Added timestamp + quality indicators

data/omen-questions.json

@@ -16,7 +16,9 @@
       }
     ],
     "description": "",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
@@ -35,6 +37,8 @@
       }
     ],
     "description": "",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 1
     }
+  }
 ]

data/xrisk-questions.json

@@ -17,7 +17,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
@@ -37,7 +40,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
@@ -57,7 +63,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
@@ -77,14 +86,17 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
     "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
     "platform": "X-risk estimates",
     "author": "John Leslie (~1996)",
-    "description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”",
+    "description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
@@ -97,7 +109,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
@@ -117,7 +132,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
@@ -137,7 +155,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
@@ -157,7 +178,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
@@ -177,7 +201,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
@@ -197,7 +224,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
@@ -217,7 +247,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
@@ -237,14 +270,17 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
     "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
     "platform": "X-risk estimates",
     "author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)",
-    "description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
+    "description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
     "options": [
       {
         "name": "Yes",
@@ -257,7 +293,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
@@ -277,7 +316,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
@@ -297,7 +339,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
@@ -317,7 +362,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
@@ -337,7 +385,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
@@ -357,7 +408,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
@@ -377,7 +431,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
@@ -397,7 +454,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
@@ -417,7 +477,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential risk from AI",
@@ -437,7 +500,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
@@ -457,7 +523,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
@@ -477,7 +546,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
@@ -497,7 +569,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
@@ -517,7 +592,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
@@ -537,7 +615,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
@@ -557,7 +638,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
@@ -577,7 +661,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
@@ -597,7 +684,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
@@ -617,7 +707,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
@@ -637,7 +730,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
@@ -657,7 +753,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
@@ -677,7 +776,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
@@ -697,7 +799,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
@@ -717,7 +822,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
@@ -737,7 +845,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
@@ -757,7 +868,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
@@ -777,7 +891,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
@@ -797,7 +914,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
@@ -817,7 +937,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
@@ -837,7 +960,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
@@ -857,7 +983,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
@@ -877,7 +1006,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
@@ -897,7 +1029,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
@@ -917,7 +1052,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
@@ -937,7 +1075,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
@@ -957,7 +1098,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
@@ -977,7 +1121,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
@@ -997,7 +1144,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
@@ -1017,7 +1167,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
@@ -1037,7 +1190,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
@@ -1057,7 +1213,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
@@ -1077,7 +1236,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
@@ -1097,7 +1259,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
@@ -1117,7 +1282,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
@@ -1137,7 +1305,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
@@ -1157,7 +1328,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
@@ -1177,7 +1351,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
@@ -1197,7 +1374,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
@@ -1217,7 +1397,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
@@ -1237,7 +1420,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
@@ -1257,7 +1443,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
@@ -1277,7 +1466,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
@@ -1297,7 +1489,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
@@ -1317,7 +1512,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
@@ -1337,7 +1535,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
@@ -1357,7 +1558,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
@@ -1377,7 +1581,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
@@ -1397,7 +1604,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
@@ -1417,7 +1627,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
@@ -1437,7 +1650,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
@@ -1457,7 +1673,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
@@ -1477,7 +1696,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
@@ -1497,7 +1719,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
@@ -1517,7 +1742,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
@@ -1537,7 +1765,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
@@ -1557,7 +1788,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
@@ -1577,7 +1811,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
@@ -1597,7 +1834,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
@@ -1617,7 +1857,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
@@ -1637,7 +1880,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
@@ -1657,7 +1903,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
@@ -1677,7 +1926,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
@@ -1697,7 +1949,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
@@ -1717,7 +1972,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
@@ -1737,7 +1995,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
@@ -1757,7 +2018,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
@@ -1777,7 +2041,10 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
+    }
   },
   {
     "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
@@ -1797,6 +2064,9 @@
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
+    "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": 2
     }
+  }
 ]

src/csetforetell-fetch.js

@@ -105,10 +105,13 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
   let result = {
     "description": description, 
     "options": options,
+    "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": numforecasts,
       "numforecasters": numforecasters,
       "stars": calculateStars("CSET-foretell", {numforecasts})
     }
+  }
   
   return result
 }

src/elicit-fetch.js

@@ -70,9 +70,12 @@ function processArray(arrayQuestions) {
             "type": "PROBABILITY"
           }
         ],
+        "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "numforecasts": numforecasts,
           "numforecasters": numforecasters,
           "stars": calculateStars("Elicit", ({}))
+        }
       })
       results.push(standardObj)
     }

