Vyacheslav Matyukhin
GitHub
commit
e26f5aa9c6
39
.gitignore
vendored
39
.gitignore
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@ -1,14 +1,45 @@
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## Node modules
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# Node modules
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node_modules/
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node_modules/*
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## Security
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# Security
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**/betfaircertificates/
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**/secrets.json
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## Personal notes
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# Personal notes
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notes/*
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## Build artifacts
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# Build artifacts
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done.txt
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*.swp
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# next.js
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/.next/
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/out/
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# misc
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.DS_Store
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*.pem
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# debug
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npm-debug.log*
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yarn-debug.log*
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yarn-error.log*
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# local env files
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.env.local
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.env.development.local
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.env.test.local
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.env.production.local
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# vercel
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.vercel
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# yarn vs npm conflict
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package-lock.json ## use yarn.lock instead
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# Local Netlify folder
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.netlify
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/.env
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/.env.production
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2
Procfile
2
Procfile
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@ -1 +1 @@
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// worker: node src/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js
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// worker: node src/backend/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js
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68
README.md
68
README.md
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@ -1,68 +1,70 @@
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## What this is
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This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms.
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https://metaforecast.org is a search engine for probabilities from various prediction markes and forecasting platforms (try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors").
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These forecasts are then used to power a search engine for probabilities, which can be found [here](https://metaforecast.org/) (try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors") (source code [here](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast-website-nextjs)). I also provide a datatabase, which can be accessed with a script similar to [this one](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts/blob/master/src/utils/manualDownloadFromMongo.js).
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This repository includes a source code for the website, as well as a set of libraries that fetches probabilities/forecasts.
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We also provide a public database, which can be accessed with a script similar to [this one](./src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js).
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I also created a search engine using Elicit's IDE, which uses GPT-3 to deliver vastly superior semantic search (as opposed to fuzzy word matching). If you have access to the Elicit IDE, you can use the action "Search Metaforecast database". However, I'm not currently updating it regularly.
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[](https://metaforecast.org)
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## How to run
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### 1. Download this repository
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``git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts``
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```
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$ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast
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$ cd metaforecasts
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$ npm install
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```
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### 2. Enter your own process.env variables
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The following variables are currently needed to run the `master` branch:
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- `ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY`, a string of 32 alphanumeric characters, like `6ofolyptm956j9uuev3q4v81vjbqrkp2` (not an actual key)
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- `INFER_COOKIE`
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- `DEBUG_MODE`, usually `off`, which controls log verbosity.
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- `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES`, of the form `postgres://username:password@domain.com:port/configvars`
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- `GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE`
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- `GOOGLE_API_KEY`, necessary to fetch Peter Wildeford's predictions.
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- `MONGODB_URL`, a string in the format `"mongodb+srv://<username>:<password>@<mongodburl>/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true"` (no longer really needed)
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- `SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT`
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### 2. Set up a database and environment variables
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They can either be stored as process variables (e.g., something that can be accessed as `process.env.<variable name>`), or as text in `src/input/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/input/privatekeys_example.json`.
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- Some of these are just session cookies, necessary to query INFER (previously CSET-foretell), Good Judgment Open and Hypermind (Hypermind iis now deprecated). You can get these cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction, or browsing questions).
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- Others interface with services, e.g., to access the MongoDB database I'm using to save data and history, or to renew the algolia database. You can get these keys by creating an account with those services.
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You'll need a PostgreSQL instance, either local (see https://www.postgresql.org/download/) or in the cloud (for example, you can spin one up on https://www.digitalocean.com/products/managed-databases-postgresql or https://supabase.com/).
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Note that not all of these cookies are needed to use all parts of the source code. For instance, to download Polymarket data, one could just interface with the polymarket code. In particular, the code in this repository contains code to with the mongo database using read permissions, which are freely available.
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Environment can be set up with an `.env` file. You'll need to configure at least `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES` for the fetching to work, and `NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL` for the frontend.
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Overall, the services which we use are:
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- Algolia for search
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- Netlify for frontend deployment
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- Heroku and DigitalOcean for backend deployment
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- Postgres and Mongo for databases
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See [./docs/configuration.md](./docs/configuration.md) for details.
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### 3. Actually run
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```
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$ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts
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$ cd metaforecasts
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$ npm install
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$ npm run start
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```
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`npm run cli` starts a local CLI which presents the user with choices; if you would like to skip each step, use the option number instead, e.g., `npm run start 14`.
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`npm run start` presents the user with choices; if you would like to skip each step, use the option number instead, e.g., `npm run start 14`
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`npm run next-dev` starts a Next.js dev server with the website on `http://localhost:3000`.
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### 4. Example: download the metaforecasts database
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```
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$ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts
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$ git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast
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$ cd metaforecasts
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$ npm install
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$ node src/utils/manualDownload.js
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$ node src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js
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```
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## Code layout
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- frontend code is in [src/pages/](./src/pages/), [src/web/](./src/web/) and in a few other places which are required by Next.js (e.g. root-level configs in postcss.config.js and tailwind.config.js)
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- various backend code is in [src/backend/](./src/backend/)
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- fetching libraries for various platforms is in [src/backend/platforms/](./src/backend/platforms/)
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- rudimentary documentation is in [docs/](./docs)
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## What are "stars" and how are they computed
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Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars to assign [here](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts/blob/master/src/stars.js)
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Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars to assign [here](./src/backend/utils/stars.js).
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With regards the quality, I am most uncertain about Smarkets, Hypermind, Ladbrokes and WilliamHill, as I haven't used them as much. Also note that, whatever other redeeming features they might have, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
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## Tech stack
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Overall, the services which we use are:
|
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- Algolia for search
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- Netlify for website deployment
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- DigitalOcean for background jobs, e.g. fetching new forecasts
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- Postgres on DigitalOcean and Mongo for databases
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## Various notes
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- Commits follow [conventional commits](https://www.conventionalcommits.org/en/v1.0.0/#summary)
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54791
data/frontpage.json
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data/frontpage.json
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[]
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@ -1,900 +0,0 @@
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[
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{
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"title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?",
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"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021",
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"platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n",
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"options": [
|
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{
|
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"name": "Yes",
|
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"probability": 0.05,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
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},
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{
|
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"name": "No",
|
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"probability": 0.95,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
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}
|
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],
|
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:14.639Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
|
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"numforecasts": "85",
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"numforecasters": "73",
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
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"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021",
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"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
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"description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n",
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"options": [
|
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{
|
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"name": "Yes",
|
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"probability": 0.2,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
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{
|
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"name": "No",
|
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"probability": 0.8,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
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],
|
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:17.431Z",
|
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"qualityindicators": {
|
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"numforecasts": "52",
|
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"numforecasters": "46",
|
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"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
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},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work",
|
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"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
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"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
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"options": [
|
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{
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"name": "Less than 5.5%",
|
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"probability": 0.11320000000000001,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
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},
|
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{
|
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"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
|
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"probability": 0.1975,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
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"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
|
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"probability": 0.2779,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
|
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"probability": 0.1925,
|
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
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},
|
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{
|
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"name": "More than 12%",
|
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"probability": 0.2189,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:20.424Z",
|
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"qualityindicators": {
|
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"numforecasts": "97",
|
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"numforecasters": "82",
|
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"stars": 2
|
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}
|
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},
|
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{
|
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"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
|
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"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.71,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.29,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:23.231Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "26",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "23",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position. Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.53,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.47,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:25.848Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "23",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "19",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.82,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.18,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:28.960Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "20",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "18",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 7,500",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0418,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1286,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3054,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
|
||||
"probability": 0.30820000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 13,500",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2161,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:31.766Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "49",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "40",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 70,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1252,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.33140000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3232,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.16579999999999998,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 130,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.054400000000000004,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:34.995Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "89",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "73",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0729,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.16760000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5379999999999999,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2029,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $775 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.018600000000000002,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:38.073Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "36",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "30",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.050199999999999995,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.133,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.245,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.31420000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $680 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2576,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:49:59.269Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "84",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "72",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.19,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.81,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:02.644Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "144",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "109",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.89,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.11,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:04.965Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "195",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "135",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than $40 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0528,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2522,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.4056,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.21719999999999998,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $100 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0722,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:08.571Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "57",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "46",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than $13 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0332,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1223,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.42450000000000004,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.32030000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $25 billion",
|
||||
"probability": 0.09970000000000001,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:11.711Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "59",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "45",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than -0.25",
|
||||
"probability": 0.19329999999999997,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3189,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
|
||||
"probability": 0.29960000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1467,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 0.5",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0414,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:15.073Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "150",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "111",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than $200 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0506,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.19329999999999997,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.35350000000000004,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.254,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $650 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.14859999999999998,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:17.888Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "115",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "92",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than $30 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0492,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3036,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3403,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2051,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than $150 million",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1018,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:20.697Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "144",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "114",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 26,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.031,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0981,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2158,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3145,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 32,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3406,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:23.822Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "73",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "45",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 800",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1282,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.4506,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2904,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1013,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 100,000",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0296,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:27.167Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "157",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "103",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 0.45%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0484,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1732,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2768,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2242,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 1.2%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2774,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:37.154Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "67",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "55",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.43,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.57,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:40.350Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "153",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "90",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 20%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.08800000000000001,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1698,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3705,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25780000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 35%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1139,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:43.474Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "75",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "59",
|
||||
"stars": 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.56,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.44,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:46.450Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "365",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "198",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0223,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0738,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.21559999999999999,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6883,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:49.230Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "249",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "137",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 59%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.12369999999999999,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1791,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2658,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2939,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 80%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1376,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:52.528Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "239",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "169",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.74,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.26,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:55.172Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "201",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "133",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.067,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1356,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2113,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2891,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 6%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.29710000000000003,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:58.224Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "222",
|
||||
"numforecasters": "140",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
|
|
@ -1,353 +0,0 @@
|
|||
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
|
||||
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",352,143,1
|
||||
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8205128205128206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1794871794871794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",234,126,1
|
||||
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3674375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6325625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",160,104,1
|
||||
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,96,1
|
||||
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",114,92,1
|
||||
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,91,1
|
||||
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,87,1
|
||||
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",119,77,1
|
||||
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,77,1
|
||||
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",110,77,1
|
||||
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",100,75,1
|
||||
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,74,1
|
||||
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",97,73,1
|
||||
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",112,71,1
|
||||
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,70,1
|
||||
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,69,1
|
||||
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,68,1
|
||||
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,67,1
|
||||
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,66,1
|
||||
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,66,1
|
||||
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,63,1
|
||||
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,63,1
|
||||
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,62,1
|
||||
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,61,1
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,57,1
|
||||
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,54,1
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",66,52,1
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,52,1
|
||||
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,45,1
|
||||
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0548,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9452,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,41,1
|
||||
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,37,1
|
||||
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20215384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7978461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,36,1
|
||||
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,35,1
|
||||
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,33,1
|
||||
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,34,1
|
||||
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,33,1
|
||||
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,32,1
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,29,1
|
||||
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,30,1
|
||||
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,28,1
|
||||
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,29,1
|
||||
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,29,1
|
||||
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,29,1
|
||||
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
|
||||
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,28,1
|
||||
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,28,1
|
||||
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,28,1
|
||||
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,27,1
|
||||
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,26,1
|
||||
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,26,1
|
||||
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8062264150943396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19377358490566043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",53,26,1
|
||||
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,26,1
|
||||
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,26,1
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,26,1
|
||||
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,25,1
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,24,1
|
||||
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,23,1
|
||||
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
|
||||
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
|
||||
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,23,1
|
||||
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,23,1
|
||||
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,22,1
|
||||
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,22,1
|
||||
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,22,1
|
||||
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,22,1
|
||||
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,22,1
|
||||
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,22,1
|
||||
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,21,1
|
||||
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
|
||||
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,21,1
|
||||
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
|
||||
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,21,1
|
||||
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,21,1
|
||||
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,21,1
|
||||
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,21,1
|
||||
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,21,1
|
||||
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,20,1
|
||||
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,20,1
|
||||
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,20,1
|
||||
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,20,1
|
||||
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
|
||||
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
|
||||
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
|
||||
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
|
||||
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,20,1
|
||||
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
|
||||
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
