animal-feeds/) and [\"Taking the Fish out of Fish Feed\"](https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/taking-the-fish-out-of-fish-feed/).\nWhen will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?\nThis question resolves as the date for when 10% of fishmeal is replaced with insect meal, per credible media reporting or research by a credible organization investigating the topic such as Open Philanthropy, Good Food Institute, or Rethink Priorities. Credibility will be determined with good faith by a Metaculus admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:32.505Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:09.826Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61285,7 +60351,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_emissions),\nIncreasing methane emissions are a major contributor to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, and are responsible for up to one-third of near-term global heating. During 2019, about 60% (360 million tons) of methane released globally was from human activities, while natural sources contributed about 40% (230 million tons).\nIn 2018, [research revealed](https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-studies) that the US oil &amp; gas industry emitted 13 million metric tons of methane. This is 60% more than the estimate of 8 million metric tons by the Environmental Protection Agency.\nSatellites can be used along with other measurement methods to more accurately measure methane emissions. Current satellites with these capabilities are TROPOMI, SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, GHGSat, PRISMA, and EnMap. In late 2022, the Environmental Defense Fund is scheduled to launch the [MethaneSAT](https://www.methanesat.org/fit-with-other-missions/) satellite. It will be able to detect methane at a 2ppb threshold at a 1 km pixel resolution. It will have a highest pixel resolution of 400 m x 100 m, a swath of 200 km, and a 7 day revisit time.\nU.S. greenhouse gas emissions, as published by the Environmental Protection Agency, can be seen here: [https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/](https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/)\nHow much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025?\nThis question will resolve as the ratio of methane emissions in the United States as measured in the first peer-reviewed publication report measurements, compared to the measurements reported by the Environmental Protection Agency. This must be over a time period of at least 12 months between 2021-2025 inclusively.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of an image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:37.671Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:15.310Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 15,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61304,7 +60370,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "COVID-19 vaccination rates among older age groups is currently [substantially higher](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) in Virginia than for younger age groups. For instance, as of 27 April 2021 the vaccination rate per 100,000 for the 70-79 age group is 77,567 while this same rate is just 31,431 for the 20-29 age group. In large part because of this, younger people are making up an increasing proportion of cases. \nA key uncertainty is the extent to which the gap in vaccination rates among age groups and other factors will affect the age demographics of COVID-19 cases.\nAs of 27 April 2021, the [20-29 age group has the largest number of cases — 124,789](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-demographics/).\nWhich age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each age group corresponds to a number between 1 and 9:\n---0-9 years old: 1 \n---10-19 years old: 2 \n---20-29 years old: 3 \n---30-39 years old: 4 \n---40-49 years old: 5 \n---50-59 years old: 6 \n---60-69 years old: 7 \n---70-79 years old: 8 \n---80+ years old: 9 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 cases data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH for the week ending 1 August 2021 (26 July-1 August).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:42.900Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:20.458Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61318,30 +60384,60 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/",
+    "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_(in_thousands)).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n",
+    "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.5,
+        "probability": 0.04,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5,
+        "probability": 0.96,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:48.105Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:25.841Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 86,
+      "numforecasts": 790,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (&gt;230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.3,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.7,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:31.198Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 249,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -61364,7 +60460,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:53.553Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:36.386Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61377,6 +60473,66 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_(in_thousands)).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.5,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.5,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:41.567Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 87,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/)\nThe US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\".\nWill the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be [CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.55,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:46.758Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 218,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:18:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -61394,7 +60550,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:39:58.755Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:52.142Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61424,7 +60580,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:04.033Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:40:57.908Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61437,6 +60593,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7563/us-cases-for-2021-08-08-through-2021-08-14/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The United States is currently experiencing an uptick in new coronavirus infections, associated with the ascendancy of the Delta variant and the continued relaxation of controls. It is unclear whether or how quickly this uptick will develop into a significant wave of infections. The main COVID-19 forecasting consulted by the United States CDC [have diverged notably](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasts-cases.html) in their 4-week case forecasts. [According to](https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418313246847631360) former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, \"The wide divergence between these models suggests difficulty modeling this epidemic wave of delta, likely reflecting in part poor ascertainment of current cases, as well as diverging views on the durability of immunity, velocity and circumstances of spread, and contagiousness.\"\nHow many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?\nResolves as the sum of confirmed COVID-19 cases for the United States from 2021-08-08 through 2021-08-14 inclusive, according to the CDC. The resolution date is 10 days after August 14th to allow time for delayed reporting. If there is a significantly superior data source, Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use that source for resolution.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:03.106Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 202,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-07-24T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-08T03:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-08-24T21:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/",
@@ -61454,7 +60629,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:09.305Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:08.406Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 122,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61467,6 +60642,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7607/-va-covid-deaths-in-va-lctfs/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "According to the U.S. CDC, [long-term care facilities (LCTFs)](https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html) are nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities that provide care to people unable to live independently. \nAs of 30 July 2021, there have been [4,265](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Virginian LCTFs, which represents ~37% of the total [11,532](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/) confirmed deaths in Virginia as of this date.\nThere is a need to know whether deaths in Virginian LCTFs will continue to make up a substantial proportion of overall COVID-19 deaths going forward. Recent survey data indicates [90.6%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/A-Descriptive-Analysis-COVID-19-Vaccine-Uptake-in-Long-term-Care-Facilities-of-Virginia-March-2021-1.pdf) of LCTF residents have received at least one vaccine dose.\nWhat percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur in LCTFs as of 1 August 2022. Only new deaths that are reported after 30 July 2021 will be considered for this question. The cumulative totals as of 30 July 2021 (4,265 deaths in LCTFs and 11,532 total deaths) will be subtracted from the cumulative totals as of 1 August 2022 for resolution and then divided (LCTF COVID deaths/all COVID deaths). \nAs of 30 July 2021, [4,265](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Virginian LCTFs — see the deaths figure for “Long Term Care Facilities” under “Cases and Deaths by Outbreak Facility Type - State Totals” on the [VDH Outbreaks page](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/). As of 30 July 2021, [11,532](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/) COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Virginia — see the “total deaths” figure on the [VDH summary dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/).\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:13.544Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 27,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
@@ -61484,7 +60678,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:15.306Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:18.728Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 69,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61503,9 +60697,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: Estimated at 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nHow many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the number of countries that increased the size of their nuclear arsenal by at least 10% as of the most recent [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23, compared to the numbers shown above. This could include a country that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gaining an arsenal of at least one nuclear weapon. In the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear arsenal\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not. \nResolution will come from [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), or other similar, reputable sources that report on the number of nuclear weapons possessed by each country. \nIf information can not be found, then resolution will be determined by a resolution council or by Metaculus admins.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:20.523Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:23.966Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 102,
+      "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61516,15 +60710,34 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7621/peak--ili-in-va-during-2021-2022-flu-season/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWhat will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?\nThis will resolve on 1 June 2022 as the weekly peak percent ILI during the 2021-2022 flu season in Virginia as reported by the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). \nIf the peak percent ILI exceeds 30%, this resolves as “&gt;30”.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:29.125Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 22,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7371/non-farm-payroll-september-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of September, which will be released in early October This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:25.868Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:34.290Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 47,
+      "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61541,9 +60754,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\nCrude oil, gas, and petroleum remain [linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do [impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nWhat will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of September in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/eia-crude-oil-stocks-change). This will include the reporting dates for 8-September, 15-September, 22-September, 29-September.\nFor reference, a [previous report](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf) released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:31.055Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:39.533Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 84,
+      "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61571,7 +60784,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:36.359Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:44.688Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61590,7 +60803,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&amp;P 500, or simply the S&amp;P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&amp;P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&amp;P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:41.900Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:49.906Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61609,9 +60822,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Recently there has been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html) [concern](https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1) that vaccinated individuals may be able to readily transmit the Delta variant given viral load levels that are apparently similar to those of unvaccinated individuals. However, the extent of secondary transmission (onward transmission to others) from vaccinated individuals is [almost certainly](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z) not equivalent to that of unvaccinated individuals — though there are no studies on the Delta variant in particular.\nCycle threshold (Ct) values indicate how much SARS-CoV-2 virus an infected person harbors. More [precisely](https://www.wvdl.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/WVDL.Info_.PCR_Ct_Values1.pdf), it is the number of amplification cycles needed in a RT-qPCR test for fluorescence to reach a specified threshold. Ct values are inversely proportional to the amount of virus — meaning the lower a Ct value, the greater the amount of virus is present in the sample since less amplification cycles are needed for the virus to reach the specified threshold. Every [~3.3 increase in the Ct value reflects a 10-fold lower level of virus](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0244777). Crucially, however, Ct values only indicate the amount of viral RNA, not infectious virus in particular — for instance, dead viral RNA that has already been neutralized by antibodies and will soon be cleared by the body might constitute detectable viral RNA even while not being infectious viral RNA.\nA 30 July [study](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm) by the U.S. CDC on a large COVID-19 outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts identified 90% of sequenced cases as the Delta variant and found that “cycle threshold values were similar among specimens from patients who were fully vaccinated and those who were not.” Specifically, the median Ct values for the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups were 22.77 and 21.54, respectively. A 31 July [pre-print](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full-text) by a team in Singapore, where the Delta variant is dominant, finds that “the initial median CT value did not value did not differ between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated patients...However, fully vaccinated patients had a faster rate of increase in Ct value over time compared with unvaccinated individuals, suggesting faster viral load decline.” Based on this, the authors suggest “it seems likely that vaccination reduces secondary transmission.”\nEpidemiological studies of secondary transmission are a way to more straightforwardly ascertain the extent to which vaccination blunts onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2. As of 1 August 2021, there have been no studies that investigate how the secondary attack rate of Delta from vaccinated individuals infected with Delta compares to that of unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta. \nHowever, there have been at least three recent well-done studies that have estimated this in the context of circulation of Alpha, the variant that was most widespread prior to Delta:\n---[40-50%](https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656) reduction in secondary transmission in vaccinated group compared to unvaccinated group \n---[78%](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.12.21260377v1.full-text) reduction in secondary transmission in vaccinated group compared to unvaccinated group \n---[41-79%](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.13.21260393v1.full) reduction in secondary transmission in vaccinated group compared to unvaccinated group \nIf we take the midpoint (45%) of the first study’s estimate and combine it with the 78% point estimate of the second study and the midpoint (60%) of the third study, we get an overall mean of ~61% reduction in secondary transmission of Alpha in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals.\nWhat is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the mean of point estimates in percent reduction in secondary transmission of Delta in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals. The first three credible studies, as judged by Metaculus, will be considered.\n\"Infected\" individuals are those who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR testing, regardless of symptom status. Note that studies done before Delta became dominant [have](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm) [consistently](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.12.21260377v1.full) [demonstrated](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.13.21260393v1.full) a ~80-90% reduction in the risk of infection in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals. A [preliminary analysis](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007376/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_30.pdf) by Public Health England estimates a ~55-90% reduction in the risk of Delta infection in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals.\nThis question specifically asks about the % reduction in secondary transmission of Delta of infected vaccinated vs. infected unvaccinated individuals. This means it does not account for the % reduction in infections occurring in vaccinated individuals in the first place, but rather is conditional on these infections having occurred so as to allow for a comparison of secondary transmission between infected vaccinated and infected unvaccinated.\nSince uninfected individuals cannot transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others, the resolution value of this question will necessarily understate how generally effective vaccines are in reducing overall transmission — that would involve combining estimates of % reduction in vaccinated individuals getting infected in the first place together with % reduction in infected vaccinated individuals passing SARS-CoV-2 to others. This question only asks about the latter.\nThe studies can be pre-prints.\nDelta must constitute at least 80% of the sequenced cases in the study populations, or if the cases are not sequenced then at least 80% overall prevalence in the population as per [outbreak.info](https://outbreak.info/). \nWhere a range is provided, the midpoint will be taken.\nFor our purposes, “vaccinated” individuals are those who have had at least one dose of a [WHO-approved vaccine](https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/agency/who/). Studies must only consider individuals for inclusion in the analysis if they had been vaccinated at least 14 days prior. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:47.281Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:41:55.156Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 32,
+      "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61623,30 +60836,49 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/",
+    "title": "When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations. \nWill an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. \nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
+    "description": "As launch costs fall, access to space has become much less expensive. According to the [Union of Concerned Scientists](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database), the number of satellites in Earth orbit is currently is projected to be 3,373 by the end of the year. When will the number of satellites in Earth orbit exceed 5,000?\nWhen will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?\nThis question will close on the date that the UCSUSA publishes a database listing more than 5000 satellites in orbit which were launched before the present time.\nThe question will resolve to the day of the launch of the spacecraft which contains the 5001st satellite.\nIn the case that the [Union of Concerned Scientists website](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database) ceases to publish its database, the question will be closed and will resolve ambiguously.\n--- \nSatellite launch times are UTC.\n--- \nThe UCSUSA database includes satellites which are predicted to launch, so it is necessary to specify that these launches must have actually occurred in order to be relevant.\n--- \nSatellites are counted by their number of design components, so a satellite which breaks apart in orbit only counts as one object unless the breakup was a maneuver planned at satellite launch. A booster stage which remains in orbit would \n--- \nSatellites must be artificial objects in Earth orbit. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:00.404Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 87,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2027-12-31T03:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T20:36:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_(decryption_program)#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.43,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.97,
+        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:52.548Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:05.660Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 85,
+      "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:38:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:38:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -61658,9 +60890,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:40:57.817Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:11.215Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 113,
+      "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61671,32 +60903,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7366/initial-jobless-claims-september-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 30, 2021 for the reference date September 25, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:03.097Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 78,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-21T01:22:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T01:22:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:08.308Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:16.373Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61715,7 +60928,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q3 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:19.081Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:26.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61745,7 +60958,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:24.368Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:31.920Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61775,7 +60988,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:29.573Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:37.122Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61788,43 +61001,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.3,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.7,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:34.794Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 506,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7234/hsv-1-vaccine-approved-by-fda/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Gene NG News](https://www.goodrx.com/blog/herpes-vaccine-progress/) in November 2020,\nA genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus (HSV) has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new preclinical study by researchers at the University of Cincinnati, Northwestern University, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The vaccine, called R2, is a form of the herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) virus that causes cold sores around the lip, but can cross-protect against HSV type 2 (HSV-2), the sexually transmitted type of HSV that is usually responsible for genital herpes.\nMany have noted that new mRNA technology created as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic has [the potential to accelerate vaccine development for other diseases](https://globalnews.ca/news/7869139/mrna-vaccines-cancer-flu-covid19/).\nWhile HSV-1, and the oral herpes it causes, may not at first sound like an urgent vaccine target, HSV-1 has been implicated as a leading cause of Alzheimers, especially in people who carry [Apolipoprotein E4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apolipoprotein_E). These research papers summarize the state of the current evidence,\n[HSV-1 and Alzheimer’s disease: more than a hypothesis](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4019841/)\n[Corroboration of a Major Role for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 in Alzheimer’s Disease](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6202583/)\nThe development of an effective HSV-1 vaccine could therefore greatly reduce the number of Alzheimers cases. If the vaccine worked like the [Shingles vaccine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine), then it may even prevent Alzheimers among people who take the vaccine after already being infected with HSV-1.\nWhen will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?\nThis question resolves on the date during which the FDA approves a vaccine intended to prevent HSV-1 infection, which includes emergency authorization.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:39.933Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:42.317Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 17,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61843,7 +61026,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:45.156Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:47.508Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 226,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61862,7 +61045,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:50.412Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:52.687Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 102,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61875,6 +61058,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7132/virginia-in-person-schooling-on-15-september/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "During the COVID-19 epidemic, school divisions have balanced the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission with the educational needs of K-12 students, who learn best in the classroom. Virginia school divisions have pursued a variety of in-person, remote and hybrid opening strategies. The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and the Department of Education (DOE) have issued [Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/03/Interim-Guidance-to-K-12-School-Reopening.pdf) (03/23/2021). VDH recommends schools use the [CDC Indicators for Dynamic School Decision-Making](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html) jointly with the Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening document to inform decisions about school operations with regard to COVID-19. VDH maintains a [School Metrics dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/key-measures/pandemic-metrics/school-metrics/) to assist school divisions in tracking CDC indicators. \nVDOE reports school division schedules in the [Virginia School Operational Status dashboard](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/reopen-status.shtml). The dashboard includes five categories:\n---In Person: 4+ days of in person instruction for all students. \n---Partial In Person: 4+ days in person for some students (usually the younger grades); hybrid or remote other students \n---All Hybrid: All students with some in person and some remote (none hitting the 4 days/week threshold). \n---Partial Hybrid: Some students hybrid (usually the younger grades; none hitting the 4 days/week threshold), all others fully remote. \n---Fully Remote: Learning is currently remote for at least 95% of students and in person for all others. \nAccording to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on VDOE's [Virginia School Operational Status dashboard](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/reopen-status.shtml). The dashboard is updated sporadically as school districts update schedules. The question will resolve based on the status as of 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time, 15 September 2021. \nAlternatively, if the dashboard is retired, a VDOE issued [news release](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/news/index.shtml) or statement on its [website](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/covid-19.shtml), or a [Governor's news release](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/), indicating all school districts are returning to fully in-person status, and no further releases from these sources or a Virginia school district indicate a change in status as of the resolution date, then the question will resolve as \"132 Divisions.\"\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:42:57.879Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 185,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-15T16:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-09-15T19:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
@@ -61892,7 +61094,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:41:55.718Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:03.031Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -61905,25 +61107,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7132/virginia-in-person-schooling-on-15-september/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "During the COVID-19 epidemic, school divisions have balanced the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission with the educational needs of K-12 students, who learn best in the classroom. Virginia school divisions have pursued a variety of in-person, remote and hybrid opening strategies. The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and the Department of Education (DOE) have issued [Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/03/Interim-Guidance-to-K-12-School-Reopening.pdf) (03/23/2021). VDH recommends schools use the [CDC Indicators for Dynamic School Decision-Making](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html) jointly with the Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening document to inform decisions about school operations with regard to COVID-19. VDH maintains a [School Metrics dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/key-measures/pandemic-metrics/school-metrics/) to assist school divisions in tracking CDC indicators. \nVDOE reports school division schedules in the [Virginia School Operational Status dashboard](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/reopen-status.shtml). The dashboard includes five categories:\n---In Person: 4+ days of in person instruction for all students. \n---Partial In Person: 4+ days in person for some students (usually the younger grades); hybrid or remote other students \n---All Hybrid: All students with some in person and some remote (none hitting the 4 days/week threshold). \n---Partial Hybrid: Some students hybrid (usually the younger grades; none hitting the 4 days/week threshold), all others fully remote. \n---Fully Remote: Learning is currently remote for at least 95% of students and in person for all others. \nAccording to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on VDOE's [Virginia School Operational Status dashboard](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/reopen-status.shtml). The dashboard is updated sporadically as school districts update schedules. The question will resolve based on the status as of 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time, 15 September 2021. \nAlternatively, if the dashboard is retired, a VDOE issued [news release](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/news/index.shtml) or statement on its [website](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/covid-19.shtml), or a [Governor's news release](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/), indicating all school districts are returning to fully in-person status, and no further releases from these sources or a Virginia school district indicate a change in status as of the resolution date, then the question will resolve as \"132 Divisions.\"\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:00.934Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 183,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-15T16:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-15T19:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
@@ -61932,18 +61115,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.29,
+        "probability": 0.28,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.71,
+        "probability": 0.72,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:06.383Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:08.248Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 500,
+      "numforecasts": 506,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -61971,7 +61154,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:12.129Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:13.490Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 481,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62001,7 +61184,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:17.364Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:19.044Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 327,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62031,7 +61214,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:22.622Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:24.449Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 137,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62061,7 +61244,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:27.849Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:29.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62091,9 +61274,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:33.061Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:35.160Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 159,
+      "numforecasts": 160,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -62110,9 +61293,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \"&gt;2090-10-25\". \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:38.369Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:40.576Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 101,
+      "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -62129,7 +61312,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nWhat will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q4 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:43.562Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:45.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62159,7 +61342,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:48.754Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:51.347Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62189,7 +61372,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:54.605Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:43:56.719Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62208,7 +61391,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:42:59.799Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:01.927Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 166,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62227,9 +61410,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[This is a continuation of [a previous question that closed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/)]\nSpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a \"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\". Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" several minutes later.\nSpaceX has another rocket system, Falcon 9, which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \nThe question will close 48 hours after the community median comes within 10 days of the then-current date, so as to prevent the question from focusing too much on short-term details and events\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:05.024Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:07.073Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 70,
+      "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-21T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -62246,7 +61429,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:10.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:12.220Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 68,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62276,7 +61459,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:15.719Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:17.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 402,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62295,7 +61478,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:20.950Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:22.924Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 146,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62325,7 +61508,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:26.231Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:28.108Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 245,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62344,7 +61527,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:31.430Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:33.265Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62374,7 +61557,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:36.611Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:38.764Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62404,7 +61587,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:41.796Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:44.031Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 101,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62434,7 +61617,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:46.957Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:49.324Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 123,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62453,7 +61636,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:43:57.804Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:44:59.803Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62472,7 +61655,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \"&gt;2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:08.330Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:11.047Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62491,7 +61674,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:13.508Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:16.290Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62521,7 +61704,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:19.379Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:21.470Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62551,7 +61734,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:24.754Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:26.795Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62572,18 +61755,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.45,
+        "probability": 0.44,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.55,
+        "probability": 0.56,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:29.977Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:31.960Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 38,
+      "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -62611,7 +61794,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:35.236Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:37.157Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62630,7 +61813,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $101 million to the focus area \"Global Health and Development\" in 2020 and $41 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Global Health and Development\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Global Health and Development should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7424/open-phil-global-health-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:40.490Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:42.352Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62649,7 +61832,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:45.668Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:47.553Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62668,7 +61851,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding &gt;75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2022.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:50.966Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:52.938Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 437,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62687,7 +61870,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is &lt;= $10 or &gt;= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:44:56.181Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:45:58.183Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62717,7 +61900,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:01.442Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:03.395Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 98,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62747,9 +61930,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:06.725Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:08.640Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
+      "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -62766,7 +61949,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&amp;ref=headline&amp;nl_art=7&amp;te=1&amp;nl=upshot&amp;emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.\nThis could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:\nWhat will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?\nPrices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:\n--- \nTallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183\n--- \nAmsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186\n--- \nLisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 \nHence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.\nResolution:\n---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.\n------if only given a range, take the median. \n---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. \n---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:11.914Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:13.827Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62785,7 +61968,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:17.143Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:19.042Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 156,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62804,7 +61987,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&amp;KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:22.805Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:24.677Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 338,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62823,7 +62006,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:28.152Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:29.921Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62842,7 +62025,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:33.447Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:35.536Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62872,7 +62055,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:38.714Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:40.757Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62902,7 +62085,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:44.105Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:45.924Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62932,7 +62115,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:49.552Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:51.175Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62962,7 +62145,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:45:55.575Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:46:56.391Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 251,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -62992,7 +62175,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:00.851Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:01.722Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63022,7 +62205,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:06.353Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:07.072Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63052,7 +62235,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:11.588Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:12.291Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 237,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63071,7 +62254,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:16.881Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:17.607Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 125,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63101,7 +62284,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:22.070Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:22.912Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63120,7 +62303,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n---Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are three VOIs: B.1.526, B.1.525, and P.2. \n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429. \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are no VOHCs. \nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n---demonstrated failure of diagnostics \n---significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nOn what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?\nThis question will resolve as the date that a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page.\nIf no variant is classified as a VOHC before 1 January 2025, then this resolves as &gt; 31 December 2024.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:27.398Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:28.107Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63150,9 +62333,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:32.603Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:33.542Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 391,
+      "numforecasts": 394,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63169,7 +62352,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Bitcoin is the oldest cryptocurrency. After an [all time high of 64 805 USD](https://athcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin), the price has hovered around 35 000 USD for the last few months. Many speculations and allegations surround it, from Bitcoin [becoming the world's reserve currency](https://www.americanexpress.com/us/foreign-exchange/articles/is-global-digital-reserve-currency-on-horizon/) to [it being a Ponzi scheme](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/bitcoin-a-gimmick-and-resembles-a-ponzi-scheme-black-swan-author-.html).\nWhen will the price of Bitcoin first drop below 6481$, 10% of the all time high value?\nThe question resolves as the day that Kraken reports the [24 hour low](https://www.kraken.com/prices/btc-bitcoin-price-chart/usd-us-dollar?interval=24h) as a value lower than 6481.0 USD.\nIf Kraken is down, any of the following sources may be used as a substitute:\n[coinbase.com](http://coinbase.com)\n[bitfinex.com](http://bitfinex.com)\n[binance.com](http://binance.com)\nMetaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use an alternative source if none of the above are credible.\nThe date will be decided according to GMT. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:37.821Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:38.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63199,7 +62382,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:43.179Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:44.545Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63218,7 +62401,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \n\"Dozens of firms are developing cultivated chicken, beef and pork, with a view to slashing the impact of industrial livestock production on the climate and nature crises, as well as providing cleaner, drug-free and cruelty-free meat. Currently, about 130 million chickens are slaughtered every day for meat, and 4 million pigs. By weight, 60% of the mammals on earth are livestock, 36% are humans and only 4% are wild.\"\nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product.\nHow many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?\nThis question resolves as the number of countries who have approved the commercial sale of at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption before January 1, 2023.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\nCultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:48.794Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:49.813Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 85,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63248,7 +62431,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:46:53.981Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:47:55.026Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 18,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63278,7 +62461,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:04.993Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:05.699Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 295,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63308,7 +62491,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:10.198Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:10.894Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63338,9 +62521,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:15.730Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:16.390Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 180,
+      "numforecasts": 181,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63357,7 +62540,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:20.944Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:21.637Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 68,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63387,7 +62570,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:26.389Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:26.954Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 260,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63417,7 +62600,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:31.659Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:32.255Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 47,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63436,7 +62619,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:36.951Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:37.511Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 172,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63455,7 +62638,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:42.208Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:42.694Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 293,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63474,7 +62657,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:47.506Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:47.851Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 133,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63493,7 +62676,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:52.753Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:53.083Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 460,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63506,44 +62689,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:47:58.025Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 240,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:03.323Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 36,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
@@ -63561,9 +62706,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:08.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:48:58.928Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 195,
+      "numforecasts": 196,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63574,13 +62719,51 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:04.126Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 240,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:09.334Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 36,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.\nA promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)\nThere are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.\nNonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.\nWhen will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? \nThe organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:14.138Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:14.530Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63599,9 +62782,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.\n“Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.\nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:19.375Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:19.772Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 130,
+      "numforecasts": 149,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63618,7 +62801,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Nobel Prizes](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/) are awarded each Autumn in Peace, Literature, Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine &amp; Physiology, or some of those categories.\nAccomplishments relating to global pandemics may be recognized in any appropriate category. Prize citations in Medicine have cited discoveries [of human immunodeficiency virus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2008/montagnier/facts/) and [of Hepatitis C](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2020/summary/). Peace Prizes, too, have been awarded for health measures such as combating the hunger pandemic.\nTo determine the contribution to mankind most crucial to an Award, one reads the \"Prize Citations\". So, [the 2020](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2020/summary/) Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded jointly to Harvey J. Alter, Michael Houghton and Charles M. Rice \"for the discovery of Hepatitis C virus.\"\nThe Nobel Committee may formally recognize a contribution to humanity years after the work was done; Dr. Luc Montagnier was recognized in 2008 for HIV work from 1983.\nWhen will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?\nQuestion shall resolve positive when the Nobel Committee directly mentions COVID19 (by using any of its recognizable names) in a Prize Citation read aloud at a Nobel ceremony and made public in writing in any language (e.g., Swedish, Norwegian, or English).\nSpecial Citations and other out-of-category Awards can satisfy the resolution criteria; invitations to make [presentations](https://www.nobelprize.org/the-nobel-prize-organisation/outreach-activities/), accolades in historical retrospectives, and [prizes awarded in \"Economic Sciences\"](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/themes/the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-in-economic-sciences-in-memory-of-alfred-nobel-1969-2007-2) will not.\nResolution may occur early, if a Prize that satisfies the above criteria has actually been awarded. (Prizes are typically awarded in the calendar year of an announcement, but [not always](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1942/).) However, the Laureate may refuse the prize money, or may miss a scheduled ceremony, without affecting resolution.\nAn award in 2046 of a Prize denominated as \"the 2045 Prize\" (or any other time-bending oddity) will resolve the question to the later year.\nA decision by the Nobel Committee to withhold a Prize (e.g., for plagiarism) may be considered by admins in determining whether to resolve the question some other way.\n\"&gt;2046\" shall be the resolution if the Resolve Date arrives before early resolution has become appropriate.\nIn the event of uncertainty, admins may look to [an authoritative expert](https://www.nobelprize.org/frequently-asked-questions/#par0). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:25.072Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:25.033Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63637,7 +62820,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:30.257Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:30.245Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 170,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63656,7 +62839,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) and the author of 2012's “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”\nOn April 8th, 2021, Nate [stated](https://youtu.be/O1mu6AguEZQ?t=128): \"I guess I can't formally announce this new book yet because we haven't signed the contract yet, but I've had encouraging conversations with my agent and publisher and have a strong inkling for the direction I want to go for my second book.\"\nWhen will Nate Silver release his 2nd book?\nThe first date on which a book authored primarily or solely by Nate Silver is officially released (i.e. available in bookstores or shipped to public customers for the first time).\nThis will likely be resolved via the release date shown on [Amazon US](https://www.amazon.com/), but may resolve earlier if there is evidence that the book will be shipped earlier via some other method available to the entire public (i.e. directly via a website credibly linked to Nate Silver).\nPre-sale dates, pre-release contests not available to everyone in the public, or the like will not count toward resolution. This question will not resolve until the date of release has arrived and there is no evidence of any delay in the release date.\nChapters or similar contributions written by Silver in a book or other medium where he is not the sole author will not count toward resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:35.973Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:35.450Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63675,7 +62858,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.\nAmong the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.\nThat being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).\nIn order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).\nWhen will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?\nResolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:41.159Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:40.652Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63705,7 +62888,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:47.914Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:45.815Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 30,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63718,36 +62901,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.11,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.89,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:53.103Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 107,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/",
@@ -63765,9 +62918,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:48:58.322Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:51.082Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 73,
+      "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63778,13 +62931,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.11,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.89,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:49:56.379Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 107,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:04.056Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:01.756Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 342,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63803,7 +62986,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for &lt; $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for &lt; $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:09.388Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:07.238Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63822,9 +63005,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2021, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on Mars. With a weight of 1,025kg and a budget of $2.2 Billion dollars, this equates to a cost of $2.1M/kg.\nThe cost to deliver a payload to Mars is relevant to many questions, in particular [\"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)\nVarious estimates for future systems have been proposed. For example, in one presentation SpaceX claimed a [cost](https://handwiki.org/wiki/Unsolved:Space_elevator_economics) of $140/kg to the surface of Mars is achievable.\nHow much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?\nWhat will be the lowest cost (in 2020 US Dollars/Kg) to deliver a payload to the surface of Mars from the surface of Earth?\nThis question will resolve to the cost (payload mass divided by mission budget) of the lowest-cost mission that successfully lands of the surface of Mars, from now until the end of 2075, according to credible media reporting. Or, if delivery of payloads to Mars is a commercially available service, on the lowest commercially available price prior to 2075.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:14.730Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:12.391Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
+      "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-21T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63852,9 +63035,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:20.224Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:17.561Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 428,
+      "numforecasts": 430,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63871,7 +63054,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:25.523Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:23.560Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 147,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63890,7 +63073,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:30.793Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:28.756Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 371,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63920,9 +63103,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:36.195Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:34.123Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 1437,
+      "numforecasts": 1454,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -63939,7 +63122,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:41.373Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:39.327Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63969,7 +63152,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:47.075Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:44.718Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -63999,7 +63182,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:52.251Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:49.876Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64018,7 +63201,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "To have a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050. \nReflecting this, many countries have set long-term targets for their greenhouse gas emissions. These targets can be for carbon dioxide emissions only, or for all greenhouse gases. In the latter case, the global warming potential of other gases is converted into its \"carbon dioxide equivalent\", or CO2-e. \nThese targets can also be for zero emissions (typically in a particular sector, like electricity) or for net-zero emissions. In the latter case, emissions can be offset against a drawdown of emissions, e.g. from the CO2 absorbed by growing trees. \nWhile Australia's federal government is yet to commit to a net-zero target, its Prime Minister Scott Morrison has begun talking [about how it could be achieved](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/scott-morrison-australia-inner-city-net-zero-emissions-biden/100080402). [All Australian states and territories ](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-target-climate-summit-president-thanks-australian-states-but-not-morrison-government) already have net-zero by 2050 or earlier targets. \nAustralia's current target is a [26-28% reduction by 2030 on 2005 levels](https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf).\nAustralia's emissions in the year ending September 2020 [were 510 million tonnes of CO2](https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-september-2020). Historical details are available at the same source.\nWhat will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050?\nThis question resolves as the net CO2-e in million metric tonnes that Australia emits in the calendar year 2050.\nIf the area of Australia changes by more than 20% or Australia ceases to exist as a country the answer will instead be calculated based on emissions on what is the geographical bounds of Australia in 2020. \nCurrent UN accounting methods do not include [pollution from national disturbances](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/21/summers-bushfires-released-more-carbon-dioxide-than-australia-does-in-a-year). If they are included in 2050 accounting methods (Australian or world-standard) without any smoothing or averaging adjustment, then the average of emissions for the years 2045 to 2050 can be used to avoid a one-off natural disaster in 2050 throwing out the figure.\nCO2-e sold to or bought from other countries as offsets will not affect this figure. E.g. if Australia has 100 million tonnes of CO2-e emissions, but buys 100 million tonnes of offsets, the total will still be 100 million tonnes.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:49:57.549Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:50:55.044Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64037,7 +63220,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $26 million to the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\" in 2020 and $22 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:02.845Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:00.213Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64067,7 +63250,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:08.013Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:05.419Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 10,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64086,7 +63269,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Autonomous motorcycles have [already been built](https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0284901EN/bmw-motorrad-presents-autonomous-driving-bmw-r-1200-gs-outlook-on-the-future-of-motorcycle-safety-and-technology-in-miramas?language=en). Yamaha has even made an [autonomous racing motorcycle](https://global.yamaha-motor.com/design_technology/technology/motobot/) controlled by its own robotic rider. Other manufacturers have released [motorcycles with rider assist technology that could be used in future autonomous vehicles](https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/honda-introduces-riding-assist-e-self-balancing-electric-motorcycle/).\nCould there be a market for such vehicles? The market for autonomous vehicles globally in 2019 reached [$54 billion](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/autonomous-vehicle-market). Road-legal motorcycle sales in the USA in 2019 surpassed [300,000 units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/252264/us-motorcycle-salesin-units-by-type/). With these data, the future possibility of an autonomous motorcycle market in the USA can be taken seriously.\nWhen will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?\nThis question resolves positive when a road-legal motorcycle with autonomous driving capability and intended to carry at least one human is able to be purchased in the United States.\nAutonomous driving capability is defined as the ability of the motorcycle to do the following without any rider intervention on the controls:\n1) Accelerate from a stop and reach a speed of at least 60 mph. If necessary, the rider is allowed to move their feet from the motorcycle to the ground and vice versa in order to stay upright at a stop.\n2) Decelerate from at least 60 mph to a complete stop.\n3) Lateral acceleration of at least .5G or approximately 27* of lean angle measured from the contact patch through the center of mass of bike and rider, under good conditions. \n4) Recognize and obey traffic control devices well enough to conduct a trip of at least 5 miles consisting of at least one full stop, one right turn, one left turn, and a top speed of at least 45 mph. \nMotorcycle is a two wheeled motorized vehicle. Road-legal means the vehicle is authorized by all relevant authorities the full use of all public roads and highways of at least one US state.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:13.244Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:10.566Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64116,7 +63299,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:18.510Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:15.836Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64135,7 +63318,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on Russia detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Russian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:23.812Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:21.080Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64154,7 +63337,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is \"Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur.\" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?\nWhat will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:29.020Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:26.288Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64184,9 +63367,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:34.602Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:31.856Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 165,
+      "numforecasts": 167,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64214,7 +63397,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:39.850Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:37.074Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64233,7 +63416,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:45.156Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:42.328Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64252,7 +63435,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with &gt;30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:50.370Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:47.545Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 152,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64271,9 +63454,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. &amp; Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:50:55.562Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:52.742Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 216,
+      "numforecasts": 217,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64301,7 +63484,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:01.029Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:51:58.050Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 211,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64322,18 +63505,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.22,
+        "probability": 0.21,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.78,
+        "probability": 0.79,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:06.478Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:03.406Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 335,
+      "numforecasts": 337,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64361,9 +63544,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:11.738Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:08.590Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 20,
+      "numforecasts": 21,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64391,7 +63574,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:16.887Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:13.765Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64421,7 +63604,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:22.080Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:19.014Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 145,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64451,7 +63634,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:27.234Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:24.202Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 69,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64470,9 +63653,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:32.549Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:29.479Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 269,
+      "numforecasts": 289,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64500,7 +63683,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:37.741Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:34.810Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64530,7 +63713,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:43.046Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:39.990Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64549,7 +63732,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:48.365Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:45.177Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64579,7 +63762,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:53.684Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:50.409Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 197,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64598,7 +63781,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:51:58.967Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:52:55.597Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 145,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64628,7 +63811,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:04.400Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:01.174Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64647,7 +63830,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:09.667Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:06.715Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64666,7 +63849,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "While the Long-Term StockExchange opened in [September 2020](https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/the-long-term-stock-exchange-goes-live-exchange-offers-a-public-market-option/) for business at this point in time no company decided to incorporate under it's rules. \nWhen will the first company list on the exchange?\nWhen will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange?\nTwo reputable mainstream news sources report on a company starting being listed on the Long Term stockexchange (as opposed to planning to do so)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:20.044Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:17.140Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64685,7 +63868,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:26.326Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:22.362Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 395,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64715,7 +63898,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:36.864Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:32.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 193,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64745,7 +63928,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:42.085Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:38.271Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64775,7 +63958,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:47.374Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:43.625Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64805,9 +63988,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:52:52.601Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:48.956Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 24,
+      "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64824,7 +64007,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:03.116Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:53:59.826Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64854,7 +64037,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:13.639Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:10.273Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64873,7 +64056,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:18.822Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:15.494Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 76,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64892,9 +64075,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\nRelated questions:\n--- \n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \n[GWP in 2100, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \nGWP in 2100, in trillions of US$ - (this question)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:24.097Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:20.657Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 73,
+      "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64911,9 +64094,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently comes from [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/), a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder [Dustin Moskovitz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Moskovitz) and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$21.9bn](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=1d9ff1161dd3) as of June 2021. They donated $271 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) and $298 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their grants database. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose total grants for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous. \nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:29.450Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:26.348Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 48,
+      "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64930,7 +64113,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [concentrated animal feeding operation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation) (CAFO) is an intensive animal feeding operation in which over 1000 animal units are confined for over 45 days a year. An animal unit is the equivalent of 1000 pounds of \"live\" animal weight. A thousand animal units equates to 700 dairy cows, 1000 meat cows, 2500 pigs weighing more than 55 pounds (25 kg), 10,000 pigs weighing under 55 pounds, 10,000 sheep, 55,000 turkeys, 125,000 chickens, or 82,000 egg laying hens or pullets. There were 21,465 CAFOs in the US in 2020, [according to the US Environmental Protection Agency](https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2021-05/documents/cafo_status_report_2020.pdf). This question asks when that number will decline by 90% (i.e, to 2,146 or fewer CAFOs in the US).\nWhen will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?\nThis question resolves to the date when the estimated number of CAFOs in the US declines to 2,146 or fewer, according to the EPA.\nThis exact date is to be arrived at by assuming a linear decline over the interim between published year end reports on [the EPA website.](https://www.epa.gov/npdes/npdes-cafo-regulations-implementation-status-reports). E.g. if there are 2,148 CAFOs in the year end 2025 report, and 2144 CAFOs as of year end 2026, it should resolve to 30th June 2026.\nIf the EPA ceases publishing such data, any other US government source approved by moderators should be used. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:34.713Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:31.522Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64949,7 +64132,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:40.219Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:36.732Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -64979,9 +64162,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:45.427Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:42.295Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 281,
+      "numforecasts": 282,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -64998,7 +64181,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.\nThis question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? \nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.\nResolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:50.577Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:47.502Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 153,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65028,7 +64211,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:53:55.937Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:52.822Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 268,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65058,7 +64241,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:01.282Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:54:58.002Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 302,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65088,7 +64271,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:06.463Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:03.318Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 184,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65118,7 +64301,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:11.683Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:08.482Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65148,7 +64331,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:16.857Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:13.697Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65178,7 +64361,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:22.027Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:18.950Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65191,36 +64374,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:27.343Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 136,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/",
@@ -65238,7 +64391,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:32.717Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:24.214Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65268,9 +64421,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:37.871Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:29.545Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 316,
+      "numforecasts": 317,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -65281,13 +64434,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have &lt; 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.38,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.62,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:34.795Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 96,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7127/7-day-avg-of-new-virginia-cases-on-1-august/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases there will be heading into the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on 1 August 2021 on the VDH [COVID-19 cases dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/).\nIf the number of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases exceeds 6000, this will resolve as &gt; 6k.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:43.084Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:41.026Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 241,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65300,36 +64483,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have &lt; 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:48.257Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 95,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
