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"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0493,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.21289999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.34159999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","44",2 ","45",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","78",2 ","78",2
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","127",3 ","128",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.4235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.2173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.07150000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.4235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.2173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.07150000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
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"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4487,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4487,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
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","113",3 ","113",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3479,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.15109999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3479,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.15109999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","91",2 ","91",2
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.046900000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.19190000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.0483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.32880000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","116",3 ","117",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0492,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.33649999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.2754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0492,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.33649999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.2754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","41",2 ","41",2
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.41840000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.41840000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
@ -33,8 +33,8 @@
","185",3 ","185",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1441,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.20149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1441,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.20149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","174",3 ","174",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1553,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.1593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1568,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.3038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.1588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","111",3 ","112",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","155",3 ","155",3
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0673,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14029999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.21280000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3136,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0673,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14029999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.21280000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3136,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field

1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.0493,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.2133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.297,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.0484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.099,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.21289999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.34159999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.2981,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 44 45 2
3 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World 78 2
4 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. 127 128 3
5 How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.4235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.2173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.07150000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 39 2
6 How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1378,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.4487,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.3048,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.0774,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 35 2
7 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.14679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.3135,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.3201,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.1759,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.0436,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." 113 3
8 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.053200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.2118,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.3479,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.2361,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.15109999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 91 2
9 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.046900000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.3326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.19190000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.1268,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.0483,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3072,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.32880000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.1257,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 116 117 3
10 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.0492,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.1092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.2296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.33649999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.2754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 41 2
13 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** 105 3
14 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.33130000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.376,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.2927,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry 89 2
15 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than 20%","probability":0.0974,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 25%, inclusive","probability":0.1808,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%","probability":0.3563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%","probability":0.2421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 35%","probability":0.1234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 59 2
16 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** 262 3
17 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.043,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.11289999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.2396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** 185 3
18 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.1441,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.20149999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.2724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2605,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.1216,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 174 3
19 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.1553,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.305,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.1593,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0681,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.1568,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.3038,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.1588,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 111 112 3
20 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 155 3
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@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $470 billion", "name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.0493, "probability": 0.0518,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1, "probability": 0.10210000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.2133, "probability": 0.2065,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3403, "probability": 0.34850000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $680 billion", "name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.297, "probability": 0.2912,
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} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "44", "numforecasts": "50",
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}, },
{ {
@ -43,17 +43,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.26, "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
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{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
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], ],
"numforecasts": "78", "numforecasts": "81",
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}, },
{ {
@ -73,8 +73,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "127", "numforecasts": "130",
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"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -85,32 +85,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $40 billion", "name": "Less than $40 billion",
"probability": 0.0554, "probability": 0.0537,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2323, "probability": 0.2322,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
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{ {
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
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{ {
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion", "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
"probability": 0.2173, "probability": 0.2148,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $100 billion", "name": "More than $100 billion",
"probability": 0.07150000000000001, "probability": 0.0748,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "39", "numforecasts": "41",
