quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Added timestamp + quality indicators

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
NunoSempere 2021-04-07 22:29:21 +02:00
parent 01788da517
commit c83f2a747f
32 changed files with 77571 additions and 17707 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

489
data/givewellopenphil-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

17136
data/metaforecasts.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

1277
data/metaforecasts.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

70499
data/metaforecasts_history.json Normal file
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

0
data/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv → data/old/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv
View File

3099
data/old/givewellopenphil-questions-old-withouttimestampandqualityindicators.json Normal file
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

0
data/givewellopenphil-questions-processed-old-format.json → data/old/givewellopenphil-questions-processed-old-format.json
View File

0
data/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json → data/old/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json
View File

0
data/xrisk-questions-raw-indirect-voice.json → data/old/xrisk-questions-raw-indirect-voice.json
View File

0
data/xrisk-questions-raw.json → data/old/xrisk-questions-raw.json
View File

1802
data/old/xrisk-questions.json Normal file
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

4
data/omen-questions.json
View File

@ -16,7 +16,9 @@
}
],
"description": "",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
}
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
@ -35,6 +37,8 @@
}
],
"description": "",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
}
}
]

274
data/xrisk-questions.json
View File

@ -17,7 +17,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
@ -37,7 +40,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
@ -57,7 +63,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
@ -77,14 +86,17 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"author": "John Leslie (~1996)",
"description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”",
"description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -97,7 +109,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
@ -117,7 +132,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
@ -137,7 +155,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
@ -157,7 +178,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
@ -177,7 +201,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
@ -197,7 +224,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
@ -217,7 +247,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
@ -237,14 +270,17 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)",
"description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
"description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -257,7 +293,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
@ -277,7 +316,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
@ -297,7 +339,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
@ -317,7 +362,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
@ -337,7 +385,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
@ -357,7 +408,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
@ -377,7 +431,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
@ -397,7 +454,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
@ -417,7 +477,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
@ -437,7 +500,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
@ -457,7 +523,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
@ -477,7 +546,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
@ -497,7 +569,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
@ -517,7 +592,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
@ -537,7 +615,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
@ -557,7 +638,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
@ -577,7 +661,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
@ -597,7 +684,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
@ -617,7 +707,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
@ -637,7 +730,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
@ -657,7 +753,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
@ -677,7 +776,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
@ -697,7 +799,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
@ -717,7 +822,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
@ -737,7 +845,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
@ -757,7 +868,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
@ -777,7 +891,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
@ -797,7 +914,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
@ -817,7 +937,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
@ -837,7 +960,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
@ -857,7 +983,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
@ -877,7 +1006,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
@ -897,7 +1029,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
@ -917,7 +1052,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
@ -937,7 +1075,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
@ -957,7 +1098,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
@ -977,7 +1121,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
@ -997,7 +1144,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
@ -1017,7 +1167,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
@ -1037,7 +1190,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
@ -1057,7 +1213,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
@ -1077,7 +1236,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
@ -1097,7 +1259,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
@ -1117,7 +1282,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
@ -1137,7 +1305,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
@ -1157,7 +1328,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
@ -1177,7 +1351,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
@ -1197,7 +1374,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
@ -1217,7 +1397,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
@ -1237,7 +1420,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
@ -1257,7 +1443,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
@ -1277,7 +1466,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
@ -1297,7 +1489,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
@ -1317,7 +1512,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
@ -1337,7 +1535,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
@ -1357,7 +1558,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
@ -1377,7 +1581,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
@ -1397,7 +1604,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
@ -1417,7 +1627,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
@ -1437,7 +1650,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
@ -1457,7 +1673,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
@ -1477,7 +1696,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
@ -1497,7 +1719,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
@ -1517,7 +1742,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
@ -1537,7 +1765,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
@ -1557,7 +1788,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
@ -1577,7 +1811,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
@ -1597,7 +1834,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
@ -1617,7 +1857,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
@ -1637,7 +1880,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
@ -1657,7 +1903,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
@ -1677,7 +1926,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
@ -1697,7 +1949,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
@ -1717,7 +1972,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
@ -1737,7 +1995,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
@ -1757,7 +2018,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
@ -1777,7 +2041,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
@ -1797,6 +2064,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
}
]

3
src/csetforetell-fetch.js
View File

@ -105,10 +105,13 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
let result = {
"description": description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": numforecasts,
"numforecasters": numforecasters,
"stars": calculateStars("CSET-foretell", {numforecasts})
}
}
return result
}

3
src/elicit-fetch.js
View File

@ -70,9 +70,12 @@ function processArray(arrayQuestions) {
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": numforecasts,
"numforecasters": numforecasters,
"stars": calculateStars("Elicit", ({}))
}
})
results.push(standardObj)
}

7
src/estimize-fetch.js
View File

@ -17,7 +17,12 @@ export function estimize(){
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": `A link to Estimize's forecasts for *${companyName}* (sticker symbol ${companyStickerSymbol}). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free`,
"options": [],
"stars": 2//calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": numforecasts,
"numforecasters": numforecasters,
"stars": calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
}
})
results.push(standardObj)
}

3
src/fantasyscotus-fetch.js
View File

@ -84,8 +84,11 @@ async function processData(data) {
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": predictionData.numForecasts,
"stars": calculateStars("FantasySCOTUS", ({}))
}
})
console.log(eventObject)
results.push(eventObject)

3
src/foretold-fetch.js
View File

@ -77,8 +77,11 @@ export async function foretold(){
"platform": "Foretold",
"description": "",
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": question.measurementCount / 2,
"stars": calculateStars("Foretold", ({ }))
}
/*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
address: obj.address*/