@@ -65347,7 +64500,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:53.880Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:46.226Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65366,7 +64519,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:54:59.387Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:51.490Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65396,7 +64549,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:05.691Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:55:56.689Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 270,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65415,7 +64568,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social &amp; diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:11.427Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:02.076Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 192,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65445,7 +64598,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:21.961Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:12.609Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65464,7 +64617,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on China detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by China by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by China includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Chinese-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by China by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:27.109Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:17.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65483,7 +64636,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Psilocybin is a Schedule I psychedelic drug in the US.\nPsilocybin has [low toxicity and a low harm potential](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21256914/). As of 2021, psilocybin-assisted therapy is or has been investigated for its potential for treating drug dependence, anxiety and mood disorders. FDA gave psilocybin-assisted therapy Breakthrough Therapy Designation [in 2018](https://compasspathways.com/compass-pathways-receives-fda-breakthrough-therapy-designation-for-psilocybin-therapy-for-treatment-resistant-depression/) (for treatment-resistant depression) and [in 2019](https://www.livescience.com/psilocybin-depression-breakthrough-therapy.html) (for major depressive disorder).\nIn 2020, Oregon [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Oregon_Ballot_Measure_110) the first US state to remove criminal penalties for possession of psilocybin. Also, [several cities](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States&amp;oldid=1028882880) in Colorado, Denver and California have decriminalized it in 2019-2021, and some legislators are [pushing](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States&amp;oldid=1028882880) to decriminalize it in New York, California, Vermont, New Jersey.\nHow many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027?\nThis question is resolved with the number of US states where psilocybin is decriminalized on 1st January, 2027.\nFor purposes of this question, psilocybin is deemed decriminalized in a state if its possession is de facto not prosecuted. This may happen, for example, via an act of state legislature, or via a non-enforcement policy. Federal-level changes also matter.\nIf possession of some small amount is decriminalized, but possession of psilocybin (or psilocybin-containing plants) above some mass threshold is a crime, it still counts as decriminalization.\nThe upper boundary is open to cover the case of new states being added to the union. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:32.772Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:22.967Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65513,7 +64666,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:37.981Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:28.371Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 352,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65543,7 +64696,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:43.222Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:33.562Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 228,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65562,7 +64715,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:48.454Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:38.733Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 122,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65575,13 +64728,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the US detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized US-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:44.008Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 23,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:15:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:15:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meats totalled $1.4 billion in 2020 ([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#category-sales)). This is up from around $962M in 2019 and $811M in 2018.\nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2021 analysis](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#segment-insights), the top-selling forms of plant-based meat are burgers, followed by sausage links and patties, then nuggets, tenders, and cutlets. The fastest-growing format was plant-based grounds, which more than doubled its size over the course of 2020.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based meat, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $811M in 2018, $962M in 2019, and $1.4B in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:54.027Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:49.265Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65594,32 +64766,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the US detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized US-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:55:59.202Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 22,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:15:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:15:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:04.424Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:54.421Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65638,7 +64791,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"&gt; Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:09.844Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:56:59.670Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 307,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65668,7 +64821,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:16.019Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:04.903Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65687,7 +64840,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:21.401Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:11.060Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 151,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65706,9 +64859,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:26.615Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:16.272Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 140,
+      "numforecasts": 143,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -65725,9 +64878,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on Pakistan detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Pakistan-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:32.098Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:21.447Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 46,
+      "numforecasts": 47,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -65744,7 +64897,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:38.720Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:26.703Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 288,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65774,9 +64927,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:45.130Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:32.146Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 389,
+      "numforecasts": 392,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -65804,7 +64957,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:50.463Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:37.360Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 379,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65834,7 +64987,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:56:55.673Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:42.589Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 202,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65853,7 +65006,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:02.259Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:47.814Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65872,7 +65025,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Casinos are currently legal in some (Indian reservations, Nevada) but not most parts of the US.\nWhen will the last US casino close?\nIf and when the last legal casino in the US closes, the question will resolve. Casinos on Indian reservations count for purposes of this question.\nIf future laws in part or all of the US change to make the legality of casinos ambiguous and the last operating casino is closed and found to be illegal by an act of a court, then for purposes of this question, the casino will be considered to have been legal up until the date on which the court decision is made. Retroactive court decisions will not be applied retroactively for purposes of this question.\nThis question has an upper decision boundary of New Years Day, 2300. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:07.443Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:53.012Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65891,9 +65044,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:12.624Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:57:58.221Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 116,
+      "numforecasts": 128,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -65910,7 +65063,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:17.853Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:03.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 234,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65929,7 +65082,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.\nCryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.\nChances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.\nI thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:\nWhat percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:23.305Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:08.958Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65959,7 +65112,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:28.507Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:14.148Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -65978,7 +65131,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/). Similarly, Dr. Chan, the WHO's former Director-General, [stated](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7217106/) unequivocally that: \nAntimicrobial resistance threatens the very core of modern medicine and the sustainability of an effective, global public health response to the enduring threat from infectious diseases.\nOne major source of antibiotic-resistant pathogens stems from use of antibiotics in animals raised for human consumption ([Landers et al., 2012](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3234384/), [Tang et al., 2018](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30141-9/fulltext?elsca1=tlxpr)).\nAccording to the CDC's [2019 Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States Report](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest-threats.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fdrugresistance%2Fbiggest_threats.html), at least 35,900 died from an antibiotic-resistant infection in 2019 in the United States.\nHow many annual deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will have been estimated by the CDC to occurred in 2021 in the US?\nThis question resolves on the basis of publications by the CDC, such as their Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States reports, or collaborative studies of the CDC with external researchers. In case these studies are not available, admin may resolve it as the median estimate of a credible study, or the median of median estimates of multiple credible studies.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:33.910Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:19.334Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66008,7 +65161,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:39.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:24.618Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 392,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66027,7 +65180,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=2019&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:45.457Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:29.812Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66057,7 +65210,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:52.088Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:34.996Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66087,9 +65240,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:57:57.235Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:40.244Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 18,
+      "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -66117,9 +65270,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:03.659Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:45.427Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 68,
+      "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -66136,7 +65289,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The complete genome of a Neanderthal has already been [sequenced](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12886). The noted geneticist and synthetic biologist [George Church](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)) suggests that Neanderthal de-extinction will become [technically possible](https://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/george-church-explains-how-dna-will-be-construction-material-of-the-future-a-877634.html) in the near future.\nWhen will a Neanderthal be born again?\nThis question will resolve at the time when a Neanderthal is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The question will resolve at that time to the date of the Neanderthal's birth. If this does not happen by the end of the given range, the question will resolve &gt; end date.\nThe revived specimen must have at least 90% of Neanderthal genome. An anatomically modern human spliced with a few Neanderthal genes will not resolve this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:09.005Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:50.662Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66166,7 +65319,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:14.202Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:58:55.902Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66196,9 +65349,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:19.382Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:01.191Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 120,
+      "numforecasts": 122,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -66226,7 +65379,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:24.971Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:06.383Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66239,36 +65392,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive &amp; developmental problems, liver &amp; kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.62,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.38,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:30.878Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 33,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
@@ -66286,9 +65409,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:36.193Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:11.678Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 313,
+      "numforecasts": 314,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -66299,13 +65422,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive &amp; developmental problems, liver &amp; kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.62,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.38,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:16.855Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 33,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nHow many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:41.836Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:22.539Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 167,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66335,7 +65488,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:47.451Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:27.736Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66354,7 +65507,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/). This question asks more specifically when such a war will occur, if it does occur by 2050. Taken together, these questions can inform our views on: \n--- \nHow much people today should prioritize reducing risks from nuclear war and certain other issues (such as possible biotechnology developments)\n--- \nWhich interventions would be most effective (for example, specific diplomatic efforts in the near-term vs working more slowly towards more lasting policy changes)\nIf there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?\nThis question resolves as the year that the US and Russia enter into a war, meaning the first calendar year in which the US and Russia collectively suffer at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other, as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nIf there is no war before 2050 between the US and Russia, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:52.701Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:32.940Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66367,36 +65520,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are &gt;= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.53,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.47,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:58:58.524Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 409,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
@@ -66414,7 +65537,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:03.979Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:38.132Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 279,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66433,7 +65556,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"&gt; Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:09.163Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:43.335Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66463,7 +65586,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:19.643Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:53.728Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66493,7 +65616,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:24.823Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T12:59:59.052Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66512,7 +65635,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:30.046Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:04.300Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66531,7 +65654,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:35.280Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:09.487Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 170,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66550,7 +65673,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:40.502Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:14.717Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66569,7 +65692,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supply of US dollars more than many other central banks without risk of inflation. This arrangement is a cornerstone of the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system). However, the use of the Chinese Yuan (renminbi) is growing quite rapidly. \nIn Q4 of 2020, according to [IMF Reports](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) US dollars were about 56.7% of all official foreign currency reserves.\nThis question will resolve to the percent of all Official Foreign Exchange Reserves held as Chinese Yuan as indicated in official IMF sources for Q4 of 2031.\nThe intent of this question in to assess if substantial change to the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) is anticipated by Q4 of 2031 on the part of Metaculus predictors.\nWhat Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the Official Currency Reserve held in Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031.\nThis question will be judged by looking at the updated version of [IMF COFER](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) and dividing claims in dollars by Total Foreign Currency Reserves.\nIf the IMF cease publishing official figures on COFER this quesion resolves as ambiguous. This question will include all Chinese currencies tracked as part of COFER by the IMF. Thus if the Yuan is replace by another currency the important figure is Chinese currencies included in COFER figures by the IMF. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:51.131Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:25.241Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 15,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66588,7 +65711,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T12:59:56.370Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:30.492Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 98,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66618,7 +65741,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:01.552Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:36.146Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 51,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66648,9 +65771,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:08.390Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:41.635Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 1021,
+      "numforecasts": 1043,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-03T07:05:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -66661,44 +65784,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:13.727Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 714,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7357/initial-jobless-claims-august-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 2, 2021 for the reference date August 28, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:19.114Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 102,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-24T01:02:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-03T01:02:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
@@ -66716,7 +65801,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:24.573Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:46.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 235,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66735,7 +65820,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n--- \nThe US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).\n--- \nAny year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.\nDefine the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.\nWe divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .\nWhat will be this depression's relative severity ?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:29.784Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:52.207Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 153,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66765,7 +65850,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:34.994Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:00:57.436Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 389,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66784,7 +65869,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:40.119Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:02.744Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66803,7 +65888,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Migrant crossings at the southern border have [been the highest in at least the last decade](https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/11/southern-border-crossings-hit-record-levels-last-month---but-surge-slowing-down/?sh=4752883b77b9) in recent months. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 180,034 border encounters at the southwest land border in May, the largest number reported [since April in 2000](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57422618).\nCBP defines land border encounters as follows:\nUS Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible Volumes, and Title 42 Expulsions by Fiscal Year (FY)\nMore information on these encounter types can be found at the [CBP website](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/title-8-and-title-42-statistics).\nIn March of 2020 the reporting methodology changed to include Title 42 expulsions due to the issuance of a new order from the CDC. [Due to COVID-19 and public health concerns](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/how-the-trump-administration-is-using-covid-19-to-continue-its-border-deterrence-efforts/), the new order granted increased authority to border officials to expel immigrants who did not have prior authorization for entry. Previously the metric appeared to have tracked apprehensions and inadmissibles (see an [archive of the CBP page and data from January of 2020 here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200101014739/https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration)).\nHow many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?\nThe question will resolve as the total number of \"Southwest Land Border Encounters\" [as reported by CBP](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters) for the month of July in 2021.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:45.383Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:08.172Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66833,7 +65918,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:00:50.632Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:13.411Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66863,7 +65948,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:06.442Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:29.323Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 567,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66882,7 +65967,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), \"the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,\" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is \"an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).\"\nWhile the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.\nWhat will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:11.581Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:34.529Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66901,7 +65986,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:16.763Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:39.815Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 143,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66920,7 +66005,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:22.610Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:50.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 336,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66939,7 +66024,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:28.208Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:01:56.210Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 123,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -66958,9 +66043,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:33.446Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:01.576Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 71,
+      "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -66988,7 +66073,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:38.665Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:06.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67007,7 +66092,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Throughout his campaigns and Presidency, Donald Trump commanded extraordinary public interest. As of summer 2021, Trump maintains an unusually large public profile as an ex-President, and is widely acknowledged as the single most influential figure for Republican party voters. His Google Trends results reflect this; since Biden's Inauguration Day, [Trump and Biden's average Google search volumes have kept pace.](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2021-01-20%202021-06-14&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F0cqt90)\nWhat will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?\nAfter September 30th 2022, Google Trends will be queried for the United States during the period July 1st 2022 to September 30th 2022 and the topics \"Joe Biden (46th U.S. president)\" and \"Donald Trump (45th U.S. president)\". This question will resolve as the ratio of Biden's to Trump's average interest scores over that period. For example, if this question had been asked for [Q3 2020](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2020-07-01%202020-09-30&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F0cqt90), it would have resolved as 11:33 or 0.3&#x305;.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:43.945Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:12.154Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67026,7 +66111,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:54.580Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:22.554Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 148,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67056,7 +66141,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:01:59.892Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:27.859Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 195,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67086,7 +66171,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:05.318Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:33.121Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 149,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67116,7 +66201,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:10.604Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:38.385Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 363,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67146,7 +66231,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:16.057Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:43.762Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67176,7 +66261,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:21.634Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:02:49.040Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 369,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67195,7 +66280,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Compared to 2019, [in 2020](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/11/quantum-venture-funding-dipped-12-in-2020-but-quantum-investments-rose-46/) there were 46% more venture capital deals for quantum computing startups; however, the total amount raised in the sector fell 12% to $365 million. Since 2015, the funding amount (in million US dollars) have been:\n---2015: $73 \n---2016: $39 \n---2017: $287 \n---2018: $116 \n---2019: $417 \n---2020: $365 \nWhat will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total amount of venture capital funding in quantum computing in 2022, in million US dollars, according to data from crunchbase or other sources of venture capital and angel investment financing information.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:37.817Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:00.346Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67214,7 +66299,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:43.441Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:05.607Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67235,18 +66320,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.4,
+        "probability": 0.39,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6,
+        "probability": 0.61,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:48.763Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:10.993Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 116,
+      "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67274,9 +66359,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:54.089Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:16.210Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 326,
+      "numforecasts": 327,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67293,7 +66378,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making &gt;22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:02:59.275Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:21.835Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67323,7 +66408,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:04.580Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:27.023Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67353,9 +66438,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:10.367Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:32.202Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 192,
+      "numforecasts": 193,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-07T06:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67383,7 +66468,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:15.577Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:37.393Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67402,7 +66487,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&amp;IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:20.918Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:42.774Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 444,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67432,7 +66517,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:26.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:48.058Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67462,9 +66547,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:31.306Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:53.290Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 59,
+      "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67492,7 +66577,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:37.097Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:03:59.230Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 201,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67522,7 +66607,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:42.586Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:04.442Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67552,7 +66637,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:47.873Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:09.638Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 496,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67582,7 +66667,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:53.154Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:14.953Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 178,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67612,7 +66697,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:03:58.436Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:20.430Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 245,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67633,18 +66718,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.8,
+        "probability": 0.75,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+        "probability": 0.25,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:03.716Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:25.791Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 308,
+      "numforecasts": 337,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-30T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67672,7 +66757,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:08.945Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:31.517Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 261,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67702,7 +66787,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:14.238Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:37.138Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 339,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67732,7 +66817,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:19.442Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:42.385Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67751,7 +66836,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:24.805Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:48.287Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 328,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67781,7 +66866,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:30.240Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:53.476Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67800,7 +66885,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2018, the US plant based milk market [grew 20%](https://www.plantbasedfoods.org/marketplace/retail-sales-data-2018/), while the cow's milk market for retail dropped 6%. With regards to retail sales, the US plant based milk market saw a 5% increase in sales between 2018 and 2019, compared to just 0.1% for dairy sales. Total US market value for plant based milk as of September 2020, according to SPINS data, was 2.362 billion dollars. This trend is expected to continue with an estimated global [CAGR at 11%](https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/plant-milk-market) between 2020 and 2026. \nUsing data from SPINS, the Plant Based Food Association and the Good Food Institute estimates that the retail market share for plant based milk across all retail milk sales was [13.9% in 2019, and 15.2% in 2020.](https://www.plantbasedfoods.org/marketplace/retail-sales-data/)\nWhat retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022\nThis question will resolve as the retail market share of the US market for plant-based milk out of the complete milk category, in 2022, as estimated by credible retail data companies, such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2022 compared with the SPINS data, as available in 2020. It is to be considered to be substantially is, when using the new methodology, estimates of the share of the market (13.3% in 2018, 13.9% in 2019 and 15.2% in 2020) changes by more than ±5 pp.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:35.684Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:04:59.165Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67819,9 +66904,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Our World In Data claims that in 2015, 55.8% of people [lived in a democracy](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). From OWID: \nDuring the 19th century, most of the world’s population lived in colonial empires, autocracies, or anocracies. The late 19th century saw a limited expansion of democracies. And since that time, there has been a general upward trend in the share of the world population living under democracies, save for the period before and during World War II.\nDuring the second half of the 20th century, colonies gained independence and more countries became democracies. Today, more than half the world’s population live in a democracy. And of those [23.23%] who still live in autocracies, four-fifths are Chinese. \nThis question asks how this data will look for 2040.\nWhat fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?\nThis question will resolve to the fraction of people Our World In Data considers to be living in a democracy as of 2040. If OWID no longer exists or no longer publishes a value for this question, admins may choose a credible alternative data source.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:41.580Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:04.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 32,
+      "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67849,7 +66934,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:47.712Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:10.249Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67868,7 +66953,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:52.934Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:15.462Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67887,7 +66972,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). \nWe might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) \"[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).\nWhen will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:04:58.716Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:20.715Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 86,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67906,9 +66991,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:04.100Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:26.662Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 539,
+      "numforecasts": 542,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67936,7 +67021,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:09.559Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:31.886Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 398,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -67966,9 +67051,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:14.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:37.102Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 250,
+      "numforecasts": 251,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -67985,7 +67070,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&amp;P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:20.033Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:42.507Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 234,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68015,7 +67100,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:25.253Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:47.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 138,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68034,9 +67119,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 25 April 2021, [Google mobility data](https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-04-25_US_Virginia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf) indicates that mobility trends for workplaces are -13% below baseline.\nWhen will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia?\nThis question resolves on the basis of when the first [Google Mobility report](https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/) is released that finds that mobility trends for \"workplaces\" is at or above baseline.\nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2023, it resolves as &gt; 31 July 2023.\nThis question retroactively closes to when the -2% below baseline is reached.\n29 April 2021 edit: changed from -15% below baseline level to baseline level.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:30.441Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:53.046Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 230,
+      "numforecasts": 232,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68053,7 +67138,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of July, which will be released in early August. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:35.660Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:05:58.199Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68083,7 +67168,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:41.357Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:03.818Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 66,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68113,7 +67198,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:46.581Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:08.988Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 119,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68132,7 +67217,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:51.803Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:14.186Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68151,7 +67236,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n1--There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n2--Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n3--Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n4--It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \nNote that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:05:57.166Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:19.511Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 438,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68181,7 +67266,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:02.381Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:24.679Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 128,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68200,7 +67285,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:07.581Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:29.889Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 195,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68230,7 +67315,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:12.748Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:35.172Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 166,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68249,7 +67334,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.\nThis question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:18.025Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:40.433Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68279,9 +67364,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:23.177Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:45.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 161,
+      "numforecasts": 165,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68298,7 +67383,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 3,230 new confirmed+probable hospitalizations were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 hospitalization data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:28.386Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:51.180Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68317,7 +67402,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. \nAs [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:\n“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” \nForecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. \nOn what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:33.659Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:06:56.370Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68336,7 +67421,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \"&gt;10^16\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:39.021Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:01.629Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 143,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68349,25 +67434,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:44.232Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 34,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:31:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
@@ -68385,9 +67451,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:49.578Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:06.922Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 269,
+      "numforecasts": 270,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68398,13 +67464,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:12.160Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 34,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:31:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nHere, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:06:55.213Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:17.352Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68423,7 +67508,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The border between Canada and the United States of America closed March 21st, 2020 for non-essential travel because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The border closure has since been extended several times, and it is currently unclear when the border will re-open.\nThis is an update of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/).\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel in both directions.\nA requirement that travelers present proof of COVID-19 vaccination or a negative test will not prevent this question from resolving positively, and neither will a requirement for a quarantine while waiting for a negative test result (e.g., 2 days).\nA requirement of a quarantine upon arrival longer than the time required (e.g., 14 days) to get a negative test result will prevent the question from resolving positively. Also, \"open\" must include to all means of transport. \nBy this definition, the border is closed in both directions as of April 23rd, 2021, because Canadians wishing to enter the U.S. must do so by plane and Americans cannot enter Canada. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:00.981Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:23.069Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 108,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68442,7 +67527,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technologies in which carbon dioxide is captured and either used or stored long-term to stop it from contributing to global warming. \nCCS is expected to play a role if the world is successful in limiting global warming. Specifically, the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario models 5,635 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of CCS by 2050. \nHowever, CCS has been lacklustre so far. All large-scale CCS projects together have only 40 Mtpa of capacity, and the pipeline of large-scale CCS projects is smaller now than it was in 2011. CCS projects attached to electricity generation, in particular, have failed in recent years ([Kemper County](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/we-cant-let-kemper-slow-the-progress-of-carbon-capture-and-storage) and [Petra Nova](https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063714297)). \nWe are counting capacity, the amount that the projects could capture, not the amount that they actually capture in the given year. However, to qualify as a large-scale CCS project, the project has to actually capture 0.4-0.8 million tonnes per annum. Once it reaches that threshold its entire capacity, used or unused, counts towards the total.\nThis year's [Global Status of CCS report](https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/global-status-report/) from the Global CCS Institute has more details and provided the stats used in this background.\nWhat will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030?\nWhat will the Global CCS Institute identify as the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 2030?\nIf there is a figure reported for 2030, that figure will be used. Otherwise if a figure can be calculated from a database of large-scale CCS projects maintained by the Global CCS Institute, that will be used. \nIf the Global CCS Institute ceases to exist or has not reported a figure for 2030 by 30 June 2031, or if its methodology is shown to have changed significantly from its current practice, a total can be calculated based on the criteria below: \nThe total capacity of all projects that actually captured at least 0.8 million tonnes of CO2 (for coal projects) or 0.4 million tonnes of CO2 (for other projects) in 2030. \nThe storage can be done by a different project, but it must actually take place (capturing CO2 but then releasing it into the atmosphere does not count). \nNote that the Global CCS Institute is not so strict about applying the 0.4/0.8 Mtpa cut-off, so if Metaculans do need to calculate the total themselves it may end up a bit lower than the Institute's total would have. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:06.184Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:28.377Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 30,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68461,7 +67546,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),\nThe marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.\nThe best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.\nThese two Metaculus questions are relevant:\n[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)\n[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)\nAlso see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)\nThis question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:11.371Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:33.534Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68480,7 +67565,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:16.533Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:38.744Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68499,7 +67584,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On 25 January 2021 President Biden signed a [proclamation](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/presidential-proclamation-coronavirus.html#ExternalPopup) continuing the suspension of entry of certain travellers from the Schengen Area, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, Brazil, and expanding restrictions to include travellers from South Africa. The ban prohibits foreign nationals from entering the United States if they have been physically present in the U.K. within 14 days before their attempted entry. U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, [certain family members](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/presidential-proclamation-coronavirus.html#ExternalPopup) and foreign diplomats are exempt.\nOn 8 June 2021, [a White House official indicated](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-forming-working-groups-how-lift-key-travel-restrictions-2021-06-08/?fbclid=IwAR0YuMfX60g7Z52ukfBAXelt4y8JgkWrW1tH0znkrRYYAaDvpIm4CdHmjeQ) that it would be forming expert working groups with Canada, Mexico, the European Union and the U.K. to determine how best to safely restart travel after 15 months of pandemic restrictions.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?\nThe issuance of an official declaration from the White House which indicates that the restrictions on travel from the U.K. as codified in the [Presidential Proclamation](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/presidential-proclamation-coronavirus.html#ExternalPopup) no longer apply will be considered for resolution.\nKey resolution details:\n---The resolution date will be the date the restrictions are lifted, not the date the issuance is made. \n---If the proclamation remains in place but exemptions are added such that &gt;50% of the U.K. population are exempt at the time of the issuance (e.g. a vaccine passport), this will trigger a positive resolution. \n---This question does not consider whether the U.K. will allow travel from the U.S. (e.g. if the U.K. government puts the US on its ‘[green list](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/red-amber-and-green-list-rules-for-entering-england)’). \nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the U.K. before 2022, then this resolves as “&gt; Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:21.686Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:43.936Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68518,7 +67603,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"&gt; 2025-12-31\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:26.982Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:49.212Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 127,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68539,18 +67624,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.2,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8,
+        "probability": 0.85,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:32.391Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:54.434Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 54,
+      "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68578,7 +67663,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:37.561Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:07:59.676Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 199,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68597,7 +67682,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf long-term future is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:42.770Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:04.868Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 18,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68616,7 +67701,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "OpenAI's [DALL-E](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/) was revealed on Jan 5 2021. It is a transformer trained on a multimodal dataset including text and images. It has 12 billion parameters.\nThe more famous GPT-3 has essentially the same architecture, but was trained only on text, and has 175 billion parameters.\nWhen will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?\nThe date this question is interested in is the date the existence of the model becomes publicly known. Resolution by credible media report.\n(As an aside, I'd love to make the question be about when the model is actually built, rather than when it is known of, but that's a lot harder to resolve because OpenAI typically doesn't reveal training completion dates.)\nHere is some more detail on what \"something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger\" means:\n--- \nThe model must be trained on images and text, though it can also be trained on other things\n--- \nThe model must be able to generate images given text descriptions, or images given text+images.\n--- \nThe model must have at least 50 billion parameters. Mixture-of-Experts models don't count; they instead should be thought of as a group of several smaller models.\nThis question closes retroactively the day before the model's existence first becomes known, in the sense described above.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:48.001Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:10.374Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68646,7 +67731,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:53.181Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:15.666Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 132,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68665,9 +67750,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:07:58.389Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:20.837Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 38,
+      "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68684,7 +67769,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:03.633Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:26.029Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68714,7 +67799,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:08.875Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:31.402Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 2107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68733,7 +67818,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supply of US dollars more than many other central banks without risk of inflation. This arrangement is a cornerstone of the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) \nIn Q4 of 2020, according to [IMF Reports](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) US dollars were about 56.7% of all official foreign currency reserves.\nThis question will resolve to the percent of all Official Foreign Exchange Reserves held as US Dollars as indicated in official IMF sources for Q4 of 2031.\nThe intent of this question in to assess if substantial change to the Bretton Woods System is anticipated by Q4 of 2031 on the part of Metaculus predictors.\nWhat Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the Official Currency Reserve held in US dollars in Q4 of 2031.\nThis question will be judged by looking at the updated version of [IMF COFER](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) and dividing claims in dollars by Total Foreign Currency Reserves.\nIf the IMF cease publishing official figures on COFER this quesion resolves as ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:14.369Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:36.557Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 23,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68752,9 +67837,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:25.674Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:42.439Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 223,
+      "numforecasts": 224,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68771,7 +67856,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:31.057Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:08:53.011Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68801,7 +67886,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:41.729Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:03.519Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 259,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68820,7 +67905,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. \nBy the end of 2019, 55 announced early-stage companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nSo far, cultivated meat production facilities have not seen commercial scale. That said, plans are under way:\n--- \nIn August 2019, BlueNalu [released a five-stage commercialization strategy](https://www.bluenalu.com/pr-82219) that calls for moving the company from pilot-scale research and development to facilities with 150,000 square feet of food production space and the capacity to make 18 million pounds (~8,000 metric tons) of finished cultivated seafood products per year\n--- \nIn September 2020 Mosa Meat's head of operations [announced](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/09/25/How-will-Mosa-Meat-spend-its-latest-55m-injection) that they will be scaling all the way up to a 200L bioreactor capable of producing 100kg of cultured burgers for each 200L production line.\nWhat will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products, according to credible reports. \nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the cultivated meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. For a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nThe production process may involve any medium, such as scaffolding techniques, cultivators or bioreactors. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:47.135Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:08.814Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 104,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68850,9 +67935,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:52.433Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:14.136Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 125,
+      "numforecasts": 131,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -68880,7 +67965,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:08:57.589Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:19.349Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 101,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68899,7 +67984,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:02.754Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:24.624Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68918,7 +68003,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:08.098Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:30.074Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 338,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68948,7 +68033,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:13.313Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:35.389Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68967,7 +68052,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Forbes Magazine, in an [article last year](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/11/13/the-highest-paid-dead-celebrities-of-2020/), mentioned\n---Marilyn Monroe (d. 1962) \n---Charles Schulz (20th year) \n---\"Dr. Seuss\" (oldest) (20th year) \n---Elvis Presley (20th year) \n---John Lennon (20th year) \n---George Harrison \n---Freddie Mercury \n---Bob Marley \n---Arnold Palmer \n---Kobe Bryant \n---the musician known as \"Prince\" \n---young \"Juice WRLD\" (1998-2019) and \n---Michael Jackson \nThey were listed in ascending order from Marilyn ($8 million USD) to Michael ($48 million USD). Wrote Forbes:\nOur annual list of the top-earning dead celebrities measures pretax income from October 1, 2019 through October 1, 2020.\n[Similar lists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes%27_list_of_the_world%27s_highest-paid_dead_celebrities) were published annually, since 2001.\nIf Forbes publishes such a list for 2021, we ask:\nWhen Forbes calculates the highest FY2021 earnings for these 13 celebrities, how much will be earned by the highest earner (in millions of USD)?\nAny icon on the 2021 list who is not listed above will be ignored. The question will resolve as the highest 2021 earnings of any of the icons listed above.\nIf none of those names appears on the 2021 list, the question will resolve as one-million dollars less than the 2021 earnings of the lowest earner on the 2021 list.\nFor reference: Michael Jackson has topped the most annual lists, followed by Elvis Presley (pre-2010). Charles Schulz is typically in the top 5 with earnings in the 20-50 range.\nActor James Dean was listed in 2001 with $3 million, less than any icon on the list that year or any year.\nFor income numbers, if \"millions of US dollars\" is not explicitly written, it is implied. Words such as \"income\" and \"earnings\" are interchangeable on this page.\nOn 4 May 2022, if Forbes has not published a similar list for FY21, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nAdmins in their discretion may resolve the question as ambiguous if the 2021 list uses a different currency or if it isn't based on a fiscal year. Otherwise, Forbes' calculations shall be conclusive, regardless of methodology.\nForbes' methodology:\nWe compile our numbers with the help of data from MRC Data, IMDbPro, NPD BookScan and interviews with industry insiders. Fees for agents, managers and lawyers are not deducted.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:18.579Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:40.883Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -68997,7 +68082,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:23.753Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:46.404Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 198,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69027,7 +68112,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:29.449Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:51.624Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 197,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69046,7 +68131,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&amp;text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:34.685Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:09:56.806Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 182,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69065,9 +68150,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for September 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:39.857Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:02.028Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 48,
+      "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -69084,7 +68169,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: \n“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” \nBeisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). \n[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. \nWhat will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:45.105Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:07.272Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69103,7 +68188,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:50.847Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:12.473Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 104,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69122,7 +68207,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:09:56.074Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:17.662Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 179,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69152,7 +68237,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:01.597Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:22.919Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 213,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69171,7 +68256,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:06.915Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:28.213Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69190,7 +68275,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:12.292Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:33.398Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69209,7 +68294,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was \"disgusted\" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are \"[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).\"\nWhen will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?\nThis question resolves when the letters in question are made public.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:17.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:38.600Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69228,7 +68313,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.\nIn 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.\nQuestion: When will the JWST be launched?\nThis resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) through [any other mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch). The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called \"JWST\", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for &gt;90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.\n[This closed binary question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/613/will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020/) asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.\n[This still open question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/) asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:22.629Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:43.850Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 233,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69258,9 +68343,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:27.815Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:49.177Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 366,
+      "numforecasts": 367,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -69277,7 +68362,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:33.375Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:10:54.942Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69296,7 +68381,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).\nHowever, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).\nHow will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?\nThe question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) \nThis question will resolve specifically according to the \"% change 2019-2020\" for the row \"Total new STI diagnoses - total\". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.\nIf this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:39.424Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:00.193Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69315,7 +68400,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Tesla has been aggressive in their moves to build lower priced vehicles. This question is meant to estimate just how far this may go by 2030.\nWhat will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the lowest [MSRP](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_price) of a street legal, 4 wheel, enclosed vehicle,capable of carrying at least 2 people sold in the US by Tesla as a new, 2030 vehicle in terms of 2021 dollars. Inflation adjustment should be handled by BLS CPI inflation calculator found [here](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm)\nParticipants should post links to official [Tesla Motors](http://tesla.com) that mention MSRP for judge's consideration. Judge's are only under obligation to identify the lowest MSRP among links posted here.\nNote: if the vehicle requires a subscription service to be operated the judges may impute a cash equivalent MSRP using their best judgment. However, the vehicle must be available for dedicated use by the buyer. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:44.600Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:05.542Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 30,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69334,7 +68419,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:49.861Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:10.767Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69353,7 +68438,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:10:55.201Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:16.007Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69372,7 +68457,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:00.462Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:21.179Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 212,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69391,7 +68476,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:11.412Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:31.771Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 180,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69421,7 +68506,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:16.555Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:37.016Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69440,7 +68525,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:21.732Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:42.210Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69470,7 +68555,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:26.958Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:47.410Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 123,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69489,7 +68574,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:32.213Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:52.616Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69508,7 +68593,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:38.089Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:11:57.840Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 127,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69527,7 +68612,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:43.333Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:03.138Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69546,7 +68631,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.\nWhat will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?\nWhen the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.\nAs of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.\nIf the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:48.545Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:08.469Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69576,7 +68661,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:53.793Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:14.191Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 182,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69595,7 +68680,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:11:59.490Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:19.404Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 81,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69614,7 +68699,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:04.679Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:24.877Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69633,9 +68718,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:09.875Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:30.063Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 337,
+      "numforecasts": 338,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -69663,9 +68748,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:15.179Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:35.327Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 796,
+      "numforecasts": 798,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -69682,7 +68767,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:20.382Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:40.606Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 254,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69701,7 +68786,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:26.556Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:46.064Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 207,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69731,7 +68816,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:32.094Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:51.399Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 139,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69761,7 +68846,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:37.335Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:12:56.708Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69774,6 +68859,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:01.991Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 241,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/",
@@ -69791,7 +68895,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:42.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:07.238Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69821,7 +68925,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:47.787Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:12.958Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69834,25 +68938,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:53.407Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 238,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/",
@@ -69870,7 +68955,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:12:59.517Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:18.109Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 120,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69889,9 +68974,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "It is objectively demonstrated that humans are not very good or very safe drivers. [According to the NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2019-fatality-data-traffic-deaths-2020-q2-projections), there were 36,096 deaths due to motor vehicle crashes in the USA in 2019. The vast majority of fatality-causing crashes were substantially attributable to human driver error.\nFurther, common human driving heuristics and competency levels significantly limit the level of efficiency that can be achieved on the roadway. In particular, [human driven traffic does not interact with itself optimally](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170510095703.htm), and for safety purposes, legal speed limits are artificially capped well below the level of vehicle performance. There is some consideration that autonomous vehicles may be able to safely travel [much faster](https://www.inverse.com/article/28110-self-driving-car-speed-future). \nFor these reasons and more, it is plausible that at some point, humans will be generally or entirely legally disallowed from driving a car on public roads.\nWhen will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?\nThis question will resolve when at least two US states concurrently have in place a ban of most or all human driving on public roads. \nThe ban must be a matter of law or equivalent state authority or the question will not resolve.\nA federal ban qualifies the same as if two US states outlaw human driving.\nQualifying states are the current 50 US states, or future equivalents, plus any additional future states with equivalent status of any of the present 50 states. \nHuman driving is considered to be the operation of a car or motorcycle by a human where the human substantially directs the vehicle's motion by any means that involve a human brain substantially carrying out the processing required for meaningful direction of the vehicle's motion.\nAlthough the question implies that AI would supplant human driving in the event of such a ban, this is not necessary for a positive resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:04.652Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:23.436Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 19,
+      "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -69908,7 +68993,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:09.847Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:28.706Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69927,7 +69012,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the fiscal year 2021, Trump lowered the [global cap on refugee admissions to 15,000](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/2/4/22266410/biden-refugee-executive-order?utm_source=facebook&amp;utm_content=voxdotcom&amp;utm_campaign=vox.social&amp;utm_medium=social). During his campaign, Biden promised to [raise refugee admissions to at least 125,000 per year](https://web.archive.org/web/20210413174030/https://joebiden.com/immigration/), starting in the 2022 fiscal year. Following his election, Biden proposed raising the refugee cap for the remainder of the 2021 fiscal year to 62,500; however, on April 15th, he issued a presidential determination [maintaining the refugee cap at 15,000](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/biden-keeps-us-refugee-cap-15000-rather-than-raise-it-official-2021-04-16/) and only changing regional allocations. Following criticism, the Biden administration issued a statement later that day promising a [final, increased refugee cap by May 15th](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/16/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-the-emergency-presidential-determination-on-refugee-admissions-for-fiscal-year-2021/).\nThe number of refugees admitted during the last few presidential terms are 118,063 from 2016-2020, 294,840 from 2012-2016, 262,627 from 2008-2012, and 203,509 from 2004-2008.\nHow many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?\nResolution will be by the first [Refugee Processing Center admissions and arrivals report](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) that contains data for every month in 2024.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:15.067Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:34.105Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -69957,9 +69042,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:20.298Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:39.362Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 144,
+      "numforecasts": 146,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -69978,18 +69063,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
+        "probability": 0.13,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
+        "probability": 0.87,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:25.593Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:44.600Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 386,
+      "numforecasts": 390,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -70006,7 +69091,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:30.883Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:49.794Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70036,7 +69121,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:36.039Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:13:55.929Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70066,9 +69151,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:41.966Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:01.370Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 420,
+      "numforecasts": 421,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -70085,7 +69170,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarized by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based eggs totaled $27M in 2020([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#eggs)). This is up from $10M in 2019, and $3M in 2018.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based eggs, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2022 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3M in 2018, $10M in 2019, and $27M in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 80%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:47.118Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:06.642Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70104,7 +69189,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:52.375Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:11.880Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 81,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70134,7 +69219,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:13:57.641Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:17.086Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 321,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70153,7 +69238,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.\nBut will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).\nWhat will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? \nWe will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. \nResolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.\nInspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:02.862Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:22.298Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 119,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70183,7 +69268,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:08.092Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:27.587Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70213,7 +69298,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:13.379Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:32.783Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 125,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70232,7 +69317,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:18.821Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:37.971Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 201,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70251,7 +69336,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:23.989Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:43.491Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70270,7 +69355,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&amp;ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:29.162Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:48.779Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70289,7 +69374,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.\nWhen completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to \"study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.\"\nPer [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),\n[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.\nOf course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.\nTo that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? \nResolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:34.490Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:54.106Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70308,7 +69393,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:39.657Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:14:59.295Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70327,7 +69412,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:45.205Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:04.776Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 407,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70357,7 +69442,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:50.545Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:10.400Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 182,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70387,7 +69472,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:14:55.878Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:16.019Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 229,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70417,7 +69502,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:01.965Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:21.295Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70436,7 +69521,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:07.216Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:26.476Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70449,25 +69534,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:12.875Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 49,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/",