|
||||
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
|
||||
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
|
||||
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,19,1
|
||||
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
|
||||
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,18,1
|
||||
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
|
||||
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,19,1
|
||||
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8738461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12615384615384617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,19,1
|
||||
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
|
||||
"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8185714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18142857142857138,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,19,1
|
||||
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
|
||||
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,19,1
|
||||
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
|
||||
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
|
||||
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,19,1
|
||||
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,19,1
|
||||
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,18,1
|
||||
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,18,1
|
||||
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,18,1
|
||||
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
|
||||
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,18,1
|
||||
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,18,1
|
||||
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
|
||||
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
|
||||
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
|
||||
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
|
||||
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
|
||||
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,17,1
|
||||
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
|
||||
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
|
||||
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
|
||||
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
|
||||
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
|
||||
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
|
||||
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,17,1
|
||||
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
|
||||
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
|
||||
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
|
||||
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
|
||||
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
|
||||
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
|
||||
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,16,1
|
||||
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
|
||||
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,16,1
|
||||
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
|
||||
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
|
||||
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
|
||||
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
|
||||
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
|
||||
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
|
||||
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
|
||||
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
|
||||
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
|
||||
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
|
||||
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
|
||||
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
|
||||
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,15,1
|
||||
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
|
||||
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
|
||||
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
|
||||
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,15,1
|
||||
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
|
||||
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,15,1
|
||||
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
|
||||
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
|
||||
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
|
||||
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
|
||||
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,14,1
|
||||
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
|
||||
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
|
||||
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
|
||||
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
|
||||
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,14,1
|
||||
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
|
||||
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
|
||||
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,14,1
|
||||
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
|
||||
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
|
||||
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
|
||||
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
|
||||
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
|
||||
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
|
||||
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
|
||||
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
|
||||
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
|
||||
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
|
||||
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
|
||||
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
|
||||
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
|
||||
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
|
||||
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
|
||||
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
|
||||
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,13,1
|
||||
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
|
||||
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
|
||||
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
|
||||
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
|
||||
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
|
||||
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
|
||||
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
|
||||
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
|
||||
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,13,1
|
||||
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
|
||||
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
|
||||
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
|
||||
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
|
||||
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
|
||||
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
|
||||
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
|
||||
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
|
||||
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,12,1
|
||||
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,12,1
|
||||
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,12,1
|
||||
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
|
||||
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
|
||||
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
|
||||
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,12,1
|
||||
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,11,1
|
||||
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,11,1
|
||||
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,11,1
|
||||
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,11,1
|
||||
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,11,1
|
||||
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,11,1
|
||||
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,11,1
|
||||
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
|
||||
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
|
||||
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
|
||||
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
|
||||
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5484615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45153846153846156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,10,1
|
||||
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,10,1
|
||||
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
|
||||
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
|
||||
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
|
||||
|
||||
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
|
||||
|
||||
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
|
||||
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
|
||||
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
|
||||
|
||||
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
|
||||
|
||||
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
|
||||
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
|
||||
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
|
||||
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
|
||||
|
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|
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@ -1,342 +0,0 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "After the US Senate voted <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike\" target=\"_blank\">against</a> a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218\" target=\"_blank\">strategies</a>. The current federal minimum <a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206\" target=\"_blank\">wage</a> is <a href=\"https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage\" target=\"_blank\">$7.25</a> per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes, to less than $10.00",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00",
|
||||
"probability": 0.47,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more",
|
||||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.46,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">focus</a> on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from <a href=\"http://www.ev-volumes.com\" target=\"_blank\">EV-volumes.com</a> whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV & PHEV share for 2020 was <a href=\"http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/\" target=\"_blank\">4.2%</a>.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 4.0%",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.24,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.55,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 7.0%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows\" target=\"_blank\">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations\" target=\"_blank\">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history\" target=\"_blank\">pushing</a> to <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325\" target=\"_blank\">execute</a> its <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech\" target=\"_blank\">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\">UK</a> <a href=\"https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976\" target=\"_blank\">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Before 1 March 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.87,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">can</a> be <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\"> found</a> <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "In its 2020 report, The <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices\" target=\"_blank\">Conference</a> <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive\" target=\"_blank\">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/us/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>. ",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 23%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.32,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.66,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 27%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "The International Monetary Fund (<a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>) and <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering\" target=\"_blank\">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/\" target=\"_blank\">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending\" target=\"_blank\">website</a>, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls\" target=\"_blank\">April 2020</a> report.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Lower by more than 8%",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.77,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "Interest in <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter\" target=\"_blank\">sustainable</a> <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us\" target=\"_blank\">sector</a> <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs\" target=\"_blank\">investment</a> <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule\" target=\"_blank\">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows\" target=\"_blank\">data</a> from <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records\" target=\"_blank\">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "At or below 2020 levels",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.39,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">can</a> be <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\"> found</a> <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
|
||||
"probability": 0,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?</a>",
|
||||
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
|
||||
"platform": "Good Judgment",
|
||||
"description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits\" target=\"_blank\">workers</a> to work from <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487\" target=\"_blank\">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain\" target=\"_blank\">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "10% or less",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.72,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
|
||||
"probability": 0.26,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 30%",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
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|
|
@ -1,46 +0,0 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
|
||||
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
|
||||
"platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"description": "",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3032935619590304,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6967064380409697,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.315Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 1
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
|
||||
"platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"description": "",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5509755750419132,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": 0.44902442495808675,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.316Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"stars": 1
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,587 +0,0 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.04796853499144450688949206400915807",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9520314650085554931105079359908419",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "137",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1585.76",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "9977.68",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9007428867327054129165036606952368",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.09925711326729458708349633930476325",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "853",
|
||||
"liquidity": "9826.84",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "96927.10",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.5206285472686400507444749347907407",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.4793714527313599492555250652092593",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "590",
|
||||
"liquidity": "27288.56",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "95335.81",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-14-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 15, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 14, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.3535197095680785170642305476130527",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.6464802904319214829357694523869473",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "70",
|
||||
"liquidity": "6012.10",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "9506.53",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9339458073173414421656340245752705",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.06605419268265855783436597542472948",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "74",
|
||||
"liquidity": "11563.47",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "8977.70",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.1665007233546323391526042792748865",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.8334992766453676608473957207251135",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "107",
|
||||
"liquidity": "2136.64",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "8932.72",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9632262890311635630827874617597747",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.03677371096883643691721253824022533",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "528",
|
||||
"liquidity": "4057.43",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "80146.73",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "49,999 or fewer",
|
||||
"probability": "0.002230462986002085580952958875012663",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "50,000-62,499",
|
||||
"probability": "0.01943734896497328170661380961001092",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "62,500-74,999",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9761999336157880496144669916833917",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "75,000 or more",
|
||||
"probability": "0.002132254433236583097966239831584897",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "348",
|
||||
"liquidity": "2000.00",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "7745.24",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9950022276106855881319902372862853",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.004997772389314411868009762713714693",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "44",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1184.32",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "7441.96",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.732235446884398698530675700296491",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.267764553115601301469324299703509",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "1338",
|
||||
"liquidity": "206602.57",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "701564.43",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.03413667417694183066424578230798366",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9658633258230581693357542176920163",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "133",
|
||||
"liquidity": "2628.43",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "6625.39",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.06698999379989905965353372642409035",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9330100062001009403464662735759097",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "476",
|
||||
"liquidity": "4039.72",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "65732.40",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.03921719512341878664778748620392095",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.960782804876581213352212513796079",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "110",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1368.68",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "6123.61",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.01594316631423604659920151808627175",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9840568336857639534007984819137282",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "768",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1597.05",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "57034.77",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.04444621728750495279667043356264725",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9555537827124950472033295664373527",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "750",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1831.75",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "55256.23",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 170 Gwei on April 19?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-170-gwei-on-april-19",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 170 Gwei on April 19, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the daily average Ethereum gas price is listed as being below 170 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If the daily average Ethereum gas price is 170 Gwei or higher for that date, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 19, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.6755572443640393018752364739146016",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.3244427556359606981247635260853984",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "14",
|
||||
"liquidity": "804.76",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "533.17",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.08446095208233418986080353647514015",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9155390479176658101391964635248599",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "516",
|
||||
"liquidity": "7988.71",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "53145.52",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.5050241461157637610495418110858291",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.4949758538842362389504581889141709",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "42",
|
||||
"liquidity": "54242.49",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "4559.50",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on April 14, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elonmusk-account-on-april-14-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @ElonMusk, shall exceed 13,963 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @ElonMusk, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@ElonMusk\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @ElonMusk just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Elon Musk, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @ElonMusk will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Less than 30",
|
||||
"probability": "0.02712575215606869253252600966220513",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "30-40",
|
||||
"probability": "0.1115263745913060475253404147763908",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "41-50",
|
||||
"probability": "0.2219636014313589647902402720571277",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "51-60",
|
||||
"probability": "0.2547160184188490839953676900262511",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "61-70",
|
||||
"probability": "0.1907413972112541594210074122414898",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "71-80",
|
||||
"probability": "0.1255456580166040091498031486191968",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "More than 80",
|
||||
"probability": "0.06838119817455904258571505261733859",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "152",
|
||||
"liquidity": "2555.00",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "4495.18",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.7373184535851954646769817275173767",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.2626815464148045353230182724826233",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "68",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1000.00",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "4268.68",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Yes",
|
||||
"probability": "0.1958944749463810152808445623177045",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "No",
|
||||
"probability": "0.8041055250536189847191554376822955",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "101",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1131.33",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "4252.10",
|
||||
"stars": 4
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
|
||||
"platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Bezos",
|
||||
"probability": "0.9524984652600312046436200271105158",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Musk",
|
||||
"probability": "0.04750153473996879535637997288948422",
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "330",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1800.31",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "36782.54",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
|
|
@ -1,13 +0,0 @@
|
|||
Platform,Stars Nuño,Stars Misha,Stars Eli
|
||||
CSET-foretell,"2, 1 if less than 100 forecasts",2,3
|
||||
Good Judgment,4,3.5,4
|
||||
Good Judgment Open,"3, 2 if less than 100 forecasts",3.1 if > 10%,3
|
||||
Guesstimate,1,,
|
||||
Hypermind,3,,
|
||||
Metaculus,"4, 3 if less than 300, 2 if less than 100","3.3 on pandemic, 2.9 otherwise",3
|
||||
PolyMarket,"3 with more than $10k liquidity, 2 otherwise",4,"5 stars if more than 10k liquidity, 4 otherwise"
|
||||
PredictIt,2,2.5,3.5
|
||||
Smarkets,2,,
|
||||
Elicit,1,,
|
||||
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy,2,,
|
||||
Omen,2,,
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,34 +0,0 @@
|
|||
[ {
|
||||
"title": "Some title",
|
||||
"url": "someurl.com",
|
||||
"platform": "some platform",
|
||||
"description": "Some long description which may contain html",
|
||||
"moreoriginsdata": {
|
||||
"author": "Field may not exist",
|
||||
"contractAddress": "Field may not exist"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"options": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Option 1",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Option 2",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"name": "Option 3",
|
||||
"probability": 0.24,
|
||||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||||
"numforecasts": "137",
|
||||
"liquidity": "1585.76",
|
||||
"tradevolume": "9977.68",
|
||||
"stars": 3
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
|
|
@ -1,110 +0,0 @@
|
|||
title,url,probability,actualEstimate,platform,date_approx,category,description
|
||||
Total existential risk by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.17,~17% (~1 in 6),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,"Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""
|
||||
|
||||
This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his ""business as usual"" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
|
||||
Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.19,19%,GCR Conference,2008,Total risk,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
Existential risk in the 21st century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript,0.01,1%,Will MacAskill,2019,Total risk,
|
||||
Extinction risk in the next century,https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/,0.03,Probably at or above 3%,"Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",2017,Total risk,
|
||||
Risk of extinction over the next five centuries,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.3,At or above 30%,John Leslie,1996,Total risk,"""The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
|
||||
Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,"≤50% (""no better than fifty-fifty"")",Martin Rees,2003,Total risk,
|
||||
"There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/,0.08,Median: 1%. Mean: 8%.,Metaculus responders,,Total risk,That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.
|
||||
Existential disaster will do us in,https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html,0.25,Probably at or above 25%,Nick Bostrom,2002,Total risk,
|
||||
"Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,5%.,Gott III,1993,Total risk,
|
||||
Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0035,0.3-0.4%,Wells,2009,Total risk,
|
||||
Global catastrophic risk per year.,https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072,0.002,0.2%,Simpson,2016,Total risk,"Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about ""global catastrophic risk""."
|
||||
Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,50% (~1 in 2),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,
|
||||
Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg,0.2,>20%,Ozzie Gooen,2020,Total risk,"""I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."""
|
||||
Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.1,~10%,Toby Ord,2020,AI,
|
||||
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,Global Catastrophic Risk Conference,2008,AI,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence,https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807,0.05,5%,Survey of AI experts,2017,AI,"The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
|
||||
"A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,0-10%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,AI,
|
||||
AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg,0.055,~0.1-1%,Ben Garfinkel,2020,AI,"Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."""
|
||||
"Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.05,~5%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
|
||||
AI-induced existential catastrophe,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.5,50%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI,
|
||||
Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.0005,0.05%,James Fodor,2020,AI,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
|
||||
Existential risk from AI,https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229,0.175,5-30%,Stuart Armstrong,2020,AI,"""I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased."" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk. "
|
||||
Chance of humanity not surviving AI,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40),0.4,"50, 40, or 33%",Stuart Armstrong,2014,AI,"Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more ""optimism"" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
|
||||
Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/,0.01,~10%,Paul Christiano,2019,AI,"He also says ""I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number."" And ""All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."""
|
||||
Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?),https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854,41.5,33-50%,Jaan Tallinn,2020,AI,"This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said ""two obvious Schelling points"" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
|
||||
Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.03,~3% (~1 in 30),Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
|
||||
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.0005,0.05%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,"~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
|
||||
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.02,2%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.00004,0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include ""accidental"" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
|
||||
Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.0000019,0.00019% (0.0000019),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,
|
||||
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
|
||||
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,
|
||||
Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.000002,0.0002%,James Fodor,2020,Biorisk,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
|
||||
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.005,0.5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,0.0100%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Nanotechnology,
|
||||
Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.02,~2% (~1 in 50),Toby Ord,2020,Nanotechnology,See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)
|
||||
"Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810,0.33,"~33% (""about one in three"")",Toby Ord,2020,Total risk/conditional,"""Ord: """"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?
|
||||
|
||||
My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.""""
|
||||
|
||||
Arden Koehler replies """"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?""""
|
||||
|
||||
Ord replies: """"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."""""""
|
||||
"The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.18,18%,Survey of experts in the AI field,2016,AI/conditional,"This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was ""4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"" "
|
||||
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.1,~10%,Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
|
||||
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.7,~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates),Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,
|
||||
"Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.2,~20%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/conditional,"This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.
|
||||
""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
|
||||
|
||||
[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."""
|
||||
Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.02,~2%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/Conditional,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
|
||||
Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper,http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html,0.000055,"0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",Luke Oman,2012,Nuclear/Conditional,"I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
|
||||
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming ",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.1,10%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
|
||||
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
|
||||
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.35,30-40%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
|
||||
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
|
||||
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.6,60%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
|
||||
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
|
||||
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.9,90%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
|
||||
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
|
||||
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.97,97%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
|
||||
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
|
||||
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.03,3%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
|
||||
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905,0.1,10%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
|
||||
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906,0.001,0.1%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
|
||||
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907,0.25,25%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,"This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
|
||||
AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.1,~10%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,"""So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."""
|
||||
"AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.25,~20-30%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI/non-existential,"""There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."""
|
||||
We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI/non-existential,"""I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."""
|
||||
We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.5,~50%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/non-existential,"""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
|
||||
|
||||
Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."""