3
src/givewellopenphil-fetch.js
View File

@ -45,7 +45,10 @@ async function main() {
"url": url,
"platform": "GiveWell",
"description": description,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", ({})),
}
} // Note: This requires some processing afterwards
console.log(result)
results.push(result)

3
src/goodjudgment-fetch.js
View File

@ -56,7 +56,10 @@ export async function goodjudgment() {
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Good Judgment", ({})),
}
})
results.push(standardObj)
}

6
src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
View File

@ -106,14 +106,16 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
// Calculate the stars
let minProbability = Math.min(...options.map(option => option.probability))
let maxProbability = Math.max(...options.map(option => option.probability))
let stars = calculateStars("Good Judgment Open", ({ numforecasts, minProbability, maxProbability }))
let result = {
"description": description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": numforecasts,
"numforecasters": numforecasters,
"stars": stars,
"stars": calculateStars("Good Judgment Open", ({ numforecasts, minProbability, maxProbability }))
}
}
return result
}

19
src/hypermind-fetch.js
View File

@ -138,11 +138,13 @@ export async function hypermind() {
"title": res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=" + slug,
"platform": "Hypermind",
"options": options,
"description": description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
}
})
})
results1.push(...objs)
}
@ -163,8 +165,9 @@ export async function hypermind() {
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": description,
"options": [],
"Percentage": "none",
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
}
})
})
@ -184,7 +187,9 @@ export async function hypermind() {
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": description,
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
}
})
})
@ -200,7 +205,9 @@ export async function hypermind() {
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": description,
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
}
})
})

11
src/index.js
View File

@ -54,11 +54,12 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = async () => {
let mergedprocessed = merged.map(element => ({...element, optionsstringforsearch: element.options.map(option => option.name).join(", ")}))
writefile(JSON.stringify(mergedprocessed, null, 2), "metaforecasts", "", ".json")
/* Transform into a csv
let preparedforcsv = []
mergedprocessed.forEach(element => {
preparedforcsv.push({
"title": element.title,
"description": element.description,
"description": element.description?element.description.replaceAll("\n", " "):"",
"optionsstringforsearch": element.optionsstringforsearch
})
} )
@ -66,10 +67,18 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = async () => {
let mergedcsv = csvfromjson(preparedforcsv)
writefile(mergedcsv, "metaforecasts", "")
*/
console.log("Done")
}
let addtohistory = () => {
let currentJSON = fs.readFileSync(locationData + "metaforecasts.json")
let historyJSON = fs.readFileSync(locationData + "metaforecasts_history_bootstrap.json")
}
async function whattodo(message,callback){
const rl = readline.createInterface({
input: process.stdin,

7
src/ladbrokes-fetch.js
View File

@ -56,7 +56,6 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
"name":name,
"probability": probability,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
})
return option
})
@ -76,8 +75,12 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
"title": title,
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"description": "",
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Ladbrokes", ({}))
}
})
results.push(obj)
}
@ -109,7 +112,9 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Ladbrokes", ({}))
}
})
results.push(obj)
})

8
src/metaculus-fetch.js
View File

@ -104,16 +104,18 @@ export async function metaculus() {
"title": result.title,
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": options,
"description": description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": result.number_of_predictions,
"stars": calculateStars("Metaculus", ({ numforecasts: result.number_of_predictions })),
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": result.publish_time,
"resolution": result.resolution,
"close_time": result.close_time,
"resolve_time": result.resolve_time
},
"stars": calculateStars("Metaculus", ({ numforecasts: result.number_of_predictions }))
}
//"status": result.status,
//"publish_time": result.publish_time,

5
src/misc/process-forecasts-from-old-givewellopenphil.js
View File

@ -28,10 +28,13 @@ for(let datum of data){
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",//new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": datum["Stars"]
}
})
results.push(result)
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync("../data/givewellopenphil-questions.json", string)
fs.writeFileSync("../data/givewellopenphil-questions-new.json", string)

7
src/misc/process-forecasts-from-old-xrisk.js
View File

@ -33,10 +33,13 @@ ${datum["description"]}` : datum["description"]
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2//datum["stars"]
}
})
results.push(result)
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync("/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions.json", string)
fs.writeFileSync("/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions-new.json", string)

5
src/omen-fetch.js
View File

@ -69,10 +69,13 @@ async function fetch_all() {
"title": data.question.title,
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/" + data.id,
"platform": "Omen",
"options": options,
"description": "",
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Omen", ({}))
}
}
console.log(obj)
results.push(obj)
}

11
src/polymarket-fetch.js
View File

@ -107,11 +107,16 @@ async function fetch_all() {
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": obj.description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": Number(data.tradesQuantity).toFixed(0),
"liquidity": liquidity.toFixed(2),
"tradevolume": tradevolume.toFixed(2),
"stars": calculateStars("Polymarket", ({ liquidity, option: options[0] }))
/*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
address: obj.address*/
}
/*
address: obj.address
*/
}
}
}

6
src/predictit-fetch.js
View File

@ -75,9 +75,13 @@ export async function predictit() {
"title": market["name"],
"url": market.url,
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": options,
"description": description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("PredictIt", ({}))
}
})
console.log(obj)
result.push(obj)

6
src/smarkets-fetch.js
View File

@ -137,10 +137,14 @@ export async function smarkets() {
"title": name,
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/" + market.event_id + market.slug,
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": options,
"description": market.description,
"options": options,
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("Smarkets", ({}))
}
}
//console.log(result)
results.push(result)
}

4
src/williamhill-fetch.js
View File

@ -46,6 +46,8 @@ let processResults = (html) => {
"title": title,
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -101,7 +103,9 @@ let processResults = (html) => {
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": options,
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": calculateStars("WilliamHill", ({}))
}
})
results.push(obj)
}