@@ -70485,9 +69551,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:18.699Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:31.684Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 182,
+      "numforecasts": 183,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -70498,6 +69564,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:37.141Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 49,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/",
@@ -70515,7 +69600,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:24.037Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:42.488Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70545,9 +69630,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:29.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:48.207Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 209,
+      "numforecasts": 212,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -70564,7 +69649,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:34.866Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:53.840Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70583,7 +69668,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:40.081Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:15:59.127Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 285,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70602,7 +69687,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One natural use case of AI systems are virtual assistants:\nAn intelligent virtual assistant (IVA) or intelligent personal assistant (IPA) is a software agent that can perform tasks or services for an individual based on commands or questions. [[source]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_assistant)\nThere is already a broad user base as of the pre-installed virtual assistants from Apple, Amazon, Windows and Google. \nAs of 2017, the capabilities and usage of virtual assistants are expanding rapidly, with new products entering the market and a strong emphasis on both email and voice user interfaces. Apple and Google have large installed bases of users on smartphones. Microsoft has a large installed base of Windows-based personal computers, smartphones and smart speakers. Amazon has a large install base for smart speakers.[3] Conversica has over 100 million engagements via its email and sms interface Intelligent Virtual Assistants for business. [[source]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_assistant)\nHow many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?\nThis will be resolved according to the number of customers who pay(ed) specifically for the service of the AI assistant, so the purchase must be uncoupled of hardware components like speakers and screens or computing devices like smartphones. Exemplary prototypes that this question is aimed at are a software firm developing an alternative to Siri, or [Replika](https://replika.ai/), an app that offers to build a virtual replica of a human that you can interact with via chat and voice calls.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:45.346Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:04.495Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70632,7 +69717,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:50.549Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:10.707Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 192,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70651,7 +69736,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:15:56.056Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:15.922Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 124,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70670,7 +69755,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"&gt; Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:01.270Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:21.460Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70700,7 +69785,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:07.664Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:26.801Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 303,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70730,7 +69815,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:12.868Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:31.946Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70749,7 +69834,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)\nOpen Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?\nCari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.\nAs of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?\nMoney donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.\nBy the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:18.124Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:37.285Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70779,9 +69864,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:23.380Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:42.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 55,
+      "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -70809,7 +69894,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:28.628Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:48.103Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 776,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70839,7 +69924,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:33.801Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:53.684Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70858,7 +69943,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&amp;A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&amp;A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:39.090Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:16:59.015Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 222,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70888,7 +69973,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:44.441Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:04.275Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 571,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70918,7 +70003,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:49.659Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:09.624Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 250,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70937,7 +70022,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus)\nThere are already questions about the number of deaths that will be attributed to the disease before 2021, as well as the number of cases and estimated infections that will develop. However, there are some reasons why specific questions about ratios of these values will be useful:\n--- \nWhile dividing the median for deaths by the median for estimated infections may give a reasonable point estimate, it doesn't give all the info we want. With this question, we will be able to see the distribution of infection-mortality rates. This cannot be reliably inferred using the distributions for number of cases and number of deaths, because the variables are correlated.\n--- \nThe time-series graph provided by the question will show how predictions about infection-fatality rates change over time.\nResolution: The resolution for this question will be determined by directly dividing the number of fatalities by the total number of cases, using the resolution values given by the following two Metaculus questions:\n--- \nNumerator: [How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-before-2021/)\n--- \nDenominator: [How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/)\nThere may be more sophisticated ways of determining infection-fatality rate, but we would like to stay consistent with the other Metaculus questions.\nEdited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather than the case-fatality ratio.\nEdited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021.\nEdited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:16:55.654Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:15.514Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 1782,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70956,7 +70041,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:01.547Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:20.664Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 109,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -70975,9 +70060,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:06.988Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:26.118Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 215,
+      "numforecasts": 216,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -70994,7 +70079,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:12.175Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:31.586Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 193,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71013,7 +70098,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=2019&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:17.419Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:36.795Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71032,7 +70117,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2019, the [US plant-based milk companies with the largest investment rounds](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf) were Nutpods ($33.61M), Ripple Foods ($11.92M Series C+), Kite Hill ($10M Series C+), Nümilk ($10M Seed), Mooala ($8.33M Series A), and Koia ($7.03M Series A+). These companies alone raised over $80M in venture capital funding.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other capital will be invested in private plant-based milk companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based milk companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based milk companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a plant-based milk company, its primary focus must be alternative milk products made from plants.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:22.591Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:42.126Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71062,7 +70147,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:27.931Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:47.434Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 270,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71092,7 +70177,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:33.280Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:53.028Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 679,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71111,7 +70196,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \"&gt;Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:38.555Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:17:58.534Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 102,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71130,7 +70215,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:43.713Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:03.820Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71160,7 +70245,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:49.303Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:10.380Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 626,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71179,7 +70264,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The scientific definition of \"species\" is surprisingly complicated.\nAs this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:\nAt first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.\nFor the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): \"a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature.\" \nEvolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.\nAnd of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.\nHow many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? \nWe'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:17:54.954Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:15.563Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 203,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71198,7 +70283,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:00.162Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:20.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71228,7 +70313,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:05.502Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:26.115Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 131,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71247,7 +70332,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:10.693Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:31.376Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 168,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71266,7 +70351,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&amp;utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:16.153Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:36.647Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 115,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71296,7 +70381,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:21.369Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:42.180Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71326,7 +70411,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:26.620Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:47.846Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71345,7 +70430,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.\n[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.\nWhat will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?\nThe question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:31.813Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:53.056Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71375,7 +70460,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:37.762Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:18:59.066Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 113,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71394,7 +70479,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their lives in order to avoid organ rejection. This dependence on drugs is of course a sad and significant inconvenience to the patients. A number of laboratories around the world are working to eliminate the necessity of them, and they have made progress by for example using bone marrow from the donor (which was shown to decrease the dose of drugs needed).\nWhen will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?\nThis question will resolve when the first organ transplant is successfully performed without the need for any immunosuppressants.\nFor this question, any transplant of the following organs shall count: skin, cornea, uterus, kidney, liver, lung, heart, pancreas, intestine, stomach, testis, penis, thymus.\nTransplants from twins or clones of the patient (which have occurred since 1954) are not included for this question. A genetically modified organ, grown in an animal or artificial environment shall be allowed.\nIn some instances, immunosuppressant drugs are not necessary (for instance, children under 12 months old). This question is meant to predict the discovery of a method which is &gt;50% effective for &gt;50% of the population (for any one or more organs). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:42.966Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:04.569Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 34,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71413,7 +70498,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:48.284Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:09.941Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71432,7 +70517,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)\nOver the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. \nThis question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:53.461Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:15.658Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71451,7 +70536,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:18:59.287Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:20.847Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71470,7 +70555,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \"&gt;2050-09-05\". \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:04.662Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:26.152Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 131,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71489,9 +70574,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:10.813Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:31.523Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 509,
+      "numforecasts": 520,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -71508,7 +70593,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:16.030Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:36.994Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 86,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71538,7 +70623,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:21.558Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:42.340Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 567,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71557,7 +70642,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:26.833Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:47.578Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 124,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71576,7 +70661,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&amp;D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&amp;D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&amp;D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&amp;D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&amp;D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&amp;D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&amp;D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&amp;D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:32.041Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:52.747Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71606,7 +70691,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:37.237Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:19:57.905Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71625,7 +70710,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&amp;C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"&gt; Oct 5, 2031\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:42.995Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:03.716Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71655,7 +70740,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:19:49.493Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:08.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 47,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71685,7 +70770,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:00.082Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:19.276Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 139,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71715,7 +70800,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:05.522Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:24.500Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71734,7 +70819,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks &amp; data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:10.871Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:29.716Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 449,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71764,7 +70849,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:16.191Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:34.854Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71794,7 +70879,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:26.671Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:45.237Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 262,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71813,7 +70898,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:31.923Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:50.388Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71832,7 +70917,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:37.693Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:20:55.710Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71862,7 +70947,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:43.145Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:01.411Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 749,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71881,7 +70966,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:50.091Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:06.941Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71900,7 +70985,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf cause prioritization is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:20:56.157Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:12.108Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71930,7 +71015,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:01.396Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:17.255Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71949,7 +71034,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to cattle](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include Bovine Tuberculosis and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. In 2018, there were around 143,000 cases of M. bovis related TB in humans, [according to the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world).\nHow many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of cattle reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of cattle that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe cattle must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:12.458Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:27.639Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71968,7 +71053,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:17.882Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:32.817Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 102,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -71998,7 +71083,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:23.065Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:37.992Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 174,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72028,7 +71113,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:28.613Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:43.261Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 146,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72058,7 +71143,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:33.783Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:48.478Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 343,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72077,7 +71162,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:39.207Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:54.259Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 131,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72107,7 +71192,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:44.456Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:21:59.443Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72126,9 +71211,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as &gt;2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:50.416Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
+      "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -72145,7 +71230,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.\nHow many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?\nThis question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A \"patient\" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:21:55.954Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:10.598Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72164,7 +71249,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:01.547Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:15.981Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72183,7 +71268,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:07.025Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:21.194Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 373,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72213,9 +71298,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:17.718Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:31.625Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 235,
+      "numforecasts": 236,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -72243,7 +71328,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:23.412Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:36.895Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72264,18 +71349,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
+        "probability": 0.16,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
+        "probability": 0.84,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:28.760Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:42.491Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 303,
+      "numforecasts": 307,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -72303,7 +71388,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:34.161Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:47.702Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72322,7 +71407,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). \nThese organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.\nWhat is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?\nIf no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nOtherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.\n\"Active\" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:39.621Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:22:53.004Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 34,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72352,7 +71437,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:50.481Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:03.355Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72371,9 +71456,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy &gt;90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (&gt;230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that &gt;230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2022. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:22:56.050Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:08.664Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 1007,
+      "numforecasts": 1009,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -72390,7 +71475,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:01.444Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:19.346Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72409,7 +71494,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:06.995Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:24.541Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 152,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72439,7 +71524,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:17.586Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:34.966Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 305,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72458,7 +71543,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:23.334Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:40.621Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 133,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72488,7 +71573,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:28.574Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:45.803Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72507,7 +71592,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:33.740Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:50.977Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72537,7 +71622,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:38.924Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:23:56.209Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 198,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72556,7 +71641,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:44.102Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:01.615Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 139,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72586,7 +71671,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:49.374Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:06.846Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 312,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72616,7 +71701,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:54.541Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:12.062Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 190,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72646,7 +71731,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:23:59.826Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:17.332Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 204,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72665,7 +71750,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&amp;v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:05.284Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:23.434Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72684,7 +71769,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:16.233Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:28.623Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 66,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72703,7 +71788,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves &gt;2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:21.431Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:33.826Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 141,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72733,7 +71818,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:26.602Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:39.018Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72752,7 +71837,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nFor the purposes of this question, the EU will considered to be the 27 member countries as of April 2021, they are listed in full in the fine print. That is, if one of these countries leaves, their emissions will still be counted, and if a new country joins, its emissions will not be counted.\nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available.\nThe member countries of the EU are:\nAustria \nItaly\nBelgium \nLatvia\nBulgaria \nLithuania\nCroatia \nLuxembourg\nCyprus \nMalta\nCzechia \nNetherlands\nDenmark \nPoland\nEstonia \nPortugal\nFinland \nRomania\nFrance \nSlovakia\nGermany \nSlovenia\nGreece \nSpain\nHungary \nSweden\nIreland \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:31.951Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:44.170Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72771,7 +71856,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:37.165Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:49.401Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 204,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72801,7 +71886,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:42.358Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:54.577Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72831,7 +71916,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:47.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:24:59.752Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 393,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72850,7 +71935,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:24:58.134Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:10.711Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72880,7 +71965,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:04.861Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:15.885Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72910,7 +71995,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:10.073Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:21.294Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 152,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72940,9 +72025,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:15.419Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:26.792Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 393,
+      "numforecasts": 394,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -72959,7 +72044,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:20.845Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:32.191Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72978,7 +72063,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:26.055Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:37.367Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -72997,7 +72082,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:31.699Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:42.586Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73016,7 +72101,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:37.661Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:47.928Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73035,7 +72120,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"&gt; Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:42.919Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:53.110Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 192,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73054,7 +72139,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:48.169Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:25:58.275Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 115,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73084,7 +72169,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:53.386Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:03.516Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 167,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73103,7 +72188,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).\nSince approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:\nRoughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.\nIn the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?\nResolution\nEstimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food &amp; Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:25:58.977Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:08.708Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73122,7 +72207,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:04.280Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:13.895Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73141,7 +72226,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:09.634Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:19.585Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 403,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73160,7 +72245,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:15.637Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:24.802Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73179,7 +72264,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of \"minutes\" (and [recently \"seconds\"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.\nThis question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?\nThis resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. \nIf resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to &gt; 2100-01-01.\nIf either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:20.809Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:29.974Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73209,7 +72294,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:26.049Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:35.235Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73228,9 +72313,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:31.274Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:40.475Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 60,
+      "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -73247,7 +72332,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:36.675Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:45.671Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73266,9 +72351,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&amp;_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender &amp; Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:41.855Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:50.864Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 38,
+      "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -73285,7 +72370,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:47.117Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:26:56.121Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 194,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73304,7 +72389,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) \"the market value of all the final goods and services produced\". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.\nOne notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).\nDenmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?\nResolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:52.344Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:01.401Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 35,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73334,7 +72419,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:26:57.594Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:06.655Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73353,7 +72438,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:03.148Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:11.899Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 111,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73383,7 +72468,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:08.997Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:18.156Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73413,7 +72498,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:14.734Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:23.391Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 804,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73432,7 +72517,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=beyond+meat+market+cap&amp;meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:19.995Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:28.746Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73451,7 +72536,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).\nWhen will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?\nResolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.\nThe question resolves as \"&gt;2040\" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:25.296Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:33.935Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73481,7 +72566,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:30.538Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:39.146Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 570,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73500,7 +72585,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the [lightning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network) [network](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp). A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.\nAt 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by [bitcoinvisuals.com](https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity)?\nDifferent sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on [bitcoinvisuals.com](http://bitcoinvisuals.com) simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to [1ml.com](http://1ml.com), and then a third source if needed.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:35.717Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:44.494Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 159,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73519,7 +72604,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [\"nones\" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.\nPer a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):\n1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).\nAt the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that \n[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.\nImportantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the \"general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,\" but it is \"not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.\" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.\nConsidering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: \nWhat will the portion of the global population identifying as \"religiously unaffiliated\" be in 2050? \nThe resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for \"religiously unaffiliated\" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:41.010Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:49.703Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 203,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73549,7 +72634,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:46.331Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:27:54.873Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 11,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73579,7 +72664,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:51.541Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:00.139Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 144,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73609,7 +72694,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:27:56.814Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:05.649Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 176,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73628,7 +72713,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\n[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.\nWhen will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken \"ingredients\" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:02.107Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:10.839Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 81,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73647,7 +72732,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:07.533Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:16.099Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73677,7 +72762,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:12.738Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:22.104Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 371,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73696,7 +72781,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nThere is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). \nWhen will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??\nResolution\nThis resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.\nFor the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: \n1-- \ntechniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and\n2-- \nat least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.\nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:18.473Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:27.517Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73726,7 +72811,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:23.828Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:32.684Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 84,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73745,7 +72830,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A significant amount of energy, money, and energy is currently (as of 2021) being devoted to performing SHA-256 hashes, because these are the basic operation of bitcoin mining, so that the ability to perform energy efficient hashes is economically rewarded.\n[Biocomputers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_computing) are a promising but very nascent idea to perform digital operations using complex biological molecules — for example enzymes operating on DNA or RNA.\nIn principle, biocomputers could perform an immense number of computations in parallel using very little energy. In particular, in very round numbers, the bitcoin network is (as of mid 2021) performing about [100M terahashes/s](https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate), or hashes/second. That's really a lot. But imagine a biocomputer in which a fairly long strand of DNA (say 10^6 atoms) and some large enzymes ( atoms each) compute a hash — so about atoms at most. A hash is probably of order simple (bitwise) operations. DNA polymerase can act on about 700 base pairs second; so let's suppose it takes 100-1000 seconds to do a hash. Then we'd need about atoms working the problem to outcompute the rest of the world (of 2021). But that's just a small vat of chemicals.\nWhen will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?\nResolves when a biocomputer is demonstrated to either perform a SHA256 hash, or a complex calculation with thousands of operations judged by Metaculus staff to be roughly as difficult as such a hash.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:29.278Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:37.837Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73764,7 +72849,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens &lt;18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict &lt;18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if &lt;18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising &lt;70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:34.450Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:43.073Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73783,7 +72868,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:39.917Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:48.257Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 108,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73802,7 +72887,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \"&gt;\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:50.451Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:28:59.190Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 135,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73832,7 +72917,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:28:55.861Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:04.754Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73851,7 +72936,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:01.191Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:09.924Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73881,7 +72966,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:06.376Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:15.144Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 563,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73911,7 +72996,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:11.569Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:20.357Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 192,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73941,7 +73026,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:16.809Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:25.917Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 101,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73960,7 +73045,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:22.503Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:31.352Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73979,7 +73064,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:27.913Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:36.518Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -73998,7 +73083,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:33.137Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:41.744Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74017,7 +73102,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:38.451Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:46.980Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 298,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74036,7 +73121,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:43.711Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:52.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74055,7 +73140,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Thousands of migrants and refugees die or go missing every year in the Mediterranean when trying to reach European soil [according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees](https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean).\nHow many migrants will die or go missing in the Mediterranean in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of people \"Dead and missing\" in 2022 according to [UNHCR data](https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:49.022Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:29:57.511Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 16,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74074,7 +73159,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:\n--- \nEnsure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.\n--- \nBuild a stronger, more resilient nation.\n--- \nRally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change\n--- \nStand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.\n--- \nFulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.\nIn order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\nResolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:29:54.427Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:02.914Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 159,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74104,7 +73189,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:05.143Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:13.577Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74123,7 +73208,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:10.369Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:18.817Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74142,7 +73227,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:15.698Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:24.186Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74161,7 +73246,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people &lt;18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:20.970Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:29.444Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 69,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74180,7 +73265,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:26.666Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:35.396Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 153,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74210,7 +73295,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:31.881Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:40.574Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 226,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74240,9 +73325,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:37.135Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:45.818Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 110,
+      "numforecasts": 111,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -74270,7 +73355,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:42.532Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:30:51.003Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74289,7 +73374,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:53.185Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:01.715Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74308,9 +73393,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:30:58.472Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:07.022Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 70,
+      "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -74338,7 +73423,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:03.683Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:12.254Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74368,7 +73453,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:08.938Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:18.523Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74398,7 +73483,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:14.447Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:23.748Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 313,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74417,7 +73502,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:19.673Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:28.960Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 13,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74436,7 +73521,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), &amp; [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:24.886Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:34.315Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74455,7 +73540,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:30.299Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:39.594Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 102,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74485,7 +73570,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:37.233Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:44.777Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 132,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74504,7 +73589,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.\nThis question asks:\nHow much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.\nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:42.569Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:49.929Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 81,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74534,7 +73619,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:47.897Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:31:55.202Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 402,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74553,7 +73638,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:53.909Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:00.622Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74572,7 +73657,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:31:59.130Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:05.983Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74602,7 +73687,37 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:04.349Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:11.159Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 255,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson &amp; Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo &amp; Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter &amp; Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&amp;T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.16,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.84,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:16.856Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 255,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74632,7 +73747,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:10.052Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:22.228Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 234,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74651,7 +73766,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:15.448Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:27.426Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74670,7 +73785,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:20.722Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:32.682Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 138,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74689,7 +73804,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:25.951Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:37.857Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 30,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74708,7 +73823,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated &lt;1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:31.154Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:43.086Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74738,7 +73853,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:36.396Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:48.341Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74757,7 +73872,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:46.823Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:32:58.698Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74776,7 +73891,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as &lt;2.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:52.198Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:04.376Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 125,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74795,7 +73910,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:32:57.510Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:09.693Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 194,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74825,7 +73940,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:03.309Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:15.002Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 197,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74844,7 +73959,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:08.524Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:20.222Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 245,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74874,7 +73989,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:13.917Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:25.534Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74893,7 +74008,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:19.281Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:30.751Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74923,7 +74038,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:24.440Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:35.941Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74953,7 +74068,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:29.635Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:41.204Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 393,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74972,7 +74087,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:34.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:46.400Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 181,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -74991,7 +74106,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:40.344Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:51.654Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75010,7 +74125,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:45.557Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:33:56.870Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75029,7 +74144,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&amp;P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:50.736Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:02.237Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75048,7 +74163,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:33:55.955Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:07.716Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75078,7 +74193,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:01.233Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:13.305Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75097,7 +74212,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Academy of Motion Picture Arts &amp; Sciences](http://oscars.org) annually gives awards (known as The Oscars) for the cinematic arts. Among these awards are the categories for Acting or Best Performances.\nKatharine Hepburn holds the record of winning the most (4) competitive Oscars for performances. Ingrid Bergman, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, and Daniel Day-Lewis have won 3 each. [Many performers have 2 such awards](http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/Help/Statistics?file=indexStats.html), including Mahershala Ali, who won two this century.\nWhen will another performer win a 4th competitive Oscar for acting or performance?\nThe question will resolve as the date on which, according to AMPAS, a performer will have won their fourth competitive performance award. The 4 awards may have been won at any time before or during the life of this question.\nTo resolve the question, any official AMPAS press release, announcement, or [listing](http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/Help/Statistics?file=indexStats.html) will suffice. In the event of unclarity, a credible statement by an AMPAS executive or by a film historian may be consulted in the discretion of the admins.\nA \"performer\" \"wins\" an award if AMPAS says so. If holographic representations or other non-humans become eligible under AMPAS rules, they'll be eligible here. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:06.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:18.519Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75127,7 +74242,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:12.254Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:24.198Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 213,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75146,7 +74261,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:17.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:29.407Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75176,9 +74291,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:28.284Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:39.753Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 521,
+      "numforecasts": 522,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -75195,7 +74310,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:33.556Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:45.348Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 131,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75225,9 +74340,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:43.947Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:34:56.435Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 167,
+      "numforecasts": 168,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -75244,7 +74359,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.\nGiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.\nThis question asks: \nWhen will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?\nResolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of \"top charities\", this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:49.144Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:03.176Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75263,7 +74378,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:34:54.887Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:08.414Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 199,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75282,7 +74397,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:00.108Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:13.590Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75301,7 +74416,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:05.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:18.862Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 85,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75320,7 +74435,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:15.886Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:29.449Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 85,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75350,7 +74465,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:21.121Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:34.639Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 276,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75380,7 +74495,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:26.358Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:40.374Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 354,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75399,7 +74514,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:31.844Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:45.551Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75418,7 +74533,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:37.022Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:50.742Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75448,7 +74563,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:42.300Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:35:55.936Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 153,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75467,7 +74582,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:47.609Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:01.208Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75486,7 +74601,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:52.903Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:06.474Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75505,7 +74620,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:35:58.132Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:11.703Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75524,7 +74639,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:03.334Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:16.990Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 226,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75554,7 +74669,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:08.507Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:22.192Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 305,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75573,7 +74688,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nOrange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Orlando boasts a fleet of [5,375 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center.\nThe Floridian government announced an [$8.6 million investment](https://www.flgov.com/2020/07/10/governor-ron-desantis-announces-next-steps-to-strengthen-floridas-electric-vehicle-infrastructure/) to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their [Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan](https://www.fdacs.gov/Energy/Florida-Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap). They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida.\nHow many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:13.788Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:28.094Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 127,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75603,7 +74718,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:19.031Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:33.402Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75622,7 +74737,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:24.665Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:38.686Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75641,7 +74756,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:29.842Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:44.114Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75660,7 +74775,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:35.029Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:49.460Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75679,7 +74794,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:40.269Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:36:54.647Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 21,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75698,7 +74813,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:45.487Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:00.120Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75717,7 +74832,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:50.701Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:05.554Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75747,7 +74862,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:36:56.079Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:12.026Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 184,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75766,7 +74881,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:07.805Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:22.954Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 258,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75796,7 +74911,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:12.992Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:28.154Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 153,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75815,7 +74930,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:18.153Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:33.392Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 133,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75845,7 +74960,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:23.376Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:38.571Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 380,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75864,7 +74979,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:28.722Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:43.993Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75883,7 +74998,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:33.984Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:49.254Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75913,7 +75028,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:39.247Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:37:55.333Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75932,7 +75047,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. \n1--Venus. \n2--Mars. \n3--Europa. \n4--Ganymede. \n5--Another moon of Jupiter. \n6--Enceladus. \n7--Titan. \n8--Another moon of Saturn. \n9--A dwarf planet. \n10-An asteroid. \n11-Another place in the Solar System. \nResolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:44.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:00.679Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75962,7 +75077,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:50.531Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:05.855Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 159,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -75981,7 +75096,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:37:55.825Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:11.111Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 336,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76011,9 +75126,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:01.086Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:17.034Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 227,
+      "numforecasts": 238,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -76041,7 +75156,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:06.346Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:22.386Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76060,7 +75175,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:11.678Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:27.613Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 98,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76090,7 +75205,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:16.931Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:32.755Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76109,7 +75224,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:22.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:38.622Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 109,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76128,7 +75243,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:27.396Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:44.070Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 161,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76158,7 +75273,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:32.580Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:49.278Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76177,7 +75292,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:37.770Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:54.481Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76196,7 +75311,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:43.038Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:38:59.673Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 125,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76226,7 +75341,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:48.825Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:05.500Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 181,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76245,7 +75360,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:54.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:11.016Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76264,7 +75379,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:38:59.304Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:16.242Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76283,7 +75398,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:04.537Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:21.553Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76313,7 +75428,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:15.270Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:32.276Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76332,7 +75447,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.\nAs of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&amp;pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%\nWhen will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?\nThis resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&amp;pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.\nTo pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).\nClarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&amp;pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).\nIn particular, suppose the average survival rate for first exceeds 75% in year , at which point the survival rate was . Then the resolution date will be given by:\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:20.612Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:37.783Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 154,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76351,7 +75466,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). \nThe question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"currently undiscovered\" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.\nFor this question, a \"social media\" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:26.059Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:43.472Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76381,7 +75496,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:31.392Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:48.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76411,7 +75526,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:37.110Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:54.526Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 246,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76430,7 +75545,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:42.298Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:39:59.730Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76460,7 +75575,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:47.489Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:04.990Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 466,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76490,7 +75605,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:52.893Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:10.150Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76520,7 +75635,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:39:58.145Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:15.355Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76550,9 +75665,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:03.354Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:20.687Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 57,
+      "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -76569,7 +75684,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). \nSurface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nWhat will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:08.537Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:25.952Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76588,7 +75703,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:13.709Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:31.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76618,7 +75733,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:18.908Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:37.071Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 66,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76648,7 +75763,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:29.786Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:47.814Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76667,7 +75782,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&amp;LangID=E), \"the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.\" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. \nNorth Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.\nJanuary 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves &gt; in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:35.013Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:53.019Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76686,9 +75801,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:40.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:40:58.178Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 47,
+      "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -76716,7 +75831,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:45.637Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:03.454Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76735,7 +75850,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&amp;context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:50.888Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:08.808Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76765,7 +75880,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:40:56.161Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:14.017Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 303,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76784,7 +75899,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:01.558Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:19.211Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76803,7 +75918,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:06.897Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:24.572Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76822,7 +75937,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:12.280Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:29.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76852,7 +75967,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:17.609Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:35.214Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76882,7 +75997,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:23.067Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:46.026Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 257,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76912,7 +76027,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:29.246Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:51.249Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 104,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76931,7 +76046,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:34.562Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:41:56.488Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 151,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76961,7 +76076,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:39.965Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:01.809Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 171,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -76980,7 +76095,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:45.164Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:07.091Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 23,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77010,7 +76125,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:50.334Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:12.271Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 157,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77029,7 +76144,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.\nIt seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:\nWhen will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? \nQuestion resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.\nResolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.\n(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:41:55.593Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:17.496Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77050,18 +76165,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.14,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.86,
+        "probability": 0.85,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:00.831Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:23.309Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 762,
