chore: Cleanup.
- Deleted foretold community on astralcodexten questions - because now they are managed by Metaculus/Manifold - fixed small mistake for good judgment - recalculated scores for manifold markets - avoid low-quality markets.
This commit is contained in:
parent
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commit
a7c09e14ae
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@ -1,23 +1,53 @@
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import { mongoRead, upsert } from "./mongo-wrapper.js"
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import { mongoRead, upsert } from "./mongo-wrapper.js";
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/* Merge everything */
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let sets = ["astralcodexten", "betfair", "coupcast", "csetforetell", "elicit", /* "estimize" ,*/ "fantasyscotus", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "kalshi", "ladbrokes", "manifoldmarkets", "metaculus", "omen", "polymarket", "predictit", "rootclaim", "smarkets", "wildeford", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
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let suffix = "-questions"
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// let sets = ["astralcodexten", "betfair", "coupcast", "csetforetell", "elicit", /* "estimize" ,*/ "fantasyscotus", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "kalshi", "ladbrokes", "manifoldmarkets", "metaculus", "omen", "polymarket", "predictit", "rootclaim", "smarkets", "wildeford", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
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let sets = [
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"betfair",
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"coupcast",
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"csetforetell",
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"elicit",
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/* "estimize" ,*/ "fantasyscotus",
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"foretold",
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"givewellopenphil",
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"goodjudgment",
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"goodjudmentopen",
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"hypermind",
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"kalshi",
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"ladbrokes",
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"manifoldmarkets",
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"metaculus",
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"omen",
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"polymarket",
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"predictit",
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"rootclaim",
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"smarkets",
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"wildeford",
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"williamhill",
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"xrisk",
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];
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export async function mergeEverythingInner(){
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let merged = []
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for(let set of sets){
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let json = await mongoRead(set+suffix)
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console.log(`${set} has ${json.length} questions\n`)
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merged = merged.concat(json)
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let suffix = "-questions";
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export async function mergeEverythingInner() {
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let merged = [];
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for (let set of sets) {
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let json = await mongoRead(set + suffix);
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console.log(`${set} has ${json.length} questions\n`);
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merged = merged.concat(json);
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}
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let mergedprocessed = merged.map(element => ({...element, optionsstringforsearch: element.options.map(option => option.name).join(", ")}))
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console.log(`In total, there are ${mergedprocessed.length} questions`)
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return mergedprocessed
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let mergedprocessed = merged.map((element) => ({
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...element,
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optionsstringforsearch: element.options
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.map((option) => option.name)
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.join(", "),
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}));
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console.log(`In total, there are ${mergedprocessed.length} questions`);
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return mergedprocessed;
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}
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export async function mergeEverything(){
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let merged = await mergeEverythingInner()
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await upsert( merged,"metaforecasts")
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console.log("Done")
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export async function mergeEverything() {
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let merged = await mergeEverythingInner();
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await upsert(merged, "metaforecasts");
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console.log("Done");
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}
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@ -1,321 +1,333 @@
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export function getStarSymbols(numstars) {
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let stars = "★★☆☆☆"
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switch (numstars) {
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case 0:
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stars = "☆☆☆☆☆"
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break;
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case 1:
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stars = "★☆☆☆☆"
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break;
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case 2:
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stars = "★★☆☆☆"
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break;
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case 3:
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stars = "★★★☆☆"
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break;
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case 4:
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stars = "★★★★☆"
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break;
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case 5:
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stars = "★★★★★"
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break;
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default:
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stars = "★★☆☆☆"
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}
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return (stars)
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let stars = "★★☆☆☆";
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switch (numstars) {
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case 0:
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stars = "☆☆☆☆☆";
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break;
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case 1:
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stars = "★☆☆☆☆";
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break;
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case 2:
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stars = "★★☆☆☆";
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break;
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case 3:
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stars = "★★★☆☆";
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break;
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case 4:
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stars = "★★★★☆";
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break;
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case 5:
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stars = "★★★★★";
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break;
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default:
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stars = "★★☆☆☆";
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}
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return stars;
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}
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let average = array => array.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / (array.length)
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let average = (array) => array.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / array.length;
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function calculateStarsAstralCodexTen(data) {
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let nuno = data => 3