|
||||
Soft AGI takeoff,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.7,70%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.67,67%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.62,62%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.6,60%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.52,52%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.005,0.5%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.6,60%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.25,25%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.01,1%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
|
||||
chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.05,~5%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/non-existential,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
|
||||
Per year chance of nuclear war,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.011,1.10%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
|
||||
Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.0038,0.38%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
|
||||
Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Climate change/non-existential,
|
||||
At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.98,98%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.7,70%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
|
||||
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|
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[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.17,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.19,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"platform": "Will MacAskill",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
|
||||
"platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
|
||||
"platform": "John Leslie",
|
||||
"date_approx": 1996,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
|
||||
"platform": "Martin Rees",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2003,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.08,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.",
|
||||
"platform": "Metaculus responders",
|
||||
"date_approx": "2021",
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
|
||||
"platform": "Nick Bostrom",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2002,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "Gott III",
|
||||
"date_approx": 1993,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0035,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
|
||||
"platform": "Wells",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2009,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
|
||||
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
|
||||
"probability": 0.002,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.2%",
|
||||
"platform": "Simpson",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2016,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": ">20%",
|
||||
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
|
||||
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "Survey of AI experts",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0-10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
|
||||
"probability": 0.055,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
|
||||
"platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF He might have updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
|
||||
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
|
||||
"platform": "James Fodor",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
|
||||
"probability": 0.175,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "5-30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" He probably means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
|
||||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
|
||||
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2014,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
|
||||
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
|
||||
"probability": 0.415,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "33-50%",
|
||||
"platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
|
||||
"probability": 0.00004,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
|
||||
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0000019,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
|
||||
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000002,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
|
||||
"platform": "James Fodor",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
|
||||
"probability": 0.33,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Ord: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
|
||||
"probability": 0.18,
|
||||
"platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2016,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. He updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
|
||||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~20%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~2%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
|
||||
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000055,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
|
||||
"platform": "Luke Oman",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2012,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
|
||||
"description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.35,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "30-40%",
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.97,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
|
||||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
|
||||
"probability": 0.001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.1%",
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
|
||||
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
|
||||
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
|
||||
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
|
||||
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~50%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.67,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.62,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.52,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
|
||||
"probability": 0.011,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "1.10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0038,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.38%",
|
||||
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.72,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.72,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,858 +0,0 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.17,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.19,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"platform": "Will MacAskill",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
|
||||
"platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
|
||||
"platform": "John Leslie",
|
||||
"date_approx": 1996,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
|
||||
"platform": "Martin Rees",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2003,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.08,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.",
|
||||
"platform": "Metaculus responders",
|
||||
"date_approx": "2021",
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
|
||||
"platform": "Nick Bostrom",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2002,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "Gott III",
|
||||
"date_approx": 1993,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0035,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
|
||||
"platform": "Wells",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2009,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
|
||||
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
|
||||
"probability": 0.002,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.2%",
|
||||
"platform": "Simpson",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2016,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": ">20%",
|
||||
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk",
|
||||
"description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
|
||||
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "Survey of AI experts",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0-10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
|
||||
"probability": 0.055,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
|
||||
"platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
|
||||
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
|
||||
"platform": "James Fodor",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
|
||||
"probability": 0.175,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "5-30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
|
||||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
|
||||
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2014,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
|
||||
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
|
||||
"probability": 0.415,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "33-50%",
|
||||
"platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI",
|
||||
"description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
|
||||
"probability": 0.00004,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
|
||||
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0000019,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
|
||||
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2017,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000002,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
|
||||
"platform": "James Fodor",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk",
|
||||
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
|
||||
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology",
|
||||
"description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
|
||||
"probability": 0.33,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Total risk/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Ord: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
|
||||
"probability": 0.18,
|
||||
"platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2016,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
|
||||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~20%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~2%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
|
||||
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
|
||||
"probability": 0.000055,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
|
||||
"platform": "Luke Oman",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2012,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
|
||||
"description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.35,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "30-40%",
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.97,
|
||||
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
|
||||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
|
||||
"probability": 0.001,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.1%",
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
|
||||
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2006,
|
||||
"category": "Misc/conditional",
|
||||
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
|
||||
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
|
||||
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
|
||||
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
|
||||
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
|
||||
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~50%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.67,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.62,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.52,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.005,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "AI/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
|
||||
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
|
||||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
|
||||
"platform": "Toby Ord",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2020,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
|
||||
"probability": 0.011,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "1.10%",
|
||||
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
|
||||
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
|
||||
"probability": 0.0038,
|
||||
"actualEstimate": "0.38%",
|
||||
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2019,
|
||||
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Climate change/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
|
||||
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
|
||||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||||
"platform": "GCR Conference",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2008,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.72,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.72,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
|
||||
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||||
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
|
||||
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
|
||||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||||
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
|
||||
"date_approx": 2015,
|
||||
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
|
||||
"description": ""
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
42
docs/configuration.md
Normal file
42
docs/configuration.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
|
|||
# Configuration
|
||||
|
||||
All configuration is done through environment variables.
|
||||
|
||||
Not all of these are necessary to run the code. The most important ones are:
|
||||
|
||||
- `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES` pointing to the working Postgres database
|
||||
- `NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL` for the frontend to work properly
|
||||
|
||||
There's also a template configuration file in `../env.example`.
|
||||
|
||||
## Database endpoints
|
||||
|
||||
- `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES`, of the form `postgres://username:password@domain.com:port/configvars`. (Disregard `DIGITALOCEAN_` prefix, you can use any endpoint you like).
|
||||
- `DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES_PUBLIC`
|
||||
- `MONGODB_URL`, a string in the format `"mongodb+srv://<username>:<password>@<mongodburl>/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true"` (No longer really needed, superseded by Postgres).
|
||||
- `ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY`, a string of 32 hexidecimal characters, like `19b6c2234e50c98d30668659a39e3127` (not an actual key).
|
||||
|
||||
## Platform cookies and keys
|
||||
|
||||
Most of these are just session cookies, necessary to query INFER (previously CSET Foretell), Good Judgment Open and Hypermind (Hypermind is now deprecated). You can get these cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction, or browsing questions).
|
||||
|
||||
Note that not all of these cookies are needed to use all parts of the source code. For instance, to download Polymarket data, one could just interface with the Polymarket code. In particular, the code in this repository contains code to with the mongo database using read permissions, which are freely available.
|
||||
|
||||
- `GOODJUDGEMENTOPENCOOKIE`
|
||||
- `INFER_COOKIE`
|
||||
- `CSETFORETELL_COOKIE`, deprecated, superseded by `INFER_COOKIE`.
|
||||
- `HYPERMINDCOOKIE`
|
||||
- `GOOGLE_API_KEY`, necessary to fetch Peter Wildeford's predictions.
|
||||
- `SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT`
|
||||
|
||||
## Configuration flags
|
||||
|
||||
- `POSTGRES_NO_SSL`, can be set to a non-empty value to disable SSL; can be useful for local development.
|
||||
- `DEBUG_MODE`, usually `off`, which controls log verbosity.
|
||||
|
||||
## Others
|
||||
|
||||
- `NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL`, e.g., `http://localhost:3000` if you're running a local instance
|
||||
- `REBUIDNETLIFYHOOKURL`
|
||||
- `BACKUP_PROXY_IP`
|
||||
- `BACKUP_PROXY_PORT`
|
||||
18
env.example
Normal file
18
env.example
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
|
|||
#### You can copy this file to `.env` and modify accordingly.
|
||||
#### Documentation can be found in `docs/configuration.md`.
|
||||
|
||||
# ALGOLIA_MASTER_API_KEY=19b6c2234e50c98d30668659a39e3127
|
||||
|
||||
# DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES=postgresql://...@localhost:5432/...?schema=public
|
||||
# POSTGRES_NO_SSL=1
|
||||
|
||||
# MONGODB_URL=mongodb://localhost:27017
|
||||
|
||||
# NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=http://localhost:3000
|
||||
|
||||
# DEBUG_MODE=off
|
||||
|
||||
# INFER_COOKIE=...
|
||||
# GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE=TODO
|
||||
# GOOGLE_API_KEY=TODO
|
||||
# SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT=TODO
|
||||
5
next-env.d.ts
vendored
Normal file
5
next-env.d.ts
vendored
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
|
|||
/// <reference types="next" />
|
||||
/// <reference types="next/image-types/global" />
|
||||
|
||||
// NOTE: This file should not be edited
|
||||
// see https://nextjs.org/docs/basic-features/typescript for more information.
|
||||
58470
package-lock.json
generated
58470
package-lock.json
generated
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
70
package.json
70
package.json
|
|
@ -1,43 +1,87 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"name": "metaforecasts",
|
||||
"name": "metaforecast",
|
||||
"version": "1.0.0",
|
||||
"description": "Get forecasts from various platforms",
|
||||
"main": "src/index.js",
|
||||
"scripts": {
|
||||
"start": "node src/index.js",
|
||||
"test": "echo \"Error: no test specified\" && exit 1",
|
||||
"reload": "heroku run:detached node src/utils/doEverythingForScheduler.js",
|
||||
"setCookies": "./src/utils/setCookies.sh"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"repository": {
|
||||
"type": "git",
|
||||
"url": "git+https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts.git"
|
||||
"url": "git+https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast.git"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"keywords": [
|
||||
"forecasts",
|
||||
"predictions"
|
||||
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|
||||
"license": "MIT",
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"bugs": {
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"setCookies": "./src/backend/utils/setCookies.sh",
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"next-start": "next start",
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"next-export": "next export",
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"dbshell": ". .env && psql $DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES"
|
||||
},
|
||||
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|
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"dotenv": "^16.0.0",
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"fetch": "^1.1.0",
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"fs": "^0.0.1-security",
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"fuse.js": "^6.4.6",
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||||
"google-spreadsheet": "^3.1.15",
|
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"graphql": "^16.3.0",
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"graphql-request": "^4.0.0",
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"html-to-image": "^1.7.0",
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"https": "^1.0.0",
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"isomorphic-fetch": "^3.0.0",
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"next": "12",
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"react-dom": "^17.0.2",
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"react-dropdown": "^1.9.2",
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"react-hook-form": "^7.27.0",
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|
|
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7
postcss.config.js
Normal file
7
postcss.config.js
Normal file
|
|
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// postcss.config.js
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module.exports = {
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tailwindcss: {},
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4
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|
||||
<path style=" stroke:none;fill-rule:nonzero;fill:url(#linear1);" d="M 641.753906 382.371094 C 651.398438 380.542969 661.667969 380.78125 672.71875 383.597656 C 714.789062 394.34375 755.632812 459.996094 816.601562 574.902344 C 825.488281 591.652344 834.808594 609.449219 844.617188 628.273438 C 845.882812 630.699219 847.128906 633.09375 848.410156 635.554688 C 921.011719 775.046875 1003.234375 932.941406 1088.4375 997.050781 L 1176.742188 950.914062 C 1161.925781 938.613281 1147.269531 926 1132.917969 912.992188 C 1075.394531 860.863281 1028.101562 782.429688 987.699219 697.753906 C 979.667969 680.917969 971.90625 663.84375 964.390625 646.664062 C 939.894531 590.679688 918.023438 533.742188 897.886719 481.304688 C 853.246094 365.027344 800.65625 173.332031 761.789062 173.136719 C 761.746094 173.136719 761.703125 173.136719 761.660156 173.136719 C 714.050781 173.128906 674.898438 306.761719 641.753906 382.371094 "/>
|
||||
</g>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 5.8 KiB |
BIN
public/screenshot.png
Normal file
BIN
public/screenshot.png
Normal file
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 364 KiB |
|
|
@ -1,10 +1,9 @@
|
|||
import {
|
||||
mongoUpsert,
|
||||
mongoRead,
|
||||
mongoReadWithReadCredentials,
|
||||
mongoGetAllElements,
|
||||
} from "./mongo-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { pgUpsert, pgRead, pgReadWithReadCredentials } from "./pg-wrapper.js";
|
||||
mongoUpsert,
|
||||
} from "./mongo-wrapper";
|
||||
import { pgRead, pgReadWithReadCredentials, pgUpsert } from "./pg-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
export async function databaseUpsert({ contents, group }) {
|
||||
// No, this should be more rational, ({contents, group, schema})? Or should this be managed by this layer? Unclear.
|
||||
|
|
@ -23,9 +22,7 @@ export async function databaseUpsert({ contents, group }) {
|
|||
break;
|
||||
case "history":
|
||||
let currentDate = new Date();
|
||||
let dateUpToYear = currentDate.
|
||||
toISOString()
|
||||
.slice(0,4)
|
||||
let dateUpToYear = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 4);
|
||||
let dateUpToMonth = currentDate
|
||||
.toISOString()
|
||||
.slice(0, 7)
|
||||
|
|
@ -37,8 +34,16 @@ export async function databaseUpsert({ contents, group }) {
|
|||
"metaforecastHistory",
|
||||
"metaforecastDatabase"
|
||||
);
|
||||
await pgUpsert({ contents, schema: "history", tableName: `h${dateUpToYear}` });
|
||||
await pgUpsert({ contents, schema: "history", tableName: `h${dateUpToMonth}` });
|
||||
await pgUpsert({
|
||||
contents,
|
||||
schema: "history",
|
||||
tableName: `h${dateUpToYear}`,
|
||||
});
|
||||
await pgUpsert({
|
||||
contents,
|
||||
schema: "history",
|
||||
tableName: `h${dateUpToMonth}`,
|
||||
});
|
||||
break;
|
||||
default:
|
||||
mongoDocName = `${group}-questions`;
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,10 +1,14 @@
|
|||
import pkg from 'mongodb';
|
||||
import pkg from "mongodb";
|
||||
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize";
|
||||
const { MongoClient } = pkg;
|
||||
import { getSecret } from "../utils/getSecrets.js"
|
||||
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize.js"
|
||||
|
||||
export async function mongoUpsert(contents, documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastCollection", databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase") {
|
||||
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL || getSecret("mongodb");
|
||||
export async function mongoUpsert(
|
||||
contents,
|
||||
documentName,
|
||||
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection",
|
||||
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase"
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL;
|
||||
const client = new MongoClient(url);
|
||||
try {
|
||||
await client.connect();
|
||||
|
|
@ -15,43 +19,54 @@ export async function mongoUpsert(contents, documentName, collectionName = "meta
|
|||
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
|
||||
|
||||
// Construct a document
|
||||
let document = ({
|
||||
"name": documentName,
|
||||
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
"contentsArray": contents
|
||||
})
|
||||
let document = {
|
||||
name: documentName,
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
contentsArray: contents,
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// Create a filter
|
||||
const filter = { "name": documentName };
|
||||
const filter = { name: documentName };
|
||||
|
||||
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
|
||||
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
|
||||
await collection.replaceOne(filter, document, { upsert: true });
|
||||
console.log(`Pushed document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(document)} MB`)
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Pushed document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(
|
||||
document
|
||||
)} MB`
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
// Find one document
|
||||
const myDocument = await collection.findOne(filter);
|
||||
// Print to the console
|
||||
console.log(`Received document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(contents)} MB`)
|
||||
console.log("Sample: ")
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Received document ${documentName} in collection ${collectionName} in database ${databaseName} with approximate size ${roughSizeOfObject(
|
||||
contents
|
||||
)} MB`
|
||||
);
|
||||
console.log("Sample: ");
|
||||
console.log(JSON.stringify(myDocument.contentsArray.slice(0, 1), null, 4));
|
||||
} catch (err) {
|
||||
console.log(err.stack);
|
||||
}
|
||||
finally {
|
||||
} finally {
|
||||
await client.close();
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastCollection", databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase") {
|
||||
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL || getSecret("mongodb");
|
||||
export async function mongoRead(
|
||||
documentName,
|
||||
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection",
|
||||
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase"
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL;
|
||||
|
||||
const client = new MongoClient(url, {
|
||||
useNewUrlParser: true,
|
||||
useUnifiedTopology: true,
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
let documentContents
|
||||
let documentContents = [];
|
||||
try {
|
||||
await client.connect();
|
||||
console.log(`Connected correctly to server to read ${documentName}`);
|
||||
|
|
@ -61,7 +76,7 @@ export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastColl
|
|||
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
|
||||
|
||||
// Search options
|
||||
const query = { "name": documentName };
|
||||
const query = { name: documentName };
|
||||
const options = {
|
||||
// sort matched documents in descending order by rating
|
||||
sort: { rating: -1 },
|
||||
|
|
@ -70,26 +85,30 @@ export async function mongoRead(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastColl
|
|||
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
|
||||
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
|
||||
const document = await collection.findOne(query, options);
|
||||
documentContents = document.contentsArray
|
||||
documentContents = document.contentsArray;
|
||||
} catch (err) {
|
||||
console.log(err.stack);
|
||||
}
|
||||
finally {
|
||||
} finally {
|
||||
await client.close();
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(documentContents.slice(0, 1));
|
||||
return documentContents
|
||||
return documentContents;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(documentName, collectionName = "metaforecastCollection", databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase") {
|
||||
const url = "mongodb+srv://metaforecast-frontend:hJr5c9kDhbutBtF1@metaforecastdatabaseclu.wgk8a.mongodb.net/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true"; // This user only has read permissions, so I'm not excessively worried, and would even be pleased, if someone read this and decided to do something cool with the database.