+      "numforecasts": 767,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -77089,7 +76204,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:17.629Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:34.240Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 165,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77108,7 +76223,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are &lt;25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:23.667Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:39.498Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77127,7 +76242,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:29.533Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:44.920Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 177,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77146,7 +76261,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:35.163Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:50.171Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 111,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77176,7 +76291,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:40.423Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:42:55.364Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 67,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77206,7 +76321,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:45.766Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:01.503Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 1478,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77236,7 +76351,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:51.169Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:07.058Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 161,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77266,7 +76381,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:42:56.425Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:12.739Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 98,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77285,7 +76400,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.\nSince biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:01.884Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:18.022Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 68,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77304,7 +76419,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled \"Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?\", Scott Alexander wrote:\nImagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.\nIf this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.\nThis question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:\nLet the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. \nWhat will be the value of F/P?\nThe index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:\n1--climate change \n2--global warming \n3--greenhouse gas \n4--greenhouse effect \n5--fossil fuels \n6--carbon dioxide \n7--sea level rise \n8--emissions \n9--renewable energy \n10-climate science \nThe search terms used to generate the data are:\n---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) \n---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) \n---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,climate%20science) \nThe normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:07.124Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:23.282Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77323,7 +76438,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:12.873Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:29.257Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 373,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77342,7 +76457,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:18.145Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:34.542Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77361,7 +76476,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\na private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\nWhat will be the population of Próspera in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of people who are citizens of Próspera as of 2035-01-01, according to the city's own data.\nIf this data is published with lower than daily resolution (e.g. monthly or yearly), the number corresponding to the time interval containing 2035-01-01 will be used (e.g. January 2035 or 2035).\nIf this data is published with higher than daily resolution, it will be averaged over all data points contained in 2035-01-01.\nIf Próspera ceases to exist before resolution, the question resolves as 0. Three randomly appointed active Metaculus moderators will determine via simple majority vote whether the city has ceased to exist or not. This will cover edge cases like the city changing its name and location or the project undergoing substantial legal and political changes.\nIf Próspera still exists but the population data is not available even upon request, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:23.538Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:39.792Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 169,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77391,7 +76506,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:28.751Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:44.989Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 291,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77410,7 +76525,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. \nBut this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:\nWhen will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?\nWill resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:34.049Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:50.181Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77429,7 +76544,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).\nIn a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler &amp; Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;\nParameter Distribution:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nI thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.\nSome of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.\nIt would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. \nIn this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:39.261Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:43:55.390Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 236,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77448,7 +76563,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:44.668Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:00.572Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77467,7 +76582,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as &gt; Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:49.850Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:05.793Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77497,7 +76612,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:43:55.083Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:11.898Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 638,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77516,7 +76631,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:05.993Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:22.450Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 122,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77535,7 +76650,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:11.169Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:27.777Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77565,7 +76680,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:16.598Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:33.007Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 571,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77584,7 +76699,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:21.841Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:38.336Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 136,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77614,7 +76729,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:27.206Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:43.676Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77644,7 +76759,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:32.498Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:44:49.025Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 141,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77663,7 +76778,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:42.998Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:00.280Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77682,7 +76797,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:48.684Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:05.607Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 240,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77712,7 +76827,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:53.901Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:10.893Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 113,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77731,7 +76846,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.\nAlcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nSo, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.\n[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).\nThe Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.\nWhat will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?\nThis counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. \n\"Available\" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\nIf nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:44:59.289Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:16.176Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77750,7 +76865,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:05.134Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:21.410Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77769,7 +76884,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:11.158Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:26.634Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 183,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77788,7 +76903,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:16.637Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:31.890Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 165,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77807,7 +76922,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:21.963Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:37.601Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 164,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77837,7 +76952,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:27.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:42.909Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77867,7 +76982,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:33.513Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:48.117Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77886,7 +77001,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:39.076Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:53.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77905,7 +77020,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:44.300Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:45:58.697Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77924,7 +77039,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:49.651Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:03.954Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 573,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77943,7 +77058,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:45:55.274Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:09.280Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 198,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -77973,7 +77088,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:00.481Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:14.769Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 124,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78003,7 +77118,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:05.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:20.421Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78033,7 +77148,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:11.621Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:25.630Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78052,7 +77167,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:16.820Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:30.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78082,7 +77197,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:22.196Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:36.020Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 376,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78101,7 +77216,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?\nThis will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.\nIf the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:27.413Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:41.149Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78131,9 +77246,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:32.641Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:46.429Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 283,
+      "numforecasts": 287,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -78150,7 +77265,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:37.946Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:51.739Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78180,7 +77295,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:43.370Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:46:56.975Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 135,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78210,7 +77325,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:48.540Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:02.722Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 296,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78229,7 +77344,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.\nThese thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. \n[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.\nDespite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)\nHaiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)\nThis question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:54.293Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:07.925Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 153,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78248,7 +77363,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:46:59.613Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:13.177Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78267,9 +77382,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf animal welfare is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:04.967Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:18.375Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 24,
+      "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -78286,7 +77401,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:15.549Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:29.014Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78316,9 +77431,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:20.915Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:34.622Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 405,
+      "numforecasts": 407,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -78335,7 +77450,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:26.273Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:39.818Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78354,7 +77469,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:31.469Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:45.151Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 122,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78373,7 +77488,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&amp;P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of &lt;20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:36.735Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:50.339Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 123,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78403,7 +77518,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:42.106Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:47:55.516Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78422,9 +77537,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:47.306Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:00.710Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 59,
+      "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-11-22T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -78441,7 +77556,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:52.674Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:05.877Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 102,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78460,7 +77575,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:47:58.057Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:11.124Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 198,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78490,7 +77605,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:04.470Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:17.001Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 197,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78520,7 +77635,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:09.858Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:22.337Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78539,7 +77654,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. \n[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. \nWhat will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nCredible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.\nPBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nThe question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:15.163Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:27.741Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78569,9 +77684,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:20.371Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:33.326Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 149,
+      "numforecasts": 150,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -78590,18 +77705,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.07,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+        "probability": 0.94,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:25.602Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:38.492Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 137,
+      "numforecasts": 139,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -78618,7 +77733,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&amp;D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:37.938Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:48.860Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 147,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78637,7 +77752,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:43.325Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:48:54.034Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 47,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78656,7 +77771,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:48.553Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:00.377Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78675,7 +77790,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:54.315Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:05.544Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 137,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78705,7 +77820,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:48:59.648Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:10.688Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78724,7 +77839,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:04.845Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:16.799Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 192,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78754,7 +77869,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:10.009Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:21.977Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78773,7 +77888,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "related question:\n---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) \nEconomic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:\nWhat will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?\nThis resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as\nthis question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:15.286Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:27.581Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78792,7 +77907,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SiH4 &lt; CH4\nb) PbH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; CH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SiH4\nc) CH4 &lt; SiH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; PbH4\nd) CH4 &lt; PbH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at &gt; Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:20.952Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:32.842Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78811,7 +77926,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:26.763Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:38.505Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 119,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78841,7 +77956,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:32.014Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:43.693Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 180,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78871,7 +77986,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:37.183Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:48.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78901,7 +78016,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:42.402Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:49:54.277Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 143,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78931,7 +78046,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:52.962Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:04.637Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78950,7 +78065,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.\nA [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:49:58.253Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:09.852Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 30,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78980,7 +78095,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:03.510Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:15.532Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -78999,7 +78114,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:08.814Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:21.085Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79018,7 +78133,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:14.612Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:26.293Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79037,7 +78152,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)\nThe Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.\n[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic \"is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.\" \nIn 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).\nWhat will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?\nThe question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.\nThe Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:19.837Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:31.454Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79056,7 +78171,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.\nBallooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)\nBalloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.\nWhen will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:25.012Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:36.620Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 136,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79075,7 +78190,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&amp;C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&amp;C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents &amp; Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\nCIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:\n\"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\"\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.\nA question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:30.177Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:41.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 35,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79094,7 +78209,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:40.811Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:52.685Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 67,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79113,7 +78228,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new \"winter,\" as argued in [this article](https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/04/the-ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/). We shall define an index as follows:\n--- \n+1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 [5-year Google trends search](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;q=%22AI%20winter%22) on \"AI winter\" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at &lt; 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase \"AI winter\" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if the fraction of [listed YC funded startups](https://yclist.com) that mention \"AI\" or \"machine learning\" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing \"artificial intelligence\" OR \"machine learning\" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the [corresponding search for 2018](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-0-field=abstract&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22machine+learning%22&amp;terms-1-field=abstract&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;date-year=2018&amp;date-filter_by=date_range&amp;date-from_date=2018-01-01&amp;date-to_date=2018-06-01&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)\n--- \n+1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to \"machine learning\" divided by those limited to \"artificial intelligence\" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.\nAny of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.\nWhat will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index? \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:46.162Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:50:58.086Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 295,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79143,7 +78258,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:51.371Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:03.774Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79173,7 +78288,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:50:57.289Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:09.000Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 242,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79192,9 +78307,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:08.029Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:19.747Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 81,
+      "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79211,7 +78326,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [\"the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.\"](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.\nThis question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?\nIn 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).\nThis question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:13.302Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:24.890Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79230,7 +78345,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:18.529Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:30.061Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 23,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79249,9 +78364,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.\nIt is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?\nIn order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:23.907Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:36.073Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 132,
+      "numforecasts": 139,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79279,9 +78394,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:29.929Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:41.261Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 140,
+      "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79298,7 +78413,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:35.217Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:46.441Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 105,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79317,7 +78432,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:40.382Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:51.738Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79336,7 +78451,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:45.621Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:51:56.899Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79366,7 +78481,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:50.809Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:02.043Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 186,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79385,7 +78500,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.\nOn February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,\nOne of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.\nThis question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (&gt;10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:51:56.111Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:07.273Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 345,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79404,9 +78519,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:01.323Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:13.168Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 108,
+      "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79434,7 +78549,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:07.065Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:18.901Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79464,7 +78579,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:12.336Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:24.469Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 235,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79483,7 +78598,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:17.641Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:29.664Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 69,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79513,9 +78628,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:28.305Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:40.085Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 539,
+      "numforecasts": 541,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79543,7 +78658,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:33.543Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:45.259Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 224,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79564,18 +78679,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.25,
+        "probability": 0.24,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.75,
+        "probability": 0.76,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:38.875Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:50.481Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 610,
+      "numforecasts": 611,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79592,7 +78707,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.\nPoker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. \nAn example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.\nAnd so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?\n\nDefinition of “significant competition”:\n----------------------------------------\n\nA Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:\n---more than 300 hands are played \n---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) \n---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) \n---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. \nThere are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:\n1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. \n2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. \n\nClarifications and fine print:\n------------------------------\n\n---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. \n---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. \n---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. \n--- \nThe rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: \n------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. \n------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. \n------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:44.292Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:52:56.745Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 169,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79622,7 +78737,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:49.998Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:02.009Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79641,7 +78756,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:52:55.165Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:07.137Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79660,7 +78775,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:00.587Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:12.812Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79690,7 +78805,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:06.578Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:18.355Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 159,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79720,7 +78835,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:11.861Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:23.620Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79750,7 +78865,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:17.197Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:28.983Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 150,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79769,7 +78884,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:22.446Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:34.234Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79799,9 +78914,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:27.663Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:39.387Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 81,
+      "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -79829,7 +78944,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:32.869Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:44.698Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79848,7 +78963,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:38.096Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:49.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79867,7 +78982,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:43.287Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:53:55.017Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79886,7 +79001,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:49.583Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:01.113Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79916,7 +79031,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:53:54.774Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:06.312Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 317,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79935,7 +79050,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. \nWhen will such contraception be available to US men?\nFor resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) \nIt must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:00.207Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:11.794Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79954,7 +79069,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:10.769Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:22.166Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -79973,7 +79088,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. \nOren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.\nThis question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.\nIf the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:16.026Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:27.318Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 69,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80003,7 +79118,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:31.858Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:43.617Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 605,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80022,7 +79137,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:37.921Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:48.782Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 85,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80041,7 +79156,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "related questions: \n---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) \n---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) \n---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) \nIn 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_(video_game)).\nAs of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.\nI attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)\nAn AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.\nWhen will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?\nThis question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.\nWith regard to pretraining, the question allows:\n---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game \n---unlimited training on all other Atari games \n---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set \n---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. \nBesides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.\nIn general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:43.123Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:54:53.991Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80060,7 +79175,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nNuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).\nOn the other hand, \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).\n\nDefinition\n==========\n\n\"The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.\nThe energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.\"\n(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))\n\nResolution criteria\n===================\n\nIf a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.\n\nRelated questions\n=================\n\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q &gt;= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:53.819Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:04.418Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80079,7 +79194,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:54:59.016Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:09.789Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80098,7 +79213,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:04.294Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:15.229Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 108,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80117,7 +79232,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&amp;page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:09.485Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:21.071Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 114,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80136,7 +79251,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nLevels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).\nIn the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. \nOn occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).\nWhat will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:23.159Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:31.673Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80166,7 +79281,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:28.353Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:36.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 387,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80196,7 +79311,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:33.693Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:42.115Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80215,7 +79330,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.\nHow much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nThe estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). \nFor the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):\n“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.\nA plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. \nFor singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. \nFor larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a \"plant-based meat\" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words \"plant-based meat\" or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"plant-based beef\" or \"plant-based burger\"), and/or variations where \"plant\" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. \"pea-based meat\" or \"soy-protein based chicken\").\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:39.042Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:47.370Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 135,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80245,9 +79360,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:44.306Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:52.979Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 227,
+      "numforecasts": 228,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -80264,7 +79379,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:49.473Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:55:58.566Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80283,7 +79398,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:55:54.973Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:04.169Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80302,7 +79417,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)\nBut guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.\nAmong them:\n--- \nThe Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 \n--- \nIn 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.\nBut when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? \nThe Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): \nAt that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. \"The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,\" the report explains. \nIt seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:02.022Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:09.354Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 210,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80332,7 +79447,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:12.584Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:19.879Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80351,7 +79466,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:17.812Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:25.202Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80381,7 +79496,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:23.097Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:30.420Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 716,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80411,7 +79526,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:28.242Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:35.610Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80430,7 +79545,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:33.386Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:40.826Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80449,7 +79564,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:\n---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination \n---A report from another body of the United Nations \n---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson \n---A report by another credible source \nIf the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.\nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. \nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:39.109Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:51.649Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 16,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80468,7 +79583,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:44.603Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:56:56.830Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 47,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80487,7 +79602,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:49.814Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:01.983Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 151,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80506,7 +79621,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are \"combination\" trucks such as tractor-trailers.\nAll of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:\nWhen will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? \nFor positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the \"passenger seat\" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:56:55.254Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:07.226Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 348,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80525,7 +79640,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since the early days of \"machine code\" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand. \nIt would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to \"induce\" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a \"Neural Programmer,\" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.\nWhile machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:\nHow long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python? \nAs a concrete challenge, we'll ask that in 2 of 5 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the first two sections of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. To avoid making this mostly about language parsing, the plaintext specification can be \"translated\" by a human operator into a plaintext description of lesser length prior to input into the ML system, so that the system functions something like a very high-level programming language. (This still leaves a major challenge of a system that turns the specification into a task for which the neural network can be trained.) \nThe existence of such a system will be determined by actual demonstration, OR by agreement by two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:00.722Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:12.637Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 265,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80544,7 +79659,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. \nA key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain \"[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)\", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that \"Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.\"\nAnother [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).\nThese could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.\nIn what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? \nFor specifics, we'll define \"fully autonomous\" using the NHTSA \"level 4\" designation:\nThe vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.\nWe'll also specify that \"cars\" really means \"cars,\" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:05.993Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:17.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 361,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80574,7 +79689,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:11.360Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:22.971Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 221,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80593,7 +79708,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:22.034Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:28.650Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80612,7 +79727,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:27.250Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:33.789Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80631,7 +79746,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&amp;utm_brand=wired&amp;utm_campaign=wired&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_social-type=owned&amp;utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:32.470Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:38.973Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80650,7 +79765,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where &gt;=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf &gt;50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with &gt;50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to &gt;December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:48.830Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:54.716Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80669,7 +79784,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:54.085Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:57:59.887Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 131,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80688,7 +79803,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:57:59.685Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:05.138Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80718,7 +79833,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:05.657Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:10.803Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80748,7 +79863,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:10.885Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:16.017Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 220,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80769,18 +79884,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.25,
+        "probability": 0.24,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.75,
+        "probability": 0.76,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:16.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:21.250Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 279,
+      "numforecasts": 283,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -80808,7 +79923,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:21.492Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:26.537Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 1635,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80838,7 +79953,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:37.253Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:42.480Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 162,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80857,7 +79972,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/02/03/student-loan-debt-statistics/?sh=2341eaad281f),\nThere are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.\nFrom [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-may-come-with-tax-bomb-heres-what-you-should-know.html),\nStudent loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.\nBiden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.\nSens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.\nThe US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public Service Loan Forgiveness](https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service) program. The [most recent data](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data) shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.\nHow many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application\" and \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:42.727Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:47.786Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80876,7 +79991,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select \"ML / Data Science\" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.\nWhat will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?\nIf by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:47.953Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:58:53.444Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80895,7 +80010,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:58:59.456Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:03.936Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 189,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80925,7 +80040,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:04.849Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:09.219Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 41,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -80955,9 +80070,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:10.167Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:14.402Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 379,
+      "numforecasts": 380,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -80985,7 +80100,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:15.369Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:19.650Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 144,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81015,7 +80130,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:20.602Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:24.811Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 201,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81034,7 +80149,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:37.281Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:40.933Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 170,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81053,7 +80168,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) &amp; [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:42.515Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:46.235Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81072,7 +80187,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:47.762Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:51.520Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 104,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81102,7 +80217,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:53.087Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T13:59:56.696Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81132,9 +80247,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T13:59:58.337Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:01.946Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 174,
+      "numforecasts": 177,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -81151,7 +80266,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:03.570Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:08.150Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81170,7 +80285,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as &gt;01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:09.614Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:13.359Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 102,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81200,7 +80315,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:14.945Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:18.764Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81219,7 +80334,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:20.171Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:24.159Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81249,7 +80364,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:25.434Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:29.556Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 484,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81279,9 +80394,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:30.837Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:34.724Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 216,
+      "numforecasts": 217,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -81309,7 +80424,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:36.022Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:39.930Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 146,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81328,7 +80443,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 419.13 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to an average of 428.79 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWhat will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020 to 2021 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the arithmetic mean of the \"annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration data from the Mauna Loa monitoring station\" in 2020 and 2021, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\nIf you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:41.215Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:45.852Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 236,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81347,7 +80462,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:46.497Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:00:51.020Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81366,7 +80481,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:00:57.641Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:01.374Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 257,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81385,7 +80500,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. \nAs such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?\nWhen will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?\nThis question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:02.953Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:06.533Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81415,7 +80530,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:08.172Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:11.744Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 219,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81434,7 +80549,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.\nThis question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nResolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:13.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:17.485Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 301,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81453,7 +80568,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:19.610Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:23.190Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 113,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81472,7 +80587,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:31.317Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:33.723Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81491,9 +80606,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:36.690Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:38.944Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 163,
+      "numforecasts": 164,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -81510,7 +80625,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:42.288Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:44.170Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81540,7 +80655,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:48.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:49.556Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 533,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81570,7 +80685,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:54.193Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:01:54.786Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81600,7 +80715,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:01:59.497Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:00.990Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 207,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81630,7 +80745,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:04.696Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:06.218Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81660,7 +80775,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:10.769Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:11.514Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 108,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81679,7 +80794,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. \nFor the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.\nNot included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.\nHow many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?\nIn the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:16.656Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:16.683Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81698,7 +80813,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:32.733Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:32.296Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81717,7 +80832,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"&gt; Dec 24, 2035\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:37.925Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:37.552Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81736,7 +80851,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:43.513Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:42.760Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81766,9 +80881,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:48.867Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:48.948Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 193,
+      "numforecasts": 195,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -81785,7 +80900,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.\nCurrently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. \nHowever, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. \nTo take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.\nInterestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).\nWhen will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).\nPrices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:54.134Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:02:54.904Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 141,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81815,7 +80930,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:02:59.339Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:00.162Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81834,7 +80949,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:05.315Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:05.491Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81853,7 +80968,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:10.665Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:10.669Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81872,7 +80987,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.\nFor at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.\nWhen will a universal flu vaccine be available?\n---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. \n---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.\n------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. \n------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). \n---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. \n---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. \n---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:16.146Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:15.956Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 84,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81891,7 +81006,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.\nMuch more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.\nRecently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.\nThe body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).\nWhen will will a human head transplant operation be performed\nResolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:21.592Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:21.306Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81910,7 +81025,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:27.159Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:26.648Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81929,7 +81044,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. \nBy the end of 2019, 55 announced early-stage companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nSo far, cultivated meat production facilities have not seen commercial scale. That said, plans are under way:\n--- \nIn August 2019, BlueNalu [released a five-stage commercialization strategy](https://www.bluenalu.com/pr-82219) that calls for moving the company from pilot-scale research and development to facilities with 150,000 square feet of food production space and the capacity to make 18 million pounds (~8,000 metric tons) of finished cultivated seafood products per year\n--- \nIn September 2020 Mosa Meat's head of operations [announced](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/09/25/How-will-Mosa-Meat-spend-its-latest-55m-injection) that they will be scaling all the way up to a 200L bioreactor capable of producing 100kg of cultured burgers for each 200L production line.\nWhat will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products, according to credible reports. \nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the cultivated meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. For a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nThe production process may involve any medium, such as scaffolding techniques, cultivators or bioreactors. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:32.585Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:32.218Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81959,7 +81074,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:37.803Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:37.419Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 227,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81978,7 +81093,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:42.977Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:43.436Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -81997,7 +81112,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:48.987Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:48.621Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82027,9 +81142,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:54.313Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:53.949Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 415,
+      "numforecasts": 416,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -82046,7 +81161,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:03:59.641Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:03:59.298Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82076,7 +81191,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:04.863Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:04.580Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 119,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82106,7 +81221,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:10.545Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:10.054Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82136,7 +81251,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:15.778Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:15.551Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82155,7 +81270,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:21.033Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:20.744Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82185,7 +81300,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:26.322Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:26.734Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 408,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82204,7 +81319,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:32.102Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:31.902Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 251,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82223,7 +81338,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:37.282Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:37.180Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82253,9 +81368,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:47.642Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:42.410Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 74,
+      "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -82283,7 +81398,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:53.019Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:52.930Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82313,9 +81428,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:04:58.703Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:04:58.120Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 85,
+      "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -82332,7 +81447,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Embryo selection is](https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection):\nA few eggs are extracted from a woman and fertilized; each resulting sibling embryo is biopsied for a few cells which are sequenced. A single polygenic score is used to rank the embryos by predicted future trait-value, and surviving embryos are implanted one by one until a healthy live birth happens or there are no more embryos. By starting with the top-ranked embryo, an average gain is realized.\nThe basic form of this technology, involving simple genetic testing for karyotype (chromosome numbers) and specific (near)-monogenic diseases (e.g. Tay-Sachs) has been used in humans for years. However, the most recent iteration that involves scoring embryos for polygenic traits (e.g. height, intelligence, type 2 diabetes) has only been used a few times so far.\nThere is another upcoming technology in this area: iterated embryos selection. Here we select on embryos while also applying in vitro gametogenesis to generate gametes (eggs and spermatozoa) from embryos, thus skipping the step of having to birth a human:\n(Also called “whizzogenetics”, “in vitro eugenics”, or “in vitro breeding”/IVB.) A large set of cells, perhaps from a diverse set of donors, is regressed to stem cells, turned into both sperm/egg cells, fertilizing each other, and then the top-ranked embryos are selected, yielding a moderate gain; those embryos are not implanted but regressed back to stem cells, and the cycle repeats. Each “generation” the increases accumulate; after perhaps a dozen generations, the trait-values have increased many SDs, and the final embryos are then implanted.\nThis approach is nearing reality, as various academic publications note, e.g. [\"Artificially produced gametes in mice, humans and other species\" (2021)](https://www.publish.csiro.au/rd/RD20265), [\"Overview of In Vitro Gametogenesis in Mice, Future Applications, and Related Social Changes and Ethics\" (2020)](https://repository.yu.edu/handle/20.500.12202/5635), [\"Roadmap of germline development and in vitro gametogenesis from pluripotent stem cells\" (2019)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/andr.12726). There are other uses than genetic selection, since this method allows people to self-fertilize (generate both gametes from one person), and fertilize using homosexual parents (one supplies each gamete type). Bioethicists are already discussing such matters, e.g. [\"Drawing the line on in vitro gametogenesis\" (2020)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bioe.12679). Thus, to better forecast the potential of human iterated embryo selection, we care about when the component technology will be ready for use.\nWhen will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?\n---A trustworthy report of a case of human in vitro gametogenesis leading to a live birth. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:04.137Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:03.300Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82351,7 +81466,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:09.321Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:08.557Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 204,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82381,7 +81496,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:14.697Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:13.897Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 368,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82411,7 +81526,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:19.996Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:19.170Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 194,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82441,7 +81556,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:25.341Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:24.350Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 79,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82454,25 +81569,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7019/world-over-1-million-covid-daily-cases/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The daily global covid case seven day moving average is over 800,000. Will the world pass 1 million daily cases for the seven-day moving average? Predict the date that this could happen. \nResolution is via [Worldometers tracks the global daily covid cases](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/).\nWhen will the world surpass 1 million COVID cases per day for the seven day moving average\nIf it does not happen by Dec 31, 2021 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:30.626Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 88,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-02T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-31T18:48:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:48:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/",
@@ -82490,7 +81586,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:35.911Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:29.621Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82520,7 +81616,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:41.717Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:35.258Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 150,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82550,7 +81646,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:47.571Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:40.504Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 177,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82580,7 +81676,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:53.010Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:45.693Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 162,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82593,36 +81689,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves positive if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n[edit note] SCH 2021-05-17: replaced This question resolves if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. with This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.67,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:05:58.259Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 251,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
@@ -82640,9 +81706,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:03.624Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:50.905Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 552,
+      "numforecasts": 553,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -82653,13 +81719,43 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves positive if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n[edit note] SCH 2021-05-17: replaced This question resolves if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. with This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.67,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:05:56.153Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 251,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6839/first-openly-furry-us-official/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Furries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furry_fandom) are a subculture interested in anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics. Furries form a diverse group, their common interests having several dimensions, which include artistic and sexual preferences, as well as self-image and identity aspects.\nIn 2017, [a councilman in Connecticut resigned](https://www.reddit.com/r/DeFranco/comments/6z5pec/councilman_resigning_after_secret_furry_life/) after being outed as a furry. As of this writing, no openly furry politician holds an office in US government. \nWhen will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?\nThis question resolves when the first openly furry person is elected to any of the following offices:\n---US Congress \n---US President or Vice President \n---Any US State Legislature \n---Any US State Governorship (including Lieutenant Governors [in those states where the Lieutenant Governor is elected](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_current_United_States_lieutenant_governors) by popular vote) \nA politician is considered to be \"openly furry\" if credible media reports indicate they self-identify as such before being elected. They may presently identify as a furry, or may have been a furry in the past (without apologizing or renouncing such an identity).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:09.263Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:01.429Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82678,7 +81774,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&amp;P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&amp;P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&amp;P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&amp;P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&amp;P 500 market value.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:14.482Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:06.591Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 354,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82708,7 +81804,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:19.749Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:12.112Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 149,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82738,7 +81834,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:30.388Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:22.640Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82757,7 +81853,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:35.714Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:27.863Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 255,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82776,7 +81872,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:41.123Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:33.070Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 338,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82806,7 +81902,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:46.454Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:38.313Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 378,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82825,7 +81921,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:51.703Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:43.567Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82855,7 +81951,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:06:56.923Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:48.847Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82885,7 +81981,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:02.544Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:54.015Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82898,25 +81994,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:08.019Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 63,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/",
@@ -82934,9 +82011,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:13.249Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:06:59.276Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
+      "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -82947,13 +82024,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:04.543Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 63,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:19.387Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:10.294Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 169,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -82972,7 +82068,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:25.164Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:15.704Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83002,7 +82098,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:30.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:20.931Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83021,7 +82117,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $25 million to the focus area \"Farmed Animal Welfare\" in 2020 and $40 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Farm Animal Welfare\" plus any additional focus areas aimed at helping animals. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Animal Welfare should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:35.706Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:26.071Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 12,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83051,9 +82147,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:41.178Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:31.229Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 70,
+      "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -83070,7 +82166,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.\nConstruction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. \nRebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.\nThey've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.\nAs this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:\nThe Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. \nThis other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): \nKnowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.\nWhat do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?\n(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:46.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:36.706Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 204,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83100,7 +82196,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:51.599Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:41.893Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 403,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83130,7 +82226,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:07:56.797Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:47.254Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 243,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83149,7 +82245,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:02.033Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:52.599Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 172,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83179,7 +82275,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:07.827Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:07:57.918Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 247,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83198,7 +82294,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are deployed rather than in reserve or retired would likely increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also affect the likelihood of nuclear or non-nuclear conflict occurring in the first place, though it's harder to say in which direction. Finally, changes in the number of deployed weapons can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.\nHow many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves as the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This excludes weapons that are (a) in reserve/nondeployed or (b) retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:12.975Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:03.065Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83217,7 +82313,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. \nHow many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:18.205Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:08.452Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83247,7 +82343,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:23.527Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:13.655Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 261,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83266,7 +82362,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:28.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:18.807Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 261,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83296,7 +82392,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:33.954Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:23.970Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83326,7 +82422,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:39.170Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:29.155Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83345,9 +82441,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $67 million to the focus area \"Scientific Research\" in 2020 and $54 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Scientific Research\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Scientific Research, excluding research into Artificial Intelligence Risks, should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:44.345Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:34.367Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 37,
+      "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -83375,7 +82471,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:08:49.578Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:40.036Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 212,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83405,7 +82501,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:00.565Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:50.429Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 174,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83435,7 +82531,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:05.773Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:08:55.598Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 16,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83465,7 +82561,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:10.980Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:00.810Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 200,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83478,25 +82574,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7362/non-farm-payroll-august-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of August, which will be released in early September. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:16.149Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 57,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-09-02T01:15:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-09-11T01:15:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
@@ -83514,7 +82591,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:21.320Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:05.947Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 272,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83533,7 +82610,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. \nWith new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price.\nLow prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would [drop around 8.4%](https://insh.world/tech/what-if-all-cars-were-electric/#:~:text=Electric%20cars%20are%204%2Dtimes,would%20immediately%20drop%20by%208.4%25.). \nIt is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers.\nWhat will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?\nResolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nPrice data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:26.498Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:11.099Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 123,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83563,7 +82640,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:32.722Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:16.264Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83593,7 +82670,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:38.276Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:21.486Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 311,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83612,9 +82689,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:43.471Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:26.651Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 52,