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"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -121,32 +121,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $13 billion", "name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.0313, "probability": 0.0358,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1378, "probability": 0.1331,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.4487, "probability": 0.4219,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.3048, "probability": 0.3235,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $25 billion", "name": "More than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.0774, "probability": 0.0858,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "35", "numforecasts": "39",
"numforecasters": "33", "numforecasters": "37",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -157,32 +157,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than -0.25", "name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.14679999999999999, "probability": 0.15109999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3135, "probability": 0.3159,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.3201, "probability": 0.3152,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
"probability": 0.1759, "probability": 0.171,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.5", "name": "More than 0.5",
"probability": 0.0436, "probability": 0.046799999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "113", "numforecasts": "116",
"numforecasters": "100", "numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -193,32 +193,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $200 million", "name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0.053200000000000004, "probability": 0.051500000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2118, "probability": 0.2144,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
"probability": 0.3479, "probability": 0.34950000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $650 million", "name": "More than $650 million",
"probability": 0.15109999999999998, "probability": 0.14859999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "91", "numforecasts": "95",
"numforecasters": "82", "numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -229,32 +229,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $30 million", "name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.046900000000000004, "probability": 0.0483,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3019, "probability": 0.3072,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.3326, "probability": 0.32880000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
"probability": 0.19190000000000002, "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $150 million", "name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.1268, "probability": 0.1257,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "116", "numforecasts": "117",
"numforecasters": "108", "numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -301,32 +301,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 800", "name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.1381, "probability": 0.1321,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000", "name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.41840000000000005, "probability": 0.41850000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.3, "probability": 0.3043,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.1119, "probability": 0.1125,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 100,000", "name": "More than 100,000",
"probability": 0.0316, "probability": 0.0325,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "111", "numforecasts": "116",
"numforecasters": "93", "numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -337,32 +337,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 0.45%", "name": "Less than 0.45%",
"probability": 0.044500000000000005, "probability": 0.0478,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1726, "probability": 0.17190000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%", "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
"probability": 0.2923, "probability": 0.2956,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2394, "probability": 0.23809999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 1.2%", "name": "More than 1.2%",
"probability": 0.25129999999999997, "probability": 0.2466,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "47", "numforecasts": "48",
"numforecasters": "45", "numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -373,17 +373,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48, "probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.52, "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "105", "numforecasts": "109",
"numforecasters": "74", "numforecasters": "78",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -394,22 +394,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Zero", "name": "Zero",
"probability": 0.33130000000000004, "probability": 0.33520000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "One", "name": "One",
"probability": 0.376, "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Two or more", "name": "Two or more",
"probability": 0.2927, "probability": 0.2948,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "89", "numforecasts": "91",
"numforecasters": "79", "numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -420,32 +420,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 20%", "name": "Less than 20%",
"probability": 0.0974, "probability": 0.0965,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive", "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1808, "probability": 0.17550000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%", "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
"probability": 0.3563, "probability": 0.36229999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%", "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
"probability": 0.2421, "probability": 0.2483,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 35%", "name": "More than 35%",
"probability": 0.1234, "probability": 0.1175,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "59", "numforecasts": "62",
"numforecasters": "55", "numforecasters": "58",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -465,8 +465,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "262", "numforecasts": "265",
"numforecasters": "175", "numforecasters": "176",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -477,27 +477,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before February 17, 2021", "name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.043, "probability": 0.0409,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.11289999999999999, "probability": 0.11259999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.2396, "probability": 0.2395,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "After November 17, 2021", "name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6045, "probability": 0.607,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "185", "numforecasts": "191",
"numforecasters": "121", "numforecasters": "125",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -508,32 +508,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 59%", "name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.1441, "probability": 0.1354,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.20149999999999998, "probability": 0.19829999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.2724, "probability": 0.2688,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.2605, "probability": 0.2692,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 80%", "name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.1216, "probability": 0.1284,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "174", "numforecasts": "181",
"numforecasters": "149", "numforecasters": "152",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -544,31 +544,31 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 15%", "name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.0679, "probability": 0.0682,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1553, "probability": 0.1582,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%", "name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
"probability": 0.3125, "probability": 0.3118,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.305, "probability": 0.3031,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 21%", "name": "More than 21%",
"probability": 0.1593, "probability": 0.15869999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "111", "numforecasts": "113",
"numforecasters": "98", "numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
@ -589,8 +589,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "155", "numforecasts": "158",
"numforecasters": "120", "numforecasters": "123",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -601,32 +601,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 1.5%", "name": "Less than 1.5%",
"probability": 0.0673, "probability": 0.0676,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.14029999999999998, "probability": 0.1402,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.21280000000000002, "probability": 0.2122,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.266, "probability": 0.2669,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 6%", "name": "More than 6%",
"probability": 0.3136, "probability": 0.3131,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "185", "numforecasts": "187",
"numforecasters": "134", "numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -637,32 +637,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 675", "name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.3826, "probability": 0.41240000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive", "name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2993, "probability": 0.2876,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825", "name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.1761, "probability": 0.163,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900", "name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.09630000000000001, "probability": 0.09300000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 900", "name": "More than 900",
"probability": 0.045700000000000005, "probability": 0.043899999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "105", "numforecasts": "110",
"numforecasters": "66", "numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
} }
] ]