|
||||
export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(
|
||||
documentName,
|
||||
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection",
|
||||
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase"
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const url =
|
||||
"mongodb+srv://metaforecast-frontend:hJr5c9kDhbutBtF1@metaforecastdatabaseclu.wgk8a.mongodb.net/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true"; // This user only has read permissions, so I'm not excessively worried, and would even be pleased, if someone read this and decided to do something cool with the database.
|
||||
|
||||
const client = new MongoClient(url, {
|
||||
useNewUrlParser: true,
|
||||
useUnifiedTopology: true,
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
let documentContents
|
||||
let documentContents;
|
||||
try {
|
||||
await client.connect();
|
||||
// console.log(`Connected correctly to server to read ${documentName}`);
|
||||
|
|
@ -99,7 +118,7 @@ export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(documentName, collectionName
|
|||
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
|
||||
|
||||
// Search options
|
||||
const query = { "name": documentName };
|
||||
const query = { name: documentName };
|
||||
const options = {
|
||||
// sort matched documents in descending order by rating
|
||||
sort: { rating: -1 },
|
||||
|
|
@ -108,19 +127,21 @@ export async function mongoReadWithReadCredentials(documentName, collectionName
|
|||
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
|
||||
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
|
||||
const document = await collection.findOne(query, options);
|
||||
documentContents = document.contentsArray
|
||||
documentContents = document.contentsArray;
|
||||
} catch (err) {
|
||||
console.log(err.stack);
|
||||
}
|
||||
finally {
|
||||
} finally {
|
||||
await client.close();
|
||||
}
|
||||
// console.log(documentContents.slice(0,1));
|
||||
return documentContents
|
||||
return documentContents;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function mongoGetAllElements(databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase", collectionName = "metaforecastCollection") {
|
||||
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL || getSecret("mongodb");
|
||||
export async function mongoGetAllElements(
|
||||
databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase",
|
||||
collectionName = "metaforecastCollection"
|
||||
) {
|
||||
const url = process.env.MONGODB_URL;
|
||||
const client = new MongoClient(url, {
|
||||
useNewUrlParser: true,
|
||||
useUnifiedTopology: true,
|
||||
|
|
@ -135,21 +156,22 @@ export async function mongoGetAllElements(databaseName = "metaforecastDatabase",
|
|||
const collection = db.collection(collectionName);
|
||||
|
||||
// Search options
|
||||
const query = ({});
|
||||
const options = ({});
|
||||
const query = {};
|
||||
const options = {};
|
||||
|
||||
// Insert a single document, wait for promise so we can read it back
|
||||
// const p = await collection.insertOne(metaforecastDocument);
|
||||
const documents = await collection.find().toArray()
|
||||
let documentNames = documents.map(document => ({ name: document.name, roughSizeMBs: roughSizeOfObject(document) }));
|
||||
console.log(documentNames)
|
||||
const documents = await collection.find().toArray();
|
||||
let documentNames = documents.map((document) => ({
|
||||
name: document.name,
|
||||
roughSizeMBs: roughSizeOfObject(document),
|
||||
}));
|
||||
console.log(documentNames);
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
console.log(error)
|
||||
}
|
||||
finally {
|
||||
console.log(error);
|
||||
} finally {
|
||||
await client.close();
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
//mongoGetAllElements()
|
||||
//mongoGetAllElements("metaforecastDatabase", "metaforecastHistory")
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,30 +1,26 @@
|
|||
import pkg from "pg";
|
||||
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all/platformNames";
|
||||
import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
|
||||
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize";
|
||||
const { Pool } = pkg;
|
||||
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all/platformNames.js";
|
||||
import { getSecret } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
|
||||
import { roughSizeOfObject } from "../utils/roughSize.js";
|
||||
import { hash } from "../utils/hash.js";
|
||||
|
||||
// Definitions
|
||||
const schemas = ["latest", "history"];
|
||||
const year = Number(new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 4));
|
||||
const allowed_years = [year, year + 1].map(year => `h${year}`); // tables can't begin with number
|
||||
const allowed_years = [year, year + 1].map((year) => `h${year}`); // tables can't begin with number
|
||||
const allowed_months = [...Array(12).keys()]
|
||||
.map((x) => x + 1)
|
||||
.map(x => String(x).length == 1 ? `0${x}` : x);
|
||||
.map((x) => (String(x).length == 1 ? `0${x}` : x));
|
||||
const allowed_year_month_histories = [].concat(
|
||||
...allowed_years.map((year) =>
|
||||
allowed_months.map((month) => `${year}_${month}`)
|
||||
)
|
||||
); // h2022_01
|
||||
const tableNamesWhitelistLatest = [
|
||||
"combined",
|
||||
...platformNames,
|
||||
];
|
||||
const tableNamesWhitelistLatest = ["combined", ...platformNames];
|
||||
const tableNamesWhiteListHistory = [
|
||||
...allowed_years,
|
||||
...allowed_year_month_histories,
|
||||
]
|
||||
];
|
||||
const tableNamesWhitelist = [
|
||||
...tableNamesWhitelistLatest,
|
||||
...tableNamesWhiteListHistory,
|
||||
|
|
@ -38,28 +34,31 @@ const tableWhiteList = [
|
|||
];
|
||||
|
||||
/* Postgres database connection code */
|
||||
const databaseURL =
|
||||
process.env.DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES || getSecret("digitalocean-postgres");
|
||||
// process.env.DATABASE_URL || getSecret("heroku-postgres")
|
||||
const readWritePool = new Pool({
|
||||
const databaseURL = process.env.DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES;
|
||||
export const readWritePool = new Pool({
|
||||
connectionString: databaseURL,
|
||||
ssl: {
|
||||
rejectUnauthorized: false,
|
||||
},
|
||||
ssl: process.env.POSTGRES_NO_SSL
|
||||
? false
|
||||
: {
|
||||
rejectUnauthorized: false,
|
||||
},
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
const readOnlyDatabaseURL =
|
||||
"postgresql://public_read_only_user:gOcihnLhqRIQUQYt@postgres-red-do-user-10290909-0.b.db.ondigitalocean.com:25060/metaforecastpg?sslmode=require" ||
|
||||
getSecret("digitalocean-postgres-public");
|
||||
const readOnlyPool = new Pool({ // never used
|
||||
process.env.DIGITALOCEAN_POSTGRES_PUBLIC;
|
||||
const readOnlyPool = new Pool({
|
||||
// never used
|
||||
connectionString: readOnlyDatabaseURL,
|
||||
ssl: {
|
||||
rejectUnauthorized: false,
|
||||
},
|
||||
ssl: process.env.POSTGRES_NO_SSL
|
||||
? false
|
||||
: {
|
||||
rejectUnauthorized: false,
|
||||
},
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// Helpers
|
||||
const runPgCommand = async ({ command, pool }) => {
|
||||
export const runPgCommand = async ({ command, pool }) => {
|
||||
console.log(command);
|
||||
const client = await pool.connect();
|
||||
let result;
|
||||
|
|
@ -83,7 +82,7 @@ let createIndex = (schema, table) =>
|
|||
let createUniqueIndex = (schema, table) =>
|
||||
`CREATE UNIQUE INDEX ${schema}_${table}_id_index ON ${schema}.${table} (id);`;
|
||||
|
||||
async function pgInitializeScaffolding(){
|
||||
async function pgInitializeScaffolding() {
|
||||
async function setPermissionsForPublicUser() {
|
||||
let initCommands = [
|
||||
"REVOKE ALL ON DATABASE metaforecastpg FROM public_read_only_user;",
|
||||
|
|
@ -132,7 +131,7 @@ async function pgInitializeScaffolding(){
|
|||
console.log("Set public user permissions");
|
||||
await setPermissionsForPublicUser();
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
}else {
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
"pgInitializeScaffolding: This command is dangerous, set YOLO to true in the code to invoke it"
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
|
@ -159,7 +158,7 @@ async function pgInitializeLatest() {
|
|||
let YOLO = false;
|
||||
if (YOLO) {
|
||||
console.log("Create tables & their indexes");
|
||||
let schema = "latest"
|
||||
let schema = "latest";
|
||||
for (let table of tableNamesWhitelistLatest) {
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: dropTable(schema, table),
|
||||
|
|
@ -177,10 +176,10 @@ async function pgInitializeLatest() {
|
|||
});
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
*/
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: createUniqueIndex(schema, table),
|
||||
pool: readWritePool,
|
||||
});
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: createUniqueIndex(schema, table),
|
||||
pool: readWritePool,
|
||||
});
|
||||
//}
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
|
|
@ -193,7 +192,7 @@ async function pgInitializeLatest() {
|
|||
|
||||
async function pgInitializeDashboards() {
|
||||
let buildDashboard = () =>
|
||||
`CREATE TABLE latest.dashboards (
|
||||
`CREATE TABLE latest.dashboards (
|
||||
id text,
|
||||
title text,
|
||||
description text,
|
||||
|
|
@ -241,10 +240,7 @@ async function pgInitializeDashboards() {
|
|||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
let buildHistoryTable = (
|
||||
schema,
|
||||
table
|
||||
) => `CREATE TABLE ${schema}.${table} (
|
||||
let buildHistoryTable = (schema, table) => `CREATE TABLE ${schema}.${table} (
|
||||
id text,
|
||||
title text,
|
||||
url text,
|
||||
|
|
@ -283,7 +279,7 @@ export async function pgInitializeHistories() {
|
|||
console.log("");
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Create tables & their indexes");
|
||||
let schema = "history"
|
||||
let schema = "history";
|
||||
for (let table of tableNamesWhiteListHistory) {
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: dropTable(schema, table),
|
||||
|
|
@ -306,10 +302,34 @@ export async function pgInitializeHistories() {
|
|||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function pgInitializeFrontpage() {
|
||||
let YOLO = false;
|
||||
if (YOLO) {
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: dropTable("latest", "frontpage"),
|
||||
pool: readWritePool,
|
||||
});
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: `CREATE TABLE latest.frontpage (
|
||||
id serial primary key,
|
||||
frontpage_full jsonb,
|
||||
frontpage_sliced jsonb
|
||||
);`,
|
||||
pool: readWritePool,
|
||||
});
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
"pgInitializeFrontpage: This command is dangerous, set YOLO to true in the code to invoke it"
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function pgInitialize() {
|
||||
await pgInitializeScaffolding();
|
||||
await pgInitializeLatest();
|
||||
await pgInitializeHistories();
|
||||
await pgInitializeDashboards();
|
||||
await pgInitializeFrontpage();
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Read
|
||||
|
|
@ -478,7 +498,7 @@ pgInsertIntoDashboard({
|
|||
*/
|
||||
export async function pgUpsert({ contents, schema, tableName }) {
|
||||
if (tableWhiteList.includes(`${schema}.${tableName}`)) {
|
||||
let init = Date.now()
|
||||
let init = Date.now();
|
||||
if (schema == "latest") {
|
||||
await runPgCommand({
|
||||
command: dropTable(schema, tableName),
|
||||
|
|
@ -493,8 +513,16 @@ export async function pgUpsert({ contents, schema, tableName }) {
|
|||
pool: readWritePool,
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(`Upserting ${contents.length} rows into postgres table ${schema}.${tableName}.`);
|
||||
console.log(`Expected to take ${Number(contents.length * 831.183 / 4422).toFixed(2)} seconds or ${Number(contents.length * 13.85305 / 4422).toFixed(2)} minutes`)
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Upserting ${contents.length} rows into postgres table ${schema}.${tableName}.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Expected to take ${Number((contents.length * 831.183) / 4422).toFixed(
|
||||
2
|
||||
)} seconds or ${Number((contents.length * 13.85305) / 4422).toFixed(
|
||||
2
|
||||
)} minutes`
|
||||
);
|
||||
let i = 0;
|
||||
for (let datum of contents) {
|
||||
await pgInsert({ datum, schema, tableName });
|
||||
|
|
@ -507,29 +535,36 @@ export async function pgUpsert({ contents, schema, tableName }) {
|
|||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Inserted ${contents.length} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
|
||||
`Inserted ${
|
||||
contents.length
|
||||
} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
|
||||
contents
|
||||
)} MB into ${schema}.${tableName}.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
let check = await pgRead({ schema, tableName });
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Received ${check.length} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
|
||||
`Received ${
|
||||
check.length
|
||||
} rows with approximate cummulative size ${roughSizeOfObject(
|
||||
check
|
||||
)} MB from ${schema}.${tableName}.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
console.log("Sample: ");
|
||||
console.log(JSON.stringify(check.slice(0, 1), null, 4));
|
||||
|
||||
let end = Date.now()
|
||||
let difference = end - init
|
||||
console.log(`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`)
|
||||
let end = Date.now();
|
||||
let difference = end - init;
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${
|
||||
difference / (1000 * 60)
|
||||
} minutes.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
//console.log(JSON.stringify(check.slice(0, 1), null, 4));
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log("tableWhiteList:")
|
||||
console.log(tableWhiteList)
|
||||
console.log("tableWhiteList:");
|
||||
console.log(tableWhiteList);
|
||||
throw Error(
|
||||
|
||||
`Table ${schema}.${tableName} not in whitelist; stopping to avoid tricky sql injections`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
58
src/backend/flow/doEverything.js
Normal file
58
src/backend/flow/doEverything.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
|
|||
import { platformFetchers } from "../platforms/all-platforms";
|
||||
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "../utils/algolia";
|
||||
import { updateHistory } from "./history/updateHistory";
|
||||
import { mergeEverything } from "./mergeEverything";
|
||||
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData";
|
||||
/* Do everything */
|
||||
function sleep(ms) {
|
||||
return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function tryCatchTryAgain(fun) {
|
||||
try {
|
||||
console.log("Initial try");
|
||||
await fun();
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
sleep(10000);
|
||||
console.log("Second try");
|
||||
console.log(error);
|
||||
try {
|
||||
await fun();
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
console.log(error);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function doEverything() {
|
||||
let functions = [
|
||||
...platformFetchers,
|
||||
mergeEverything,
|
||||
rebuildAlgoliaDatabase,
|
||||
updateHistory,
|
||||
rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData,
|
||||
];
|
||||
// Removed Good Judgment from the fetcher, doing it using cron instead because cloudflare blocks the utility on heroku.