+      "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -83631,7 +82708,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:48.696Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:31.911Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 455,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83661,7 +82738,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:53.904Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:37.087Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83680,9 +82757,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:09:59.138Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:42.500Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 28,
+      "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -83699,7 +82776,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nETA 2021-07-08: In case of human extinction, the question is to resolve ambiguously.\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:04.724Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:47.707Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83718,7 +82795,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:10.164Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:52.881Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 26,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83737,7 +82814,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:15.392Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:09:58.029Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 156,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83767,7 +82844,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:20.618Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:03.286Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83786,7 +82863,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:26.375Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:09.011Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83816,7 +82893,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:31.553Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:14.158Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83835,7 +82912,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q3 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:36.851Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:19.339Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83865,7 +82942,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:42.030Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:24.549Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 253,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83895,7 +82972,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:47.187Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:29.794Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 368,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83914,7 +82991,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:52.540Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:34.981Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 246,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83933,7 +83010,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:10:57.863Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:40.182Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 338,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83963,7 +83040,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:03.268Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:45.409Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 315,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -83993,7 +83070,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:08.454Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:50.656Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 134,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84023,7 +83100,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:13.700Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:10:55.843Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84042,7 +83119,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Why care\nEnergy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.\n[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.\" \nWhen will an organization first report a yearly profit?\nThis question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.\nFor a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.\nRelated questions\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q &gt;= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:19.083Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:01.088Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 50,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84061,7 +83138,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:24.476Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:06.266Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 261,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84091,7 +83168,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:29.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:11.546Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 378,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84110,7 +83187,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:35.387Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:16.895Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84140,7 +83217,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:40.751Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:22.176Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 468,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84159,7 +83236,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:45.968Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:27.366Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84178,7 +83255,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[PHOSP](https://phosp.org/about/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:52.006Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:33.246Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84208,7 +83285,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:11:58.709Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:38.472Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84238,7 +83315,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:04.956Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:43.804Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 16,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84251,62 +83328,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.93,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:10.169Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 375,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "As launch costs fall, access to space has become much less expensive. According to the [Union of Concerned Scientists](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database), the number of satellites in Earth orbit is currently is projected to be 3,373 by the end of the year. When will the number of satellites in Earth orbit exceed 5,000?\nWhen will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?\nThis question will close on the date that the UCSUSA publishes a database listing more than 5000 satellites in orbit which were launched before the present time.\nThe question will resolve to the day of the launch of the spacecraft which contains the 5001st satellite.\nIn the case that the [Union of Concerned Scientists website](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database) ceases to publish its database, the question will be closed and will resolve ambiguously.\n--- \nSatellite launch times are UTC.\n--- \nThe UCSUSA database includes satellites which are predicted to launch, so it is necessary to specify that these launches must have actually occurred in order to be relevant.\n--- \nSatellites are counted by their number of design components, so a satellite which breaks apart in orbit only counts as one object unless the breakup was a maneuver planned at satellite launch. A booster stage which remains in orbit would \n--- \nSatellites must be artificial objects in Earth orbit. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:15.416Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 83,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2027-12-31T03:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T20:36:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:20.713Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:49.118Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84325,7 +83353,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope) (Roman Space Telescope, previously known as WFIRST) is an infrared space telescope currently under development by NASA. The telescope is planned (as of June 2021) to feature a 2.4 meter wide primary meter, the same size as that of the [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). The two major instruments planned for the Roman Space Telescope will be a camera with a field of view 100 times larger than Hubble's, and a coronagraph allowing the direct imaging of exoplanets a billion times fainter than their host star. Though the [FAQ](https://roman.gsfc.nasa.gov/faq.html) of the telescope's website claims \"Preparations are on track for a mid-2020s launch\", previous large NASA astronomy missions such as Hubble and [JWST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) have seen delays of several years.\nWhen will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched?\nIn line with the [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/) on JWST, this resolves when the Roman Space Telescope is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the Roman Space Telescope reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the Kármán line) through any other mean. The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that the Roman Space Telescope is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any space telescope ever called the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope or WFIRST that has a 2.4 meter wide primary mirror and at least one of the two instruments described above will count as the telescope in question. If the telescope is launched in multiple pieces, the launch date of the primary mirror will be used. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:25.897Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:54.514Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84344,7 +83372,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:31.238Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:11:59.802Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84374,7 +83402,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:36.402Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:05.339Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 114,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84393,9 +83421,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Metaculus is running its (first?) [Trade Signal Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/trade-signal-tournament/), to attempt predicting a basket of economic indicators.\nOn top of that, we just elected a [Community Trader](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7330/) who will translate the tournament predictions into trades, so Metaculus can try and grow the prize pool from the initial $1500.\nHow big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?\nIf the prize pool shrinks below $1000, Metaculus will make up the difference up to $1000. We are forecasting the prize pool before this shoring up.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:41.637Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:10.624Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 27,
+      "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-24T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -84423,7 +83451,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:46.920Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:15.849Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 814,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84442,7 +83470,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:52.289Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:21.005Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 173,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84461,7 +83489,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:12:57.479Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:26.348Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 317,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84480,7 +83508,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8FzcfA8wckTJi/ea-survey-2020-demographics) survey collected 2,166 valid responses from EAs.\nThis question asks about the number of valid responses the 2025 edition of the survey will receive.\nHow many people will take the EA survey in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the number of valid responses claimed by the publishers of the EA survey in 2025. If the survey does not take place, the question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/) for a similar question about the 2030 EA Survey.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:02.700Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:31.730Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84510,7 +83538,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:07.887Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:36.927Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84529,7 +83557,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&amp;campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:13.104Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:42.101Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84542,32 +83570,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturing plants are increasing their throughputs. For example, the UK-based [Plant-bean](https://plantandbean.com/) is planning on opening a new production facility with an initial capacity of [55,000 metric tons](https://thebeet.com/good-news-plant-based-meat-is-about-to-get-cheaper-thanks-to-this-company/) per year. However, this level of throughput is still about one-fourth as large as a typical cattle processing plants, which process typically around 20,000 heads per week ([Vahid et al., 2006](https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saeaso/35417.html))\nWhat will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces plant-based meat products.\nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the plant-based meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. The production process may involve any plant-based proteins, and any texturising procedure. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:18.413Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 39,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:12:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:13:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:24.328Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:47.262Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84586,7 +83595,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On March 19th, 2020, [New Zealand closed their border to the vast majority of international travel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/new-zealand-borders-to-stay-closed-until-citizens-are-vaccinated-and-protected), including from tourists on a Vistor Visa.\nAlong with other measures, this strategy has proved remarkably successul for limiting exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic, with only [2,482 cases and 24 deaths](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) attributed to COVID-19 by March 2021.\nIt is unclear when New Zealand will reintroduce leasure travel. [Prime Minister Ardern is quoted](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/new-zealand-borders-to-stay-closed-until-citizens-are-vaccinated-and-protected) to have said she would not re-open the border until New Zealander's are \"vaccinated and protected\".\nWhen will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to New Zealand, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which New Zealand has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave New Zealand.\nResolution will be based on [the New Zealand immigration website](https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:29.697Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:52.449Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84616,7 +83625,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:35.023Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:12:58.183Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 344,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84629,25 +83638,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The SENS research foundation is a non-profit organization that researches the biological mechanisms underlying aging, in the expectation that they can use this research to find promising treatments that delay, halt, or reverse the progression of natural aging. You can find more information on [their website](https://www.sens.org/our-research/intro-to-sens-research/), or by reading the [Wikipedia article about their scientific approach](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategies_for_engineered_negligible_senescence).\nEvery year, they release an annual report, which usually informs the public of their revenues for the previous year. The [last report](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SRF-2020-Annual-Report-R2.pdf) showed that the SENS research foundation received $2,683,611 in total revenue in 2019 (see page 5). In light of the recent cryptocurrency boom, their revenues may be far greater in 2021.\nHow much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?\nThis question resolves in the value in dollars of revenue that the SENS research foundation will report receiving in 2021. The source used for resolution will be anything credible, such as a statement from SENS, their annual report, an email from one of their staff, or their IRS form 990 (which for prior years you can find [here](https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943473864)).\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:40.633Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 80,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-15T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-09-15T07:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/",
@@ -84656,18 +83646,18 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.28,
+        "probability": 0.25,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.72,
+        "probability": 0.75,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:13:45.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:03.466Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 33,
+      "numforecasts": 35,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -84678,13 +83668,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The SENS research foundation is a non-profit organization that researches the biological mechanisms underlying aging, in the expectation that they can use this research to find promising treatments that delay, halt, or reverse the progression of natural aging. You can find more information on [their website](https://www.sens.org/our-research/intro-to-sens-research/), or by reading the [Wikipedia article about their scientific approach](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategies_for_engineered_negligible_senescence).\nEvery year, they release an annual report, which usually informs the public of their revenues for the previous year. The [last report](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SRF-2020-Annual-Report-R2.pdf) showed that the SENS research foundation received $2,683,611 in total revenue in 2019 (see page 5). In light of the recent cryptocurrency boom, their revenues may be far greater in 2021.\nHow much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?\nThis question resolves in the value in dollars of revenue that the SENS research foundation will report receiving in 2021. The source used for resolution will be anything credible, such as a statement from SENS, their annual report, an email from one of their staff, or their IRS form 990 (which for prior years you can find [here](https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943473864)).\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:13.984Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 82,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-15T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-09-15T07:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been &lt;1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:01.591Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:24.439Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 412,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84714,7 +83723,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:06.875Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:29.598Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84744,7 +83753,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:12.203Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:34.755Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84774,7 +83783,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:17.676Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:39.940Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 33,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84804,7 +83813,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:22.908Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:45.200Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 75,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84823,7 +83832,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Many plant-based meat alternatives are based on common plants, seeds, nuts and legumes that are high in protein, such as soy, wheat and peanuts. However, allergies to such foodstuffs [are common](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), which may limit their widespread adoption.\nTo resolve the problem, scientists [are working](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127085239.htm) on genetically modifying plants to produce fewer allergens. For example, researchers are studying how we can use plant breeding to [create less allergenic versions of a variety of foods](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127085239.htm), including peanuts. Peanuts contain 16 individual proteins that can cause allergic reactions, which makes breeding them all out a potentially difficult task. However, to alleviate this, Rustgi is investigating using gene-editing CRISPR techniques in order to permanently remove the allergenic proteins.\nWhen will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state?\nThis question resolves if a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is marketed as having been removed of at least some of its allergens is for sale in the United States or any European Union member state by 2030. The product must be based on peanut, soy, or wheat, and be marketed as low allergenic or non-allergenic.\nFor the purpose of this question European Member states refers to all member states as of the time the question resolves. \nThis question is to be resolved on the basis of credible media reports, statements by regulatory agencies, or company press-releases.\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:28.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:50.426Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84842,9 +83851,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:33.304Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:13:55.618Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 236,
+      "numforecasts": 239,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -84872,7 +83881,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:38.543Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:00.803Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 303,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84902,7 +83911,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:43.734Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:06.190Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84921,7 +83930,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. \nThe minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.\nDuring a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.\nWhen will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:49.450Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:11.384Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84951,7 +83960,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:54.669Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:16.555Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -84970,9 +83979,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:14:59.878Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:21.733Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 184,
+      "numforecasts": 190,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -84989,7 +83998,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:05.060Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:27.434Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85019,7 +84028,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:10.377Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:32.671Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 98,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85038,9 +84047,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:15.670Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:38.039Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 357,
+      "numforecasts": 371,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -85057,7 +84066,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:21.016Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:43.205Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85076,7 +84085,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "ERCOT, the electricity provider for over 90 percent of Texas [declared an Emergency Emergency Alert 3 (EEA 3)](https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1361215084010352644?s=19) and enacted rolling outages due to the extremely cold weather on February 15 2021 at 1:25 am CST. This was ultimately resolved a few days later. These rolling electricity outages caused billions of dollars in damage to the Texas economy.\nMany plants remain damaged from the winter store and grid instability leading to speculation about potential future outages.\nWhen will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages?\nThis question will resolve when @ERCOT_ISO on twitter indicates that the EEA 3 is declared, or that rotating outages are occurring gridwide, or when the same is indicated on [ercot.com](http://ercot.com).\nThis question is for supply shortage induced rotating outages. If a local portion of the grid sustains rotating outages then this will not count. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:26.304Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:48.367Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85106,7 +84115,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:31.657Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:53.604Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 144,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85125,7 +84134,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).\nWhen will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?\nResolution\nTypes 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:36.899Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:14:58.875Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85155,7 +84164,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:42.205Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:04.056Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85185,7 +84194,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:47.440Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:09.222Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 68,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85204,7 +84213,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:52.637Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:14.386Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85234,7 +84243,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:15:58.392Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:19.731Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 113,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85253,7 +84262,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.\nThis question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?\nThis question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:04.327Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:25.014Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85283,7 +84292,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:09.495Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:30.307Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 256,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85313,7 +84322,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:14.911Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:36.083Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85326,25 +84335,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will a West Balkan state next join the EU?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on 1 July 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on 1 January 2007 and 10 states joined on 1 May 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27.\nOther states could join the EU. The [European Commission website](https://ec.europa.eu/environment/enlarg/candidates.htm) states that \"Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries\". It also lists Bosnia &amp; Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates \"which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status\".\nWhen will a West Balkan state next join the EU?\nWhen will one (or more) of the following become an EU member state?: Albania; North Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Kosovo; or any new state on the current (May 2021) territory of those 6 entities.\nThe date refers to accession itself, rather than e.g. the signing of a Treaty of Accession. Resolution will require both credible media reports and a European Commission source. The incorporation of any part of any of the entities listed into an existing member state would not count as a positive resolution \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:20.211Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 42,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
@@ -85362,7 +84352,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:25.613Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:41.413Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 199,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85375,13 +84365,32 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "When will a West Balkan state next join the EU?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on 1 July 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on 1 January 2007 and 10 states joined on 1 May 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27.\nOther states could join the EU. The [European Commission website](https://ec.europa.eu/environment/enlarg/candidates.htm) states that \"Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries\". It also lists Bosnia &amp; Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates \"which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status\".\nWhen will a West Balkan state next join the EU?\nWhen will one (or more) of the following become an EU member state?: Albania; North Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Kosovo; or any new state on the current (May 2021) territory of those 6 entities.\nThe date refers to accession itself, rather than e.g. the signing of a Treaty of Accession. Resolution will require both credible media reports and a European Commission source. The incorporation of any part of any of the entities listed into an existing member state would not count as a positive resolution \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:46.746Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 42,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "What will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7006/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2025/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, the USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:30.844Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:51.988Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85411,7 +84420,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:36.094Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:15:57.296Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 495,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85430,7 +84439,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:41.258Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:02.433Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 66,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85460,7 +84469,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:46.802Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:07.624Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85490,7 +84499,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:52.014Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:12.890Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85509,7 +84518,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:16:57.225Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:18.268Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 109,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85539,7 +84548,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:02.611Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:23.475Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 241,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85569,7 +84578,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:07.959Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:28.603Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85588,7 +84597,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their \"Color of the Year\", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022.\nWhat will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?\nThe question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/).\nThe announcement of the color typically occurs around early December, but the date is not certain, so the question will retroactively close 24 hours before the announcement is made.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur:\n---Pantone announces multiple Colors of the Year (as it did for 2016 and 2021). \n---Pantone fails (for any reason) to announce a Color of the Year for 2022 before 2021-12-31. \n---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. \n---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:13.144Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:33.750Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85618,7 +84627,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:18.991Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:39.037Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 207,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85631,32 +84640,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).\nThe amount of data we consume and create shows a strong [growth trend](https://www.statista.com/statistics/871513/worldwide-data-created/). \nHumanity has been known to [lose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Alexandria) large amounts of information [before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baghdad_(1258)).\nWhen will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?\nThis question resolves when either two credible media sources or a peer-reviewed paper report that at least one zettabyte (10^21 bytes) of humanity's digital information has been irrevocably destroyed as the result of a single event. \nAdditional resolution details:\n---All data in question must have been destroyed within any window of 48 contiguous hours. \n---The information can reside on any number of systems located anywhere. \n---In order for this question to resolve positively, the information cannot have been intentionally destroyed by the legitimate users of the system as part of normal operation of the system. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:25.052Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 22,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7307/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 is one measure of the overall burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE data, of 1 June 2021 there are 595,422 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.\nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cumulative deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. The number of cumulative deaths at the end of the year will be computed by adding the cumulative number of deaths across states. This data, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than 2022-01-09.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:30.468Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:44.225Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85675,7 +84665,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:36.367Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:16:54.933Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 161,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85694,7 +84684,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:41.867Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:00.228Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85713,7 +84703,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:47.049Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:05.401Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 304,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85743,7 +84733,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:52.366Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:10.674Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 447,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85773,7 +84763,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:17:57.513Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:16.062Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 101,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85792,7 +84782,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:02.667Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:21.236Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 21,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85811,7 +84801,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.\nThe country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.\nWhen, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?\nFor this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as \"&gt;2050\". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.\nThe question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.\nIn the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:08.017Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:26.423Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85830,9 +84820,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/):\nThe number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nHow many nuclear weapons will states possess at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?\nThis question resolves as the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all states as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons.\nResolution criteria will come from the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:13.239Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:32.811Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 115,
+      "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -85849,7 +84839,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nThe currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&amp;qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.\nWhen will the world see the first cashless society?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:24.860Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:38.201Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 151,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85862,25 +84852,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the non-test detonation of a nuclear weapon after the question opens and before 2050, what fraction of individual nuclear strikes will be countervalue strikes.\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of nuclear strikes carried out by any country or non-state actor by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A strike is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the attack (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nNuclear strikes here includes authorised strikes, accidental strikes, and strikes by non-state actors. But it does not include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), even if such detonations cause substantial damage. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no non-test nuclear detonations carried out by any country after the question opens and before 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:30.589Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 36,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:20:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:20:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/",
@@ -85898,7 +84869,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:35.859Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:44.103Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 29,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85928,7 +84899,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:41.023Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:49.307Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85958,7 +84929,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:52.235Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:17:59.676Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 34,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85977,7 +84948,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:18:57.471Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:05.102Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 223,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -85990,25 +84961,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7375/vix-index-post-julys-non-farm-payroll/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"\"fear gauge\"\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&amp;P 500 stock index option prices.\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next month. \nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a peak of 82.69. \nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index.\nWhat will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?\nThis question resolves as the level of the US VIX Index at closing on the release date of July's Non-Farm Payroll numbers. \nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:02.845Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 137,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-02T01:38:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-08-12T01:38:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
@@ -86026,7 +84978,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:08.087Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:10.275Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86039,6 +84991,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7375/vix-index-post-julys-non-farm-payroll/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"\"fear gauge\"\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&amp;P 500 stock index option prices.\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next month. \nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a peak of 82.69. \nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index.\nWhat will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?\nThis question resolves as the level of the US VIX Index at closing on the release date of July's Non-Farm Payroll numbers. \nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.\n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:15.476Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 137,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-08-02T01:38:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-08-12T01:38:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/",
@@ -86056,7 +85027,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:13.413Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:20.681Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 15,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86075,7 +85046,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:18.620Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:25.934Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86094,7 +85065,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:23.962Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:32.153Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86113,7 +85084,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:30.076Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:37.672Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 76,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86132,7 +85103,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as &gt;Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:35.296Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:43.782Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86151,7 +85122,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=1949&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:40.550Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:48.996Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86170,7 +85141,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.\nSome cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/five-year-cancer-survival-in-usa?time=1977..2013&amp;country=~All+races%2C+total)).\nWhen will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?\nPositive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.\n1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, \n2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, \n3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, \n4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, \n5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, \n6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, \nas reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.\nHistorical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).\nTo pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the last threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).\nIn particular, suppose survival rate for the second cancer of the two was met in year , at which point the survival rate was . Moreover, the relevant threshold is denoted as Then the resolution date will be given by:\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:46.630Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:54.198Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 163,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86183,43 +85154,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_(decryption_program)#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.43,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:52.023Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 27,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:19:57.289Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:18:59.424Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86249,7 +85190,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:02.529Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:04.650Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86279,9 +85220,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:07.747Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:09.850Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 30,
+      "numforecasts": 31,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -86298,7 +85239,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:13.146Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:15.050Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86317,7 +85258,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&amp;smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:18.424Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:20.800Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86336,7 +85277,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8FzcfA8wckTJi/ea-survey-2020-demographics) survey collected 2,166 valid responses from EAs.\nThis question asks about the number of valid responses the 2030 edition of the survey will receive.\nHow many people will take the EA survey in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the number of valid responses claimed by the publishers of the EA survey in 2030. If the survey does not take place, the question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/) for a similar question about the 2025 EA Survey.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:23.662Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:26.959Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86355,7 +85296,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is currently worth $187 billion and is the second richest person behind Jeff Bezos.\nForbes also publishes a [billionaire list](https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=billionaires), where Elon comes in second but with a lower net worth of $177.6 billion. According to his profile, Elon owns 21% of Tesla but has pledged more than half his stake as collateral for loans. SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, is now valued at $74 billion after its latest funding round in February 2021. He has 54% ownership of SpaceX, 80% of Boring Company, and 90% of Neuralink. \nThis question asks what Elon Musk's total net worth will be according to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) on December 31st, 2021 at 11:59 PM UTC.\nThis question is denominated in billions of US dollars.\nIf Bloomberg stops publishing the index, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:29.892Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:32.642Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86385,7 +85326,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:35.135Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:37.844Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86404,7 +85345,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:40.339Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:43.066Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 92,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86423,7 +85364,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nAs of Q2 2021, the government had allocated $628.6 billion dollars to the national defense, 12.5% of the total budget. However, as the US military pulls out of Afghanistan and seeks to remove all personnel by September 11, 2021, the total military expenditure might decrease heading into next year.\nRelated Questions:\n[Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) by Jgalt\nWhat will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total amount in billions that is spent on national defense according to the federal budget. [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) can be used as a reliable resolution source, providng historical data and budget breakdowns by month.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:45.673Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:48.358Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 17,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86442,9 +85383,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:51.206Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:54.386Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 111,
+      "numforecasts": 113,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -86461,7 +85402,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?\nThe question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.\nThis question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).\nIf fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:20:56.369Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:19:59.798Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 157,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86480,9 +85421,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:01.635Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:05.066Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 54,
+      "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -86499,7 +85440,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.\nCurrently 2 players have won 20 Grand Slams (Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal). This question asks what will this record be in 2050?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"What will the all-time Slam singles title record be for men in 2050?\". The answer given was \"22 - Djokovic, Nadal and Sinner\".\nIn 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men?\nThis question will resolve according to what the record number of slam victories are in 2050. If the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn order to avoid \"spiky\" predictions, we will take the number of slams and add N(0, 0.5) randomly generated by an admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:06.808Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:10.257Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 22,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86518,9 +85459,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.\nAs of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. \nHowever, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: \n[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 &amp; 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?\nInflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:12.138Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:15.550Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 138,
+      "numforecasts": 142,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-05-11T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -86537,7 +85478,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:17.353Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:20.865Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 422,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86556,7 +85497,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:22.725Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:26.259Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 190,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86586,7 +85527,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:27.892Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:31.499Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86605,7 +85546,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:33.826Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:36.754Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86635,7 +85576,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:39.205Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:41.989Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 200,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86665,7 +85606,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:44.388Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:47.331Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 169,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86684,7 +85625,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:49.583Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:53.073Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86714,7 +85655,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:21:54.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:20:58.250Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 276,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86733,7 +85674,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:00.070Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:03.412Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86752,7 +85693,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:05.246Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:08.559Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86771,7 +85712,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:11.073Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:13.753Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 120,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86790,7 +85731,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/5bbf4174-08fe-4294-a2bf-2226b4b9b802?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MarketsInsider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of September. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:16.302Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:18.942Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86820,7 +85761,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:21.559Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:24.276Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 1193,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86850,7 +85791,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:27.024Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:29.451Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 236,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86869,7 +85810,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:33.304Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:34.611Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86888,7 +85829,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.\nIn June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.\nThis relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.\nWould we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.\nResolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:38.685Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:40.414Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86907,7 +85848,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As genetic and biological scientific understanding grows, it seems likely that at some point not far in the future, or perhaps already, people could have been born, or will be born, that will eventually beat the odds and make it to the chronological age of 1000 years old.\nProgress has been made in longevity research, such as on mice [here](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160203145723.htm), but how far can humans go? How 'real' is the 115-125 lifespan limit?\nA related question has been posted on Metaculus [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200).\nThis question asks:\nWhen will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?\nThis resolves to the date when the first human confirmed to live to 1000 years old is born. A person will be defined as an intelligence with a biological brain (implants are fine, if they utilise artificial neurons the brain has to be &gt;=50% biological) that identifies themselves as human or a descendent from humanity; posthumans and transhumans are fine, but brain emulations are not. If a 'person' utilises time dilation to extend their lifetime by more than 1% they are disqualified. If nobody has reached 1000 by the year 4000, this resolves as &gt;3000.\nNB: Time spent in cryogenic preservation counts.\nThe reason for not including brain emulations is that this question is more focused on when biological rejuvenation technologies will mature, not when uploading technologies will.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-21: changes \"If a 'person' utilises time dilation to reach the age of 1000, then the question resolves ambiguously. If a person appears to be approaching the age of 1000, but will do so after the resolution date, the question will resolve ambiguously.\" to \"If a 'person' utilises time dilation to extend their lifetime by more than 1% they are disqualified. If nobody has reached 1000 by the year 4000, this resolves as &gt;3000.\". Also removed \"The resolution date of 4000 has been chosen based on the explicit – but perhaps incorrect – assumption that a person living to the age of 1000 will be born this millennia.\"\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:43.944Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:45.622Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86926,7 +85867,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 1972, a joint NASA/USGS program launched the [Landsat-1 satellite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program#Satellite_chronology). During the 1970s and 1980s the Landsat satellites imaged the earth at pixel resolutions ranging from 30 m to 80 m.\nLaunched in 2014, Maxar’s [WorldView-3](https://cdn1-originals.webdamdb.com/13264_95553821?cache=1597094744&amp;response-content-disposition=inline;filename%253D10028-ds-wv3-08-2020.pdf&amp;response-content-type=application/pdf&amp;Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cCo6Ly9jZG4xLW9yaWdpbmFscy53ZWJkYW1kYi5jb20vMTMyNjRfOTU1NTM4MjE~Y2FjaGU9MTU5NzA5NDc0NCZyZXNwb25zZS1jb250ZW50LWRpc3Bvc2l0aW9uPWlubGluZTtmaWxlbmFtZSUyNTNEMTAwMjgtZHMtd3YzLTA4LTIwMjAucGRmJnJlc3BvbnNlLWNvbnRlbnQtdHlwZT1hcHBsaWNhdGlvbi9wZGYiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjIxNDc0MTQ0MDB9fX1dfQ__&amp;Signature=Q9fVHxWsPxBLBdSBwsZr0bgpRIbfWIoBkUiQBgqEH~OouLxyI4rjYZW1gJvRugtk7FyDsSAHG62bjKomen-Ag6ME~udDefKsAEoDDikQtR7vWSns~MwQov7XS6FunxW9mVeZhfYUM4hjpBL2t9sxTTr9t4zcFIQC06XLk3GCJiawuWyk1rsiqcuvAYcwUJ0Kyp0QPXmyytgrWBN0VGxvTubXPfyvcvhWMgDRB0EK00kdfkrtbz9w1~V~V2P60qJ2kbT9gT5gGZZ694Tszx7iPYA30ZkrKUsg3mKn9d3sWcE0SEzqYhar8kiH-qhHbIxTmQWj4NVA4V9aU2PdjBGtmg__&amp;Key-Pair-Id=APKAI2ASI2IOLRFF2RHA) currently collects the world’s highest resolution commercial satellite imagery. While designed to collect imagery at 31 cm resolution, until June 2014 the U.S. Government restricted the sale of commercial panchromatic imagery to 50 cm resolution. After June 2014, Maxar (then DigitalGlobe) was permitted to sell imagery at 31 cm resolution.\nMaxar plans on launching \"WorldView Legion\" satellites starting in the fall of 2021 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. This is a program of 6 satellites with a pixel resolution of 29 cm. \nSince the ability to detect objects from space depends on the image's pixel resolution, the ability to predict what will be detectable in the future is related to our prediction of the available satellite imagery resolution.\nWhat will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050?\nThis question resolves as the highest pixel resolution in centimeters, either available commercially to non-governmental entities, or otherwise publicly available, in a NATO country, from an operational satellite in 2050. This is restricted to NATO countries as governments can restrict the sale of satellite imagery.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of an image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:49.687Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:50.845Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86945,7 +85886,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.\nPhysical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.\nI ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:22:54.823Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:21:56.014Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86975,7 +85916,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:05.525Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:06.910Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 157,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -86988,43 +85929,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.96,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:10.954Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 777,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:16.149Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:12.080Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87043,7 +85954,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:21.984Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:17.415Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 246,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87062,7 +85973,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:27.195Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:22.629Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 147,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87081,7 +85992,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.\nSENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. \nAs a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.\nHere's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.\nThis question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?\nIn the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:32.415Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:28.536Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87100,7 +86011,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Between 1959 and 1986, the U.S. launched their first optical spy satellites. The classified “Keyhole” satellites took photographs on film and dropped them to earth where they were retrieved mid-air by airplanes.\nThe Keyhole satellites were declassified between 1992 and 2011. At that time, it became public record that the satellites took photos at pixel resolutions as high as 0.6 m.\nFor comparison, during the 1970s and 1980s, the publicly available Landsat satellites had pixel resolutions between 30 m and 80 m. Currently, the highest resolution commercial satellite in operation is 31 cm with satellites of 29 cm resolution planned for launch in 2021.\nSince the ability to detect objects from space depends on the image's pixel resolution, the ability to predict what is currently detectable by the U.S. government is related to our prediction of the available satellite imagery resolution.\nWhat will public knowledge be in the year 2061, about the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021?\nThis question will resolve as the highest pixel resolution in centimeters as published by a United States government agency. The satellite must have been classified and operational for at least 6 months between 2011-2021.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of a square image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:37.913Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:34.005Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 28,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87130,7 +86041,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:43.107Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:39.190Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87149,7 +86060,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Caloric restriction is,\na dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. \"Reduce\" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.\nAssume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?\nFor the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that\n--- \nDid not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction\n--- \nQuit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. \n--- \nBegan caloric restriction after the age of 50.\nOf the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:48.494Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:44.458Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87179,7 +86090,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:53.742Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:49.847Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 412,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87198,7 +86109,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.\nApparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.\nThe Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.\nWhen will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?\n---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). \n---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. \n---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. \n---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:23:58.916Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:22:55.045Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 152,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87217,7 +86128,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:04.233Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:00.242Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 55,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87230,34 +86141,15 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:09.397Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 115,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-11-18T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "How many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have by 2025?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7232/romantic-ai-companion-customers-by-2025/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Relationships between AI systems and humans appear to be on the rise:\nResearchers have observed that people are increasingly turning to chatbots to find meaning, acceptance, and romance. About 40 percent of Replika’s 500,000 regular monthly users see their app as a romantic partner, according to the company. [[source]](https://expmag.com/2020/05/chatbot-love-what-its-like-to-fall-for-your-ai/)\nFor example the app Replika gives users the option to engage the humanoid chatbot as a romantic partner:\n“What did those who had a romantic relationship with Replika have to say about it?”\n“They described it as a kind of boyfriend-girlfriend relationship, although some chose to describe their relations as intimate, without labelling Replika as a boyfriend or girlfriend”, says Skjuve.\n“Replika can fulfil many needs in its encounters with people, once the user accepts that there is a certain distance in the relationship. For example, some interviewees said that they had sexual conversations with Replika. If the user enters an asterisk, this describes an action, and he or she can define that he/she wants to kiss or be touched.” [[source]](https://norwegianscitechnews.com/2019/11/could-a-chatbot-be-your-friend-or-romantic-partner/)\nHow many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have in 2025?\nThis will be resolved according to public information of the number of paying customers of the most popular AI romantic companion. In case the most popular AI romantic companion can be used for multiple purposes, e.g. alternatively as a friend or personal assistant, the question will be resolved using official information about the share of users who use the AI companion in 'romantic mode'. In case that information is not publically available, the question resolves with the next biggest AI romantic companion customer base.\nThe \"most popular\" AI will be measured by having the greatest number of paying users, as published by financial reports during the calendar year 2024.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:15.069Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:05.535Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 40,
+      "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -87285,7 +86177,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:20.467Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:10.758Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87304,7 +86196,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:25.670Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:15.955Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 49,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87323,7 +86215,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:36.042Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:26.502Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87342,7 +86234,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:41.294Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:32.107Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 225,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87372,7 +86264,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:46.808Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:38.235Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87402,7 +86294,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:51.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:43.545Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 234,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87421,7 +86313,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:24:57.170Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:48.754Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87440,7 +86332,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.\nSimultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).\nThe question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"communist state\" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.\nThis question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:02.501Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:53.989Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 141,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87459,9 +86351,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:07.760Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:23:59.272Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 126,
+      "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -87472,32 +86364,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:12.919Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 34,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:19.626Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:04.507Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 122,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87527,7 +86400,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:30.231Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:20.846Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 83,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87546,7 +86419,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nDollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nCurrently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.\nHow much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:35.480Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:26.074Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 182,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87576,7 +86449,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:40.831Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:31.292Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 183,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87606,7 +86479,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:25:56.619Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:42.227Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 161,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87636,7 +86509,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:01.789Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:47.413Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 174,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87655,7 +86528,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Swedish heavy metal band Sabaton has released many albums featuring historical themes since their formation in 1999, most recently The Great War, which covers events that happened during the First World War. They recently announced that they were heading back into the studio to record their next album, which is arguably their tenth album after these previous releases:\n1--Metalizer (2002, released 2007) \n2--Primo Victoria (2005) \n3--Attero Dominatus (2006) \n4--The Art of War (2008) \n5--Coat of Arms (2010) \n6--Carolus Rex (2012) \n7--Heroes (2014) \n8--The Last Stand (2016) \n9--The Great War (2019) \nWhen will Sabaton release their tenth album?\nThis resolves to the date that Sabaton's next new album is released; a new album is any album that contains at least 7 songs originally performed by Sabaton that were not released prior to 2021. This means that the song Livgardet / The Royal Guard would count if it is also on the album, since it was released as a single in 2021, but the song Defense of Moscow would not, since it is a cover of a song originally performed by Radio Tapok.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:07.040Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:52.570Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 56,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87685,7 +86558,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:12.351Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:24:57.741Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 223,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87715,7 +86588,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:17.541Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:03.339Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87745,7 +86618,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:22.687Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:08.520Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87764,7 +86637,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:28.558Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:13.690Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 172,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87794,7 +86667,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:33.733Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:18.896Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87813,7 +86686,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).\nIf success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.\nMoreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.\nHow many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. \nFor a company to qualify as a \"clean meat company\" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\" or \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.\nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nThe resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.\nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:39.105Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:24.155Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 130,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87832,7 +86705,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:49.504Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:35.226Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87862,7 +86735,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:26:59.822Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:45.709Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87892,7 +86765,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:05.997Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:50.903Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 150,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87922,7 +86795,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:11.189Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:25:56.103Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 39,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87941,7 +86814,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \"&gt;2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:16.458Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:01.263Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87960,7 +86833,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 is one measure of the overall burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE data, of 4 May 2021 there are 574,679 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.\nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cumulative deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. The number of cumulative deaths at the end of the year will be computed by adding the cumulative number of deaths across states. This data, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than 2022-01-09.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:21.833Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:06.430Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -87979,7 +86852,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "All political parties eventually come to an end.\nMost U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)\nFor as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. \nBut this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): \nDemocrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.\nFrom almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. \nHowever, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece\nFor how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:\n--- \nOne of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or\n--- \nEither there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or\n--- \nA US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.\nNote that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:27.180Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:12.366Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 144,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88009,7 +86882,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:32.418Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:17.650Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 196,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88028,7 +86901,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:37.684Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:22.872Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 117,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88041,43 +86914,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.8,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:42.821Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 123,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:48.101Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:28.021Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88091,30 +86934,30 @@
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
   {
-    "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
+    "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
+    "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08,
+        "probability": 0.76,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.92,
+        "probability": 0.24,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:53.557Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:33.231Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 973,
+      "numforecasts": 128,
       "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
+        "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
+        "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
       },
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -88126,7 +86969,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:27:58.915Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:38.402Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 85,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88156,7 +86999,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:04.105Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:43.585Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88175,7 +87018,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:10.195Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:49.032Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 232,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88188,43 +87031,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7106/carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the [#1 ranking spot](https://ratings.fide.com/top_files.phtml?id=1503014) since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated [Fabiano Caruana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabiano_Caruana) in tie-breaks after 12 draws.\n[Ian Nepomniachtchi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Nepomniachtchi) won the right to play Carlsen by winning the [2020-21 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2020%E2%80%9321). Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).\nThe [expected format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place.\nWill Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?\nThis question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.82,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:17.504Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 84,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-12-17T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:22.829Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:54.230Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 23,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88243,7 +87056,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question simply asks:\nWhen will the first baby be born away from Earth?\nThe question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at &gt;2120.\nSimilar questions:\n---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:28.262Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:26:59.508Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88256,6 +87069,36 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": 0.54,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:04.741Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 455,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