7512
data/elicit-questions.json
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38
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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@ -7,17 +7,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 July 2021", "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.18, "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.76, "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.05, "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -147,7 +147,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.98, "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -162,7 +162,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -181,12 +181,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.83, "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.17, "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -215,22 +215,22 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.51, "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.43, "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 November 2021", "name": "Not before 1 November 2021",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -249,7 +249,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.97, "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -259,7 +259,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -278,22 +278,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 July 2021", "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.31, "probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.51, "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -423,7 +423,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.98, "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -438,7 +438,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

919
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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134
data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04, "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.96, "probability": 0.923076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.71, "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.29, "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -44,12 +44,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes, more than 121", "name": "Yes, more than 121",
"probability": 0.35238095238095235, "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No, not more than 121", "name": "No, not more than 121",
"probability": 0.6476190476190475, "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -63,12 +63,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Xavier Bertrand", "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
"name": "Marine Le Pen", "name": "Marine Le Pen",
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
"name": "Another woman", "name": "Another woman",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another man", "name": "Another man",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -175,12 +175,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
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{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -218,17 +218,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
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}, },
{ {
"name": "Japan", "name": "Japan",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Same medals count", "name": "Same medals count",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "March 2021", "name": "March 2021",
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -296,12 +296,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -315,22 +315,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
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{ {
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{ {
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}, },
{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -344,17 +344,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "> 148 (more than currently)", "name": "> 148 (more than currently)",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "128 (absolute majority) to 148 ", "name": "128 (absolute majority) to 148 ",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "< 128", "name": "< 128",
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"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -513,27 +513,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
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}, },
{ {
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{ {
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{ {
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{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -595,32 +595,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
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}, },
{ {
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{ {
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}, },
{ {
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{ {
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}, },
{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -634,27 +634,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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{ {
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{ {
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{ {
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}, },
{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -668,22 +668,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
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{ {
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{ {
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{ {
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} }
], ],
@ -697,22 +697,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.7641509433962264, "probability": 0.7619047619047619,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.04716981132075472, "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.07547169811320754, "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.11320754716981131, "probability": 0.11428571428571427,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -769,12 +769,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "≥ 6,000", "name": "≥ 6,000",
"probability": 0.8571428571428571, "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "≤ 5,000", "name": "≤ 5,000",
"probability": 0.14285714285714285, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -807,12 +807,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89, "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.11, "probability": 0.1089108910891089,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

14160
data/metaculus-questions.json
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File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

42
data/metaforecasts.json
View File

@ -41693,32 +41693,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $470 billion", "name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.0493, "probability": 0.0484,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1, "probability": 0.099,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.2133, "probability": 0.21289999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3403, "probability": 0.34159999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $680 billion", "name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.297, "probability": 0.2981,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "44", "numforecasts": "45",
"numforecasters": "43", "numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2, "stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion"
}, },
@ -41761,8 +41761,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "127", "numforecasts": "128",
"numforecasters": "108", "numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3, "stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
}, },
@ -41922,32 +41922,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $30 million", "name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.046900000000000004, "probability": 0.0483,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3019, "probability": 0.3072,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.3326, "probability": 0.32880000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
"probability": 0.19190000000000002, "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $150 million", "name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.1268, "probability": 0.1257,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "116", "numforecasts": "117",
"numforecasters": "108", "numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3, "stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million"
}, },
@ -42247,12 +42247,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 15%", "name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.0679, "probability": 0.0681,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1553, "probability": 0.1568,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -42262,16 +42262,16 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.305, "probability": 0.3038,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 21%", "name": "More than 21%",
"probability": 0.1593, "probability": 0.1588,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "111", "numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasters": "98", "numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3, "stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%" "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%"

4
data/omen-questions.json
View File

@ -44,12 +44,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.40138120377998826, "probability": 0.30016535470057903,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.5986187962200118, "probability": 0.699834645299421,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