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 3;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsBetfair(data) {
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let nuno = data => data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : (data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2)
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let eli = (data) => data.volume > 10000 ? null : null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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// Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
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if(data.option &&
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(data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
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){
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starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1
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}
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let nuno = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2);
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let eli = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? null : null);
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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// Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
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if (
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data.option &&
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(data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
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) {
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starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
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}
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsCoupCast(data) {
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let nuno = (data) => 3
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 3;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsCSETForetell(data) {
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let nuno = (data) => data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2
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let eli = (data) => 3
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let misha = (data) => 2
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => (data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2);
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let eli = (data) => 3;
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let misha = (data) => 2;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsElicit(data) {
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let nuno = data => 1
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 1;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsEstimize(data) {
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let nuno = data => 2
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 2;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsForetold(data) {
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let nuno = data => 2
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 2;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data) {
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let nuno = data => 2
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 2;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsGoodJudment(data) {
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let nuno = data => 4
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let eli = (data) => 4
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let misha = (data) => 3.5
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 4;
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let eli = (data) => 4;
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let misha = (data) => 3.5;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsGoodJudmentOpen(data) {
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let nuno = data => data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2
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let eli = (data) => 3
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let misha = (data) => (data.minProbability > 0.1 || data.maxProbability < 0.9) ? 3.1 : 2.5
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => (data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2);
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let eli = (data) => 3;
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let misha = (data) =>
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data.minProbability > 0.1 || data.maxProbability < 0.9 ? 3.1 : 2.5;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsHypermind(data) {
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let nuno = data => 3
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 3;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsKalshi(data) {
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let nuno = data => data.interest > 500 && data.shares_volume > 10000 ? 4 : (data.shares_volume > 2000 ? 3 : 2)
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// let eli = (data) => data.interest > 10000 ? 5 : 4
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// let misha = (data) => 4
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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// Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
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if(data.option &&
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(data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
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){
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starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1
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}
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let nuno = (data) =>
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data.interest > 500 && data.shares_volume > 10000
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? 4
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: data.shares_volume > 2000
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? 3
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: 2;
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// let eli = (data) => data.interest > 10000 ? 5 : 4
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// let misha = (data) => 4
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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// Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
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if (
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data.option &&
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(data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
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) {
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starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
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}
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsLadbrokes(data) {
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let nuno = data => 2
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 2;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsManifoldMarkets(data) {
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let nuno = data => 2
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) =>
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data.volume7Days > 500 || (data.pool > 500 && data.volume7Days > 200)
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? 2
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: 1;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsMetaculus(data) {
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let nuno = data => data.numforecasts > 300 ? 4 : (data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2)
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let eli = (data) => 3
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let misha = (data) => 3
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) =>
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data.numforecasts > 300 ? 4 : data.numforecasts > 100 ? 3 : 2;
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let eli = (data) => 3;
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let misha = (data) => 3;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsOmen(data) {
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let nuno = data => 1
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let eli = (data) => null
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let misha = (data) => null
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let nuno = (data) => 1;
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let eli = (data) => null;
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let misha = (data) => null;
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsPolymarket(data) {
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let nuno = data => data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : (data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2)
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// let eli = (data) => data.liquidity > 10000 ? 5 : 4
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// let misha = (data) => 4
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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// Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
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if(data.option &&
|
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(data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
|
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){