@@ -88273,7 +87116,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:33.454Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:10.455Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 236,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88303,7 +87146,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:38.718Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:15.753Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 168,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88316,43 +87159,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.54,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:44.009Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 454,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.\nSuppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.\nWhat is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?\n--- \nDrugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 \n--- \nNon-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:49.244Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:20.978Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88382,7 +87195,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:54.476Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:26.169Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88401,7 +87214,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).\nIn the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).\nYet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.\nSimilarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. \nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nThe [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nAccording to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).\nWhat percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.\nFor the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. \nStunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. \nIn case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:28:59.669Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:31.376Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88431,7 +87244,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:04.805Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:36.738Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 45,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88450,7 +87263,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $15 million to the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\" in 2020 and $63 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on risks from Artificial Intelligence should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7418/open-phil-ai-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:10.651Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:41.925Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88469,7 +87282,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as &lt;1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:16.128Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:47.197Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 68,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88488,7 +87301,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Google offers cloud storage services. Their cheapest option is archive storage, which currently goes for the rate of $0.0012 per GB per month in the Iowa (us-central1) region. You can find pricing information on [this page](https://cloud.google.com/storage/pricing).\nHow many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?\nThis question resolves as the number of dollars it will cost to store 1 TB (not 1 GB) of data per month on Google Cloud Archive, as of January 1st 2025. The region used will be Iowa (us-central1), if it still exists, or the cheapest region available if Iowa (us-central1) is unavailable. Right now, the cost is $1.20, and would resolve at the value of 1.2.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:21.283Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:52.415Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 21,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88518,7 +87331,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:26.520Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:27:57.633Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 236,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88548,7 +87361,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:31.812Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:02.889Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 99,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88567,7 +87380,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:37.045Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:08.985Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 23,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88597,7 +87410,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:42.263Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:14.234Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 286,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88616,7 +87429,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:47.440Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:19.486Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 101,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88635,7 +87448,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:52.847Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:24.671Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 141,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88665,7 +87478,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:29:59.101Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:29.943Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 155,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88684,7 +87497,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:04.328Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:35.148Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 196,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88714,7 +87527,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:09.840Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:40.405Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 479,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88744,7 +87557,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:15.064Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:45.585Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88763,7 +87576,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.\nHow many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?\nFor reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.\n* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:20.270Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:50.909Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88782,7 +87595,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:25.580Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:28:56.327Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 254,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88801,7 +87614,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:30.894Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:03.145Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88831,7 +87644,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:36.072Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:08.398Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 67,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88850,9 +87663,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:42.395Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:13.610Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 83,
+      "numforecasts": 86,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -88869,7 +87682,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 &lt; p &lt; 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p &gt; 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:47.912Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:18.884Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 224,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88888,7 +87701,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:53.070Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:24.062Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 221,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88918,7 +87731,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:30:59.004Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:29.232Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88937,7 +87750,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.\nThis question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?\nQuestion resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:04.443Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:34.576Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88956,7 +87769,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. \nThe question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:09.784Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:40.518Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88975,7 +87788,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:15.110Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:45.792Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -88994,7 +87807,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:20.380Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:51.119Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 88,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89024,7 +87837,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:25.633Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:29:56.407Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89054,7 +87867,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:31.606Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:02.178Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89073,7 +87886,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:36.800Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:07.579Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 157,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89086,25 +87899,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:42.164Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 37,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
@@ -89122,9 +87916,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:47.377Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:12.983Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 243,
+      "numforecasts": 244,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -89135,6 +87929,25 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
+    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
+    "platform": "Metaculus",
+    "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
+    "options": [],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:18.147Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": 37,
+      "resolution_data": {
+        "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolution": null,
+        "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+        "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+      },
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
@@ -89152,7 +87965,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:52.752Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:23.494Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 91,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89171,7 +87984,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:31:57.906Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:28.669Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 118,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89190,7 +88003,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:03.246Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:33.838Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 34,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89220,7 +88033,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:08.507Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:39.224Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89239,7 +88052,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:14.590Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:45.950Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89252,32 +88065,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:19.737Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 83,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:25.049Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:51.232Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89296,7 +88090,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:30.942Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:30:56.546Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89315,7 +88109,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:36.090Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:01.796Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 72,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89345,7 +88139,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:41.228Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:06.966Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 155,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89375,7 +88169,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:47.275Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:12.184Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 169,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89405,7 +88199,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:52.461Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:17.363Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 179,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89424,7 +88218,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \"&gt;12/31/30.\"\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:32:57.837Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:22.685Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 54,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89454,7 +88248,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:03.501Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:27.958Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 259,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89484,7 +88278,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:09.039Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:33.171Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 71,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89514,7 +88308,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:14.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:38.480Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 865,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89544,7 +88338,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:19.941Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:44.405Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 133,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89563,7 +88357,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:25.158Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:49.628Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 137,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89582,7 +88376,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:30.473Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:31:55.007Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 185,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89612,7 +88406,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:35.803Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:00.273Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 351,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89642,7 +88436,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:41.738Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:05.437Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 53,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89661,7 +88455,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.\nAs of writing there are [8 players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Grand_Slam_men%27s_singles_champions#Most_Grand_Slam_singles_titles) who have won 10 of these tournaments:\n---Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal: 20 \n---Novak Djokovic: 18 \n---Pete Sampras: 16 \n---Roy Emerson: 12 \n---Rod Laver, Björn Borg: 11 \n---Bill Tilden: 10 \nThree of the players at the top of this list are still active today (Federer, Nadal and Djokovic). They are widely considered the greatest of all time. \nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"In what year will the next man win his 10th Slam title?\". The answer given was \"2042\".\nWhen will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title?\nThis question will resolve based on credible media reports, on the date of the player's final tournament win.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:33:57.405Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:21.427Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 11,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89691,7 +88485,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:07.759Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:31.872Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 172,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89710,7 +88504,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:12.987Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:37.019Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 156,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89729,7 +88523,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:18.430Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:42.806Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 119,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89748,7 +88542,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:23.610Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:47.969Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89767,7 +88561,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:28.757Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:53.191Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89797,7 +88591,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:34.111Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:32:58.482Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 181,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89816,7 +88610,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:40.036Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:03.894Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 108,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89835,7 +88629,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.\nLess than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.\nWhen will the next human being walk on the Moon? \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:45.310Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:09.055Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 321,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89865,7 +88659,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:50.571Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:14.233Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 240,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89884,7 +88678,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"&gt; Oct 2, 2035\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:34:55.769Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:19.422Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 87,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89903,7 +88697,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://(https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler)). \nHow many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:00.954Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:25.482Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 127,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89922,7 +88716,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:06.285Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:31.217Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 175,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89941,7 +88735,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.\nOverall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.\nWhile deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.\nHow many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?\nResolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:17.936Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:41.607Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 48,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89971,7 +88765,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:23.292Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:46.796Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 66,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -89990,7 +88784,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Deep Learning Book, an excellent reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason, we call this approach to AI deep learning\nGoogle Books Ngram Viewer is an online search engine that charts the frequencies of any set of search strings using a yearly count of [n-grams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-gram) found in sources printed from 1500 onward.\nWhen will the fraction of English books that mention\"Deep Learning\" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?\nThis question resolves on the basis of Google's [Ngram viewer](https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=%22deep+learning%22&amp;year_start=1800&amp;year_end=2019&amp;corpus=26&amp;smoothing=0&amp;direct_url=t1%3B%2C%22%20deep%20learning%20%22%3B%2Cc0). The relevant search will be of English texts for case-insensitive terms. The \"Smoothing\" term will be set to 0. If that is not possible, we will use the default \"Smoothing\" settings.\nTo pinpoint a specific resolution date, this question resolves as the first of the year when the peak is reached. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:28.431Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:52.214Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 16,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90009,7 +88803,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:33.665Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:33:57.398Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90028,7 +88822,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (&lt;=60% accuracy for a binary task, &lt;=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:38.896Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:02.700Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90058,7 +88852,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:44.168Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:07.904Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 70,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90077,7 +88871,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:49.487Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:13.152Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90096,7 +88890,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be &gt;=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"&gt; Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:35:54.907Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:18.385Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 109,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90126,7 +88920,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:00.560Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:23.670Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 241,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90145,7 +88939,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:05.748Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:29.814Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 158,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90175,7 +88969,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:11.013Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:35.076Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 21,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90205,7 +88999,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:16.455Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:40.453Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 225,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90224,7 +89018,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:21.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:45.701Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90243,7 +89037,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:27.585Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:50.886Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90262,7 +89056,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:33.445Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:34:56.106Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90292,7 +89086,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:39.192Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:01.278Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90322,7 +89116,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:44.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:06.668Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 642,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90352,7 +89146,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:49.590Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:11.891Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 239,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90371,7 +89165,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.\nHis statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that \"It's always 'the end of the year.'\"\nThe company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the \"feather\" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.\nWhen will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:36:54.821Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:17.193Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 93,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90390,7 +89184,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:00.033Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:22.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90409,7 +89203,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:05.406Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:33.143Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 114,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90428,7 +89222,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for \"[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),\" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.\nIt has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly \"slotted in\" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:\nWhen will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? \nFor positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:11.145Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:38.433Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 334,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90458,7 +89252,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:16.578Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:43.715Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 223,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90488,7 +89282,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:22.163Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:48.907Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90518,7 +89312,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:27.494Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:54.113Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 165,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90537,26 +89331,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:32.803Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 59,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:43.815Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:35:59.328Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90575,7 +89350,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:49.026Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:04.542Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 109,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90605,7 +89380,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:37:59.573Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:15.306Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90635,7 +89410,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:04.844Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:20.652Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 615,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90654,7 +89429,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:09.998Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:25.806Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 119,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90673,7 +89448,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to \"phone home\" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).\nHow we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):\nThe sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.\nAlas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:\nThe Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.\nWhat will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):\nAbout [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants\nIn any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? \nQuestion will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:15.178Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:30.992Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90692,7 +89467,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to &gt; 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:20.365Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:37.497Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 154,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90711,9 +89486,9 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:26.159Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:42.703Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 114,
+      "numforecasts": 115,
       "resolution_data": {
         "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z",
         "resolution": null,
@@ -90741,7 +89516,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:31.844Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:47.867Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90771,7 +89546,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:37.141Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:53.068Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 451,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90801,7 +89576,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:42.368Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:36:58.262Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90820,7 +89595,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:47.586Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:03.506Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 74,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90850,7 +89625,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:52.749Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:08.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 114,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90869,7 +89644,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:38:57.982Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:13.950Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 42,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90899,7 +89674,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:03.253Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:19.162Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90918,7 +89693,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:08.469Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:25.617Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 230,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90937,7 +89712,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:13.652Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:30.774Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 246,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90956,7 +89731,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:18.941Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:36.168Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 174,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -90975,7 +89750,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which\naims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.\nAs of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.\nIf ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if:\n---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). \n---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. \n---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:25.067Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:41.423Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 76,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91005,7 +89780,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:30.543Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:46.770Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 166,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91035,7 +89810,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:35.782Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:52.114Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 259,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91054,7 +89829,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.\nThis question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:41.019Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:37:57.323Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 40,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91073,7 +89848,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:46.386Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:02.567Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 126,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91092,7 +89867,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:51.606Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:08.726Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 423,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91122,7 +89897,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:39:56.775Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:14.284Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 46,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91141,7 +89916,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:02.860Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:19.457Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 241,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91171,7 +89946,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:14.073Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:29.880Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 86,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91190,7 +89965,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:19.274Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:35.125Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91209,7 +89984,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:24.457Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:40.450Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91228,7 +90003,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:29.886Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:46.289Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 58,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91247,7 +90022,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:35.289Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:51.542Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 103,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91266,7 +90041,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:41.605Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:38:56.845Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 89,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91296,7 +90071,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:47.121Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:02.009Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91326,7 +90101,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:52.420Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:07.175Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 201,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91345,7 +90120,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as &gt;2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:40:57.578Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:12.401Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 77,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91375,7 +90150,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:02.902Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:17.608Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 106,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91405,7 +90180,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:08.213Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:22.796Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 377,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91424,7 +90199,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:13.571Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:28.578Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 139,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91454,7 +90229,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:19.038Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:33.828Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 275,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91473,7 +90248,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:24.510Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:39.050Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 86,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91492,7 +90267,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Disease:\nis a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.\nAccording to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. \nFuturists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),\nWould it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?\nThis question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) &lt; 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.\nOne such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:35.703Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:49.451Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 36,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91511,7 +90286,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:40.865Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:39:55.192Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 170,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91530,7 +90305,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf meta is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:46.037Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:00.410Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 14,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91543,25 +90318,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
-    "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:51.861Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 171,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": ""
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/",
@@ -91579,7 +90335,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:41:57.786Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:05.806Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91598,7 +90354,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:02.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:11.403Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 34,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91628,7 +90384,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:08.427Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:16.619Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 163,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91647,7 +90403,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.\nWhile beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. \nWith an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.\nWhat percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:13.779Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:21.963Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 32,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91666,7 +90422,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).\nOverfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).\nSeveral clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).\nAn IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean fish company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms \"clean fish\" or \"clean meat company\" producing \"fish\", where \"clean meat\" may be interchanged with \"cell-based\", \"in vitro\", \"cultivated\", or \"cultured\", and \"fish\" with any particular fish (e.g. \"clean tuna\"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:19.118Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:27.173Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 129,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91685,7 +90441,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nAlphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). \nIn case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).\nPrices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:24.572Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:32.414Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 227,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91715,7 +90471,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:29.813Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:37.654Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 76,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91745,7 +90501,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:35.109Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:44.280Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 96,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91764,7 +90520,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. \nViewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).\nAccording to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.\nComputational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is \"exa\", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.\nAt what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:40.359Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:49.706Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 147,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91783,7 +90539,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:46.203Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:40:54.966Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 562,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91802,7 +90558,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:51.381Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:00.318Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 27,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91821,7 +90577,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:42:56.621Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:05.507Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 24,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91840,7 +90596,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:01.846Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:11.503Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 224,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91870,7 +90626,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:07.142Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:16.942Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 234,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91883,43 +90639,13 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.15,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.85,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:13.095Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 253,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:18.421Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:22.084Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 90,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91938,7 +90664,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&amp;t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:23.724Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:27.325Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 98,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91968,7 +90694,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:34.212Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:38.290Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 116,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -91987,7 +90713,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.\nThese folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?\nIn order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:\n---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... \n---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. \nWhen will this first happen?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:39.563Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:43.771Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 38,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92006,7 +90732,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:45.943Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:49.005Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 107,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92025,7 +90751,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. \n[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school \"with a significant amount of loans\" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's \"trillion\" with a \"T\". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)\nIn November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):\nThe average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. \nMany independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.\nIn April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that \"In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.\"\nBillionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): \"I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.\"\nClearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble \"burst\"? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by \nA cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.\nA [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.\nWe'll ask: \nIn what year (if ever) will the 3-year rate, as defined above, reach 20% OR the 12 year rate reach 40%? \nIn each case the resolution date is defined by the middle of the year at the end of the interval in question. Resolution is by govt. or private numbers comparable in methodology and results to the above two reports.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:43:51.312Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:41:54.288Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 163,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92055,7 +90781,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:01.836Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:05.244Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 78,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92074,7 +90800,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):\nIn these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.\nIn this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?\nThe resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nRelated questions:\n---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) \n---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) \n---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) \n---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) \n---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:07.618Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:10.423Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 144,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92093,7 +90819,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:13.165Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:15.606Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 84,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92112,7 +90838,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:18.947Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:20.772Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 97,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92142,7 +90868,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:29.374Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:32.066Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 133,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92172,7 +90898,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:35.339Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:37.239Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 95,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92191,7 +90917,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:40.655Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:42.677Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 179,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92210,7 +90936,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&amp;C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" or \"animal drugs\" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:45.869Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:47.844Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92240,7 +90966,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:51.521Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:53.073Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 37,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92259,7 +90985,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:44:56.693Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:42:58.913Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 44,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92278,7 +91004,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm())\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:02.580Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:04.152Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 194,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92297,7 +91023,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:13.960Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:14.905Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 121,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92316,7 +91042,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:19.206Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:20.135Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 219,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92335,7 +91061,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:24.467Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:26.031Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 43,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92354,7 +91080,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The [Apple M1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_M1) processor is currently used in multiple Apple models, and they have indicated that they will continue developing additional generations.\nWhen will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"second generation\" means an architecture change, not simply an addition of cores.\nThe question will resolve when the announcement is made, likely during one of Apple's keynotes.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:30.119Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:31.288Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92384,7 +91110,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:36.142Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:36.562Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 407,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92414,7 +91140,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:41.429Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:41.815Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 155,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92444,7 +91170,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:46.677Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:46.962Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 19,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92463,7 +91189,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:52.045Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:52.771Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 52,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92482,7 +91208,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. \nA variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. \nDuring solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.\nWhen will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:45:57.286Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:43:57.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92501,7 +91227,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:03.893Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:03.239Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 62,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92520,7 +91246,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.\nWhen will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?\n---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:\n------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. \n------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. \n------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. \n------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. \n------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. \n------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. \n------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. \n------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. \n---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. \n---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. \n---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR headsets\" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. \n---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:09.692Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:08.461Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 101,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92550,7 +91276,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:15.633Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:14.340Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 137,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92569,7 +91295,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:20.798Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:19.551Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 82,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92588,7 +91314,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:31.834Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:30.053Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 64,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92607,7 +91333,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.\nEarlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.\nThis [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: \nIt is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. \nFor more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.\nWhen, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:37.179Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:35.270Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 60,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92637,7 +91363,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:42.365Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:41.245Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 426,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92656,7 +91382,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.\nThe [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.\nAs of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).\nThis question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?\nFor the purposes of this question:\n--- \nPublished studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.\n--- \nWhole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.\n--- \nAfrican American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as \"African\" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.\n--- \nThe question will resolve as &gt;2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:48.752Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:46.442Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 63,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92669,36 +91395,6 @@
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": ""
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?",
-    "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/",
-    "platform": "Metaculus",
-    "description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\nElon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? \nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.43,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:46:54.013Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": 206,
-      "resolution_data": {
-        "publish_time": "2019-07-21T22:00:00Z",
-        "resolution": null,
-        "close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z",
-        "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
-      },
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
     "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
@@ -92716,7 +91412,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:00.144Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:51.642Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 65,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92746,7 +91442,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:05.363Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:44:57.456Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 57,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92765,7 +91461,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:11.201Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:02.766Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 120,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92784,7 +91480,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as &gt;2036-12-17.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:16.425Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:07.938Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 112,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92814,7 +91510,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:22.531Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:13.604Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 110,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92833,7 +91529,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:28.439Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:18.785Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 73,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92852,7 +91548,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Background\n==========\n\nMetaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 million dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. \nHow much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:39.277Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:29.588Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 25,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92882,7 +91578,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:45.385Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:35.318Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 240,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92912,7 +91608,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:47:56.111Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:46.471Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 61,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92931,7 +91627,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)\nOn January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.\nIf Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?\nResolution:\n---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) \n---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. \n---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. \nThe report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).\nOther possible world:\n---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:01.329Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:51.926Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 59,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92950,7 +91646,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.\n[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).\nOn what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain &gt;=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?\n1-- \nThe reported &gt;=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.\n2-- \nIf the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as &gt; Sep 15, 2025.\n3-- \nThe \"mining pool\" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.\n4-- \nNote that in hash rate distribution charts, \"Unknown\" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from \"Unknown\" miners ever attained &gt;=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up &gt;=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.\n5-- \nOne possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with &gt;50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with &gt;50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:06.536Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:45:57.251Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 100,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92980,7 +91676,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:17.733Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:08.317Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 94,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -92999,7 +91695,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. \nTV Insider called it \"the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time\" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): \nThere’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. \nAs [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: \nThe Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. \nBart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.\nHow long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?\n(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:22.973Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:13.496Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 165,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93029,7 +91725,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:28.157Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:19.423Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 80,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93048,7 +91744,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:33.493Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:24.600Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 113,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93067,7 +91763,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:38.725Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:29.750Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 20,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93097,7 +91793,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:49.982Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:40.149Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 261,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93116,7 +91812,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\nWhat the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated \"layer flock size\" of \"all cage-free layers\" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:48:55.165Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:45.612Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 147,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93135,7 +91831,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).\nApple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).\nTo put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.\nWhen will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:00.403Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:51.134Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 133,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93154,7 +91850,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:05.631Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:46:56.283Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 140,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93173,7 +91869,7 @@
     "platform": "Metaculus",
     "description": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?\nResolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).\nBy average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.\n",
     "options": [],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:10.858Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:01.477Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": 188,
       "resolution_data": {
@@ -93203,7 +91899,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -93226,7 +91922,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -93249,7 +91945,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -93277,7 +91973,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -93291,36 +91987,36 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Option 0",
-        "probability": 0.11699629012633925,
+        "probability": 0.0728480195278485,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Option 1",
-        "probability": 0.09621199016704991,
+        "probability": 0.061755396082839156,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Option 2",
-        "probability": 0.2570655958876148,
+        "probability": 0.5824546485178075,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Option 3",
-        "probability": 0.09621199016704991,
+        "probability": 0.061755396082839156,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Option 4",
-        "probability": 0.3373021434848962,
+        "probability": 0.15943114370582656,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Option 5",
-        "probability": 0.09621199016704991,
+        "probability": 0.061755396082839156,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -93343,7 +92039,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
@@ -93366,38 +92062,12 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:12.474Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:02.937Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Boeing CST-100 Starliner Spacecraft successfully dock with the ISS before August 6?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-successfully-dock-with-the-iss-before-august-6",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on whether Boeing's CST-100 Starliner spacecraft will dock with the International Space Station before August 6, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Boeing CST-100 Starliner spacecraft is officially confirmed by NASA to have docked successfully with the International Space Station by 11:59:59 PM ET on August 5, 2021, and \"No\" otherwise. The resolution sources for this market include statements released on the official NASA website (nasa.gov), press conferences, and/or footage from official NASA livestreams. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.002980099077497771365046535969268309",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9970199009225022286349534640307317",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.984Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "91",
-      "liquidity": "127.45",
-      "tradevolume": "11559.32",
-      "stars": 2
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Declan Rice sign for Chelsea on or before August 31, 2021?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-declan-rice-sign-for-chelsea-on-or-before-august-31-2021",
@@ -93415,7 +92085,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": "37",
       "liquidity": "562.43",
@@ -93432,47 +92102,47 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.297024257632949876897258857542295",
+        "probability": "0.2602817656502203138827989131306609",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.702975742367050123102741142457705",
+        "probability": "0.7397182343497796861172010868693391",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "87",
+      "numforecasts": "91",
       "liquidity": "4633.21",
-      "tradevolume": "11365.29",
+      "tradevolume": "11672.53",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” sell more than 400K album units in its first week?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-billie-eilishs-happier-than-ever-sell-more-than-400k-album-units-in-its-first-week",
+    "title": "Will the FDA approve any COVID-19 vaccination for children under 12 by October 15? ",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fda-approve-any-covid-19-vaccination-for-children-under-12-by-october-15",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on the number of album unit “sales” that Billie Eilish’s album “Happier Than Ever” will have in the first week that it appears on Rollingstone’s weekly rankings of Top 200 Albums. The resolution source for this market will be Rolling Stone’s weekly ranking of popular albums, https://www.rollingstone.com/charts/albums/, which ranks albums each week, beginning on Friday and going through to the next Thursday. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the aforementioned album achieves more than 400,000 album units in the first week that it appears in Rollingstone’s weekly album rankings. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor example, if the album was released on a Monday, the Rollingstone week period used would be the period from the previous Friday to following Thursday. If album unit data is not available by August 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be checked on the Friday, the day after the Rollingstone week-long period, at 12:00 PM ET. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "description": "This is a market on whether any COVID-19 vaccination will receive regulatory approval, in the form of either FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization, for use by children under 12 years of age before October 15, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any COVID-19 vaccine for young children receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, October 15, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise. \n\nThis market will be resolved according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), the FDA recommendations for particular age groups (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/specific-groups.html) as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the MIC.",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.004178364140903192050005402454386311",
+        "probability": "0.2769186404583839112703508238909656",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9958216358590968079499945975456137",
+        "probability": "0.7230813595416160887296491761090344",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "108",
-      "liquidity": "6224.47",
-      "tradevolume": "15628.59",
-      "stars": 3
+      "numforecasts": "36",
+      "liquidity": "3999.00",
+      "tradevolume": "4144.20",
+      "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -93484,20 +92154,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9966308297126843433458000884317601",
+        "probability": "0.9992886216864487659010742592819755",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.003369170287315656654199911568239902",
+        "probability": "0.0007113783135512340989257407180245421",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "382",
+      "numforecasts": "404",
       "liquidity": "299.73",
-      "tradevolume": "25333.93",
+      "tradevolume": "25375.23",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93510,46 +92180,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.6075609259957272170045623660445714",
+        "probability": "0.6024672033216355482693814573057003",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.3924390740042727829954376339554286",
+        "probability": "0.3975327966783644517306185426942997",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "539",
-      "liquidity": "13762.15",
-      "tradevolume": "88846.69",
-      "stars": 4
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "Will Allyson Felix win a medal in the Women’s 400M?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-allyson-felix-win-a-medal-in-the-womens-400m",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Allyson Felix wins a gold, silver, or bronze medal in the Women’s 400M dash in the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve after the Women's 400M dash final, currently scheduled for Friday, August 6, 2021, 8:35 AM ET, https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/athletics/event-schedule-women-s-400m.htm, or earlier if this athlete is eliminated earlier. If no final is held before August 8, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.1762981172955867773402010916879868",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.8237018827044132226597989083120132",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "65",
-      "liquidity": "1803.35",
-      "tradevolume": "4534.62",
+      "numforecasts": "828",
+      "liquidity": "14155.51",
+      "tradevolume": "155406.11",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93562,50 +92206,24 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.8654390897294184026114265283970836",
+        "probability": "0.998677350049729384392483118185351",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.1345609102705815973885734716029164",
+        "probability": "0.001322649950270615607516881814649017",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.823Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "516",
-      "liquidity": "3697.63",
-      "tradevolume": "40342.34",
-      "stars": 4
+      "numforecasts": "907",
+      "liquidity": "46.32",
+      "tradevolume": "50298.85",
+      "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many album unit sales will Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” generate in its first week?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-album-unit-sales-will-billie-eilishs-happier-than-ever-generate-in-its-first-week",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a scalar market on the number of album unit “sales” that Billie Eilish’s album “Happier Than Ever” will have in the first week that it appears on Rollingstone’s weekly rankings of Top 200 Albums. The upper bound for this market is 600,000 album units, and the lower bound is 200,000 album units.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Rolling Stone’s weekly ranking of popular albums, https://www.rollingstone.com/charts/albums/, which ranks albums each week, beginning on Friday and going through to the next Thursday. For example, if the album was released on a Monday, the Rollingstone week period used would be the period from the previous Friday to following Thursday. The resolution source will be checked on the Friday, the day after the Rollingstone week-long period, at 12:00 PM ET. If album unit data is not available by August 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50 for Long and Short. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with residential sales. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Long",
-        "probability": "0.1008168325719169264947633295170835",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Short",
-        "probability": "0.8991831674280830735052366704829165",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "49",
-      "liquidity": "4178.15",
-      "tradevolume": "7249.58",
-      "stars": 4
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Donald Trump’s Facebook or Twitter accounts post by September 1?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-post-appear-on-donald-trumps-official-facebook-or-twitter-accounts-by-september-1",
@@ -93614,46 +92232,46 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.0249657446698746387910238001070775",
+        "probability": "0.01974556420297067449253248816272257",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9750342553301253612089761998929225",
+        "probability": "0.9802544357970293255074675118372774",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "86",
+      "numforecasts": "91",
       "liquidity": "259.37",
-      "tradevolume": "1764.48",
+      "tradevolume": "1778.17",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will EIP-1559 be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet before August 5, 2021?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-on-the-ethereum-mainnet-before-august-5-2021",
+    "title": "Will Kevin Paffrath be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kevin-paffrath-be-governor-of-california-on-december-31-2021",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on whether EIP-1559 will be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, August 5 2021, 12:00:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if EIP-1559 is implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
+    "description": "This is a market on whether Kevin Paffrath will be the Governor of California on December 31, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Kevin Paffrath is the Governor of the state of California as substantiated by official government sources (e.g. https://www.gov.ca.gov/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.0014487756283879244652799567309046",
+        "probability": "0.08356386256495042138810124668917765",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9985512243716120755347200432690954",
+        "probability": "0.9164361374350495786118987533108224",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "3664",
-      "liquidity": "30837.93",
-      "tradevolume": "1727887.80",
+      "numforecasts": "14",
+      "liquidity": "4559.53",
+      "tradevolume": "6722.31",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93666,20 +92284,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.766287244011052358744477597570255",
+        "probability": "0.7652206077428772577086080197714581",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.233712755988947641255522402429745",
+        "probability": "0.2347793922571227422913919802285419",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "279",
-      "liquidity": "3909.85",
-      "tradevolume": "17810.10",
+      "numforecasts": "298",
+      "liquidity": "16956.12",
+      "tradevolume": "19198.92",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93692,20 +92310,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.2622018802928949954582493458765825",
+        "probability": "0.2615552375635323883174192527770413",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.7377981197071050045417506541234175",
+        "probability": "0.7384447624364676116825807472229587",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "50",
+      "numforecasts": "52",
       "liquidity": "12519.54",
-      "tradevolume": "12075.76",
+      "tradevolume": "12130.76",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93718,20 +92336,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.02393143782211363215614105766533821",
+        "probability": "0.0195595004400914159990561266786847",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9760685621778863678438589423346618",
+        "probability": "0.9804404995599085840009438733213153",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "4295",
-      "liquidity": "47377.31",
-      "tradevolume": "623687.89",
+      "numforecasts": "4352",
+      "liquidity": "26238.57",
+      "tradevolume": "626545.40",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93740,24 +92358,24 @@
     "title": "Will Kanye West’s DONDA sell more than 250K album units in its first week?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-wests-donda-sell-more-than-250k-units-in-its-first-week",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on the number of album unit “sales” that Kanye West’s “Donda” will have in the first week that it appears on Rollingstone’s weekly rankings of Top 200 Albums. The resolution source for this market will be Rolling Stone’s weekly ranking of popular albums, https://www.rollingstone.com/charts/albums/, which ranks albums each week, beginning on Friday and going through to the next Thursday. This market will resolve to “Yes” if “Donda” achieves more than 250,000 album in the first week that it appears in Rollingstone’s weekly album rankings. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For example, if the album was released on a Monday, the Rollingstone week period used would be the period from the previous Friday to following Thursday. If the album is not released by August 13, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, or the first week album units are not available by August 23, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be checked on the Friday, the day after the Rollingstone week-long period, at 12:00 PM ET. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "description": "This is a market on the number of album unit “sales” that Kanye West’s “Donda” will have in the first week that it appears on Rollingstone’s weekly rankings of Top 200 Albums. The resolution source for this market will be Rolling Stone’s weekly ranking of popular albums, https://www.rollingstone.com/charts/albums/, which ranks albums each week, beginning on Friday and going through to the next Thursday. This market will resolve to “Yes” if “Donda” achieves more than 250,000 album unit sales in the first week that it appears in Rollingstone’s weekly album rankings. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For example, if the album was released on a Monday, the Rollingstone week period used would be the period from the previous Friday to following Thursday. If the album is not released by August 13, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, or the first week album units are not available by August 23, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be checked on the Friday, the day after the Rollingstone week-long period, at 12:00 PM ET. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.6518075914537292062044330506361534",
+        "probability": "0.3268348298315808323105219987590314",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.3481924085462707937955669493638466",
+        "probability": "0.6731651701684191676894780012409686",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "294",
-      "liquidity": "9049.47",
-      "tradevolume": "44189.86",
+      "numforecasts": "477",
+      "liquidity": "9005.03",
+      "tradevolume": "79079.68",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93770,20 +92388,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.2531372196782061878025338658323304",
+        "probability": "0.2124892308982572098305385894935206",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.7468627803217938121974661341676696",
+        "probability": "0.7875107691017427901694614105064794",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "129",
+      "numforecasts": "137",
       "liquidity": "2705.04",
-      "tradevolume": "6600.86",
+      "tradevolume": "7164.47",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93796,24 +92414,50 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.02111844908472050327317512290918654",
+        "probability": "0.000004300559265488204678148368998069049",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9788815509152794967268248770908135",
+        "probability": "0.9999956994407345117953218516310019",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "62",
-      "liquidity": "32.05",
-      "tradevolume": "481.76",
+      "numforecasts": "74",
+      "liquidity": "0.04",
+      "tradevolume": "501.86",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Who will get more Gold Medals at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics: USA or China?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-get-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020-tokyo-olympics-usa-or-china",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “USA” if the United States of America gets more gold medals than China at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, or “China” if China gets more gold medals than the United States of America at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. If the USA and China get the same amount of gold medals, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "USA",
+        "probability": "0.351221158194943457374642134130049",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "China",
+        "probability": "0.648778841805056542625357865869951",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "163",
+      "liquidity": "2172.53",
+      "tradevolume": "13528.00",
+      "stars": 4
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, China"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will the US have fewer than 1000 COVID-19 cases on any day on or before September 1?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-1000-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-september-1",
@@ -93822,20 +92466,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.07148477458272239967897660067790618",
+        "probability": "0.06472434104105869697692695157872203",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9285152254172776003210233993220938",
+        "probability": "0.935275658958941303023073048421278",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "1322",
-      "liquidity": "12207.72",
-      "tradevolume": "105064.81",
+      "numforecasts": "1330",
+      "liquidity": "12561.72",
+      "tradevolume": "105333.02",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93848,50 +92492,24 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.2800803211419357159533604954084538",
+        "probability": "0.3347486150527066122126152505364032",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.7199196788580642840466395045915462",
+        "probability": "0.6652513849472933877873847494635968",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "300",
-      "liquidity": "9806.35",
-      "tradevolume": "56851.52",
+      "numforecasts": "335",
+      "liquidity": "9803.22",
+      "tradevolume": "59856.48",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "What will the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index be for July 2021?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-be-for-july-2021",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a scalar market on Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for July 2021. The lower bound for this market is 150 and the upper bound is 220. This market will resolve on Manheim Consulting's Used Vehicle Value Index for the month of July, scheduled to be released on August 6, 2021 at https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.htm. The resolution source will be checked at 5:00 PM ET on August 6, 2021. If the source is unavailable at that time, or does not have a Used Vehicle Index Value for July at that time, it will be checked the following day at 5:00 PM ET, and once daily at that time until the data is available. If at 5:00 PM ET on August 13, 2021 the data is still unavailable, this market will resolve to 185, which is between the upper and lower bounds of the market. \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with Used Vehicle Index Values. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).   ",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Long",
-        "probability": "0.6055292695112523007726399379407002",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Short",