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("================================");
|
||||
console.log("STARTING UP");
|
||||
console.log("================================");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
|
||||
for (let fun of functions) {
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("");
|
||||
console.log("****************************");
|
||||
console.log(fun.name);
|
||||
console.log("****************************");
|
||||
await tryCatchTryAgain(fun);
|
||||
console.log("****************************");
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
3
src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.js
Normal file
3
src/backend/flow/doEverythingForScheduler.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
|
|||
import { doEverything } from "./doEverything";
|
||||
|
||||
doEverything();
|
||||
110
src/backend/flow/history/old/addToHistory.js
Normal file
110
src/backend/flow/history/old/addToHistory.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
|
|||
import {
|
||||
databaseReadWithReadCredentials,
|
||||
databaseUpsert,
|
||||
} from "../../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
let isEmptyArray = (arr) => arr.length == 0;
|
||||
|
||||
export async function addToHistory() {
|
||||
let currentDate = new Date();
|
||||
let dateUpToMonth = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 7).replace("-", "_");
|
||||
|
||||
let currentJSONwithMetaculus = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({
|
||||
group: "combined",
|
||||
});
|
||||
let currentJSON = currentJSONwithMetaculus.filter(
|
||||
(element) =>
|
||||
element.platform != "Metaculus" && element.platform != "Estimize"
|
||||
); // without Metaculus
|
||||
// console.log(currentJSON.slice(0,20))
|
||||
// console.log(currentJSON)
|
||||
let historyJSON = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "history" });
|
||||
// console.log(historyJSON)
|
||||
|
||||
let currentForecastsWithAHistory = currentJSON.filter(
|
||||
(element) =>
|
||||
!isEmptyArray(
|
||||
historyJSON.filter(
|
||||
(historyElement) =>
|
||||
historyElement.title == element.title &&
|
||||
historyElement.url == element.url
|
||||
)
|
||||
)
|
||||
);
|
||||
// console.log(currentForecastsWithAHistory)
|
||||
|
||||
let currentForecastsWithoutAHistory = currentJSON.filter((element) =>
|
||||
isEmptyArray(
|
||||
historyJSON.filter(
|
||||
(historyElement) =>
|
||||
historyElement.title == element.title &&
|
||||
historyElement.url == element.url
|
||||
)
|
||||
)
|
||||
);
|
||||
// console.log(currentForecastsWithoutAHistory)
|
||||
|
||||
// Add both types of forecast
|
||||
let newHistoryJSON = [];
|
||||
for (let historyElement of historyJSON) {
|
||||
let correspondingNewElementArray = currentForecastsWithAHistory.filter(
|
||||
(element) =>
|
||||
historyElement.title == element.title &&
|
||||
historyElement.url == element.url
|
||||
);
|
||||
// console.log(correspondingNewElement)
|
||||
if (!isEmptyArray(correspondingNewElementArray)) {
|
||||
let correspondingNewElement = correspondingNewElementArray[0];
|
||||
let timeStampOfNewElement = correspondingNewElement.timestamp;
|
||||
let doesHistoryAlreadyContainElement = historyElement.history
|
||||
.map((element) => element.timestamp)
|
||||
.includes(timeStampOfNewElement);
|
||||
if (!doesHistoryAlreadyContainElement) {
|
||||
let historyWithNewElement = historyElement["history"].concat({
|
||||
timestamp: correspondingNewElement.timestamp,
|
||||
options: correspondingNewElement.options,
|
||||
qualityindicators: correspondingNewElement.qualityindicators,
|
||||
});
|
||||
let newHistoryElement = {
|
||||
...correspondingNewElement,
|
||||
history: historyWithNewElement,
|
||||
};
|
||||
// If some element (like the description) changes, we keep the new one.
|
||||
newHistoryJSON.push(newHistoryElement);
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
newHistoryJSON.push(historyElement);
|
||||
}
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
// console.log(historyElement)
|
||||
newHistoryJSON.push(historyElement);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
for (let currentForecast of currentForecastsWithoutAHistory) {
|
||||
let newHistoryElement = {
|
||||
...currentForecast,
|
||||
history: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
timestamp: currentForecast.timestamp,
|
||||
options: currentForecast.options,
|
||||
qualityindicators: currentForecast.qualityindicators,
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
};
|
||||
delete newHistoryElement.timestamp;
|
||||
delete newHistoryElement.options;
|
||||
delete newHistoryElement.qualityindicators;
|
||||
newHistoryJSON.push(newHistoryElement);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: newHistoryJSON, group: "history" });
|
||||
|
||||
// console.log(newHistoryJSON.slice(0,5))
|
||||
// writeFileSync("metaforecast_history.json", JSON.stringify(newHistoryJSON, null, 2))
|
||||
// writefile(JSON.stringify(newHistoryJSON, null, 2), "metaforecasts_history", "", ".json")
|
||||
//console.log(newHistoryJSON)
|
||||
/*
|
||||
let forecastsAlreadyInHistory = currentJSON.filter(element => !isEmptyArray(historyJSON.filter(historyElement => historyElement.title == element.title && historyElement.url == element.url )))
|
||||
*/
|
||||
//console.log(new Date().toISOString())
|
||||
}
|
||||
// updateHistory()
|
||||
36
src/backend/flow/history/old/createHistoryForMonth.js
Normal file
36
src/backend/flow/history/old/createHistoryForMonth.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
|||
import { databaseRead, databaseUpsert } from "../../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
export async function createHistoryForMonth() {
|
||||
let currentDate = new Date();
|
||||
let dateUpToMonth = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 7).replace("-", "_");
|
||||
let metaforecasts = await databaseRead({ group: "combined" });
|
||||
let metaforecastsHistorySeed = metaforecasts
|
||||
.map((element) => {
|
||||
// let moreoriginsdata = element.author ? ({author: element.author}) : ({})
|
||||
return {
|
||||
title: element.title,
|
||||
url: element.url,
|
||||
platform: element.platform,
|
||||
moreoriginsdata: element.moreoriginsdata || {},
|
||||
description: element.description,
|
||||
history: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
timestamp: element.timestamp,
|
||||
options: element.options,
|
||||
qualityindicators: element.qualityindicators,
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
extra: element.extra || {},
|
||||
};
|
||||
})
|
||||
.filter(
|
||||
(element) =>
|
||||
element.platform != "Metaculus" && element.platform != "Estimize"
|
||||
);
|
||||
//console.log(metaforecastsHistorySeed)
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({
|
||||
contents: metaforecastsHistorySeed,
|
||||
group: "history",
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
////createInitialHistory()
|
||||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
|
|||
import { databaseRead, databaseUpsert } from "../database-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
let createInitialHistory = async () => {
|
||||
let metaforecasts = await databaseRead({ group: "combined" });
|
||||
let metaforecastsHistorySeed = metaforecasts.map((element) => {
|
||||
// let moreoriginsdata = element.author ? ({author: element.author}) : ({})
|
||||
return {
|
||||
title: element.title,
|
||||
url: element.url,
|
||||
platform: element.platform,
|
||||
moreoriginsdata: element.moreoriginsdata || {},
|
||||
description: element.description,
|
||||
history: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
timestamp: element.timestamp,
|
||||
options: element.options,
|
||||
qualityindicators: element.qualityindicators,
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
extra: element.extra || {},
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
console.log(metaforecastsHistorySeed);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({
|
||||
contents: metaforecastsHistorySeed,
|
||||
group: "history",
|
||||
});
|
||||
};
|
||||
createInitialHistory();
|
||||
21
src/backend/flow/history/old/updateHistory.js
Normal file
21
src/backend/flow/history/old/updateHistory.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
|||
import { addToHistory } from "./addToHistory";
|
||||
import { createHistoryForMonth } from "./createHistoryForMonth";
|
||||
|
||||
export async function updateHistoryOld() {
|
||||
let currentDate = new Date();
|
||||
let dayOfMonth = currentDate.getDate();
|
||||
if (dayOfMonth == 1) {
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Creating history for the month ${currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 7)}`
|
||||
);
|
||||
await createHistoryForMonth();
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log(`Updating history for ${currentDate.toISOString()}`);
|
||||
await addToHistory();
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function updateHistory() {
|
||||
let currentDate = new Date();
|
||||
let year = currentDate.toISOString().slice(0, 4);
|
||||
}
|
||||
12
src/backend/flow/history/updateHistory.js
Normal file
12
src/backend/flow/history/updateHistory.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||
import {
|
||||
databaseReadWithReadCredentials,
|
||||
databaseUpsert,
|
||||
} from "../../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
export async function updateHistory() {
|
||||
let latest = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" });
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({
|
||||
contents: latest,
|
||||
group: "history",
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
|
|||
import { databaseRead, databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all-platforms.js"
|
||||
import { databaseRead, databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { platformNames } from "../platforms/all-platforms";
|
||||
/* Merge everything */
|
||||
|
||||
export async function mergeEverythingInner() {
|
||||
14
src/backend/flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js
Normal file
14
src/backend/flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
|
||||
|
||||
async function rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData_inner(cookie) {
|
||||
let payload = {};
|
||||
let response = await axios.post(cookie, payload);
|
||||
let data = response.data;
|
||||
console.log(data);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData() {
|
||||
let cookie = process.env.REBUIDNETLIFYHOOKURL;
|
||||
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData_inner);
|
||||
}
|
||||
68
src/backend/frontpage.ts
Normal file
68
src/backend/frontpage.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
|||
import { pgRead, readWritePool } from './database/pg-wrapper';
|
||||
|
||||
export async function getFrontpageRaw() {
|
||||
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
|
||||
const res = await client.query(
|
||||
"SELECT frontpage_sliced FROM latest.frontpage ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1"
|
||||
);
|
||||
if (!res.rows.length) return [];
|
||||
console.log(res.rows[0].frontpage_sliced);
|
||||
return res.rows[0].frontpage_sliced;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function getFrontpageFullRaw() {
|
||||
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
|
||||
const res = await client.query(
|
||||
"SELECT frontpage_full FROM latest.frontpage ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1"
|
||||
);
|
||||
if (!res.rows.length) return [];
|
||||
console.log(res.rows[0]);
|
||||
return res.rows[0].frontpage_full;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function getFrontpage() {
|
||||
let frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse = [];
|
||||
try {
|
||||
let data = await getFrontpageRaw();
|
||||
frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse = data.map((result) => ({
|
||||
item: result,
|
||||
score: 0,
|
||||
}));
|
||||
return frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse;
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
console.log(error);
|
||||
} finally {
|
||||
return frontPageForecastsCompatibleWithFuse;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function rebuildFrontpage() {
|
||||
const frontpageFull = await pgRead({
|
||||
schema: "latest",
|
||||
tableName: "combined",
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
|
||||
const frontpageSliced = (
|
||||
await client.query(`
|
||||
SELECT * FROM latest.combined
|
||||
WHERE
|
||||
(qualityindicators->>'stars')::int >= 3
|
||||
AND description != ''
|
||||
AND JSON_ARRAY_LENGTH(options) > 0
|
||||
ORDER BY RANDOM() LIMIT 50
|
||||
`)
|
||||
).rows;
|
||||
|
||||
const start = Date.now();
|
||||
await client.query(
|
||||
"INSERT INTO latest.frontpage(frontpage_full, frontpage_sliced) VALUES($1, $2)",
|
||||
[JSON.stringify(frontpageFull), JSON.stringify(frontpageSliced)]
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
const end = Date.now();
|
||||
const difference = end - start;
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import readline from "readline";
|
||||
import 'dotenv/config';
|
||||
|
||||
import { platformFetchers } from "./platforms/all-platforms.js";
|
||||
import { mergeEverything } from "./flow/mergeEverything.js";
|
||||
import { updateHistory } from "./flow/history/updateHistory.js";
|
||||
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from "./utils/algolia.js";
|
||||
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from "./flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData.js";
|
||||
import {
|
||||
pgInitialize,
|
||||
} from "./database/pg-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { doEverything, tryCatchTryAgain } from "./flow/doEverything.js";
|
||||
import readline from 'readline';
|
||||
|
||||
import { pgInitialize } from './database/pg-wrapper';
|
||||
import { doEverything, tryCatchTryAgain } from './flow/doEverything';
|
||||
import { updateHistory } from './flow/history/updateHistory';
|
||||
import { mergeEverything } from './flow/mergeEverything';
|
||||
import { rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData } from './flow/rebuildNetliftySiteWithNewData';
|
||||
import { rebuildFrontpage } from './frontpage';
|
||||
import { platformFetchers } from './platforms/all-platforms';
|
||||
import { rebuildAlgoliaDatabase } from './utils/algolia';
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
let functions = [
|
||||
|
|
@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ let functions = [
|
|||
rebuildNetlifySiteWithNewData,
|
||||
doEverything,
|
||||
pgInitialize,
|
||||
rebuildFrontpage,
|
||||
];
|
||||
let functionNames = functions.map((fun) => fun.name);
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -37,6 +38,7 @@ let generateWhatToDoMessage = () => {
|
|||
// `\n[${functionNames.length-1}]: Add to history` +
|
||||
`All of the above`,
|
||||
`Initialize postgres database`,
|
||||
"Rebuild frontpage",
|
||||
];
|
||||
let otherMessagesWithNums = otherMessages.map(
|
||||
(message, i) => `[${i + l}]: ${message}`
|
||||
12
src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js
Normal file
12
src/backend/manual/manualDownload.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||
import "dotenv/config";
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import { databaseReadWithReadCredentials } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
let main = async () => {
|
||||
let json = await databaseReadWithReadCredentials({ group: "combined" });
|
||||
let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2);
|
||||
let filename = "metaforecasts.json";
|
||||
fs.writeFileSync(filename, string);
|
||||
console.log(`File downloaded to ./${filename}`);
|
||||
};
|
||||
main();
|
||||
3
src/backend/manual/manualInitialize.js
Normal file
3
src/backend/manual/manualInitialize.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
|
|||
import { pgInitialize } from "../database/pg-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
pgInitialize();
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
|
|||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
|
||||
/* This is necessary for estimize, the database of x-risk estimates, and for the OpenPhil/GiveWell predictions. Unlike the others, I'm not fetching them constantly, but only once. */
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -9,10 +9,10 @@ let suffixMongo = "-questions";
|
|||
|
||||
let main = async () => {
|
||||
for (let file of pushManualFiles) {
|
||||
let fileRaw = fs.readFileSync(`./src/input/${file + suffixFiles}`);
|
||||
let fileRaw = fs.readFileSync(`./input/${file + suffixFiles}`);
|
||||
let fileContents = JSON.parse(fileRaw);
|
||||
console.log(fileContents);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({contents: fileContents, group: file });
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: fileContents, group: file });
|
||||
}
|
||||
};
|
||||
main();
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js"
|
||||
import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -8,5 +8,4 @@ import { goodjudgment } from "../platforms/goodjudgment-fetch.js"
|
|||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
goodjudgment()
|
||||
|
||||
goodjudgment();
|
||||
|
|
@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
|
|||
clear
|
||||
echo "
|
||||
Platforms:
|
||||
[0]: IFER
|
||||
[0]: INFER
|
||||
[1]: Good Judgment Open
|
||||
"
|
||||
read -p "Choose a platform [0/1]: " platform
|
||||
|
|
@ -30,8 +30,8 @@ case $platform in
|
|||
echo ""
|
||||
echo "Cookie found:"
|
||||
echo "$cookie"
|
||||
echo "Running: heroku config:set INFER_COOKIE='\$cookie'"
|
||||
heroku config:set INFER_COOKIE="$cookie"
|
||||
echo "Running: netlify env:set INFER_COOKIE '\$cookie'"
|
||||
netlify env:set INFER_COOKIE "$cookie"
|
||||
;;
|
||||
"1" )
|
||||
echo "Platform: Good Judgment Open"
|
||||
|
|
@ -54,8 +54,8 @@ case $platform in
|
|||
echo ""
|
||||
echo "Cookie found:"
|
||||
echo "$cookie"
|
||||
echo "Running: heroku config:set GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE='\$cookie'"
|
||||
heroku config:set GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE="$cookie"
|
||||
echo "Running: netlify env:set GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE '\$cookie'"
|
||||
netlify env:set GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE "$cookie"
|
||||
;;
|
||||
* )
|
||||
echo "Option not in {0,1}, exiting."