402
data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -1,62 +1,22 @@
[ [
{ {
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04362323410844767939963177518202151", "probability": "0.4747596824714982987645226857825057",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9563767658915523206003682248179785", "probability": "0.5252403175285017012354773142174943",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "102", "numforecasts": "24",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9013748586414486533130605654885246",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.0986251413585513466869394345114754",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "723",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01456986683448128899201154478899746",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9854301331655187110079884552110025",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "157",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -67,16 +27,67 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5429675010103772436429096649505996", "probability": "0.3599518973738807357714468587396873",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.4570324989896227563570903350494004", "probability": "0.6400481026261192642285531412603127",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "392", "numforecasts": "483",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9006907275214002116819108602514002",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.09930927247859978831808913974859976",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "726",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9472111059794047642143098718776742",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.05278889402059523578569012812232582",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "927",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -87,56 +98,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1047586563328496070788850040024748", "probability": "0.08602343324392723872247252157153729",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.8952413436671503929211149959975252", "probability": "0.9139765667560727612775274784284627",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "91", "numforecasts": "98",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.945411013497345277834355815925536",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.05458898650265472216564418407446405",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "852",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1000088021372956222173337235615067",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8999911978627043777826662764384933",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "66",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -147,16 +118,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01479126561756588071986562671041005", "probability": "0.01356556579834193356187740697112239",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9852087343824341192801343732895899", "probability": "0.9864344342016580664381225930288776",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "3364", "numforecasts": "3437",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -167,16 +138,56 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9667695168191735773339115589371309", "probability": "0.9950419005145640380044067953452461",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.03323048318082642266608844106286906", "probability": "0.00495809948543596199559320465475387",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "618", "numforecasts": "640",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1182045588380736017131550800622118",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8817954411619263982868449199377882",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "17",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4826623178647927182117863416542698",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5173376821352072817882136583457302",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "143",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -187,57 +198,57 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3923681823134877529676620655329725", "probability": "0.3913458169230817418771462098445261",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.6076318176865122470323379344670275", "probability": "0.6086541830769182581228537901554739",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "19", "numforecasts": "26",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", "title": "Will Beeple's \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\" sell for more than $20 million in its Christie's auction?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-beeple-s-everydays-the-first-5000-days-sell-for-more-than-20-million-in-its-christie-s-auction",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n", "description": "This is a market on whether the final sale price for Beeple’s \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\", currently on auction at Christie's, will be above $20 million. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final hammer price of the auction is greater than $20 million USD and the sale is confirmed as successful, and “No” otherwise”. The auction is being conducted by Christie's and is scheduled to take place from February 25th to March 11th. In the event the auction is postponed, resolution of this market will be delayed accordingly. If the auction is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.45869502016622486223273049350794", "probability": "0.7677266271891552967524099455639778",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.54130497983377513776726950649206", "probability": "0.2322733728108447032475900544360222",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "131", "numforecasts": "58",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5612835878784322639229718937535726", "probability": "0.633847200283777309202593033020977",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.4387164121215677360770281062464274", "probability": "0.366152799716222690797406966979023",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "2", "numforecasts": "65",
"stars": 3 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?",
@ -247,16 +258,56 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3506373749139563440709149225354222", "probability": "0.4031862808226497473480395855147911",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.6493626250860436559290850774645778", "probability": "0.5968137191773502526519604144852089",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "426", "numforecasts": "556",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Beeple's \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\" sell for more than $10 million in its Christie's auction?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-beeple-s-everydays-the-first-5000-days-sell-for-more-than-10-million-in-its-christie-s-auction",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the final sale price for Beeple’s \"Everydays: The First 5000 Days\", currently on auction at Christie's, will be above $10 million. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the final hammer price of the auction is greater than $10 million USD and the sale is confirmed as successful, and “No” otherwise”. The auction is being conducted by Christie's and is scheduled to take place from February 25th to March 11th. In the event the auction is postponed, resolution of this market will be delayed accordingly. If the auction is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9979108694248703831222352764505788",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.002089130575129616877764723549421245",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "285",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3912732160707983222341532945443109",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6087267839292016777658467054556891",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "53",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -267,16 +318,101 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.140894399141350354152909901245227", "probability": "0.09461066955581347935321630177276889",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.859105600858649645847090098754773", "probability": "0.9053893304441865206467836982272311",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "247", "numforecasts": "266",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.3698748876628675851571800738370197",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.3930984910937624151044067952705361",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
"probability": "0.2370266212433699997384131308924442",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "29",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5874473321433342642042382446241169",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4125526678566657357957617553758831",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "325",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will daily CO2 emissions be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-co2-emissions-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether CO2 emissions will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average CO2 emissions are greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5684059800248149446239868478670666",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4315940199751850553760131521329334",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "21",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6427574213385116975632521268689137",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3572425786614883024367478731310863",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1673",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -287,36 +423,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05284697941811101448356581329694619", "probability": "0.06440130798962022405449447402665096",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9471530205818889855164341867030538", "probability": "0.935598692010379775945505525973349",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "49", "numforecasts": "55",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9012705611557196906805184754055062",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.09872943884428030931948152459449382",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "912",
"stars": 4
} }
] ]