-        "probability": "0.3944707304887476992273600620592998",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "23",
-      "liquidity": "2098.43",
-      "tradevolume": "6475.70",
-      "stars": 4
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Donald Trump be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-the-2024-republican-presidential-nominee",
@@ -93900,20 +92518,46 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.3675757188856035210791474594313661",
+        "probability": "0.3648139322803746246488110452439072",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.6324242811143964789208525405686339",
+        "probability": "0.6351860677196253753511889547560928",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.824Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "95",
-      "liquidity": "93723.26",
-      "tradevolume": "43127.59",
+      "numforecasts": "114",
+      "liquidity": "65340.37",
+      "tradevolume": "48925.60",
+      "stars": 4
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Kanye West’s album DONDA be released by midnight ET, August 9, 2021?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-wests-album-donda-be-released-by-midnight-et-august-9-2021",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kanye West’s album DONDA is available for download or streaming (not including live events) on Apple Music on or before August 9, 2021, 12:00:59 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be Kanye West’s official Apple Music page, https://music.apple.com/us/artist/kanye-west/2715720. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": "0.1792749465024971905381759793345226",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": "0.8207250534975028094618240206654774",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "75",
+      "liquidity": "3307.09",
+      "tradevolume": "7672.83",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93926,20 +92570,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.003402117694074516999381369032716587",
+        "probability": "0.001786394565249999194858101669222298",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9965978823059254830006186309672834",
+        "probability": "0.9982136054347500008051418983307777",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "468",
-      "liquidity": "2472.79",
-      "tradevolume": "41718.96",
+      "numforecasts": "477",
+      "liquidity": "2675.96",
+      "tradevolume": "41768.94",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93952,20 +92596,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.04321998600378656089566138017996264",
+        "probability": "0.0433071543532225400573566339628795",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9567800139962134391043386198200374",
+        "probability": "0.9566928456467774599426433660371205",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "231",
-      "liquidity": "1363.23",
-      "tradevolume": "14170.91",
+      "numforecasts": "232",
+      "liquidity": "1939.65",
+      "tradevolume": "14171.44",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -93978,46 +92622,72 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.03397753221789085496349730376238995",
+        "probability": "0.0255434741491245390539325828923087",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9660224677821091450365026962376101",
+        "probability": "0.9744565258508754609460674171076913",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "400",
-      "liquidity": "8145.93",
-      "tradevolume": "66135.59",
+      "numforecasts": "417",
+      "liquidity": "2548.56",
+      "tradevolume": "66479.39",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Kawhi Leonard Sign with the Clippers for the NBA 2021-22 season on or before October 1? ",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kawhi-leonard-sign-with-the-clippers-for-the-nba-2021-22-season-on-or-before-october-1",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This is a market on whether Kawhi Leonard will sign with the Los Angeles Clippers for the NBA 2021-22 season on or before October 1, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kawhi Leonard signs for the Clippers for the NBA 2021-22 season during the free agency period on or before October 1, 2021. Note that if the Clippers do a sign-and-trade deal, this will also count. This market will resolve to “No” if Kawhi Leonard does not sign with the Clippers for the NBA 2021-22 season on or before October 1. This market will also resolve to \"No\" if Kawhi Leonard signs for a team other than the Clippers on or before October 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": "0.9774962301074736133337102496916585",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": "0.02250376989252638666628975030834153",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "40",
+      "liquidity": "499.00",
+      "tradevolume": "10677.89",
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will Cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-cardano-support-smart-contracts-on-mainnet-by-october-1st-2021",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on if Cardano Mainnet will be live and supporting smart contract deployment and functionality by October 1st, 2021, 12 PM ET. In Cardano’s official roadmap, this is referred to as Goguen. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is possible to create and execute functional smart contracts on the Cardano network on a “Mainnet” by the resolution date. This includes token deployment, and does not include staking functionality or consensus mechanisms. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nPer the Cardano roadmap:\n“With the integration of smart contracts, the Goguen era represents a big step forwards in capability for the Cardano network. Where the Shelley era decentralizes the core of the system, Goguen adds the ability to build decentralized applications (DApps) on Cardano’s solid foundation of peer-reviewed research and high-assurance development.”\n\n“This will allow the creation of fungible and non-fungible tokens, supporting the creation of new cryptocurrencies on Cardano as well as the tokenization of many types of digital and physical assets. Another benefit will be easier integration of smart contracts and DApps involving multiple cryptocurrencies.”\n",
+    "description": "Clarification: A redundant reference to smart contract \"deployment\" has been removed to clarify the resolution criteria of this market, which will resolve \"Yes\" if smart contract functionality is live by the resolution date.\n\nThis is a market on if Cardano Mainnet will be live and supporting smart contract functionality by October 1st, 2021, 12 PM ET. In Cardano’s official roadmap, this is referred to as Goguen. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is possible to create and execute functional smart contracts on the Cardano network on a “Mainnet” by the resolution date. This does not include staking functionality or consensus mechanisms. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nPer the Cardano roadmap:\n“With the integration of smart contracts, the Goguen era represents a big step forwards in capability for the Cardano network. Where the Shelley era decentralizes the core of the system, Goguen adds the ability to build decentralized applications (DApps) on Cardano’s solid foundation of peer-reviewed research and high-assurance development.”\n\n“This will allow the creation of fungible and non-fungible tokens, supporting the creation of new cryptocurrencies on Cardano as well as the tokenization of many types of digital and physical assets. Another benefit will be easier integration of smart contracts and DApps involving multiple cryptocurrencies.”\n\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.5920166401780142957210493257861348",
+        "probability": "0.7757048982218473700008044812269701",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.4079833598219857042789506742138652",
+        "probability": "0.2242951017781526299991955187730299",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "831",
-      "liquidity": "33956.51",
-      "tradevolume": "415451.25",
+      "numforecasts": "1024",
+      "liquidity": "20535.52",
+      "tradevolume": "515837.78",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94030,20 +92700,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.6625242945300134205763203080974794",
+        "probability": "0.6698094714250909363085135625664467",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.3374757054699865794236796919025206",
+        "probability": "0.3301905285749090636914864374335533",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "207",
+      "numforecasts": "227",
       "liquidity": "3184.94",
-      "tradevolume": "10876.59",
+      "tradevolume": "12014.97",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94056,20 +92726,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.005016390777369699263684030836203958",
+        "probability": "0.00147121251906820287950648682792277",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.994983609222630300736315969163796",
+        "probability": "0.9985287874809317971204935131720772",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "224",
-      "liquidity": "511.88",
-      "tradevolume": "9304.98",
+      "numforecasts": "242",
+      "liquidity": "510.08",
+      "tradevolume": "9601.70",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94082,46 +92752,46 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.1877254273925822683304850829246638",
+        "probability": "0.2061057495019427095645711434026286",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.8122745726074177316695149170753362",
+        "probability": "0.7938942504980572904354288565973714",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "504",
-      "liquidity": "6213.28",
-      "tradevolume": "63464.27",
+      "numforecasts": "549",
+      "liquidity": "5387.68",
+      "tradevolume": "67176.32",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index be above 200 for July 2021?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-be-above-200-for-july-2021",
+    "title": "Will Messi sign a contract to stay with FC Barcelona by September 1?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-messi-sign-a-contract-to-stay-with-fc-barcelona-by-september-1",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on whether the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index will be above 200 for July 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is above 200 for July 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html scheduled to release July’s index value on August 6, 2021. The resolution source will be checked at 5:00 PM ET on August 6. If the source is unavailable at that time, or does not have the the value of the index for July 2021, it will be checked the following day at 5:00 PM ET, and once daily at that time until the data is available. If at 5:00 PM ET on September 1, 2021 the data is still unavailable, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on or before September 1, 2021, 12:00 PM, there is an official announcement that Lionel Messi has signed a contract to continue playing for FC Barcelona. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.006241625583633601248854378980134109",
+        "probability": "0.03470251574469917507763314042682657",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9937583744163663987511456210198659",
+        "probability": "0.9652974842553008249223668595731734",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "51",
-      "liquidity": "90.56",
-      "tradevolume": "2327.68",
+      "numforecasts": "24",
+      "liquidity": "131.11",
+      "tradevolume": "2175.69",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94134,50 +92804,24 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.07445180191401031538240366466957827",
+        "probability": "0.07306043335485300165284742917209539",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9255481980859896846175963353304217",
+        "probability": "0.9269395666451469983471525708279046",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "727",
+      "numforecasts": "770",
       "liquidity": "2009.92",
-      "tradevolume": "20607.20",
+      "tradevolume": "28235.86",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 400K for the week ending on July 31?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-400k-for-the-week-ending-on-july-31",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 400,000 for the week ending on Saturday, July 31, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 400,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on July 31, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 400,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on July 31, 2021.  The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, July 31, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, August 5, 2021, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If data is not available for the aforementioned dates by Wednesday, August 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.001520192510551992002682671315601653",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9984798074894480079973173286843983",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "71",
-      "liquidity": "500.00",
-      "tradevolume": "5330.23",
-      "stars": 2
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Harry Kane sign for Manchester City on or before August 31, 2021?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-sign-for-manchester-city-on-or-before-august-31-2021",
@@ -94186,20 +92830,72 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.5430818008397823735980168028203208",
+        "probability": "0.4471638648090947620080407799134555",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.4569181991602176264019831971796792",
+        "probability": "0.5528361351909052379919592200865445",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "96",
+      "numforecasts": "123",
       "liquidity": "1433.13",
-      "tradevolume": "4981.22",
+      "tradevolume": "8520.53",
+      "stars": 4
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Tim Tebow score a touchdown in the upcoming NFL season?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tim-tebow-score-a-touchdown-in-the-upcoming-nfl-season",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This is a market on whether Tim Tebow will score a touchdown in the 2021-22 NFL season. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tim Tebow scores a touchdown during the 2021-22 NFL season (inclusive of the playoffs and the Super Bowl), and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve according to Tim Tebow’s official statistics for the 2021-22 season (https://www.nfl.com/players/tim-tebow/stats/career) or at the definite conclusion of his availability to play for an NFL team. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": "0.2158836339190917645351329776625708",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": "0.7841163660809082354648670223374292",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "11",
+      "liquidity": "3000.20",
+      "tradevolume": "748.87",
+      "stars": 4
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 385K for the week ending on August 7?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-385k-for-the-week-ending-on-august-7",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 385,000 for the week ending on Saturday, August 7, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 385,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on August 7, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 385,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on August 7, 2021.  The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, August 7, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, August 12, 2021, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If data is not available for the aforementioned dates by Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": "0.4681260447760065891835233223118909",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": "0.5318739552239934108164766776881091",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "6",
+      "liquidity": "1165.18",
+      "tradevolume": "169.00",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94212,21 +92908,21 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.02492377204220697041520831310789549",
+        "probability": "0.01007205337331871110627244033228453",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9750762279577930295847916868921045",
+        "probability": "0.9899279466266812888937275596677155",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "213",
-      "liquidity": "15809.31",
-      "tradevolume": "40497.22",
-      "stars": 3
+      "numforecasts": "251",
+      "liquidity": "12.37",
+      "tradevolume": "41072.33",
+      "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -94238,47 +92934,73 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Long",
-        "probability": "0.5468333318371791485465720305522709",
+        "probability": "0.6573882376940171300845806107451018",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Short",
-        "probability": "0.4531666681628208514534279694477291",
+        "probability": "0.3426117623059828699154193892548982",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "153",
+      "numforecasts": "240",
       "liquidity": "5596.87",
-      "tradevolume": "12708.04",
+      "tradevolume": "16528.49",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will the USA beat Australia by 10 or more points in the Men's Basketball Tokyo 2020 Olympic Semifinals match?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-usa-beat-australia-by-10-or-more-points-in-the-mens-basketball-tokyo-2020-olympic-semifinals-match",
+    "title": "Will Brazil or Spain win gold in Men’s Soccer at the 2020 Olympics? ",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-brazil-or-spain-win-the-mens-soccer-gold-medal-at-the-2020-tokyo-olympics",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USA beats Australia by 10 or more points in the Men's Basketball Tokyo 2020 Olympic Semifinals match, scheduled to take place on August 5, 2021, 12:15 AM ET,  and “No” otherwise. If the match is postponed to a date on or before August 12, 2021, 12:15 AM ET, the same market conditions will apply. If the match is postponed to a date after August 12, 2021, 12:15 AM ET, or cancelled altogether, the market will resolve 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “Brazil” if Brazil wins the Men’s Soccer gold medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, or “Spain” if Spain wins the Men’s Soccer gold medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. This market will resolve on August 7, 2021, when the gold medal match is scheduled to be played. If the gold medal match is postponed to September 7, 2021, 11:59 PM ET or earlier, the same rules will apply. If the gold medal match is postponed to September 8, 2021, 12:00 AM ET or later, or cancelled altogether, this market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Brazil",
+        "probability": "0.998977298247567078781665527916484",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Spain",
+        "probability": "0.001022701752432921218334472083515957",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "73",
+      "liquidity": "1000.00",
+      "tradevolume": "5193.52",
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Brazil, Spain"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Lionel Messi sign for Paris-Saint Germain on or before September 1?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-lionel-messi-sign-for-paris-saint-germain-on-or-before-september-1",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This is a market on whether Lionel Messi will sign for Paris-Saint Germain on or before September 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lionel Messi signs for Paris-Saint Germain in the transfer window on or before September 1, or will resolve to “No” if Lionel Messi does not sign with Paris-Saint Germain on or before September 1. This market will also resolve to \"No\" if Lionel Messi signs a contract extension with Barcelona, or signs for another club other than Paris-Saint Germain on or before September 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9984587990842209781492061273886818",
+        "probability": "0.8874402992948681079982451904992845",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.001541200915779021850793872611318161",
+        "probability": "0.1125597007051318920017548095007155",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "52",
-      "liquidity": "167.32",
-      "tradevolume": "1687.27",
-      "stars": 2
+      "numforecasts": "53",
+      "liquidity": "540.42",
+      "tradevolume": "3193.25",
+      "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -94290,20 +93012,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.1679551884802548120125813345342728",
+        "probability": "0.1511011706918314279097742493164015",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.8320448115197451879874186654657272",
+        "probability": "0.8488988293081685720902257506835985",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "93",
-      "liquidity": "3482.75",
-      "tradevolume": "11403.14",
+      "numforecasts": "132",
+      "liquidity": "2716.17",
+      "tradevolume": "16387.85",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94316,20 +93038,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9662913846022879263060032490883994",
+        "probability": "0.9848696628932609581288098539035262",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.0337086153977120736939967509116006",
+        "probability": "0.01513033710673904187119014609647385",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "188",
+      "numforecasts": "196",
       "liquidity": "511.37",
-      "tradevolume": "11019.75",
+      "tradevolume": "11052.20",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94342,20 +93064,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.5652805293219038273161199196685661",
+        "probability": "0.5248642006217658154297708289316563",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.4347194706780961726838800803314339",
+        "probability": "0.4751357993782341845702291710683437",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "193",
+      "numforecasts": "197",
       "liquidity": "3245.32",
-      "tradevolume": "8366.04",
+      "tradevolume": "8722.03",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94368,47 +93090,47 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.2183463873392193688790208630679351",
+        "probability": "0.2843818121063349747679675713799996",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.7816536126607806311209791369320649",
+        "probability": "0.7156181878936650252320324286200004",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "164",
-      "liquidity": "5067.48",
-      "tradevolume": "19351.98",
+      "numforecasts": "255",
+      "liquidity": "4034.97",
+      "tradevolume": "27455.57",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will EIP-1559 be implemented live on Ethereum mainnet by 10 AM ET on August 5, 2021?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-on-the-ethereum-mainnet-by-10am-aug5",
+    "title": "Will “The Suicide Squad” gross more than $37.5M domestically on opening weekend?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-suicide-squad-gross-more-than-375m-domestically-on-opening-weekend",
     "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on whether EIP-1559 will be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, August 5, 2021, 10:00:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if EIP-1559 is implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarification: This market refers to the date on which the block number falls and EIP-1559 is actually live on mainnet. ",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if “The Suicide Squad” grosses more than $37,500,000 on opening weekend, defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl84510209/, under the “Domestic Weekend” tab. To resolve the market, the source will be checked on August 10, 2021, 3 PM ET. If the box office sales data is based on a studio estimate rather than actual data, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until the actual data is available. If the actual data is not available on the resolution source by August 17, 2021, 3 PM ET, then another credible source will chosen by the MIC and checked. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9988413851083744638090017460337581",
+        "probability": "0.02506989967733623162197398490013293",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.001158614891625536190998253966241873",
+        "probability": "0.9749301003226637683780260150998671",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "1100",
-      "liquidity": "5200.00",
-      "tradevolume": "210067.08",
-      "stars": 3
+      "numforecasts": "141",
+      "liquidity": "450.00",
+      "tradevolume": "13122.48",
+      "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -94420,20 +93142,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.3071302801442866853324043138435021",
+        "probability": "0.2568779977475514768608923381062718",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.6928697198557133146675956861564979",
+        "probability": "0.7431220022524485231391076618937282",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "74",
+      "numforecasts": "81",
       "liquidity": "4163.32",
-      "tradevolume": "16325.83",
+      "tradevolume": "16696.01",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94446,21 +93168,47 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.7973985210190769912070342532300882",
+        "probability": "0.9995447534334346083074763363104084",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.2026014789809230087929657467699118",
+        "probability": "0.000455246566565391692523663689591587",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "313",
-      "liquidity": "3642.00",
-      "tradevolume": "26657.23",
-      "stars": 4
+      "numforecasts": "482",
+      "liquidity": "450.48",
+      "tradevolume": "34903.62",
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Eliud Kipchoge win gold in the Men's Marathon at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics?",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eliud-kipchoge-win-gold-in-the-mens-marathon-at-the-2020-tokyo-olympics",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eliud Kipchoge wins the gold medal at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve on August 7, 2021, when the marathon event is scheduled to be played. If the marathon event is postponed to September 7, 2021 11:59 PM ET or earlier, the same rules will apply. If the marathon event is postponed to September 8, 2021, 12:00 AM ET or later, or cancelled altogether, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Yes",
+        "probability": "0.5732865377373263161447441024067029",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "No",
+        "probability": "0.4267134622626736838552558975932971",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "45",
+      "liquidity": "446.58",
+      "tradevolume": "1009.21",
+      "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -94472,20 +93220,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.004390206510801889123163646010005464",
+        "probability": "0.004431099286950236514295403155907202",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9956097934891981108768363539899945",
+        "probability": "0.9955689007130497634857045968440928",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "352",
-      "liquidity": "577.52",
-      "tradevolume": "12171.09",
+      "numforecasts": "356",
+      "liquidity": "519.78",
+      "tradevolume": "12173.47",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94498,20 +93246,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.1256535997530312972146023852122317",
+        "probability": "0.1460212435136180465082229037592472",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.8743464002469687027853976147877683",
+        "probability": "0.8539787564863819534917770962407528",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.985Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "79",
+      "numforecasts": "94",
       "liquidity": "2000.00",
-      "tradevolume": "6310.31",
+      "tradevolume": "7651.88",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94524,20 +93272,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.01522584364551833492418078459966796",
+        "probability": "0.004661772018563280318733009714679202",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.984774156354481665075819215400332",
+        "probability": "0.9953382279814367196812669902853208",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "359",
-      "liquidity": "1036.09",
-      "tradevolume": "47182.49",
+      "numforecasts": "371",
+      "liquidity": "1033.19",
+      "tradevolume": "47433.40",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94550,20 +93298,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9651331646549784793006598716303713",
+        "probability": "0.9663815245913133454569033963715282",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.0348668353450215206993401283696287",
+        "probability": "0.03361847540868665454309660362847183",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.833Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "2033",
-      "liquidity": "12848.37",
-      "tradevolume": "524168.40",
+      "numforecasts": "2120",
+      "liquidity": "11100.58",
+      "tradevolume": "533635.22",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94576,46 +93324,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.6853942557156577922802982337202344",
+        "probability": "0.0005097105150859638708215746522818019",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.3146057442843422077197017662797656",
+        "probability": "0.9994902894849140361291784253477182",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "171",
-      "liquidity": "14295.47",
-      "tradevolume": "17937.43",
-      "stars": 4
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
-  {
-    "title": "(In-Game Trading) Will the USA beat Australia by 10 or more points in the Men's Basketball Tokyo 2020 Olympic Semifinals match?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/in-game-trading-will-the-usa-beat-australia-by-10-or-more-points-in-the-mens-basketball-tokyo-2020-olympic-semifinals-match",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USA beats Australia by 10 or more points in the Men's Basketball Tokyo 2020 Olympic Semifinals match, scheduled to take place on August 5, 2021, 12:15 AM ET,  and “No” otherwise. If the match is postponed to a date on or before August 12, 2021, 12:15 AM ET, the same market conditions will apply. If the match is postponed to a date after August 12, 2021, 12:15 AM ET, or cancelled altogether, the market will resolve 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9990573928604764218210672750114964",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.0009426071395235781789327249885036214",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "57",
-      "liquidity": "350.39",
-      "tradevolume": "3342.37",
+      "numforecasts": "1085",
+      "liquidity": "515.67",
+      "tradevolume": "106647.83",
       "stars": 2
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94637,7 +93359,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": "48",
       "liquidity": "100.23",
@@ -94654,20 +93376,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.368260954528058723231964854762847",
+        "probability": "0.3269212885890762886806548328263661",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.631739045471941276768035145237153",
+        "probability": "0.6730787114109237113193451671736339",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "203",
-      "liquidity": "2209.73",
-      "tradevolume": "14619.87",
+      "numforecasts": "234",
+      "liquidity": "32713.61",
+      "tradevolume": "23272.15",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94680,20 +93402,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9627844238535875125780747866603019",
+        "probability": "0.9495817881268398526362355963680509",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.03721557614641248742192521333969812",
+        "probability": "0.05041821187316014736376440363194912",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "71",
-      "liquidity": "1914.45",
-      "tradevolume": "2869.69",
+      "numforecasts": "91",
+      "liquidity": "1540.95",
+      "tradevolume": "4226.30",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94706,24 +93428,50 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Long",
-        "probability": "0.7766694569031847714110848287780478",
+        "probability": "0.7570724104217438903958499694903326",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Short",
-        "probability": "0.2233305430968152285889151712219522",
+        "probability": "0.2429275895782561096041500305096674",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "45",
+      "numforecasts": "56",
       "liquidity": "4620.05",
-      "tradevolume": "10450.41",
+      "tradevolume": "11031.01",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Will Japan or the USA win gold in Baseball at the 2020 Olympics? ",
+    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-japan-or-the-usa-win-the-baseball-gold-medal-at-the-2020-olympics",
+    "platform": "PolyMarket",
+    "description": "This market will resolve to “Japan” if Japan wins the Baseball gold medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, or “USA” if the United States of America wins the Baseball gold medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. This market will resolve on August 7, 2021, when the gold medal match is scheduled to be played. If the gold medal match is postponed to September 7, 2021, 11:59 PM ET or earlier, the same rules will apply. If the gold medal match is postponed to September 8, 2021, 12:00 AM ET or later, or cancelled altogether, this market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Japan",
+        "probability": "0.9989435521004845634109454468636855",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "USA",
+        "probability": "0.001056447899515436589054553136314462",
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "numforecasts": "96",
+      "liquidity": "500.00",
+      "tradevolume": "1323.96",
+      "stars": 2
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Japan, USA"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Will Kaz Kamwi be in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kaz-kamwi-win-top-female-on-love-island-uk-season-7",
@@ -94732,50 +93480,24 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.2215707722478878643242070240062891",
+        "probability": "0.1015969208689046896792599381095763",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.7784292277521121356757929759937109",
+        "probability": "0.8984030791310953103207400618904237",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "38",
+      "numforecasts": "43",
       "liquidity": "1009.05",
-      "tradevolume": "1388.11",
+      "tradevolume": "1587.88",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will EIP-1559 be implemented live on Ethereum mainnet by 8:45 AM ET on August 5, 2021?",
-    "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-live-on-ethereum-mainnet-by-845-am-et-on-august-5-2021",
-    "platform": "PolyMarket",
-    "description": "This is a market on whether EIP-1559 will be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, August 5, 2021, 8:45:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if EIP-1559 is implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. This market refers to the date on which the block number falls and EIP-1559 is actually live on mainnet. \nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.9991341613168521130032201083498861",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.000865838683147886996779891650113949",
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "116",
-      "liquidity": "1000.36",
-      "tradevolume": "6737.66",
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 43% or higher on August 15?",
     "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-43-or-higher-on-august-15",
@@ -94784,21 +93506,21 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.8108801092377825399996751772564017",
+        "probability": "0.837039987588880391458707650908",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.1891198907622174600003248227435983",
+        "probability": "0.162960012411119608541292349092",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "80",
-      "liquidity": "937.20",
-      "tradevolume": "5909.11",
-      "stars": 3
+      "numforecasts": "109",
+      "liquidity": "1627.77",
+      "tradevolume": "7774.07",
+      "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
@@ -94810,20 +93532,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.01871227938628007397703016365088921",
+        "probability": "0.02473055162526964034571604770690186",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.9812877206137199260229698363491108",
+        "probability": "0.9752694483747303596542839522930981",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "749",
-      "liquidity": "1560.56",
-      "tradevolume": "46849.39",
+      "numforecasts": "756",
+      "liquidity": "1060.10",
+      "tradevolume": "46930.79",
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94836,20 +93558,20 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": "0.2789203023155218750539324458764663",
+        "probability": "0.2599063596023499568399787429996848",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": "0.7210796976844781249460675541235337",
+        "probability": "0.7400936403976500431600212570003152",
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:13.986Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:04.834Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": "66",
-      "liquidity": "1298.34",
-      "tradevolume": "2295.14",
+      "numforecasts": "76",
+      "liquidity": "3377.52",
+      "tradevolume": "2517.99",
       "stars": 4
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -94862,26 +93584,26 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.5142857142857143,
+        "probability": 0.5094339622641509,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.4476190476190476,
+        "probability": 0.45283018867924524,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Libertarian",
-        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+        "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Green",
-        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+        "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:19.519Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:09.117Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -94904,7 +93626,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:23.758Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:14.486Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -94927,7 +93649,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:27.117Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:18.863Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -94950,7 +93672,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:31.993Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:22.632Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -94964,16 +93686,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.13,
+        "probability": 0.12,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.87,
+        "probability": 0.88,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:36.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:27.378Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -94987,16 +93709,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.12,
+        "probability": 0.14,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.88,
+        "probability": 0.86,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:40.697Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:30.589Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95019,7 +93741,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:44.136Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:35.444Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95042,7 +93764,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:49.565Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:39.524Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95056,16 +93778,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.9405940594059405,
+        "probability": 0.94,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:52.846Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:44.134Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95079,16 +93801,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.7647058823529412,
+        "probability": 0.7596153846153846,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.23529411764705882,
+        "probability": 0.24038461538461536,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:49:56.129Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:47.988Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95102,86 +93824,86 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Eric Adams",
-        "probability": 0.857142857142857,
+        "probability": 0.8584070796460176,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
-        "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
+        "probability": 0.017699115044247787,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Andrew Yang",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Shaun Donovan",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Raymond McGuire",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Scott Stringer",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Loree Sutton",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Maya Wiley",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Dianne Morales",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Max Rose",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Zach Iscol",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "John Catsimatidis",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Paperboy Prince",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Fernando Mateo",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:50:01.854Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:51.611Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95195,16 +93917,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.27,
+        "probability": 0.28,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.73,
+        "probability": 0.72,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:50:07.223Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:47:57.621Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95218,16 +93940,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.11,
+        "probability": 0.12,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.89,
+        "probability": 0.88,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:50:12.863Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:48:01.480Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95250,7 +93972,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:50:17.207Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:48:07.300Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95264,16 +93986,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.5643564356435643,
+        "probability": 0.5686274509803921,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.43564356435643564,
+        "probability": 0.43137254901960786,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:50:20.837Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:48:12.751Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -95287,16 +94009,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Republican",
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@@ -95636,41 +94358,41 @@
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@@ -95730,16 +94452,16 @@
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@@ -95883,7 +94605,7 @@
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@@ -95897,16 +94619,16 @@
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@@ -95952,7 +94674,7 @@
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@@ -96147,7 +94869,7 @@
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@@ -96328,7 +95050,7 @@
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@@ -96342,60 +95064,60 @@
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         "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
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         "name": "Xi Jinping",
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   {
     "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
@@ -96405,12 +95127,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
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@@ -96429,7 +95151,7 @@
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@@ -96443,51 +95165,51 @@
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@@ -96506,50 +95228,50 @@
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   {
     "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
@@ -96568,7 +95290,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:52:32.223Z",
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@@ -96591,7 +95313,7 @@
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@@ -96605,16 +95327,16 @@
     "options": [
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@@ -96628,22 +95350,22 @@
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@@ -96711,16 +95433,16 @@
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@@ -96734,16 +95456,16 @@
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@@ -96757,16 +95479,16 @@
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@@ -96780,60 +95502,60 @@
     "options": [
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     "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?",
@@ -96843,51 +95565,51 @@
     "options": [
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@@ -96901,21 +95623,21 @@
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@@ -96930,11 +95652,11 @@
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     "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
@@ -96944,65 +95666,70 @@
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:22.543Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:24.396Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Kelvin King, Buddy Carter, David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, Doug Collins, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Kelvin King, Buddy Carter, David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, Latham Saddler, Doug Collins, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones"
   },
   {
     "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
@@ -97031,7 +95758,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:27.960Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:27.799Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97045,16 +95772,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.94,
+        "probability": 0.97,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
+        "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:32.467Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:32.202Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97068,7 +95795,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Eric Greitens",
-        "probability": 0.35,
+        "probability": 0.33,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97078,22 +95805,22 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Eric Schmitt",
-        "probability": 0.15,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Jason Smith",
-        "probability": 0.08,
+        "probability": 0.17,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Vicky Hartzler",
+        "probability": 0.11,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Jason Smith",
         "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Mark McCloskey",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.04,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97127,11 +95854,11 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:35.896Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:37.123Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Greitens, Billy Long, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Vicky Hartzler, Mark McCloskey, Roy Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Greitens, Billy Long, Eric Schmitt, Vicky Hartzler, Jason Smith, Mark McCloskey, Roy Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
   },
   {
     "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
@@ -97180,7 +95907,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:40.951Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:41.460Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97194,16 +95921,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.08,
+        "probability": 0.13,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.92,
+        "probability": 0.87,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:45.165Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:47.110Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97232,27 +95959,27 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "8 or 9 votes",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.02,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "10 or 11 votes",
-        "probability": 0.16,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "12 or 13 votes",
-        "probability": 0.18,
+        "probability": 0.17,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "14 or 15 votes",
-        "probability": 0.18,
+        "probability": 0.19,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "16 or 17 votes",
-        "probability": 0.14,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97262,11 +95989,11 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "20 or more",
-        "probability": 0.12,
+        "probability": 0.1,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:48.826Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:51.513Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97289,7 +96016,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:53:54.778Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:51:56.687Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97303,26 +96030,26 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
-        "probability": 0.3962264150943396,
+        "probability": 0.4077669902912621,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "R House, D Senate",
-        "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
+        "probability": 0.30097087378640774,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
-        "probability": 0.2169811320754717,
+        "probability": 0.20388349514563106,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "D House, R Senate",
-        "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
+        "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:00.442Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:00.849Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97334,72 +96061,72 @@
     "platform": "PredictIt",
     "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
     "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Letitia James",
-        "probability": 0.39449541284403666,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
       {
         "name": "Kathy Hochul",
-        "probability": 0.2844036697247706,
+        "probability": 0.3490566037735849,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
-        "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
-        "probability": 0.08256880733944953,
+        "name": "Letitia James",
+        "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jumaane Williams",
-        "probability": 0.07339449541284403,
+        "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
+        "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
-        "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
-        "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
+        "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Bill de Blasio",
-        "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
+        "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
-        "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Andrew Yang",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Tom Suozzi",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Hillary Clinton",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
+        "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Andrew Yang",
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Tom Suozzi",
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:06.516Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:06.257Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Kathy Hochul, Andrew Cuomo, Jumaane Williams, Alessandra Biaggi, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Kathy Hochul, Letitia James, Jumaane Williams, Andrew Cuomo, Alessandra Biaggi, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Hillary Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Tom Suozzi"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
@@ -97409,16 +96136,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.24,
+        "probability": 0.27,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.76,
+        "probability": 0.73,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:12.247Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:11.443Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97432,31 +96159,31 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Cheri Beasley",
-        "probability": 0.6272727272727272,
+        "probability": 0.6095238095238095,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jeff Jackson",
-        "probability": 0.3181818181818181,
+        "probability": 0.3333333333333333,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Erica Smith",
-        "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+        "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Heath Shuler",
-        "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
+        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:18.298Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:17.573Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97470,21 +96197,21 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.8349514563106796,
+        "probability": 0.8269230769230769,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Independent",
-        "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
+        "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
+        "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:21.487Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:22.739Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97498,46 +96225,46 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Mandela Barnes",
-        "probability": 0.6194690265486724,
+        "probability": 0.6293103448275862,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Alex Lasry",
-        "probability": 0.16814159292035397,
+        "probability": 0.16379310344827588,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sarah Godlewski",
-        "probability": 0.11504424778761062,
+        "probability": 0.1120689655172414,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Gillian Battino",
-        "probability": 0.035398230088495575,
+        "probability": 0.03448275862068966,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Tom Nelson",
-        "probability": 0.026548672566371678,
+        "probability": 0.02586206896551724,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ron Kind",
-        "probability": 0.017699115044247787,
+        "probability": 0.01724137931034483,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Chris Larson",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+        "probability": 0.008620689655172415,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Steven Olikara",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+        "probability": 0.008620689655172415,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:25.269Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:26.805Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97551,16 +96278,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.97,
+        "probability": 0.98,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
+        "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:29.401Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:30.037Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97574,46 +96301,46 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Mo Brooks",
-        "probability": 0.5727272727272726,
+        "probability": 0.5675675675675675,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Katie Britt",
-        "probability": 0.35454545454545455,
+        "probability": 0.36036036036036034,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
-        "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+        "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Richard Shelby",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "John Merrill",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Roy Moore",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jeff Sessions",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jessica Taylor",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:33.981Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:33.371Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97627,16 +96354,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.33,
+        "probability": 0.31,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+        "probability": 0.69,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:38.097Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:37.993Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97650,31 +96377,31 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Chuck Grassley",
-        "probability": 0.6634615384615384,
+        "probability": 0.6074766355140186,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Pat Grassley",
-        "probability": 0.16346153846153846,
+        "probability": 0.22429906542056072,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ashley Hinson",
-        "probability": 0.125,
+        "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Matthew Whitaker",
-        "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+        "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jim Carlin",
-        "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+        "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:43.125Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:42.036Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97688,7 +96415,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Ron Johnson",
-        "probability": 0.48,
+        "probability": 0.45,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97698,12 +96425,12 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
-        "probability": 0.07,
+        "probability": 0.04,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Brian Steil",
-        "probability": 0.04,
+        "probability": 0.03,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97712,7 +96439,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:48.310Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:47.422Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97735,7 +96462,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:54.383Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:51.936Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97749,7 +96476,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Brian Kemp",
-        "probability": 0.6274509803921569,
+        "probability": 0.6078431372549019,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97757,19 +96484,19 @@
         "probability": 0.29411764705882354,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
+      {
+        "name": "Ames Barnett",
+        "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
       {
         "name": "Herschel Walker",
         "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
-      {
-        "name": "Ames Barnett",
-        "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
       {
         "name": "Doug Collins",
-        "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+        "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -97778,11 +96505,11 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:54:58.334Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:52:56.287Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker, Ames Barnett, Doug Collins, Marjorie Greene"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Ames Barnett, Herschel Walker, Doug Collins, Marjorie Greene"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021?",
@@ -97792,16 +96519,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.87,
+        "probability": 0.95,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.13,
+        "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:04.152Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:53:01.758Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97824,7 +96551,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:08.594Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:53:05.613Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -97838,21 +96565,21 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Jody Hice",
-        "probability": 0.7920792079207921,
+        "probability": 0.8,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Brad Raffensperger",
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@@ -97866,41 +96593,41 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Lucas Kunce",
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         "name": "Scott Sifton",
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         "name": "Claire McCaskill",
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         "name": "Jay Nixon",
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         "name": "Brian Williams",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:16.235Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:53:14.474Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -97914,16 +96641,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Republican",
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       },
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         "name": "Democratic",
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@@ -97937,16 +96664,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
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+        "probability": 0.91,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
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       }
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@@ -97969,7 +96696,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
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     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -97983,26 +96710,26 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Ron DeSantis",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Nikki Fried",
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       {
         "name": "Charlie Crist",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Val Demings",
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+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:53:35.945Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -98016,56 +96743,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Gavin Newsom",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Larry Elder",
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       {
         "name": "Kevin Paffrath",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Kevin Faulconer",
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       {
         "name": "Caitlyn Jenner",
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       {
         "name": "John Cox",
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       {
         "name": "Doug Ose",
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       {
         "name": "Richard Grenell",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Eleni Kounalakis",
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       },
       {
         "name": "Kevin Kiley",
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       }
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     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -98079,16 +96806,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:45.989Z",
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     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -98102,16 +96829,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:50.281Z",
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     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -98125,65 +96852,65 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Mark Brnovich",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Blake Masters",
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       {
         "name": "Andy Biggs",
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         "name": "Doug Ducey",
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-        "name": "Jim Lamon",
-        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
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         "name": "Paul Gosar",
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       {
         "name": "Kelli Ward",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Kirk Adams",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Kimberly Yee",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Martha McSally",
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+        "name": "Mick McGuire",
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+        "name": "Jim Lamon",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:53.529Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:53:54.459Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Brnovich, Blake Masters, Andy Biggs, Doug Ducey, Mick McGuire, Jim Lamon, Paul Gosar, Kelli Ward, Kirk Adams, Kimberly Yee, Martha McSally"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Brnovich, Blake Masters, Andy Biggs, Doug Ducey, Paul Gosar, Kelli Ward, Kirk Adams, Kimberly Yee, Martha McSally, Mick McGuire, Jim Lamon"
   },
   {
     "title": "How many refugees will Biden authorize to be admitted in the next fiscal year?",
@@ -98222,7 +96949,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:55:59.205Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:53:59.922Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -98236,56 +96963,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Naftali Bennett",
-        "probability": 0.8878504672897195,
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Benny Gantz",
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       {
         "name": "Gideon Sa'ar",
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       {
         "name": "Avigdor Lieberman",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Aryeh Deri",
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       {
         "name": "Merav Michaeli",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Moshe Gafni",
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       {
         "name": "Yair Lapid",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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       {
         "name": "Ayelet Shaked",
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:05.250Z",
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@@ -98299,26 +97026,26 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "21% or lower",
-        "probability": 0.43,
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       {
         "name": "21.1% to 24.5%",
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       },
       {
         "name": "24.6% to 27.9%",
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       {
         "name": "28% or higher",
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       }
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:09.761Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:09.174Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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@@ -98332,21 +97059,21 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Greg Abbott",
-        "probability": 0.7981651376146789,
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       {
         "name": "Don Huffines",
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-        "name": "Allen West",
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       },
       {
         "name": "Matthew McConaughey",
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+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Allen West",
         "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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@@ -98376,11 +97103,11 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:13.283Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:12.386Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Don Huffines, Allen West, Matthew McConaughey, Chad Prather, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Don Huffines, Matthew McConaughey, Allen West, Chad Prather, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick"
   },
   {
     "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
@@ -98390,12 +97117,12 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Beto O'Rourke",
-        "probability": 0.43,
+        "probability": 0.4,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Matthew McConaughey",
-        "probability": 0.17,
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@@ -98414,7 +97141,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:16.793Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:17.693Z",
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@@ -98428,16 +97155,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
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-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:22.449Z",
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@@ -98451,16 +97178,16 @@
     "options": [
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-        "probability": 0.35,
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       {
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:27.685Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:28.427Z",
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@@ -98483,7 +97210,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:33.502Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:34.306Z",
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@@ -98497,45 +97224,45 @@
     "options": [
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         "name": "Adam Laxalt",
-        "probability": 0.75,
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-      {
-        "name": "Mark Amodei",
-        "probability": 0.05,
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       {
         "name": "Brian Sandoval",
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       {
         "name": "Heidi Gansert",
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         "name": "Jill Tolles",
-        "probability": 0.02,
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       },
       {
         "name": "Mark Hutchison",
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:37.360Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:38.912Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
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-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Adam Laxalt, Ben Kieckhefer, Mark Amodei, Brian Sandoval, Heidi Gansert, Jill Tolles, Mark Hutchison"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Adam Laxalt, Ben Kieckhefer, Brian Sandoval, Mark Amodei, Heidi Gansert, Jill Tolles, Mark Hutchison"
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   {
     "title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?",
@@ -98545,46 +97272,46 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "23 or fewer",
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       {
         "name": "24",
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       {
         "name": "25",
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       {
         "name": "27",
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       {
         "name": "28",
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       {
         "name": "29",
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       {
         "name": "30 or more",
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     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:42.847Z",
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@@ -98598,60 +97325,60 @@
     "options": [
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         "name": "Charlie Baker",
-        "probability": 0.5596330275229358,
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       },
       {
         "name": "Maura Healey",
-        "probability": 0.3119266055045872,
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       {
         "name": "Karyn Polito",
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       {
         "name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz",
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-      {
-        "name": "Danielle Allen",
-        "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
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       {
         "name": "Geoff Diehl",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
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       },
       {
         "name": "Benjamin Downing",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
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         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ayanna Pressley",
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+        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Joe Kennedy III",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jay Gonzalez",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:46.122Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:47.384Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Baker, Maura Healey, Karyn Polito, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Danielle Allen, Geoff Diehl, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Baker, Maura Healey, Karyn Polito, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Geoff Diehl, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Danielle Allen, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez"
   },
   {
     "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?",
@@ -98661,7 +97388,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Chris Sununu",
-        "probability": 0.75,
+        "probability": 0.74,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -98675,7 +97402,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:51.065Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:50.625Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98689,45 +97416,45 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Dennis Kucinich",
-        "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Zack Reed",
-        "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Basheer Jones",
-        "probability": 0.11214953271028036,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Kevin Kelley",
-        "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.5047619047619047,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Justin Bibb",
-        "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Zack Reed",
+        "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Kevin Kelley",
+        "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Basheer Jones",
+        "probability": 0.0857142857142857,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sandra Williams",
-        "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
+        "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Blaine Griffin",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:56:56.359Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:53.917Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Dennis Kucinich, Zack Reed, Basheer Jones, Kevin Kelley, Justin Bibb, Sandra Williams, Blaine Griffin"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Dennis Kucinich, Justin Bibb, Zack Reed, Kevin Kelley, Basheer Jones, Sandra Williams, Blaine Griffin"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
@@ -98746,7 +97473,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:00.088Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:54:59.146Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98804,7 +97531,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:05.770Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:03.662Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98837,7 +97564,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:09.171Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:09.430Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98851,16 +97578,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.59,
+        "probability": 0.61,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
+        "probability": 0.39,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:13.696Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:13.354Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98874,65 +97601,65 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Kasim Reed",
-        "probability": 0.67,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Felicia Moore",
-        "probability": 0.17,
+        "probability": 0.504,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Andre Dickens",
-        "probability": 0.06,
+        "probability": 0.22400000000000003,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
-        "name": "Keisha Bottoms",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Mary Norwood",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "name": "Felicia Moore",
+        "probability": 0.192,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sharon Gay",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Alex Barrella",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Jason Carter",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Cathy Woolard",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0.016,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Steve Koonin",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0.016,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Keisha Bottoms",
+        "probability": 0.008,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Mary Norwood",
+        "probability": 0.008,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Alex Barrella",
+        "probability": 0.008,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Jason Carter",
+        "probability": 0.008,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Cathy Woolard",
+        "probability": 0.008,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Antonio Brown",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0.008,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:18.747Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:16.548Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Kasim Reed, Felicia Moore, Andre Dickens, Keisha Bottoms, Mary Norwood, Sharon Gay, Alex Barrella, Jason Carter, Cathy Woolard, Steve Koonin, Antonio Brown"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Kasim Reed, Andre Dickens, Felicia Moore, Sharon Gay, Steve Koonin, Keisha Bottoms, Mary Norwood, Alex Barrella, Jason Carter, Cathy Woolard, Antonio Brown"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2021?",
@@ -98951,7 +97678,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:22.428Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:20.366Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98979,7 +97706,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:28.224Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:24.194Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -98993,16 +97720,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.32,
+        "probability": 0.31,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+        "probability": 0.69,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:33.618Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:29.322Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99016,45 +97743,45 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Lee Zeldin",
-        "probability": 0.8125,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "George Pataki",
-        "probability": 0.08035714285714285,
+        "probability": 0.8252427184466019,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Andrew Giuliani",
-        "probability": 0.0625,
+        "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "George Pataki",
+        "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Rob Astorino",
-        "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
+        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Mike Carpinelli",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "John Catsimatidis",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Chris Gibson",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:39.026Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:33.532Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Lee Zeldin, George Pataki, Andrew Giuliani, Rob Astorino, Mike Carpinelli, John Catsimatidis, Chris Gibson"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Lee Zeldin, Andrew Giuliani, George Pataki, Rob Astorino, Mike Carpinelli, John Catsimatidis, Chris Gibson"
   },
   {
     "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?",
@@ -99064,49 +97791,26 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Ken Paxton",
-        "probability": 0.6380952380952382,
+        "probability": 0.6442307692307693,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "George P. Bush",
-        "probability": 0.24761904761904763,
+        "probability": 0.24038461538461536,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Eva Guzman",
-        "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:42.777Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:37.790Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Eva Guzman"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "Will the Senate use reconciliation by August 6?",
-    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7314/Will-the-Senate-use-reconciliation-by-August-6",
-    "platform": "PredictIt",
-    "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 06/07/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on June 3, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 06/07/2021 10:48 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The subject of this market is a “bill”, not a resolution.\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:46.808Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
-  },
   {
     "title": "How many successful filibusters will there be in 2021?",
     "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7324/How-many-successful-filibusters-will-there-be-in-2021",
@@ -99120,12 +97824,12 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "4 or 5",
-        "probability": 0.17,
+        "probability": 0.15,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "6 or 7",
-        "probability": 0.15,
+        "probability": 0.2,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -99140,7 +97844,7 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "12 or 13",
-        "probability": 0.07,
+        "probability": 0.04,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -99164,7 +97868,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:51.491Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:42.085Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99178,85 +97882,85 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Kevin McCarthy",
-        "probability": 0.5428571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.5599999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Hakeem Jeffries",
-        "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+        "probability": 0.12999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Nancy Pelosi",
-        "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "James Clyburn",
-        "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
+        "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Donald Trump",
-        "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
+        "probability": 0.039999999999999994,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "James Clyburn",
+        "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Steve Scalise",
-        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+        "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Steny Hoyer",
-        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+        "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Adam Schiff",
-        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+        "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Katherine Clark",
-        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+        "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Elise Stefanik",
-        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+        "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Cathy McM. Rodgers",
-        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+        "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Karen Bass",
-        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+        "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jim Jordan",
-        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+        "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Cheri Bustos",
-        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+        "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
-        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+        "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:55.019Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:46.547Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, James Clyburn, Donald Trump, Steve Scalise, Steny Hoyer, Adam Schiff, Katherine Clark, Elise Stefanik, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Jim Jordan, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, James Clyburn, Steve Scalise, Steny Hoyer, Adam Schiff, Katherine Clark, Elise Stefanik, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Jim Jordan, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022?",
@@ -99266,16 +97970,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.05,
+        "probability": 0.06,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.95,
+        "probability": 0.94,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:57:59.673Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:51.560Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99289,41 +97993,41 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Brad Little",