|
||||
2
src/backend/platforms/all-platforms.js
Normal file
2
src/backend/platforms/all-platforms.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
|
|||
export { platformFetchers } from "./all/platformFetchers";
|
||||
export { platformNames } from "./all/platformNames";
|
||||
42
src/backend/platforms/all/platformFetchers.js
Normal file
42
src/backend/platforms/all/platformFetchers.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
|
|||
import { betfair } from "../betfair-fetch";
|
||||
import { fantasyscotus } from "../fantasyscotus-fetch";
|
||||
import { foretold } from "../foretold-fetch";
|
||||
import { goodjudgment } from "../goodjudgment-fetch";
|
||||
import { goodjudgmentopen } from "../goodjudmentopen-fetch";
|
||||
import { infer } from "../infer-fetch";
|
||||
import { kalshi } from "../kalshi-fetch";
|
||||
import { manifoldmarkets } from "../manifoldmarkets-fetch";
|
||||
import { metaculus } from "../metaculus-fetch";
|
||||
import { polymarket } from "../polymarket-fetch";
|
||||
import { predictit } from "../predictit-fetch";
|
||||
import { rootclaim } from "../rootclaim-fetch";
|
||||
import { smarkets } from "../smarkets-fetch";
|
||||
import { wildeford } from "../wildeford-fetch";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Deprecated
|
||||
import { astralcodexten } from "../platforms/astralcodexten-fetch"
|
||||
import { coupcast } from "../platforms/coupcast-fetch"
|
||||
import { csetforetell } from "../platforms/csetforetell-fetch"
|
||||
import { elicit } from "../platforms/elicit-fetch"
|
||||
import { estimize } from "../platforms/estimize-fetch"
|
||||
import { hypermind } from "../platforms/hypermind-fetch"
|
||||
import { ladbrokes } from "../platforms/ladbrokes-fetch";
|
||||
import { williamhill } from "../platforms/williamhill-fetch";
|
||||
*/
|
||||
|
||||
export const platformFetchers = [
|
||||
betfair,
|
||||
fantasyscotus,
|
||||
foretold,
|
||||
goodjudgment,
|
||||
goodjudgmentopen,
|
||||
infer,
|
||||
kalshi,
|
||||
manifoldmarkets,
|
||||
metaculus,
|
||||
polymarket,
|
||||
predictit,
|
||||
rootclaim,
|
||||
smarkets,
|
||||
wildeford,
|
||||
];
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,9 +1,8 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import https from "https";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let endpoint = process.env.SECRET_BETFAIR_ENDPOINT;
|
||||
|
|
@ -142,7 +141,6 @@ export async function betfair() {
|
|||
let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
|
||||
// console.log(results.map(result => ({title: result.title, description: result.description})))
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('polyprediction-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "betfair" });
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
97
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/astralcodexten-fetch.js
Normal file
97
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/astralcodexten-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.foretold.io/graphql";
|
||||
let ScottAlexanderPredictions = ["6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637"];
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
async function fetchAllCommunityQuestions(communityId) {
|
||||
let response = await axios({
|
||||
url: graphQLendpoint,
|
||||
method: "POST",
|
||||
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
|
||||
data: JSON.stringify({
|
||||
query: `
|
||||
query {
|
||||
measurables(
|
||||
channelId: "${communityId}",
|
||||
states: OPEN,
|
||||
first: 500
|
||||
){
|
||||
total
|
||||
edges{
|
||||
node{
|
||||
id
|
||||
name
|
||||
valueType
|
||||
measurementCount
|
||||
previousAggregate{
|
||||
value{
|
||||
percentage
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
`,
|
||||
}),
|
||||
})
|
||||
.then((res) => res.data)
|
||||
.then((res) => res.data.measurables.edges);
|
||||
//console.log(response)
|
||||
return response;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
|
||||
export async function astralcodexten() {
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
for (let community of ScottAlexanderPredictions) {
|
||||
let questions = await fetchAllCommunityQuestions(community);
|
||||
questions = questions.map((question) => question.node);
|
||||
questions = questions.filter((question) => question.previousAggregate); // Questions without any predictions
|
||||
questions.forEach((question) => {
|
||||
let options = [];
|
||||
if (question.valueType == "PERCENTAGE") {
|
||||
let probability = question.previousAggregate.value.percentage;
|
||||
options = [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: probability / 100,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: 1 - probability / 100,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
];
|
||||
}
|
||||
let result = {
|
||||
title: question.name.split(". ")[1],
|
||||
url: `https://www.foretold.io/c/${community}/m/${question.id}`,
|
||||
platform: "AstralCodexTen",
|
||||
description: "...by the end of 2021",
|
||||
options: options,
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
numforecasts: Number((question.measurementCount + 1) / 2),
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("AstralCodexTen", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
/*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
|
||||
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
|
||||
address: obj.address*/
|
||||
};
|
||||
// console.log(result)
|
||||
results.push(result);
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "astralcodexten-questions");
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
// astralcodexten()
|
||||
184
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/coupcast-fetch.js
Normal file
184
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/coupcast-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import Papa from "papaparse";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let coupCastEndpoint =
|
||||
"https://www.oneearthfuture.org/sites/all/themes/stability/stability_sub/data/dashboard_2021_code_06.csv";
|
||||
var datenow = new Date();
|
||||
var currentmonth = datenow.getMonth() + 1;
|
||||
dd;
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
let unique = (arr) => [...new Set(arr)];
|
||||
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
|
||||
|
||||
let sanitizeCountryName = (country_name) => {
|
||||
let sanitized_name;
|
||||
switch (country_name) {
|
||||
case "Cen African Rep":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "Central African Republic";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Congo-Brz":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "Republic of the Congo";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Congo/Zaire":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "Democratic Republic of the Congo";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Czech Rep":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "Czech Republic";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Dominican Rep":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "Dominican Republic";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Korea North":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "North Korea";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Korea South":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "South Korea";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "UKG":
|
||||
sanitized_name = "UK";
|
||||
break;
|
||||
default:
|
||||
sanitized_name = country_name;
|
||||
}
|
||||
return sanitized_name;
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
async function processArray(countryArray) {
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
for (let country of countryArray) {
|
||||
let url = `https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast`;
|
||||
|
||||
// We don't really want the prediction for all months; one is enough
|
||||
// console.log(country.month)
|
||||
if (Number(country.month) == currentmonth) {
|
||||
// Monthly
|
||||
country.country_name = sanitizeCountryName(country.country_name);
|
||||
let processedPrediction1 = {
|
||||
title: `Will there be a coup in ${country.country_name} in the next month (as of ${country.month}/${country.year})?`,
|
||||
url: url,
|
||||
platform: "CoupCast",
|
||||
description: `The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${
|
||||
country.leader_name
|
||||
}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(
|
||||
1
|
||||
)} years. ${
|
||||
country.country_name
|
||||
} has a ${country.regime_type.toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${
|
||||
country.regime_years
|
||||
} years.`,
|
||||
options: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: country.month_risk,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: 1 - country.month_risk,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("Coupcast", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
extra: {
|
||||
country_name: country.country_name,
|
||||
regime_type: country.regime_type,
|
||||
month: country.month,
|
||||
year: country.year,
|
||||
leader_name: country.leader_name,
|
||||
month_risk: country.month_risk,
|
||||
annual_risk: country.annual_risk,
|
||||
risk_change_percent: country.risk_change_percent,
|
||||
regime_years: country.regime_years,
|
||||
leader_years: country.leader_years,
|
||||
country_code: country.country_code,
|
||||
country_abb: country.country_abb,
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// Yearly
|
||||
let processedPrediction2 = {
|
||||
title: `Will there be a coup in ${country.country_name} in the next year (as of ${country.month}/${country.year})?`,
|
||||
url: url,
|
||||
platform: "CoupCast",
|
||||
description: `The current leader of ${country.country_name} is ${
|
||||
country.leader_name
|
||||
}, who has been in power for ${Number(country.leader_years).toFixed(
|
||||
1
|
||||
)} years. ${
|
||||
country.country_name
|
||||
} has a ${country.regime_type.toLowerCase()} regime type which has lasted for ${
|
||||
country.regime_years
|
||||
} years`,
|
||||
options: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: country.annual_risk,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: 1 - country.annual_risk,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("CoupCast", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
extra: {
|
||||
country_name: country.country_name,
|
||||
regime_type: country.regime_type,
|
||||
month: country.month,
|
||||
year: country.year,
|
||||
leader_name: country.leader_name,
|
||||
month_risk: country.month_risk,
|
||||
annual_risk: country.annual_risk,
|
||||
risk_change_percent: country.risk_change_percent,
|
||||
regime_years: country.regime_years,
|
||||
leader_years: country.leader_years,
|
||||
country_code: country.country_code,
|
||||
country_abb: country.country_abb,
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// results.push(processedPrediction1)
|
||||
// Not pushing monthly
|
||||
results.push(processedPrediction2);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "coupcast-questions");
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
|
||||
export async function coupcast() {
|
||||
let csvContent = await axios
|
||||
.get(coupCastEndpoint)
|
||||
.then((query) => query.data);
|
||||
await Papa.parse(csvContent, {
|
||||
header: true,
|
||||
complete: async (results) => {
|
||||
console.log("Downloaded", results.data.length, "records.");
|
||||
/* console.log(
|
||||
JSON.stringify(
|
||||
unique(results.data.map(country => country.country_name)),
|
||||
null,
|
||||
4
|
||||
)
|
||||
)*/
|
||||
// console.log(results.data)
|
||||
await processArray(results.data);
|
||||
},
|
||||
});
|
||||
await sleep(1000); // needed to wait for Papaparse's callback to be executed.
|
||||
}
|
||||
// coupcast()
|
||||
280
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/csetforetell-fetch.js
Normal file
280
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/csetforetell-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,280 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions?page=";
|
||||
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
|
||||
return this.split(search).join(replace);
|
||||
};
|
||||
const DEBUG_MODE = "on"; // "off"
|
||||
const SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM = 100; //5000 // miliseconds
|
||||
const SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA = 0; //1000
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetchPage(page, cookie) {
|
||||
console.log(`Page #${page}`);
|
||||
if (page == 1) {
|
||||
cookie = cookie.split(";")[0]; // Interesting that it otherwise doesn't work :(
|
||||
}
|
||||
let urlEndpoint = htmlEndPoint + page;
|
||||
console.log(urlEndpoint);
|
||||
let response = await axios({
|
||||
url: urlEndpoint,
|
||||
method: "GET",
|
||||
headers: {
|
||||
"Content-Type": "text/html",
|
||||
Cookie: cookie,
|
||||
},
|
||||
}).then((res) => res.data);
|
||||
// console.log(response)
|
||||
return response;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
|
||||
let response = await axios({
|
||||
url: questionUrl + "/stats",
|
||||
method: "GET",
|
||||
headers: {
|
||||
"Content-Type": "text/html",
|
||||
Cookie: cookie,
|
||||
Referer: questionUrl,
|
||||
},
|
||||
}).then((res) => res.data);
|
||||
|
||||
if (response.includes("Sign up or sign in to forecast")) {
|
||||
throw Error("Not logged in");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Is binary?
|
||||
let isbinary = response.includes("binary?":true");
|
||||
// console.log(`is binary? ${isbinary}`)
|
||||
let options = [];
|
||||
if (isbinary) {
|
||||
// Crowd percentage
|
||||
let htmlElements = response.split("\n");
|
||||
// DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? htmlLines.forEach(line => console.log(line)) : id()
|
||||
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter((str) => str.includes("<h3>"))[0];
|
||||
// DEBUG_MODE == "on" ? console.log(h5elements) : id()
|
||||
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0];
|
||||
let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100;
|
||||
options.push(
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: +(1 - probability).toFixed(2), // avoids floating point shenanigans
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
}
|
||||
);
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
try {
|
||||
let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[1]; // Previously [1], then previously [3] but they added a new table.
|
||||
// console.log(optionsBody)
|
||||
let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + optionsBody + "table>";
|
||||
let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
|
||||
let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
|
||||
options = firstTable.map((element) => ({
|
||||
name: element["0"],
|
||||
probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
}));
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
let optionsBody = response.split("tbody")[3]; // Catch if the error is related to table position
|
||||
let optionsHtmlElement = "<table" + optionsBody + "table>";
|
||||
let tablesAsJson = Tabletojson.convert(optionsHtmlElement);
|
||||
let firstTable = tablesAsJson[0];
|
||||
if (firstTable) {
|
||||
options = firstTable.map((element) => ({
|
||||
name: element["0"],
|
||||
probability: Number(element["1"].replace("%", "")) / 100,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
}));
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
// New type of question, tricky to parse the options
|
||||
// Just leave options = [] for now.
|
||||
// https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
// Description
|
||||
let descriptionraw = response.split(`<meta name="description" content="`)[1];
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`">`)[0];
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replace(">", "");
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace(
|
||||
"To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.",
|
||||
``
|
||||
);
|
||||
// console.log(descriptionprocessed3)
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replaceAll(
|
||||
"\r\n\r\n",
|
||||
"\n"
|
||||
);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n");
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed6 = descriptionprocessed5.replaceAll(""", `"`);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed7 = descriptionprocessed6.replaceAll("'", "'");
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed8 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed7);
|
||||
let description = descriptionprocessed8;
|
||||
|
||||
// Number of forecasts
|
||||
//console.log(response)
|
||||
//console.log(response.split("prediction_sets_count":")[1])
|
||||
let numforecasts = response
|
||||
.split("prediction_sets_count":")[1]
|
||||
.split(",")[0];
|
||||
// console.log(numforecasts)
|
||||
|
||||
// Number of predictors
|
||||
let numforecasters = response
|
||||
.split("predictors_count":")[1]
|
||||
.split(",")[0];
|
||||
// console.log(numpredictors)
|
||||
|
||||
let result = {
|
||||
description: description,
|
||||
options: options,
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
|
||||
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("CSET-foretell", { numforecasts }),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
return result;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function isSignedIn(html) {
|
||||
let isSignedInBool = !(
|
||||
html.includes("You need to sign in or sign up before continuing") ||
|
||||
html.includes("Sign up")
|
||||
);
|
||||
if (!isSignedInBool) {
|
||||
console.log("Error: Not signed in.");
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(`Signed in? ${isSignedInBool}`);
|
||||
return isSignedInBool;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function isEnd(html) {
|
||||
let isEndBool = html.includes("No questions match your filter");
|
||||
if (isEndBool) {
|
||||
//console.log(html)
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(`IsEnd? ${isEndBool}`);
|
||||
return isEndBool;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function sleep(ms) {
|
||||
return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
|
||||
async function csetforetell_inner(cookie) {
|
||||
let i = 1;
|
||||
let response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
let init = Date.now();
|
||||
// console.log("Downloading... This might take a couple of minutes. Results will be shown.")