src/estimize-fetch.js

@@ -17,7 +17,12 @@ export function estimize(){
           "platform": "Estimize",
           "description": `A link to Estimize's forecasts for *${companyName}* (sticker symbol ${companyStickerSymbol}). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free`,
           "options": [],
-          "stars": 2//calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
+          "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+          "qualityindicators": {
+            "numforecasts": numforecasts,
+            "numforecasters": numforecasters,
+            "stars": calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
+          }
         })
         results.push(standardObj)
       }

src/fantasyscotus-fetch.js

@@ -84,8 +84,11 @@ async function processData(data) {
                   "type": "PROBABILITY"
                 }
               ],
+        "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "numforecasts": predictionData.numForecasts,
           "stars": calculateStars("FantasySCOTUS", ({}))
+        }
       })
       console.log(eventObject)
       results.push(eventObject)

src/foretold-fetch.js

@@ -77,8 +77,11 @@ export async function foretold(){
           "platform": "Foretold",
           "description": "",
           "options": options,
+          "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+          "qualityindicators": {
             "numforecasts": question.measurementCount / 2,
             "stars": calculateStars("Foretold", ({  }))
+            }
           /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
           tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
           address: obj.address*/

src/givewellopenphil-fetch.js

@@ -45,7 +45,10 @@ async function main() {
       "url": url,
       "platform": "GiveWell",
       "description": description,
+      "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+      "qualityindicators": {
         "stars": calculateStars("GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy", ({})),
+      }
     } // Note: This requires some processing afterwards
     console.log(result)
     results.push(result)

src/goodjudgment-fetch.js

@@ -56,7 +56,10 @@ export async function goodjudgment() {
         "platform": "Good Judgment",
         "description": description,
         "options": options,
+        "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "stars": calculateStars("Good Judgment", ({})),
+        }
       })
       results.push(standardObj)
     }

src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js

@@ -106,14 +106,16 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
   // Calculate the stars
   let minProbability = Math.min(...options.map(option => option.probability))
   let maxProbability = Math.max(...options.map(option => option.probability))
-  let stars = calculateStars("Good Judgment Open", ({ numforecasts, minProbability, maxProbability }))
   
   let result = {
     "description": description,
     "options": options,
+    "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "numforecasts": numforecasts,
       "numforecasters": numforecasters,
-    "stars": stars,
+      "stars": calculateStars("Good Judgment Open", ({ numforecasts, minProbability, maxProbability }))
+    }
   }
   return result
 }

src/hypermind-fetch.js

@@ -138,11 +138,13 @@ export async function hypermind() {
         "title": res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
         "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=" + slug,
         "platform": "Hypermind",
-        "options": options,
         "description": description,
+        "options": options,
+        "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
+        }
       })
-
     })
     results1.push(...objs)
   }
@@ -163,8 +165,9 @@ export async function hypermind() {
       "platform": "Hypermind",
       "description": description,
       "options": [],
-      "Percentage": "none",
+      "qualityindicators": {
-      "stars": 3
+        "stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
+      }
     })
   })
 
@@ -184,7 +187,9 @@ export async function hypermind() {
       "platform": "Hypermind",
       "description": description,
       "options": [],
-      "stars": 3
+      "qualityindicators": {
+        "stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
+      }
     })
   })
 
@@ -200,7 +205,9 @@ export async function hypermind() {
       "platform": "Hypermind",
       "description": description,
       "options": [],
-      "stars": 3
+      "qualityindicators": {
+        "stars": calculateStars("Hypermind", ({})),
+      }
     })
   })
 

src/index.js

@@ -54,11 +54,12 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = async () => {
   let mergedprocessed = merged.map(element => ({...element, optionsstringforsearch: element.options.map(option => option.name).join(", ")}))
   writefile(JSON.stringify(mergedprocessed, null, 2), "metaforecasts", "", ".json")
   
+  /* Transform into a csv 
   let preparedforcsv = []
   mergedprocessed.forEach(element => {
     preparedforcsv.push({
         "title": element.title,
-        "description": element.description,
+        "description": element.description?element.description.replaceAll("\n", " "):"",
         "optionsstringforsearch": element.optionsstringforsearch
     })
   } ) 
@@ -66,10 +67,18 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = async () => {
   
   let mergedcsv = csvfromjson(preparedforcsv)
   writefile(mergedcsv, "metaforecasts", "")
+  */
+
   console.log("Done")
 