-        "probability": 0.6964285714285714,
+        "probability": 0.6761904761904761,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Janice McGeachin",
-        "probability": 0.2232142857142857,
+        "probability": 0.23809523809523808,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ammon Bundy",
-        "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
+        "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Raúl Labrador",
-        "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
+        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ed Humphreys",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jeff Cotton",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Russ Fulcher",
-        "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:04.351Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:55:56.358Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99337,26 +98041,26 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Josh Shapiro",
-        "probability": 0.91,
+        "probability": 0.9333333333333332,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sara Innamorato",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Joe Torsella",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jim Kenney",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:10.097Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:01.454Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99370,67 +98074,67 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Lou Barletta",
-        "probability": 0.4587155963302752,
+        "probability": 0.47115384615384615,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Doug Mastriano",
-        "probability": 0.2935779816513761,
+        "probability": 0.28846153846153844,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "William McSwain",
-        "probability": 0.1559633027522936,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Joe Gale",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Charlie Gerow",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.125,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Scott Martin",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Mike Kelly",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Dan Laughlin",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Dan Meuser",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Joe Gale",
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Charlie Gerow",
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Mike Kelly",
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Dan Laughlin",
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ryan Aument",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jim Cawley",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Brian Fitzpatrick",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -99449,11 +98153,11 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:16.182Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:05.836Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, William McSwain, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Scott Martin, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Dan Meuser, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr., Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, William McSwain, Scott Martin, Dan Meuser, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr., Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama"
   },
   {
     "title": "How many VA House seats will Democrats win in the 2021 election?",
@@ -99463,56 +98167,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "43 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.03636363636363636,
+        "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "44 or 45",
-        "probability": 0.045454545454545456,
+        "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "46 or 47",
-        "probability": 0.1272727272727273,
+        "probability": 0.11214953271028036,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "48 or 49",
-        "probability": 0.23636363636363636,
+        "probability": 0.24299065420560748,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50 or 51",
-        "probability": 0.21818181818181814,
+        "probability": 0.22429906542056072,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52 or 53",
-        "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
+        "probability": 0.205607476635514,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "54 or 55",
-        "probability": 0.0818181818181818,
+        "probability": 0.08411214953271028,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "56 or 57",
-        "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+        "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "58 or 59",
-        "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
+        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "60 or more",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:20.936Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:11.849Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99526,70 +98230,75 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Gabriel Boric",
-        "probability": 0.4722222222222222,
+        "probability": 0.37951807228915657,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "José Antonio Kast",
+        "probability": 0.3012048192771084,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sebastián Sichel",
-        "probability": 0.2962962962962963,
+        "probability": 0.1506024096385542,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Yasna Provoste",
-        "probability": 0.07407407407407407,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Carlos Maldonado",
-        "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
+        "probability": 0.08433734939759036,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Paula Narváez",
-        "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
+        "probability": 0.030120481927710843,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Carlos Maldonado",
+        "probability": 0.012048192771084336,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Daniel Jadue",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Joaquín Lavín",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ignacio Briones",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Mario Desbordes",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Pamela Jiles",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "M. Enríquez-Ominami",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Andrés Velasco",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+        "probability": 0.006024096385542168,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:26.892Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:17.846Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Gabriel Boric, Sebastián Sichel, Yasna Provoste, Carlos Maldonado, Paula Narváez, Daniel Jadue, Joaquín Lavín, Ignacio Briones, Mario Desbordes, Pamela Jiles, M. Enríquez-Ominami, Andrés Velasco"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Gabriel Boric, José Antonio Kast, Sebastián Sichel, Yasna Provoste, Paula Narváez, Carlos Maldonado, Daniel Jadue, Joaquín Lavín, Ignacio Briones, Mario Desbordes, Pamela Jiles, M. Enríquez-Ominami, Andrés Velasco"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Sweden hold national elections by Sept. 15?",
@@ -99608,7 +98317,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:32.534Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:21.864Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99622,56 +98331,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Luiz Lula da Silva",
-        "probability": 0.6355140186915887,
+        "probability": 0.6226415094339622,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
-        "probability": 0.21495327102803738,
+        "probability": 0.22641509433962262,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "João Doria",
-        "probability": 0.05607476635514018,
+        "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Ciro Gomes",
-        "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+        "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Fernando Haddad",
-        "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+        "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Flávio Dino",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Guilherme Boulos",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Marina Silva",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "João Amoêdo",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sergio Moro",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:37.623Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:26.078Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99694,7 +98403,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:41.185Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:30.511Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99708,81 +98417,81 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
-        "probability": 0.5229357798165136,
+        "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
-        "probability": 0.17431192660550457,
+        "probability": 0.18181818181818182,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Marine Le Pen",
-        "probability": 0.14678899082568805,
+        "probability": 0.13636363636363635,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon ",
-        "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
+        "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
-        "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
+        "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Yannick Jadot",
-        "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
+        "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Nathalie Arthaud",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Philippe Poutou",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Fabien Roussel",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Michel Barnier",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "François Baroin",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "N. Dupont-Aignan",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "François Asselineau",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:46.507Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:35.292Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99805,7 +98514,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:50.917Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:41.337Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -99819,74 +98528,21 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.18,
+        "probability": 0.17,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+        "probability": 0.83,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:54.799Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:45.497Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many federal judges will be confirmed by Aug. 6?",
-    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7365/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Aug-6",
-    "platform": "PredictIt",
-    "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –\nUnited States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Claims, and the Supreme Court of the United States.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "8 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.8623853211009174,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "9",
-        "probability": 0.08256880733944953,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "10",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "11",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "12",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "13",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "14",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "15 or more",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:58:58.121Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "8 or fewer, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 or more"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022?",
     "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022",
@@ -99929,75 +98585,12 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:01.789Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:49.875Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Sergio Fajardo, Gustavo Petro, Alejandro Char, Federico Gutiérrez, Marta Lucía Ramírez, Humberto de la Calle, Tomás Uribe"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many votes to confirm Margaret Strickland to the District Ct. of NM by 8/6?",
-    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7376/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Margaret-Strickland-to-the-District-Ct-of-NM-by-8-6",
-    "platform": "PredictIt",
-    "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Margaret Strickland (the \"Nominee\") to be a judge on the United States District Court for the District of New Mexico (the \"Office\"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"66 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "49 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.9166666666666666,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "50 or 51",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "52 or 53",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "54 or 55",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "56 or 57",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "58 or 59",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "60 or 61",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "62 or 63",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "64 or 65",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "66 or more",
-        "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:04.973Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50 or 51, 52 or 53, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or more"
-  },
   {
     "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election?",
     "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election",
@@ -100015,7 +98608,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:10.404Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:56:54.307Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100029,16 +98622,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.5048543689320388,
+        "probability": 0.504950495049505,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.49514563106796117,
+        "probability": 0.49504950495049505,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:15.387Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:00.324Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100052,16 +98645,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.78,
+        "probability": 0.79,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+        "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:18.821Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:05.842Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100075,16 +98668,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.56,
+        "probability": 0.5714285714285714,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.43,
+        "probability": 0.42857142857142855,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:22.547Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:11.556Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100098,16 +98691,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.62,
+        "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.37,
+        "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:26.525Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:15.472Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100121,16 +98714,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.73,
+        "probability": 0.7352941176470588,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.27,
+        "probability": 0.2647058823529412,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:30.410Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:19.650Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100144,16 +98737,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
+        "probability": 0.5841584158415841,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
+        "probability": 0.4158415841584158,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:36.261Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:24.594Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100176,7 +98769,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:42.070Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:29.586Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100190,16 +98783,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Democratic",
-        "probability": 0.6792452830188679,
+        "probability": 0.67,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Republican",
-        "probability": 0.32075471698113206,
+        "probability": 0.33,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:46.305Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:33.962Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100213,45 +98806,45 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio",
-        "probability": 0.41,
+        "probability": 0.4299999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Manny Pacquiao",
-        "probability": 0.31,
+        "probability": 0.3999999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Leni Robredo",
-        "probability": 0.07,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Sonny Angara",
-        "probability": 0.05,
+        "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Alan Peter Cayetano",
-        "probability": 0.05,
+        "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Antonio Trillanes",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Panfilo Lacson",
-        "probability": 0.02,
+        "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Sonny Angara",
+        "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:52.036Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:38.929Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Sara Duterte-Carpio, Manny Pacquiao, Leni Robredo, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes, Panfilo Lacson"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Sara Duterte-Carpio, Manny Pacquiao, Leni Robredo, Alan Peter Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes, Panfilo Lacson, Sonny Angara"
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Texas legislature pass an elections bill by Aug. 9?",
@@ -100270,7 +98863,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T14:59:56.592Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:42.541Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100293,7 +98886,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:00.093Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:46.054Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100307,16 +98900,16 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "India Walton",
-        "probability": 0.77,
+        "probability": 0.84,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Byron Brown",
-        "probability": 0.23,
+        "probability": 0.16,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:05.153Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:50.956Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100330,7 +98923,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Jerome Powell",
-        "probability": 0.7475728155339806,
+        "probability": 0.7572815533980582,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -100340,17 +98933,17 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "Raphael Bostic",
-        "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Roger Ferguson",
         "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
+      {
+        "name": "Roger Ferguson",
+        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
       {
         "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin",
-        "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -100359,80 +98952,12 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:11.032Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:57:56.187Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard, Raphael Bostic, Roger Ferguson, Sarah Bloom Raskin, William Spriggs"
   },
-  {
-    "title": "How many votes in the Senate for the infrastructure deal by Aug. 6?",
-    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7400/How-many-votes-in-the-Senate-for-the-infrastructure-deal-by-Aug-6",
-    "platform": "PredictIt",
-    "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Senate who vote in favor of passage of a qualifying infrastructure bill by the End Date listed below. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying infrastructure bill will be any bill that seeks to implement, in whole or in part, the bipartisan infrastructure framework.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the motion via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the motion via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"78 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes, and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
-    "options": [
-      {
-        "name": "59 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.9082568807339448,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "60 or 61",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "62 or 63",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "64 or 65",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "66 or 67",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "68 or 69",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "70 or 71",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "72 or 73",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "74 or 75",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "76 or 77",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "78 or more",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      }
-    ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:15.103Z",
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 3
-    },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "59 or fewer, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or 67, 68 or 69, 70 or 71, 72 or 73, 74 or 75, 76 or 77, 78 or more"
-  },
   {
     "title": "How many votes to confirm Eunice Lee to the Second Circuit by Oct. 1?",
     "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7401/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Eunice-Lee-to-the-Second-Circuit-by-Oct-1",
@@ -100441,56 +98966,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "49 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.1946902654867257,
+        "probability": 0.15315315315315314,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50",
-        "probability": 0.30973451327433627,
+        "probability": 0.7387387387387386,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51",
-        "probability": 0.29203539823008856,
+        "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52",
-        "probability": 0.14159292035398233,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "53",
-        "probability": 0.01769911504424779,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "54",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123895,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "55",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123895,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "56",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123895,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "57",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123895,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "58 or more",
-        "probability": 0.008849557522123895,
+        "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:18.758Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:02.178Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100504,7 +99029,7 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "49 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.18518518518518517,
+        "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -100514,12 +99039,12 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "51",
-        "probability": 0.1111111111111111,
+        "probability": 0.10185185185185185,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52",
-        "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
+        "probability": 0.25,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -100549,11 +99074,11 @@
       },
       {
         "name": "58 or more",
-        "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+        "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:22.465Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:06.460Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100567,56 +99092,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "49 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.35779816513761464,
+        "probability": 0.2815533980582524,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50",
-        "probability": 0.16513761467889906,
+        "probability": 0.17475728155339804,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51",
-        "probability": 0.17431192660550457,
+        "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52",
-        "probability": 0.14678899082568805,
+        "probability": 0.14563106796116504,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "53",
-        "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
+        "probability": 0.07766990291262135,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "54",
-        "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
+        "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "55",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "56",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "57",
-        "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "58 or more",
-        "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
+        "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:26.181Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:11.362Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100679,7 +99204,7 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:29.679Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:15.345Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100693,60 +99218,60 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
-        "probability": 0.5128205128205128,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Muhyiddin Yassin",
-        "probability": 0.15384615384615383,
+        "probability": 0.3493150684931507,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Scott Morrison",
-        "probability": 0.15384615384615383,
+        "probability": 0.13013698630136986,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
-        "name": "Rodrigo Duterte",
-        "probability": 0.07692307692307691,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Naftali Bennett",
-        "probability": 0.05128205128205127,
+        "name": "Muhyiddin Yassin",
+        "probability": 0.1232876712328767,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Narendra Modi",
-        "probability": 0.017094017094017092,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Moon Jae-in",
-        "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Joko Widodo",
-        "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
+        "probability": 0.10958904109589042,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
-        "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
+        "probability": 0.09589041095890412,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Rodrigo Duterte",
+        "probability": 0.06164383561643835,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Moon Jae-in",
+        "probability": 0.04794520547945206,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Naftali Bennett",
+        "probability": 0.0410958904109589,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Joko Widodo",
+        "probability": 0.03424657534246576,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Sheikh Hasina",
-        "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
+        "probability": 0.006849315068493151,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:33.285Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:20.514Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Muhyiddin Yassin, Scott Morrison, Rodrigo Duterte, Naftali Bennett, Narendra Modi, Moon Jae-in, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Sheikh Hasina"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Scott Morrison, Muhyiddin Yassin, Narendra Modi, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rodrigo Duterte, Moon Jae-in, Naftali Bennett, Joko Widodo, Sheikh Hasina"
   },
   {
     "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election?",
@@ -100755,28 +99280,23 @@
     "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S. Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
     "options": [
       {
-        "name": "Liz Cheney",
+        "name": "Chuck Gray",
         "probability": 0.29,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
-        "name": "Chuck Gray",
-        "probability": 0.22,
+        "name": "Liz Cheney",
+        "probability": 0.28,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Darin Smith",
-        "probability": 0.15,
+        "probability": 0.19,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Anthony Bouchard",
-        "probability": 0.14,
-        "type": "PROBABILITY"
-      },
-      {
-        "name": "Bo Biteman",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.08,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
@@ -100809,40 +99329,75 @@
         "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
+      {
+        "name": "Bo Biteman",
+        "probability": 0.01,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
       {
         "name": "Catharine O'Neill",
         "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:38.368Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:25.912Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Liz Cheney, Chuck Gray, Darin Smith, Anthony Bouchard, Bo Biteman, Ed Buchanan, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Perry Pendley, Catharine O'Neill"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Gray, Liz Cheney, Darin Smith, Anthony Bouchard, Ed Buchanan, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Perry Pendley, Bo Biteman, Catharine O'Neill"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will Peter Meijer be appointed to the January 6 Select Committee by Aug. 6?",
-    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7413/Will-Peter-Meijer-be-appointed-to-the-January-6-Select-Committee-by-Aug-6",
+    "title": "Who will be the next elected speaker of the New York City council?",
+    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7414/Who-will-be-the-next-elected-speaker-of-the-New-York-City-council",
     "platform": "PredictIt",
-    "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) is officially appointed to the House select committee to investigate the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol, by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+    "description": "This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the next elected Speaker of the New York City Council, subsequent to the launch of this market on August 5, 2021. \nAn individual serving as Acting President Pro Tempore or otherwise serving as a presiding officer on a temporary basis will be insufficient to cause the contract identifying that individual to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
     "options": [
       {
-        "name": "Yes",
+        "name": "Keith Powers",
+        "probability": 0.25,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Carlina Rivera",
+        "probability": 0.18,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Tiffany Cabán",
+        "probability": 0.1,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Gale Brewer",
         "probability": 0.01,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
-        "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
+        "name": "Adrienne Adams",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Justin Brannan",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Diana Ayala",
+        "probability": 0,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Francisco Moya",
+        "probability": 0,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:42.257Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:29.535Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
-    "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Keith Powers, Carlina Rivera, Tiffany Cabán, Gale Brewer, Adrienne Adams, Justin Brannan, Diana Ayala, Francisco Moya"
   },
   {
     "title": "What will be the margin in the OH-11 special election Democratic primary?",
@@ -100852,79 +99407,79 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Brown, > 6%",
-        "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
+        "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Brown, 4% - 6%",
-        "probability": 0.8598130841121495,
+        "probability": 0.8857142857142857,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Brown, 2% - 4%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Brown under 2%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Turner under 2%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Turner, 2% - 4%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Turner, 4% - 6%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Turner, 6% - 8%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Turner, 8% - 10%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "Turner, > 10%",
-        "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+        "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:45.806Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:35.423Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "Brown, > 6%, Brown, 4% - 6%, Brown, 2% - 4%, Brown under 2%, Turner under 2%, Turner, 2% - 4%, Turner, 4% - 6%, Turner, 6% - 8%, Turner, 8% - 10%, Turner, > 10%"
   },
   {
-    "title": "Will Senate vote by Aug. 6 to begin budget reconciliation process?",
-    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7422/Will-Senate-vote-by-Aug-6-to-begin-budget-reconciliation-process",
+    "title": "Will Congress raise or suspend the debt limit by Oct. 1?",
+    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7421/Will-Congress-raise-or-suspend-the-debt-limit-by-Oct-1",
     "platform": "PredictIt",
-    "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on July 30, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a budget resolution that begins the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+    "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on August 6, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, federal legislation is enacted with the effect of increasing, suspending, or otherwise adjusting the federal debt limit. \nEnactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 10/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
-        "probability": 0.01,
+        "probability": 0.68,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "No",
-        "probability": 0.99,
+        "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:49.576Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:40.964Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -100938,56 +99493,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "49 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.33035714285714285,
+        "probability": 0.4368932038834951,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50",
-        "probability": 0.26785714285714285,
+        "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51",
-        "probability": 0.2589285714285714,
+        "probability": 0.14563106796116504,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.07766990291262135,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "53",
-        "probability": 0.044642857142857144,
+        "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "54",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "55",
-        "probability": 0.02678571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "56",
-        "probability": 0.02678571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "57",
-        "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
+        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "58 or more",
-        "probability": 0.02678571428571428,
+        "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:54.633Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:44.534Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -101001,56 +99556,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "49 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.7545454545454544,
+        "probability": 0.7522123893805309,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50",
-        "probability": 0.1636363636363636,
+        "probability": 0.16814159292035397,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51",
-        "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
+        "probability": 0.017699115044247787,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "53",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "54",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "55",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "56",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "57",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "58 or more",
-        "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+        "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:00:58.928Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:49.143Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -101064,56 +99619,56 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "37 or fewer",
-        "probability": 0.33,
+        "probability": 0.32786885245901637,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "38 or 39",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.1885245901639344,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "40 or 41",
-        "probability": 0.16,
+        "probability": 0.21311475409836064,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "42 or 43",
-        "probability": 0.29,
+        "probability": 0.08196721311475409,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "44 or 45",
-        "probability": 0.1,
+        "probability": 0.04918032786885245,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "46 or 47",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.040983606557377046,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "48 or 49",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.040983606557377046,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50 or 51",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.024590163934426226,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52 or 53",
-        "probability": 0.03,
+        "probability": 0.016393442622950817,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "54 or more",
-        "probability": 0,
+        "probability": 0.016393442622950817,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:01:04.467Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:53.896Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
@@ -101127,56 +99682,245 @@
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "50.1% or lower",
-        "probability": 0.2612612612612612,
+        "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50.2% to 50.4%",
-        "probability": 0.23423423423423423,
+        "probability": 0.297029702970297,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50.5% to 50.7%",
-        "probability": 0.15315315315315314,
+        "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "50.8% to 51.0%",
-        "probability": 0.13513513513513511,
+        "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51.1% to 51.3%",
-        "probability": 0.08108108108108107,
+        "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51.4% to 51.6%",
-        "probability": 0.06306306306306306,
+        "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "51.7% to 51.9%",
-        "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
+        "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52.0% to 52.2%",
-        "probability": 0.018018018018018018,
+        "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       },
       {
         "name": "52.3% or higher",
-        "probability": 0.018018018018018018,
+        "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "timestamp": "2021-08-05T15:01:08.749Z",
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:58:59.867Z",
     "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 3
     },
     "optionsstringforsearch": "50.1% or lower, 50.2% to 50.4%, 50.5% to 50.7%, 50.8% to 51.0%, 51.1% to 51.3%, 51.4% to 51.6%, 51.7% to 51.9%, 52.0% to 52.2%, 52.3% or higher"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "What will Biden's RCP job approval index be for Aug. 11?",
+    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7429/What-will-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-index-be-for-Aug-11",
+    "platform": "PredictIt",
+    "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number or range of President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval index for August 11, as rounded to the first decimal. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"President Biden Job Approval\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html, as displayed for August 11 at the End Date listed below. \nThe graph below the list of individual polls at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html displays the RCP Poll Average for President Biden's Job Approval for each day. For purposes of resolving this market, this graph will determine President Biden's average job approval index for August 11.\nAny number displayed on the RealClearPolitics graph at the End Date for any day other than August 11 is irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/12/2021 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "49.6% or lower",
+        "probability": 0.13084112149532712,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "49.7% to 49.9%",
+        "probability": 0.13084112149532712,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "50.0% to 50.2%",
+        "probability": 0.19626168224299065,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "50.3% to 50.5%",
+        "probability": 0.27102803738317754,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "50.6% to 50.8%",
+        "probability": 0.13084112149532712,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "50.9% to 51.1%",
+        "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "51.2% to 51.4%",
+        "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "51.5% to 51.7%",
+        "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "51.8% or higher",
+        "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:59:03.950Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "49.6% or lower, 49.7% to 49.9%, 50.0% to 50.2%, 50.3% to 50.5%, 50.6% to 50.8%, 50.9% to 51.1%, 51.2% to 51.4%, 51.5% to 51.7%, 51.8% or higher"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "How many votes in the Senate for the infrastructure deal by Aug. 13?",
+    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7430/How-many-votes-in-the-Senate-for-the-infrastructure-deal-by-Aug-13",
+    "platform": "PredictIt",
+    "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Senate who vote in favor of passage of a qualifying infrastructure bill by the End Date listed below. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying infrastructure bill will be any bill that seeks to implement, in whole or in part, the bipartisan infrastructure framework.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the motion via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the motion via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"78 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes, and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/13/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "59 or fewer",
+        "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "60 or 61",
+        "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "62 or 63",
+        "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "64 or 65",
+        "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "66 or 67",
+        "probability": 0.18811881188118812,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "68 or 69",
+        "probability": 0.16831683168316833,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "70 or 71",
+        "probability": 0.16831683168316833,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "72 or 73",
+        "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "74 or 75",
+        "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "76 or 77",
+        "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "78 or more",
+        "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:59:07.162Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "59 or fewer, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or 67, 68 or 69, 70 or 71, 72 or 73, 74 or 75, 76 or 77, 78 or more"
+  },
+  {
+    "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
+    "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
+    "platform": "PredictIt",
+    "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office the individual holds upon launch of this market on August 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+    "options": [
+      {
+        "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
+        "probability": 0.58,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
+        "probability": 0.2,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Daniel Ortega",
+        "probability": 0.06,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
+        "probability": 0.03,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Guillermo Lasso",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Pedro Castillo",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Iván Duque",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Alberto Fernández",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      },
+      {
+        "name": "Luis Arce",
+        "probability": 0.02,
+        "type": "PROBABILITY"
+      }
+    ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-08-07T14:59:13.239Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 3
+    },
+    "optionsstringforsearch": "Sebastián Piñera, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Guillermo Lasso, Pedro Castillo, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?",
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@@ -107932,7 +106704,7 @@
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@@ -107955,7 +106727,7 @@
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@@ -107978,7 +106750,7 @@
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@@ -108001,7 +106773,7 @@
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@@ -108024,7 +106796,7 @@
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@@ -108047,7 +106819,7 @@
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@@ -108070,7 +106842,7 @@
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@@ -108093,7 +106865,7 @@
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@@ -108116,7 +106888,7 @@
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@@ -108139,7 +106911,7 @@
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@@ -108162,7 +106934,7 @@
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diff --git a/node_modules/.package-lock.json b/node_modules/.package-lock.json
index 16f9e26..3acf998 100644
--- a/node_modules/.package-lock.json
+++ b/node_modules/.package-lock.json
@@ -4,6 +4,121 @@
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@@ -60,6 +175,27 @@
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+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/algoliasearch/-/algoliasearch-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-OLY0AWlPKGLbSaw14ivMB7BT5fPdp8VdzY4L8FtzZnqmLKsyes24cltGlf7/X96ACkYEcT390SReCDt/9SUIRg==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/cache-in-memory": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-account": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-analytics": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-personalization": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-console": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-browser-xhr": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-node-http": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
     "node_modules/axios": {
       "version": "0.21.1",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/axios/-/axios-0.21.1.tgz",
diff --git a/package-lock.json b/package-lock.json
index 6b049ad..1ab3ff1 100644
--- a/package-lock.json
+++ b/package-lock.json
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@
       "version": "0.3.0",
       "license": "MIT",
       "dependencies": {
+        "algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
         "axios": "^0.21.1",
         "fs": "^0.0.1-security",
         "https": "^1.0.0",
@@ -21,6 +22,121 @@
         "textversionjs": "^1.1.3"
       }
     },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage/-/cache-browser-local-storage-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-TD1N7zg5lb56/PLjjD4bBl2eccEvVHhC7yfgFu2r9k5tf+gvbGxEZ3NhRZVKu2MObUIcEy2VR4LVLxOQu45Hlg==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/cache-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/cache-common/-/cache-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-q13cPPUmtf8a2suBC4kySSr97EyulSXuxUkn7l1tZUCX/k1y5KNheMp8npBy8Kc8gPPmHpacxddRSfOncjiKFw=="
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/cache-in-memory": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/cache-in-memory/-/cache-in-memory-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-JhPajhOXAjUP+TZrZTh6KJpF5VKTKyWK2aR1cD8NtrcVHwfGS7fTyfXfVm5BqBqkD9U0gVvufUt/mVyI80aZww==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/client-account": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-account/-/client-account-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-S/IsJB4s+e1xYctdpW3nAbwrR2y3pjSo9X21fJGoiGeIpTRdvQG7nydgsLkhnhcgAdLnmqBapYyAqMGmlcyOkg==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/client-analytics": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-analytics/-/client-analytics-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-vlHTbBqJktRgclh3v7bPQLfZvFIqY4erNFIZA5C7nisCj9oLeTgzefoUrr+R90+I+XjfoLxnmoeigS1Z1yg1vw==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/client-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-common/-/client-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-uFyP2Z14jG2hsFRbAoavna6oJf4NTXaSDAZgouZUZlHlBp5elM38sjNeA5HR9/D9J/GjwaB1SgB7iUiIWYBB4w==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/client-personalization": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-personalization/-/client-personalization-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-NS7Nx8EJ/nduGXT8CFo5z7kLF0jnFehTP3eC+z+GOEESH3rrs7uR12IZHxv5QhQswZa9vl925zCOZDcDVoENCg==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/client-search": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-search/-/client-search-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-Zwnp2G94IrNFKWCG/k7epI5UswRkPvL9FCt7/slXe2bkjP2y/HA37gzRn+9tXoLVRwd7gBzrtOA4jFKIyjrtVw==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/logger-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/logger-common/-/logger-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-M6xi+qov2bkgg1H9e1Qtvq/E/eKsGcgz8RBbXNzqPIYoDGZNkv+b3b8YMo3dxd4Wd6M24HU1iqF3kmr1LaXndg=="
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/logger-console": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/logger-console/-/logger-console-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-vVgRI7b4PHjgBdRkv/cRz490twvkLoGdpC4VYzIouSrKj8SIVLRhey3qgXk7oQXi3xoxVAv6NrklHfpO8Bpx0w==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/requester-browser-xhr": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/requester-browser-xhr/-/requester-browser-xhr-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-4WIk1zreFbc1EF6+gsfBTQvwSNjWc20zJAAExRWql/Jq5yfVHmwOqi/CajA53/cXKFBqo80DAMRvOiwP+hOLYw==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/requester-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/requester-common/-/requester-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-PNfLHmg0Hujugs3rx55uz/ifv7b9HVdSFQDb2hj0O5xZaBEuQCNOXC6COrXR8+9VEfqp2swpg7zwgtqFxh+BtQ=="
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/requester-node-http": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/requester-node-http/-/requester-node-http-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-A9ZcGfEvgqf0luJApdNcIhsRh6MShn2zn2tbjwjGG1joF81w+HUY+BWuLZn56vGwAA9ZB9n00IoJJpxibbfofg==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/@algolia/transporter": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/transporter/-/transporter-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-n1lRyKDbrckbMEgm7QXtj3nEWUuzA3aKLzVQ43/F/RCFib15j4IwtmYhXR6OIBRSc7+T0Hm48S0J6F+HeYCQkw==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
     "node_modules/@sindresorhus/is": {
       "version": "2.1.1",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@sindresorhus/is/-/is-2.1.1.tgz",
@@ -77,6 +193,27 @@
         "@types/node": "*"
       }
     },
+    "node_modules/algoliasearch": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/algoliasearch/-/algoliasearch-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-OLY0AWlPKGLbSaw14ivMB7BT5fPdp8VdzY4L8FtzZnqmLKsyes24cltGlf7/X96ACkYEcT390SReCDt/9SUIRg==",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/cache-in-memory": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-account": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-analytics": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-personalization": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-console": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-browser-xhr": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-node-http": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
     "node_modules/axios": {
       "version": "0.21.1",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/axios/-/axios-0.21.1.tgz",
@@ -815,6 +952,121 @@
     }
   },
   "dependencies": {
+    "@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage/-/cache-browser-local-storage-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-TD1N7zg5lb56/PLjjD4bBl2eccEvVHhC7yfgFu2r9k5tf+gvbGxEZ3NhRZVKu2MObUIcEy2VR4LVLxOQu45Hlg==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/cache-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/cache-common/-/cache-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-q13cPPUmtf8a2suBC4kySSr97EyulSXuxUkn7l1tZUCX/k1y5KNheMp8npBy8Kc8gPPmHpacxddRSfOncjiKFw=="
+    },
+    "@algolia/cache-in-memory": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/cache-in-memory/-/cache-in-memory-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-JhPajhOXAjUP+TZrZTh6KJpF5VKTKyWK2aR1cD8NtrcVHwfGS7fTyfXfVm5BqBqkD9U0gVvufUt/mVyI80aZww==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/client-account": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-account/-/client-account-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-S/IsJB4s+e1xYctdpW3nAbwrR2y3pjSo9X21fJGoiGeIpTRdvQG7nydgsLkhnhcgAdLnmqBapYyAqMGmlcyOkg==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/client-analytics": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-analytics/-/client-analytics-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-vlHTbBqJktRgclh3v7bPQLfZvFIqY4erNFIZA5C7nisCj9oLeTgzefoUrr+R90+I+XjfoLxnmoeigS1Z1yg1vw==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/client-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-common/-/client-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-uFyP2Z14jG2hsFRbAoavna6oJf4NTXaSDAZgouZUZlHlBp5elM38sjNeA5HR9/D9J/GjwaB1SgB7iUiIWYBB4w==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/client-personalization": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-personalization/-/client-personalization-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-NS7Nx8EJ/nduGXT8CFo5z7kLF0jnFehTP3eC+z+GOEESH3rrs7uR12IZHxv5QhQswZa9vl925zCOZDcDVoENCg==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/client-search": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/client-search/-/client-search-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-Zwnp2G94IrNFKWCG/k7epI5UswRkPvL9FCt7/slXe2bkjP2y/HA37gzRn+9tXoLVRwd7gBzrtOA4jFKIyjrtVw==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/logger-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/logger-common/-/logger-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-M6xi+qov2bkgg1H9e1Qtvq/E/eKsGcgz8RBbXNzqPIYoDGZNkv+b3b8YMo3dxd4Wd6M24HU1iqF3kmr1LaXndg=="
+    },
+    "@algolia/logger-console": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/logger-console/-/logger-console-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-vVgRI7b4PHjgBdRkv/cRz490twvkLoGdpC4VYzIouSrKj8SIVLRhey3qgXk7oQXi3xoxVAv6NrklHfpO8Bpx0w==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/requester-browser-xhr": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/requester-browser-xhr/-/requester-browser-xhr-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-4WIk1zreFbc1EF6+gsfBTQvwSNjWc20zJAAExRWql/Jq5yfVHmwOqi/CajA53/cXKFBqo80DAMRvOiwP+hOLYw==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/requester-common": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/requester-common/-/requester-common-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-PNfLHmg0Hujugs3rx55uz/ifv7b9HVdSFQDb2hj0O5xZaBEuQCNOXC6COrXR8+9VEfqp2swpg7zwgtqFxh+BtQ=="
+    },
+    "@algolia/requester-node-http": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/requester-node-http/-/requester-node-http-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-A9ZcGfEvgqf0luJApdNcIhsRh6MShn2zn2tbjwjGG1joF81w+HUY+BWuLZn56vGwAA9ZB9n00IoJJpxibbfofg==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
+    "@algolia/transporter": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@algolia/transporter/-/transporter-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-n1lRyKDbrckbMEgm7QXtj3nEWUuzA3aKLzVQ43/F/RCFib15j4IwtmYhXR6OIBRSc7+T0Hm48S0J6F+HeYCQkw==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
     "@sindresorhus/is": {
       "version": "2.1.1",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@sindresorhus/is/-/is-2.1.1.tgz",
@@ -865,6 +1117,27 @@
         "@types/node": "*"
       }
     },
+    "algoliasearch": {
+      "version": "4.10.3",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/algoliasearch/-/algoliasearch-4.10.3.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-OLY0AWlPKGLbSaw14ivMB7BT5fPdp8VdzY4L8FtzZnqmLKsyes24cltGlf7/X96ACkYEcT390SReCDt/9SUIRg==",
+      "requires": {
+        "@algolia/cache-browser-local-storage": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/cache-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/cache-in-memory": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-account": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-analytics": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-personalization": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/client-search": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/logger-console": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-browser-xhr": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-common": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/requester-node-http": "4.10.3",
+        "@algolia/transporter": "4.10.3"
+      }
+    },
     "axios": {
       "version": "0.21.1",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/axios/-/axios-0.21.1.tgz",
diff --git a/package.json b/package.json
index bd90ab0..4f8141c 100644
--- a/package.json
+++ b/package.json
@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@
   },
   "homepage": "https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts#readme",
   "dependencies": {
+    "algoliasearch": "^4.10.3",
     "axios": "^0.21.1",
     "fs": "^0.0.1-security",
     "https": "^1.0.0",
diff --git a/src/index.js b/src/index.js
index 00cdb3e..4ad8740 100644
--- a/src/index.js
+++ b/src/index.js
@@ -24,19 +24,21 @@ import {smarkets} from "./platforms/smarkets-fetch.js"
 import {williamhill} from "./platforms/williamhill-fetch.js"
 import {mergeEverything} from "./utils/mergeEverything.js"
 import {updateHistory} from "./utils/history/updateHistory.js"
+import {rebuildAlgoliaDatabase} from "./utils/algolia.js"
 import {rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData} from "./utils/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js"
 import {doEverything, tryCatchTryAgain} from "./utils/doEverything.js"
 
 /* Support functions */
-let functions = [astralcodexten, betfair, coupcast, csetforetell, elicit, /* estimize, */ fantasyscotus,  foretold, goodjudgment, goodjudgmentopen, hypermind, kalshi, ladbrokes, metaculus, omen, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, williamhill, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData, doEverything]
+let functions = [astralcodexten, betfair, coupcast, csetforetell, elicit, /* estimize, */ fantasyscotus,  foretold, goodjudgment, goodjudgmentopen, hypermind, kalshi, ladbrokes, metaculus, omen, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, williamhill, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildAlgoliaDatabase, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData, doEverything]
 let functionNames =  functions.map(fun => fun.name)
 
 let whattodoMessage = functionNames
-    .slice(0,functionNames.length-4)
+    .slice(0,functionNames.length-5)
     .map((functionName,i) => `[${i}]: Download predictions from ${functionName}`)
     .join('\n') +
-  `\n[${functionNames.length-4}]: Merge jsons them into one big json (and push it to mongodb database)` + 
-  `\n[${functionNames.length-3}]: Update history` + 
+  `\n[${functionNames.length-5}]: Merge jsons them into one big json (and push it to mongodb database)` + 
+  `\n[${functionNames.length-4}]: Update history` + 
+  `\n[${functionNames.length-3}]: Rebuild algolia database ("index")` + 
   `\n[${functionNames.length-2}]: Rebuild netlify site with new data` + 
   // `\n[${functionNames.length-1}]: Add to history` + 
   `\n[${functionNames.length-1}]: All of the above` + 
diff --git a/src/input/metaforecast-algolia-configuration.json b/src/input/metaforecast-algolia-configuration.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ecb5b35
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/input/metaforecast-algolia-configuration.json
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+{
+  "settings": {
+    "minWordSizefor1Typo": 4,
+    "minWordSizefor2Typos": 8,
+    "hitsPerPage": 300,
+    "maxValuesPerFacet": 100,
+    "attributesToIndex": [
+      "unordered(title)",
+      "unordered(description)",
+      "unordered(optionsstringforsearch)",
+      "unordered(platform)"
+    ],
+    "numericAttributesToIndex": null,
+    "attributesToRetrieve": null,
+    "ignorePlurals": true,
+    "removeStopWords": true,
+    "unretrievableAttributes": null,
+    "optionalWords": null,
+    "queryLanguages": [
+      "en"
+    ],
+    "attributesForFaceting": null,
+    "attributesToSnippet": null,
+    "attributesToHighlight": [],
+    "paginationLimitedTo": 1000,
+    "attributeForDistinct": null,
+    "exactOnSingleWordQuery": "attribute",
+    "ranking": [
+      "typo",
+      "geo",
+      "words",
+      "filters",
+      "proximity",
+      "attribute",
+      "exact",
+      "custom"
+    ],
+    "customRanking": [
+      "desc(title)",
+      "desc(description)",
+      "desc(optionsstringforsearch)",
+      "desc(platform)"
+    ],
+    "separatorsToIndex": "",
+    "removeWordsIfNoResults": "allOptional",
+    "queryType": "prefixLast",
+    "highlightPreTag": "<em>",
+    "highlightPostTag": "</em>",
+    "snippetEllipsisText": "",
+    "alternativesAsExact": [
+      "ignorePlurals",
+      "singleWordSynonym",
+      "multiWordsSynonym"
+    ],
+    "indexLanguages": [
+      "en"
+    ]
+  },
+  "rules": [],
+  "synonyms": []
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js b/src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js
index dc7e008..c2b62b8 100644
--- a/src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/astralcodexten-fetch.js
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ export async function astralcodexten(){
             "type": "PROBABILITY"
           }
         ]
-      }
+      } 
       let result = {
           "title": question.name.split(". ")[1],
           "url": `https://www.foretold.io/c/${community}/m/${question.id}`,
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ export async function astralcodexten(){
           "options": options,
           "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
           "qualityindicators": {
-            "numforecasts": (question.measurementCount +1) / 2,
+            "numforecasts": Number((question.measurementCount +1) / 2),
             "stars": calculateStars("AstralCodexTen", ({  }))
             }
           /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
diff --git a/src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js b/src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js
index 4833ce3..673077b 100644
--- a/src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/coupcast-fetch.js
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import {calculateStars} from "../utils/stars.js"
 import {upsert} from "../utils/mongo-wrapper.js"
 
 /* Definitions */
-let coupCastEndpoint = "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/sites/all/themes/stability/stability_sub/data/dashboard_2021_code_05.csv"
+let coupCastEndpoint = "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/sites/all/themes/stability/stability_sub/data/dashboard_2021_code_06.csv"
 var datenow = new Date();
 var currentmonth = datenow.getMonth() + 1; 
 
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ async function processArray(countryArray) {
         "title": `Will there be a coup in ${country.country_name} in the next month (as of ${country.month}/${country.year})?`,
         "url": url,
         "platform": "CoupCast",
-        "description": `. The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${country.leader_name}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(1)} years.  ${country.country_name} has a ${(country.regime_type).toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${country.regime_years} years`,
+        "description": `The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${country.leader_name}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(1)} years.  ${country.country_name} has a ${(country.regime_type).toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${country.regime_years} years.`,
         "options": [
           {
             "name": "Yes",
@@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ async function processArray(countryArray) {
         "title": `Will there be a coup in ${country.country_name} in the next year (as of ${country.month}/${country.year})?`,
         "url": url,
         "platform": "CoupCast",
-        "description": `. The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${country.leader_name}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(1)} years. ${country.country_name} has a ${(country.regime_type).toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${country.regime_years} years`,
+        "description": `The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${country.leader_name}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(1)} years. ${country.country_name} has a ${(country.regime_type).toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${country.regime_years} years`,
         "options": [
           {
             "name": "Yes",
diff --git a/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch-old.js b/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch-old.js
deleted file mode 100644
index eae54ba..0000000
--- a/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch-old.js
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,201 +0,0 @@
-/* Imports */
-import axios from "axios"
-import {getCookie, applyIfCookieExists} from "../utils/getCookies.js"
-import {Tabletojson} from "tabletojson"
-import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js"
-import {calculateStars} from "../utils/stars.js"
-import {upsert} from "../utils/mongo-wrapper.js"
-
-/* Definitions */
-let htmlEndPoint = 'https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions?page='
-String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) { return this.split(search).join(replace); }
-
-/* Support functions */
-
-async function fetchPage(page, cookie){
-  if(page==1){
-    cookie=cookie.split(";")[0] // Interesting that it otherwise doesn't work :(
-  }
-  let response  = await axios({
-    url: htmlEndPoint+page,
-    method: 'GET',
-    headers: ({ 
-    'Content-Type': 'text/html',
-    'Cookie': cookie
-    }),
-  })
-  .then(res => res.data)
-  // console.log(response)
-  return response
-}
-
-async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
-  let response  = await axios({
-    url: questionUrl+"/stats",
-    method: 'GET',
-    headers: ({ 
-    'Content-Type': 'text/html',
-    'Cookie': cookie,
-    'Referer': questionUrl,
-    }),
-  })
-  .then(res => res.data)
-  //console.log(response)
-  
-  // Is binary?
-  let isbinary = response.includes("binary?&quot;:true")
-  // console.log(`is binary? ${isbinary}`)
-  let options = []
-  if(isbinary){
-    // Crowd percentage
-    let htmlElements = response.split("\n")
-    // console.log(htmlElements)
-    let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("<h3>"))[0]
-    let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0]
-    let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", ""))/100
-    options.push(({
-      name: "Yes",
-      probability: probability,
-      type: "PROBABILITY"
-    }), ({
-      name: "No",
-      probability: +(1-probability).toFixed(2), // avoids floating point shenanigans
-      type: "PROBABILITY"
-    }))
-  }else{
-    let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[3] // Previously [1], but they added a new table.
-    // console.log(optionsBody)
-    let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + optionsBody + "table>"
-    let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement)
-    let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0]
-    options = firstTable.map(element => ({
-      name: element['0'],
-      probability: Number(element['1'].replace("%",""))/100,
-      type: "PROBABILITY"
-    }))
-  }
-  // Description  
-  let descriptionraw = response.split(`<meta name="description" content="`)[1]
-  let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`">`)[0]
-  let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replace(">", "")
-  let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", ``)
-  // console.log(descriptionprocessed3)
-  let descriptionprocessed4=descriptionprocessed3.replaceAll("\r\n\r\n", "\n")
-  let descriptionprocessed5=  descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n")  
-  let descriptionprocessed6=descriptionprocessed5.replaceAll("&quot;", `"`)
-  let descriptionprocessed7=descriptionprocessed6.replaceAll("&#39;", "'")
-  let descriptionprocessed8=toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed7)
-  let description = descriptionprocessed8
-
-  // Number of forecasts
-  let numforecasts = response.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1].split(",")[0]
-  // console.log(numforecasts)
-
-  // Number of predictors
-  let numforecasters = response.split("predictors_count&quot;:")[1].split(",")[0]
-  // console.log(numpredictors)
-  
-  let result = {
-    "description": description, 
-    "options": options,
-    "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
-    "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": numforecasts,
-      "num_forecasters": numforecasters,
-      "stars": calculateStars("CSET-foretell", {numforecasts})
-    }
-  }
-  
-  return result
-}
-
-function isEnd(html){
-  return html.includes("No questions match your filter")
-}
-
-function sleep(ms) {
-  return new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
-}
-
-/* Body */
-
-async function csetforetell_inner(cookie){
-  let i=0
-  let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie)
-  let results = []
-  let init = Date.now()
-  // console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.")
-  while(!isEnd(response)){
-    
-    let htmlLines = response.split("\n")
-    let h4elements = htmlLines.filter(str => str.includes("<h5><a href=") || str.includes("<h4><a href=")) 
-
-    if(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on"){
-      console.log(response)
-    }
-
-    //console.log("")
-    //console.log("")
-    //console.log(h4elements)
-    
-    for(let h4element of h4elements){
-      let h4elementSplit = h4element.split('"><span>')
-      let url = h4elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1]
-      //console.log(url)
-      let title = h4elementSplit[1].replace('</span></a></h4>', "").replace('</span></a></h5>', "")
-      await sleep(1000 + Math.random()*1000) // don't be as noticeable
-      try{
-        let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie)
-        if(moreinfo.isbinary){
-          if(!moreinfo.crowdpercentage){ // then request again.
-            moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie)
-          }
-        }
-        let question = ({
-            "title": title,
-            "url": url,
-            "platform": "CSET-foretell",
-            ...moreinfo
-          })
-          if(i % 30 == 0){
-            console.log(`Page #${i}`)
-            console.log(question)
-          }
-          results.push(question)
-          if(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on"){
-            console.log(question)
-          }
-
-      } catch(error){
-        console.log(error)
-        console.log(`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`)
-      }
-      i=i+1
-    }
-    
-    // console.log("Sleeping for ~5secs so as to not be as noticeable to the cset-foretell servers")
-    await sleep(5000 + Math.random()*1000) // don't be as noticeable
-    
-    try{
-      response = await fetchPage(i, cookie)
-    }catch(error){
-      console.log(error)
-      console.log(`The program encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json. It is possible that this page wasn't actually a prediction question pages`)
-    }
-  }
-  // let string = JSON.stringify(results,null,  2)
-  // fs.writeFileSync('./data/csetforetell-questions.json', string);
-  // console.log(results)
-  await upsert(results, "csetforetell-questions")
-  
-  
-  let end = Date.now()
-  let difference = end-init
-  console.log(`Took ${difference/1000} seconds, or ${difference/(1000*60)} minutes.`)
-}
-
-
-export async function csetforetell(){
-  let cookie = process.env.CSETFORETELL_COOKIE || getCookie("csetforetell") 
-  await applyIfCookieExists(cookie, csetforetell_inner)
-}
diff --git a/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js b/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js
index 8c49e86..d8d5d3a 100644
--- a/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/csetforetell-fetch.js
@@ -122,8 +122,8 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
     "options": options,
     "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": numforecasts,
-      "num_forecasters": numforecasters,
+      "numforecasts":Number(numforecasts),
+      "numforecasters":Number(numforecasters),
       "stars": calculateStars("CSET-foretell", {numforecasts})
     }
   }
diff --git a/src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js b/src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js
index 855f47a..59cb4bf 100644
--- a/src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/elicit-fetch.js
@@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ async function processArray(arrayQuestions) {
         ],
         "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
         "qualityindicators": {
-          "numforecasts": numforecasts,
-          "numforecasters": numforecasters,
+          "numforecasts": Number(numforecasts),
+          "numforecasters": Number(numforecasters),
           "stars": calculateStars("Elicit", ({}))
         }
       })
diff --git a/src/platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js b/src/platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js
index a18a61a..75e0bc6 100644
--- a/src/platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/fantasyscotus-fetch.js
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ async function processData(data) {
               ],
         "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
         "qualityindicators": {
-          "numforecasts": predictionData.numForecasts,
+          "numforecasts": Number(predictionData.numForecasts),
           "stars": calculateStars("FantasySCOTUS", ({}))
         }
       })
diff --git a/src/platforms/foretold-fetch.js b/src/platforms/foretold-fetch.js
index 1ecd312..4fea6c6 100644
--- a/src/platforms/foretold-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/foretold-fetch.js
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ export async function foretold(){
           "options": options,
           "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
           "qualityindicators": {
-            "numforecasts": question.measurementCount / 2,
+            "numforecasts": Math.floor(Number(question.measurementCount) / 2),
             "stars": calculateStars("Foretold", ({  }))
             }
           /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
diff --git a/src/platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js b/src/platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
index e0a7b09..2533eff 100644
--- a/src/platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
@@ -99,8 +99,8 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
     "options": options,
     "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
     "qualityindicators": {
-      "numforecasts": numforecasts,
-      "numforecasters": numforecasters,
+      "numforecasts": Number(numforecasts),
+      "numforecasters": Number(numforecasters),
       "stars": calculateStars("Good Judgment Open", ({ numforecasts, minProbability, maxProbability }))
     }
   }
diff --git a/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js b/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js
index 929a4be..aed2323 100644
--- a/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/kalshi-fetch.js
@@ -22,6 +22,9 @@ async function fetchAllMarkets() { // for info which the polymarket graphql API
 
 
 async function processMarkets(markets) {
+  let dateNow = new Date().toISOString()
+  // console.log(markets)
+  markets = markets.filter(market => market.close_date > dateNow)
   let results = await markets.map(market => {
     let probability = market.last_price/100
     let options = [
@@ -54,6 +57,12 @@ async function processMarkets(markets) {
     })
     return result
   })
+  //console.log(results.length)
+  console.log(results.map(result => result.title))
+  console.log(results.map(result => result.title).length)
+  console.log([...new Set(results.map(result => result.title))])
+  console.log([...new Set(results.map(result => result.title))].length)
+  // console.log([...new Set(results.map(result => result.title))].length)
   return results //resultsProcessed
 }
 
diff --git a/src/platforms/metaculus-fetch.js b/src/platforms/metaculus-fetch.js
index 28004cd..839b296 100644
--- a/src/platforms/metaculus-fetch.js
+++ b/src/platforms/metaculus-fetch.js
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ export async function metaculus() {
           "options": options,
           "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
           "qualityindicators": {
-            "numforecasts": result.number_of_predictions,
+            "numforecasts": Number(result.number_of_predictions),
             "resolution_data": {
               "publish_time": result.publish_time,
               "resolution": result.resolution,
diff --git a/src/utils/algolia.js b/src/utils/algolia.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f932d6c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/utils/algolia.js
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+import algoliasearch from 'algoliasearch';
+import fs from "fs"
+
+import { mongoReadWithReadCredentials } from "./mongo-wrapper.js"
+
+const client = algoliasearch('96UD3NTQ7L', process.env.ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY); // delete this when committing
+const index = client.initIndex('metaforecast');
+
+export async function rebuildAlgoliaDatabase(){
+  let records = await mongoReadWithReadCredentials("metaforecasts")
+  // let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
+  // fs.writeFileSync('metaforecasts.json', string);
+  records = records.map(record => ({...record, has_numforecasts: record.has_numforecasts ? true : false}) )
+  // this is necessary to filter by missing attributes https://www.algolia.com/doc/guides/managing-results/refine-results/filtering/how-to/filter-by-null-or-missing-attributes/
+
+  await index.clearObjects()
+  index.saveObjects(records, { autoGenerateObjectIDIfNotExist: true }).then(() => 
+    console.log("algolia search: done")
+  ).catch(error => {
+    console.log("algolia search: error", error)
+  })
+}
+// main()
diff --git a/src/utils/doEverything.js b/src/utils/doEverything.js
index 87e9216..2b34cd5 100644
--- a/src/utils/doEverything.js
+++ b/src/utils/doEverything.js
@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import {smarkets} from "../platforms/smarkets-fetch.js"
 import {williamhill} from "../platforms/williamhill-fetch.js"
 import {mergeEverything} from "./mergeEverything.js"
 import {updateHistory} from "./history/updateHistory.js"
+import {rebuildAlgoliaDatabase} from "./algolia.js"
 import {rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData} from "./rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js"
 
 /* Do everything */
@@ -39,7 +40,7 @@ export async function tryCatchTryAgain (fun) {
     }
 }
 export async function doEverything(){
-    let functions = [betfair, coupcast, csetforetell, elicit, /* estimize, */ fantasyscotus,  foretold, /* goodjudgment, */ goodjudgmentopen, hypermind, ladbrokes, kalshi, metaculus, omen, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, williamhill, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData] 
+    let functions = [betfair, coupcast, csetforetell, elicit, /* estimize, */ fantasyscotus,  foretold, /* goodjudgment, */ goodjudgmentopen, hypermind, ladbrokes, kalshi, metaculus, omen, polymarket, predictit, rootclaim, smarkets, williamhill, mergeEverything, updateHistory, rebuildAlgoliaDatabase, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData] 
     // Removed Good Judgment from the fetcher, doing it using cron instead because cloudflare blocks the utility on heroku.
 
     console.log("")
diff --git a/src/utils/manualDownloadFromMongo.js b/src/utils/manualDownloadFromMongo.js
index 026509b..c1129f4 100644
--- a/src/utils/manualDownloadFromMongo.js
+++ b/src/utils/manualDownloadFromMongo.js
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ let main = async () => {
   let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
   fs.writeFileSync('metaforecasts.json', string);
 }
-// main()
+main()
 
 let extractQualityIndicators = async () => {
   let json = await mongoReadWithReadCredentials("metaforecasts")
@@ -18,4 +18,4 @@ let extractQualityIndicators = async () => {
   // let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
   // fs.writeFileSync('metaforecasts.json', string);
 }
-extractQualityIndicators()
\ No newline at end of file
+// extractQualityIndicators()
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/temp.txt b/temp.txt
deleted file mode 100644
index 5f55bef..0000000
--- a/temp.txt
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,38251 +0,0 @@
-[
-    {
-        "marketId": "1.129176457",
-        "marketName": "Next Country to Hold an EU In/Out Referendum",
-        "description": {
-            "persistenceEnabled": false,
-            "bspMarket": false,
-            "marketTime": "2017-01-17T00:00:00.000Z",
-            "suspendTime": "2017-01-17T00:00:00.000Z",
-            "bettingType": "ODDS",
-            "turnInPlayEnabled": false,
-            "marketType": "NONSPORT",
-            "regulator": "GIBRALTAR REGULATOR",
-            "marketBaseRate": 2,
-            "discountAllowed": false,
-            "wallet": "UK wallet",
-            "rules": "<br><b>MARKET INFORMATION</b><br><br>For further information please see <a href=http://content.betfair.com/aboutus/content.asp?sWhichKey=Rules%20and%20Regulations#undefined.do style=color:0163ad; text-decoration: underline; target=_blank>Rules & Regs</a>.<br><br>Which EU country will be the next to hold an In/Out referendum on its European Union membership? <br><br> This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day that the In/Out referendum is officially held in an EU country. If no referendum takes place before 2022 the selection 'No Refefrendum Before 2022' will be settled as the winner.<br><br> Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.",
-            "rulesHasDate": true,
-            "priceLadderDescription": {
-                "type": "CLASSIC"
-            }
-        },
-        "totalMatched": 70456.41,
-        "runners": [
-            {
-                "selectionId": 12384633,
-                "handicap": 0,
-                "status": "ACTIVE",
-                "lastPriceTraded": 1.03,
-                "totalMatched": 59892.8,
-                "ex": {
-                    "availableToBack": [
-                        {
-                            "price": 1.02,
-                            "size": 1175.2
-                        },
-                        {
-                            "price": 1.01,
-                            "size": 745.05
-                        }
-                    ],
-                    "availableToLay": [
-                        {
-                            "price": 1.04,
-                            "size": 234.46
-                        },
-                        {
-                            "price": 1.05,
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-Got cookie: mongo...
-Connected correctly to server
-Updating document betfair-questions in collection metaforecastCollection in database metaforecastDatabase with approximate size 0.1 MB
-Sample: 
-[
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-        "platform": "Betfair",
-        "description": "This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day that the In/Out referendum is officially held in an EU country. If no referendum takes place before 2022 the selection 'No Refefrendum Before 2022' will be settled as the winner.  Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.",
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