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starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1
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}
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let nuno = (data) => (data.volume > 10000 ? 4 : data.volume > 1000 ? 3 : 2);
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// let eli = (data) => data.liquidity > 10000 ? 5 : 4
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// let misha = (data) => 4
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let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
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// Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10%
|
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if (
|
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data.option &&
|
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(data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9)
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) {
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starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1;
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}
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|
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
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return starsInteger
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let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
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return starsInteger;
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}
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function calculateStarsPredictIt(data) {
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let nuno = data => 3
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let eli = (data) => 3.5
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let misha = (data) => 2.5
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
|
||||
return starsInteger
|
||||
let nuno = (data) => 3;
|
||||
let eli = (data) => 3.5;
|
||||
let misha = (data) => 2.5;
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]);
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
return starsInteger;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function calculateStarsRootclaim(data) {
|
||||
let nuno = data => 4
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)/*, eli(data), misha(data)*/])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
|
||||
return starsInteger
|
||||
let nuno = (data) => 4;
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null;
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null;
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data) /*, eli(data), misha(data)*/]);
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
return starsInteger;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function calculateStarsSmarkets(data) {
|
||||
let nuno = data => 2
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
|
||||
return starsInteger
|
||||
let nuno = (data) => 2;
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null;
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null;
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
return starsInteger;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
function calculateStarsWildeford(data) {
|
||||
let nuno = data => 3
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
|
||||
return starsInteger
|
||||
let nuno = (data) => 3;
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null;
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null;
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
return starsInteger;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function calculateStarsWilliamHill(data) {
|
||||
let nuno = data => 2
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]) //, eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal)
|
||||
return starsInteger
|
||||
let nuno = (data) => 2;
|
||||
let eli = (data) => null;
|
||||
let misha = (data) => null;
|
||||
let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data)]); //, eli(data), misha(data)])
|
||||
let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal);
|
||||
return starsInteger;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function calculateStars(platform, data) {
|
||||
let stars = 2;
|
||||
switch (platform) {
|
||||
case "AstralCodexTen":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsAstralCodexTen(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Betfair":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsBetfair(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "CoupCast":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsCoupCast(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "CSET-foretell":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsCSETForetell(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Elicit":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsElicit(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Estimize":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsEstimize(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Foretold":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsForetold(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Good Judgment":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsGoodJudment(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Good Judgment Open":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsGoodJudmentOpen(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Hypermind":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsHypermind(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Kalshi":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsKalshi(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Ladbrokes":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsLadbrokes(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Manifold Markets":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsManifoldMarkets(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Metaculus":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsMetaculus(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Omen":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsOmen(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Polymarket":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsPolymarket(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "PredictIt":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsPredictIt(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Rootclaim":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsRootclaim(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Smarkets":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsSmarkets(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Peter Wildeford":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsWildeford(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "WilliamHill":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsWilliamHill(data)
|
||||
break;
|
||||
default:
|
||||
stars = 2
|
||||
}
|
||||
return stars
|
||||
let stars = 2;
|
||||
switch (platform) {
|
||||
case "AstralCodexTen":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsAstralCodexTen(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Betfair":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsBetfair(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "CoupCast":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsCoupCast(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "CSET-foretell":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsCSETForetell(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Elicit":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsElicit(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Estimize":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsEstimize(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Foretold":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsForetold(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsGiveWellOpenPhil(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Good Judgment":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsGoodJudment(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Good Judgment Open":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsGoodJudmentOpen(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Hypermind":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsHypermind(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Kalshi":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsKalshi(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Ladbrokes":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsLadbrokes(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Manifold Markets":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsManifoldMarkets(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Metaculus":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsMetaculus(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Omen":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsOmen(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Polymarket":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsPolymarket(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "PredictIt":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsPredictIt(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Rootclaim":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsRootclaim(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Smarkets":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsSmarkets(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "Peter Wildeford":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsWildeford(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case "WilliamHill":
|
||||
stars = calculateStarsWilliamHill(data);
|
||||
break;
|
||||
default:
|
||||
stars = 2;
|
||||
}
|
||||
return stars;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user