 }
 
+let addtohistory = () => {
+  let currentJSON = fs.readFileSync(locationData + "metaforecasts.json")
+  let historyJSON = fs.readFileSync(locationData + "metaforecasts_history_bootstrap.json")
+
+}
+
 async function whattodo(message,callback){
   const rl = readline.createInterface({
     input: process.stdin,

src/ladbrokes-fetch.js

@@ -56,7 +56,6 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
         "name":name,
         "probability": probability,
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
-
       })
       return option
     })
@@ -76,8 +75,12 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
       "title": title,
       "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
       "platform": "Ladbrokes",
+      "description": "",
       "options": options,
+      "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+      "qualityindicators": {
         "stars": calculateStars("Ladbrokes", ({}))
+      }
     })
     results.push(obj)
   }
@@ -109,7 +112,9 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
             "type": "PROBABILITY"
           }
         ],
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "stars": calculateStars("Ladbrokes", ({}))
+        }
       })
       results.push(obj)
     })

src/metaculus-fetch.js

@@ -104,16 +104,18 @@ export async function metaculus() {
           "title": result.title,
           "url": "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
           "platform": "Metaculus",
-          "options": options,
           "description": description,
+          "options": options,
+          "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+          "qualityindicators": {
             "numforecasts": result.number_of_predictions,
-          "stars": calculateStars("Metaculus", ({ numforecasts: result.number_of_predictions })),
             "resolution_data": {
               "publish_time": result.publish_time,
               "resolution": result.resolution,
               "close_time": result.close_time,
               "resolve_time": result.resolve_time                  
-          	
+            },
+            "stars": calculateStars("Metaculus", ({ numforecasts: result.number_of_predictions }))
           }
           //"status": result.status,
           //"publish_time": result.publish_time,

src/misc/process-forecasts-from-old-givewellopenphil.js

@@ -28,10 +28,13 @@ for(let datum of data){
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],            
+    "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",//new Date().toISOString(),
+    "qualityindicators": {
       "stars": datum["Stars"]
+    }
   })
   results.push(result)
 }
 
 let string = JSON.stringify(results,null,  2)
-fs.writeFileSync("../data/givewellopenphil-questions.json", string)
+fs.writeFileSync("../data/givewellopenphil-questions-new.json", string)

src/misc/process-forecasts-from-old-xrisk.js

@@ -33,10 +33,13 @@ ${datum["description"]}` : datum["description"]
         "type": "PROBABILITY"
       }
     ],
-    "stars": 2
+    "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+    "qualityindicators": {
+      "stars": 2//datum["stars"]
+    }
   })
   results.push(result)
 }
 
 let string = JSON.stringify(results,null,  2)
-fs.writeFileSync("/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions.json", string)
+fs.writeFileSync("/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions-new.json", string)

src/omen-fetch.js

@@ -69,10 +69,13 @@ async function fetch_all() {
         "title": data.question.title,
         "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/" + data.id,
         "platform": "Omen",
-        "options": options,
         "description": "",
+        "options": options,
+        "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "stars": calculateStars("Omen", ({}))
         }
+      }
       console.log(obj)
       results.push(obj)
     }

src/polymarket-fetch.js

@@ -107,11 +107,16 @@ async function fetch_all() {
         "platform": "PolyMarket",
         "description": obj.description,
         "options": options,
+        "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+        "qualityindicators": {
           "numforecasts": Number(data.tradesQuantity).toFixed(0),
+          "liquidity": liquidity.toFixed(2),
+          "tradevolume": tradevolume.toFixed(2),
           "stars": calculateStars("Polymarket", ({ liquidity, option: options[0] }))  
-        /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
+        }
-        tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
+        /*
-        address: obj.address*/
+        address: obj.address
+        */
       }
     }
   }

src/predictit-fetch.js

@@ -75,9 +75,13 @@ export async function predictit() {
       "title": market["name"],
       "url": market.url,
       "platform": "PredictIt",
-      "options": options,
       "description": description,
+      "options": options,
+      "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+      "qualityindicators": {
         "stars": calculateStars("PredictIt", ({}))
+      }
+      
     })
     console.log(obj)
     result.push(obj)

src/smarkets-fetch.js

@@ -137,10 +137,14 @@ export async function smarkets() {
       "title": name,
       "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/" + market.event_id + market.slug,
       "platform": "Smarkets",
-      "options": options,
       "description": market.description,
+      "options": options,
+      "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
+      "qualityindicators": {
         "stars": calculateStars("Smarkets", ({}))
       }
+      
+    }
     //console.log(result)
     results.push(result)
   }

src/williamhill-fetch.js

@@ -46,6 +46,8 @@ let processResults = (html) => {
       "title": title,
       "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
       "platform": "WilliamHill",
+      "description": "",
+      "timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
       "options": [
         {
           "name": "Yes",
@@ -101,7 +103,9 @@ let processResults = (html) => {
       "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
       "platform": "WilliamHill",
       "options": options,
+      "qualityindicators": {
         "stars": calculateStars("WilliamHill", ({}))
+      }
     })
     results.push(obj)
   }