|
||||
while (!isEnd(response) && isSignedIn(response)) {
|
||||
let htmlLines = response.split("\n");
|
||||
// let h4elements = htmlLines.filter(str => str.includes("<h5> <a href=") || str.includes("<h4> <a href="))
|
||||
let questionHrefs = htmlLines.filter((str) =>
|
||||
str.includes("https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/")
|
||||
);
|
||||
// console.log(questionHrefs)
|
||||
|
||||
if (process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
|
||||
//console.log(response)
|
||||
console.log("questionHrefs: ");
|
||||
console.log(questionHrefs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
//console.log("")
|
||||
//console.log("")
|
||||
//console.log(h4elements)
|
||||
|
||||
for (let questionHref of questionHrefs) {
|
||||
//console.log(h4element)
|
||||
|
||||
let elementSplit = questionHref.split('"><span>');
|
||||
let url = elementSplit[0].split('<a href="')[1];
|
||||
let title = elementSplit[1]
|
||||
.replace("</h4>", "")
|
||||
.replace("</h5>", "")
|
||||
.replace("</span></a>", "");
|
||||
await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA); // don't be as noticeable
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
let moreinfo = await fetchStats(url, cookie);
|
||||
let question = {
|
||||
title: title,
|
||||
url: url,
|
||||
platform: "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
...moreinfo,
|
||||
};
|
||||
if (
|
||||
i % 30 == 0 &&
|
||||
!(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on")
|
||||
) {
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Page #${i}` &&
|
||||
!(process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on")
|
||||
);
|
||||
console.log(question);
|
||||
}
|
||||
results.push(question);
|
||||
if (process.env.DEBUG_MODE == "on" || DEBUG_MODE == "on") {
|
||||
console.log(url);
|
||||
console.log(question);
|
||||
}
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
console.log(error);
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`We encountered some error when fetching the URL: ${url}, so it won't appear on the final json`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
i++;
|
||||
//i=Number(i)+1
|
||||
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
"Sleeping for ~5secs so as to not be as noticeable to the cset-foretell servers"
|
||||
);
|
||||
await sleep(Math.random() * SLEEP_TIME_RANDOM + SLEEP_TIME_EXTRA); // don't be as noticeable
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
response = await fetchPage(i, cookie);
|
||||
} catch (error) {
|
||||
console.log(error);
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`The program encountered some error when fetching page #${i}, so it won't appear on the final json. It is possible that this page wasn't actually a prediction question pages`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (results.length > 0) {
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "csetforetell-questions");
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log("Not updating results, as process was not signed in");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
let end = Date.now();
|
||||
let difference = end - init;
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
`Took ${difference / 1000} seconds, or ${difference / (1000 * 60)} minutes.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function csetforetell() {
|
||||
let cookie = process.env.CSETFORETELL_COOKIE;
|
||||
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, csetforetell_inner);
|
||||
}
|
||||
121
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/elicit-fetch.js
Normal file
121
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/elicit-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import Papa from "papaparse";
|
||||
import readline from "readline";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let elicitEndpoint =
|
||||
"https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
let avg = (array) =>
|
||||
array.reduce((a, b) => Number(a) + Number(b)) / array.length;
|
||||
let unique = (arr) => [...new Set(arr)];
|
||||
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
|
||||
|
||||
async function processArray(arrayQuestions) {
|
||||
let questions = arrayQuestions.map((question) => question.questionTitle);
|
||||
let uniqueQuestions = unique(questions);
|
||||
let questionsObj = {};
|
||||
uniqueQuestions.forEach((questionTitle) => {
|
||||
questionsObj[questionTitle] = {
|
||||
title: questionTitle,
|
||||
forecasters: [],
|
||||
forecasts: [],
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
arrayQuestions.forEach((question) => {
|
||||
// console.log(question.questionTitle)
|
||||
let questionTitle = question.questionTitle;
|
||||
let correspondingQuestion = questionsObj[questionTitle];
|
||||
let forecasters = correspondingQuestion.forecasters.concat(
|
||||
question.predictionCreator
|
||||
);
|
||||
let forecasts = correspondingQuestion.forecasts.concat(question.prediction);
|
||||
questionsObj[questionTitle] = {
|
||||
forecasters,
|
||||
forecasts,
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
let onlyQuestionsWithMoreThan;
|
||||
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
for (let question in questionsObj) {
|
||||
let title = question;
|
||||
|
||||
let forecasters = questionsObj[question].forecasters;
|
||||
|
||||
let numforecasters = unique(forecasters).length;
|
||||
if (numforecasters >= 10) {
|
||||
let url = `https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=${title.replace(
|
||||
/ /g,
|
||||
"%20"
|
||||
)}&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0`;
|
||||
let forecasts = questionsObj[question].forecasts;
|
||||
|
||||
//console.log(forecasts)
|
||||
//console.log(avg(forecasts))
|
||||
let probability = avg(forecasts) / 100;
|
||||
let numforecasts = forecasts.length;
|
||||
let standardObj = {
|
||||
title: title,
|
||||
url: url,
|
||||
platform: "Elicit",
|
||||
options: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: 1 - probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
numforecasts: Number(numforecasts),
|
||||
numforecasters: Number(numforecasters),
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("Elicit", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
results.push(standardObj);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "elicit-questions");
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function awaitdownloadconfirmation(message, callback) {
|
||||
const rl = readline.createInterface({
|
||||
input: process.stdin,
|
||||
output: process.stdout,
|
||||
});
|
||||
rl.question(message, (answer) => {
|
||||
//console.log("Received");
|
||||
rl.close();
|
||||
|
||||
callback();
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
|
||||
export async function elicit() {
|
||||
let csvContent = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint).then((query) => query.data);
|
||||
await Papa.parse(csvContent, {
|
||||
header: true,
|
||||
complete: async (results) => {
|
||||
console.log("Downloaded", results.data.length, "records.");
|
||||
//resolve(results.data);
|
||||
//console.log(results.data)
|
||||
await processArray(results.data);
|
||||
},
|
||||
});
|
||||
await sleep(5000); // needed to wait for Papaparse's callback to be executed.
|
||||
}
|
||||
//elicit()
|
||||
35
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/estimize-fetch.js
Normal file
35
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/estimize-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
|
|||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
export async function estimize() {
|
||||
let data = fs.readFileSync(
|
||||
"./input/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv",
|
||||
"utf8"
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
let splitData = data.split("\n");
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
for (let datum of splitData) {
|
||||
if (datum != "") {
|
||||
//console.log(datum)
|
||||
let datumSplit = datum.split(",");
|
||||
let companyStickerSymbol = datumSplit[0];
|
||||
let companyName = datumSplit[1];
|
||||
let standardObj = {
|
||||
title: `Estimates for ${companyName} (${companyStickerSymbol})`,
|
||||
url: `https://www.estimize.com/${companyStickerSymbol.toLowerCase()}`,
|
||||
platform: "Estimize",
|
||||
description: `A link to Estimize's forecasts for *${companyName}* (sticker symbol ${companyStickerSymbol}). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free`,
|
||||
options: [],
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("Estimize", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
results.push(standardObj);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "estimize-questions");
|
||||
}
|
||||
//estimize()
|
||||
201
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/hypermind-fetch.js
Normal file
201
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/hypermind-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import https from "https";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let hypermindEnpoint1 = "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/jsx.json";
|
||||
let hypermindEnpoint2 = "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp-jsx/jsx.json";
|
||||
const insecureHttpsAgent = new https.Agent({
|
||||
rejectUnauthorized: false, // (NOTE: this will disable client verification)
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support Functions */
|
||||
String.prototype.replaceAll = function replaceAll(search, replace) {
|
||||
return this.split(search).join(replace);
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
function sleep(ms) {
|
||||
return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Fetchers */
|
||||
async function fetchHypermindData1(slug) {
|
||||
let jsx = `jsx=%5B%5B%22dataMgr%22%2C%22getGQList%22%2C%7B%22listName%22%3A%20%22${slug}%22%2C%22format%22%3A%20%7B%22props%22%3A%20true%2C%22posts%22%3A%20true%2C%22cond%22%3A%20%7B%22props%22%3A%20true%2C%22otcm%22%3A%20%7B%22tradingHistory%22%3A%20true%2C%22props%22%3A%20true%7D%7D%2C%22otcm%22%3A%20%7B%22tradingHistory%22%3A%20true%2C%22props%22%3A%20true%7D%7D%7D%5D%5D`;
|
||||
// console.log(jsx)
|
||||
let response = await await axios(hypermindEnpoint1, {
|
||||
credentials: "omit",
|
||||
headers: {
|
||||
"User-Agent":
|
||||
"Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Ubuntu; Linux x86_64; rv:90.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/90.0",
|
||||
Accept:
|
||||
"text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,image/webp,*/*;q=0.8",
|
||||
"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
|
||||
"Content-Type": "application/x-www-form-urlencoded; charset=UTF-8",
|
||||
"Upgrade-Insecure-Requests": "1",
|
||||
"Sec-Fetch-Dest": "document",
|
||||
"Sec-Fetch-Mode": "navigate",
|
||||
"Sec-Fetch-Site": "none",
|
||||
"Sec-Fetch-User": "?1",
|
||||
"Cache-Control": "max-age=0",
|
||||
},
|
||||
referrer: `https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=${slug}`,
|
||||
data: jsx,
|
||||
method: "POST",
|
||||
mode: "cors",
|
||||
httpsAgent: insecureHttpsAgent,
|
||||
}).then((response) => response.data[0].questions);
|
||||
//console.log(response)
|
||||
return response;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetchHypermindDataShowcases(slug, cookie) {
|
||||
let response = await axios(hypermindEnpoint2, {
|
||||
credentials: "include",
|
||||
headers: {
|
||||
"User-Agent": "",
|
||||
Accept: "*/*",
|
||||
"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
|
||||
"Content-Type": "application/json; charset=UTF-8",
|
||||
//"Cookie": cookie
|
||||
},
|
||||
referrer:
|
||||
"https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html?inFrame=true",
|
||||
data: `[["showcase","getShowcase",{"showcase":"${slug}","fmt":{"fcsterCnt":true,"crowdFcst":true,"crowdFcstHist":false}}]]`,
|
||||
method: "POST",
|
||||
mode: "cors",
|
||||
httpsAgent: insecureHttpsAgent,
|
||||
})
|
||||
.then((resp) => resp.data[0].items)
|
||||
.then((items) => items.filter((item) => item.type == "IFP"))
|
||||
.then((items) => items.map((item) => item.IFP));
|
||||
|
||||
// console.log(response)
|
||||
// response.forEach(item => delete item.crowdFcstHist)
|
||||
return response;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
async function hypermind_inner(cookie) {
|
||||
// Hypermind panelists and competitors; dashboard type two: "showcase"
|
||||
// https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=SLUG
|
||||
// E.g., https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=AI2023
|
||||
let slugs2 = ["AI2030", "Covid19", "DOSES", "H5N8", "NGDP", "JSAI", "AI2023"]; // []
|
||||
let results2 = [];
|
||||
for (let slug of slugs2) {
|
||||
console.log(slug);
|
||||
await sleep(1000 + Math.random() * 1000);
|
||||
let response = await fetchHypermindDataShowcases(slug);
|
||||
let objs = response.map((result) => {
|
||||
let descriptionraw = result.props.details.split("<hr size=1>")[0];
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed1 = toMarkdown(descriptionraw);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replaceAll(
|
||||
"![image] ()",
|
||||
""
|
||||
);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replaceAll(
|
||||
" Forecasting Schedule ",
|
||||
""
|
||||
);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3
|
||||
.replaceAll("\n", " ")
|
||||
.replaceAll(" ", " ");
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll(
|
||||
"Context:",
|
||||
""
|
||||
);
|
||||
let description =
|
||||
descriptionprocessed5 || toMarkdown(result.props.details);
|
||||
return {
|
||||
title: result.props.title,
|
||||
url:
|
||||
"https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/fr/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=" +
|
||||
slug,
|
||||
platform: "Hypermind",
|
||||
description: description,
|
||||
options: [],
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("Hypermind", {}),
|
||||
numforecasters: Number(result.fcsterCnt),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
// console.log(objs)
|
||||
results2.push(...objs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Prediction markets; dashboard type one.