1235
data/predictit-questions.json
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276
data/smarkets-questions.json
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@ -387,32 +387,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn", "name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.014525383106979447, "probability": 0.014837895986349133,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Nigel Farage", "name": "Nigel Farage",
"probability": 0.00762582613116421, "probability": 0.007789895392833295,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jo Swinson", "name": "Jo Swinson",
"probability": 0.08642602948652771, "probability": 0.08828548111877735,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Keir Starmer", "name": "Keir Starmer",
"probability": 0.14525383106979448, "probability": 0.14266636990874693,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey", "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
"probability": 0.010385648921490303, "probability": 0.01060909563023963,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Sajid Javid", "name": "Sajid Javid",
"probability": 0.02418476287312078, "probability": 0.02470509681727131,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -422,7 +422,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Dominic Raab", "name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0.04038056503740286, "probability": 0.041249350842050586,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -432,17 +432,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
"probability": 0.02418476287312078, "probability": 0.02470509681727131,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rory Stewart", "name": "Rory Stewart",
"probability": 0.0157600406710727, "probability": 0.01609911714518881,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Amber Rudd", "name": "Amber Rudd",
"probability": 0.021352313167259787, "probability": 0.021811707099933225,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -457,7 +457,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Michael Gove", "name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.05585009804633598, "probability": 0.041249350842050586,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -467,17 +467,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Ruth Davidson", "name": "Ruth Davidson",
"probability": 0.02019028251870143, "probability": 0.020624675421025293,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Tom Watson", "name": "Tom Watson",
"probability": 0.0157600406710727, "probability": 0.01609911714518881,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Yvette Cooper", "name": "Yvette Cooper",
"probability": 0.027961362480935437, "probability": 0.028562949773722084,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -497,7 +497,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jeremy Hunt", "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
"probability": 0.06601786622122159, "probability": 0.0674382372579568,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -507,17 +507,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Lisa Nandy", "name": "Lisa Nandy",
"probability": 0.03631345776744862, "probability": 0.037094739965872835,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Liz Truss", "name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.03457041179461108, "probability": 0.03531419244751094,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Priti Patel", "name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.03457041179461108, "probability": 0.03531419244751094,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -527,22 +527,22 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Ken Clarke", "name": "Ken Clarke",
"probability": 0.04401191081414772, "probability": 0.04495882483863787,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Harriet Harman", "name": "Harriet Harman",
"probability": 0.007262691553489724, "probability": 0.007418947993174566,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Margaret Beckett", "name": "Margaret Beckett",
"probability": 0.05381654441135885, "probability": 0.05497440462942354,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Rishi Sunak", "name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.21359575858813276, "probability": 0.21819126047926402,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -1273,41 +1273,41 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Sadiq Khan", "name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.9310619645347681, "probability": 0.9347869573914784,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Shaun Bailey", "name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.029288702928870303, "probability": 0.026305261052210448,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Siân Berry", "name": "Siân Berry",
"probability": 0.0009962143853357245, "probability": 0.0010002000400080018,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"probability": 0.00009962143853357247, "probability": 0.00010002000400080019,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Brian Rose", "name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.035564853556485365, "probability": 0.03570714142828566,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Mandu Reid", "name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.0009962143853357245, "probability": 0.0010002000400080018,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Luisa Porritt", "name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0.0009962143853357245, "probability": 0.00010002000400080019,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Laurence Fox", "name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.0009962143853357245, "probability": 0.0010002000400080018,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1388,22 +1388,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "SNP", "name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.9126792031279092, "probability": 0.915064401717379,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Conservative", "name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.016942841184137032, "probability": 0.01437371663244353,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Labour", "name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.01861850679575498, "probability": 0.01866716445771887,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Liberal Democrats", "name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.05175944889219884, "probability": 0.05189471719245845,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1446,12 +1446,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Conservative", "name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5753522382735866, "probability": 0.5932000683410217,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Labour", "name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.42464776172641344, "probability": 0.40679993165897826,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1865,12 +1865,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6425446937999238, "probability": 0.6512014065247119,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.3574553062000761, "probability": 0.3487985934752882,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1951,12 +1951,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.526335733232285, "probability": 0.5384764489242101,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
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@ -2069,57 +2069,57 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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{ {
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{ {
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{ {
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{ {
@ -2144,7 +2144,7 @@
}, },
{ {
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{ {
@ -2154,7 +2154,7 @@
}, },
{ {
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@ -2168,47 +2168,47 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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{ {
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@ -2218,7 +2218,7 @@
}, },
{ {
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@ -2248,7 +2248,7 @@
}, },
{ {
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@ -2268,7 +2268,7 @@
}, },
{ {
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@ -2288,7 +2288,7 @@
}, },
{ {
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{ {
@ -2317,7 +2317,7 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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@ -2337,12 +2337,12 @@
}, },
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@ -2406,60 +2406,6 @@
"description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?", "description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",
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{
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{
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{ {
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@ -2637,17 +2583,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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@ -2661,22 +2607,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
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@ -2690,17 +2636,17 @@
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@ -2733,12 +2679,12 @@
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@ -2752,12 +2698,12 @@
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@ -2771,32 +2717,32 @@
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@ -2810,32 +2756,32 @@
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@ -2868,12 +2814,12 @@
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@ -3040,12 +2986,12 @@
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@ -3078,27 +3024,27 @@
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@ -3108,7 +3054,7 @@
}, },
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@ -3213,12 +3159,12 @@
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@ -3540,12 +3486,12 @@
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@ -3855,12 +3801,12 @@
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