|
||||
// https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=SLUG
|
||||
// e.g., https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL
|
||||
let slugs1 = ["USA", "FRA", "AFR", "INT", "COV", "POL", "ECO"]; // []
|
||||
let results1 = [];
|
||||
|
||||
for (let slug of slugs1) {
|
||||
console.log(slug);
|
||||
await sleep(2000 + Math.random() * 2000);
|
||||
let result = await fetchHypermindData1(slug);
|
||||
let objs = result.map((res) => {
|
||||
let descriptionraw = res.props.details;
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("%%fr")[0];
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replaceAll(
|
||||
"<BR>",
|
||||
"\n"
|
||||
);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("%%en:", "");
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replace(
|
||||
`Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100<sup>ℍ</sup>, while the others will be worthless (0<sup>ℍ</sup>).<p>`,
|
||||
""
|
||||
);
|
||||
let descriptionprocessed5 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed4);
|
||||
let description = descriptionprocessed5
|
||||
.replaceAll("\n", " ")
|
||||
.replaceAll(" ", " ");
|
||||
//console.log(res.otcms)
|
||||
//let percentage = (res.otcms.length==2) ? Number(res.otcms[0].price).toFixed(0) +"%" : "none"
|
||||
let options = res.otcms.map((option) => ({
|
||||
name: option.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replaceAll("%%en:", ""),
|
||||
probability: Number(option.price) / 100,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
}));
|
||||
return {
|
||||
title: res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
|
||||
url: "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=" + slug,
|
||||
platform: "Hypermind",
|
||||
description: description,
|
||||
options: options,
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("Hypermind", {}),
|
||||
// "numforecasters": res.fcsterCnt
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
// console.log(objs)
|
||||
results1.push(...objs);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
let resultsTotal = [...results1, ...results2];
|
||||
|
||||
let distinctTitles = [];
|
||||
let resultsTotalUnique = [];
|
||||
for (let result of resultsTotal) {
|
||||
if (!distinctTitles.includes(result["title"])) {
|
||||
resultsTotalUnique.push(result);
|
||||
distinctTitles.push(result["title"]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
// console.log(resultsTotal)
|
||||
// console.log(resultsTotalUnique)
|
||||
console.log(resultsTotalUnique.length, "results");
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(resultsTotalUnique, "hypermind-questions");
|
||||
}
|
||||
//hypermind()
|
||||
|
||||
export async function hypermind() {
|
||||
let cookie = process.env.HYPERMINDCOOKIE;
|
||||
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, hypermind_inner);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,8 +1,7 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let endpointPolitics = `https://ss-aka-ori.ladbrokes.com/openbet-ssviewer/Drilldown/2.31/EventToOutcomeForClass/302,301,300?simpleFilter=event.siteChannels:contains:M&simpleFilter=event.eventSortCode:intersects:TNMT,TR01,TR02,TR03,TR04,TR05,TR06,TR07,TR08,TR09,TR10,TR11,TR12,TR13,TR14,TR15,TR16,TR17,TR18,TR19,TR20&simpleFilter=event.suspendAtTime:greaterThan:${new Date().toISOString()}.000Z&limitRecords=outcome:1&limitRecords=market:1&translationLang=en&responseFormat=json&prune=event&prune=market`;
|
||||
|
|
@ -137,9 +136,6 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
|
|||
export async function ladbrokes() {
|
||||
let response = await fetchUrl(endpointPolitics);
|
||||
let results = await processResults(response);
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/ladbrokes-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "ladbrokes-questions");
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
97
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/omen-fetch.js
Normal file
97
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/omen-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen";
|
||||
// "https://gateway.thegraph.com/api/[api-key]/subgraphs/id/0x0503024fcc5e1bd834530e69d592dbb6e8c03968-0"
|
||||
// 'https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen'
|
||||
// https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph
|
||||
// https://thegraph.com/explorer/subgraph/protofire/omen
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractData() {
|
||||
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now() / (1000 * 24 * 60 * 60)) - 50; // last 30 days
|
||||
let response = await axios({
|
||||
url: graphQLendpoint,
|
||||
method: "POST",
|
||||
headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" },
|
||||
data: JSON.stringify({
|
||||
query: `
|
||||
{
|
||||
fixedProductMarketMakers(first: 1000,
|
||||
where: {
|
||||
lastActiveDay_gt: ${daysSinceEra}
|
||||
}
|
||||
){
|
||||
id
|
||||
lastActiveDay
|
||||
question{
|
||||
title
|
||||
}
|
||||
outcomeSlotCount
|
||||
outcomeTokenMarginalPrices
|
||||
usdVolume
|
||||
usdLiquidityMeasure
|
||||
resolutionTimestamp
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
`,
|
||||
}),
|
||||
})
|
||||
.then((res) => res.data)
|
||||
.then((res) => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers);
|
||||
console.log(response);
|
||||
return response;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetch_all() {
|
||||
let allData = await fetchAllContractData();
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
for (let data of allData) {
|
||||
if (
|
||||
(data.question != null) &
|
||||
(data.usdLiquidityMeasure != "0") &
|
||||
(data.resolutionTimestamp == null) &
|
||||
(data.question.title != "ssdds")
|
||||
) {
|
||||
// console.log(data)
|
||||
// console.log(data.usdLiquidityMeasure)
|
||||
let options = data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.map((price, slotnum) => {
|
||||
let name = `Option ${slotnum}`;
|
||||
if (data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.length == 2 && slotnum == 0)
|
||||
name = "Yes";
|
||||
if (data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices.length == 2 && slotnum == 1)
|
||||
name = "No";
|
||||
return {
|
||||
name: name,
|
||||
probability: Number(price),
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
let obj = {
|
||||
title: data.question.title,
|
||||
url: "https://omen.eth.link/#/" + data.id,
|
||||
platform: "Omen",
|
||||
description: "",
|
||||
options: options,
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("Omen", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
// console.log(obj)
|
||||
results.push(obj);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
return results;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
export async function omen() {
|
||||
let results = await fetch_all();
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "omen-questions");
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
//omen()
|
||||
147
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/williamhill-fetch.js
Normal file
147
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/williamhill-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../utils/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let endpoint = "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics";
|
||||
|
||||
// <header class="header-dropdown header-dropdown--large -expanded" data-id="
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
async function fetchUrl(url) {
|
||||
let response = await axios(url, {
|
||||
credentials: "include",
|
||||
headers: {
|
||||
"User-Agent":
|
||||
"Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Ubuntu; Linux x86_64; rv:86.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/86.0",
|
||||
Accept:
|
||||
"text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,image/webp,*/*;q=0.8",
|
||||
"Accept-Language": "en-US,en;q=0.5",
|
||||
"Upgrade-Insecure-Requests": "1",
|
||||
"Cache-Control": "max-age=0",
|
||||
},
|
||||
method: "GET",
|
||||
mode: "cors",
|
||||
}).then((response) => response.data);
|
||||
return response;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
let processResults = (html) => {
|
||||
let results = [];
|
||||
|
||||
let chunks = html.split(
|
||||
'<header class="header-dropdown header-dropdown--large -expanded" data-id="'
|
||||
);
|
||||
chunks.shift();
|
||||
|
||||
// Kamala Special
|
||||
let kamalaspecial = chunks[0];
|
||||
let kamalamarkets = kamalaspecial.split(
|
||||
'<div class="btmarket__selection"><p class="btmarket__name"><span>'
|
||||
);
|
||||
kamalamarkets.shift();
|
||||
for (let kamalamarket of kamalamarkets) {
|
||||
let title = kamalamarket.split("</span>")[0];
|
||||
let numerator = Number(kamalamarket.split('data-num="')[1].split('"')[0]);
|
||||
let denominator = Number(
|
||||
kamalamarket.split('data-denom="')[1].split('"')[0]
|
||||
);
|
||||
let probability = denominator / (numerator + denominator);
|
||||
let obj = {
|
||||
title: title,
|
||||
url: "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
|
||||
platform: "WilliamHill",
|
||||
description: "",
|
||||
timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
|
||||
options: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "Yes",
|
||||
probability: probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: "No",
|
||||
probability: 1 - probability,
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("WilliamHill", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
results.push(obj);
|
||||
}
|
||||
chunks.shift();
|
||||
|
||||
// Deal with the other markets
|
||||
for (let chunk of chunks) {
|
||||
let title = chunk.split('"')[0];
|
||||
let title2 = chunk.split('<a title="')[1].split('"')[0];
|
||||
title = title.length > title2.length ? title : title2;
|
||||
|
||||
let options = [];
|
||||
let alternatives = chunk.split(
|
||||
'<div class="btmarket__selection"><p class="btmarket__name"><span>'
|
||||
);
|
||||
alternatives.shift();
|
||||
for (let alternative of alternatives) {
|
||||
let optionName = alternative.split("</span>")[0];
|
||||
let numerator = Number(alternative.split('data-num="')[1].split('"')[0]);
|
||||
let denominator = Number(
|
||||
alternative.split('data-denom="')[1].split('"')[0]
|
||||
);
|
||||
let option = {
|
||||
name: optionName,
|
||||
probability: denominator / (numerator + denominator),
|
||||
type: "PROBABILITY",
|
||||
};
|
||||
options.push(option);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// normalize probabilities
|
||||
let totalValue = options
|
||||
.map((element) => Number(element.probability))
|
||||
.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
|
||||
options = options.map((element) => ({
|
||||
...element,
|
||||
probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue,
|
||||
}));
|
||||
// Filter very unlikely probabilities: Not here, but on the front end
|
||||
// options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02)
|
||||
|
||||
let obj = {
|
||||
title: title,
|
||||
url: "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
|
||||
platform: "WilliamHill",
|
||||
options: options,
|
||||
qualityindicators: {
|
||||
stars: calculateStars("WilliamHill", {}),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
results = results.filter(
|
||||
(result) => result.title.length > 4 && result.title != "2024 or later"
|
||||
);
|
||||
// removes some predictions because hard to parse.
|
||||
results.push(obj);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
//console.log(results)
|
||||
return results;
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
let processhtml2 = (html) => {
|
||||
html.split();
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
export async function williamhill() {
|
||||
let response = await fetchUrl(
|
||||
"https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics"
|
||||
);
|
||||
let results = processResults(response);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert(results, "williamhill-questions");
|
||||
console.log(results.sort((a, b) => a.title > b.title));
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
//williamhill()
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,9 +1,7 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let endpoint = "https://example.com/";
|
||||
|
|
@ -63,7 +61,6 @@ export async function example() {
|
|||
let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('polyprediction-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "example" });
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,8 +1,7 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let unixtime = new Date().getTime();
|
||||
|
|
@ -115,9 +114,6 @@ async function processData(data) {
|
|||
export async function fantasyscotus() {
|
||||
let rawData = await fetchData();
|
||||
let results = await processData(rawData);
|
||||
//console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/fantasyscotus-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "fantasyscotus" });
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,8 +1,7 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let graphQLendpoint = "https://api.foretold.io/graphql";
|
||||
|
|
@ -99,8 +98,6 @@ export async function foretold() {
|
|||
results.push(result);
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/foretold-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "foretold" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,12 +1,8 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let locationData = "./data/";
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
async function fetchPage(url) {
|
||||
|
|
@ -24,7 +20,7 @@ async function fetchPage(url) {
|
|||
/* Body */
|
||||
|
||||
async function main1() {
|
||||
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./src/input/givewellopenphil-urls.txt");
|
||||
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./input/givewellopenphil-urls.txt");
|
||||
let data = rawdata
|
||||
.toString()
|
||||
.split("\n")
|
||||
|
|
@ -62,8 +58,6 @@ async function main1() {
|
|||
// console.log(result)
|
||||
results.push(result);
|
||||
}
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/givewell-questions-unprocessed.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({
|
||||
contents: results,
|
||||
group: "givewell-questions-unprocessed",
|
||||
|
|
@ -72,10 +66,12 @@ async function main1() {
|
|||
// main1()
|
||||
|
||||
async function main2() {
|
||||
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./src/input/givewellopenphil-questions.json");
|
||||
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./input/givewellopenphil-questions.json");
|
||||
let data = JSON.parse(rawdata);
|
||||
let dataWithDate = data.map(datum => ({...datum, timestamp: '2021-02-23'}))
|
||||
let dataWithDate = data.map((datum) => ({
|
||||
...datum,
|
||||
timestamp: "2021-02-23",
|
||||
}));
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ group: "givewellopenphil", contents: dataWithDate });
|
||||
}
|
||||
main2();
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,12 +1,10 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import tunnel from "tunnel";
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { hash } from "../utils/hash.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import tunnel from "tunnel";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { hash } from "../utils/hash";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let endpoint = "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/";
|
||||
|
|
@ -119,8 +117,6 @@ export async function goodjudgment() {
|
|||
}
|
||||
// console.log(results.slice(0,10))
|
||||
let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2);
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/goodjudgment-questions.json', string);
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./goodjudgment-questions-test.json', string);
|
||||
console.log(results);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "goodjudgment" });
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,11 +1,10 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { getSecret, applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
|
||||
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions?page=";
|
||||
|
|
@ -219,12 +218,9 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
|
|||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json', string);
|
||||
console.log(results);
|
||||
if (results.length > 0) {
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "goodjudmentopen" });
|
||||
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
console.log("Not updating results, as process was not signed in");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -237,7 +233,6 @@ async function goodjudgmentopen_inner(cookie) {
|
|||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function goodjudgmentopen() {
|
||||
let cookie =
|
||||
process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE || getSecret("goodjudmentopen");
|
||||
let cookie = process.env.GOODJUDGMENTOPENCOOKIE;
|
||||
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, goodjudgmentopen_inner);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { getSecret, applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets.js";
|
||||
import { Tabletojson } from "tabletojson";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { applyIfSecretExists } from "../utils/getSecrets";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let htmlEndPoint = "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions";
|
||||
|
|
@ -265,9 +265,6 @@ async function infer_inner(cookie) {
|
|||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/infer-questions.json', string);
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
if (results.length > 0) {
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "infer" });
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
|
|
@ -282,6 +279,6 @@ async function infer_inner(cookie) {
|
|||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function infer() {
|
||||
let cookie = process.env.INFER_COOKIE || getSecret("infer");
|
||||
let cookie = process.env.INFER_COOKIE;
|
||||
await applyIfSecretExists(cookie, infer_inner);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,19 +1,11 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let jsonEndpoint = "https://trading-api.kalshi.com/v1/cached/markets/"; //"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let data = fs.readFileSync("./data/polymarket-contract-list.json")
|
||||
let response = JSON.parse(data)
|
||||
return response
|
||||
}
|
||||
*/
|
||||
async function fetchAllMarkets() {
|
||||
// for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let response = await axios
|
||||
|
|
@ -80,9 +72,6 @@ async function processMarkets(markets) {
|
|||
export async function kalshi() {
|
||||
let markets = await fetchAllMarkets();
|
||||
let results = await processMarkets(markets); // somehow needed
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('polymarket-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "kalshi" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,8 +1,7 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let endpoint = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets";
|
||||
|
|
@ -94,9 +93,6 @@ export async function manifoldmarkets() {
|
|||
let data = await fetchData();
|
||||
let results = await processPredictions(data); // somehow needed
|
||||
showStatistics(results);
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('polyprediction-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "manifoldmarkets" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,9 +1,8 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let jsonEndPoint = "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?page=";
|
||||
|
|
@ -190,8 +189,6 @@ export async function metaculus() {
|
|||
i = i + 1;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(all_questions, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./metaculus-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: all_questions, group: "metaculus" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,21 +1,13 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let graphQLendpoint =
|
||||
"https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-5"; // "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/matic-markets-4"// "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/tokenunion/polymarket-matic"//"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
|
||||
let units = 10 ** 6;
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let data = fs.readFileSync("./data/polymarket-contract-list.json")
|
||||
let response = JSON.parse(data)
|
||||
return response
|
||||
}
|
||||
*/
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractInfo() {
|
||||
// for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let response = await axios
|
||||
|
|
@ -149,9 +141,6 @@ async function fetch_all() {
|
|||
/* Body */
|
||||
export async function polymarket() {
|
||||
let results = await fetch_all();
|
||||
// console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('polymarket-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "polymarket" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,9 +1,8 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
async function fetchmarkets() {
|
||||
|
|
@ -107,9 +106,6 @@ export async function predictit() {
|
|||
// console.log(obj)
|
||||
results.push(obj);
|
||||
}
|
||||
//console.log(results)
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('./data/predictit-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "predictit" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,21 +1,13 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs";
|
||||
import axios from "axios";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown.js";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
|
||||
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper";
|
||||
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars";
|
||||
import toMarkdown from "../utils/toMarkdown";
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let jsonEndpoint =
|
||||
"https://www.rootclaim.com/main_page_stories?number=100&offset=0"; //"https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//"https://subgraph-backup.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket"//'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let data = fs.readFileSync("./data/polymarket-contract-list.json")
|
||||
let response = JSON.parse(data)
|
||||
return response
|
||||
}
|
||||
*/
|
||||
async function fetchAllRootclaims() {
|
||||
// for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let response = await axios
|
||||
|
|
@ -66,9 +58,6 @@ async function fetchAndProcessData() {
|
|||
/* Body */
|
||||
export async function rootclaim() {
|
||||
let results = await fetchAndProcessData();
|
||||
//console.log(JSON.stringify(results, null, 4))
|
||||
// let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
|
||||
// fs.writeFileSync('rootclaim-questions.json', string);
|
||||
await databaseUpsert({ contents: results, group: "rootclaim" });
|
||||
|
||||
console.log("Done");
|
||||
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user